+$366 · +3.7%
- Bets
- 33
- Record
- 15-18
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 1.5%
Full Kelly benchmark $10,107 · tracked $418 on $5,093 settled paper stake · +8.2% ROI
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
70 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
4509 games unified from 11636 stored model snapshots in the rolling 90-day window.
Games4509
Settled3566
First edge-1.3%
Pregame edge-1.1%
Average CLV-1.1%
Totals CLV-1.4%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewersevt_12a95bbnf79a9a468f158Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Diego Padres +187Model 41.4% · Market 34.8%Edge +6.6% · Full Kelly 10.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Diego Padres +178Model 41.4% · Market 36.0%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 8.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.1%+187 → +178Logit 0.049 | 43 model points |
| San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewersevt_12a95bbnf79a9a468f158Starts | TotalOpening line 7Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7 -102Model 50.5% · Market 50.5%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7 -109Model 50.5% · Market 52.1%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.6%-102 → -109Logit 0.066 | 43 model points |
| New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Raysevt_12a95bbnfc6120869b543Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +109Model 49.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +119Model 49.3% · Market 45.7%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 6.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.2%+109 → +119Logit -0.088 | 43 model points |
| New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Raysevt_12a95bbnfc6120869b543Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Yankees +116Model 46.7% · Market 46.3%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Yankees +116Model 46.7% · Market 46.3%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+116 → +116Logit 0.000 | 43 model points |
| Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_12a95bbnff6de4e65ca7dStarts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -110Model 51.6% · Market 52.4%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 -108Model 51.3% · Market 51.9%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%-110 → -108Logit -0.018 | 43 model points |
| Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_12a95bbnff6de4e65ca7dStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAtlanta Braves +169Model 42.9% · Market 37.2%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 9.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAtlanta Braves +177Model 42.9% · Market 36.1%Edge +6.8% · Full Kelly 10.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%+169 → +177Logit -0.046 | 43 model points |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_12a95bbnfc6c3a720428bStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago White Sox +130Model 46.3% · Market 43.5%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago White Sox +124Model 46.3% · Market 44.6%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.2%+130 → +124Logit 0.047 | 43 model points |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_12a95bbnfc6c3a720428bStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +109Model 49.1% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +114Model 49.1% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%+109 → +114Logit -0.045 | 43 model points |
| Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padresevt_12a8v0yb07c7e40d37c5fStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Diego Padres -116Model 50.0% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago Cubs +101Model 49.0% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → +101 | -1 model points |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8v0yb07bcac3e5d7faStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +152Model 28.5% · Market 40.2%Edge -11.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +146Model 28.5% · Market 40.7%Edge -12.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.5%+152 → +146Logit 0.020 | 3 model points |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8v0yb07bcac3e5d7faStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 91.7% · Market 88.7%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 26.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 8.3% · Market 13.8%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 5 model points |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8v0yb07bcac3e5d7faStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 28.6% · Market 18.0%Edge +10.6% · Full Kelly 12.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 71.4% · Market 84.9%Edge -13.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 5 model points |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8v0yb07bcac3e5d7faStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassOver 5.5 -263Model 78.5% · Market 72.5%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 22.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +218Model 21.5% · Market 31.4%Edge -10.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 5 model points |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8v0yb07bcac3e5d7faStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 12.7% · Market 20.1%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -489Model 87.3% · Market 83.0%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 25.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 5 model points |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8v0yb07bcac3e5d7faStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 8.5 -148Model 46.6% · Market 60.2%Edge -13.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +134Model 53.4% · Market 43.2%Edge +10.2% · Full Kelly 18.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 5 model points |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8v0yb07bcac3e5d7faStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -251Model 56.6% · Market 71.5%Edge -15.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +208Model 43.4% · Market 32.5%Edge +11.0% · Full Kelly 16.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 5 model points |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8v0yb07bcac3e5d7faStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -360Model 63.3% · Market 78.3%Edge -14.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +296Model 36.7% · Market 25.3%Edge +11.4% · Full Kelly 15.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 5 model points |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_12a8v0yb0e416c3baa0a1Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBoston Red Sox +124Model 44.4% · Market 44.6%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Yankees +101Model 55.4% · Market 49.8%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 11.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → +101 | 50 model points |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8v0yb03a3c24e4580eStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassHouston Astros -116Model 52.1% · Market 53.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassHouston Astros -116Model 52.0% · Market 53.7%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-116 → -116Logit 0.000 | 27 model points |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8v0yb07bcac3e5d7faStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 +101Model 50.1% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +101Model 50.0% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+101 → +101Logit 0.000 | 112 model points |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8v0yb07bcac3e5d7faStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Pending2-6 | PassPhiladelphia Phillies +119Model 45.3% · Market 45.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAtlanta Braves -106Model 54.9% · Market 51.5%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 7.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -106 | 43 model points |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8v0yb07bcac3e5d7faStarts | TotalOpening line 7Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7 -116Model 51.9% · Market 53.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7 -116Model 51.9% · Market 53.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-116 → -116Logit 0.000 | 21 model points |
| Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padresevt_12a8pvrn6931d04d56fa8Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 +104Model 50.0% · Market 49.0%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +104Model 50.0% · Market 49.0%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+104 → +104Logit 0.000 | 6 model points |
| Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padresevt_12a8pvrn6931d04d56fa8Starts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Lost1-4Paper stake $200 · P/L -$200 | Paper betChicago Cubs +124Model 49.5% · Market 44.6%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 8.8%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betChicago Cubs +116Model 49.5% · Market 46.3%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 1.5% · $149 | +1.7%+124 → +116Logit 0.067 | 41 model points |
| Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padresevt_12a8pvrn6931d04d56fa8Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-4 | PassUnder 8.5 -168Model 53.9% · Market 63.2%Edge -9.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +152Model 46.1% · Market 39.7%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 model points |
| Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padresevt_12a8pvrn6931d04d56fa8Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-4 | PassOver 4.5 -458Model 83.7% · Market 82.1%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 8.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +351Model 16.3% · Market 22.2%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +351 | 6 model points |
| Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padresevt_12a8pvrn6931d04d56fa8Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-4 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 77.7% · Market 84.9%Edge -7.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 22.3% · Market 18.0%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 6 model points |
| Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padresevt_12a8pvrn6931d04d56fa8Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-4 | PassOver 5.5 -239Model 73.4% · Market 70.5%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 9.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +198Model 26.6% · Market 33.6%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 6 model points |
| Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padresevt_12a8pvrn6931d04d56fa8Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-4 | PassUnder 6.5 +140Model 34.6% · Market 42.7%Edge -8.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -154Model 65.4% · Market 60.7%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 12.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -154 | 6 model points |
| Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padresevt_12a8pvrn6931d04d56fa8Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-4 | PassOver 10.5 +313Model 29.7% · Market 24.2%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 7.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -381Model 70.3% · Market 79.2%Edge -8.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 6 model points |
| Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padresevt_12a8pvrn6931d04d56fa8Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-4 | PassOver 9.5 +229Model 36.2% · Market 30.4%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 8.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -276Model 63.8% · Market 73.4%Edge -9.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 6 model points |
| Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padresevt_12a8pvrn6931d04d56fa8Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-4 | PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 10.8% · Market 14.8%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -719Model 89.2% · Market 87.8%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 11.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 6 model points |
| Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padresevt_12a8pvrn6931d04d56fa8Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 +101Model 49.3% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +109Model 49.8% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%+101 → +109Logit -0.076 | 46 model points |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_12a8pvrn6f8ebe8683e5dStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Yankees -107Model 54.5% · Market 51.7%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBoston Red Sox +119Model 44.8% · Market 45.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → +119 | 21 model points |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_12a8pvrn6f8ebe8683e5dStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +114Model 49.0% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +109Model 48.9% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.1%+114 → +109Logit 0.045 | 41 model points |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_12a8pvrn6f8ebe8683e5dStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-9 | PassOver 5.5 -175Model 70.7% · Market 64.2%Edge +6.6% · Full Kelly 19.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -175Model 70.7% · Market 63.6%Edge +7.1% · Full Kelly 19.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%-175 → -175Logit -0.022 | -1 model points |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_12a8pvrn6f8ebe8683e5dStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-9 | PassOver 4.5 -340Model 81.7% · Market 77.3%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 19.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +266Model 18.3% · Market 27.3%Edge -9.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +266 | 5 model points |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_12a8pvrn6f8ebe8683e5dStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-9 | PassUnder 3.5 +456Model 12.2% · Market 18.0%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -564Model 87.8% · Market 84.9%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 18.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 5 model points |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_12a8pvrn6f8ebe8683e5dStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-9 | PassOver 7.5 +146Model 50.4% · Market 41.2%Edge +9.3% · Full Kelly 16.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -161Model 49.6% · Market 62.2%Edge -12.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 5 model points |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_12a8pvrn6f8ebe8683e5dStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-9 | PassOver 10.5 +425Model 26.5% · Market 19.0%Edge +7.4% · Full Kelly 9.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -525Model 73.5% · Market 84.0%Edge -10.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 5 model points |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_12a8pvrn6f8ebe8683e5dStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-9 | PassOver 9.5 +296Model 32.8% · Market 25.3%Edge +7.5% · Full Kelly 10.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -360Model 67.2% · Market 78.3%Edge -11.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 5 model points |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_12a8pvrn6f8ebe8683e5dStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-9 | PassOver 8.5 +189Model 42.5% · Market 34.6%Edge +7.9% · Full Kelly 12.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -228Model 57.5% · Market 69.5%Edge -12.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 5 model points |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8pvrn65a757f5fbb85Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago White Sox +152Model 47.9% · Market 39.7%Edge +8.2% · Full Kelly 13.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago White Sox +134Model 45.3% · Market 42.7%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.1%+152 → +134Logit 0.126 | 25 model points |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8pvrn65a757f5fbb85Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -112Model 49.8% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -103Model 49.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → -103 | 25 model points |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8pvrn65a757f5fbb85Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-3 | PassUnder 8.5 -142Model 53.7% · Market 59.2%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -148Model 54.1% · Market 59.7%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.5%-142 → -148Logit 0.021 | -1 model points |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8pvrn65a757f5fbb85Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-3 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 29.9% · Market 28.4%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 70.1% · Market 75.4%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 5 model points |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8pvrn65a757f5fbb85Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-3 | PassUnder 5.5 +218Model 26.4% · Market 31.4%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -263Model 73.6% · Market 72.5%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 5 model points |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8pvrn65a757f5fbb85Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-3 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 22.5% · Market 21.1%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 77.5% · Market 82.1%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 5 model points |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8pvrn65a757f5fbb85Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-3 | PassOver 9.5 +189Model 36.4% · Market 34.6%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -239Model 63.6% · Market 70.5%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -239 | 5 model points |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8pvrn65a757f5fbb85Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-3 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 10.7% · Market 13.8%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 89.3% · Market 88.7%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -788 | 5 model points |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8pvrn65a757f5fbb85Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 16.2% · Market 20.1%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -489Model 83.8% · Market 83.0%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 5 model points |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8pvrn65a757f5fbb85Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-3 | PassUnder 12.5 -660Model 82.3% · Market 86.8%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +529Model 17.7% · Market 15.9%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 5 model points |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8pvrn65a757f5fbb85Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-3 | PassUnder 6.5 +158Model 34.3% · Market 39.2%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -175Model 65.7% · Market 64.2%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -175 | 5 model points |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8pvrn6de694d2bff40Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 +109Model 49.6% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +114Model 49.9% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%+109 → +114Logit -0.045 | 10 model points |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8pvrn6de694d2bff40Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAtlanta Braves -112Model 54.7% · Market 52.8%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAtlanta Braves +101Model 51.5% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.1%-112 → +101Logit -0.123 | 10 model points |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8pvrn6de694d2bff40Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassOver 8.5 +158Model 45.2% · Market 39.2%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 10.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +159Model 45.2% · Market 38.7%Edge +6.5% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%+158 → +159Logit -0.023 | 2 model points |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8pvrn6de694d2bff40Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassOver 10.5 +331Model 28.8% · Market 23.2%Edge +5.6% · Full Kelly 7.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -404Model 71.2% · Market 80.2%Edge -9.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 5 model points |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8pvrn6de694d2bff40Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassOver 5.5 -218Model 72.7% · Market 68.6%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 13.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +181Model 27.3% · Market 35.6%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 5 model points |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8pvrn6de694d2bff40Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassOver 4.5 -430Model 83.1% · Market 81.1%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 10.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +331Model 16.9% · Market 23.2%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +331 | 5 model points |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8pvrn6de694d2bff40Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 88.8% · Market 86.8%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 14.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 11.2% · Market 15.9%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 5 model points |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8pvrn6de694d2bff40Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassOver 9.5 +240Model 35.3% · Market 29.4%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 8.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -306Model 64.7% · Market 75.4%Edge -10.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -306 | 5 model points |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8pvrn6de694d2bff40Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassUnder 6.5 +134Model 35.4% · Market 43.7%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -148Model 64.6% · Market 59.7%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 12.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 5 model points |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8pvrn6de694d2bff40Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassOver 11.5 +529Model 21.6% · Market 15.9%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -660Model 78.4% · Market 86.8%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 5 model points |
| Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padresevt_12a8kqkz267c34c44584eStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 +109Model 49.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -103Model 49.8% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.9%+109 → -103Logit 0.116 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padresevt_12a8kqkz267c34c44584eStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago Cubs +109Model 49.2% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago Cubs +124Model 49.6% · Market 44.6%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.2%+109 → +124Logit -0.129 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padresevt_12a8kqkz267c34c44584eStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-8 | PassOver 6.5 -168Model 63.9% · Market 63.2%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +152Model 36.1% · Market 40.2%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padresevt_12a8kqkz267c34c44584eStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-8 | PassUnder 5.5 +198Model 27.9% · Market 33.6%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -239Model 72.1% · Market 70.5%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padresevt_12a8kqkz267c34c44584eStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-8 | PassOver 10.5 +280Model 28.2% · Market 26.3%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -340Model 71.8% · Market 77.3%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padresevt_12a8kqkz267c34c44584eStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-8 | PassOver 9.5 +208Model 34.6% · Market 32.5%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -251Model 65.4% · Market 71.5%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padresevt_12a8kqkz267c34c44584eStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-8 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 88.5% · Market 88.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 11.5% · Market 13.8%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padresevt_12a8kqkz267c34c44584eStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-8 | PassOver 4.5 -458Model 82.7% · Market 82.1%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +373Model 17.3% · Market 21.1%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padresevt_12a8kqkz267c34c44584eStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-8 | PassOver 11.5 +425Model 21.0% · Market 19.0%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -525Model 79.0% · Market 84.0%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padresevt_12a8kqkz267c34c44584eStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-8 | PassUnder 8.5 -161Model 55.6% · Market 61.7%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +146Model 44.4% · Market 41.7%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_12a8kqkz2b7f57ca5dadfStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Yankees -131Model 57.0% · Market 56.7%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Yankees -126Model 55.3% · Market 55.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%-131 → -126Logit -0.039 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_12a8kqkz2b7f57ca5dadfStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 6.5 +101Model 51.0% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 +114Model 51.0% · Market 46.7%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 8.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.0%+101 → +114Logit -0.121 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_12a8kqkz2b7f57ca5dadfStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-9 | PassOver 5.5 -131Model 70.4% · Market 57.3%Edge +13.2% · Full Kelly 31.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +119Model 29.6% · Market 46.2%Edge -16.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +119 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_12a8kqkz2b7f57ca5dadfStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-9 | PassOver 3.5 -381Model 87.6% · Market 79.2%Edge +8.4% · Full Kelly 40.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +313Model 12.4% · Market 24.2%Edge -11.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_12a8kqkz2b7f57ca5dadfStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-9 | PassUnder 9.5 -489Model 67.5% · Market 83.0%Edge -15.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +398Model 32.5% · Market 20.1%Edge +12.4% · Full Kelly 15.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_12a8kqkz2b7f57ca5dadfStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-9 | PassUnder 10.5 -660Model 73.8% · Market 86.8%Edge -13.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +529Model 26.2% · Market 15.9%Edge +10.3% · Full Kelly 12.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_12a8kqkz2b7f57ca5dadfStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-9 | PassUnder 8.5 -306Model 57.8% · Market 75.4%Edge -17.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +252Model 42.2% · Market 28.4%Edge +13.8% · Full Kelly 19.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_12a8kqkz2b7f57ca5dadfStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-9 | PassOver 4.5 -263Model 81.5% · Market 72.5%Edge +9.0% · Full Kelly 32.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +218Model 18.5% · Market 31.4%Edge -12.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_12a8kqkz2b7f57ca5dadfStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-9 | PassUnder 7.5 -200Model 49.9% · Market 67.1%Edge -17.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +180Model 50.1% · Market 36.2%Edge +13.9% · Full Kelly 22.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8kqkz2ada1defeb0c8Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.2% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.6% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+109 → +105Logit 0.037 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8kqkz2ada1defeb0c8Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago White Sox +119Model 47.9% · Market 45.7%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago White Sox +109Model 49.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.2%+119 → +109Logit 0.088 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8kqkz2ada1defeb0c8Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 41.4% · Market 46.2%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 58.6% · Market 57.8%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -137 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8kqkz2ada1defeb0c8Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 26.4% · Market 24.2%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 73.6% · Market 79.2%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8kqkz2ada1defeb0c8Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 76.9% · Market 76.3%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 23.1% · Market 27.3%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8kqkz2ada1defeb0c8Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 9.0% · Market 10.6%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 91.0% · Market 91.6%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8kqkz2ada1defeb0c8Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 69.6% · Market 69.5%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 30.4% · Market 35.6%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8kqkz2ada1defeb0c8Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 13.8% · Market 16.9%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 86.2% · Market 86.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8kqkz2ada1defeb0c8Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 21.2% · Market 19.0%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 78.8% · Market 84.0%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8kqkz2ada1defeb0c8Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 65.7% · Market 71.5%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 34.3% · Market 32.5%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8kqkz2ada1defeb0c8Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassOver 9.5 +165Model 41.0% · Market 38.2%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 59.0% · Market 65.1%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+165 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8kqkz2c3bd925dc2bcStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +105Model 48.4% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +109Model 48.5% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+105 → +109Logit -0.037 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8kqkz2c3bd925dc2bcStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassPhiladelphia Phillies +165Model 45.3% · Market 37.7%Edge +7.6% · Full Kelly 12.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassPhiladelphia Phillies +158Model 44.7% · Market 38.8%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 9.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+165 → +158Logit 0.043 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8kqkz2c3bd925dc2bcStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassOver 3.5 -489Model 88.7% · Market 83.0%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 33.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +398Model 11.3% · Market 20.1%Edge -8.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8kqkz2c3bd925dc2bcStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -788Model 78.6% · Market 88.7%Edge -10.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +625Model 21.4% · Market 13.8%Edge +7.6% · Full Kelly 8.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8kqkz2c3bd925dc2bcStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassOver 5.5 -175Model 72.5% · Market 63.6%Edge +8.9% · Full Kelly 24.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +146Model 27.5% · Market 40.7%Edge -13.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8kqkz2c3bd925dc2bcStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassUnder 7.5 -155Model 47.2% · Market 61.2%Edge -14.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +140Model 52.8% · Market 42.2%Edge +10.6% · Full Kelly 19.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-155 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8kqkz2c3bd925dc2bcStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassOver 10.5 +398Model 28.6% · Market 20.1%Edge +8.5% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -489Model 71.4% · Market 83.0%Edge -11.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8kqkz2c3bd925dc2bcStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassOver 8.5 +197Model 44.9% · Market 34.1%Edge +10.8% · Full Kelly 16.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -219Model 55.1% · Market 69.1%Edge -14.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+197 → -219 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8kqkz2c3bd925dc2bcStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassUnder 9.5 -381Model 65.0% · Market 79.2%Edge -14.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +313Model 35.0% · Market 24.2%Edge +10.8% · Full Kelly 14.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8kqkz2c3bd925dc2bcStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +266Model 16.9% · Market 27.3%Edge -10.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -340Model 83.1% · Market 77.3%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 25.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n5b607dStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBaltimore Orioles +129Model 42.8% · Market 43.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Yankees -121Model 57.2% · Market 54.8%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -121 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n0554c7Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels +140Model 38.4% · Market 41.7%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSeattle Mariners -168Model 69.2% · Market 62.7%Edge +6.5% · Full Kelly 17.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -168 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n0554c7Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +124Model 49.8% · Market 44.6%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 9.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +114Model 49.3% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.1%+124 → +114Logit 0.084 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n0554c7Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassUnder 5.5 +159Model 31.4% · Market 38.6%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -199Model 68.6% · Market 66.6%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+159 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n0554c7Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 8.5 +180Model 39.8% · Market 36.2%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -200Model 60.2% · Market 67.1%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+180 → -200 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n0554c7Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 3.5 -609Model 86.6% · Market 85.9%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +490Model 13.4% · Market 16.9%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n0554c7Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassUnder 9.5 -340Model 69.7% · Market 77.3%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +280Model 30.3% · Market 26.3%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n0554c7Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassOver 10.5 +351Model 24.3% · Market 22.2%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -430Model 75.7% · Market 81.1%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n0554c7Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 4.5 -381Model 80.1% · Market 79.2%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +296Model 19.9% · Market 25.3%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n0554c7Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 7.5 +101Model 48.5% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -142Model 52.3% · Market 59.2%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → -142 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n0554c7Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassUnder 11.5 -719Model 82.3% · Market 87.8%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +574Model 17.7% · Market 14.8%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4958d7Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 +114Model 50.1% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +114Model 50.1% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+114 → +114Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4958d7Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +173Model 38.1% · Market 36.6%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMilwaukee Brewers -208Model 69.0% · Market 67.5%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 4 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4958d7Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 8.5 -183Model 53.1% · Market 65.1%Edge -12.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +165Model 46.9% · Market 38.2%Edge +8.7% · Full Kelly 14.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4958d7Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -404Model 69.5% · Market 80.2%Edge -10.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +331Model 30.5% · Market 23.2%Edge +7.3% · Full Kelly 9.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4958d7Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +105Model 48.7% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +134Model 33.9% · Market 43.2%Edge -9.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.6%+105 → +134Logit -0.225 | 5 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4958d7Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassOver 5.5 -208Model 74.0% · Market 67.5%Edge +6.5% · Full Kelly 20.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +173Model 26.0% · Market 36.6%Edge -10.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4958d7Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassOver 11.5 +490Model 23.1% · Market 16.9%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 7.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -609Model 76.9% · Market 85.9%Edge -9.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4958d7Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassOver 9.5 +229Model 37.0% · Market 30.4%Edge +6.6% · Full Kelly 9.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -290Model 63.0% · Market 74.4%Edge -11.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4958d7Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +313Model 15.9% · Market 24.2%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -404Model 84.1% · Market 80.2%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 20.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4958d7Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassOver 3.5 -609Model 89.5% · Market 85.9%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 25.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +456Model 10.5% · Market 18.0%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n75c401Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMiami Marlins +105Model 51.8% · Market 48.8%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAtlanta Braves +105Model 51.0% · Market 48.8%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → +105 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n75c401Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 47.9% · Market 47.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 50.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+109 → +109Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n75c401Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 28.0% · Market 31.5%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +226Model 28.0% · Market 31.1%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%+218 → +226Logit -0.023 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n75c401Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 51.2% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 44.2% · Market 47.3%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → +114 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n75c401Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassOver 9.5 +159Model 34.4% · Market 38.7%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 65.6% · Market 64.6%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+159 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n75c401Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 71.9% · Market 76.3%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 28.1% · Market 27.3%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n75c401Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 11.6% · Market 11.7%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 88.4% · Market 91.6%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n75c401Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 79.2% · Market 79.2%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 20.8% · Market 24.2%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n75c401Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 17.4% · Market 18.0%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 82.6% · Market 86.8%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n75c401Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 63.7% · Market 69.5%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 36.3% · Market 34.6%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n75c401Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 16.2% · Market 20.1%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 83.8% · Market 83.0%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n81c4a4Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 50.1% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.8% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+109 → +105Logit 0.037 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n81c4a4Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers +101Model 54.5% · Market 49.8%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 9.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers -116Model 56.0% · Market 53.7%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +4.0%+101 → -116Logit 0.158 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n81c4a4Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 76.0% · Market 81.1%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 24.0% · Market 22.2%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n81c4a4Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 10.0% · Market 12.7%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 90.0% · Market 89.7%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n81c4a4Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 25.1% · Market 30.4%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 74.9% · Market 74.4%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n81c4a4Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 31.6% · Market 29.4%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 68.4% · Market 75.4%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n81c4a4Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 19.0% · Market 18.0%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 81.0% · Market 84.9%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n81c4a4Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 15.2% · Market 19.0%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 84.8% · Market 84.9%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n81c4a4Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassOver 9.5 +188Model 38.2% · Market 35.2%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -209Model 61.8% · Market 68.1%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+188 → -209 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n81c4a4Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 48.8% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +124Model 48.1% · Market 45.7%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -6.0%-107 → +124Logit -0.241 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n81c4a4Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 32.8% · Market 37.6%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 67.2% · Market 66.6%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n96f3e2Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Diego Padres -137Model 56.6% · Market 57.8%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Diego Padres +129Model 48.1% · Market 43.7%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 7.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -14.1%-137 → +129Logit -0.570 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n96f3e2Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.9% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 50.5% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%-103 → +109Logit -0.116 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n96f3e2Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-9 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 61.3% · Market 67.5%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 38.7% · Market 36.6%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n96f3e2Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-9 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 69.8% · Market 75.4%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 30.2% · Market 28.4%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n96f3e2Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-9 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 85.5% · Market 84.9%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 14.5% · Market 18.0%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n96f3e2Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-9 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 74.3% · Market 73.4%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 25.7% · Market 30.4%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n96f3e2Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-9 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 48.0% · Market 50.7%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 41.6% · Market 47.3%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.5%-103 → +114Logit -0.138 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n96f3e2Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-9 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 81.0% · Market 85.9%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 19.0% · Market 18.0%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n96f3e2Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-9 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 31.9% · Market 37.1%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 68.1% · Market 66.1%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 7.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n96f3e2Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-9 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 81.2% · Market 81.1%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 18.8% · Market 22.2%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n96f3e2Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-9 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 87.3% · Market 90.6%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 12.7% · Market 12.7%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na50cfeStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 50.7% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.4% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → +105 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na50cfeStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassColorado Rockies +146Model 41.6% · Market 40.6%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago White Sox -161Model 60.5% · Market 61.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na50cfeStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassOver 5.5 -360Model 75.7% · Market 78.3%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 24.3% · Market 26.3%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na50cfeStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 80.2% · Market 82.1%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 19.8% · Market 21.1%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na50cfeStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 14.7% · Market 15.9%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 85.3% · Market 86.8%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na50cfeStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 9.6% · Market 9.6%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 90.4% · Market 92.5%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+945 → -1236 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na50cfeStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 56.9% · Market 57.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 43.1% · Market 45.7%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +119 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na50cfeStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 31.9% · Market 34.6%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 68.1% · Market 69.5%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na50cfeStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 13.5 +574Model 14.2% · Market 14.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -719Model 85.8% · Market 87.8%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na50cfeStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 9.5 +165Model 39.2% · Market 38.7%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 60.8% · Market 64.7%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+165 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na50cfeStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 24.9% · Market 25.3%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 75.1% · Market 78.3%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na50cfeStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 67.4% · Market 70.5%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 32.6% · Market 33.6%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nabfef2Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 50.3% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 50.4% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.8%-107 → +109Logit -0.154 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nabfef2Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassKansas City Royals +119Model 48.6% · Market 45.7%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCleveland Guardians -107Model 53.8% · Market 51.7%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -107 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nabfef2Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 52.1% · Market 64.2%Edge -12.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 47.7% · Market 39.2%Edge +8.5% · Full Kelly 14.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nabfef2Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 25.1% · Market 34.6%Edge -9.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 74.9% · Market 69.5%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 17.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nabfef2Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 81.3% · Market 77.3%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 17.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 18.7% · Market 27.3%Edge -8.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nabfef2Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 32.7% · Market 24.2%Edge +8.5% · Full Kelly 11.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 67.3% · Market 79.2%Edge -12.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nabfef2Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 58.9% · Market 71.5%Edge -12.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 41.1% · Market 32.5%Edge +8.7% · Full Kelly 12.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nabfef2Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 72.9% · Market 83.0%Edge -10.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 27.1% · Market 20.1%Edge +7.0% · Full Kelly 8.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nabfef2Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 7.0% · Market 10.6%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 93.0% · Market 91.6%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 17.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nabfef2Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 89.1% · Market 86.8%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 17.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 10.9% · Market 15.9%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nabfef2Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 64.9% · Market 57.3%Edge +7.7% · Full Kelly 19.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 35.1% · Market 46.2%Edge -11.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +119 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66ne35139Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMinnesota Twins -107Model 50.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTexas Rangers -116Model 52.0% · Market 53.7%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -116 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66ne35139Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.0% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%-107 → +105Logit -0.116 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66ne35139Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 54.6% · Market 57.8%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 54.6% · Market 57.3%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%-137 → -131Logit -0.022 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66ne35139Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 34.0% · Market 35.6%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 66.0% · Market 68.6%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66ne35139Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 18.0% · Market 21.1%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 82.0% · Market 82.1%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66ne35139Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassOver 11.5 +280Model 22.9% · Market 26.3%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 77.1% · Market 77.3%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66ne35139Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 26.2% · Market 27.3%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 73.8% · Market 77.3%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66ne35139Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 63.1% · Market 64.2%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 36.9% · Market 39.2%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66ne35139Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 89.4% · Market 91.6%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 10.6% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66ne35139Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 16.0% · Market 18.0%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 84.0% · Market 85.9%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66ne35139Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 69.7% · Market 71.5%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 30.3% · Market 32.5%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66ne5d418Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 50.4% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.6% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%-107 → +105Logit -0.116 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66ne5d418Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds +140Model 43.2% · Market 41.7%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassToronto Blue Jays -168Model 61.1% · Market 62.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -168 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66ne5d418Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-5 | PassUnder 10.5 -208Model 67.1% · Market 67.5%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 32.9% · Market 36.6%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66ne5d418Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-5 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 25.2% · Market 28.4%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 74.8% · Market 75.4%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66ne5d418Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 14.5% · Market 14.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -788Model 85.5% · Market 88.7%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66ne5d418Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-5 | PassUnder 12.5 -430Model 79.9% · Market 81.1%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +331Model 20.1% · Market 23.2%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66ne5d418Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-5 | PassOver 7.5 -161Model 57.2% · Market 62.2%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +146Model 42.8% · Market 41.7%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66ne5d418Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-5 | PassUnder 5.5 +313Model 24.1% · Market 24.2%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 75.9% · Market 79.2%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66ne5d418Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-5 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 9.5% · Market 9.6%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 90.5% · Market 92.5%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+945 → -1236 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66ne5d418Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-5 | PassOver 9.5 +134Model 39.6% · Market 43.2%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -148Model 60.4% · Market 60.2%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66ne5d418Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-5 | PassOver 6.5 -263Model 68.4% · Market 72.5%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +218Model 31.6% · Market 31.4%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n09569dStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassPhiladelphia Phillies -131Model 55.4% · Market 56.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTampa Bay Rays +166Model 44.7% · Market 37.6%Edge +7.1% · Full Kelly 11.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +166 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n09569dStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 -103Model 48.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 +101Model 51.5% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → +101 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n09569dStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassOver 7.5 +105Model 49.8% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +165Model 53.5% · Market 38.2%Edge +15.3% · Full Kelly 25.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -10.6%+105 → +165Logit -0.433 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n1b7148Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -116Model 52.8% · Market 53.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -112Model 52.8% · Market 52.8%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%-116 → -112Logit -0.035 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n1b7148Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassHouston Astros -126Model 53.4% · Market 55.8%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +166Model 43.9% · Market 37.6%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 10.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-126 → +166 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n1b7148Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-0 | PassOver 3.5 -2580Model 90.5% · Market 96.3%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1775Model 9.5% · Market 5.3%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-2580 → +1775 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n1b7148Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-0 | PassOver 6.5 -458Model 68.4% · Market 82.1%Edge -13.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +373Model 31.6% · Market 21.1%Edge +10.4% · Full Kelly 13.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n1b7148Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-0 | PassUnder 9.5 -121Model 51.9% · Market 54.8%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 +124Model 60.3% · Market 45.7%Edge +14.7% · Full Kelly 28.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -9.1%-121 → +124Logit -0.364 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n1b7148Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-0 | PassOver 13.5 +280Model 14.5% · Market 26.3%Edge -11.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -340Model 85.5% · Market 77.3%Edge +8.3% · Full Kelly 36.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n1b7148Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-0 | PassUnder 12.5 -239Model 79.9% · Market 70.5%Edge +9.4% · Full Kelly 31.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +198Model 20.1% · Market 33.6%Edge -13.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n1b7148Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-0 | PassOver 7.5 -276Model 57.3% · Market 73.4%Edge -16.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +229Model 42.7% · Market 30.4%Edge +12.3% · Full Kelly 17.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n1b7148Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-0 | PassOver 11.5 +159Model 25.2% · Market 38.6%Edge -13.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -191Model 74.8% · Market 65.6%Edge +9.1% · Full Kelly 26.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+159 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n1b7148Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-0 | PassUnder 4.5 +945Model 14.5% · Market 9.6%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -1428Model 85.5% · Market 93.5%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+945 → -1428 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n1b7148Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-0 | PassOver 5.5 -660Model 75.9% · Market 86.8%Edge -10.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +529Model 24.1% · Market 15.9%Edge +8.2% · Full Kelly 9.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n1b7148Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-0 | PassUnder 8.5 +173Model 50.4% · Market 37.1%Edge +13.3% · Full Kelly 21.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -191Model 49.6% · Market 66.1%Edge -16.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n643de2Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 48.6% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 48.7% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+101 → +101Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n643de2Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Francisco Giants +198Model 46.8% · Market 33.6%Edge +13.2% · Full Kelly 19.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants +208Model 36.9% · Market 32.5%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%+198 → +208Logit -0.049 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n643de2Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 28.1% · Market 33.6%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 71.9% · Market 70.5%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n643de2Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-1 | PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 79.0% · Market 77.3%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 7.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +280Model 21.0% · Market 26.3%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n643de2Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 11.7% · Market 11.7%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 88.3% · Market 91.6%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n643de2Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-1 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 71.8% · Market 77.3%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 28.2% · Market 27.3%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n643de2Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassOver 6.5 -219Model 63.7% · Market 69.1%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +197Model 36.3% · Market 34.1%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-219 → +197 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n643de2Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 16.4% · Market 21.1%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 83.6% · Market 82.1%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 8.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n643de2Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 17.5% · Market 15.9%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 82.5% · Market 86.8%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n643de2Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-1 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 65.5% · Market 63.6%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +146Model 34.5% · Market 40.7%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n643de2Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.3% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 47.8% · Market 45.7%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.1%-103 → +119Logit -0.204 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66na05242Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals -112Model 53.0% · Market 52.8%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Mets -116Model 53.1% · Market 53.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → -116 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66na854e9Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -112Model 50.9% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -112Model 50.9% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-112 → -112Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66na854e9Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 91.7% · Market 90.6%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 12.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 8.3% · Market 13.8%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66na854e9Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 12.7% · Market 19.0%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 87.3% · Market 84.9%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 15.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66na854e9Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -489Model 71.4% · Market 83.0%Edge -11.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +398Model 28.6% · Market 20.1%Edge +8.5% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66na854e9Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 78.5% · Market 73.4%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 19.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +218Model 21.5% · Market 31.4%Edge -10.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66na854e9Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +140Model 28.4% · Market 41.7%Edge -13.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -183Model 71.6% · Market 64.7%Edge +6.9% · Full Kelly 19.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66na854e9Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 36.7% · Market 28.4%Edge +8.3% · Full Kelly 11.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -340Model 63.3% · Market 77.3%Edge -14.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66na854e9Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -251Model 56.5% · Market 71.5%Edge -15.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +189Model 43.5% · Market 34.6%Edge +8.8% · Full Kelly 13.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66na854e9Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassUnder 8.5 -161Model 46.6% · Market 61.7%Edge -15.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +124Model 53.4% · Market 44.6%Edge +8.8% · Full Kelly 15.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n09569dStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassUnder 11.5 -869Model 78.1% · Market 89.7%Edge -11.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +685Model 21.9% · Market 12.7%Edge +9.2% · Full Kelly 10.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n09569dStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassUnder 3.5 +398Model 11.0% · Market 20.1%Edge -9.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -489Model 89.0% · Market 83.0%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 35.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n09569dStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassUnder 8.5 -229Model 54.4% · Market 70.6%Edge -16.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +208Model 45.6% · Market 32.6%Edge +13.0% · Full Kelly 19.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-229 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n09569dStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 9.5 +344Model 35.7% · Market 22.9%Edge +12.9% · Full Kelly 17.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -388Model 64.3% · Market 79.8%Edge -15.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+344 → -388 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n09569dStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 4.5 -306Model 83.4% · Market 75.4%Edge +8.1% · Full Kelly 32.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +252Model 16.6% · Market 28.4%Edge -11.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n09569dStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassUnder 5.5 +129Model 26.9% · Market 43.7%Edge -16.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -161Model 73.1% · Market 61.7%Edge +11.4% · Full Kelly 29.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n09569dStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassUnder 10.5 -525Model 70.8% · Market 84.0%Edge -13.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +425Model 29.2% · Market 19.0%Edge +10.2% · Full Kelly 12.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n5b607dStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 51.2% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +146Model 49.0% · Market 40.6%Edge +8.3% · Full Kelly 14.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n5b607dStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 50.2% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -121Model 45.9% · Market 54.8%Edge -8.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +5.0%+101 → -121Logit 0.201 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n5b607dStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -240Model 63.6% · Market 70.6%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +216Model 36.4% · Market 31.6%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-240 → +216 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66na05242Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.6% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.9% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%-107 → +101Logit -0.078 | 3 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66na05242Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 56.6% · Market 63.6%Edge -7.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 43.4% · Market 38.8%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 7.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66na05242Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 60.9% · Market 57.8%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 7.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 39.1% · Market 44.6%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n096578Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -121Model 50.7% · Market 54.8%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +109Model 50.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-121 → +109 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n096578Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels +166Model 42.2% · Market 37.6%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 7.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSeattle Mariners -161Model 60.2% · Market 61.7%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -161 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n096578Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-8 | PassUnder 6.5 +140Model 32.4% · Market 42.2%Edge -9.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +134Model 32.4% · Market 42.7%Edge -10.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.5%+140 → +134Logit 0.022 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n096578Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-8 | PassOver 5.5 -228Model 75.2% · Market 69.5%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 18.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +189Model 24.8% · Market 34.6%Edge -9.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n096578Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-8 | PassOver 9.5 +218Model 38.6% · Market 31.4%Edge +7.1% · Full Kelly 10.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -263Model 61.4% · Market 72.5%Edge -11.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n096578Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-8 | PassUnder 4.5 +331Model 15.0% · Market 23.2%Edge -8.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -430Model 85.0% · Market 81.1%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 20.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n096578Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-8 | PassUnder 12.5 -788Model 80.7% · Market 88.7%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +625Model 19.3% · Market 13.8%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n096578Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-8 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 48.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +152Model 48.5% · Market 40.2%Edge +8.4% · Full Kelly 14.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -7.7%+109 → +152Logit -0.312 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n096578Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-8 | PassOver 3.5 -719Model 90.1% · Market 87.8%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 19.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 9.9% · Market 15.9%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n096578Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-8 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 75.7% · Market 84.9%Edge -9.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 24.3% · Market 18.0%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 7.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n096578Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-8 | PassOver 10.5 +296Model 32.0% · Market 25.3%Edge +6.7% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -360Model 68.0% · Market 78.3%Edge -10.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc149d8Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +114Model 48.1% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 +101Model 52.1% · Market 49.8%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → +101 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc149d8Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +129Model 47.3% · Market 43.7%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +140Model 45.7% · Market 41.7%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%+129 → +140Logit -0.082 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc149d8Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost13-2 | PassOver 4.5 -1236Model 84.7% · Market 92.5%Edge -7.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +945Model 15.3% · Market 9.6%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +945 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc149d8Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost13-2 | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.3% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +158Model 51.9% · Market 39.2%Edge +12.7% · Full Kelly 21.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → +158 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc149d8Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost13-2 | PassOver 6.5 -404Model 67.1% · Market 80.2%Edge -13.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +331Model 32.9% · Market 23.2%Edge +9.7% · Full Kelly 12.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc149d8Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost13-2 | PassOver 12.5 +218Model 19.0% · Market 31.4%Edge -12.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -263Model 81.0% · Market 72.5%Edge +8.6% · Full Kelly 31.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc149d8Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost13-2 | PassOver 3.5 -2042Model 89.9% · Market 95.3%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1464Model 10.1% · Market 6.4%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-2042 → +1464 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc149d8Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won13-2 | PassUnder 7.5 +208Model 44.1% · Market 32.6%Edge +11.6% · Full Kelly 17.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -229Model 55.9% · Market 70.6%Edge -14.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc149d8Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost13-2 | PassOver 10.5 +124Model 31.5% · Market 45.2%Edge -13.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -137Model 68.5% · Market 58.2%Edge +10.2% · Full Kelly 25.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -137 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc149d8Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won13-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -208Model 76.1% · Market 67.5%Edge +8.5% · Full Kelly 26.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +173Model 23.9% · Market 36.6%Edge -12.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc149d8Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won13-2 | PassUnder 5.5 +490Model 25.2% · Market 16.9%Edge +8.2% · Full Kelly 9.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -609Model 74.8% · Market 85.9%Edge -11.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nfd0d98Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -112Model 50.9% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 50.6% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.0%-112 → +109Logit -0.199 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nfd0d98Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Diego Padres -121Model 56.4% · Market 54.8%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassArizona Diamondbacks +109Model 49.7% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-121 → +109 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nfd0d98Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-10 | PassOver 8.5 +124Model 42.0% · Market 45.2%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +119Model 41.8% · Market 45.7%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.5%+124 → +119Logit 0.021 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nfd0d98Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-10 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 70.2% · Market 73.4%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 29.8% · Market 30.4%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nfd0d98Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-10 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 12.5% · Market 12.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 87.5% · Market 89.7%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nfd0d98Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-10 | PassOver 6.5 -183Model 61.7% · Market 65.1%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +165Model 38.3% · Market 38.2%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nfd0d98Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-10 | PassUnder 9.5 -228Model 67.7% · Market 69.5%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +189Model 32.3% · Market 34.6%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nfd0d98Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-10 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 26.0% · Market 28.4%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 74.0% · Market 75.4%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nfd0d98Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-10 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 80.9% · Market 82.1%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 19.1% · Market 21.1%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nfd0d98Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-10 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 81.3% · Market 84.0%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 18.7% · Market 19.0%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66na854e9Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago Cubs -103Model 49.5% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago Cubs -103Model 49.5% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-103 → -103Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66ne4d56aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +105Model 48.2% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +109Model 48.9% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+105 → +109Logit -0.037 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66ne4d56aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassPhiladelphia Phillies -112Model 50.6% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTampa Bay Rays +101Model 51.5% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → +101 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66ne4d56aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost12-1 | PassOver 8.5 +180Model 42.6% · Market 36.2%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -200Model 57.4% · Market 67.1%Edge -9.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+180 → -200 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66ne4d56aStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost12-1 | PassOver 10.5 +373Model 26.5% · Market 21.1%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 6.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -458Model 73.5% · Market 82.1%Edge -8.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66ne4d56aStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost12-1 | PassOver 9.5 +280Model 32.9% · Market 26.3%Edge +6.5% · Full Kelly 8.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -340Model 67.1% · Market 77.3%Edge -10.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66ne4d56aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost12-1 | PassOver 7.5 +134Model 50.5% · Market 43.2%Edge +7.3% · Full Kelly 13.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -148Model 49.5% · Market 60.2%Edge -10.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66ne4d56aStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost12-1 | PassOver 11.5 +574Model 19.6% · Market 14.8%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -719Model 80.4% · Market 87.8%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66ne4d56aStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost12-1 | PassOver 5.5 -191Model 70.7% · Market 65.6%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 14.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +159Model 29.3% · Market 38.6%Edge -9.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +159 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66ne4d56aStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost12-1 | PassOver 3.5 -609Model 87.7% · Market 85.9%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 12.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +490Model 12.3% · Market 16.9%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66ne4d56aStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost12-1 | PassOver 4.5 -360Model 81.7% · Market 78.3%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 15.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +296Model 18.3% · Market 25.3%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n5dcb51Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +152Model 40.0% · Market 39.7%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMilwaukee Brewers -161Model 65.0% · Market 61.7%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -161 | 4 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n5dcb51Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -116Model 49.9% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.0%-116 → -103Logit -0.119 | 3 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n5dcb51Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 6.5 +158Model 31.6% · Market 39.7%Edge -8.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -168Model 68.4% · Market 63.2%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 15.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n5dcb51Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 14.5% · Market 20.1%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -489Model 85.5% · Market 83.0%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 14.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n5dcb51Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 9.5 +189Model 39.6% · Market 34.6%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 7.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -239Model 60.4% · Market 70.5%Edge -10.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n5dcb51Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 9.5% · Market 13.8%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 90.5% · Market 88.7%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 15.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n5dcb51Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 8.5 +134Model 49.6% · Market 43.2%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 11.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -148Model 50.4% · Market 60.2%Edge -9.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n5dcb51Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 10.5 +266Model 33.0% · Market 27.3%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 7.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -322Model 67.0% · Market 76.3%Edge -9.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n5dcb51Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 74.7% · Market 82.1%Edge -7.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 25.3% · Market 21.1%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n5dcb51Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 5.5 -263Model 76.0% · Market 72.5%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 12.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +218Model 24.0% · Market 31.4%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6f04fdStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.4% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.6% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%-103 → +105Logit -0.078 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6f04fdStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassColorado Rockies +159Model 39.3% · Market 38.6%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassColorado Rockies +208Model 36.7% · Market 32.5%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -6.1%+159 → +208Logit -0.269 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6f04fdStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 58.6% · Market 64.7%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 41.4% · Market 39.2%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6f04fdStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-6 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 58.9% · Market 58.2%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -137 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6f04fdStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-6 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 34.8% · Market 31.4%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 65.2% · Market 72.5%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6f04fdStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-6 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 86.4% · Market 86.8%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 13.6% · Market 15.9%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6f04fdStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-6 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 77.2% · Market 76.3%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 22.8% · Market 27.3%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6f04fdStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 30.1% · Market 35.6%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 69.9% · Market 68.6%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6f04fdStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 73.1% · Market 79.2%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 26.9% · Market 24.2%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6f04fdStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-6 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 8.9% · Market 10.6%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 91.1% · Market 91.6%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6f04fdStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-6 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 78.4% · Market 83.0%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 21.6% · Market 20.1%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n782f37Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 50.1% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 50.6% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%-103 → +105Logit -0.078 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n782f37Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassKansas City Royals -107Model 49.7% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCleveland Guardians -112Model 53.7% · Market 52.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -112 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n782f37Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost11-5 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 65.5% · Market 57.3%Edge +8.3% · Full Kelly 20.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 34.5% · Market 45.7%Edge -11.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n782f37Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost11-5 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 27.7% · Market 20.1%Edge +7.7% · Full Kelly 9.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 72.3% · Market 83.0%Edge -10.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n782f37Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-5 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 58.1% · Market 71.5%Edge -13.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 41.9% · Market 32.5%Edge +9.4% · Full Kelly 13.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n782f37Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost11-5 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 93.2% · Market 91.6%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 19.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 6.8% · Market 10.6%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n782f37Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 10.6% · Market 15.9%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 89.4% · Market 86.8%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 19.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n782f37Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost11-5 | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 33.5% · Market 25.3%Edge +8.2% · Full Kelly 11.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 66.5% · Market 78.3%Edge -11.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n782f37Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost11-5 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 75.4% · Market 69.5%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 19.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 24.6% · Market 34.6%Edge -10.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n782f37Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-5 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 18.3% · Market 26.3%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 81.7% · Market 77.3%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 19.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n782f37Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost11-5 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 48.6% · Market 39.2%Edge +9.4% · Full Kelly 16.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 51.4% · Market 64.2%Edge -12.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4b2389Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 51.0% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.1% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → +101 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4b2389Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMiami Marlins +109Model 50.8% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 5.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAtlanta Braves -116Model 51.5% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+109 → -116 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4b2389Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-3 | PassOver 12.5 +351Model 18.5% · Market 22.2%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 81.5% · Market 82.1%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4b2389Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-3 | PassOver 7.5 -142Model 55.2% · Market 59.7%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +129Model 44.8% · Market 43.7%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +129 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4b2389Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-3 | PassUnder 9.5 -161Model 62.5% · Market 62.2%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +146Model 37.5% · Market 41.2%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4b2389Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-3 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 84.3% · Market 87.8%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 15.7% · Market 14.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4b2389Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-3 | PassUnder 6.5 +208Model 33.5% · Market 32.5%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -251Model 66.5% · Market 71.5%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4b2389Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -228Model 69.1% · Market 69.5%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +181Model 30.9% · Market 35.6%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4b2389Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-3 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 89.6% · Market 92.5%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 10.4% · Market 10.6%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4b2389Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-3 | PassOver 5.5 -360Model 74.3% · Market 78.3%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 25.7% · Market 26.3%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4b2389Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-3 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 76.6% · Market 75.4%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 23.4% · Market 28.4%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nbddc05Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMinnesota Twins -103Model 50.4% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTexas Rangers -126Model 54.6% · Market 55.8%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -126 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nbddc05Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.6% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.9% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+105 → +101Logit 0.039 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nbddc05Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 10.4% · Market 12.7%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 89.6% · Market 90.6%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nbddc05Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -200Model 62.4% · Market 67.1%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +180Model 37.6% · Market 36.2%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nbddc05Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.4% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +119Model 47.5% · Market 46.2%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.6%+105 → +119Logit -0.104 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nbddc05Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 74.3% · Market 74.4%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 25.7% · Market 29.4%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nbddc05Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 76.5% · Market 81.1%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 23.5% · Market 23.2%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nbddc05Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 81.4% · Market 84.9%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 18.6% · Market 19.0%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nbddc05Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 31.0% · Market 30.4%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 69.0% · Market 74.4%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nbddc05Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 33.5% · Market 37.6%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 66.5% · Market 66.6%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nbddc05Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 15.7% · Market 18.0%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 84.3% · Market 85.9%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n94f525Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals +119Model 54.5% · Market 45.7%Edge +8.8% · Full Kelly 16.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals -107Model 55.4% · Market 51.7%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 7.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +6.0%+119 → -107Logit 0.242 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n94f525Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-1 | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 47.1% · Market 49.8%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%-107 → +101Logit -0.078 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66ndb7ec4Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 +105Model 50.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +109Model 50.1% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+105 → +109Logit -0.037 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66ndb7ec4Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Francisco Giants +296Model 43.6% · Market 25.3%Edge +18.4% · Full Kelly 24.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants +229Model 36.8% · Market 30.4%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 9.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +5.1%+296 → +229Logit 0.257 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66ndb7ec4Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassOver 8.5 +158Model 50.8% · Market 39.7%Edge +11.1% · Full Kelly 19.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -175Model 52.6% · Market 64.2%Edge -11.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66ndb7ec4Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassOver 11.5 +425Model 26.4% · Market 19.0%Edge +7.3% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 73.6% · Market 84.9%Edge -11.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66ndb7ec4Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassUnder 5.5 +189Model 23.5% · Market 34.6%Edge -11.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -228Model 76.5% · Market 69.5%Edge +7.0% · Full Kelly 23.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66ndb7ec4Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassOver 9.5 +218Model 40.8% · Market 31.4%Edge +9.4% · Full Kelly 13.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -263Model 59.2% · Market 72.5%Edge -13.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66ndb7ec4Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -360Model 65.8% · Market 78.3%Edge -12.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +296Model 34.2% · Market 25.3%Edge +8.9% · Full Kelly 11.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66ndb7ec4Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassOver 3.5 -719Model 90.7% · Market 87.8%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 23.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 9.3% · Market 15.9%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66ndb7ec4Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassUnder 6.5 +129Model 30.8% · Market 44.2%Edge -13.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -142Model 69.2% · Market 59.2%Edge +10.1% · Full Kelly 25.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66ndb7ec4Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +351Model 14.1% · Market 22.2%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -458Model 85.9% · Market 82.1%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 21.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n685943Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.5% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.5% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+105 → +101Logit 0.039 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n685943Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassToronto Blue Jays -121Model 56.5% · Market 54.8%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +134Model 40.9% · Market 42.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-121 → +134 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n685943Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 40.1% · Market 37.6%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 59.9% · Market 64.2%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n685943Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 20.5% · Market 20.1%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 79.5% · Market 84.0%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n685943Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 14.2% · Market 16.9%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 85.8% · Market 86.8%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n685943Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 25.6% · Market 25.3%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 74.4% · Market 78.3%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n685943Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 23.7% · Market 28.4%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 76.3% · Market 75.4%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n685943Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-1 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 90.7% · Market 91.6%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 9.3% · Market 11.7%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n685943Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassUnder 7.5 -112Model 49.5% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 42.3% · Market 45.2%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -7.7%-112 → +124Logit -0.308 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n685943Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-1 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 31.2% · Market 35.6%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 68.8% · Market 68.6%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n685943Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 33.4% · Market 32.5%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 66.6% · Market 71.5%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb23c6fStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -116Model 51.0% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +114Model 51.2% · Market 46.7%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 8.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -7.0%-116 → +114Logit -0.279 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb23c6fStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers +109Model 56.2% · Market 47.9%Edge +8.3% · Full Kelly 16.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers -121Model 52.9% · Market 54.8%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +6.9%+109 → -121Logit 0.277 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb23c6fStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 88.8% · Market 93.5%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 11.2% · Market 8.5%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1428 → +1074 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb23c6fStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 4.5 -788Model 83.1% · Market 88.7%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +625Model 16.9% · Market 13.8%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb23c6fStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 9.5 -137Model 64.9% · Market 58.7%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 16.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +124Model 35.1% · Market 44.6%Edge -9.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb23c6fStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 28.7% · Market 36.6%Edge -7.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -208Model 71.3% · Market 67.5%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 11.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb23c6fStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 5.5 -404Model 72.6% · Market 80.2%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +331Model 27.4% · Market 23.2%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb23c6fStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 12.5 -381Model 83.3% · Market 79.2%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 19.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +313Model 16.7% · Market 24.2%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb23c6fStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassUnder 6.5 +240Model 35.5% · Market 29.4%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 8.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -290Model 64.5% · Market 74.4%Edge -9.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb23c6fStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 7.5 +158Model 47.1% · Market 39.7%Edge +7.4% · Full Kelly 13.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -175Model 52.9% · Market 63.6%Edge -10.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb23c6fStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 11.5 -290Model 78.6% · Market 74.4%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 16.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +240Model 21.4% · Market 29.4%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n94f525Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 10.5 +197Model 46.7% · Market 33.7%Edge +13.0% · Full Kelly 19.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +197Model 47.5% · Market 33.7%Edge +13.8% · Full Kelly 20.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+197 → +197Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n94f525Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-1 | PassOver 9.5 +152Model 37.2% · Market 39.7%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 62.8% · Market 62.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nedac73Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Francisco Giants +266Model 47.4% · Market 27.3%Edge +20.1% · Full Kelly 27.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants +266Model 36.2% · Market 27.3%Edge +8.9% · Full Kelly 12.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+266 → +266Logit 0.000 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nedac73Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 +101Model 49.6% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.9% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → +105 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nedac73Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-0 | PassUnder 5.5 +218Model 26.1% · Market 31.4%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 73.9% · Market 73.4%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nedac73Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-0 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 23.2% · Market 21.1%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 76.8% · Market 82.1%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nedac73Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-0 | PassUnder 10.5 -322Model 69.3% · Market 76.3%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +266Model 30.7% · Market 27.3%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nedac73Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-0 | PassUnder 8.5 -142Model 52.9% · Market 59.2%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +129Model 47.1% · Market 44.2%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +129 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nedac73Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-0 | PassOver 6.5 -175Model 66.1% · Market 63.6%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +158Model 33.9% · Market 39.7%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nedac73Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-0 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 89.4% · Market 88.7%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 10.6% · Market 13.8%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nedac73Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-0 | PassOver 9.5 +189Model 37.2% · Market 34.6%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -228Model 62.8% · Market 69.5%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nedac73Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-0 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 16.0% · Market 20.1%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -489Model 84.0% · Market 83.0%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nfc72d4Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +105Model 49.5% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +101Model 48.9% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+105 → +101Logit 0.039 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nfc72d4Starts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Lost7-5Paper stake $133 · P/L -$133 | Paper betSeattle Mariners -116Model 56.2% · Market 53.7%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 1.3% · $133 | Paper betSeattle Mariners -116Model 56.2% · Market 53.7%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 1.3% · $133 | +0.0%-116 → -116Logit 0.000 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nfc72d4Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +266Model 18.0% · Market 27.3%Edge -9.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -322Model 82.0% · Market 76.3%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 23.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nfc72d4Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-5 | PassOver 8.5 +189Model 43.0% · Market 34.6%Edge +8.4% · Full Kelly 12.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -228Model 57.0% · Market 69.5%Edge -12.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nfc72d4Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-5 | PassUnder 7.5 -161Model 49.1% · Market 62.2%Edge -13.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +146Model 50.9% · Market 41.2%Edge +9.8% · Full Kelly 17.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nfc72d4Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -788Model 80.1% · Market 88.7%Edge -8.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +625Model 19.9% · Market 13.8%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 7.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nfc72d4Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-5 | PassUnder 9.5 -381Model 66.8% · Market 79.2%Edge -12.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +296Model 33.2% · Market 25.3%Edge +8.0% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nfc72d4Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-5 | PassOver 5.5 -161Model 71.1% · Market 62.2%Edge +8.9% · Full Kelly 24.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +146Model 28.9% · Market 41.2%Edge -12.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nfc72d4Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-5 | PassOver 3.5 -525Model 88.0% · Market 84.0%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 24.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +425Model 12.0% · Market 19.0%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nfc72d4Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-5 | PassUnder 10.5 -525Model 73.1% · Market 84.0%Edge -10.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +425Model 26.9% · Market 19.0%Edge +7.9% · Full Kelly 9.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n8ad8b0Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassArizona Diamondbacks +119Model 43.8% · Market 45.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Diego Padres -126Model 55.7% · Market 55.8%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -126 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n8ad8b0Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 +101Model 49.1% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 50.5% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → +101 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n8ad8b0Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-4 | PassUnder 5.5 +218Model 29.3% · Market 31.4%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -263Model 70.7% · Market 72.5%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n8ad8b0Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-4 | PassUnder 10.5 -322Model 73.5% · Market 76.3%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 26.5% · Market 28.4%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n8ad8b0Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-4 | PassUnder 9.5 -251Model 67.2% · Market 71.5%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +208Model 32.8% · Market 32.5%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n8ad8b0Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost11-4 | PassOver 6.5 -175Model 62.3% · Market 64.2%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +158Model 37.7% · Market 39.2%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n8ad8b0Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-4 | PassUnder 8.5 -142Model 57.5% · Market 59.2%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +129Model 42.5% · Market 44.2%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +129 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n8ad8b0Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-4 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 12.3% · Market 13.8%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 87.7% · Market 89.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n8ad8b0Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-4 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 80.5% · Market 82.1%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 19.5% · Market 21.1%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n8ad8b0Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-4 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 18.3% · Market 19.0%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 81.7% · Market 84.0%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nb7ca17Starts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Won5-6Paper stake $200 · P/L $318 | Paper betAthletics +159Model 43.7% · Market 38.6%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 8.3%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betAthletics +166Model 43.7% · Market 37.6%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 9.8%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | -1.0%+159 → +166Logit -0.043 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nb7ca17Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +114Model 48.4% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -112Model 51.6% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -112 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nb7ca17Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassOver 7.5 -183Model 59.1% · Market 64.7%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -191Model 59.1% · Market 66.1%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.4%-183 → -191Logit 0.063 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nb7ca17Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassUnder 8.5 -116Model 50.6% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +129Model 48.4% · Market 44.7%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 8.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -9.0%-116 → +129Logit -0.362 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nb7ca17Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 3.5 +1241Model 9.0% · Market 7.5%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1684Model 91.0% · Market 94.4%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1241 → -1684 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nb7ca17Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassUnder 12.5 -340Model 78.2% · Market 77.3%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +280Model 21.8% · Market 26.3%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nb7ca17Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassOver 11.5 +208Model 27.0% · Market 32.5%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -251Model 73.0% · Market 71.5%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nb7ca17Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +266Model 30.1% · Market 27.3%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -322Model 69.9% · Market 76.3%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nb7ca17Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 5.5 -489Model 77.1% · Market 83.0%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +373Model 22.9% · Market 21.1%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nb7ca17Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +756Model 13.7% · Market 11.7%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -967Model 86.3% · Market 90.6%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nb7ca17Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 10.5 +152Model 34.9% · Market 39.7%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -183Model 65.1% · Market 64.7%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66ne59b31Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -116Model 50.1% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +114Model 49.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → +114 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66ne59b31Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMinnesota Twins -107Model 50.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMinnesota Twins +109Model 47.6% · Market 47.9%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.8%-107 → +109Logit -0.154 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66ne59b31Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-10 | PassUnder 5.5 +181Model 27.7% · Market 35.6%Edge -7.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -228Model 72.3% · Market 69.5%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 9.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66ne59b31Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-10 | PassUnder 4.5 +351Model 17.2% · Market 22.2%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -430Model 82.8% · Market 81.1%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 9.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66ne59b31Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-10 | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 88.6% · Market 86.8%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 13.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 11.4% · Market 15.9%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66ne59b31Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-10 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 78.8% · Market 84.9%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 21.2% · Market 18.0%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66ne59b31Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-10 | PassOver 6.5 -142Model 64.2% · Market 59.2%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 13.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +129Model 35.8% · Market 44.2%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +129 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66ne59b31Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-10 | PassOver 9.5 +229Model 34.9% · Market 30.4%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -276Model 65.1% · Market 73.4%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66ne59b31Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-10 | PassUnder 10.5 -360Model 71.5% · Market 78.3%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +296Model 28.5% · Market 25.3%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66ne59b31Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-10 | PassUnder 8.5 -175Model 55.3% · Market 64.2%Edge -8.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +158Model 44.7% · Market 39.2%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 9.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n227cb4Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassKansas City Royals -103Model 47.5% · Market 50.7%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassKansas City Royals +119Model 47.4% · Market 45.7%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.1%-103 → +119Logit -0.204 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n227cb4Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -112Model 49.3% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +114Model 50.6% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 7.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → +114 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n227cb4Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won12-9 | PassUnder 10.5 -381Model 65.3% · Market 79.2%Edge -13.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +313Model 34.7% · Market 24.2%Edge +10.5% · Full Kelly 13.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n227cb4Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won12-9 | PassUnder 4.5 +331Model 13.7% · Market 23.2%Edge -9.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -430Model 86.3% · Market 81.1%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 27.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n227cb4Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost12-9 | PassOver 6.5 -148Model 69.9% · Market 59.7%Edge +10.2% · Full Kelly 25.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +124Model 30.1% · Market 44.6%Edge -14.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n227cb4Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost12-9 | PassOver 9.5 +238Model 41.4% · Market 30.0%Edge +11.4% · Full Kelly 16.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -265Model 58.6% · Market 73.0%Edge -14.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+238 → -265 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n227cb4Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won12-9 | PassUnder 8.5 -175Model 48.6% · Market 64.2%Edge -15.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +158Model 51.4% · Market 39.2%Edge +12.2% · Full Kelly 20.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n227cb4Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost12-9 | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 91.0% · Market 86.8%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 31.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 9.0% · Market 15.9%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n227cb4Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won12-9 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 73.2% · Market 84.9%Edge -11.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 26.8% · Market 18.0%Edge +8.8% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n227cb4Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won12-9 | PassUnder 12.5 -869Model 78.5% · Market 89.7%Edge -11.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +685Model 21.5% · Market 12.7%Edge +8.8% · Full Kelly 10.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n227cb4Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won12-9 | PassUnder 5.5 +189Model 22.9% · Market 34.6%Edge -11.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -228Model 77.1% · Market 69.5%Edge +7.6% · Full Kelly 24.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n5ed816Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 49.9% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -107Model 50.6% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+109 → -107 | 4 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n5ed816Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +140Model 42.5% · Market 41.7%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +159Model 39.8% · Market 38.6%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.1%+140 → +159Logit -0.127 | 6 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n5ed816Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-8 | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.1% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -142Model 48.9% · Market 58.7%Edge -9.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -142 | 4 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n5ed816Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-8 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 65.6% · Market 74.4%Edge -8.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 34.4% · Market 29.4%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 7.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n5ed816Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-8 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 26.5% · Market 22.2%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 73.5% · Market 81.1%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n5ed816Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-8 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 13.7% · Market 18.0%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 86.3% · Market 85.9%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n5ed816Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-8 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 30.3% · Market 37.6%Edge -7.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 69.7% · Market 66.6%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 9.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n5ed816Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-8 | PassUnder 9.5 -200Model 58.9% · Market 67.6%Edge -8.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +181Model 41.1% · Market 35.7%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n5ed816Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-8 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 9.0% · Market 12.7%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 91.0% · Market 90.6%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n5ed816Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-8 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 78.7% · Market 85.9%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 21.3% · Market 16.9%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n5ed816Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-8 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 77.0% · Market 74.4%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 10.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 23.0% · Market 30.4%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n85d085Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassColorado Rockies +146Model 40.4% · Market 40.6%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassColorado Rockies +198Model 34.3% · Market 33.6%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -7.1%+146 → +198Logit -0.305 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n85d085Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.4% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.9% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%+101 → +109Logit -0.076 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n85d085Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-6 | PassOver 9.5 +159Model 43.5% · Market 38.7%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 8.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +165Model 43.5% · Market 38.2%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 9.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%+159 → +165Logit -0.022 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n85d085Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-6 | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 28.8% · Market 25.3%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 71.2% · Market 79.2%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n85d085Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-6 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 71.5% · Market 69.5%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 28.5% · Market 34.6%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n85d085Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-6 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 76.6% · Market 83.0%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 23.4% · Market 20.1%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n85d085Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 63.2% · Market 71.5%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 36.8% · Market 32.5%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n85d085Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-6 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 87.3% · Market 85.9%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 10.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 12.7% · Market 16.9%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n85d085Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-6 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 78.6% · Market 76.3%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 9.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 21.4% · Market 27.3%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n85d085Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-6 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 91.7% · Market 91.6%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 8.3% · Market 11.7%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n85d085Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-6 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 60.8% · Market 57.3%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 9.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -131 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n53b24cStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.4% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 50.1% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%-103 → +109Logit -0.116 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n53b24cStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAtlanta Braves -107Model 48.6% · Market 51.7%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAtlanta Braves -116Model 52.3% · Market 53.7%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.0%-107 → -116Logit 0.081 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n53b24cStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-3 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 17.3% · Market 18.0%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 82.7% · Market 84.9%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n53b24cStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-3 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 29.4% · Market 31.4%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 70.6% · Market 73.4%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n53b24cStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-3 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 65.1% · Market 67.5%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 34.9% · Market 36.6%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n53b24cStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-3 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 48.6% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 45.8% · Market 47.8%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%+101 → +109Logit -0.076 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n53b24cStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-3 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 11.0% · Market 11.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 89.0% · Market 90.6%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n53b24cStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-3 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 35.9% · Market 37.1%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 64.1% · Market 66.1%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n53b24cStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 16.5% · Market 16.9%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 83.5% · Market 85.9%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n53b24cStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-3 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 77.9% · Market 80.2%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 22.1% · Market 23.2%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n53b24cStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-3 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 73.1% · Market 75.4%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 26.9% · Market 28.4%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66na9dd7eStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassToronto Blue Jays -142Model 56.9% · Market 58.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassToronto Blue Jays -161Model 60.1% · Market 61.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.0%-142 → -161Logit 0.126 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66na9dd7eStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -121Model 50.3% · Market 54.8%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.8% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-121 → +101 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66na9dd7eStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 8.5 -142Model 52.3% · Market 59.2%Edge -6.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +124Model 47.7% · Market 44.6%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66na9dd7eStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 6.5 -183Model 66.8% · Market 65.1%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +165Model 33.2% · Market 38.7%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66na9dd7eStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 15.5% · Market 19.0%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 84.5% · Market 84.0%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66na9dd7eStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 76.4% · Market 82.1%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 23.6% · Market 21.1%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66na9dd7eStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 74.6% · Market 73.4%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 25.4% · Market 30.4%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66na9dd7eStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 9.5 +189Model 37.7% · Market 34.6%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -228Model 62.3% · Market 69.5%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66na9dd7eStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 89.8% · Market 89.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 10.2% · Market 13.8%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66na9dd7eStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 68.8% · Market 75.4%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 31.2% · Market 28.4%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n85b174Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Yankees -154Model 59.0% · Market 60.6%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBaltimore Orioles +101Model 49.1% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-154 → +101 | 6 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nda753aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.5% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 49.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → -103 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nda753aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals +119Model 54.2% · Market 45.7%Edge +8.5% · Full Kelly 15.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals -112Model 53.6% · Market 52.8%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +7.2%+119 → -112Logit 0.287 | 6 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nda753aStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-7 | PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 55.1% · Market 63.7%Edge -8.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +152Model 44.9% · Market 40.2%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nda753aStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 79.5% · Market 76.3%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 13.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 20.5% · Market 27.3%Edge -6.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nda753aStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-7 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 12.1% · Market 16.9%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 87.9% · Market 85.9%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 14.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nda753aStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-7 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 70.1% · Market 79.2%Edge -9.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 29.9% · Market 24.2%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 7.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nda753aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-7 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 27.3% · Market 35.6%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 72.7% · Market 68.6%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 13.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nda753aStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 92.2% · Market 90.6%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 16.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 7.8% · Market 11.7%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nda753aStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 38.1% · Market 32.5%Edge +5.6% · Full Kelly 8.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 61.9% · Market 71.5%Edge -9.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nda753aStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 24.4% · Market 19.0%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 75.6% · Market 84.0%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nda753aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-7 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.5% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -142Model 62.2% · Market 58.7%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -142 | 7 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n140bf8Starts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Won2-0Paper stake $162 · P/L $237 | Paper betTampa Bay Rays +146Model 44.5% · Market 40.6%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 1.6% · $162 | Paper betTampa Bay Rays +146Model 44.5% · Market 40.6%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 1.6% · $162 | +0.0%+146 → +146Logit 0.000 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n140bf8Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 -112Model 49.0% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +101Model 48.8% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.1%-112 → +101Logit -0.123 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n140bf8Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-0 | PassUnder 7.5 -161Model 48.1% · Market 62.7%Edge -14.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +152Model 51.9% · Market 40.2%Edge +11.7% · Full Kelly 20.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n140bf8Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-0 | PassOver 5.5 -161Model 71.8% · Market 61.7%Edge +10.1% · Full Kelly 26.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +134Model 28.2% · Market 42.7%Edge -14.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n140bf8Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-0 | PassUnder 10.5 -525Model 72.3% · Market 84.0%Edge -11.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +425Model 27.7% · Market 19.0%Edge +8.7% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n140bf8Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-0 | PassUnder 8.5 -229Model 56.1% · Market 70.1%Edge -14.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +206Model 43.9% · Market 33.1%Edge +10.8% · Full Kelly 16.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-229 → +206 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n140bf8Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-0 | PassUnder 9.5 -381Model 65.9% · Market 79.2%Edge -13.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +313Model 34.1% · Market 24.2%Edge +9.9% · Full Kelly 13.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n140bf8Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-0 | PassUnder 4.5 +266Model 17.5% · Market 27.3%Edge -9.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -322Model 82.5% · Market 76.3%Edge +6.2% · Full Kelly 26.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n140bf8Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-0 | PassUnder 3.5 +398Model 11.7% · Market 20.1%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -489Model 88.3% · Market 83.0%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 31.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nd566fcStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers +114Model 56.1% · Market 46.7%Edge +9.4% · Full Kelly 17.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers -116Model 54.7% · Market 53.7%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +7.0%+114 → -116Logit 0.279 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nd566fcStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 50.2% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 50.2% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.8%-107 → +109Logit -0.154 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nd566fcStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-8 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 35.8% · Market 37.1%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 64.2% · Market 66.6%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nd566fcStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-8 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 11.3% · Market 10.6%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 88.7% · Market 91.6%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nd566fcStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-8 | PassOver 8.5 +119Model 44.7% · Market 46.2%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -131Model 55.3% · Market 57.3%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -131 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nd566fcStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-8 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 27.6% · Market 29.4%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 72.4% · Market 74.4%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nd566fcStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-8 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 28.4% · Market 30.4%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 71.6% · Market 73.4%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nd566fcStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-8 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 34.9% · Market 36.6%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -208Model 65.1% · Market 67.5%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nd566fcStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-8 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 16.5% · Market 16.9%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 83.5% · Market 85.9%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nd566fcStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-8 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 83.0% · Market 84.9%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 17.0% · Market 18.0%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nd566fcStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-8 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 21.2% · Market 22.2%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 78.8% · Market 81.1%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nfaaeb1Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 6.5 -116Model 51.9% · Market 53.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +105Model 47.8% · Market 48.8%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → +105 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nfaaeb1Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBoston Red Sox -107Model 51.4% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBoston Red Sox +105Model 49.9% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%-107 → +105Logit -0.116 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nfaaeb1Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 7.5 -168Model 38.6% · Market 62.7%Edge -24.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +152Model 61.4% · Market 39.7%Edge +21.7% · Full Kelly 36.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nfaaeb1Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 5.5 -161Model 78.9% · Market 61.7%Edge +17.2% · Full Kelly 44.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +146Model 21.1% · Market 40.7%Edge -19.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n85b174Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +105Model 48.5% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +109Model 47.7% · Market 47.9%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+105 → +109Logit -0.037 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n85b174Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-2 | PassOver 7.5 +146Model 59.7% · Market 40.7%Edge +19.0% · Full Kelly 32.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -161Model 40.3% · Market 61.7%Edge -21.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n85b174Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-2 | PassOver 5.5 -168Model 77.7% · Market 62.7%Edge +15.0% · Full Kelly 40.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +152Model 22.3% · Market 39.7%Edge -17.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nde2828Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Yankees -137Model 58.1% · Market 57.8%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Yankees -116Model 59.1% · Market 53.7%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 11.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.1%-137 → -116Logit -0.167 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n4e1476Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago Cubs -112Model 48.6% · Market 52.8%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBoston Red Sox +101Model 49.2% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → +101 | 8 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nb1fedcStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 50.8% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.4% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%-107 → +105Logit -0.116 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nb1fedcStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Diego Padres +119Model 43.8% · Market 45.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Diego Padres +140Model 40.7% · Market 41.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%+119 → +140Logit -0.162 | 6 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nb1fedcStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 26.8% · Market 29.4%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 73.2% · Market 74.4%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nb1fedcStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassOver 8.5 +124Model 42.8% · Market 45.2%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -137Model 57.2% · Market 58.2%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -137 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nb1fedcStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 80.2% · Market 81.1%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 19.8% · Market 22.2%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nb1fedcStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 12.1% · Market 12.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 87.9% · Market 90.6%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nb1fedcStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -218Model 66.9% · Market 68.6%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +181Model 33.1% · Market 35.6%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nb1fedcStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 18.1% · Market 19.0%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 81.9% · Market 84.0%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nb1fedcStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 29.1% · Market 30.4%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 70.9% · Market 73.4%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nb1fedcStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassOver 6.5 -183Model 62.5% · Market 65.1%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +165Model 37.5% · Market 38.2%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n8edf39Starts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Lost7-5Paper stake $99 · P/L -$99 | Paper betAthletics +152Model 42.1% · Market 39.7%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 1.0% · $99 | Paper betAthletics +152Model 42.1% · Market 39.7%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 1.0% · $99 | +0.0%+152 → +152Logit 0.000 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n8edf39Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 +105Model 52.3% · Market 48.8%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 +114Model 52.2% · Market 46.7%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 10.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.1%+105 → +114Logit -0.082 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n8edf39Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-5 | PassOver 8.5 -263Model 53.9% · Market 72.5%Edge -18.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +218Model 46.1% · Market 31.4%Edge +14.6% · Full Kelly 21.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n8edf39Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-5 | PassUnder 9.5 +152Model 56.0% · Market 40.2%Edge +15.9% · Full Kelly 27.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 -168Model 44.0% · Market 63.2%Edge -19.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n8edf39Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-5 | PassOver 5.5 -869Model 78.8% · Market 89.7%Edge -10.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +685Model 21.2% · Market 12.7%Edge +8.5% · Full Kelly 9.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n8edf39Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-5 | PassUnder 13.5 -263Model 82.6% · Market 72.5%Edge +10.1% · Full Kelly 36.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +218Model 17.4% · Market 31.4%Edge -14.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n8edf39Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-5 | PassUnder 12.5 -183Model 76.3% · Market 64.7%Edge +11.7% · Full Kelly 33.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +146Model 23.7% · Market 40.7%Edge -17.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n8edf39Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-5 | PassUnder 6.5 +490Model 28.1% · Market 16.9%Edge +11.1% · Full Kelly 13.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -609Model 71.9% · Market 85.9%Edge -14.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n8edf39Starts | TotalOpening line 14.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-5 | PassUnder 14.5 -340Model 86.3% · Market 77.3%Edge +9.0% · Full Kelly 39.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 14.5 +280Model 13.7% · Market 26.3%Edge -12.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n8edf39Starts | TotalOpening line 15.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-5 | PassUnder 15.5 -489Model 90.1% · Market 83.0%Edge +7.0% · Full Kelly 41.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 15.5 +398Model 9.9% · Market 20.1%Edge -10.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n8edf39Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -131Model 53.5% · Market 56.7%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +119Model 29.1% · Market 46.2%Edge -17.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +119 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n8edf39Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-5 | PassOver 7.5 -360Model 61.4% · Market 78.3%Edge -16.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +296Model 38.6% · Market 25.3%Edge +13.4% · Full Kelly 17.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nfc1128Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels +166Model 42.1% · Market 37.6%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 7.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSeattle Mariners -191Model 64.9% · Market 65.6%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -191 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nfc1128Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +114Model 49.5% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 5.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +119Model 48.9% · Market 45.7%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%+114 → +119Logit -0.043 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nfc1128Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-4 | PassOver 7.5 +109Model 48.9% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -142Model 49.1% · Market 59.2%Edge -10.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+109 → -142 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nfc1128Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-4 | PassOver 8.5 +173Model 43.0% · Market 36.6%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 10.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +173Model 43.0% · Market 37.1%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 10.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.5%+173 → +173Logit 0.021 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nfc1128Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-4 | PassUnder 9.5 -322Model 66.7% · Market 76.3%Edge -9.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +266Model 33.3% · Market 27.3%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 8.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nfc1128Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-4 | PassUnder 4.5 +296Model 18.0% · Market 25.3%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -381Model 82.0% · Market 79.2%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 13.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nfc1128Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-4 | PassOver 5.5 -199Model 71.1% · Market 66.6%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 13.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +166Model 28.9% · Market 37.6%Edge -8.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nfc1128Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-4 | PassUnder 3.5 +456Model 12.0% · Market 18.0%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 88.0% · Market 86.8%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nfc1128Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-4 | PassOver 10.5 +351Model 27.0% · Market 22.2%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -430Model 73.0% · Market 81.1%Edge -8.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nfc1128Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-4 | PassOver 11.5 +574Model 19.9% · Market 14.8%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -719Model 80.1% · Market 87.8%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66ne37113Starts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Won7-6Paper stake $157 · P/L $312 | Paper betCincinnati Reds +198Model 37.7% · Market 33.6%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 1.6% · $157 | Paper betCincinnati Reds +198Model 37.7% · Market 33.6%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 1.6% · $157 | +0.0%+198 → +198Logit 0.000 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66ne37113Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.4% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.4% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+109 → +109Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66ne37113Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 68.7% · Market 68.6%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +188Model 31.3% · Market 35.2%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +188 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66ne37113Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-6 | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 49.7% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 57.5% · Market 58.2%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -137 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66ne37113Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -199Model 60.1% · Market 66.6%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +166Model 39.9% · Market 37.6%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66ne37113Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-6 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 9.4% · Market 11.7%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 90.6% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66ne37113Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 74.5% · Market 80.2%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 25.5% · Market 23.2%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66ne37113Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 33.2% · Market 30.4%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 66.8% · Market 73.4%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66ne37113Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 85.7% · Market 85.9%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 14.3% · Market 16.9%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66ne37113Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 76.2% · Market 76.3%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 23.8% · Market 27.3%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nfe5da4Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 5.5 +109Model 47.7% · Market 47.9%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +114Model 47.9% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%+109 → +114Logit -0.045 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nfe5da4Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassTampa Bay Rays +124Model 43.8% · Market 44.6%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTampa Bay Rays +124Model 44.3% · Market 44.6%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+124 → +124Logit 0.000 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nfe5da4Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassOver 7.5 +188Model 48.8% · Market 35.2%Edge +13.7% · Full Kelly 21.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -218Model 51.2% · Market 68.6%Edge -17.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+188 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nfe5da4Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -719Model 74.9% · Market 87.8%Edge -12.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +574Model 25.1% · Market 14.8%Edge +10.2% · Full Kelly 12.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nfe5da4Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 6.5 -107Model 49.1% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 +119Model 60.8% · Market 46.2%Edge +14.6% · Full Kelly 27.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → +119 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nfe5da4Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 8.5 -322Model 59.1% · Market 76.3%Edge -17.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +266Model 40.9% · Market 27.3%Edge +13.6% · Full Kelly 18.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nfe5da4Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassOver 9.5 +398Model 31.3% · Market 20.1%Edge +11.2% · Full Kelly 14.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -489Model 68.7% · Market 83.0%Edge -14.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nfe5da4Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 3.5 +313Model 13.0% · Market 24.2%Edge -11.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -381Model 87.0% · Market 79.2%Edge +7.8% · Full Kelly 37.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nfe5da4Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +218Model 19.3% · Market 31.4%Edge -12.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -263Model 80.7% · Market 72.5%Edge +8.3% · Full Kelly 30.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n15967dStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCleveland Guardians +114Model 45.0% · Market 46.7%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBoston Red Sox -126Model 55.3% · Market 55.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -126 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n15967dStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +105Model 47.7% · Market 48.8%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +105Model 48.2% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+105 → +105Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n15967dStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-0 | PassOver 8.5 +198Model 48.4% · Market 33.6%Edge +14.8% · Full Kelly 22.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -229Model 51.6% · Market 70.1%Edge -18.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n15967dStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.4% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -161Model 43.8% · Market 62.7%Edge -18.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +12.9%+101 → -161Logit 0.528 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n15967dStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-0 | PassUnder 11.5 -869Model 75.8% · Market 89.7%Edge -13.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +685Model 24.2% · Market 12.7%Edge +11.5% · Full Kelly 13.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n15967dStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-0 | PassOver 9.5 +313Model 38.5% · Market 24.2%Edge +14.3% · Full Kelly 18.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -381Model 61.5% · Market 79.2%Edge -17.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n15967dStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-0 | PassOver 4.5 -322Model 84.9% · Market 76.3%Edge +8.6% · Full Kelly 36.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +266Model 15.1% · Market 27.3%Edge -12.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n15967dStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-0 | PassOver 3.5 -525Model 90.1% · Market 84.0%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 38.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +398Model 9.9% · Market 20.1%Edge -10.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n15967dStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-0 | PassOver 5.5 -175Model 75.2% · Market 63.6%Edge +11.5% · Full Kelly 31.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +146Model 24.8% · Market 40.7%Edge -15.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n15967dStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-0 | PassOver 10.5 +398Model 31.9% · Market 20.1%Edge +11.8% · Full Kelly 14.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -489Model 68.1% · Market 83.0%Edge -14.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n2d61d1Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.6% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.8% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+101 → +105Logit -0.039 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n2d61d1Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassPhiladelphia Phillies -107Model 49.9% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMilwaukee Brewers +109Model 51.4% · Market 47.9%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → +109 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n2d61d1Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassOver 9.5 +180Model 38.3% · Market 36.2%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -209Model 61.7% · Market 68.1%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+180 → -209 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n2d61d1Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-1 | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.4% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +124Model 48.2% · Market 45.2%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -6.5%-107 → +124Logit -0.262 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n2d61d1Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 31.7% · Market 29.4%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 68.3% · Market 74.4%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n2d61d1Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 19.1% · Market 16.9%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 80.9% · Market 85.9%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n2d61d1Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 25.0% · Market 29.4%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 75.0% · Market 74.4%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n2d61d1Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-1 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 90.0% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 10.0% · Market 12.7%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n2d61d1Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-1 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 32.7% · Market 36.6%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 67.3% · Market 67.5%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n2d61d1Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 15.2% · Market 18.0%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 84.8% · Market 84.9%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n2d61d1Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 24.1% · Market 22.2%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 75.9% · Market 81.1%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n29f21bStarts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Lost12-8Paper stake $116 · P/L -$116 | Paper betColorado Rockies +159Model 41.5% · Market 38.6%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 1.2% · $116 | Paper betColorado Rockies +166Model 41.5% · Market 37.6%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 1.6% · $155 | -1.0%+159 → +166Logit -0.043 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n29f21bStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Pending12-8 | PassUnder 9.5 +101Model 49.7% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 +109Model 49.2% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%+101 → +109Logit -0.076 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n29f21bStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Pending12-8 | PassOver 10.5 +101Model 49.5% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +109Model 50.0% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%+101 → +109Logit -0.076 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n29f21bStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won12-8 | PassUnder 13.5 -340Model 68.6% · Market 77.3%Edge -8.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +280Model 31.4% · Market 26.3%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n29f21bStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost12-8 | PassOver 6.5 -489Model 83.2% · Market 83.0%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +373Model 16.8% · Market 21.1%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n29f21bStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost12-8 | PassOver 4.5 -1428Model 93.4% · Market 93.5%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +1074Model 6.6% · Market 8.5%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1428 → +1074 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n29f21bStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won12-8 | PassUnder 12.5 -251Model 60.7% · Market 71.5%Edge -10.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +208Model 39.3% · Market 32.5%Edge +6.8% · Full Kelly 10.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n29f21bStarts | TotalOpening line 14.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won12-8 | PassUnder 14.5 -458Model 73.7% · Market 82.1%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 14.5 +373Model 26.3% · Market 21.1%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n29f21bStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won12-8 | PassUnder 5.5 +529Model 12.1% · Market 15.9%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -719Model 87.9% · Market 87.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n29f21bStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost12-8 | PassOver 8.5 -191Model 69.4% · Market 65.6%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 10.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +159Model 30.6% · Market 38.6%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +159 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n29f21bStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost12-8 | PassOver 11.5 +158Model 45.4% · Market 39.2%Edge +6.2% · Full Kelly 10.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -175Model 54.6% · Market 64.2%Edge -9.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n29f21bStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won12-8 | PassUnder 7.5 +218Model 24.7% · Market 31.4%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -263Model 75.3% · Market 72.5%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 10.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nf63d65Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassTexas Rangers -137Model 54.4% · Market 57.8%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Mets +109Model 47.6% · Market 47.9%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +109 | 8 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nf63d65Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -116Model 49.8% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 50.4% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.9%-116 → +105Logit -0.197 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nf63d65Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 80.9% · Market 77.3%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 16.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 19.1% · Market 27.3%Edge -8.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nf63d65Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 59.7% · Market 72.5%Edge -12.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 40.3% · Market 31.4%Edge +8.9% · Full Kelly 13.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nf63d65Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 32.0% · Market 24.2%Edge +7.8% · Full Kelly 10.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 68.0% · Market 79.2%Edge -11.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nf63d65Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-3 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 73.7% · Market 84.0%Edge -10.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 26.3% · Market 19.0%Edge +7.3% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nf63d65Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 64.2% · Market 57.3%Edge +7.0% · Full Kelly 17.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 35.8% · Market 46.2%Edge -10.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +119 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nf63d65Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-3 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 25.6% · Market 34.6%Edge -9.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 74.4% · Market 69.5%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 16.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nf63d65Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-3 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 52.9% · Market 64.6%Edge -11.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 47.1% · Market 39.2%Edge +7.9% · Full Kelly 13.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nf63d65Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 7.1% · Market 10.6%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 92.9% · Market 91.6%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 15.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nf63d65Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 88.9% · Market 87.8%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 9.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 11.1% · Market 14.8%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n2493ddStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -116Model 50.1% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +119Model 50.3% · Market 45.7%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -8.0%-116 → +119Logit -0.322 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n2493ddStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMiami Marlins +173Model 42.6% · Market 36.6%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 9.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins +173Model 37.6% · Market 36.6%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+173 → +173Logit 0.000 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n2493ddStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 4.5 -404Model 85.3% · Market 80.2%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 25.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +313Model 14.7% · Market 24.2%Edge -9.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n2493ddStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 11.5 +529Model 24.9% · Market 15.9%Edge +9.0% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -660Model 75.1% · Market 86.8%Edge -11.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n2493ddStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -430Model 67.4% · Market 81.1%Edge -13.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +351Model 32.6% · Market 22.2%Edge +10.4% · Full Kelly 13.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n2493ddStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 8.5 +165Model 49.1% · Market 38.2%Edge +10.9% · Full Kelly 18.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -183Model 50.9% · Market 65.1%Edge -14.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+165 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n2493ddStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 6.5 -142Model 68.0% · Market 58.7%Edge +9.4% · Full Kelly 22.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +129Model 32.0% · Market 44.7%Edge -12.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +129 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n2493ddStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 90.3% · Market 86.8%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 26.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 9.7% · Market 15.9%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n2493ddStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -306Model 60.8% · Market 75.4%Edge -14.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +252Model 39.2% · Market 28.4%Edge +10.7% · Full Kelly 15.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n2493ddStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 5.5 +166Model 24.4% · Market 37.6%Edge -13.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -208Model 75.6% · Market 67.5%Edge +8.1% · Full Kelly 25.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n15a885Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +109Model 50.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +114Model 50.2% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%+109 → +114Logit -0.045 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n15a885Starts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Lost9-1Paper stake $125 · P/L -$125 | Paper betKansas City Royals +119Model 48.4% · Market 45.7%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 1.3% · $125 | Paper betKansas City Royals +119Model 48.4% · Market 45.7%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 1.3% · $125 | +0.0%+119 → +119Logit 0.000 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n15a885Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-1 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 8.4% · Market 8.5%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 91.6% · Market 93.5%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1074 → -1428 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n15a885Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-1 | PassOver 5.5 -430Model 78.2% · Market 81.1%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +351Model 21.8% · Market 22.2%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n15a885Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-1 | PassOver 6.5 -290Model 71.2% · Market 74.4%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +240Model 28.8% · Market 29.4%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n15a885Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-1 | PassUnder 10.5 -199Model 63.8% · Market 66.6%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +166Model 36.2% · Market 37.6%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n15a885Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-1 | PassOver 9.5 +129Model 43.0% · Market 44.2%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -142Model 57.0% · Market 59.2%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n15a885Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-1 | PassUnder 12.5 -404Model 77.2% · Market 80.2%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +331Model 22.8% · Market 23.2%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n15a885Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-1 | PassUnder 7.5 +152Model 39.5% · Market 40.2%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -168Model 60.5% · Market 63.2%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n15a885Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-1 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 28.2% · Market 28.4%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 71.8% · Market 75.4%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n15a885Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-1 | PassUnder 4.5 +685Model 12.9% · Market 12.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -869Model 87.1% · Market 89.7%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n8feca5Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassPittsburgh Pirates -148Model 59.2% · Market 59.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +134Model 41.5% · Market 42.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 4 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n8feca5Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +105Model 48.9% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +124Model 48.3% · Market 44.6%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.1%+105 → +124Logit -0.166 | 3 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n8feca5Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 8.5 -191Model 52.2% · Market 65.6%Edge -13.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +173Model 47.8% · Market 37.6%Edge +10.2% · Full Kelly 17.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n8feca5Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 10.5 +373Model 31.3% · Market 21.1%Edge +10.2% · Full Kelly 12.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -458Model 68.7% · Market 82.1%Edge -13.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n8feca5Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 5.5 -199Model 74.7% · Market 66.6%Edge +8.2% · Full Kelly 24.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +166Model 25.3% · Market 37.6%Edge -12.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n8feca5Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 3.5 -609Model 89.9% · Market 85.9%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 28.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +490Model 10.1% · Market 16.9%Edge -6.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n8feca5Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 4.5 -381Model 84.6% · Market 79.2%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 26.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +313Model 15.4% · Market 24.2%Edge -8.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n8feca5Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -322Model 62.1% · Market 76.3%Edge -14.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +266Model 37.9% · Market 27.3%Edge +10.6% · Full Kelly 14.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n8feca5Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 7.5 +124Model 55.6% · Market 45.2%Edge +10.4% · Full Kelly 19.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -137Model 44.4% · Market 58.2%Edge -13.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -137 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n8feca5Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -660Model 76.2% · Market 86.8%Edge -10.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +529Model 23.8% · Market 15.9%Edge +7.9% · Full Kelly 9.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n5a8a52Starts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Won5-1Paper stake $90 · P/L $170 | Paper betSan Diego Padres +189Model 37.0% · Market 34.6%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.9% · $90 | Paper betSan Diego Padres +189Model 37.0% · Market 34.6%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.9% · $90 | +0.0%+189 → +189Logit 0.000 | 8 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n5a8a52Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -116Model 51.8% · Market 53.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 48.5% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → +101 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n5a8a52Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-1 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 81.8% · Market 85.9%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 18.2% · Market 16.9%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n5a8a52Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-1 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 37.5% · Market 35.6%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 62.5% · Market 68.6%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n5a8a52Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassOver 9.5 +165Model 33.0% · Market 38.2%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 67.0% · Market 65.1%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+165 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n5a8a52Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-1 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 49.4% · Market 46.2%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 6.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 50.6% · Market 57.3%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -131 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n5a8a52Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-1 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 73.3% · Market 72.5%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 26.7% · Market 31.4%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n5a8a52Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-1 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 87.8% · Market 91.6%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 12.2% · Market 11.7%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n5a8a52Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 15.3% · Market 19.0%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 84.7% · Market 84.0%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n5a8a52Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-1 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 80.2% · Market 79.2%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 19.8% · Market 24.2%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n5a8a52Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 29.1% · Market 27.3%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 70.9% · Market 76.3%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nbb02e0Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassHouston Astros +114Model 47.9% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSeattle Mariners -126Model 54.5% · Market 55.8%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -126 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nbb02e0Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 50.4% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 50.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.9%+101 → -107Logit 0.078 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nbb02e0Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 8.5 -137Model 57.6% · Market 58.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +129Model 42.4% · Market 44.2%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +129 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nbb02e0Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 80.6% · Market 82.1%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 19.4% · Market 21.1%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nbb02e0Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 26.4% · Market 28.4%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 73.6% · Market 75.4%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nbb02e0Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 29.4% · Market 30.4%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 70.6% · Market 73.4%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nbb02e0Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 18.4% · Market 19.0%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 81.6% · Market 84.0%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nbb02e0Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 85.0% · Market 85.9%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 15.0% · Market 16.9%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nbb02e0Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +159Model 37.9% · Market 38.6%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -191Model 62.1% · Market 65.6%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+159 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nbb02e0Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -209Model 67.3% · Market 68.1%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +188Model 32.7% · Market 35.2%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-209 → +188 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nbb02e0Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 12.3% · Market 12.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 87.7% · Market 89.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n79a2aaStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 -107Model 47.9% · Market 51.7%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +105Model 48.1% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%-107 → +105Logit -0.116 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n79a2aaStarts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Won3-7Paper stake $138 · P/L $157 | Paper betAthletics +114Model 49.7% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 1.4% · $138 | Paper betAthletics +114Model 49.7% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 1.4% · $138 | +0.0%+114 → +114Logit 0.000 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n79a2aaStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 10.5 +140Model 33.2% · Market 42.2%Edge -9.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +140Model 33.2% · Market 41.7%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%+140 → +140Logit -0.022 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n79a2aaStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassUnder 8.5 +129Model 50.1% · Market 43.7%Edge +6.5% · Full Kelly 11.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -142Model 49.9% · Market 59.7%Edge -9.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n79a2aaStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassUnder 12.5 -306Model 79.7% · Market 75.4%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 17.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +252Model 20.3% · Market 28.4%Edge -8.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n79a2aaStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 6.5 -360Model 68.7% · Market 78.3%Edge -9.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +296Model 31.3% · Market 25.3%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 8.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n79a2aaStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 4.5 -1087Model 85.6% · Market 91.6%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +841Model 14.4% · Market 10.6%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n79a2aaStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 7.5 -208Model 57.6% · Market 67.5%Edge -10.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +173Model 42.4% · Market 36.6%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 9.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n79a2aaStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassOver 11.5 +189Model 25.4% · Market 34.6%Edge -9.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -228Model 74.6% · Market 69.5%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 16.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n79a2aaStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 3.5 -2042Model 90.6% · Market 95.3%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1464Model 9.4% · Market 6.4%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-2042 → +1464 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n79a2aaStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 5.5 -525Model 76.1% · Market 84.0%Edge -7.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +425Model 23.9% · Market 19.0%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n79a2aaStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassOver 13.5 +351Model 14.6% · Market 22.2%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -430Model 85.4% · Market 81.1%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 22.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n8faa52Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassColorado Rockies +140Model 46.6% · Market 41.7%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 8.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassColorado Rockies +140Model 41.0% · Market 41.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+140 → +140Logit 0.000 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n8faa52Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 11.5 +105Model 48.4% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +114Model 48.6% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.1%+105 → +114Logit -0.082 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n8faa52Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-3 | PassOver 5.5 -1087Model 86.9% · Market 91.6%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +841Model 13.1% · Market 10.6%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n8faa52Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-3 | PassUnder 12.5 -161Model 63.1% · Market 62.7%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +146Model 36.9% · Market 40.7%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n8faa52Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-3 | PassOver 8.5 -276Model 67.4% · Market 73.4%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +229Model 32.6% · Market 30.4%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n8faa52Starts | TotalOpening line 14.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-3 | PassOver 14.5 +252Model 24.3% · Market 28.4%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 14.5 -306Model 75.7% · Market 75.4%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n8faa52Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-3 | PassOver 6.5 -660Model 81.9% · Market 86.8%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +529Model 18.1% · Market 15.9%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n8faa52Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -103Model 50.5% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 +114Model 48.3% · Market 47.3%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.5%-103 → +114Logit -0.138 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n8faa52Starts | TotalOpening line 15.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-3 | PassOver 15.5 +373Model 18.9% · Market 21.1%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 15.5 -458Model 81.1% · Market 82.1%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n8faa52Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-3 | PassUnder 9.5 +152Model 41.8% · Market 39.7%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 -183Model 58.2% · Market 64.7%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n8faa52Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-3 | PassUnder 13.5 -239Model 70.8% · Market 70.5%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +198Model 29.2% · Market 33.6%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n8faa52Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-3 | PassUnder 7.5 +313Model 26.4% · Market 24.2%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -381Model 73.6% · Market 79.2%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nb6eeb6Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassTexas Rangers -121Model 54.4% · Market 54.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Mets -112Model 51.8% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-121 → -112 | 6 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nb6eeb6Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -116Model 50.7% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 48.1% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → +105 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nb6eeb6Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-2 | PassUnder 8.5 -131Model 38.9% · Market 57.3%Edge -18.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +119Model 61.1% · Market 46.2%Edge +14.9% · Full Kelly 28.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +119 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nb6eeb6Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-2 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 36.1% · Market 22.2%Edge +13.9% · Full Kelly 17.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 63.9% · Market 81.1%Edge -17.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nb6eeb6Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 90.5% · Market 84.9%Edge +5.6% · Full Kelly 37.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 9.5% · Market 19.0%Edge -9.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nb6eeb6Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -218Model 48.6% · Market 68.6%Edge -20.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +181Model 51.4% · Market 35.6%Edge +15.8% · Full Kelly 24.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nb6eeb6Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassOver 6.5 -191Model 77.5% · Market 66.1%Edge +11.4% · Full Kelly 34.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 22.5% · Market 37.1%Edge -14.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nb6eeb6Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-2 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 16.6% · Market 29.4%Edge -12.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 83.4% · Market 74.4%Edge +9.0% · Full Kelly 35.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nb6eeb6Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-2 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 44.7% · Market 29.4%Edge +15.2% · Full Kelly 21.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 55.3% · Market 74.4%Edge -19.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nb6eeb6Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 6.0% · Market 12.7%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 94.0% · Market 90.6%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 35.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n73ad6fStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +105Model 48.1% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +109Model 48.2% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+105 → +109Logit -0.037 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n73ad6fStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMiami Marlins +146Model 42.0% · Market 40.6%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago Cubs -183Model 64.5% · Market 64.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -183 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n73ad6fStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassOver 7.5 +105Model 50.3% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -148Model 44.1% · Market 60.7%Edge -16.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -148 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n73ad6fStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 8.5 -219Model 51.8% · Market 69.1%Edge -17.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +197Model 48.2% · Market 34.1%Edge +14.1% · Full Kelly 21.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-219 → +197 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n73ad6fStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -360Model 61.7% · Market 78.3%Edge -16.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +296Model 38.3% · Market 25.3%Edge +13.1% · Full Kelly 17.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n73ad6fStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassOver 11.5 +625Model 24.2% · Market 13.8%Edge +10.4% · Full Kelly 12.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -788Model 75.8% · Market 88.7%Edge -12.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n73ad6fStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassOver 3.5 -525Model 90.0% · Market 84.0%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 37.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +425Model 10.0% · Market 19.0%Edge -9.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n73ad6fStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +280Model 15.2% · Market 26.3%Edge -11.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -340Model 84.8% · Market 77.3%Edge +7.6% · Full Kelly 33.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n73ad6fStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassOver 5.5 -183Model 75.0% · Market 64.7%Edge +10.4% · Full Kelly 29.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +152Model 25.0% · Market 39.7%Edge -14.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n73ad6fStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -489Model 68.2% · Market 83.0%Edge -14.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +398Model 31.8% · Market 20.1%Edge +11.7% · Full Kelly 14.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nc89babStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassKansas City Royals -107Model 51.9% · Market 51.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassKansas City Royals +101Model 49.6% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%-107 → +101Logit -0.078 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nc89babStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 50.3% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 50.1% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.1%-112 → -103Logit -0.084 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nc89babStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassUnder 9.5 -161Model 56.4% · Market 62.2%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +140Model 43.6% · Market 41.7%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nc89babStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 12.6% · Market 14.8%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 87.4% · Market 87.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nc89babStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassUnder 6.5 +218Model 28.3% · Market 31.4%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -263Model 71.7% · Market 72.5%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nc89babStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassUnder 10.5 -218Model 63.2% · Market 68.6%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +181Model 36.8% · Market 35.6%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nc89babStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassOver 11.5 +280Model 28.7% · Market 26.3%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 71.3% · Market 77.3%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nc89babStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 76.7% · Market 82.1%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 23.3% · Market 21.1%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nc89babStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassOver 5.5 -360Model 78.6% · Market 78.3%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +296Model 21.4% · Market 25.3%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nc89babStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassUnder 7.5 +134Model 39.0% · Market 43.2%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -148Model 61.0% · Market 60.2%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nc89babStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 91.8% · Market 92.5%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 8.2% · Market 9.6%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +945 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na79ae3Starts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Lost2-3Paper stake $94 · P/L -$94 | Paper betCincinnati Reds +218Model 34.0% · Market 31.4%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.9% · $94 | Paper betCincinnati Reds +229Model 34.0% · Market 30.4%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 1.3% · $131 | -1.1%+218 → +229Logit -0.049 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na79ae3Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -107Model 50.1% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +109Model 50.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.8%-107 → +109Logit -0.154 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na79ae3Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +351Model 14.9% · Market 22.2%Edge -7.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -430Model 85.1% · Market 81.1%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 20.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na79ae3Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 75.4% · Market 84.9%Edge -9.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 24.6% · Market 18.0%Edge +6.6% · Full Kelly 8.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na79ae3Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 10.5 +313Model 32.2% · Market 24.2%Edge +8.0% · Full Kelly 10.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -381Model 67.8% · Market 79.2%Edge -11.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na79ae3Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 6.5 -148Model 67.7% · Market 60.2%Edge +7.5% · Full Kelly 19.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +134Model 32.3% · Market 43.2%Edge -10.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na79ae3Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 8.5 -168Model 51.3% · Market 63.2%Edge -11.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +152Model 48.7% · Market 40.2%Edge +8.5% · Full Kelly 14.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na79ae3Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 5.5 +189Model 24.6% · Market 34.6%Edge -10.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -228Model 75.4% · Market 69.5%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 19.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na79ae3Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 9.5 -276Model 61.2% · Market 73.4%Edge -12.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +229Model 38.8% · Market 30.4%Edge +8.4% · Full Kelly 12.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na79ae3Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 90.2% · Market 86.8%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 25.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 9.8% · Market 15.9%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nb90ab9Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCleveland Guardians +109Model 46.0% · Market 47.9%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCleveland Guardians +119Model 45.1% · Market 45.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.2%+109 → +119Logit -0.088 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nb90ab9Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +105Model 47.9% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +105Model 47.9% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+105 → +105Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nb90ab9Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassOver 8.5 +197Model 50.6% · Market 34.1%Edge +16.4% · Full Kelly 25.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +189Model 50.6% · Market 34.7%Edge +15.9% · Full Kelly 24.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.5%+197 → +189Logit 0.023 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nb90ab9Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-1 | PassOver 9.5 +296Model 40.6% · Market 25.3%Edge +15.3% · Full Kelly 20.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -360Model 59.4% · Market 78.3%Edge -18.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nb90ab9Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-1 | PassOver 7.5 -107Model 50.8% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -168Model 41.8% · Market 62.7%Edge -20.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -168 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nb90ab9Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-1 | PassOver 3.5 -525Model 90.8% · Market 84.0%Edge +6.8% · Full Kelly 42.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +425Model 9.2% · Market 19.0%Edge -9.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nb90ab9Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 10.5 -489Model 66.1% · Market 83.0%Edge -16.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +398Model 33.9% · Market 20.1%Edge +13.8% · Full Kelly 17.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nb90ab9Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 5.5 +146Model 23.3% · Market 40.7%Edge -17.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -175Model 76.7% · Market 63.6%Edge +13.0% · Full Kelly 35.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nb90ab9Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-1 | PassOver 4.5 -340Model 86.0% · Market 77.3%Edge +8.7% · Full Kelly 38.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +280Model 14.0% · Market 26.3%Edge -12.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nb90ab9Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 11.5 -788Model 73.9% · Market 88.7%Edge -14.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +625Model 26.1% · Market 13.8%Edge +12.3% · Full Kelly 14.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66ne70f38Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +109Model 48.7% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +101Model 48.8% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.9%+109 → +101Logit 0.076 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66ne70f38Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Yankees -131Model 55.9% · Market 56.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTampa Bay Rays +119Model 45.6% · Market 45.7%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +119 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66ne70f38Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-9 | PassOver 5.5 -161Model 71.6% · Market 61.7%Edge +9.9% · Full Kelly 25.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +134Model 28.4% · Market 42.7%Edge -14.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66ne70f38Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-9 | PassOver 3.5 -489Model 88.2% · Market 83.0%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 30.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +398Model 11.8% · Market 20.1%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66ne70f38Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-9 | PassUnder 8.5 -229Model 56.3% · Market 70.6%Edge -14.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +208Model 43.7% · Market 32.6%Edge +11.1% · Full Kelly 16.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-229 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66ne70f38Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-9 | PassUnder 10.5 -564Model 72.5% · Market 84.9%Edge -12.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +456Model 27.5% · Market 18.0%Edge +9.5% · Full Kelly 11.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66ne70f38Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-9 | PassOver 7.5 +105Model 49.8% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +152Model 51.6% · Market 40.2%Edge +11.4% · Full Kelly 19.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -8.6%+105 → +152Logit -0.350 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66ne70f38Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-9 | PassOver 11.5 +685Model 20.4% · Market 12.7%Edge +7.7% · Full Kelly 8.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -869Model 79.6% · Market 89.7%Edge -10.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66ne70f38Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-9 | PassUnder 4.5 +252Model 17.6% · Market 28.4%Edge -10.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -306Model 82.4% · Market 75.4%Edge +7.0% · Full Kelly 28.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66ne70f38Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-9 | PassOver 9.5 +331Model 33.9% · Market 23.2%Edge +10.7% · Full Kelly 13.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -404Model 66.1% · Market 80.2%Edge -14.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n9bfe6eStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -112Model 49.8% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +114Model 49.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -6.1%-112 → +114Logit -0.244 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n9bfe6eStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassPhiladelphia Phillies +109Model 48.4% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMilwaukee Brewers -126Model 53.9% · Market 55.8%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+109 → -126 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n9bfe6eStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-1 | PassUnder 8.5 -183Model 55.0% · Market 65.1%Edge -10.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +165Model 45.0% · Market 38.7%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 11.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n9bfe6eStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-1 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 11.3% · Market 15.9%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 88.7% · Market 86.8%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 14.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n9bfe6eStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-1 | PassUnder 10.5 -404Model 71.3% · Market 80.2%Edge -8.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +331Model 28.7% · Market 23.2%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 7.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n9bfe6eStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-1 | PassUnder 5.5 +181Model 27.5% · Market 35.6%Edge -8.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -218Model 72.5% · Market 68.6%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 12.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n9bfe6eStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-1 | PassUnder 9.5 -290Model 64.8% · Market 74.4%Edge -9.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +240Model 35.2% · Market 29.4%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 8.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n9bfe6eStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-1 | PassUnder 4.5 +331Model 17.0% · Market 23.2%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -404Model 83.0% · Market 80.2%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 14.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n9bfe6eStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-1 | PassOver 11.5 +529Model 21.4% · Market 15.9%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -660Model 78.6% · Market 86.8%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n9bfe6eStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-1 | PassUnder 6.5 +129Model 35.6% · Market 44.7%Edge -9.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -142Model 64.4% · Market 58.7%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 14.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nd7e907Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassPittsburgh Pirates -131Model 55.3% · Market 56.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassPittsburgh Pirates -142Model 57.5% · Market 58.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.0%-131 → -142Logit 0.081 | 8 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nd7e907Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -112Model 50.0% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +101Model 50.4% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → +101 | 4 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nd7e907Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-1 | PassUnder 8.5 -161Model 50.3% · Market 62.2%Edge -11.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +146Model 49.7% · Market 40.7%Edge +9.0% · Full Kelly 15.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nd7e907Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassOver 9.5 +218Model 39.7% · Market 31.4%Edge +8.3% · Full Kelly 12.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -263Model 60.3% · Market 72.5%Edge -12.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nd7e907Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassOver 6.5 -154Model 68.5% · Market 60.7%Edge +7.8% · Full Kelly 20.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +140Model 31.5% · Market 42.7%Edge -11.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-154 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nd7e907Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 9.5% · Market 14.8%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -719Model 90.5% · Market 87.8%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 22.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nd7e907Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassUnder 4.5 +351Model 14.4% · Market 22.2%Edge -7.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -430Model 85.6% · Market 81.1%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 23.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nd7e907Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassUnder 5.5 +189Model 23.9% · Market 34.6%Edge -10.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -228Model 76.1% · Market 69.5%Edge +6.6% · Full Kelly 21.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nd7e907Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-1 | PassUnder 10.5 -360Model 66.9% · Market 78.3%Edge -11.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +296Model 33.1% · Market 25.3%Edge +7.8% · Full Kelly 10.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nd7e907Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-1 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 74.7% · Market 84.9%Edge -10.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 25.3% · Market 18.0%Edge +7.3% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66ndea23fStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 49.9% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -107Model 50.8% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+109 → -107 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66ndea23fStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassToronto Blue Jays -103Model 49.8% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBaltimore Orioles -121Model 54.5% · Market 54.8%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -121 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66ndea23fStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.1% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +129Model 52.8% · Market 43.7%Edge +9.1% · Full Kelly 16.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -6.1%+101 → +129Logit -0.245 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66ndea23fStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 9.5 +188Model 42.8% · Market 34.7%Edge +8.1% · Full Kelly 12.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -209Model 57.2% · Market 67.6%Edge -10.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+188 → -209 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n64b632Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Francisco Giants +109Model 53.1% · Market 47.9%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 10.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants +129Model 47.0% · Market 43.7%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.2%+109 → +129Logit -0.169 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n64b632Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.4% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.0% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%-103 → +105Logit -0.078 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n64b632Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 48.3% · Market 47.3%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -131Model 54.0% · Market 56.7%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -131 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n64b632Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 31.8% · Market 30.4%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 68.2% · Market 73.4%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n64b632Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 75.9% · Market 81.1%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 24.1% · Market 22.2%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n64b632Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 10.0% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 90.0% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n64b632Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 38.4% · Market 36.6%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -208Model 61.6% · Market 67.5%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n64b632Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +180Model 32.7% · Market 36.2%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -200Model 67.3% · Market 67.1%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+180 → -200 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n64b632Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 15.2% · Market 18.0%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 84.8% · Market 84.9%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n64b632Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 25.0% · Market 28.4%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 75.0% · Market 75.4%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n575651Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassUnder 6.5 +124Model 31.1% · Market 44.6%Edge -13.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -148Model 68.9% · Market 59.7%Edge +9.2% · Full Kelly 22.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n575651Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 10.5 +313Model 33.5% · Market 24.2%Edge +9.3% · Full Kelly 12.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -381Model 66.5% · Market 79.2%Edge -12.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n575651Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassUnder 8.5 -175Model 49.9% · Market 64.2%Edge -14.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +158Model 50.1% · Market 39.2%Edge +10.9% · Full Kelly 18.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n575651Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassUnder 9.5 -252Model 59.8% · Market 72.5%Edge -12.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +229Model 40.2% · Market 30.5%Edge +9.6% · Full Kelly 14.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-252 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n575651Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassUnder 11.5 -609Model 74.3% · Market 85.9%Edge -11.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +490Model 25.7% · Market 16.9%Edge +8.7% · Full Kelly 10.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n575651Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassUnder 4.5 +331Model 14.2% · Market 23.2%Edge -9.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -404Model 85.8% · Market 80.2%Edge +5.6% · Full Kelly 28.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n575651Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassUnder 5.5 +173Model 23.7% · Market 36.6%Edge -13.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -208Model 76.3% · Market 67.5%Edge +8.8% · Full Kelly 27.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n575651Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 9.3% · Market 14.8%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -719Model 90.7% · Market 87.8%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 23.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n93df0aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers -137Model 57.4% · Market 57.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers -175Model 65.4% · Market 63.6%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +5.8%-137 → -175Logit 0.245 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n93df0aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 50.3% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 50.2% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%-107 → +101Logit -0.078 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n93df0aStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 11.4% · Market 13.8%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 88.6% · Market 89.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n93df0aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -142Model 55.4% · Market 59.2%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -142 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n93df0aStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassOver 9.5 +189Model 34.8% · Market 34.6%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -228Model 65.2% · Market 69.5%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n93df0aStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 82.9% · Market 84.0%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 17.1% · Market 19.0%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n93df0aStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 28.4% · Market 28.4%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 71.6% · Market 75.4%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n93df0aStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 78.8% · Market 82.1%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 21.2% · Market 21.1%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n93df0aStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassOver 12.5 +529Model 16.5% · Market 15.9%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -660Model 83.5% · Market 86.8%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n93df0aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassOver 6.5 -191Model 64.2% · Market 66.1%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 35.8% · Market 37.1%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n93df0aStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 72.4% · Market 73.4%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 27.6% · Market 30.4%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n8feb76Starts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Won0-7Paper stake $121 · P/L $92 | Paper betLos Angeles Dodgers -131Model 58.8% · Market 56.7%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 1.2% · $121 | Paper betLos Angeles Dodgers -131Model 58.8% · Market 56.7%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 1.2% · $121 | +0.0%-131 → -131Logit 0.000 | 6 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n8feb76Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 48.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 50.8% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -107 | 5 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n8feb76Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-7 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 19.1% · Market 20.1%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 80.9% · Market 83.0%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n8feb76Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-7 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 84.8% · Market 86.8%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 15.2% · Market 15.9%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n8feb76Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-7 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 61.7% · Market 64.2%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 38.3% · Market 39.2%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n8feb76Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-7 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 56.0% · Market 58.2%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 44.0% · Market 45.2%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n8feb76Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-7 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 31.7% · Market 33.6%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 68.3% · Market 70.5%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n8feb76Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-7 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 10.0% · Market 10.6%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 90.0% · Market 91.6%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n8feb76Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-7 | PassOver 5.5 -360Model 75.0% · Market 78.3%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +296Model 25.0% · Market 25.3%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n8feb76Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-7 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 32.7% · Market 34.6%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 67.3% · Market 69.5%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n8feb76Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-7 | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 24.1% · Market 25.3%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 75.9% · Market 78.3%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n87d2d7Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -121Model 50.6% · Market 54.8%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +114Model 49.5% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-121 → +114 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n87d2d7Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Francisco Giants +105Model 52.7% · Market 48.8%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 7.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants +114Model 48.2% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.1%+105 → +114Logit -0.082 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n87d2d7Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +140Model 38.1% · Market 42.7%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -155Model 61.9% · Market 61.2%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -155 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n87d2d7Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassOver 9.5 +229Model 32.4% · Market 30.4%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -276Model 67.6% · Market 73.4%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n87d2d7Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 8.5 -161Model 57.8% · Market 62.7%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +146Model 42.2% · Market 40.7%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n87d2d7Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassOver 4.5 -458Model 81.4% · Market 82.1%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +351Model 18.6% · Market 22.2%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n87d2d7Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassOver 10.5 +313Model 26.2% · Market 24.2%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -381Model 73.8% · Market 79.2%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n87d2d7Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 80.8% · Market 84.9%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 19.2% · Market 18.0%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n87d2d7Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassOver 3.5 -719Model 87.6% · Market 87.8%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 12.4% · Market 14.8%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n87d2d7Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 5.5 +189Model 29.6% · Market 34.6%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -228Model 70.4% · Market 69.5%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n76ed43Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 -103Model 48.0% · Market 50.7%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -107Model 52.1% · Market 51.7%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -107 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n76ed43Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels -116Model 51.0% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Angels -112Model 53.4% · Market 52.8%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%-116 → -112Logit -0.035 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n76ed43Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-9 | PassOver 10.5 +119Model 47.1% · Market 45.7%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -148Model 68.4% · Market 59.7%Edge +8.7% · Full Kelly 21.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -148 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n76ed43Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-9 | PassUnder 6.5 +313Model 32.8% · Market 24.2%Edge +8.6% · Full Kelly 11.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -381Model 67.2% · Market 79.2%Edge -12.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n76ed43Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-9 | PassUnder 5.5 +456Model 25.1% · Market 18.0%Edge +7.1% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -564Model 74.9% · Market 84.9%Edge -10.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n76ed43Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-9 | PassOver 12.5 +252Model 19.0% · Market 28.4%Edge -9.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -306Model 81.0% · Market 75.4%Edge +5.6% · Full Kelly 22.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n76ed43Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-9 | PassUnder 7.5 +189Model 44.0% · Market 34.6%Edge +9.4% · Full Kelly 14.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -228Model 56.0% · Market 69.5%Edge -13.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n76ed43Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-9 | PassUnder 8.5 +140Model 51.8% · Market 42.2%Edge +9.6% · Full Kelly 17.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -155Model 48.2% · Market 61.2%Edge -13.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -155 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n76ed43Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-9 | PassUnder 11.5 -228Model 76.0% · Market 69.5%Edge +6.5% · Full Kelly 21.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +189Model 24.0% · Market 34.6%Edge -10.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n76ed43Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-9 | PassUnder 4.5 +841Model 15.2% · Market 10.6%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 5.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -1087Model 84.8% · Market 91.6%Edge -6.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n76ed43Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-9 | PassUnder 13.5 -430Model 86.5% · Market 81.1%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 28.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +351Model 13.5% · Market 22.2%Edge -8.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n76ed43Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-9 | PassOver 3.5 -2042Model 90.0% · Market 95.3%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1464Model 10.0% · Market 6.4%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-2042 → +1464 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n8ac9faStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassHouston Astros +114Model 44.3% · Market 46.7%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSeattle Mariners -137Model 59.2% · Market 57.8%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -137 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n8ac9faStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -116Model 51.1% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +109Model 49.1% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → +109 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n8ac9faStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-0 | PassUnder 10.5 -381Model 76.1% · Market 79.2%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +313Model 23.9% · Market 24.2%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n8ac9faStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-0 | PassUnder 5.5 +189Model 31.7% · Market 34.6%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -228Model 68.3% · Market 69.5%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n8ac9faStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-0 | PassOver 9.5 +229Model 30.0% · Market 30.4%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -276Model 70.0% · Market 73.4%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n8ac9faStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-0 | PassUnder 4.5 +351Model 20.1% · Market 22.2%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -430Model 79.9% · Market 81.1%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n8ac9faStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-0 | PassUnder 8.5 -175Model 60.5% · Market 63.6%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +158Model 39.5% · Market 39.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n8ac9faStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-0 | PassOver 11.5 +490Model 17.4% · Market 16.9%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -609Model 82.6% · Market 85.9%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n8ac9faStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-0 | PassOver 6.5 -154Model 59.4% · Market 60.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +140Model 40.6% · Market 42.7%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-154 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n8ac9faStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-0 | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 86.4% · Market 86.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 13.6% · Market 15.9%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n645beaStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -103Model 50.4% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 +109Model 50.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%-103 → +109Logit -0.116 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n645beaStarts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Lost7-2Paper stake $148 · P/L -$148 | Paper betColorado Rockies +166Model 41.3% · Market 37.6%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 1.5% · $148 | PassColorado Rockies +152Model 41.3% · Market 39.7%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.1%+166 → +152Logit 0.088 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n645beaStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-2 | PassOver 9.5 -161Model 58.5% · Market 62.2%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 +146Model 41.5% · Market 41.2%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n645beaStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassOver 11.5 +101Model 48.4% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +119Model 43.3% · Market 46.2%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.6%+101 → +119Logit -0.142 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n645beaStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-2 | PassUnder 7.5 +296Model 26.2% · Market 25.3%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -360Model 73.8% · Market 78.3%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n645beaStarts | TotalOpening line 14.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassUnder 14.5 -322Model 75.4% · Market 76.3%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 14.5 +266Model 24.6% · Market 27.3%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n645beaStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassOver 8.5 -263Model 67.6% · Market 72.5%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +218Model 32.4% · Market 31.4%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n645beaStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassUnder 12.5 -175Model 62.8% · Market 63.6%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +146Model 37.2% · Market 40.7%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n645beaStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-2 | PassOver 13.5 +208Model 29.5% · Market 32.5%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -251Model 70.5% · Market 71.5%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n645beaStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassOver 5.5 -1087Model 87.0% · Market 91.6%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +841Model 13.0% · Market 10.6%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n645beaStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +529Model 17.9% · Market 15.9%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -660Model 82.1% · Market 86.8%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n645beaStarts | TotalOpening line 15.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-2 | PassOver 15.5 +373Model 19.1% · Market 21.1%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 15.5 -458Model 80.9% · Market 82.1%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n055365Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 50.0% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 50.0% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+105 → +101Logit 0.039 | 3 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n055365Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassTexas Rangers -126Model 54.7% · Market 55.8%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Mets +105Model 47.4% · Market 48.8%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-126 → +105 | 7 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n055365Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassUnder 6.5 +188Model 27.6% · Market 35.2%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -209Model 72.4% · Market 68.1%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 14.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+188 → -209 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n055365Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 12.2% · Market 16.9%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 87.8% · Market 85.9%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 13.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n055365Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 92.1% · Market 91.6%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 7.9% · Market 11.7%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n055365Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassUnder 7.5 -112Model 49.8% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 38.2% · Market 46.2%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -6.6%-112 → +119Logit -0.266 | 5 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n055365Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassOver 9.5 +166Model 44.5% · Market 37.6%Edge +6.9% · Full Kelly 11.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -199Model 55.5% · Market 66.6%Edge -11.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n055365Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 20.8% · Market 27.3%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 79.2% · Market 76.3%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 12.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n055365Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 70.5% · Market 80.2%Edge -9.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 29.5% · Market 23.2%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 8.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n055365Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 37.7% · Market 31.4%Edge +6.2% · Full Kelly 9.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 62.3% · Market 72.5%Edge -10.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n0afdbeStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.3% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.4% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%-103 → +105Logit -0.078 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n0afdbeStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassKansas City Royals +101Model 47.8% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassKansas City Royals +101Model 49.5% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+101 → +101Logit 0.000 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n0afdbeStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won14-11 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 13.6% · Market 18.0%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 86.4% · Market 84.9%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 9.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n0afdbeStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won14-11 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 73.1% · Market 81.1%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 26.9% · Market 22.2%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n0afdbeStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won14-11 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 65.2% · Market 73.4%Edge -8.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 34.8% · Market 30.4%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n0afdbeStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won14-11 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.7% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +119Model 51.5% · Market 46.2%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.6%+105 → +119Logit -0.104 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n0afdbeStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost14-11 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 21.6% · Market 18.0%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 78.4% · Market 84.9%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n0afdbeStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost14-11 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 77.3% · Market 74.4%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 11.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 22.7% · Market 29.4%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n0afdbeStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost14-11 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 91.1% · Market 89.7%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 14.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 8.9% · Market 12.7%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n0afdbeStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won14-11 | PassUnder 9.5 -200Model 58.5% · Market 67.1%Edge -8.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +180Model 41.5% · Market 36.2%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n0afdbeStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won14-11 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 30.0% · Market 37.6%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 70.0% · Market 67.5%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 7.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nca7921Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +105Model 48.2% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +101Model 48.3% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+105 → +101Logit 0.039 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nca7921Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMiami Marlins +159Model 43.4% · Market 38.6%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 7.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins +173Model 36.2% · Market 36.6%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%+159 → +173Logit -0.084 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nca7921Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-2 | PassOver 7.5 +146Model 55.2% · Market 41.2%Edge +14.1% · Full Kelly 24.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -161Model 44.8% · Market 62.2%Edge -17.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nca7921Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-2 | PassOver 5.5 -168Model 74.5% · Market 62.7%Edge +11.8% · Full Kelly 31.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +140Model 25.5% · Market 41.7%Edge -16.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nca7921Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +425Model 10.3% · Market 19.0%Edge -8.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -525Model 89.7% · Market 84.0%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 35.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nca7921Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +280Model 15.5% · Market 26.3%Edge -10.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -340Model 84.5% · Market 77.3%Edge +7.2% · Full Kelly 31.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nca7921Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-2 | PassUnder 8.5 -219Model 52.5% · Market 69.6%Edge -17.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +198Model 47.5% · Market 33.6%Edge +13.9% · Full Kelly 21.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-219 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nca7921Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -381Model 62.4% · Market 79.2%Edge -16.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +313Model 37.6% · Market 24.2%Edge +13.4% · Full Kelly 17.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nca7921Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-2 | PassOver 11.5 +685Model 23.6% · Market 12.7%Edge +10.9% · Full Kelly 12.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -869Model 76.4% · Market 89.7%Edge -13.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nca7921Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-2 | PassOver 10.5 +425Model 31.1% · Market 19.0%Edge +12.1% · Full Kelly 14.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -525Model 68.9% · Market 84.0%Edge -15.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n5cfddfStarts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Won4-0Paper stake $102 · P/L $202 | Paper betCincinnati Reds +198Model 36.3% · Market 33.6%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 1.0% · $102 | Paper betCincinnati Reds +198Model 36.3% · Market 33.6%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 1.0% · $102 | +0.0%+198 → +198Logit 0.000 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n5cfddfStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 -107Model 48.1% · Market 51.7%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +101Model 48.6% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%-107 → +101Logit -0.078 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n5cfddfStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1241Model 8.2% · Market 7.5%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1684Model 91.8% · Market 94.4%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1241 → -1684 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n5cfddfStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-0 | PassUnder 4.5 +841Model 12.6% · Market 10.6%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -1087Model 87.4% · Market 91.6%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n5cfddfStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-0 | PassOver 12.5 +266Model 23.3% · Market 27.3%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -322Model 76.7% · Market 76.3%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n5cfddfStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-0 | PassUnder 8.5 +134Model 46.5% · Market 43.2%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -148Model 53.5% · Market 60.2%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n5cfddfStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-0 | PassOver 13.5 +373Model 17.1% · Market 21.1%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -458Model 82.9% · Market 82.1%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n5cfddfStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-0 | PassUnder 6.5 +280Model 28.3% · Market 26.3%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -360Model 71.7% · Market 78.3%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n5cfddfStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-0 | PassUnder 11.5 -239Model 71.2% · Market 70.5%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +198Model 28.8% · Market 33.6%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n5cfddfStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-0 | PassUnder 5.5 +425Model 21.3% · Market 19.0%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -525Model 78.7% · Market 84.0%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n5cfddfStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-0 | PassOver 7.5 -218Model 61.0% · Market 68.6%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +173Model 39.0% · Market 36.6%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n5cfddfStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-0 | PassOver 10.5 +146Model 36.9% · Market 41.7%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -161Model 63.1% · Market 61.7%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n20e1efStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 -112Model 48.9% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 +114Model 51.5% · Market 46.7%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → +114 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n20e1efStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Yankees -112Model 55.7% · Market 52.8%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTampa Bay Rays +119Model 44.9% · Market 45.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → +119 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n20e1efStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-1 | PassOver 5.5 -137Model 73.6% · Market 57.8%Edge +15.7% · Full Kelly 37.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +124Model 26.4% · Market 45.7%Edge -19.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n20e1efStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-1 | PassOver 3.5 -404Model 89.3% · Market 80.2%Edge +9.1% · Full Kelly 45.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +331Model 10.7% · Market 23.2%Edge -12.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n20e1efStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-1 | PassOver 8.5 +240Model 46.3% · Market 29.4%Edge +16.9% · Full Kelly 23.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -290Model 53.7% · Market 74.4%Edge -20.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n20e1efStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-1 | PassOver 11.5 +841Model 22.4% · Market 10.6%Edge +11.8% · Full Kelly 13.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -1087Model 77.6% · Market 91.6%Edge -14.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n20e1efStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-1 | PassOver 10.5 +529Model 29.8% · Market 15.9%Edge +13.9% · Full Kelly 16.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -660Model 70.2% · Market 86.8%Edge -16.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n20e1efStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-1 | PassUnder 9.5 -489Model 63.6% · Market 83.0%Edge -19.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +398Model 36.4% · Market 20.1%Edge +16.3% · Full Kelly 20.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n20e1efStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-1 | PassUnder 7.5 -200Model 45.9% · Market 67.1%Edge -21.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +180Model 54.1% · Market 36.2%Edge +17.9% · Full Kelly 28.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n20e1efStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-1 | PassUnder 4.5 +229Model 16.2% · Market 30.4%Edge -14.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -276Model 83.8% · Market 73.4%Edge +10.4% · Full Kelly 39.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n4f40b5Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCleveland Guardians +105Model 46.7% · Market 48.8%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBoston Red Sox -126Model 54.9% · Market 55.8%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -126 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n4f40b5Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 -107Model 48.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 +109Model 51.5% · Market 47.9%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → +109 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n4f40b5Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -967Model 78.1% · Market 90.6%Edge -12.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +756Model 21.9% · Market 11.7%Edge +10.3% · Full Kelly 11.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n4f40b5Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -458Model 64.2% · Market 82.1%Edge -17.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +373Model 35.8% · Market 21.1%Edge +14.6% · Full Kelly 18.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n4f40b5Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +229Model 16.6% · Market 30.4%Edge -13.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -276Model 83.4% · Market 73.4%Edge +10.0% · Full Kelly 37.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n4f40b5Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassOver 8.5 +240Model 45.6% · Market 29.4%Edge +16.2% · Full Kelly 23.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -290Model 54.4% · Market 74.4%Edge -20.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n4f40b5Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 7.5 -191Model 46.5% · Market 66.1%Edge -19.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +173Model 53.5% · Market 37.1%Edge +16.4% · Full Kelly 26.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n4f40b5Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassOver 10.5 +490Model 29.3% · Market 16.9%Edge +12.3% · Full Kelly 14.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -609Model 70.7% · Market 85.9%Edge -15.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n4f40b5Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassOver 5.5 -137Model 73.1% · Market 58.2%Edge +14.8% · Full Kelly 36.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +124Model 26.9% · Market 45.2%Edge -18.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n4f40b5Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +351Model 11.0% · Market 22.2%Edge -11.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -430Model 89.0% · Market 81.1%Edge +7.9% · Full Kelly 41.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n486235Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers -142Model 59.1% · Market 58.7%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers -154Model 60.7% · Market 60.6%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.9%-142 → -154Logit 0.081 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n486235Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 48.9% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 48.9% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%-107 → +105Logit -0.116 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n486235Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-1 | PassOver 9.5 +165Model 35.7% · Market 38.2%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 64.3% · Market 65.1%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+165 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n486235Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-1 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 46.6% · Market 45.7%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 53.4% · Market 57.3%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -131 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n486235Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-1 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 70.7% · Market 71.5%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 29.3% · Market 32.5%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n486235Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-1 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 82.8% · Market 84.0%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 17.2% · Market 19.0%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n486235Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-1 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 73.1% · Market 76.3%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 26.9% · Market 27.3%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n486235Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-1 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 65.0% · Market 69.5%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 35.0% · Market 34.6%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n486235Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-1 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 78.0% · Market 79.2%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 22.0% · Market 24.2%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n486235Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-1 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 83.5% · Market 86.8%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 16.5% · Market 15.9%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n486235Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-1 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 11.0% · Market 11.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 89.0% · Market 90.6%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n673e9aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -107Model 50.0% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +109Model 50.1% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.8%-107 → +109Logit -0.154 | 4 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n673e9aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +119Model 44.7% · Market 45.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +134Model 43.7% · Market 42.7%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%+119 → +134Logit -0.118 | 6 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n673e9aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 6.5 -142Model 66.5% · Market 59.2%Edge +7.3% · Full Kelly 18.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +134Model 33.5% · Market 43.7%Edge -10.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n673e9aStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 10.5 +331Model 30.8% · Market 23.2%Edge +7.6% · Full Kelly 9.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -404Model 69.2% · Market 80.2%Edge -11.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n673e9aStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -290Model 62.7% · Market 74.4%Edge -11.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +240Model 37.3% · Market 29.4%Edge +7.9% · Full Kelly 11.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n673e9aStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 10.3% · Market 15.9%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 89.7% · Market 86.8%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 21.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n673e9aStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 11.5 +490Model 23.3% · Market 16.9%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 7.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -609Model 76.7% · Market 85.9%Edge -9.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n673e9aStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 5.5 +181Model 25.7% · Market 35.6%Edge -9.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -218Model 74.3% · Market 68.6%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 18.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n673e9aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 8.5 -175Model 52.7% · Market 64.2%Edge -11.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +158Model 47.3% · Market 39.2%Edge +8.0% · Full Kelly 13.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n673e9aStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +351Model 15.7% · Market 22.2%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -430Model 84.3% · Market 81.1%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 17.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n918f4aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassPhiladelphia Phillies -126Model 54.6% · Market 55.8%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMilwaukee Brewers +124Model 45.8% · Market 44.6%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-126 → +124 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n918f4aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -103Model 49.8% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +114Model 49.7% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%-103 → +114Logit -0.161 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n918f4aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +140Model 36.2% · Market 42.7%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -148Model 63.8% · Market 59.7%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 10.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n918f4aStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 88.4% · Market 86.8%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 12.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 11.6% · Market 15.9%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n918f4aStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 79.2% · Market 84.9%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 20.8% · Market 18.0%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n918f4aStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -276Model 65.6% · Market 73.4%Edge -7.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +229Model 34.4% · Market 30.4%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 5.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n918f4aStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassOver 10.5 +313Model 28.0% · Market 24.2%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -381Model 72.0% · Market 79.2%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n918f4aStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassOver 4.5 -430Model 82.6% · Market 81.1%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 8.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +351Model 17.4% · Market 22.2%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n918f4aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassOver 8.5 +152Model 44.2% · Market 40.2%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 7.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -168Model 55.8% · Market 63.2%Edge -7.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n918f4aStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 5.5 +181Model 28.0% · Market 35.6%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -218Model 72.0% · Market 68.6%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 10.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n575651Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -112Model 49.9% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +105Model 50.3% · Market 47.6%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → +105 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n575651Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBaltimore Orioles -121Model 55.1% · Market 54.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassToronto Blue Jays +101Model 48.2% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-121 → +101 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n113b8eStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +105Model 48.6% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +109Model 47.9% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+105 → +109Logit -0.037 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n113b8eStarts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Lost0-2Paper stake $183 · P/L -$183 | Paper betTampa Bay Rays +134Model 46.9% · Market 42.7%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 7.3%Policy Kelly 1.8% · $183 | Paper betTampa Bay Rays +134Model 46.9% · Market 42.7%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 7.3%Policy Kelly 1.8% · $183 | +0.0%+134 → +134Logit 0.000 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n113b8eStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 9.5 +307Model 41.1% · Market 25.4%Edge +15.6% · Full Kelly 21.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -326Model 58.9% · Market 76.9%Edge -18.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+307 → -326 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n113b8eStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 5.5 -183Model 76.9% · Market 65.1%Edge +11.8% · Full Kelly 34.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +158Model 23.1% · Market 39.2%Edge -16.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n113b8eStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +456Model 9.0% · Market 18.0%Edge -9.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -564Model 91.0% · Market 84.9%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 40.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n113b8eStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -719Model 73.5% · Market 87.8%Edge -14.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +574Model 26.5% · Market 14.8%Edge +11.6% · Full Kelly 13.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n113b8eStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassOver 7.5 +105Model 49.8% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +134Model 58.7% · Market 43.2%Edge +15.5% · Full Kelly 27.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.6%+105 → +134Logit -0.225 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n113b8eStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 8.5 -209Model 49.0% · Market 68.6%Edge -19.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +189Model 51.0% · Market 34.7%Edge +16.4% · Full Kelly 25.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-209 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n113b8eStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 10.5 +414Model 34.3% · Market 20.8%Edge +13.5% · Full Kelly 18.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -430Model 65.7% · Market 81.8%Edge -16.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+414 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n113b8eStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +296Model 13.8% · Market 25.4%Edge -11.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -345Model 86.2% · Market 77.9%Edge +8.3% · Full Kelly 38.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -345 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n099dcfStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Francisco Giants -116Model 53.0% · Market 53.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants +109Model 45.8% · Market 47.9%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.9%-116 → +109Logit -0.234 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n099dcfStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Pending2-5 | PassUnder 7.5 +114Model 50.2% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +114Model 50.4% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+114 → +114Logit 0.000 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n099dcfStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Pending2-5 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 48.5% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 48.6% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+101 → +105Logit -0.039 | 7 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n099dcfStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-5 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 88.0% · Market 90.6%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 12.0% · Market 11.7%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n099dcfStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-5 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 72.8% · Market 71.5%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 27.2% · Market 32.5%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n099dcfStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-5 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 84.4% · Market 84.0%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 15.6% · Market 19.0%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n099dcfStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-5 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 71.3% · Market 76.3%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 28.7% · Market 27.3%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n099dcfStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 79.9% · Market 80.2%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 20.1% · Market 23.2%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n099dcfStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-5 | PassUnder 6.5 +197Model 37.0% · Market 34.6%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 5.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 63.0% · Market 68.6%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+197 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n099dcfStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-5 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 82.1% · Market 85.9%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 17.9% · Market 16.9%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n099dcfStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-5 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 66.5% · Market 65.6%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +159Model 33.5% · Market 38.6%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +159 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nfb9155Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 48.7% · Market 51.7%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 51.3% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -103 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nfb9155Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals +124Model 41.8% · Market 44.6%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers -137Model 61.8% · Market 57.8%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 9.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -137 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nfb9155Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-9 | PassUnder 10.5 -228Model 72.3% · Market 69.5%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +189Model 27.7% · Market 34.6%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nfb9155Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-9 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 17.5% · Market 14.8%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 82.5% · Market 87.8%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nfb9155Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-9 | PassOver 6.5 -251Model 63.5% · Market 71.5%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +208Model 36.5% · Market 32.5%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nfb9155Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-9 | PassUnder 9.5 -161Model 65.9% · Market 62.2%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 10.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +146Model 34.1% · Market 41.2%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nfb9155Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-9 | PassOver 5.5 -360Model 71.8% · Market 78.3%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +296Model 28.2% · Market 25.3%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nfb9155Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-9 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 11.7% · Market 10.6%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 88.3% · Market 91.6%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nfb9155Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-9 | PassUnder 7.5 +134Model 48.2% · Market 43.2%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 9.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -148Model 51.8% · Market 60.2%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nfb9155Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-9 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 16.0% · Market 21.1%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 84.0% · Market 82.1%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nfb9155Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-9 | PassOver 11.5 +280Model 20.6% · Market 26.3%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 79.4% · Market 77.3%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 9.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n286418Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassToronto Blue Jays -107Model 50.1% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBaltimore Orioles -107Model 50.1% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -107 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n286418Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -121Model 50.4% · Market 54.8%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +101Model 50.5% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.0%-121 → +101Logit -0.201 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n286418Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 8.5 -154Model 49.4% · Market 60.7%Edge -11.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +140Model 50.6% · Market 42.7%Edge +8.0% · Full Kelly 15.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-154 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n286418Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 9.5 +208Model 40.7% · Market 32.5%Edge +8.2% · Full Kelly 12.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -251Model 59.3% · Market 71.5%Edge -12.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n286418Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 5.5 -251Model 76.7% · Market 71.5%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 18.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +208Model 23.3% · Market 32.5%Edge -9.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n286418Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 90.8% · Market 88.7%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 18.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 9.2% · Market 13.8%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n286418Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 14.0% · Market 20.1%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -489Model 86.0% · Market 83.0%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 17.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n286418Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 10.5 +280Model 34.0% · Market 26.3%Edge +7.6% · Full Kelly 10.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -340Model 66.0% · Market 77.3%Edge -11.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n286418Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassUnder 6.5 +152Model 30.7% · Market 40.2%Edge -9.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -168Model 69.3% · Market 63.2%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 17.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n286418Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 11.5 +425Model 26.1% · Market 19.0%Edge +7.1% · Full Kelly 8.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -525Model 73.9% · Market 84.0%Edge -10.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n1d5fb2Starts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Lost3-0Paper stake $128 · P/L -$128 | Paper betBaltimore Orioles +173Model 39.9% · Market 36.6%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 5.1%Policy Kelly 1.3% · $128 | Paper betBaltimore Orioles +173Model 39.9% · Market 36.6%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 5.1%Policy Kelly 1.3% · $128 | +0.0%+173 → +173Logit 0.000 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n1d5fb2Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-0 | PassOver 8.5 +124Model 49.5% · Market 44.6%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 8.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +134Model 52.2% · Market 43.2%Edge +9.0% · Full Kelly 16.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.4%+124 → +134Logit -0.058 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n1d5fb2Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -116Model 49.5% · Market 53.7%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -103Model 50.7% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → -103 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n1d5fb2Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-0 | PassOver 6.5 -175Model 70.5% · Market 63.6%Edge +6.8% · Full Kelly 18.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -175Model 70.5% · Market 64.2%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 18.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.5%-175 → -175Logit 0.022 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n1d5fb2Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-0 | PassUnder 10.5 -322Model 64.4% · Market 76.3%Edge -11.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +266Model 35.6% · Market 27.3%Edge +8.3% · Full Kelly 11.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n1d5fb2Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-0 | PassUnder 9.5 -239Model 57.7% · Market 70.5%Edge -12.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +198Model 42.3% · Market 33.6%Edge +8.7% · Full Kelly 13.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n1d5fb2Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 8.8% · Market 12.7%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 91.2% · Market 89.7%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 15.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n1d5fb2Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-0 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 13.4% · Market 20.1%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -489Model 86.6% · Market 83.0%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 21.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n1d5fb2Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-0 | PassOver 5.5 -263Model 77.6% · Market 72.5%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 18.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +218Model 22.4% · Market 31.4%Edge -9.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n1d5fb2Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-0 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 72.4% · Market 82.1%Edge -9.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 27.6% · Market 21.1%Edge +6.5% · Full Kelly 8.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n18a078Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Francisco Giants +218Model 39.7% · Market 31.4%Edge +8.3% · Full Kelly 12.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants +229Model 31.7% · Market 30.4%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%+218 → +229Logit -0.049 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n1a6317Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMiami Marlins +124Model 45.2% · Market 44.6%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins +129Model 43.8% · Market 43.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+124 → +129Logit -0.039 | 6 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nbffbd4Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -112Model 49.5% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.4% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.0%-112 → +109Logit -0.199 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nbffbd4Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassArizona Diamondbacks -107Model 49.4% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Yankees +101Model 50.3% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → +101 | 6 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n18a078Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 48.7% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.1% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+105 → +101Logit 0.039 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n18a078Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-3 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.3% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 55.2% · Market 58.2%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -137 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n18a078Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 84.4% · Market 86.8%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 15.6% · Market 15.9%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n18a078Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-3 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 89.7% · Market 91.6%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 10.3% · Market 10.6%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n18a078Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-3 | PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 62.5% · Market 63.2%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +152Model 37.5% · Market 40.2%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n18a078Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 23.5% · Market 25.3%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 76.5% · Market 78.3%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n18a078Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 18.6% · Market 20.1%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 81.4% · Market 83.0%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n18a078Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 74.4% · Market 76.3%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 25.6% · Market 27.3%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n18a078Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-3 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 33.5% · Market 34.6%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 66.5% · Market 69.5%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n18a078Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 69.0% · Market 71.5%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 31.0% · Market 32.5%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n1a6317Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 48.4% · Market 51.7%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.0% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.8%-107 → +109Logit -0.154 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n1a6317Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 69.8% · Market 72.5%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 30.2% · Market 31.4%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n1a6317Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 36.7% · Market 37.1%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 63.3% · Market 66.1%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n1a6317Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 77.2% · Market 79.2%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 22.8% · Market 24.2%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n1a6317Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 26.1% · Market 28.4%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 73.9% · Market 75.4%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n1a6317Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 82.1% · Market 84.9%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 17.9% · Market 18.0%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n1a6317Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 50.5% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -126Model 54.4% · Market 56.2%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → -126 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n1a6317Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 10.6% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 89.4% · Market 91.6%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n1a6317Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 65.9% · Market 68.6%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 34.1% · Market 35.6%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n1a6317Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 16.0% · Market 16.9%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 84.0% · Market 85.9%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nbffbd4Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-8 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 76.1% · Market 76.3%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 23.9% · Market 27.3%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nbffbd4Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-8 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 42.5% · Market 46.8%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 57.5% · Market 56.7%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -131 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nbffbd4Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-8 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 68.6% · Market 68.6%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 31.4% · Market 35.6%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nbffbd4Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-8 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 74.6% · Market 80.2%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 25.4% · Market 23.2%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nbffbd4Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-8 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 85.6% · Market 85.9%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 14.4% · Market 16.9%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nbffbd4Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-8 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 90.5% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 9.5% · Market 11.7%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nbffbd4Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-8 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 20.3% · Market 20.1%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 79.7% · Market 83.0%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nbffbd4Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-8 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 66.8% · Market 72.5%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 33.2% · Market 31.4%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nbffbd4Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-8 | PassOver 9.5 +166Model 39.8% · Market 37.7%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 60.2% · Market 65.6%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n936190Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 50.8% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → +105 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n936190Starts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Lost8-0Paper stake $133 · P/L -$133 | Paper betLos Angeles Angels -103Model 53.4% · Market 50.7%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 1.3% · $133 | Paper betLos Angeles Angels -103Model 53.4% · Market 50.7%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 1.3% · $133 | +0.0%-103 → -103Logit 0.000 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n936190Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 66.8% · Market 68.6%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 33.2% · Market 35.6%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n936190Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-0 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 31.1% · Market 31.4%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 68.9% · Market 72.5%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n936190Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 89.8% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 10.2% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n936190Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 15.5% · Market 16.9%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 84.5% · Market 85.9%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n936190Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-0 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 74.6% · Market 76.3%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 25.4% · Market 28.4%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n936190Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-0 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 62.3% · Market 64.6%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +159Model 37.7% · Market 38.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +159 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n936190Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-0 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 18.6% · Market 20.1%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 81.4% · Market 83.0%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n936190Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-0 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 55.4% · Market 56.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 44.6% · Market 46.8%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +119 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n936190Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-0 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 76.4% · Market 80.2%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 23.6% · Market 23.2%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n9594cbStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassColorado Rockies +119Model 47.0% · Market 45.7%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassColorado Rockies +140Model 43.1% · Market 41.7%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%+119 → +140Logit -0.162 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n9594cbStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 +105Model 50.3% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 +109Model 50.1% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+105 → +109Logit -0.037 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n9594cbStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-1 | PassOver 7.5 -360Model 74.6% · Market 78.3%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +296Model 25.4% · Market 25.3%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n9594cbStarts | TotalOpening line 15.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-1 | PassUnder 15.5 -489Model 80.1% · Market 83.0%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 15.5 +398Model 19.9% · Market 20.1%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n9594cbStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-1 | PassOver 8.5 -263Model 68.6% · Market 72.5%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +218Model 31.4% · Market 31.4%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n9594cbStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-1 | PassUnder 5.5 +685Model 12.5% · Market 12.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -869Model 87.5% · Market 89.7%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n9594cbStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-1 | PassUnder 11.5 -137Model 55.6% · Market 57.8%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +124Model 44.4% · Market 45.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n9594cbStarts | TotalOpening line 14.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-1 | PassOver 14.5 +280Model 25.4% · Market 26.3%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 14.5 -340Model 74.6% · Market 77.3%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n9594cbStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-1 | PassOver 6.5 -609Model 82.7% · Market 85.9%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +490Model 17.3% · Market 16.9%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n9594cbStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-1 | PassOver 9.5 -175Model 59.5% · Market 63.6%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 +146Model 40.5% · Market 40.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n9594cbStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-1 | PassUnder 12.5 -175Model 61.7% · Market 64.2%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +158Model 38.3% · Market 39.2%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n9594cbStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-1 | PassOver 13.5 +218Model 30.4% · Market 31.4%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -263Model 69.6% · Market 72.5%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0bbef9Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassToronto Blue Jays +109Model 47.8% · Market 47.9%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassToronto Blue Jays +146Model 43.5% · Market 40.6%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -7.2%+109 → +146Logit -0.292 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0bbef9Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 49.7% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +114Model 50.6% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 7.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → +114 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0bbef9Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassOver 5.5 -239Model 76.9% · Market 70.5%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 21.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +198Model 23.1% · Market 33.6%Edge -10.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0bbef9Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-2 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.3% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +152Model 50.9% · Market 40.2%Edge +10.8% · Full Kelly 18.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -8.6%+105 → +152Logit -0.350 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0bbef9Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassUnder 12.5 -788Model 78.8% · Market 88.7%Edge -9.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +574Model 21.2% · Market 14.8%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 7.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0bbef9Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassOver 4.5 -430Model 86.2% · Market 81.1%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 26.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +331Model 13.8% · Market 23.2%Edge -9.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0bbef9Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassOver 6.5 -155Model 69.6% · Market 61.2%Edge +8.3% · Full Kelly 22.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +140Model 30.4% · Market 42.2%Edge -11.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-155 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0bbef9Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-2 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 26.4% · Market 18.0%Edge +8.4% · Full Kelly 10.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 73.6% · Market 84.9%Edge -11.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0bbef9Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -381Model 65.7% · Market 79.2%Edge -13.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +313Model 34.3% · Market 24.2%Edge +10.1% · Full Kelly 13.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0bbef9Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 91.0% · Market 86.8%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 31.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 9.0% · Market 15.9%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0bbef9Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -239Model 59.1% · Market 70.5%Edge -11.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +198Model 40.9% · Market 33.6%Edge +7.4% · Full Kelly 11.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9b4b4Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 51.0% · Market 48.8%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.7% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+105 → +105Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9b4b4Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals +119Model 45.2% · Market 45.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals -131Model 55.4% · Market 56.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -131 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9b4b4Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassOver 9.5 +109Model 47.7% · Market 47.9%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +134Model 38.9% · Market 43.2%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.6%+109 → +134Logit -0.188 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9b4b4Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 24.7% · Market 28.4%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 75.3% · Market 75.4%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9b4b4Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassOver 12.5 +331Model 19.6% · Market 23.2%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -404Model 80.4% · Market 80.2%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9b4b4Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassOver 7.5 -168Model 56.6% · Market 62.7%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +140Model 43.4% · Market 41.7%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9b4b4Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 32.3% · Market 37.1%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -191Model 67.7% · Market 66.1%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9b4b4Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassOver 5.5 -404Model 75.5% · Market 80.2%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +331Model 24.5% · Market 23.2%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9b4b4Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 9.7% · Market 9.6%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 90.3% · Market 92.5%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+945 → -1236 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9b4b4Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassOver 6.5 -276Model 67.9% · Market 73.4%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +229Model 32.1% · Market 30.4%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9b4b4Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +625Model 14.8% · Market 13.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -788Model 85.2% · Market 88.7%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9b4b4Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassOver 13.5 +456Model 14.0% · Market 18.0%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -564Model 86.0% · Market 84.9%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 7.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nece754Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago White Sox -116Model 52.0% · Market 53.7%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers +101Model 49.3% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → +101 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nece754Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-8 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.8% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 57.4% · Market 57.3%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -131 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66ned27e3Starts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Won4-2Paper stake $148 · P/L $198 | Paper betAtlanta Braves +134Model 46.1% · Market 42.7%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 1.5% · $148 | Paper betAtlanta Braves +134Model 46.1% · Market 42.7%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 1.5% · $148 | +0.0%+134 → +134Logit 0.000 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66ned27e3Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.3% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.5% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%-103 → +109Logit -0.116 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66ned27e3Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.7% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 58.2% · Market 57.3%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -131 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nece754Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.1% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+105 → +109Logit -0.037 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nece754Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-8 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 31.5% · Market 36.6%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 68.5% · Market 67.5%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nece754Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-8 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 66.9% · Market 72.5%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 33.1% · Market 31.4%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nece754Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-8 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 79.8% · Market 84.9%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 20.2% · Market 19.0%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nece754Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-8 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 39.7% · Market 37.1%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 60.3% · Market 66.1%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nece754Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-8 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 76.0% · Market 74.4%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 24.0% · Market 29.4%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nece754Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-8 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 74.7% · Market 80.2%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 25.3% · Market 23.2%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nece754Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-8 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 85.5% · Market 85.9%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 14.5% · Market 16.9%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nece754Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-8 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 90.5% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 9.5% · Market 11.7%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66ned27e3Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 59.4% · Market 65.1%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +166Model 40.6% · Market 37.7%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66ned27e3Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 66.1% · Market 72.5%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 33.9% · Market 31.4%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66ned27e3Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 76.7% · Market 76.3%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 23.3% · Market 27.3%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66ned27e3Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 79.1% · Market 84.0%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 20.9% · Market 19.0%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66ned27e3Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 90.8% · Market 90.6%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 9.2% · Market 11.7%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66ned27e3Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 73.9% · Market 79.2%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 26.1% · Market 24.2%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66ned27e3Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 86.0% · Market 85.9%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 14.0% · Market 16.9%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66ned27e3Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 30.7% · Market 35.6%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 69.3% · Market 68.6%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n16e1f8Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBoston Red Sox +114Model 45.7% · Market 46.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTampa Bay Rays -154Model 59.1% · Market 60.6%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -154 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n3dfcc3Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +166Model 38.0% · Market 37.6%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +198Model 33.7% · Market 33.6%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%+166 → +198Logit -0.176 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n3dfcc3Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 6.5 +105Model 48.9% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -142Model 67.9% · Market 58.7%Edge +9.2% · Full Kelly 22.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -142 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nd857abStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds +124Model 48.2% · Market 44.6%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +140Model 40.7% · Market 41.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.0%+124 → +140Logit -0.121 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n16e1f8Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.7% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +101Model 49.8% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → +101 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n16e1f8Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-5 | PassUnder 10.5 -340Model 71.7% · Market 77.3%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +280Model 28.3% · Market 26.3%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n16e1f8Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-5 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 88.6% · Market 88.7%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 11.4% · Market 14.8%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n16e1f8Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-5 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 21.1% · Market 21.1%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 78.9% · Market 82.1%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n16e1f8Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 17.1% · Market 20.1%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -489Model 82.9% · Market 83.0%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n16e1f8Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-5 | PassOver 12.5 +574Model 16.4% · Market 14.8%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -719Model 83.6% · Market 87.8%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n16e1f8Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-5 | PassUnder 6.5 +146Model 35.9% · Market 40.7%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -175Model 64.1% · Market 63.6%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n16e1f8Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-5 | PassOver 5.5 -263Model 72.3% · Market 72.5%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +218Model 27.7% · Market 31.4%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n16e1f8Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-5 | PassOver 9.5 +140Model 46.9% · Market 41.7%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +198Model 34.7% · Market 33.6%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -8.1%+140 → +198Logit -0.344 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n16e1f8Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-5 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 48.3% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +134Model 44.5% · Market 43.2%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -6.5%+101 → +134Logit -0.264 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n3dfcc3Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Pending0-1 | PassOver 7.5 +105Model 49.5% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +114Model 50.3% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.1%+105 → +114Logit -0.082 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n3dfcc3Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-1 | PassOver 3.5 -609Model 90.3% · Market 85.9%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 30.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +456Model 9.7% · Market 18.0%Edge -8.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n3dfcc3Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-1 | PassOver 8.5 +166Model 48.9% · Market 37.7%Edge +11.3% · Full Kelly 18.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -183Model 51.1% · Market 65.6%Edge -14.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n3dfcc3Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 5.5 +173Model 24.5% · Market 36.6%Edge -12.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -208Model 75.5% · Market 67.5%Edge +8.0% · Full Kelly 24.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n3dfcc3Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-1 | PassOver 10.5 +331Model 32.5% · Market 23.2%Edge +9.3% · Full Kelly 12.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -430Model 67.5% · Market 81.1%Edge -13.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n3dfcc3Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 4.5 +313Model 14.8% · Market 24.2%Edge -9.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -381Model 85.2% · Market 79.2%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 28.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n3dfcc3Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 9.5 -322Model 60.9% · Market 76.3%Edge -15.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +252Model 39.1% · Market 28.4%Edge +10.6% · Full Kelly 14.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n3dfcc3Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 11.5 -660Model 75.1% · Market 86.8%Edge -11.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +490Model 24.9% · Market 16.9%Edge +7.9% · Full Kelly 9.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nd857abStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -107Model 51.2% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -107Model 50.9% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-107 → -107Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nd857abStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-1 | PassUnder 11.5 -200Model 68.0% · Market 67.6%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +180Model 32.0% · Market 36.2%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nd857abStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-1 | PassOver 7.5 -228Model 64.2% · Market 69.5%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +189Model 35.8% · Market 34.6%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nd857abStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-1 | PassUnder 5.5 +425Model 19.2% · Market 19.0%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -525Model 80.8% · Market 84.0%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nd857abStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-1 | PassOver 10.5 +129Model 40.3% · Market 44.2%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -142Model 59.7% · Market 59.2%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nd857abStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-1 | PassUnder 13.5 -430Model 80.3% · Market 81.1%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +331Model 19.7% · Market 23.2%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nd857abStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-1 | PassOver 6.5 -360Model 74.3% · Market 78.3%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +296Model 25.7% · Market 25.3%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nd857abStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-1 | PassOver 8.5 -168Model 57.0% · Market 62.7%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +140Model 43.0% · Market 41.7%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nd857abStarts | TotalOpening line 14.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-1 | PassOver 14.5 +425Model 15.7% · Market 19.0%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 14.5 -525Model 84.3% · Market 84.0%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nd857abStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-1 | PassOver 12.5 +229Model 26.4% · Market 30.4%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -290Model 73.6% · Market 74.4%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nd857abStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-1 | PassOver 4.5 -1236Model 88.8% · Market 92.5%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +945Model 11.2% · Market 9.6%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +945 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nb92de6Starts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Won3-4Paper stake $168 · P/L $145 | Paper betPittsburgh Pirates -116Model 56.8% · Market 53.7%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 1.7% · $168 | Paper betPittsburgh Pirates -121Model 56.8% · Market 54.8%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 1.1% · $114 | +1.0%-116 → -121Logit 0.042 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nb92de6Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -112Model 49.3% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 50.5% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → -103 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nb92de6Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 11.5 +280Model 25.8% · Market 26.3%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 74.2% · Market 77.3%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nb92de6Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 6.5 -239Model 69.0% · Market 70.5%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +198Model 31.0% · Market 33.6%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nb92de6Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 7.5 +129Model 42.0% · Market 44.2%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -142Model 58.0% · Market 59.2%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nb92de6Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 9.3% · Market 10.6%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 90.7% · Market 92.5%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1236 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nb92de6Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 66.4% · Market 70.5%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 33.6% · Market 33.6%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nb92de6Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 5.5 -360Model 76.5% · Market 78.3%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +296Model 23.5% · Market 25.3%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nb92de6Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 85.9% · Market 87.8%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 14.1% · Market 14.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nb92de6Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 20.6% · Market 20.1%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 79.4% · Market 83.0%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nb92de6Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 9.5 +152Model 40.3% · Market 40.2%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 59.7% · Market 63.2%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n6ca9f9Starts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Lost7-2Paper stake $121 · P/L -$121 | Paper betNew York Mets +134Model 45.5% · Market 42.7%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 1.2% · $121 | Paper betNew York Mets +134Model 45.5% · Market 42.7%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 1.2% · $121 | +0.0%+134 → +134Logit 0.000 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n6ca9f9Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 48.4% · Market 50.7%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -142Model 57.5% · Market 59.2%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -142 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n6ca9f9Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.6% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.5% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.0%+105 → -103Logit 0.078 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n6ca9f9Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-2 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 15.1% · Market 16.9%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 84.9% · Market 85.9%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n6ca9f9Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 87.6% · Market 89.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 12.4% · Market 13.8%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n6ca9f9Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 70.5% · Market 73.4%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +218Model 29.5% · Market 31.4%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n6ca9f9Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +152Model 37.8% · Market 39.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -183Model 62.2% · Market 64.7%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n6ca9f9Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 81.6% · Market 84.0%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 18.4% · Market 19.0%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n6ca9f9Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 73.5% · Market 75.4%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 26.5% · Market 28.4%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n6ca9f9Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-2 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 19.5% · Market 21.1%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 80.5% · Market 82.1%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n6ca9f9Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -209Model 67.2% · Market 68.6%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +189Model 32.8% · Market 34.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-209 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n600b26Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -103Model 49.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +119Model 49.9% · Market 45.7%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 7.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.1%-103 → +119Logit -0.204 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n600b26Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels -131Model 54.7% · Market 56.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Angels -126Model 54.4% · Market 55.8%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%-131 → -126Logit -0.039 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n600b26Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +351Model 16.8% · Market 22.2%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -430Model 83.2% · Market 81.1%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 11.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n600b26Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +140Model 35.3% · Market 42.2%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -155Model 64.7% · Market 61.2%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 9.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -155 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n600b26Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -360Model 71.1% · Market 78.3%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +296Model 28.9% · Market 25.3%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n600b26Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 78.4% · Market 84.9%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 21.6% · Market 18.0%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n600b26Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 11.2% · Market 14.8%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -719Model 88.8% · Market 87.8%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n600b26Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 5.5 +189Model 27.2% · Market 34.6%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -228Model 72.8% · Market 69.5%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n600b26Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -263Model 64.6% · Market 72.5%Edge -7.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +218Model 35.4% · Market 31.4%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 5.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n600b26Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 8.5 -161Model 54.8% · Market 62.2%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +146Model 45.2% · Market 41.2%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 7.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n0e0d2aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Francisco Giants +181Model 39.6% · Market 35.6%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants +313Model 30.1% · Market 24.2%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 7.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -11.4%+181 → +313Logit -0.548 | 6 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n0e0d2aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 +109Model 49.5% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +101Model 50.3% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.9%+109 → +101Logit 0.076 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n0e0d2aStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-10 | PassOver 9.5 +208Model 38.5% · Market 32.5%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -251Model 61.5% · Market 71.5%Edge -10.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n0e0d2aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-10 | PassUnder 8.5 -155Model 51.6% · Market 61.2%Edge -9.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +140Model 48.4% · Market 42.2%Edge +6.2% · Full Kelly 11.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-155 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n0e0d2aStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-10 | PassUnder 5.5 +198Model 24.8% · Market 33.6%Edge -8.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -239Model 75.2% · Market 70.5%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 15.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n0e0d2aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-10 | PassUnder 6.5 +146Model 32.5% · Market 41.2%Edge -8.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -161Model 67.5% · Market 62.2%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 15.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n0e0d2aStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-10 | PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 9.9% · Market 14.8%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -719Model 90.1% · Market 87.8%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 18.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n0e0d2aStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-10 | PassUnder 10.5 -360Model 68.0% · Market 78.3%Edge -10.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +296Model 32.0% · Market 25.3%Edge +6.7% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n0e0d2aStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-10 | PassUnder 11.5 -525Model 75.6% · Market 84.0%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +425Model 24.4% · Market 19.0%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n0e0d2aStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-10 | PassUnder 4.5 +373Model 15.0% · Market 21.1%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -458Model 85.0% · Market 82.1%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 16.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n62e535Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 51.0% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 50.8% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-107 → -107Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n62e535Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMiami Marlins +134Model 45.2% · Market 42.7%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Diego Padres -154Model 59.1% · Market 60.6%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -154 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n62e535Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 8.5 +129Model 40.2% · Market 43.7%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -142Model 59.8% · Market 59.2%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n62e535Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 6.5 -175Model 60.2% · Market 63.6%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +158Model 39.8% · Market 39.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n62e535Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 24.5% · Market 28.4%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 75.5% · Market 75.4%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n62e535Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-7 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 19.7% · Market 20.1%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 80.3% · Market 84.0%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n62e535Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-7 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 13.2% · Market 13.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 86.8% · Market 89.7%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n62e535Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-7 | PassUnder 9.5 -239Model 69.3% · Market 70.5%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +198Model 30.7% · Market 33.6%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n62e535Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-7 | PassUnder 11.5 -489Model 82.1% · Market 83.0%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +398Model 17.9% · Market 20.1%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n62e535Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 5.5 -263Model 68.9% · Market 72.5%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +218Model 31.1% · Market 31.4%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n04a566Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -107Model 50.4% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 +101Model 50.1% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%-107 → +101Logit -0.078 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n04a566Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSeattle Mariners -137Model 54.4% · Market 57.8%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSeattle Mariners -148Model 59.0% · Market 59.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.9%-137 → -148Logit 0.077 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n04a566Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassOver 11.5 +119Model 48.6% · Market 45.7%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -142Model 55.3% · Market 58.7%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -142 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n2f397fStarts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Won3-5Paper stake $200 · P/L $280 | Paper betArizona Diamondbacks +140Model 46.4% · Market 41.7%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 8.1%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betArizona Diamondbacks +134Model 46.4% · Market 42.7%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 1.6% · $160 | +1.1%+140 → +134Logit 0.044 | 6 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n2f397fStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -112Model 50.4% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +105Model 50.7% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%-112 → +105Logit -0.162 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n04a566Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassOver 5.5 -869Model 87.6% · Market 89.7%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +685Model 12.4% · Market 12.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n04a566Starts | TotalOpening line 14.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassUnder 14.5 -322Model 74.3% · Market 76.3%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 14.5 +266Model 25.7% · Market 27.3%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n04a566Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassUnder 12.5 -175Model 61.4% · Market 64.2%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +158Model 38.6% · Market 39.2%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n04a566Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassUnder 9.5 +134Model 40.2% · Market 42.7%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 -161Model 59.8% · Market 61.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n04a566Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassOver 8.5 -251Model 68.8% · Market 71.5%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +208Model 31.2% · Market 32.5%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n04a566Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassUnder 13.5 -263Model 69.3% · Market 72.5%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +218Model 30.7% · Market 31.4%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n04a566Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassOver 6.5 -564Model 82.9% · Market 84.9%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +456Model 17.1% · Market 18.0%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n04a566Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassOver 7.5 -360Model 74.8% · Market 78.3%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +296Model 25.2% · Market 25.3%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n04a566Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +1241Model 6.8% · Market 7.5%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -2042Model 93.2% · Market 95.3%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1241 → -2042 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n2f397fStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassUnder 8.5 -161Model 48.2% · Market 62.2%Edge -14.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +146Model 51.8% · Market 41.2%Edge +10.6% · Full Kelly 18.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n2f397fStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +351Model 13.5% · Market 22.2%Edge -8.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -458Model 86.5% · Market 82.1%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 24.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n2f397fStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassOver 3.5 -719Model 91.2% · Market 87.8%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 27.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 8.8% · Market 15.9%Edge -7.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n2f397fStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassUnder 10.5 -340Model 64.9% · Market 77.3%Edge -12.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +280Model 35.1% · Market 26.3%Edge +8.8% · Full Kelly 11.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n2f397fStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 72.9% · Market 84.9%Edge -12.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 27.1% · Market 18.0%Edge +9.1% · Full Kelly 11.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n2f397fStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassOver 5.5 -239Model 77.4% · Market 70.5%Edge +6.9% · Full Kelly 23.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +198Model 22.6% · Market 33.6%Edge -10.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n2f397fStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassOver 6.5 -155Model 70.2% · Market 61.2%Edge +9.0% · Full Kelly 24.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +140Model 29.8% · Market 42.2%Edge -12.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-155 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n2f397fStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassUnder 9.5 -276Model 58.2% · Market 73.4%Edge -15.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +218Model 41.8% · Market 31.4%Edge +10.4% · Full Kelly 15.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n7cabdfStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 51.2% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +101Model 51.2% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.1%-112 → +101Logit -0.123 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n7cabdfStarts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Lost8-5Paper stake $106 · P/L -$106 | Paper betSt. Louis Cardinals -107Model 53.7% · Market 51.7%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 1.1% · $106 | Paper betSt. Louis Cardinals -107Model 53.7% · Market 51.7%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 1.1% · $106 | +0.0%-107 → -107Logit 0.000 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n7cabdfStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-5 | PassUnder 10.5 -208Model 71.6% · Market 67.5%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 12.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 28.4% · Market 36.6%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n7cabdfStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-5 | PassOver 4.5 -788Model 82.9% · Market 88.7%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 17.1% · Market 14.8%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n7cabdfStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-5 | PassOver 13.5 +456Model 11.5% · Market 18.0%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -564Model 88.5% · Market 84.9%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 23.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n7cabdfStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 78.8% · Market 75.4%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 14.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 21.2% · Market 28.4%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n7cabdfStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-5 | PassOver 12.5 +331Model 16.5% · Market 23.2%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -404Model 83.5% · Market 80.2%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 16.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n7cabdfStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-5 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 88.6% · Market 93.5%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 11.4% · Market 8.5%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1428 → +1074 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n7cabdfStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-5 | PassOver 9.5 +134Model 34.8% · Market 43.2%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -148Model 65.2% · Market 60.2%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 13.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n7cabdfStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-5 | PassUnder 7.5 +146Model 47.5% · Market 41.2%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 11.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -161Model 52.5% · Market 62.2%Edge -9.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n7cabdfStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-5 | PassUnder 6.5 +229Model 35.8% · Market 30.4%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 7.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -276Model 64.2% · Market 73.4%Edge -9.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n7cabdfStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-5 | PassOver 5.5 -404Model 72.4% · Market 80.2%Edge -7.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +313Model 27.6% · Market 24.2%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n43dbf4Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers +105Model 47.3% · Market 48.8%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers +114Model 48.1% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.1%+105 → +114Logit -0.082 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n43dbf4Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 49.6% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 49.4% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.8%-107 → +109Logit -0.154 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n43dbf4Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.4% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -131Model 46.9% · Market 56.7%Edge -9.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -131 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nb90d52Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -121Model 50.5% · Market 54.8%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -6.0%-121 → +105Logit -0.239 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nb90d52Starts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Won6-3Paper stake $148 · P/L $169 | Paper betAtlanta Braves +114Model 49.9% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 1.5% · $148 | Paper betAtlanta Braves +114Model 49.9% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 1.5% · $148 | +0.0%+114 → +114Logit 0.000 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nb90d52Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 91.5% · Market 93.5%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 8.5% · Market 9.6%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1428 → +945 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nb90d52Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassOver 12.5 +331Model 22.5% · Market 23.2%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -404Model 77.5% · Market 80.2%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nb90d52Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 6.5 -263Model 70.9% · Market 72.5%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +218Model 29.1% · Market 31.4%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nb90d52Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassOver 9.5 +134Model 42.6% · Market 43.2%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -148Model 57.4% · Market 60.2%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nb90d52Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 78.0% · Market 79.2%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +313Model 22.0% · Market 24.2%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nb90d52Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassUnder 11.5 -322Model 72.1% · Market 76.3%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +266Model 27.9% · Market 27.3%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nb90d52Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 7.5 -161Model 60.1% · Market 62.2%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +146Model 39.9% · Market 41.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nb90d52Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 86.9% · Market 87.8%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 13.1% · Market 14.8%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nb90d52Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassOver 10.5 +181Model 35.9% · Market 35.6%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -218Model 64.1% · Market 68.6%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0f4774Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassToronto Blue Jays +101Model 48.7% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassToronto Blue Jays -103Model 49.0% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+101 → -103Logit 0.040 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0f4774Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.3% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -107Model 51.1% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -107 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0f4774Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.7% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -137Model 45.1% · Market 58.7%Edge -13.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -137 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0f4774Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 79.5% · Market 73.4%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 23.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 20.5% · Market 30.4%Edge -9.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0f4774Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 70.1% · Market 81.1%Edge -11.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 29.9% · Market 22.2%Edge +7.7% · Full Kelly 9.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0f4774Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 92.2% · Market 89.7%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 24.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 7.8% · Market 13.8%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0f4774Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassOver 6.5 -183Model 72.7% · Market 65.1%Edge +7.6% · Full Kelly 22.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +165Model 27.3% · Market 38.2%Edge -10.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0f4774Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 61.9% · Market 73.4%Edge -11.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 38.1% · Market 30.4%Edge +7.7% · Full Kelly 11.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0f4774Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -218Model 55.1% · Market 68.6%Edge -13.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +181Model 44.9% · Market 35.6%Edge +9.3% · Full Kelly 14.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0f4774Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 88.0% · Market 84.0%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 24.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 12.0% · Market 20.1%Edge -8.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n412d32Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 50.1% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.8% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+101 → +105Logit -0.039 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n412d32Starts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Won5-6Paper stake $175 · P/L $151 | Paper betPittsburgh Pirates -116Model 57.0% · Market 53.7%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 7.0%Policy Kelly 1.8% · $175 | Paper betPittsburgh Pirates -116Model 57.0% · Market 53.7%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 7.0%Policy Kelly 1.8% · $175 | +0.0%-116 → -116Logit 0.000 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n412d32Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 48.8% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -126Model 52.3% · Market 56.8%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -126 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nff7a52Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds +109Model 47.4% · Market 47.9%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago Cubs -148Model 58.2% · Market 59.7%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+109 → -148 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nff7a52Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -121Model 51.3% · Market 54.8%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +105Model 49.3% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-121 → +105 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n412d32Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 23.7% · Market 24.2%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 76.3% · Market 79.2%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n412d32Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 68.8% · Market 71.5%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 31.2% · Market 32.5%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n412d32Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 33.1% · Market 37.6%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 66.9% · Market 66.6%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n412d32Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 18.7% · Market 19.0%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 81.3% · Market 84.0%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n412d32Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 9.5 +180Model 37.8% · Market 36.2%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -200Model 62.2% · Market 67.1%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+180 → -200 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n412d32Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 10.2% · Market 12.7%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 89.8% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n412d32Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 74.7% · Market 75.4%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 25.3% · Market 28.4%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n412d32Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 84.6% · Market 84.9%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 15.4% · Market 18.0%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nff7a52Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +756Model 10.5% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -1087Model 89.5% · Market 91.6%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nff7a52Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassUnder 13.5 -430Model 78.8% · Market 81.1%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +351Model 21.2% · Market 22.2%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nff7a52Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-2 | PassOver 7.5 -208Model 65.8% · Market 67.5%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +173Model 34.2% · Market 36.6%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nff7a52Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +1241Model 6.8% · Market 7.5%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1684Model 93.2% · Market 94.4%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1241 → -1684 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nff7a52Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -161Model 57.8% · Market 62.2%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +146Model 42.2% · Market 41.2%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nff7a52Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassOver 5.5 -525Model 81.8% · Market 84.0%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +425Model 18.2% · Market 19.0%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nff7a52Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +280Model 24.4% · Market 26.3%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -340Model 75.6% · Market 77.3%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nff7a52Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassUnder 8.5 +129Model 41.3% · Market 44.2%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -142Model 58.7% · Market 59.2%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nff7a52Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-2 | PassOver 11.5 +198Model 33.8% · Market 33.6%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -239Model 66.2% · Market 70.5%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nff7a52Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-2 | PassOver 12.5 +252Model 28.0% · Market 28.4%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -306Model 72.0% · Market 75.4%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nedab32Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +146Model 41.4% · Market 40.6%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +152Model 40.6% · Market 39.7%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+146 → +152Logit -0.040 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nedab32Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.8% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.5% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+101 → +101Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nedab32Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-12 | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.3% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +124Model 50.5% · Market 45.2%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 10.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -6.5%-107 → +124Logit -0.262 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nedab32Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-12 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 74.0% · Market 82.1%Edge -8.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 26.0% · Market 21.1%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nedab32Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-12 | PassOver 9.5 +189Model 40.5% · Market 34.7%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 9.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -209Model 59.5% · Market 68.6%Edge -9.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -209 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nedab32Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-12 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 86.0% · Market 84.0%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 12.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 14.0% · Market 19.0%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nedab32Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-12 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 9.2% · Market 12.7%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 90.8% · Market 89.7%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 11.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nedab32Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-12 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 66.1% · Market 74.4%Edge -8.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 33.9% · Market 29.4%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nedab32Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-12 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 76.6% · Market 73.4%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 12.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 23.4% · Market 30.4%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nedab32Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-12 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 20.8% · Market 16.9%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 79.2% · Market 85.9%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nedab32Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-12 | PassUnder 6.5 +159Model 30.8% · Market 38.6%Edge -7.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -191Model 69.2% · Market 65.6%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 10.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+159 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n412d36Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.1% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +114Model 49.6% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.1%+105 → +114Logit -0.082 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n412d36Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassPhiladelphia Phillies -103Model 51.7% · Market 50.7%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassPhiladelphia Phillies +105Model 50.4% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%-103 → +105Logit -0.078 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n412d36Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-10 | PassUnder 9.5 -199Model 60.3% · Market 66.6%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 60.4% · Market 66.1%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%-199 → -191Logit -0.023 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n412d36Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-10 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 85.5% · Market 85.9%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 14.5% · Market 16.9%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n412d36Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-10 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 33.1% · Market 30.4%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 66.9% · Market 73.4%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n412d36Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-10 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 76.0% · Market 75.4%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 24.0% · Market 29.4%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n412d36Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-10 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 20.2% · Market 18.0%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 79.8% · Market 84.9%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n412d36Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-10 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 9.5% · Market 11.7%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 90.5% · Market 91.6%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n412d36Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-10 | PassUnder 8.5 -126Model 51.1% · Market 55.8%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -126Model 50.3% · Market 56.2%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.5%-126 → -126Logit 0.020 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n412d36Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-10 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 74.7% · Market 80.2%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 25.3% · Market 23.2%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n412d36Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-10 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 31.5% · Market 36.6%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 68.5% · Market 67.5%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66ndf5ccaStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -121Model 50.7% · Market 54.8%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 50.8% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.1%-121 → -107Logit -0.123 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66ndf5ccaStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassTampa Bay Rays -131Model 54.0% · Market 56.7%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTampa Bay Rays -154Model 59.1% · Market 60.6%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.9%-131 → -154Logit 0.162 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66ndf5ccaStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 11.5 +398Model 17.8% · Market 20.1%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -489Model 82.2% · Market 83.0%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66ndf5ccaStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 5.5 -263Model 68.8% · Market 72.5%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +218Model 31.2% · Market 31.4%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66ndf5ccaStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 4.5 -489Model 80.3% · Market 83.0%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 19.7% · Market 20.1%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66ndf5ccaStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 24.4% · Market 28.4%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 75.6% · Market 75.4%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66ndf5ccaStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -239Model 69.4% · Market 70.5%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +198Model 30.6% · Market 33.6%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66ndf5ccaStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 6.5 -168Model 60.1% · Market 63.2%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +152Model 39.9% · Market 40.2%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66ndf5ccaStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 8.5 +140Model 40.1% · Market 42.7%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -154Model 59.9% · Market 60.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -154 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66ndf5ccaStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 86.7% · Market 88.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 13.3% · Market 13.8%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n3ed24cStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBaltimore Orioles +134Model 48.2% · Market 42.7%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 9.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBaltimore Orioles -112Model 52.1% · Market 52.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +10.1%+134 → -112Logit 0.406 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n3ed24cStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.0% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -107Model 51.0% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -107 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n3ed24cStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-0 | PassUnder 6.5 +152Model 27.6% · Market 39.7%Edge -12.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -183Model 72.4% · Market 64.7%Edge +7.8% · Full Kelly 21.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n3ed24cStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-0 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 70.4% · Market 82.1%Edge -11.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 29.6% · Market 21.1%Edge +8.4% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n3ed24cStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-0 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 87.8% · Market 84.0%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 23.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 12.2% · Market 19.0%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n3ed24cStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 92.1% · Market 89.7%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 23.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 7.9% · Market 12.7%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n3ed24cStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-0 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 79.3% · Market 73.4%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 22.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 20.7% · Market 30.4%Edge -9.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n3ed24cStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-0 | PassOver 9.5 +165Model 48.7% · Market 37.7%Edge +11.0% · Full Kelly 17.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -209Model 55.5% · Market 68.6%Edge -13.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+165 → -209 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n3ed24cStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-0 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 62.3% · Market 75.4%Edge -13.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 37.7% · Market 28.4%Edge +9.3% · Full Kelly 13.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n3ed24cStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 50.0% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -142Model 45.5% · Market 59.2%Edge -13.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+109 → -142 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n3ed24cStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-0 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 75.9% · Market 85.9%Edge -10.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 24.1% · Market 16.9%Edge +7.1% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n43dbf4Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-3 | PassUnder 9.5 -200Model 56.9% · Market 66.7%Edge -9.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +180Model 43.1% · Market 35.7%Edge +7.4% · Full Kelly 11.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nfc4db8Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Francisco Giants +280Model 40.3% · Market 26.3%Edge +14.0% · Full Kelly 19.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants +252Model 30.9% · Market 28.4%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.1%+280 → +252Logit 0.105 | 8 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nfc4db8Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 48.6% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.1% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+109 → +109Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nfc4db8Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-8 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 61.2% · Market 65.1%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +166Model 37.6% · Market 37.7%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nfc4db8Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-8 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.3% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -126Model 56.4% · Market 56.2%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -126 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nfc4db8Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-8 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 80.5% · Market 84.0%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 19.5% · Market 19.0%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nfc4db8Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-8 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 32.2% · Market 31.4%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 67.8% · Market 72.5%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nfc4db8Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-8 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 85.1% · Market 84.9%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 14.9% · Market 18.0%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nfc4db8Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-8 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 9.8% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 90.2% · Market 91.6%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nfc4db8Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-8 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 24.6% · Market 24.2%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 75.4% · Market 79.2%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nfc4db8Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-8 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 24.6% · Market 28.4%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 75.4% · Market 75.4%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nfc4db8Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-8 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 32.3% · Market 35.6%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 67.7% · Market 68.6%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n21f288Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMiami Marlins +173Model 45.9% · Market 36.6%Edge +9.3% · Full Kelly 14.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins +166Model 38.1% · Market 37.6%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+173 → +166Logit 0.041 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n21f288Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.8% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-103 → -103Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n21f288Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-8 | PassUnder 8.5 -148Model 58.1% · Market 60.2%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +134Model 41.9% · Market 42.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n21f288Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-8 | PassOver 4.5 -489Model 81.4% · Market 83.0%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 18.6% · Market 20.1%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n21f288Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-8 | PassOver 9.5 +198Model 32.3% · Market 33.6%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -239Model 67.7% · Market 70.5%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n21f288Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-8 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 19.1% · Market 21.1%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 80.9% · Market 82.1%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n21f288Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-8 | PassUnder 5.5 +208Model 29.7% · Market 32.5%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -251Model 70.3% · Market 71.5%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n21f288Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-8 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 87.5% · Market 88.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 12.5% · Market 14.8%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n21f288Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-8 | PassUnder 6.5 +152Model 38.3% · Market 40.2%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -168Model 61.7% · Market 63.2%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n21f288Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-8 | PassOver 10.5 +280Model 26.0% · Market 26.3%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -340Model 74.0% · Market 77.3%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nc008f7Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.4% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.1% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+105 → +101Logit 0.039 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nc008f7Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassArizona Diamondbacks +109Model 49.8% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Yankees -103Model 50.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+109 → -103 | 7 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nc008f7Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-2 | PassOver 8.5 -112Model 49.6% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -137Model 46.7% · Market 58.7%Edge -12.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → -137 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nc008f7Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-2 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 91.7% · Market 89.7%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 19.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 8.3% · Market 13.8%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nc008f7Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 12.7% · Market 19.0%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 87.3% · Market 84.0%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 20.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nc008f7Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-2 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 36.6% · Market 29.4%Edge +7.2% · Full Kelly 10.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 63.4% · Market 74.4%Edge -10.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nc008f7Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 28.5% · Market 37.6%Edge -9.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 71.5% · Market 66.6%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 14.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nc008f7Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 28.5% · Market 21.1%Edge +7.3% · Full Kelly 9.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 71.5% · Market 82.1%Edge -10.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nc008f7Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 21.5% · Market 30.4%Edge -8.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 78.5% · Market 73.4%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 19.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nc008f7Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-2 | PassOver 9.5 +188Model 43.3% · Market 35.2%Edge +8.2% · Full Kelly 13.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -209Model 56.7% · Market 68.1%Edge -11.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+188 → -209 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nc008f7Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassOver 12.5 +529Model 23.1% · Market 15.9%Edge +7.2% · Full Kelly 8.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -660Model 76.9% · Market 86.8%Edge -9.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nf1dfe7Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Pending3-0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.3% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.4% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%+101 → +109Logit -0.076 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nf1dfe7Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels -107Model 52.5% · Market 51.7%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Angels -107Model 49.7% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-107 → -107Logit 0.000 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nf1dfe7Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-0 | PassUnder 7.5 +114Model 49.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 42.5% · Market 46.8%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+114 → +119Logit 0.001 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nf1dfe7Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-0 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 60.2% · Market 65.1%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +159Model 39.8% · Market 38.7%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +159 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nf1dfe7Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 14.4% · Market 16.9%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 85.6% · Market 85.9%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nf1dfe7Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 25.4% · Market 23.2%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 74.6% · Market 80.2%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nf1dfe7Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-0 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 76.1% · Market 75.4%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 23.9% · Market 28.4%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nf1dfe7Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 68.6% · Market 68.6%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 31.4% · Market 35.6%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nf1dfe7Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-0 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 79.7% · Market 83.0%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 20.3% · Market 20.1%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nf1dfe7Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 9.5% · Market 12.7%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 90.5% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nf1dfe7Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-0 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 33.1% · Market 30.4%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 66.9% · Market 73.4%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n6534e5Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSt. Louis Cardinals -103Model 55.0% · Market 50.7%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 8.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals -107Model 55.6% · Market 51.7%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 8.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%-103 → -107Logit 0.038 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n6534e5Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -112Model 50.5% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.2% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.1%-112 → -103Logit -0.084 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n6534e5Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-1 | PassUnder 9.5 -219Model 65.3% · Market 69.1%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -218Model 65.3% · Market 68.6%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%-219 → -218Logit -0.022 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n6534e5Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-1 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 82.9% · Market 84.0%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 17.1% · Market 20.1%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n6534e5Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-1 | PassOver 8.5 +129Model 44.5% · Market 44.7%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -142Model 55.5% · Market 59.2%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n6534e5Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-1 | PassOver 6.5 -191Model 64.1% · Market 65.6%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +159Model 35.9% · Market 38.6%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +159 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n6534e5Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-1 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 78.9% · Market 81.1%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 21.1% · Market 22.2%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n6534e5Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-1 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 28.3% · Market 29.4%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 71.7% · Market 74.4%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n6534e5Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-1 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 11.4% · Market 13.8%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 88.6% · Market 89.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n6534e5Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-1 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 27.7% · Market 30.4%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 72.3% · Market 73.4%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n12b7dbStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassHouston Astros -107Model 50.1% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassHouston Astros -103Model 49.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%-107 → -103Logit -0.038 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n12b7dbStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -112Model 49.5% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.9% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%-112 → +105Logit -0.162 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n12b7dbStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 28.2% · Market 35.6%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 71.8% · Market 68.6%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 10.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n12b7dbStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 76.6% · Market 84.0%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 23.4% · Market 19.0%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n12b7dbStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 63.0% · Market 72.5%Edge -9.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 37.0% · Market 31.4%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 8.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n12b7dbStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 7.5 +114Model 38.8% · Market 47.3%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -126Model 61.2% · Market 56.2%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 12.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -126 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n12b7dbStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 12.6% · Market 18.0%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 87.4% · Market 84.9%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 16.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n12b7dbStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 78.7% · Market 76.3%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 10.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 21.3% · Market 27.3%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n12b7dbStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 91.8% · Market 90.6%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 12.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 8.2% · Market 11.7%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n12b7dbStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 28.8% · Market 24.2%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 71.2% · Market 79.2%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n12b7dbStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassOver 9.5 +165Model 43.7% · Market 38.2%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 9.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 56.3% · Market 65.1%Edge -8.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+165 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n676912Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassColorado Rockies +114Model 46.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassColorado Rockies +159Model 39.9% · Market 38.6%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -8.1%+114 → +159Logit -0.333 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n676912Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 10.5 -112Model 49.7% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 -103Model 50.0% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.1%-112 → -103Logit -0.084 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n676912Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassOver 9.5 -148Model 60.3% · Market 60.2%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 +134Model 39.7% · Market 43.2%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n676912Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassUnder 5.5 +625Model 12.1% · Market 13.8%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -788Model 87.9% · Market 88.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n676912Starts | TotalOpening line 14.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassUnder 14.5 -381Model 73.8% · Market 79.2%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 14.5 +313Model 26.2% · Market 24.2%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n676912Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassUnder 11.5 -148Model 54.8% · Market 60.2%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +134Model 45.2% · Market 43.2%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n676912Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassOver 6.5 -525Model 83.2% · Market 84.0%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +425Model 16.8% · Market 19.0%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n676912Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassUnder 7.5 +266Model 24.8% · Market 27.3%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -322Model 75.2% · Market 76.3%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n676912Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassUnder 12.5 -208Model 60.9% · Market 67.5%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +173Model 39.1% · Market 36.6%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n676912Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassUnder 13.5 -290Model 68.8% · Market 74.4%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +240Model 31.2% · Market 29.4%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n676912Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassOver 8.5 -228Model 69.3% · Market 69.5%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +189Model 30.7% · Market 34.6%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n676912Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassUnder 4.5 +1241Model 6.6% · Market 7.5%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -1684Model 93.4% · Market 94.4%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1241 → -1684 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n9e70b5Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.5% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +101Model 51.2% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → +101 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n9e70b5Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassTexas Rangers +109Model 51.4% · Market 47.9%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 6.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTexas Rangers +114Model 45.0% · Market 46.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%+109 → +114Logit -0.045 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n9e70b5Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-7 | PassUnder 9.5 -229Model 53.9% · Market 70.6%Edge -16.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +206Model 46.1% · Market 33.1%Edge +12.9% · Full Kelly 19.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-229 → +206 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n9e70b5Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-7 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 7.5% · Market 13.8%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 92.5% · Market 88.7%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 33.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n9e70b5Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-7 | PassOver 11.5 +398Model 31.0% · Market 20.1%Edge +10.9% · Full Kelly 13.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -489Model 69.0% · Market 83.0%Edge -14.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n9e70b5Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-7 | PassUnder 6.5 +140Model 26.4% · Market 41.7%Edge -15.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -168Model 73.6% · Market 62.7%Edge +10.9% · Full Kelly 29.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n9e70b5Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-7 | PassOver 8.5 +140Model 56.0% · Market 42.7%Edge +13.3% · Full Kelly 24.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -154Model 44.0% · Market 60.7%Edge -16.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -154 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n9e70b5Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-7 | PassUnder 10.5 -322Model 60.7% · Market 76.3%Edge -15.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +266Model 39.3% · Market 27.3%Edge +11.9% · Full Kelly 16.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n9e70b5Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-7 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 11.6% · Market 20.1%Edge -8.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -489Model 88.4% · Market 83.0%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 31.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n9e70b5Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-7 | PassOver 5.5 -251Model 80.2% · Market 71.5%Edge +8.7% · Full Kelly 30.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +208Model 19.8% · Market 32.5%Edge -12.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n96090aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers +101Model 50.2% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers +109Model 47.8% · Market 47.9%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%+101 → +109Logit -0.076 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n96090aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -121Model 50.8% · Market 54.8%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.6% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-121 → +105 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n96090aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-8 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 41.4% · Market 45.7%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 58.6% · Market 58.2%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -137 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n96090aStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost11-8 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 76.9% · Market 76.3%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 23.1% · Market 27.3%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n96090aStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-8 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 13.8% · Market 16.9%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 86.2% · Market 86.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n96090aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost11-8 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 69.6% · Market 69.5%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 30.4% · Market 34.6%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n96090aStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-8 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 65.7% · Market 71.5%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 34.3% · Market 32.5%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n96090aStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-8 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 78.8% · Market 83.0%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 21.2% · Market 20.1%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n96090aStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost11-8 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 41.0% · Market 39.2%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 59.0% · Market 64.2%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n96090aStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-8 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 9.0% · Market 11.7%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 91.0% · Market 91.6%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n96090aStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-8 | PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 73.6% · Market 78.3%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 26.4% · Market 25.3%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n0a0aeaStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassPhiladelphia Phillies -116Model 51.7% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassPhiladelphia Phillies +105Model 53.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 8.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.9%-116 → +105Logit -0.197 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n0a0aeaStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -116Model 51.3% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 50.5% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.0%-116 → -103Logit -0.119 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n0a0aeaStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 79.4% · Market 82.1%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 20.6% · Market 21.1%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n0a0aeaStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -228Model 66.5% · Market 69.5%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +181Model 33.5% · Market 35.6%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n0a0aeaStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +208Model 31.2% · Market 32.5%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -251Model 68.8% · Market 71.5%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n0a0aeaStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassUnder 7.5 +134Model 42.2% · Market 43.2%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -148Model 57.8% · Market 60.2%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n0a0aeaStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassUnder 5.5 +296Model 23.8% · Market 25.3%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 76.2% · Market 79.2%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n0a0aeaStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 74.3% · Market 77.3%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +280Model 25.7% · Market 26.3%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n0a0aeaStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassOver 9.5 +140Model 40.2% · Market 42.2%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -155Model 59.8% · Market 61.2%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -155 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n0a0aeaStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 90.6% · Market 92.5%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 9.4% · Market 10.6%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n0a0aeaStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 85.7% · Market 87.8%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 14.3% · Market 15.9%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nacf972Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCleveland Guardians -161Model 60.2% · Market 61.7%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +189Model 35.4% · Market 34.6%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +189 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nacf972Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 48.6% · Market 51.7%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.8%-107 → +109Logit -0.154 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nacf972Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 56.6% · Market 57.8%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 43.4% · Market 46.2%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +119 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nacf972Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 39.0% · Market 39.2%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 61.0% · Market 64.7%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nacf972Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 32.2% · Market 34.6%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 67.8% · Market 69.5%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nacf972Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 19.7% · Market 20.1%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 80.3% · Market 83.0%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nacf972Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 75.2% · Market 79.2%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 24.8% · Market 24.2%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nacf972Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 32.4% · Market 32.5%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 67.6% · Market 71.5%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nacf972Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 24.5% · Market 27.3%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 75.5% · Market 76.3%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nacf972Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 9.8% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 90.2% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nacf972Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 85.2% · Market 85.9%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 14.8% · Market 16.9%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nb39b45Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBoston Red Sox +101Model 46.8% · Market 49.8%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTampa Bay Rays -137Model 57.9% · Market 57.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → -137 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nb39b45Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Pending4-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +119Model 48.9% · Market 45.7%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +124Model 48.9% · Market 44.6%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 7.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+119 → +124Logit -0.041 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nb39b45Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Pending4-2 | PassOver 7.5 -112Model 49.2% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +124Model 49.5% · Market 44.6%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 8.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -8.2%-112 → +124Logit -0.329 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nb39b45Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassOver 11.5 +490Model 19.4% · Market 16.9%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -609Model 80.6% · Market 85.9%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nb39b45Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassOver 10.5 +331Model 26.4% · Market 23.2%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -404Model 73.6% · Market 80.2%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nb39b45Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 8.5 -183Model 57.6% · Market 65.1%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +165Model 42.4% · Market 38.2%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 7.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nb39b45Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 12.5 -869Model 85.0% · Market 89.7%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +685Model 15.0% · Market 12.7%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nb39b45Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassUnder 5.5 +166Model 29.4% · Market 37.6%Edge -8.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -208Model 70.6% · Market 67.5%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 9.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nb39b45Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -306Model 67.3% · Market 75.4%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +252Model 32.7% · Market 28.4%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nb39b45Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 87.7% · Market 86.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +490Model 12.3% · Market 16.9%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nb39b45Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +313Model 18.4% · Market 24.2%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -404Model 81.6% · Market 80.2%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 7.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n9a9f55Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBaltimore Orioles +140Model 48.7% · Market 41.7%Edge +7.0% · Full Kelly 12.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBaltimore Orioles +129Model 46.1% · Market 43.7%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.0%+140 → +129Logit 0.082 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n9a9f55Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 50.0% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 50.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.8%-107 → +109Logit -0.154 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n9a9f55Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-5 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 92.6% · Market 91.6%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 12.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 7.4% · Market 10.6%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n9a9f55Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 19.6% · Market 27.3%Edge -7.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 80.4% · Market 76.3%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 17.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n9a9f55Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-5 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 74.2% · Market 82.1%Edge -7.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 25.8% · Market 21.1%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n9a9f55Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-5 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 46.5% · Market 39.2%Edge +7.3% · Full Kelly 12.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 53.5% · Market 64.2%Edge -10.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n9a9f55Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-5 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 73.9% · Market 69.5%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 14.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 26.1% · Market 34.6%Edge -8.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n9a9f55Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 60.3% · Market 70.5%Edge -10.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 39.7% · Market 33.6%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 9.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n9a9f55Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 68.6% · Market 78.3%Edge -9.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 31.4% · Market 25.3%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 8.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n9a9f55Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 36.3% · Market 45.7%Edge -9.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 63.7% · Market 57.8%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 13.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -137 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n9a9f55Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 11.4% · Market 14.8%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 88.6% · Market 87.8%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n1e9e6eStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +109Model 50.6% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 50.0% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.9%+109 → -103Logit 0.116 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n1e9e6eStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds +109Model 48.2% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +124Model 46.3% · Market 44.6%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.2%+109 → +124Logit -0.129 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n1e9e6eStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -208Model 62.2% · Market 67.5%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 37.8% · Market 36.6%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n1e9e6eStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -155Model 55.4% · Market 61.2%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +140Model 44.6% · Market 42.7%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 5.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-155 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n1e9e6eStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassOver 13.5 +490Model 17.9% · Market 16.9%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -609Model 82.1% · Market 85.9%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n1e9e6eStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 5.5 +296Model 20.7% · Market 25.3%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -360Model 79.3% · Market 78.3%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n1e9e6eStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +208Model 27.5% · Market 32.5%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -263Model 72.5% · Market 72.5%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n1e9e6eStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 12.2% · Market 14.8%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 87.8% · Market 87.8%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n1e9e6eStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassOver 7.5 -155Model 62.0% · Market 61.2%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +140Model 38.0% · Market 42.2%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-155 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n1e9e6eStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassUnder 12.5 -430Model 75.8% · Market 81.1%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +351Model 24.2% · Market 22.2%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n1e9e6eStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -322Model 70.3% · Market 76.3%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +266Model 29.7% · Market 27.3%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n1e9e6eStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 7.9% · Market 9.6%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 92.1% · Market 92.5%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+945 → -1236 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n979eb7Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.1% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.2% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+101 → +101Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n979eb7Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassKansas City Royals +146Model 43.9% · Market 40.6%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassKansas City Royals +159Model 40.9% · Market 38.6%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%+146 → +159Logit -0.085 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n979eb7Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-8 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.9% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 44.4% · Market 45.2%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.6%+101 → +124Logit -0.185 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n979eb7Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-8 | PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 76.3% · Market 78.3%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 23.7% · Market 25.3%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n979eb7Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-8 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 68.7% · Market 70.5%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 31.3% · Market 33.6%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n979eb7Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-8 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 18.8% · Market 20.1%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 81.2% · Market 83.0%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n979eb7Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-8 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 89.9% · Market 91.6%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 10.1% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n979eb7Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-8 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 37.9% · Market 39.2%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 62.1% · Market 64.2%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n979eb7Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-8 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 15.4% · Market 16.9%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 84.6% · Market 86.8%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n979eb7Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-8 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 25.3% · Market 27.3%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 74.7% · Market 77.3%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n979eb7Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-8 | PassOver 6.5 -239Model 67.0% · Market 70.5%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 33.0% · Market 34.6%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n5a4402Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.1% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +109Model 50.2% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → +109 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n5a4402Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels -112Model 53.8% · Market 52.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Angels -112Model 51.1% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-112 → -112Logit 0.000 | 9 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n5a4402Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassUnder 9.5 -252Model 61.9% · Market 72.0%Edge -10.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +226Model 38.1% · Market 31.1%Edge +7.1% · Full Kelly 10.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-252 → +226 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n5a4402Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +351Model 15.3% · Market 22.2%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -430Model 84.7% · Market 81.1%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 19.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n5a4402Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 76.1% · Market 84.9%Edge -8.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 23.9% · Market 18.0%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 7.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n5a4402Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 48.9% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +146Model 48.1% · Market 40.7%Edge +7.4% · Full Kelly 12.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -11.0%-107 → +146Logit -0.446 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n5a4402Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassOver 5.5 -228Model 74.9% · Market 69.5%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 17.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +189Model 25.1% · Market 34.6%Edge -9.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n5a4402Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 89.9% · Market 86.8%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 23.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 10.1% · Market 15.9%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n5a4402Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassUnder 6.5 +129Model 32.9% · Market 43.7%Edge -10.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -154Model 67.1% · Market 60.6%Edge +6.5% · Full Kelly 16.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -154 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n5a4402Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassUnder 12.5 -788Model 81.0% · Market 88.7%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +574Model 19.0% · Market 14.8%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n5a4402Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassUnder 10.5 -340Model 68.5% · Market 77.3%Edge -8.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +280Model 31.5% · Market 26.3%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 7.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0e51ddStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassTexas Rangers -103Model 49.8% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBoston Red Sox -121Model 54.8% · Market 54.8%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -121 | 9 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0e51ddStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 49.6% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.7% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+109 → +105Logit 0.037 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0e51ddStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 85.1% · Market 84.9%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 14.9% · Market 18.0%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0e51ddStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 90.2% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 9.8% · Market 12.7%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0e51ddStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassUnder 9.5 -200Model 61.0% · Market 67.1%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +180Model 39.0% · Market 36.2%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0e51ddStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 24.6% · Market 22.2%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 75.4% · Market 81.1%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0e51ddStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 67.8% · Market 66.6%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 32.2% · Market 37.6%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0e51ddStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.9% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -131Model 51.1% · Market 57.3%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -131 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0e51ddStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 32.3% · Market 29.4%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 67.7% · Market 74.4%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0e51ddStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 19.6% · Market 16.9%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 80.4% · Market 85.9%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0e51ddStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 24.6% · Market 29.4%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 75.4% · Market 74.4%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n976b18Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -116Model 50.8% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 50.7% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%-116 → -107Logit -0.081 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n976b18Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers +109Model 49.5% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers -103Model 55.0% · Market 50.7%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.9%+109 → -103Logit 0.116 | 9 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n976b18Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassOver 9.5 +152Model 38.8% · Market 40.2%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 61.2% · Market 63.2%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n976b18Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-3 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 80.5% · Market 82.1%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 19.5% · Market 21.1%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n976b18Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassOver 5.5 -360Model 75.2% · Market 78.3%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +296Model 24.8% · Market 25.3%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n976b18Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-3 | PassUnder 7.5 +129Model 43.5% · Market 44.2%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -142Model 56.5% · Market 59.2%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n976b18Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 67.8% · Market 70.5%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 32.2% · Market 33.6%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n976b18Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-3 | PassUnder 6.5 +198Model 32.4% · Market 33.6%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -239Model 67.6% · Market 70.5%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n976b18Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 9.9% · Market 10.6%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 90.1% · Market 91.6%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n976b18Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 85.0% · Market 86.8%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 15.0% · Market 15.9%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n976b18Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-3 | PassUnder 11.5 -322Model 75.5% · Market 76.3%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +266Model 24.5% · Market 27.3%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n133c8fStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassPhiladelphia Phillies +109Model 51.7% · Market 47.9%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 7.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassPhiladelphia Phillies +105Model 48.5% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+109 → +105Logit 0.037 | 9 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n133c8fStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 48.1% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 48.6% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+101 → +105Logit -0.039 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n133c8fStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-0 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.9% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +114Model 48.9% · Market 47.3%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.5%-103 → +114Logit -0.138 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n133c8fStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-0 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 33.5% · Market 39.2%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 66.5% · Market 65.1%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n133c8fStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-0 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 71.2% · Market 77.3%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 28.8% · Market 26.3%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n133c8fStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-0 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 72.9% · Market 71.5%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 27.1% · Market 32.5%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n133c8fStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 12.0% · Market 10.6%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 88.0% · Market 92.5%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1236 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n133c8fStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-0 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 20.1% · Market 24.2%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 79.9% · Market 79.2%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n133c8fStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-0 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 37.1% · Market 34.6%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 62.9% · Market 69.5%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n133c8fStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-0 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 84.5% · Market 83.0%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 8.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 15.5% · Market 20.1%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n133c8fStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-0 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 82.1% · Market 86.8%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 17.9% · Market 15.9%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n1ebb50Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassHouston Astros -131Model 56.3% · Market 56.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassKansas City Royals +124Model 43.0% · Market 44.6%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +124 | 7 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n1ebb50Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 50.8% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.6% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%-103 → +105Logit -0.078 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n1ebb50Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -142Model 60.5% · Market 59.2%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +129Model 39.5% · Market 43.7%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +129 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n1ebb50Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 32.9% · Market 37.1%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -199Model 67.1% · Market 66.6%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n1ebb50Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +625Model 14.5% · Market 13.8%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -788Model 85.5% · Market 88.7%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n1ebb50Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 9.5% · Market 8.5%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 90.5% · Market 93.5%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1074 → -1428 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n1ebb50Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassOver 5.5 -430Model 75.9% · Market 81.1%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +351Model 24.1% · Market 22.2%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n1ebb50Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassUnder 7.5 +140Model 42.8% · Market 41.7%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -175Model 57.2% · Market 63.6%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n1ebb50Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 12.5 -381Model 80.0% · Market 79.2%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +313Model 20.0% · Market 24.2%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n1ebb50Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 13.5 -564Model 85.6% · Market 84.9%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +456Model 14.4% · Market 18.0%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n1ebb50Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +240Model 31.6% · Market 29.4%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -290Model 68.4% · Market 74.4%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n1ebb50Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -290Model 74.8% · Market 74.4%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +240Model 25.2% · Market 29.4%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n3400b0Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 +101Model 50.2% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 +101Model 50.1% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+101 → +101Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n3400b0Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassColorado Rockies +140Model 45.7% · Market 41.7%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassColorado Rockies +166Model 39.8% · Market 37.6%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.1%+140 → +166Logit -0.171 | 7 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n3400b0Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassUnder 8.5 +198Model 31.3% · Market 33.6%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -239Model 68.7% · Market 70.5%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n3400b0Starts | TotalOpening line 15.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassOver 15.5 +398Model 20.1% · Market 20.1%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 15.5 -489Model 79.9% · Market 83.0%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n3400b0Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassUnder 9.5 +134Model 40.3% · Market 43.2%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 -148Model 59.7% · Market 60.2%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n3400b0Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +456Model 17.2% · Market 18.0%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -564Model 82.8% · Market 84.9%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n3400b0Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-2 | PassOver 7.5 -322Model 74.8% · Market 76.3%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +266Model 25.2% · Market 27.3%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n3400b0Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-2 | PassOver 5.5 -869Model 87.6% · Market 89.7%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +685Model 12.4% · Market 12.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n3400b0Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-2 | PassUnder 12.5 -199Model 61.5% · Market 66.6%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +159Model 38.5% · Market 38.6%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +159 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n3400b0Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassOver 13.5 +218Model 30.7% · Market 31.4%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -263Model 69.3% · Market 72.5%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n3400b0Starts | TotalOpening line 14.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-2 | PassUnder 14.5 -360Model 74.3% · Market 78.3%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 14.5 +296Model 25.7% · Market 25.3%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n3400b0Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassOver 11.5 +129Model 44.6% · Market 44.2%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -142Model 55.4% · Market 59.2%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n2a8871Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +266Model 35.9% · Market 27.3%Edge +8.6% · Full Kelly 11.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +229Model 30.5% · Market 30.4%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.1%+266 → +229Logit 0.150 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n2a8871Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 50.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 50.1% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%-107 → +101Logit -0.078 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n2a8871Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-10 | PassUnder 9.5 -228Model 64.1% · Market 69.5%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +189Model 35.9% · Market 34.6%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n2a8871Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-10 | PassUnder 8.5 -137Model 54.3% · Market 58.7%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +124Model 45.7% · Market 44.6%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n2a8871Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-10 | PassOver 6.5 -183Model 65.1% · Market 65.1%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +165Model 34.9% · Market 38.2%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n2a8871Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-10 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 83.5% · Market 84.0%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 16.5% · Market 19.0%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n2a8871Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-10 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 77.8% · Market 82.1%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 22.2% · Market 21.1%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n2a8871Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-10 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 26.8% · Market 29.4%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 73.2% · Market 74.4%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n2a8871Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-10 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 10.9% · Market 13.8%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 89.1% · Market 89.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n2a8871Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-10 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 70.5% · Market 75.4%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 29.5% · Market 28.4%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nec88d6Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds +140Model 45.3% · Market 41.7%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +140Model 40.2% · Market 41.7%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+140 → +140Logit 0.000 | 7 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nec88d6Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -116Model 51.3% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 +105Model 51.3% · Market 48.8%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.9%-116 → +105Logit -0.197 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nec88d6Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -191Model 70.8% · Market 66.1%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 15.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -191Model 70.8% · Market 65.6%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 15.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%-191 → -191Logit -0.020 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nec88d6Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-2 | PassOver 12.5 +218Model 23.8% · Market 31.4%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -263Model 76.2% · Market 72.5%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 13.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nec88d6Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-2 | PassOver 10.5 +114Model 37.3% · Market 47.3%Edge -10.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -126Model 62.7% · Market 56.8%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 15.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -126 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nec88d6Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +1074Model 12.5% · Market 8.5%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -1428Model 87.5% · Market 93.5%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1074 → -1428 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nec88d6Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-2 | PassOver 3.5 -2580Model 91.9% · Market 96.3%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1775Model 8.1% · Market 5.3%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-2580 → +1775 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nec88d6Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-2 | PassUnder 7.5 +208Model 38.6% · Market 32.5%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -251Model 61.4% · Market 71.5%Edge -10.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nec88d6Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-2 | PassOver 6.5 -430Model 72.0% · Market 81.1%Edge -9.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +351Model 28.0% · Market 22.2%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 7.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nec88d6Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-2 | PassOver 5.5 -660Model 78.8% · Market 86.8%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +529Model 21.2% · Market 15.9%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nec88d6Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-2 | PassUnder 8.5 +152Model 46.0% · Market 39.7%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 10.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -183Model 54.0% · Market 64.7%Edge -10.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nec88d6Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-2 | PassOver 13.5 +313Model 17.5% · Market 24.2%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -381Model 82.5% · Market 79.2%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 15.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n00a63bStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassPittsburgh Pirates +119Model 47.0% · Market 45.7%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMilwaukee Brewers -142Model 56.0% · Market 58.7%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -142 | 9 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n00a63bStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.5% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+105 → +105Logit 0.000 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n00a63bStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-7 | PassUnder 5.5 +331Model 22.0% · Market 23.2%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -404Model 78.0% · Market 80.2%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n00a63bStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-7 | PassOver 4.5 -788Model 86.9% · Market 88.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +625Model 13.1% · Market 13.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n00a63bStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-7 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 28.0% · Market 28.4%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 72.0% · Market 75.4%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n00a63bStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-7 | PassOver 7.5 -161Model 60.3% · Market 61.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +134Model 39.7% · Market 42.7%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n00a63bStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-7 | PassUnder 6.5 +218Model 29.0% · Market 31.4%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -263Model 71.0% · Market 72.5%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n00a63bStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-7 | PassOver 9.5 +105Model 48.2% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +134Model 42.8% · Market 43.2%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.6%+105 → +134Logit -0.225 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n00a63bStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-7 | PassUnder 10.5 -191Model 63.9% · Market 66.6%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 36.1% · Market 36.6%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n00a63bStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-7 | PassUnder 12.5 -404Model 77.3% · Market 80.2%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +331Model 22.7% · Market 23.2%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n00a63bStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-7 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 91.5% · Market 92.5%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 8.5% · Market 9.6%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +945 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n00a63bStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-7 | PassOver 13.5 +425Model 16.6% · Market 19.0%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -525Model 83.4% · Market 84.0%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n4ffabfStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMiami Marlins +109Model 45.1% · Market 47.9%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassArizona Diamondbacks -142Model 57.7% · Market 58.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+109 → -142 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n4ffabfStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +109Model 50.6% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +114Model 50.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 7.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%+109 → +114Logit -0.045 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n4ffabfStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassOver 9.5 +105Model 48.0% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -137Model 61.9% · Market 58.2%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 9.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -137 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n4ffabfStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 10.1% · Market 8.5%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 89.9% · Market 93.5%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1074 → -1428 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n4ffabfStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassOver 5.5 -404Model 74.8% · Market 80.2%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +331Model 25.2% · Market 23.2%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n4ffabfStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassUnder 13.5 -564Model 86.6% · Market 84.9%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 10.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +456Model 13.4% · Market 18.0%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n4ffabfStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassUnder 12.5 -381Model 81.1% · Market 79.2%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 9.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +313Model 18.9% · Market 24.2%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n4ffabfStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 31.5% · Market 37.1%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -191Model 68.5% · Market 66.1%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 8.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n4ffabfStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassUnder 6.5 +240Model 32.9% · Market 29.4%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -290Model 67.1% · Market 74.4%Edge -7.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n4ffabfStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassUnder 11.5 -290Model 76.1% · Market 74.4%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +240Model 23.9% · Market 29.4%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n4ffabfStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassOver 7.5 -168Model 55.8% · Market 62.7%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +140Model 44.2% · Market 41.7%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n4ffabfStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassOver 4.5 -788Model 84.7% · Market 88.7%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +625Model 15.3% · Market 13.8%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n0db9c2Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels +105Model 50.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Angels +109Model 46.3% · Market 47.9%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+105 → +109Logit -0.037 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n0db9c2Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +114Model 50.3% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 49.9% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.1%+114 → +109Logit 0.045 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n0db9c2Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 10.5% · Market 12.7%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 89.5% · Market 90.6%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n0db9c2Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-2 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 18.3% · Market 18.0%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 81.7% · Market 84.9%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n0db9c2Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 76.8% · Market 81.1%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 23.2% · Market 22.2%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n0db9c2Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-2 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 48.7% · Market 50.7%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 47.1% · Market 46.7%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%-103 → +114Logit -0.161 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n0db9c2Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 69.4% · Market 74.4%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 30.6% · Market 29.4%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n0db9c2Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 74.0% · Market 73.4%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 26.0% · Market 30.4%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n0db9c2Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 15.9% · Market 18.0%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 84.1% · Market 84.9%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n0db9c2Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -200Model 62.8% · Market 67.1%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +180Model 37.2% · Market 36.2%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n0db9c2Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 66.2% · Market 66.6%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 33.8% · Market 37.6%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n80af7fStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 +109Model 50.2% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 +105Model 50.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+109 → +105Logit 0.037 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n80af7fStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassColorado Rockies +173Model 45.3% · Market 36.6%Edge +8.7% · Full Kelly 13.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassColorado Rockies +146Model 39.5% · Market 40.6%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +4.0%+173 → +146Logit 0.170 | 6 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n80af7fStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-3 | PassOver 12.5 +152Model 37.4% · Market 40.2%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -175Model 62.6% · Market 63.6%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n80af7fStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-3 | PassUnder 7.5 +296Model 26.0% · Market 25.3%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -360Model 74.0% · Market 78.3%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n80af7fStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-3 | PassOver 11.5 +101Model 48.7% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -137Model 56.4% · Market 57.8%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → -137 | 5 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n80af7fStarts | TotalOpening line 14.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-3 | PassUnder 14.5 -322Model 75.3% · Market 76.3%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 14.5 +266Model 24.7% · Market 27.3%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n80af7fStarts | TotalOpening line 15.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-3 | PassOver 15.5 +373Model 19.3% · Market 21.1%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 15.5 -458Model 80.7% · Market 82.1%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n80af7fStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-3 | PassUnder 13.5 -251Model 70.3% · Market 71.5%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +208Model 29.7% · Market 32.5%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n80af7fStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-3 | PassOver 6.5 -609Model 82.2% · Market 85.9%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +490Model 17.8% · Market 16.9%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n80af7fStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-3 | PassOver 8.5 -263Model 67.8% · Market 72.5%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +218Model 32.2% · Market 31.4%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n80af7fStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-3 | PassUnder 9.5 +146Model 41.3% · Market 40.7%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 -175Model 58.7% · Market 63.6%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n80af7fStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-3 | PassOver 5.5 -869Model 87.1% · Market 89.7%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +685Model 12.9% · Market 12.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n5167f3Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassHouston Astros -142Model 57.8% · Market 58.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassKansas City Royals +140Model 41.2% · Market 41.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +140 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n5167f3Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 50.7% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +114Model 50.2% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%-103 → +114Logit -0.161 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n5167f3Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -183Model 64.0% · Market 65.6%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +165Model 36.0% · Market 38.2%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n5167f3Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassOver 9.5 +124Model 42.7% · Market 44.6%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +129Model 42.7% · Market 44.2%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%+124 → +129Logit -0.020 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n5167f3Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 91.6% · Market 93.5%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 8.4% · Market 8.5%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1428 → +1074 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n5167f3Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -290Model 72.0% · Market 74.4%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +240Model 28.0% · Market 29.4%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n5167f3Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-2 | PassOver 12.5 +313Model 22.6% · Market 24.2%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -404Model 77.4% · Market 80.2%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n5167f3Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-2 | PassOver 7.5 -175Model 60.2% · Market 63.6%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +140Model 39.8% · Market 41.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n5167f3Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +625Model 13.0% · Market 13.8%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -788Model 87.0% · Market 88.7%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n5167f3Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassOver 5.5 -430Model 78.1% · Market 81.1%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +331Model 21.9% · Market 23.2%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n5167f3Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassOver 6.5 -290Model 71.0% · Market 74.4%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +229Model 29.0% · Market 30.4%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n5167f3Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-2 | PassOver 13.5 +490Model 16.5% · Market 16.9%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -609Model 83.5% · Market 85.9%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nf786edStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBoston Red Sox +101Model 50.2% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBoston Red Sox -112Model 50.8% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.1%+101 → -112Logit 0.123 | 7 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nf786edStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.0% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 49.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%-103 → +109Logit -0.116 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nf786edStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 35.5% · Market 30.4%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 7.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 64.5% · Market 73.4%Edge -8.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nf786edStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 13.2% · Market 16.9%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 86.8% · Market 85.9%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nf786edStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 27.5% · Market 23.2%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 72.5% · Market 81.1%Edge -8.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nf786edStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 57.8% · Market 66.1%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 42.2% · Market 37.1%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 8.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nf786edStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 91.4% · Market 90.6%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 7.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 8.6% · Market 11.7%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nf786edStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 22.2% · Market 28.4%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 77.8% · Market 75.4%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 9.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nf786edStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 50.0% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 52.2% · Market 47.3%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 10.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.6%+109 → +114Logit -0.023 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nf786edStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 70.6% · Market 67.5%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 9.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 29.4% · Market 36.6%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nab47e8Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago Cubs -131Model 53.9% · Market 56.7%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAtlanta Braves +134Model 43.0% · Market 42.7%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +134 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nab47e8Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -112Model 49.4% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -103Model 50.9% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → -103 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nab47e8Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-8 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 91.8% · Market 88.7%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 27.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 8.2% · Market 13.8%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nab47e8Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-8 | PassUnder 5.5 +208Model 21.3% · Market 32.5%Edge -11.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -251Model 78.7% · Market 71.5%Edge +7.2% · Full Kelly 25.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nab47e8Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-8 | PassOver 10.5 +280Model 36.8% · Market 26.3%Edge +10.5% · Full Kelly 14.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -340Model 63.2% · Market 77.3%Edge -14.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nab47e8Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-8 | PassUnder 6.5 +146Model 28.3% · Market 40.7%Edge -12.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -175Model 71.7% · Market 63.6%Edge +8.1% · Full Kelly 22.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nab47e8Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-8 | PassUnder 11.5 -525Model 71.3% · Market 84.0%Edge -12.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +425Model 28.7% · Market 19.0%Edge +9.7% · Full Kelly 12.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nab47e8Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-8 | PassOver 12.5 +574Model 23.3% · Market 14.8%Edge +8.5% · Full Kelly 9.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -719Model 76.7% · Market 87.8%Edge -11.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nab47e8Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-8 | PassOver 9.5 +206Model 43.6% · Market 33.1%Edge +10.5% · Full Kelly 16.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -229Model 56.4% · Market 70.1%Edge -13.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+206 → -229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nab47e8Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-8 | PassUnder 8.5 -155Model 46.4% · Market 61.2%Edge -14.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +140Model 53.6% · Market 42.2%Edge +11.4% · Full Kelly 20.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-155 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nab47e8Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-8 | PassOver 4.5 -489Model 87.4% · Market 83.0%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 25.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 12.6% · Market 20.1%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n811f44Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBaltimore Orioles +114Model 51.4% · Market 46.7%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 8.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBaltimore Orioles -103Model 50.2% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +4.0%+114 → -103Logit 0.161 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n811f44Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-1 | PassOver 9.5 +124Model 36.7% · Market 45.2%Edge -8.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +119Model 47.7% · Market 45.7%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.5%+124 → +119Logit 0.020 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n811f44Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-1 | PassUnder 7.5 +152Model 45.6% · Market 40.2%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 9.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -175Model 54.4% · Market 64.2%Edge -9.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n811f44Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-1 | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 51.2% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +124Model 53.4% · Market 45.7%Edge +7.7% · Full Kelly 15.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -7.1%-112 → +124Logit -0.286 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n811f44Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-1 | PassUnder 4.5 +685Model 16.1% · Market 12.7%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -869Model 83.9% · Market 89.7%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n811f44Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-1 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 10.7% · Market 8.5%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 89.3% · Market 93.5%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1074 → -1428 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n811f44Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-1 | PassUnder 5.5 +373Model 26.3% · Market 21.1%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -458Model 73.7% · Market 82.1%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n811f44Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-1 | PassOver 6.5 -306Model 65.8% · Market 75.4%Edge -9.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +252Model 34.2% · Market 28.4%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 8.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n811f44Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-1 | PassUnder 10.5 -191Model 69.9% · Market 65.6%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 12.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +159Model 30.1% · Market 38.6%Edge -8.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +159 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n811f44Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-1 | PassUnder 11.5 -276Model 77.3% · Market 73.4%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 14.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +229Model 22.7% · Market 30.4%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n811f44Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-1 | PassOver 12.5 +296Model 17.9% · Market 25.3%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -360Model 82.1% · Market 78.3%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 17.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n0bdf35Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals +114Model 47.9% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals +166Model 43.5% · Market 37.6%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 9.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -9.1%+114 → +166Logit -0.376 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n0bdf35Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 50.1% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +114Model 49.5% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → +114 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n0bdf35Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-0 | PassUnder 5.5 +351Model 18.6% · Market 22.2%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -430Model 81.4% · Market 81.1%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n0bdf35Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-0 | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 49.7% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +152Model 34.9% · Market 40.2%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -11.5%-107 → +152Logit -0.466 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n0bdf35Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-0 | PassUnder 6.5 +240Model 25.0% · Market 29.5%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -265Model 75.0% · Market 73.5%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 8.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -265 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n0bdf35Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-0 | PassOver 4.5 -869Model 89.2% · Market 89.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +685Model 10.8% · Market 12.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n0bdf35Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-0 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 6.9% · Market 9.6%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 93.1% · Market 93.5%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+945 → -1428 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n0bdf35Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-0 | PassUnder 10.5 -199Model 58.7% · Market 66.6%Edge -7.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +166Model 41.3% · Market 37.6%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n0bdf35Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-0 | PassOver 9.5 +134Model 48.1% · Market 44.2%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 9.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -142Model 51.9% · Market 59.2%Edge -7.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n0bdf35Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-0 | PassOver 11.5 +229Model 32.9% · Market 30.4%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -276Model 67.1% · Market 73.4%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n3567c3Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds +152Model 42.7% · Market 39.7%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +181Model 38.0% · Market 35.6%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.1%+152 → +181Logit -0.174 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n3567c3Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 50.2% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 50.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → +109 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n3567c3Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 53.1% · Market 63.2%Edge -10.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +165Model 46.9% · Market 38.7%Edge +8.2% · Full Kelly 14.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n3567c3Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 64.0% · Market 58.2%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 14.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 36.0% · Market 45.7%Edge -9.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n3567c3Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 73.8% · Market 83.0%Edge -9.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 26.2% · Market 20.1%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 7.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n3567c3Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 88.7% · Market 86.8%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 14.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 11.3% · Market 16.9%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n3567c3Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 59.9% · Market 70.5%Edge -10.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 40.1% · Market 33.6%Edge +6.6% · Full Kelly 9.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n3567c3Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 68.2% · Market 78.3%Edge -10.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 31.8% · Market 25.3%Edge +6.6% · Full Kelly 8.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n3567c3Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 7.3% · Market 10.6%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 92.7% · Market 92.5%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1236 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n3567c3Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 74.1% · Market 69.5%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 15.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 25.9% · Market 34.6%Edge -8.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n3567c3Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 80.6% · Market 76.3%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 18.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 19.4% · Market 27.3%Edge -7.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nca25f9Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Pending3-4 | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 50.2% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +114Model 49.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 5.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.0%-107 → +114Logit -0.199 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nca25f9Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +189Model 38.9% · Market 34.6%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTampa Bay Rays -175Model 66.2% · Market 63.6%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 7.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -175 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nca25f9Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 48.8% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -126Model 51.7% · Market 56.2%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -126 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nca25f9Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 24.3% · Market 23.2%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 75.7% · Market 80.2%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nca25f9Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 68.2% · Market 73.4%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 31.8% · Market 30.4%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nca25f9Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 9.5 +166Model 38.4% · Market 37.6%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -199Model 61.6% · Market 66.6%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nca25f9Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 84.9% · Market 85.9%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 15.1% · Market 16.9%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nca25f9Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 24.9% · Market 28.4%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 75.1% · Market 75.4%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nca25f9Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 19.2% · Market 18.0%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 80.8% · Market 84.9%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nca25f9Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 10.0% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 90.0% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nca25f9Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 6.5 +146Model 48.6% · Market 40.6%Edge +8.0% · Full Kelly 13.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +180Model 32.7% · Market 36.2%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.5%+146 → +180Logit -0.189 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66ne8ea3cStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassPittsburgh Pirates +114Model 47.1% · Market 46.7%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassPittsburgh Pirates +114Model 45.4% · Market 46.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+114 → +114Logit 0.000 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66ne8ea3cStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 49.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -103Model 50.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -103 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66ne8ea3cStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassUnder 8.5 -155Model 49.2% · Market 61.7%Edge -12.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +140Model 50.8% · Market 42.2%Edge +8.6% · Full Kelly 15.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-155 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66ne8ea3cStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassOver 11.5 +425Model 26.3% · Market 19.0%Edge +7.3% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -525Model 73.7% · Market 84.0%Edge -10.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66ne8ea3cStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassOver 9.5 +208Model 40.9% · Market 32.5%Edge +8.4% · Full Kelly 12.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -251Model 59.1% · Market 71.5%Edge -12.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66ne8ea3cStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassOver 5.5 -239Model 76.8% · Market 70.5%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 21.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +198Model 23.2% · Market 33.6%Edge -10.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66ne8ea3cStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassOver 4.5 -458Model 86.1% · Market 82.1%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 22.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +373Model 13.9% · Market 21.1%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66ne8ea3cStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassOver 6.5 -161Model 69.4% · Market 62.2%Edge +7.2% · Full Kelly 20.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +146Model 30.6% · Market 41.2%Edge -10.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66ne8ea3cStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 90.9% · Market 88.7%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 18.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 9.1% · Market 14.8%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66ne8ea3cStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassUnder 10.5 -322Model 65.8% · Market 76.3%Edge -10.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +266Model 34.2% · Market 27.3%Edge +6.8% · Full Kelly 9.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n14daf8Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassToronto Blue Jays -126Model 53.0% · Market 55.8%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers +109Model 47.9% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-126 → +109 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n14daf8Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.2% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-103 → -103Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n14daf8Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-5 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 9.1% · Market 10.6%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 90.9% · Market 91.6%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n14daf8Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-5 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 34.2% · Market 32.5%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 65.8% · Market 71.5%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n14daf8Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-5 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 21.1% · Market 20.1%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 78.9% · Market 83.0%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n14daf8Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-5 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 41.4% · Market 45.2%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 58.6% · Market 58.2%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -137 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n14daf8Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-5 | PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 59.1% · Market 63.7%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +152Model 40.9% · Market 39.7%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n14daf8Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-5 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 26.3% · Market 24.2%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 73.7% · Market 79.2%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n14daf8Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-5 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 86.1% · Market 86.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 13.9% · Market 15.9%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n14daf8Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-5 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 69.5% · Market 69.5%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 30.5% · Market 34.6%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n14daf8Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-5 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 76.9% · Market 76.3%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 23.1% · Market 27.3%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nc5f29cStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMinnesota Twins +134Model 50.0% · Market 42.7%Edge +7.3% · Full Kelly 12.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMinnesota Twins +146Model 42.0% · Market 40.6%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.1%+134 → +146Logit -0.086 | 6 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nc5f29cStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.6% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 50.0% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%-107 → +105Logit -0.116 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nc5f29cStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 27.8% · Market 35.6%Edge -7.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 72.2% · Market 68.6%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 11.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nc5f29cStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 62.2% · Market 71.5%Edge -9.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 37.8% · Market 32.5%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 7.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nc5f29cStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 87.6% · Market 86.8%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 12.4% · Market 16.9%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nc5f29cStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.4% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 38.2% · Market 46.2%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.6%+101 → +119Logit -0.142 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nc5f29cStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 70.4% · Market 80.2%Edge -9.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 29.6% · Market 23.2%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 8.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nc5f29cStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 92.0% · Market 91.6%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 8.0% · Market 10.6%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nc5f29cStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassOver 9.5 +165Model 44.5% · Market 38.2%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 10.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 55.5% · Market 65.1%Edge -9.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+165 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nc5f29cStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 21.0% · Market 26.3%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 79.0% · Market 77.3%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 7.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nc5f29cStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 24.2% · Market 19.0%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 75.8% · Market 84.0%Edge -8.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n811cd0Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.0% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.6% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%-107 → +101Logit -0.078 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n811cd0Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSt. Louis Cardinals -148Model 58.1% · Market 59.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants +134Model 42.1% · Market 42.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 6 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n811cd0Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 13.6% · Market 15.9%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 86.4% · Market 86.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n811cd0Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-5 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 34.7% · Market 31.4%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 65.3% · Market 72.5%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n811cd0Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 22.7% · Market 26.3%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 77.3% · Market 77.3%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n811cd0Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 58.6% · Market 65.1%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +165Model 41.4% · Market 38.2%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n811cd0Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 26.8% · Market 23.2%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 73.2% · Market 80.2%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n811cd0Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 21.5% · Market 20.1%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 78.5% · Market 83.0%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n811cd0Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 30.0% · Market 34.6%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 70.0% · Market 69.5%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n811cd0Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 8.9% · Market 11.7%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 91.1% · Market 91.6%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n811cd0Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-5 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 59.0% · Market 57.3%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 41.0% · Market 46.2%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +119 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nf44f3bStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +124Model 35.7% · Market 44.6%Edge -9.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +114Model 48.6% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.1%+124 → +114Logit 0.084 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nf44f3bStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago White Sox +119Model 46.2% · Market 45.7%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago White Sox +129Model 44.0% · Market 43.7%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%+119 → +129Logit -0.081 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nf44f3bStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 50.3% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +129Model 52.7% · Market 44.2%Edge +8.6% · Full Kelly 16.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → +129 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nf44f3bStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassOver 8.5 +165Model 44.8% · Market 38.2%Edge +6.7% · Full Kelly 11.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -199Model 55.2% · Market 66.6%Edge -11.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+165 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nf44f3bStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassOver 9.5 +252Model 35.0% · Market 28.5%Edge +6.5% · Full Kelly 9.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -293Model 65.0% · Market 75.4%Edge -10.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -293 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nf44f3bStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassOver 10.5 +351Model 28.5% · Market 22.2%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 8.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -430Model 71.5% · Market 81.1%Edge -9.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nf44f3bStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +331Model 17.0% · Market 23.2%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -404Model 83.0% · Market 80.2%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 14.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nf44f3bStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassUnder 12.5 -869Model 83.4% · Market 89.7%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +685Model 16.6% · Market 12.7%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nf44f3bStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 21.3% · Market 18.0%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 78.7% · Market 84.9%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nf44f3bStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassUnder 3.5 +490Model 11.3% · Market 16.9%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 88.7% · Market 86.8%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 14.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nf44f3bStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassOver 5.5 -208Model 72.5% · Market 67.5%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 15.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +173Model 27.5% · Market 36.6%Edge -9.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n965ee5Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.4% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.1% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → +105 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n965ee5Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMiami Marlins +119Model 44.4% · Market 45.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins +134Model 41.2% · Market 42.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%+119 → +134Logit -0.118 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n965ee5Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassOver 7.5 -161Model 59.0% · Market 62.2%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -161Model 60.8% · Market 61.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%-161 → -161Logit -0.021 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n965ee5Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassOver 9.5 +134Model 41.4% · Market 43.2%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -148Model 58.6% · Market 60.2%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n965ee5Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 12.5 -430Model 78.5% · Market 81.1%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +351Model 21.5% · Market 22.2%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n965ee5Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 91.1% · Market 92.5%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 8.9% · Market 9.6%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +945 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n965ee5Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassOver 4.5 -788Model 86.4% · Market 88.7%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +625Model 13.6% · Market 13.8%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n965ee5Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 73.2% · Market 75.4%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 26.8% · Market 28.4%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n965ee5Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +229Model 30.1% · Market 30.4%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -276Model 69.9% · Market 73.4%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n965ee5Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassUnder 5.5 +313Model 22.8% · Market 24.2%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 77.2% · Market 79.2%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n965ee5Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -218Model 65.3% · Market 68.6%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +181Model 34.7% · Market 35.6%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n0f156bStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 50.3% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 49.5% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.8%-107 → +109Logit -0.154 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n0f156bStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels +119Model 48.1% · Market 45.7%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Angels +146Model 43.0% · Market 40.6%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.0%+119 → +146Logit -0.204 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n0f156bStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 24.0% · Market 29.4%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 76.0% · Market 74.4%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n0f156bStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 48.7% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 50.0% · Market 47.3%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.5%+105 → +114Logit -0.060 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n0f156bStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 25.7% · Market 24.2%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 74.3% · Market 79.2%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n0f156bStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 79.4% · Market 84.0%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 20.6% · Market 19.0%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n0f156bStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 33.4% · Market 31.4%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 66.6% · Market 72.5%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n0f156bStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 40.1% · Market 37.1%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 59.9% · Market 66.1%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n0f156bStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 9.5% · Market 11.7%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 90.5% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n0f156bStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 85.5% · Market 85.9%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 14.5% · Market 18.0%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n0f156bStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 68.6% · Market 67.5%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 31.4% · Market 36.6%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n69bae5Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 +109Model 50.0% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 +109Model 50.0% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+109 → +109Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n69bae5Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassColorado Rockies +114Model 44.5% · Market 46.7%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassColorado Rockies +159Model 40.4% · Market 38.6%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -8.1%+114 → +159Logit -0.333 | 5 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n69bae5Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-9 | PassUnder 11.5 -107Model 51.4% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +114Model 45.5% · Market 47.3%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → +114 | 6 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n69bae5Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-9 | PassOver 9.5 -175Model 60.5% · Market 63.6%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 +146Model 39.5% · Market 40.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n69bae5Starts | TotalOpening line 15.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-9 | PassOver 15.5 +373Model 20.8% · Market 21.1%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 15.5 -458Model 79.2% · Market 82.1%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n69bae5Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-9 | PassUnder 5.5 +841Model 12.1% · Market 10.6%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -1087Model 87.9% · Market 91.6%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n69bae5Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-9 | PassUnder 13.5 -239Model 68.5% · Market 70.5%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +198Model 31.5% · Market 33.6%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n69bae5Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-9 | PassOver 6.5 -660Model 83.3% · Market 86.8%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +529Model 16.7% · Market 15.9%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n69bae5Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-9 | PassOver 12.5 +152Model 39.3% · Market 40.2%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -168Model 60.7% · Market 63.2%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n69bae5Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-9 | PassUnder 7.5 +313Model 24.6% · Market 24.2%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -381Model 75.4% · Market 79.2%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n69bae5Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-9 | PassOver 8.5 -276Model 69.4% · Market 73.4%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +229Model 30.6% · Market 30.4%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n69bae5Starts | TotalOpening line 14.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-9 | PassOver 14.5 +266Model 26.4% · Market 27.3%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 14.5 -322Model 73.6% · Market 76.3%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n9f9be2Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassHouston Astros -161Model 61.0% · Market 61.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassKansas City Royals +134Model 41.6% · Market 42.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +134 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n9f9be2Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -116Model 50.1% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 50.0% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.9%-116 → +109Logit -0.234 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n9f9be2Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassUnder 8.5 -126Model 53.5% · Market 56.2%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -131Model 53.5% · Market 56.7%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.5%-126 → -131Logit 0.019 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n9f9be2Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 17.8% · Market 18.0%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 82.2% · Market 84.9%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n9f9be2Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassUnder 9.5 -208Model 63.4% · Market 67.5%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 36.6% · Market 36.6%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n9f9be2Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 89.4% · Market 90.6%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 10.6% · Market 12.7%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n9f9be2Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 30.1% · Market 31.4%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 69.9% · Market 72.5%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n9f9be2Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 83.9% · Market 84.9%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 16.1% · Market 18.0%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n9f9be2Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 73.7% · Market 75.4%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 26.3% · Market 29.4%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n9f9be2Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 22.6% · Market 22.2%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 77.4% · Market 81.1%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n9f9be2Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 65.8% · Market 66.6%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +180Model 34.2% · Market 36.7%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nb954e2Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBoston Red Sox -116Model 50.6% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBoston Red Sox +119Model 48.6% · Market 45.7%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -8.0%-116 → +119Logit -0.322 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nb954e2Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.0% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+101 → -103Logit 0.040 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nb954e2Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 74.7% · Market 81.1%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 25.3% · Market 22.2%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nb954e2Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 9.5 +181Model 39.7% · Market 35.6%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -218Model 60.3% · Market 68.6%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nb954e2Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 67.0% · Market 75.4%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 33.0% · Market 28.4%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nb954e2Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 20.2% · Market 16.9%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -660Model 79.8% · Market 86.8%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nb954e2Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 6.5 -191Model 68.5% · Market 66.1%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 8.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 31.5% · Market 37.1%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nb954e2Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 50.0% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -137Model 50.3% · Market 58.2%Edge -7.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -137 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nb954e2Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 14.5% · Market 19.0%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 85.5% · Market 84.9%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nb954e2Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 76.0% · Market 73.4%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 9.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 24.0% · Market 30.4%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nb954e2Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 9.5% · Market 11.7%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 90.5% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n169d3dStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSt. Louis Cardinals -154Model 61.9% · Market 60.6%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals -175Model 64.6% · Market 63.6%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.0%-154 → -175Logit 0.128 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n169d3dStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Pending10-3 | PassUnder 8.5 -121Model 51.0% · Market 54.8%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-121 → +109 | 6 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n169d3dStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-3 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 49.7% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -126Model 56.6% · Market 56.2%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+109 → -126 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n169d3dStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-3 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 61.0% · Market 66.1%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 39.0% · Market 37.1%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n169d3dStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-3 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 75.5% · Market 77.3%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 24.5% · Market 26.3%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n169d3dStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 67.6% · Market 72.5%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 32.4% · Market 31.4%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n169d3dStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-3 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 90.2% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 9.8% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n169d3dStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-3 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 80.3% · Market 83.0%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 19.7% · Market 20.1%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n169d3dStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-3 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 75.3% · Market 80.2%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 24.7% · Market 23.2%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n169d3dStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-3 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 32.2% · Market 35.6%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 67.8% · Market 68.6%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n169d3dStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 14.8% · Market 18.0%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 85.2% · Market 84.9%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n28270aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago Cubs -137Model 57.7% · Market 57.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago Cubs -142Model 59.5% · Market 58.7%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%-137 → -142Logit 0.036 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n28270aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 50.7% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 50.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.1%-112 → -103Logit -0.084 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n28270aStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 5.5 -360Model 75.9% · Market 78.3%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 24.1% · Market 26.3%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n28270aStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 85.5% · Market 87.8%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 14.5% · Market 14.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n28270aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassUnder 7.5 +129Model 42.9% · Market 44.2%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -142Model 57.1% · Market 59.2%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n28270aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 6.5 -251Model 68.3% · Market 71.5%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +208Model 31.7% · Market 32.5%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n28270aStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassUnder 13.5 -660Model 85.6% · Market 86.8%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +529Model 14.4% · Market 15.9%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n28270aStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 80.0% · Market 82.1%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 20.0% · Market 21.1%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n28270aStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -228Model 67.1% · Market 69.5%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +189Model 32.9% · Market 34.6%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n28270aStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassUnder 9.5 -161Model 60.5% · Market 62.2%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +146Model 39.5% · Market 41.2%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n28270aStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 25.2% · Market 28.4%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 74.8% · Market 75.4%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n28270aStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 9.5% · Market 10.6%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 90.5% · Market 92.5%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1236 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n5296ecStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -112Model 50.9% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -103Model 50.7% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.1%-112 → -103Logit -0.084 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n5296ecStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMinnesota Twins +124Model 48.9% · Market 44.6%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 7.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMinnesota Twins +146Model 44.6% · Market 40.6%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%+124 → +146Logit -0.163 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n5296ecStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-1 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 77.5% · Market 73.4%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 15.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +218Model 22.5% · Market 31.4%Edge -8.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n5296ecStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-1 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 35.4% · Market 28.4%Edge +7.0% · Full Kelly 9.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 64.6% · Market 75.4%Edge -10.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n5296ecStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-1 | PassOver 8.5 +134Model 52.1% · Market 43.2%Edge +8.9% · Full Kelly 16.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -148Model 47.9% · Market 60.2%Edge -12.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n5296ecStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-1 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 86.6% · Market 84.0%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 16.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 13.4% · Market 19.0%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n5296ecStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-1 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 91.2% · Market 88.7%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 21.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 8.8% · Market 13.8%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n5296ecStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-1 | PassUnder 9.5 -228Model 57.9% · Market 69.5%Edge -11.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +189Model 42.1% · Market 34.6%Edge +7.5% · Full Kelly 11.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n5296ecStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-1 | PassUnder 6.5 +165Model 29.6% · Market 38.7%Edge -9.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -183Model 70.4% · Market 64.7%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 16.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+165 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n5296ecStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-1 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 72.5% · Market 82.1%Edge -9.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 27.5% · Market 21.1%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 8.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nddbc40Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBaltimore Orioles +101Model 47.2% · Market 49.8%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBaltimore Orioles +114Model 45.5% · Market 46.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.0%+101 → +114Logit -0.121 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nddbc40Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 48.0% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 48.6% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+109 → +109Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nddbc40Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-5 | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 51.0% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 48.7% · Market 46.8%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.9%-107 → +119Logit -0.198 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nddbc40Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-5 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 33.6% · Market 37.6%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 66.4% · Market 65.6%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nddbc40Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-5 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 88.1% · Market 90.6%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 11.9% · Market 11.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nddbc40Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-5 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 84.4% · Market 84.0%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 15.6% · Market 19.0%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nddbc40Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-5 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 28.6% · Market 27.3%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 71.4% · Market 76.3%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nddbc40Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-5 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 20.2% · Market 24.2%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 79.8% · Market 79.2%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nddbc40Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-5 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 72.7% · Market 73.4%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 27.3% · Market 30.4%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nddbc40Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-5 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 82.2% · Market 85.9%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 17.8% · Market 16.9%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nddbc40Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-5 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 63.1% · Market 68.6%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 36.9% · Market 36.6%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n067de6Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers +105Model 48.3% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers +124Model 47.5% · Market 44.6%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.1%+105 → +124Logit -0.166 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n067de6Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -112Model 49.1% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.5% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.1%-112 → +101Logit -0.123 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n067de6Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-1 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 59.6% · Market 64.2%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 40.4% · Market 39.2%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n067de6Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-1 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 33.7% · Market 33.6%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 66.3% · Market 71.5%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n067de6Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-1 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 76.5% · Market 76.3%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 23.5% · Market 27.3%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n067de6Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-1 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 90.7% · Market 91.6%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 9.3% · Market 11.7%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n067de6Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-1 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 14.1% · Market 16.9%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 85.9% · Market 85.9%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n067de6Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-1 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 30.9% · Market 35.6%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 69.1% · Market 68.6%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n067de6Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-1 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 20.7% · Market 20.1%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 79.3% · Market 83.0%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n067de6Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-1 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.9% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 42.0% · Market 46.2%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.6%+105 → +119Logit -0.104 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n067de6Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-1 | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 25.8% · Market 25.3%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 74.2% · Market 78.3%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n3b55f3Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals +159Model 46.9% · Market 38.6%Edge +8.3% · Full Kelly 13.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals +189Model 40.1% · Market 34.6%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 8.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%+159 → +189Logit -0.173 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n3b55f3Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 50.1% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 50.1% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%-103 → +105Logit -0.078 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n3b55f3Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 54.7% · Market 65.6%Edge -11.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 54.7% · Market 65.1%Edge -10.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%-191 → -183Logit -0.021 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n3b55f3Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 27.1% · Market 35.6%Edge -8.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 72.9% · Market 68.6%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 13.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n3b55f3Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 61.4% · Market 72.5%Edge -11.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 38.6% · Market 31.4%Edge +7.1% · Full Kelly 10.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n3b55f3Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 69.7% · Market 79.2%Edge -9.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 30.3% · Market 24.2%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 8.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n3b55f3Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 48.9% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -126Model 62.6% · Market 56.2%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 15.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → -126 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n3b55f3Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 88.0% · Market 85.9%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 15.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 12.0% · Market 18.0%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n3b55f3Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 79.6% · Market 76.3%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 14.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 20.4% · Market 27.3%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n3b55f3Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 7.8% · Market 12.7%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 92.2% · Market 90.6%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 17.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n3b55f3Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 75.2% · Market 84.0%Edge -8.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 24.8% · Market 19.0%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 7.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n044aebStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 49.7% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +101Model 50.7% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → +101 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n044aebStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassPittsburgh Pirates +140Model 47.0% · Market 41.7%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 9.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassPittsburgh Pirates +173Model 43.3% · Market 36.6%Edge +6.7% · Full Kelly 10.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.0%+140 → +173Logit -0.212 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n044aebStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassOver 8.5 +134Model 52.1% · Market 43.2%Edge +8.9% · Full Kelly 16.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -155Model 47.9% · Market 61.2%Edge -13.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -155 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n044aebStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-1 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 91.2% · Market 88.7%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 21.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 8.8% · Market 14.8%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n044aebStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassOver 11.5 +398Model 27.5% · Market 20.1%Edge +7.4% · Full Kelly 9.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -525Model 72.5% · Market 84.0%Edge -11.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n044aebStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-1 | PassUnder 9.5 -239Model 57.9% · Market 70.5%Edge -12.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +198Model 42.1% · Market 33.6%Edge +8.6% · Full Kelly 12.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n044aebStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassUnder 5.5 +208Model 22.5% · Market 32.5%Edge -9.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -251Model 77.5% · Market 71.5%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 21.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n044aebStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-1 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 64.6% · Market 75.4%Edge -10.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 35.4% · Market 28.4%Edge +7.0% · Full Kelly 9.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n044aebStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 13.4% · Market 20.1%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -489Model 86.6% · Market 83.0%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 20.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n044aebStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassOver 6.5 -168Model 70.4% · Market 63.2%Edge +7.2% · Full Kelly 20.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +152Model 29.6% · Market 40.2%Edge -10.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n15461aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 47.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 48.4% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%-103 → +109Logit -0.116 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n15461aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +189Model 37.3% · Market 34.6%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTampa Bay Rays -228Model 67.8% · Market 69.5%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n15461aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 51.0% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 49.9% · Market 46.2%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 7.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.6%+101 → +119Logit -0.142 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n15461aStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 67.4% · Market 65.6%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 7.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +165Model 32.6% · Market 38.2%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n15461aStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 29.5% · Market 28.4%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 70.5% · Market 75.4%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n15461aStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 15.0% · Market 19.0%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 85.0% · Market 84.9%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n15461aStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 80.6% · Market 80.2%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 19.4% · Market 24.2%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n15461aStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 73.7% · Market 72.5%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 26.3% · Market 31.4%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n15461aStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 81.5% · Market 85.9%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 18.5% · Market 18.0%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n15461aStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 12.4% · Market 12.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 87.6% · Market 90.6%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n15461aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 62.0% · Market 68.6%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 38.0% · Market 35.6%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n837070Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 49.8% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 50.6% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -107 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n837070Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds +159Model 41.9% · Market 38.6%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +198Model 37.9% · Market 33.6%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.0%+159 → +198Logit -0.219 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n837070Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-0 | PassUnder 9.5 -148Model 51.1% · Market 60.7%Edge -9.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +146Model 48.9% · Market 41.2%Edge +7.8% · Full Kelly 13.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n837070Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-0 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 6.7% · Market 9.6%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 93.3% · Market 93.5%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+945 → -1428 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n837070Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-0 | PassOver 11.5 +266Model 33.7% · Market 27.3%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 8.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -322Model 66.3% · Market 76.3%Edge -10.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n837070Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-0 | PassUnder 7.5 +134Model 34.2% · Market 42.7%Edge -8.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -148Model 65.8% · Market 60.7%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 15.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n837070Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-0 | PassUnder 6.5 +208Model 24.4% · Market 32.5%Edge -8.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -251Model 75.6% · Market 71.5%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 14.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n837070Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-0 | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 81.8% · Market 79.2%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 12.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +296Model 18.2% · Market 25.3%Edge -7.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n837070Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-0 | PassOver 10.5 +181Model 42.1% · Market 35.6%Edge +6.6% · Full Kelly 10.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -218Model 57.9% · Market 68.6%Edge -10.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n837070Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-0 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 89.5% · Market 87.8%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 14.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 10.5% · Market 14.8%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n837070Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-0 | PassUnder 12.5 -430Model 72.0% · Market 81.1%Edge -9.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +351Model 28.0% · Market 22.2%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 7.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66ncecb11Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 51.2% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 51.3% · Market 48.8%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%-112 → +105Logit -0.162 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66ncecb11Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago White Sox +105Model 46.9% · Market 48.8%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago White Sox +129Model 43.1% · Market 43.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.1%+105 → +129Logit -0.206 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66ncecb11Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-7 | PassUnder 7.5 +140Model 47.8% · Market 41.7%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 10.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -161Model 52.2% · Market 62.2%Edge -10.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66ncecb11Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 10.5 +166Model 28.1% · Market 37.6%Edge -9.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -199Model 71.9% · Market 66.6%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 16.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66ncecb11Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 5.5 -404Model 72.1% · Market 80.2%Edge -8.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +331Model 27.9% · Market 23.2%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66ncecb11Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 4.5 -788Model 82.7% · Market 88.7%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +625Model 17.3% · Market 13.8%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66ncecb11Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 20.9% · Market 28.4%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 79.1% · Market 75.4%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 15.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66ncecb11Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 9.5 +129Model 34.5% · Market 43.7%Edge -9.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -142Model 65.5% · Market 59.7%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 16.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66ncecb11Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 6.5 -276Model 63.9% · Market 73.4%Edge -9.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +229Model 36.1% · Market 30.4%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 8.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66ncecb11Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-7 | PassUnder 12.5 -430Model 83.7% · Market 81.1%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 13.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +331Model 16.3% · Market 23.2%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66ncecb11Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 88.5% · Market 93.5%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 11.5% · Market 9.6%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1428 → +945 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n502fedStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.3% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.4% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+101 → -103Logit 0.040 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n502fedStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMiami Marlins +119Model 45.7% · Market 45.7%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassArizona Diamondbacks -137Model 57.4% · Market 57.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -137 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n502fedStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-8 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 60.5% · Market 64.6%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 39.5% · Market 39.2%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n502fedStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-8 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 85.4% · Market 86.8%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 14.6% · Market 16.9%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n502fedStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-8 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 90.4% · Market 91.6%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 9.6% · Market 10.6%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n502fedStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-8 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 20.0% · Market 20.1%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 80.0% · Market 83.0%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n502fedStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-8 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 25.1% · Market 24.2%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 74.9% · Market 79.2%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n502fedStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-8 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 24.1% · Market 27.3%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 75.9% · Market 76.3%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n502fedStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-8 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 31.7% · Market 34.6%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 68.3% · Market 69.5%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n502fedStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-8 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.7% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 42.9% · Market 45.2%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.6%-103 → +124Logit -0.224 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n502fedStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-8 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 67.2% · Market 71.5%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 32.8% · Market 32.5%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n43acf1Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels -116Model 51.7% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSeattle Mariners -107Model 49.7% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → -107 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n43acf1Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -107Model 50.6% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -107 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n43acf1Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 9.0% · Market 13.8%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 91.0% · Market 88.7%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 19.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n43acf1Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassOver 11.5 +398Model 26.5% · Market 20.1%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 8.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -489Model 73.5% · Market 83.0%Edge -9.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n43acf1Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 8.5 -148Model 48.9% · Market 60.2%Edge -11.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +134Model 51.1% · Market 43.2%Edge +7.9% · Full Kelly 14.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n43acf1Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 13.8% · Market 20.1%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -489Model 86.2% · Market 83.0%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 18.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n43acf1Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +152Model 30.4% · Market 39.7%Edge -9.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -183Model 69.6% · Market 64.7%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 14.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n43acf1Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassOver 12.5 +529Model 21.3% · Market 15.9%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -660Model 78.7% · Market 86.8%Edge -8.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n43acf1Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassOver 5.5 -263Model 76.9% · Market 72.5%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 16.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +218Model 23.1% · Market 31.4%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n43acf1Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 34.4% · Market 28.4%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 8.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 65.6% · Market 75.4%Edge -9.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n43acf1Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassOver 9.5 +197Model 41.1% · Market 34.1%Edge +7.0% · Full Kelly 11.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -219Model 58.9% · Market 69.1%Edge -10.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+197 → -219 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66nc4135dStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassColorado Rockies +140Model 45.1% · Market 41.7%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassColorado Rockies +181Model 39.4% · Market 35.6%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -6.1%+140 → +181Logit -0.257 | 5 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66nc4135dStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 11.5 -103Model 48.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +109Model 48.8% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%-103 → +109Logit -0.116 | 5 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66nc4135dStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-7 | PassOver 12.5 +146Model 38.6% · Market 41.2%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -161Model 61.4% · Market 61.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66nc4135dStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-7 | PassUnder 10.5 +105Model 50.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 +119Model 46.7% · Market 46.2%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.6%+105 → +119Logit -0.104 | 7 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66nc4135dStarts | TotalOpening line 15.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-7 | PassUnder 15.5 -430Model 79.8% · Market 81.1%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 15.5 +351Model 20.2% · Market 22.2%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66nc4135dStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-7 | PassOver 5.5 -1087Model 87.6% · Market 91.6%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +841Model 12.4% · Market 10.6%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66nc4135dStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-7 | PassOver 13.5 +189Model 30.7% · Market 34.6%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -228Model 69.3% · Market 69.5%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66nc4135dStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-7 | PassUnder 6.5 +529Model 17.1% · Market 15.9%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -660Model 82.9% · Market 86.8%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66nc4135dStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-7 | PassOver 7.5 -404Model 74.8% · Market 80.2%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +331Model 25.2% · Market 23.2%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66nc4135dStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-7 | PassUnder 8.5 +240Model 31.2% · Market 29.4%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -290Model 68.8% · Market 74.4%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66nc4135dStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-7 | PassUnder 9.5 +146Model 40.2% · Market 40.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 -175Model 59.8% · Market 63.6%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66nc4135dStarts | TotalOpening line 14.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-7 | PassUnder 14.5 -306Model 74.3% · Market 75.4%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 14.5 +252Model 25.7% · Market 28.4%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n3091dbStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -112Model 49.7% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.5% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.1%-112 → +101Logit -0.123 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n3091dbStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSt. Louis Cardinals -137Model 58.3% · Market 57.8%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals -148Model 61.2% · Market 59.7%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.9%-137 → -148Logit 0.077 | 5 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n3091dbStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 9.5 +180Model 40.3% · Market 36.2%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 7.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -200Model 59.7% · Market 67.1%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+180 → -200 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n3091dbStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 74.2% · Market 80.2%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 25.8% · Market 23.2%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n3091dbStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 14.2% · Market 18.0%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 85.8% · Market 84.9%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n3091dbStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 76.4% · Market 74.4%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 8.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 23.6% · Market 29.4%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n3091dbStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 66.4% · Market 74.4%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 33.6% · Market 30.4%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n3091dbStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 9.3% · Market 12.7%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 90.7% · Market 89.7%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 10.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n3091dbStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 50.2% · Market 47.3%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -126Model 49.8% · Market 56.8%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -126 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n3091dbStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 69.0% · Market 66.6%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 7.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 31.0% · Market 37.6%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n481c45Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMinnesota Twins +109Model 48.9% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Yankees -126Model 57.4% · Market 55.8%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+109 → -126 | 5 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n481c45Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -116Model 50.4% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 50.1% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → -103 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n481c45Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-3 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 45.1% · Market 39.2%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 10.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 54.9% · Market 63.2%Edge -8.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n481c45Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-3 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 62.3% · Market 57.7%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 12.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 37.7% · Market 45.2%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n481c45Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-3 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 79.4% · Market 77.3%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 9.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 20.6% · Market 26.3%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n481c45Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-3 | PassUnder 6.5 +198Model 27.3% · Market 33.6%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -239Model 72.7% · Market 70.5%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 7.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n481c45Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-3 | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 30.1% · Market 25.3%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 69.9% · Market 78.3%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n481c45Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-3 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 75.3% · Market 82.1%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 24.7% · Market 21.1%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n481c45Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-3 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 92.1% · Market 92.5%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 7.9% · Market 10.6%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n481c45Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 12.1% · Market 14.8%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 87.9% · Market 87.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n481c45Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-3 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 38.3% · Market 33.6%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 7.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 61.7% · Market 70.5%Edge -8.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66na616caStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -121Model 52.1% · Market 54.8%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -116Model 51.9% · Market 53.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%-121 → -116Logit -0.042 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66na616caStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAtlanta Braves +114Model 46.7% · Market 46.7%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago Cubs -137Model 57.5% · Market 57.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -137 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66na616caStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassOver 12.5 +240Model 20.3% · Market 29.4%Edge -9.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -290Model 79.7% · Market 74.4%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 20.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66na616caStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassUnder 8.5 +114Model 50.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 7.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -161Model 49.8% · Market 61.7%Edge -11.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -161 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66na616caStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassUnder 11.5 -218Model 74.5% · Market 68.6%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 19.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +181Model 25.5% · Market 35.6%Edge -10.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66na616caStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassUnder 5.5 +425Model 23.8% · Market 19.0%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -525Model 76.2% · Market 84.0%Edge -7.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66na616caStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 7.5 -218Model 57.5% · Market 68.6%Edge -11.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +181Model 42.5% · Market 35.6%Edge +6.9% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66na616caStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassUnder 6.5 +296Model 31.3% · Market 25.3%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 8.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -360Model 68.7% · Market 78.3%Edge -9.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66na616caStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassUnder 13.5 -404Model 85.4% · Market 80.2%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 26.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +331Model 14.6% · Market 23.2%Edge -8.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66na616caStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassOver 10.5 +134Model 33.2% · Market 43.7%Edge -10.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -148Model 66.8% · Market 60.2%Edge +6.6% · Full Kelly 17.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66na616caStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 3.5 -2042Model 90.6% · Market 95.3%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1464Model 9.4% · Market 6.4%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-2042 → +1464 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66na616caStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 4.5 -1087Model 85.7% · Market 91.6%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +841Model 14.3% · Market 10.6%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n772fa5Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBaltimore Orioles +119Model 48.7% · Market 45.7%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBaltimore Orioles +124Model 45.5% · Market 44.6%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+119 → +124Logit -0.041 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n772fa5Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 48.2% · Market 50.7%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 48.8% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%-103 → +105Logit -0.078 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n772fa5Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-1 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 65.0% · Market 65.6%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 65.0% · Market 65.1%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%-191 → -183Logit -0.021 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n772fa5Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-1 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 83.0% · Market 85.9%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 17.0% · Market 16.9%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n772fa5Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-1 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 50.7% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 47.3% · Market 46.8%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.0%+101 → +119Logit -0.120 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n772fa5Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-1 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 21.3% · Market 24.2%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 78.7% · Market 79.2%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n772fa5Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-1 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 88.7% · Market 91.6%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 11.3% · Market 11.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n772fa5Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-1 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 72.5% · Market 76.3%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 27.5% · Market 27.3%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n772fa5Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-1 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 16.6% · Market 19.0%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 83.4% · Market 84.0%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n772fa5Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-1 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 71.5% · Market 71.5%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 28.5% · Market 32.5%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n772fa5Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-1 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 35.7% · Market 35.6%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 64.3% · Market 68.6%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n142f4aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassToronto Blue Jays -126Model 55.7% · Market 55.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers +119Model 44.6% · Market 45.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-126 → +119 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n142f4aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -116Model 50.1% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -103Model 50.0% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → -103 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n142f4aStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +373Model 16.0% · Market 21.1%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -458Model 84.0% · Market 82.1%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n142f4aStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-5 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 89.4% · Market 88.7%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 10.6% · Market 14.8%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n142f4aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassUnder 6.5 +152Model 34.1% · Market 40.2%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -168Model 65.9% · Market 63.2%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 8.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n142f4aStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-5 | PassOver 10.5 +266Model 30.2% · Market 27.3%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -322Model 69.8% · Market 76.3%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n142f4aStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -525Model 77.2% · Market 84.0%Edge -6.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +425Model 22.8% · Market 19.0%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n142f4aStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-5 | PassOver 5.5 -251Model 73.8% · Market 71.5%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 8.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +208Model 26.2% · Market 32.5%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n142f4aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassUnder 8.5 -148Model 53.3% · Market 60.2%Edge -6.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +134Model 46.7% · Market 43.2%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n142f4aStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassUnder 9.5 -239Model 63.3% · Market 70.5%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +198Model 36.7% · Market 33.6%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n084875Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago White Sox +105Model 46.5% · Market 48.8%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago White Sox +146Model 47.2% · Market 40.6%Edge +6.6% · Full Kelly 11.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -8.1%+105 → +146Logit -0.330 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n084875Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +109Model 48.8% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +109Model 49.4% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+109 → +109Logit 0.000 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n084875Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-3 | PassUnder 11.5 -660Model 83.3% · Market 86.8%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +529Model 16.7% · Market 15.9%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n084875Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-3 | PassUnder 3.5 +456Model 14.0% · Market 18.0%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -564Model 86.0% · Market 84.9%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 7.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n084875Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-3 | PassOver 4.5 -360Model 79.3% · Market 78.3%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +296Model 20.7% · Market 25.3%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n084875Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-3 | PassOver 7.5 +119Model 49.3% · Market 45.7%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +124Model 46.6% · Market 44.6%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+119 → +124Logit -0.041 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n084875Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -458Model 76.8% · Market 82.1%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +373Model 23.2% · Market 21.1%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n084875Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-3 | PassOver 5.5 -191Model 67.6% · Market 65.6%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +159Model 32.4% · Market 38.6%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +159 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n084875Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-3 | PassOver 8.5 +173Model 38.7% · Market 36.6%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -191Model 61.3% · Market 66.6%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n084875Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-3 | PassUnder 9.5 -322Model 70.8% · Market 76.3%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +266Model 29.2% · Market 27.3%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66ndc5b62Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds +146Model 45.7% · Market 40.6%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 8.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +181Model 36.8% · Market 35.6%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.1%+146 → +181Logit -0.215 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66ndc5b62Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.5% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -107Model 51.0% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -107 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66ndc5b62Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-1 | PassUnder 12.5 -660Model 76.1% · Market 86.8%Edge -10.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +529Model 23.9% · Market 15.9%Edge +8.0% · Full Kelly 9.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66ndc5b62Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-1 | PassOver 11.5 +398Model 29.3% · Market 20.1%Edge +9.2% · Full Kelly 11.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -489Model 70.7% · Market 83.0%Edge -12.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66ndc5b62Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-1 | PassOver 6.5 -175Model 71.9% · Market 63.6%Edge +8.3% · Full Kelly 22.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +146Model 28.1% · Market 40.7%Edge -12.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66ndc5b62Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-1 | PassOver 9.5 +197Model 44.1% · Market 34.1%Edge +10.0% · Full Kelly 15.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -219Model 55.9% · Market 69.1%Edge -13.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+197 → -219 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66ndc5b62Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-1 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 12.6% · Market 20.1%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -489Model 87.4% · Market 83.0%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 25.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66ndc5b62Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-1 | PassUnder 10.5 -322Model 62.6% · Market 76.3%Edge -13.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +266Model 37.4% · Market 27.3%Edge +10.1% · Full Kelly 13.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66ndc5b62Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-1 | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -142Model 46.0% · Market 59.2%Edge -13.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -142 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66ndc5b62Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-1 | PassOver 5.5 -251Model 78.7% · Market 71.5%Edge +7.2% · Full Kelly 25.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +208Model 21.3% · Market 32.5%Edge -11.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66ndc5b62Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-1 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 91.8% · Market 88.7%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 27.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 8.2% · Market 13.8%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n5977b4Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Francisco Giants +109Model 47.6% · Market 47.9%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Diego Padres -142Model 57.2% · Market 58.7%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+109 → -142 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n5977b4Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 +119Model 49.4% · Market 45.7%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -103Model 49.4% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +5.1%+119 → -103Logit 0.204 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n5977b4Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-4 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 12.7% · Market 13.8%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 87.3% · Market 88.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n5977b4Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-4 | PassOver 4.5 -489Model 81.1% · Market 83.0%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 18.9% · Market 20.1%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n5977b4Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-4 | PassOver 11.5 +425Model 19.1% · Market 19.0%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -525Model 80.9% · Market 84.0%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n5977b4Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-4 | PassUnder 8.5 -155Model 58.1% · Market 61.2%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +140Model 41.9% · Market 42.2%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-155 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n5977b4Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-4 | PassUnder 6.5 +101Model 49.0% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -155Model 61.5% · Market 61.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → -155 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n5977b4Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-4 | PassUnder 10.5 -340Model 74.1% · Market 77.3%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +280Model 25.9% · Market 26.3%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n5977b4Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-4 | PassUnder 9.5 -251Model 67.8% · Market 71.5%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +208Model 32.2% · Market 32.5%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n5977b4Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-4 | PassUnder 5.5 +198Model 30.0% · Market 33.6%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -239Model 70.0% · Market 70.5%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n6bfa0eStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassArizona Diamondbacks -142Model 55.7% · Market 58.7%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassArizona Diamondbacks -131Model 58.0% · Market 56.7%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%-142 → -131Logit -0.081 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n6bfa0eStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -112Model 49.5% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.7% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.1%-112 → +101Logit -0.123 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n6bfa0eStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 29.4% · Market 35.6%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 70.6% · Market 68.6%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n6bfa0eStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 9.5 +165Model 42.2% · Market 38.2%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 7.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 57.8% · Market 65.1%Edge -7.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+165 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n6bfa0eStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 86.8% · Market 86.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 13.2% · Market 16.9%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n6bfa0eStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 11.5 +280Model 27.5% · Market 26.3%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 72.5% · Market 77.3%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n6bfa0eStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-6 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 40.3% · Market 46.2%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 59.7% · Market 57.3%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 7.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -131 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n6bfa0eStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 91.4% · Market 91.6%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 8.6% · Market 10.6%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n6bfa0eStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 35.5% · Market 32.5%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 64.5% · Market 71.5%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n6bfa0eStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-6 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 77.9% · Market 83.0%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 22.1% · Market 20.1%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n6bfa0eStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 77.8% · Market 76.3%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 22.2% · Market 28.4%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n071f92Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +124Model 50.5% · Market 44.6%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 10.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +109Model 46.2% · Market 47.9%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.2%+124 → +109Logit 0.129 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n071f92Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-8 | PassOver 8.5 -131Model 49.6% · Market 57.3%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +114Model 50.6% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 7.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +114 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n071f92Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-8 | PassUnder 9.5 -116Model 52.2% · Market 53.7%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +119Model 39.6% · Market 46.2%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → +119 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n071f92Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-8 | PassUnder 10.5 -175Model 67.0% · Market 64.2%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 9.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +158Model 33.0% · Market 39.2%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n071f92Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-8 | PassUnder 4.5 +685Model 14.5% · Market 12.7%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -869Model 85.5% · Market 89.7%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n071f92Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-8 | PassOver 13.5 +373Model 14.5% · Market 21.1%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -458Model 85.5% · Market 82.1%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 19.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n071f92Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-8 | PassUnder 7.5 +159Model 42.7% · Market 38.6%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -191Model 57.3% · Market 65.6%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+159 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n071f92Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-8 | PassOver 11.5 +208Model 25.2% · Market 32.5%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -251Model 74.8% · Market 71.5%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 11.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n071f92Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-8 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 9.6% · Market 8.5%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 90.4% · Market 93.5%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1074 → -1428 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n071f92Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-8 | PassOver 5.5 -458Model 75.9% · Market 82.1%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +351Model 24.1% · Market 22.2%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n071f92Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-8 | PassUnder 12.5 -340Model 79.9% · Market 77.3%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 11.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +280Model 20.1% · Market 26.3%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n071f92Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-8 | PassUnder 6.5 +252Model 31.6% · Market 28.4%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -306Model 68.4% · Market 75.4%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66ndbd366Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-4 | PassOver 8.5 +140Model 49.2% · Market 42.7%Edge +6.5% · Full Kelly 12.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -155Model 50.8% · Market 61.2%Edge -10.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -155 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66ndbd366Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-4 | PassUnder 10.5 -340Model 67.4% · Market 77.3%Edge -9.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +280Model 32.6% · Market 26.3%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66ndbd366Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-4 | PassOver 4.5 -458Model 85.3% · Market 82.1%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 18.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +351Model 14.7% · Market 22.2%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66ndbd366Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-4 | PassUnder 6.5 +140Model 31.9% · Market 41.7%Edge -9.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -155Model 68.1% · Market 61.7%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 18.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -155 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66ndbd366Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-4 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 90.4% · Market 88.7%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 14.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 9.6% · Market 13.8%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66ndbd366Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-4 | PassOver 9.5 +208Model 39.2% · Market 32.5%Edge +6.8% · Full Kelly 10.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -251Model 60.8% · Market 71.5%Edge -10.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66ndbd366Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-4 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 75.1% · Market 84.9%Edge -9.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +425Model 24.9% · Market 19.0%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 7.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66ndbd366Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-4 | PassOver 5.5 -251Model 75.7% · Market 71.5%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 14.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +198Model 24.3% · Market 33.6%Edge -9.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n30dfc6Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Pending4-3 | PassOver 6.5 -116Model 52.2% · Market 53.7%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +119Model 47.8% · Market 45.7%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → +119 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n30dfc6Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassPittsburgh Pirates +114Model 44.7% · Market 46.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassPittsburgh Pirates +140Model 41.3% · Market 41.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.1%+114 → +140Logit -0.205 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n30dfc6Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Pending4-3 | PassOver 7.5 +124Model 50.6% · Market 44.6%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 10.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +124Model 50.6% · Market 44.6%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 10.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+124 → +124Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n30dfc6Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassUnder 8.5 -199Model 48.5% · Market 66.6%Edge -18.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +166Model 51.5% · Market 37.6%Edge +13.9% · Full Kelly 22.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n30dfc6Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassOver 5.5 -200Model 77.3% · Market 67.1%Edge +10.2% · Full Kelly 32.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +180Model 22.7% · Market 36.2%Edge -13.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n30dfc6Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassOver 4.5 -381Model 86.5% · Market 79.2%Edge +7.3% · Full Kelly 35.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +313Model 13.5% · Market 24.2%Edge -10.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n30dfc6Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassOver 10.5 +351Model 34.9% · Market 22.2%Edge +12.7% · Full Kelly 16.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -430Model 65.1% · Market 81.1%Edge -16.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n30dfc6Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassUnder 9.5 -306Model 58.4% · Market 75.4%Edge -16.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +252Model 41.6% · Market 28.4%Edge +13.1% · Full Kelly 18.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n30dfc6Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassOver 3.5 -609Model 91.2% · Market 85.9%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 37.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +490Model 8.8% · Market 16.9%Edge -8.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n67ac8bStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +101Model 49.2% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals -103Model 50.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+101 → -103Logit 0.040 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n67ac8bStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 48.9% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +101Model 50.7% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → +101 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n67ac8bStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -218Model 68.1% · Market 68.6%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +181Model 31.9% · Market 35.6%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n67ac8bStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassOver 6.5 -263Model 67.5% · Market 72.5%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +218Model 32.5% · Market 31.4%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n67ac8bStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 15.1% · Market 14.8%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 84.9% · Market 87.8%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n67ac8bStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 75.2% · Market 79.2%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +313Model 24.8% · Market 24.2%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n67ac8bStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.1% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +140Model 43.8% · Market 42.2%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -6.6%+105 → +140Logit -0.266 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n67ac8bStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-3 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 90.1% · Market 91.6%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 9.9% · Market 10.6%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n67ac8bStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-3 | PassUnder 11.5 -322Model 75.7% · Market 76.3%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 24.3% · Market 28.4%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n67ac8bStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassOver 12.5 +331Model 19.3% · Market 23.2%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -430Model 80.7% · Market 81.1%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n67ac8bStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-3 | PassUnder 9.5 -161Model 61.5% · Market 61.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +146Model 38.5% · Market 41.7%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nd5b0dbStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCleveland Guardians +101Model 52.1% · Market 49.8%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCleveland Guardians +105Model 48.2% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+101 → +105Logit -0.039 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nd5b0dbStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.4% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.4% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+101 → +105Logit -0.039 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nd5b0dbStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-2 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 77.0% · Market 73.4%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 13.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 23.0% · Market 30.4%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nd5b0dbStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-2 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 34.4% · Market 29.4%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 7.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 65.6% · Market 74.4%Edge -8.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nd5b0dbStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-2 | PassOver 9.5 +188Model 41.1% · Market 35.2%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 9.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -209Model 58.9% · Market 68.1%Edge -9.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+188 → -209 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nd5b0dbStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 9.0% · Market 12.7%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 91.0% · Market 89.7%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 12.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nd5b0dbStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-2 | PassOver 8.5 +124Model 51.1% · Market 45.2%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 11.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -137Model 48.9% · Market 58.2%Edge -9.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -137 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nd5b0dbStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 30.3% · Market 37.6%Edge -7.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 69.7% · Market 66.6%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 9.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nd5b0dbStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 73.5% · Market 80.2%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 26.5% · Market 23.2%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nd5b0dbStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-2 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 86.2% · Market 84.9%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 13.8% · Market 19.0%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nd9e2b0Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMilwaukee Brewers -148Model 58.9% · Market 59.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +159Model 42.8% · Market 38.6%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +159 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nd9e2b0Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.0% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 49.2% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+105 → +109Logit -0.037 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nd9e2b0Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 35.8% · Market 31.4%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 64.2% · Market 73.4%Edge -9.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nd9e2b0Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 91.5% · Market 90.6%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 9.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 8.5% · Market 11.7%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nd9e2b0Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 13.1% · Market 18.0%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 86.9% · Market 85.9%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 7.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nd9e2b0Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 27.8% · Market 24.2%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 72.2% · Market 80.2%Edge -7.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nd9e2b0Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 22.0% · Market 28.4%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 78.0% · Market 75.4%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 10.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nd9e2b0Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 42.5% · Market 37.1%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 9.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 57.5% · Market 66.1%Edge -8.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nd9e2b0Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 77.6% · Market 84.0%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 22.4% · Market 20.1%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nd9e2b0Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 70.8% · Market 67.5%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 10.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 29.2% · Market 36.6%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nd9e2b0Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 48.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -126Model 47.5% · Market 56.2%Edge -8.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -126 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n2ba924Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassHouston Astros +134Model 42.9% · Market 42.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTampa Bay Rays -131Model 58.6% · Market 56.7%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -131 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n2ba924Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.5% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 50.0% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%-103 → +101Logit -0.040 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n2ba924Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-14 | PassUnder 8.5 -137Model 53.5% · Market 58.2%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +124Model 46.5% · Market 45.7%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n2ba924Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-14 | PassUnder 9.5 -200Model 63.4% · Market 67.6%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +181Model 36.6% · Market 35.7%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n2ba924Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-14 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 82.2% · Market 85.9%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 17.8% · Market 16.9%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n2ba924Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-14 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 10.6% · Market 12.7%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 89.4% · Market 90.6%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n2ba924Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-14 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 34.2% · Market 36.6%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 65.8% · Market 67.5%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n2ba924Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-14 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 77.4% · Market 80.2%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 22.6% · Market 23.2%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n2ba924Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-14 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 16.1% · Market 18.0%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 83.9% · Market 84.9%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n2ba924Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-14 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 73.7% · Market 74.4%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 26.3% · Market 29.4%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n2ba924Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-14 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 69.9% · Market 74.4%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 30.1% · Market 29.4%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nf9e2fcStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 48.8% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.1% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%-103 → +101Logit -0.040 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nf9e2fcStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMiami Marlins +114Model 48.9% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Dodgers -137Model 55.6% · Market 57.8%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -137 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nf9e2fcStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 16.7% · Market 16.9%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 83.3% · Market 86.8%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nf9e2fcStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 78.1% · Market 79.2%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 21.9% · Market 25.3%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nf9e2fcStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 27.1% · Market 26.3%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 72.9% · Market 77.3%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nf9e2fcStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 88.9% · Market 91.6%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 11.1% · Market 11.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nf9e2fcStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 64.8% · Market 69.5%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 35.2% · Market 34.6%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nf9e2fcStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 17.1% · Market 21.1%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 82.9% · Market 82.1%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nf9e2fcStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 64.3% · Market 64.2%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 35.7% · Market 39.2%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nf9e2fcStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 29.2% · Market 33.6%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 70.8% · Market 71.5%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nf9e2fcStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassOver 7.5 -142Model 53.4% · Market 58.7%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +129Model 46.6% · Market 44.7%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +129 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n94784bStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBaltimore Orioles +114Model 43.8% · Market 46.7%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassToronto Blue Jays -154Model 59.5% · Market 60.6%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -154 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n94784bStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 +101Model 49.7% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +101Model 49.8% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+101 → +101Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n94784bStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-8 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 78.8% · Market 84.9%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 21.2% · Market 18.0%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n94784bStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-8 | PassUnder 6.5 +134Model 35.8% · Market 43.2%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -148Model 64.2% · Market 60.2%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 11.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n94784bStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-8 | PassUnder 8.5 -161Model 55.3% · Market 62.7%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +146Model 44.7% · Market 40.7%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 6.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n94784bStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-8 | PassUnder 4.5 +331Model 17.1% · Market 23.2%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -430Model 82.9% · Market 81.1%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 9.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n94784bStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-8 | PassOver 10.5 +280Model 28.4% · Market 26.3%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -340Model 71.6% · Market 77.3%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n94784bStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-8 | PassUnder 5.5 +189Model 27.6% · Market 34.6%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -228Model 72.4% · Market 69.5%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 9.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n94784bStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-8 | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 88.7% · Market 86.8%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 13.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 11.3% · Market 15.9%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n94784bStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-8 | PassUnder 9.5 -276Model 65.1% · Market 73.4%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +229Model 34.9% · Market 30.4%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n6b8417Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Yankees -168Model 60.8% · Market 62.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Mets +152Model 38.9% · Market 39.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n6b8417Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -116Model 50.2% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.4% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%-116 → +101Logit -0.158 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n6b8417Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 6.5 -191Model 69.7% · Market 66.1%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 11.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 30.3% · Market 36.6%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n6b8417Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 8.5 +119Model 51.1% · Market 46.2%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 10.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -131Model 48.9% · Market 57.3%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -131 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n6b8417Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 65.6% · Market 74.4%Edge -8.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 34.4% · Market 30.4%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n6b8417Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 86.3% · Market 84.0%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 14.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 13.7% · Market 19.0%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n6b8417Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -208Model 58.9% · Market 67.5%Edge -8.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 41.1% · Market 36.6%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 7.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n6b8417Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 26.6% · Market 22.2%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 73.4% · Market 81.1%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n6b8417Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 9.0% · Market 12.7%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 91.0% · Market 90.6%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n6b8417Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 77.1% · Market 74.4%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 10.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 22.9% · Market 29.4%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n7dad85Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals -116Model 56.7% · Market 53.7%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals -137Model 56.4% · Market 57.8%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +4.1%-116 → -137Logit 0.167 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n7dad85Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +105Model 48.6% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 -103Model 49.1% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.0%+105 → -103Logit 0.078 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n7dad85Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 3.5 -1684Model 92.8% · Market 94.4%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 7.2% · Market 8.5%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1684 → +1074 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n7dad85Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 5.5 -489Model 80.8% · Market 83.0%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +398Model 19.2% · Market 20.1%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n7dad85Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassUnder 13.5 -458Model 80.5% · Market 82.1%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +373Model 19.5% · Market 21.1%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n7dad85Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassOver 11.5 +198Model 31.8% · Market 33.6%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -239Model 68.2% · Market 70.5%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n7dad85Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +756Model 11.1% · Market 11.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -967Model 88.9% · Market 90.6%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n7dad85Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassUnder 12.5 -322Model 73.8% · Market 76.3%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +266Model 26.2% · Market 27.3%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n7dad85Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.1% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +134Model 43.2% · Market 43.2%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.6%+105 → +134Logit -0.225 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n7dad85Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 10.5 +134Model 40.2% · Market 42.7%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -161Model 59.8% · Market 61.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n7dad85Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 7.5 -200Model 64.1% · Market 67.6%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +180Model 35.9% · Market 36.2%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n7dad85Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +280Model 25.7% · Market 26.3%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -340Model 74.3% · Market 77.3%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66ncad012Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAtlanta Braves -121Model 52.6% · Market 54.8%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassPhiladelphia Phillies +109Model 45.6% · Market 47.9%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-121 → +109 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66ncad012Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +114Model 47.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +101Model 48.2% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.0%+114 → +101Logit 0.121 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66ncad012Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-4 | PassOver 10.5 +146Model 33.8% · Market 41.2%Edge -7.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -161Model 66.5% · Market 61.7%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 12.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66ncad012Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-4 | PassUnder 3.5 +1241Model 9.2% · Market 7.5%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1684Model 90.8% · Market 94.4%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1241 → -1684 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66ncad012Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-4 | PassOver 6.5 -340Model 69.2% · Market 77.3%Edge -8.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +280Model 30.8% · Market 26.3%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66ncad012Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-4 | PassUnder 8.5 +101Model 50.9% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -148Model 50.5% · Market 59.7%Edge -9.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → -148 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66ncad012Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-4 | PassUnder 13.5 -458Model 85.0% · Market 82.1%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 16.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +373Model 15.0% · Market 21.1%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66ncad012Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-4 | PassOver 5.5 -489Model 76.6% · Market 83.0%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +398Model 23.4% · Market 20.1%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66ncad012Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-4 | PassUnder 7.5 +173Model 41.8% · Market 36.6%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 8.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -208Model 58.2% · Market 67.5%Edge -9.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66ncad012Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-4 | PassOver 11.5 +198Model 26.0% · Market 33.6%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -239Model 74.0% · Market 70.5%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 11.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66ncad012Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-4 | PassOver 12.5 +266Model 20.8% · Market 27.3%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -322Model 79.2% · Market 76.3%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 12.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66ncad012Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-4 | PassUnder 4.5 +756Model 14.1% · Market 11.7%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -967Model 85.9% · Market 90.6%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66ndbd366Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -116Model 50.6% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -103Model 50.4% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.0%-116 → -103Logit -0.119 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66ndbd366Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBoston Red Sox -154Model 60.4% · Market 60.6%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassKansas City Royals +152Model 39.6% · Market 39.7%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-154 → +152 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb3d5bfStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers -148Model 59.8% · Market 59.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers -183Model 66.0% · Market 64.7%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +5.0%-148 → -183Logit 0.212 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb3d5bfStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 50.8% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +114Model 50.4% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 6.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.0%-107 → +114Logit -0.199 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb3d5bfStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-8 | PassOver 4.5 -869Model 86.4% · Market 89.7%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +625Model 13.6% · Market 13.8%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb3d5bfStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-8 | PassUnder 7.5 +152Model 41.0% · Market 40.2%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -168Model 59.0% · Market 63.2%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb3d5bfStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-8 | PassUnder 12.5 -381Model 78.4% · Market 79.2%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +313Model 21.6% · Market 24.2%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb3d5bfStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-8 | PassOver 5.5 -430Model 77.2% · Market 81.1%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +351Model 22.8% · Market 22.2%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb3d5bfStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-8 | PassOver 11.5 +266Model 26.9% · Market 27.3%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -322Model 73.1% · Market 76.3%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb3d5bfStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-8 | PassOver 9.5 +124Model 41.4% · Market 45.2%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -137Model 58.6% · Market 58.2%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -137 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb3d5bfStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-8 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 91.1% · Market 93.5%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 8.9% · Market 9.6%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1428 → +945 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb3d5bfStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-8 | PassUnder 6.5 +240Model 30.1% · Market 29.4%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -306Model 69.9% · Market 75.4%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb3d5bfStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-8 | PassUnder 10.5 -191Model 65.2% · Market 65.6%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +159Model 34.8% · Market 38.6%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +159 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n3103c0Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +129Model 48.9% · Market 43.7%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 9.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +129Model 45.2% · Market 43.7%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+129 → +129Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n3103c0Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -112Model 52.2% · Market 52.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -116Model 51.6% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%-112 → -116Logit 0.035 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n3103c0Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won19-1 | PassUnder 12.5 -290Model 78.3% · Market 74.4%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 15.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +240Model 21.7% · Market 29.4%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n3103c0Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won19-1 | PassUnder 10.5 -148Model 65.2% · Market 60.2%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 13.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +134Model 34.8% · Market 43.2%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n3103c0Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won19-1 | PassUnder 5.5 +425Model 22.8% · Market 19.0%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -525Model 77.2% · Market 84.0%Edge -6.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n3103c0Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost19-1 | PassOver 7.5 -218Model 59.1% · Market 68.6%Edge -9.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +181Model 40.9% · Market 35.6%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 8.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n3103c0Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won19-1 | PassUnder 6.5 +296Model 30.0% · Market 25.3%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -360Model 70.0% · Market 78.3%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n3103c0Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won19-1 | PassUnder 4.5 +841Model 13.6% · Market 10.6%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -1087Model 86.4% · Market 91.6%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n3103c0Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost19-1 | PassOver 8.5 -155Model 51.5% · Market 61.2%Edge -9.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +140Model 48.5% · Market 42.2%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 11.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-155 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n3103c0Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost19-1 | PassOver 11.5 +189Model 26.9% · Market 34.6%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -228Model 73.1% · Market 69.5%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 11.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n3103c0Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won19-1 | PassUnder 13.5 -404Model 84.3% · Market 80.2%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 20.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +331Model 15.7% · Market 23.2%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n3103c0Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost19-1 | PassOver 3.5 -1684Model 91.1% · Market 94.4%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1241Model 8.9% · Market 7.5%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1684 → +1241 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n3c8604Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassArizona Diamondbacks -121Model 55.7% · Market 54.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassArizona Diamondbacks -131Model 59.5% · Market 56.7%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.0%-121 → -131Logit 0.079 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n3c8604Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -116Model 50.6% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.4% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → +105 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n3c8604Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassOver 9.5 +152Model 39.4% · Market 39.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 39.4% · Market 39.2%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%+152 → +158Logit -0.019 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n3c8604Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 80.1% · Market 82.1%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 19.9% · Market 21.1%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n3c8604Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 42.9% · Market 45.2%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 57.1% · Market 58.2%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -137 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n3c8604Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 90.4% · Market 91.6%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 9.6% · Market 10.6%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n3c8604Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 31.8% · Market 34.6%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 68.2% · Market 69.5%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n3c8604Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 24.2% · Market 26.3%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 75.8% · Market 77.3%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n3c8604Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassOver 10.5 +189Model 32.7% · Market 34.6%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -228Model 67.3% · Market 69.5%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n3c8604Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 75.0% · Market 75.4%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 25.0% · Market 28.4%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n3c8604Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 14.6% · Market 15.9%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 85.4% · Market 86.8%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n50cbd8Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAtlanta Braves -107Model 50.6% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassPhiladelphia Phillies +119Model 47.7% · Market 45.7%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → +119 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n50cbd8Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 48.7% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.2% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.0%+105 → -103Logit 0.078 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n50cbd8Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-12 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 10.2% · Market 10.6%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 89.8% · Market 91.6%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n50cbd8Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-12 | PassOver 9.5 +159Model 37.9% · Market 38.6%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 62.1% · Market 65.6%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+159 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n50cbd8Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-12 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 23.8% · Market 24.2%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 76.2% · Market 79.2%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n50cbd8Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-12 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 15.4% · Market 16.9%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 84.6% · Market 85.9%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n50cbd8Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-12 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 74.7% · Market 76.3%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 25.3% · Market 27.3%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n50cbd8Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-12 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 31.3% · Market 32.5%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 68.7% · Market 71.5%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n50cbd8Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-12 | PassOver 7.5 -116Model 49.4% · Market 53.7%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 44.3% · Market 45.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → +124 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n50cbd8Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-12 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 33.0% · Market 34.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -209Model 67.0% · Market 68.6%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -209 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9158aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 48.7% · Market 51.7%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 51.1% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -112 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9158aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSt. Louis Cardinals -112Model 51.3% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals -107Model 50.7% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%-112 → -107Logit -0.046 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9158aStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 71.0% · Market 70.5%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 29.0% · Market 33.6%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9158aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-5 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 64.8% · Market 69.5%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 35.2% · Market 34.6%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9158aStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 78.3% · Market 78.3%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +280Model 21.7% · Market 26.3%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9158aStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 17.0% · Market 21.1%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 83.0% · Market 82.1%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9158aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 46.8% · Market 45.2%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 53.2% · Market 58.2%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -137 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9158aStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 16.7% · Market 16.9%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 83.3% · Market 86.8%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9158aStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 11.1% · Market 11.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 88.9% · Market 91.6%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9158aStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 64.5% · Market 63.7%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +152Model 35.5% · Market 39.7%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9158aStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 27.1% · Market 26.3%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 72.9% · Market 77.3%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n419074Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds +140Model 40.9% · Market 41.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +181Model 33.9% · Market 35.6%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -6.1%+140 → +181Logit -0.257 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n419074Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -112Model 49.3% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.3% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → +105 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n419074Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-13 | PassOver 9.5 +134Model 41.5% · Market 43.2%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -148Model 58.5% · Market 59.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n419074Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-13 | PassUnder 7.5 +146Model 41.0% · Market 41.2%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -168Model 59.0% · Market 62.7%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n419074Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-13 | PassOver 6.5 -263Model 70.0% · Market 72.5%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +218Model 30.0% · Market 31.4%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n419074Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-13 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 27.0% · Market 28.4%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 73.0% · Market 75.4%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n419074Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-13 | PassOver 4.5 -788Model 86.4% · Market 88.7%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 13.6% · Market 14.8%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n419074Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-13 | PassOver 12.5 +331Model 21.7% · Market 23.2%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -404Model 78.3% · Market 80.2%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n419074Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-13 | PassUnder 5.5 +313Model 22.7% · Market 24.2%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -404Model 77.3% · Market 80.2%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n419074Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-13 | PassUnder 10.5 -208Model 65.1% · Market 67.5%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 34.9% · Market 36.6%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n419074Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-13 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 91.1% · Market 93.5%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 8.9% · Market 9.6%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1428 → +945 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n3fe27aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassHouston Astros +124Model 42.6% · Market 44.6%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTampa Bay Rays -148Model 58.7% · Market 59.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -148 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n3fe27aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.1% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-103 → -103Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n3fe27aStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 9.5 -209Model 64.5% · Market 68.6%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +197Model 35.5% · Market 34.1%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-209 → +197 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n3fe27aStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 83.3% · Market 84.0%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 16.7% · Market 19.0%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n3fe27aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 6.5 -191Model 64.8% · Market 65.6%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +159Model 35.2% · Market 38.6%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +159 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n3fe27aStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 78.3% · Market 81.1%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 21.7% · Market 22.2%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n3fe27aStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 17.0% · Market 16.9%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 83.0% · Market 85.9%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n3fe27aStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 72.9% · Market 73.4%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 27.1% · Market 30.4%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n3fe27aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 48.4% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -137Model 54.7% · Market 58.7%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+109 → -137 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n3fe27aStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 11.1% · Market 13.8%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 88.9% · Market 89.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n3fe27aStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 29.0% · Market 29.4%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 71.0% · Market 74.4%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n146e0eStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMinnesota Twins -107Model 48.6% · Market 51.7%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCleveland Guardians -107Model 52.7% · Market 51.7%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -107 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n146e0eStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 50.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.6% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → +101 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n146e0eStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 41.6% · Market 45.7%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 58.4% · Market 57.8%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -137 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n146e0eStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 73.8% · Market 75.4%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 26.2% · Market 28.4%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n146e0eStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 30.6% · Market 35.6%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 69.4% · Market 68.6%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n146e0eStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 86.0% · Market 86.8%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 14.0% · Market 16.9%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n146e0eStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 90.9% · Market 91.6%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 9.1% · Market 11.7%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n146e0eStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 23.3% · Market 28.4%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 76.7% · Market 75.4%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n146e0eStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 9.5 +152Model 40.8% · Market 39.7%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 59.2% · Market 63.7%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n146e0eStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 21.0% · Market 21.1%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 79.0% · Market 82.1%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n146e0eStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 65.9% · Market 71.5%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 34.1% · Market 32.5%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n644470Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -112Model 50.4% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%-112 → +105Logit -0.162 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n644470Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMiami Marlins +189Model 48.8% · Market 34.6%Edge +14.2% · Full Kelly 21.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins +140Model 43.9% · Market 41.7%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +7.1%+189 → +140Logit 0.300 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n644470Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 8.5 -131Model 55.2% · Market 57.3%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +119Model 44.8% · Market 46.2%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +119 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n644470Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 9.5 +180Model 35.0% · Market 36.2%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -200Model 65.0% · Market 67.1%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+180 → -200 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n644470Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 88.6% · Market 90.6%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 11.4% · Market 12.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n644470Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 82.8% · Market 85.9%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 17.2% · Market 18.0%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n644470Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 72.3% · Market 75.4%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 27.7% · Market 28.4%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n644470Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 71.5% · Market 73.4%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 28.5% · Market 30.4%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n644470Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 21.3% · Market 24.2%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 78.7% · Market 79.2%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n644470Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 35.8% · Market 37.6%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 64.2% · Market 67.5%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n644470Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 83.3% · Market 84.0%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 16.7% · Market 19.0%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nc99389Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBoston Red Sox -183Model 63.3% · Market 64.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassKansas City Royals +181Model 35.3% · Market 35.6%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +181 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nc99389Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.8% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 49.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -103 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nc99389Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-5 | PassUnder 9.5 -155Model 54.9% · Market 61.2%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +140Model 45.1% · Market 42.2%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-155 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nc99389Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-5 | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 79.7% · Market 79.2%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +296Model 20.3% · Market 25.3%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nc99389Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-5 | PassOver 6.5 -263Model 72.9% · Market 72.5%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +208Model 27.1% · Market 32.5%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nc99389Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-5 | PassUnder 10.5 -218Model 61.7% · Market 68.6%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +181Model 38.3% · Market 35.6%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nc99389Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 11.9% · Market 14.8%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -788Model 88.1% · Market 88.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nc99389Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-5 | PassOver 12.5 +351Model 24.6% · Market 22.2%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -430Model 75.4% · Market 81.1%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nc99389Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -322Model 69.9% · Market 76.3%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +266Model 30.1% · Market 27.3%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nc99389Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-5 | PassOver 7.5 -148Model 62.4% · Market 60.2%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +134Model 37.6% · Market 43.2%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nc99389Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-5 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 92.3% · Market 91.6%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 8.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 7.7% · Market 10.6%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n260312Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Francisco Giants +119Model 46.8% · Market 45.7%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants +152Model 43.7% · Market 39.7%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -6.0%+119 → +152Logit -0.245 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n260312Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.9% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 49.8% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+105 → +109Logit -0.037 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n260312Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 74.8% · Market 75.4%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 25.2% · Market 28.4%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n260312Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -199Model 61.8% · Market 66.6%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +180Model 38.2% · Market 36.7%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n260312Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 32.9% · Market 36.6%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 67.1% · Market 67.5%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n260312Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 76.0% · Market 81.1%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 24.0% · Market 22.2%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n260312Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 15.3% · Market 18.0%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 84.7% · Market 85.9%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n260312Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-6 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.1% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 48.1% · Market 47.3%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.6%+109 → +114Logit -0.023 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n260312Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 19.0% · Market 19.0%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 81.0% · Market 84.0%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n260312Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 31.6% · Market 30.4%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 68.4% · Market 74.4%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n260312Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 89.9% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 10.1% · Market 12.7%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nff08a5Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals -131Model 57.4% · Market 56.7%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals -131Model 55.5% · Market 56.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-131 → -131Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nff08a5Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.8% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 49.7% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -103 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nff08a5Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 7.5 +114Model 49.2% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -142Model 63.8% · Market 58.7%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 12.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -142 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nff08a5Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 31.6% · Market 24.2%Edge +7.4% · Full Kelly 9.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 68.4% · Market 79.2%Edge -10.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nff08a5Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 88.8% · Market 86.8%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 14.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 11.2% · Market 16.9%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nff08a5Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 19.3% · Market 27.3%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 80.7% · Market 76.3%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 18.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nff08a5Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 60.1% · Market 72.5%Edge -12.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 39.9% · Market 31.4%Edge +8.5% · Full Kelly 12.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nff08a5Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 92.8% · Market 91.6%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 14.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 7.2% · Market 11.7%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nff08a5Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 25.9% · Market 19.0%Edge +6.9% · Full Kelly 8.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 74.1% · Market 84.0%Edge -9.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nff08a5Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 74.1% · Market 68.6%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 17.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 25.9% · Market 35.6%Edge -9.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nff08a5Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 53.3% · Market 65.1%Edge -11.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +165Model 46.7% · Market 38.2%Edge +8.5% · Full Kelly 14.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n6917c9Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBaltimore Orioles +119Model 46.1% · Market 45.7%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassToronto Blue Jays -131Model 57.2% · Market 56.7%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -131 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n6917c9Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.0% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.1% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%-103 → +105Logit -0.078 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n6917c9Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 76.9% · Market 79.2%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 23.1% · Market 24.2%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n6917c9Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 66.3% · Market 69.5%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 33.7% · Market 34.6%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n6917c9Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 84.2% · Market 86.8%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 15.8% · Market 16.9%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n6917c9Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 81.8% · Market 83.0%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 18.2% · Market 20.1%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n6917c9Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 89.6% · Market 90.6%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 10.4% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n6917c9Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 30.6% · Market 32.5%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 69.4% · Market 71.5%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n6917c9Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.0% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 45.2% · Market 46.2%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.5%-103 → +119Logit -0.182 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n6917c9Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 74.1% · Market 76.3%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 25.9% · Market 27.3%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n6917c9Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 62.9% · Market 64.6%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 37.1% · Market 39.2%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n3580aeStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago Cubs -116Model 53.2% · Market 53.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago Cubs -126Model 55.4% · Market 55.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.0%-116 → -126Logit 0.083 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n3580aeStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +114Model 48.3% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -107Model 51.2% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -107 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n3580aeStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassUnder 8.5 +101Model 50.5% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +140Model 45.6% · Market 41.7%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -8.1%+101 → +140Logit -0.326 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n3580aeStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 92.1% · Market 93.5%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 7.9% · Market 8.5%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1428 → +1074 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n3580aeStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 12.5 +218Model 24.0% · Market 31.4%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -263Model 76.0% · Market 72.5%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 12.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n3580aeStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 4.5 -1087Model 87.8% · Market 91.6%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +841Model 12.2% · Market 10.6%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n3580aeStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 11.5 -208Model 70.5% · Market 67.5%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 9.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +173Model 29.5% · Market 36.6%Edge -7.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n3580aeStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 7.5 -228Model 61.8% · Market 69.5%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +189Model 38.2% · Market 34.6%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n3580aeStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassUnder 5.5 +425Model 20.7% · Market 19.0%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -564Model 79.3% · Market 84.9%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n3580aeStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 13.5 +313Model 17.7% · Market 24.2%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -381Model 82.3% · Market 79.2%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 15.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n3580aeStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 6.5 -381Model 72.4% · Market 79.2%Edge -6.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +296Model 27.6% · Market 25.3%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n3580aeStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 10.5 +129Model 37.7% · Market 44.2%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -142Model 62.3% · Market 59.2%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 8.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n54c2e0Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.0% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.7% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%-103 → +105Logit -0.078 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n54c2e0Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Mets +146Model 39.5% · Market 40.6%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Yankees -161Model 61.1% · Market 61.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n54c2e0Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won12-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 58.1% · Market 65.6%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +165Model 41.9% · Market 38.2%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n54c2e0Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won12-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 64.8% · Market 72.5%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 35.2% · Market 31.4%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n54c2e0Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost12-2 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 70.3% · Market 68.6%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 5.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 29.7% · Market 35.6%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n54c2e0Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won12-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 72.8% · Market 79.2%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 27.2% · Market 24.2%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n54c2e0Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost12-2 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 50.0% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 40.5% · Market 46.2%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.7%+109 → +119Logit -0.066 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n54c2e0Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won12-2 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 78.1% · Market 84.0%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 21.9% · Market 19.0%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n54c2e0Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost12-2 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 77.6% · Market 77.3%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 22.4% · Market 26.3%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n54c2e0Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won12-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 13.4% · Market 16.9%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 86.6% · Market 86.8%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n54c2e0Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost12-2 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 91.3% · Market 91.6%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 8.7% · Market 11.7%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n685448Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers -142Model 59.6% · Market 58.7%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers -161Model 62.4% · Market 61.7%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.0%-142 → -161Logit 0.126 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n685448Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 50.8% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.5% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → -103 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n685448Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-11 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 9.1% · Market 10.6%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 90.9% · Market 92.5%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1236 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n685448Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-11 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 13.9% · Market 16.9%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 86.1% · Market 85.9%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n685448Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-11 | PassUnder 9.5 -161Model 59.3% · Market 62.7%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +146Model 40.7% · Market 40.7%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n685448Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-11 | PassUnder 10.5 -228Model 66.0% · Market 69.5%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +189Model 34.0% · Market 34.6%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n685448Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-11 | PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 73.8% · Market 78.3%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 26.2% · Market 25.3%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n685448Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-11 | PassUnder 7.5 +129Model 41.7% · Market 44.2%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -142Model 58.3% · Market 59.2%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n685448Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-11 | PassUnder 6.5 +198Model 30.7% · Market 33.6%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -239Model 69.3% · Market 70.5%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n685448Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-11 | PassUnder 12.5 -430Model 79.0% · Market 81.1%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +351Model 21.0% · Market 22.2%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n685448Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-11 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 23.3% · Market 26.3%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 76.7% · Market 77.3%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nc60224Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.0% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.0% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+105 → +105Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nc60224Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Francisco Giants +114Model 47.2% · Market 46.7%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants +129Model 44.8% · Market 43.7%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.1%+114 → +129Logit -0.124 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nc60224Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-5 | PassUnder 8.5 -137Model 53.7% · Market 58.2%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +124Model 46.3% · Market 44.6%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nc60224Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-5 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 83.8% · Market 84.9%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 16.2% · Market 20.1%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nc60224Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-5 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 70.1% · Market 75.4%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 29.9% · Market 28.4%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nc60224Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-5 | PassOver 6.5 -191Model 65.6% · Market 66.1%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 34.4% · Market 37.1%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nc60224Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-5 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 22.5% · Market 23.2%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 77.5% · Market 80.2%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nc60224Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-5 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 10.8% · Market 12.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 89.2% · Market 90.6%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nc60224Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-5 | PassOver 9.5 +181Model 36.4% · Market 35.6%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -218Model 63.6% · Market 68.6%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nc60224Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-5 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 26.5% · Market 30.4%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 73.5% · Market 74.4%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nc60224Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-5 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 17.7% · Market 16.9%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 82.3% · Market 85.9%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nc60224Starts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8 -105Model 49.3% · Market 51.2%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8 -105Model 49.3% · Market 51.2%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-105 → -105Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n42dbdbStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +134Model 50.5% · Market 42.7%Edge +7.8% · Full Kelly 13.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +134Model 43.2% · Market 42.7%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+134 → +134Logit 0.000 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n42dbdbStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 10.5 +109Model 46.9% · Market 47.9%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -112Model 52.8% · Market 52.8%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+109 → -112 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n42dbdbStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +398Model 31.8% · Market 20.1%Edge +11.7% · Full Kelly 14.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -489Model 68.2% · Market 83.0%Edge -14.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n42dbdbStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 7.5 +240Model 42.9% · Market 29.4%Edge +13.5% · Full Kelly 19.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -290Model 57.1% · Market 74.4%Edge -17.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n42dbdbStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 5.5 +529Model 24.3% · Market 15.9%Edge +8.4% · Full Kelly 10.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -660Model 75.7% · Market 86.8%Edge -11.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n42dbdbStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassOver 13.5 +252Model 14.4% · Market 28.4%Edge -14.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -322Model 85.6% · Market 76.3%Edge +9.3% · Full Kelly 39.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n42dbdbStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 8.5 +180Model 50.6% · Market 36.2%Edge +14.4% · Full Kelly 23.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -200Model 49.4% · Market 67.1%Edge -17.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+180 → -200 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n42dbdbStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassUnder 9.5 +101Model 52.2% · Market 49.8%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 +119Model 60.6% · Market 46.2%Edge +14.4% · Full Kelly 27.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.6%+101 → +119Logit -0.142 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n42dbdbStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -168Model 74.9% · Market 62.7%Edge +12.2% · Full Kelly 32.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +140Model 25.1% · Market 41.7%Edge -16.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n42dbdbStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 3.5 +1775Model 9.7% · Market 5.3%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -2580Model 90.3% · Market 96.3%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1775 → -2580 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n42dbdbStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassUnder 12.5 -228Model 80.0% · Market 69.5%Edge +10.5% · Full Kelly 34.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +181Model 20.0% · Market 35.6%Edge -15.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n42dbdbStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +1074Model 14.7% · Market 8.5%Edge +6.2% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -1428Model 85.3% · Market 93.5%Edge -8.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1074 → -1428 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n42dbdbStarts | TotalOpening line 10Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10 -110Model 54.5% · Market 52.4%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10 +100Model 54.5% · Market 50.0%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.4%-110 → +100Logit -0.095 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n42dbdbStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -115Model 52.1% · Market 53.5%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -115Model 52.1% · Market 53.5%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-115 → -115Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n90aaffStarts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Won1-9Paper stake $154 · P/L $133 | Paper betArizona Diamondbacks -116Model 56.6% · Market 53.7%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 1.5% · $154 | Paper betArizona Diamondbacks -116Model 56.6% · Market 53.7%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 1.5% · $154 | +0.0%-116 → -116Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n90aaffStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +109Model 50.8% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +101Model 51.0% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.9%+109 → +101Logit 0.076 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n90aaffStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-9 | PassUnder 5.5 +313Model 26.2% · Market 24.2%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 73.8% · Market 79.2%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n90aaffStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-9 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 84.0% · Market 87.8%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 16.0% · Market 14.8%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n90aaffStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-9 | PassOver 7.5 -168Model 54.5% · Market 62.7%Edge -8.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +140Model 45.5% · Market 41.7%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n90aaffStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-9 | PassUnder 12.5 -381Model 82.1% · Market 79.2%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 13.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +313Model 17.9% · Market 24.2%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n90aaffStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-9 | PassUnder 10.5 -191Model 69.8% · Market 66.6%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 12.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 30.2% · Market 37.1%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n90aaffStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-9 | PassUnder 11.5 -276Model 77.2% · Market 73.4%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 14.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +229Model 22.8% · Market 30.4%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n90aaffStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-9 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 89.4% · Market 92.5%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 10.6% · Market 9.6%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +945 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n90aaffStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-9 | PassOver 9.5 +114Model 47.9% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -142Model 63.2% · Market 59.7%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 11.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -142 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n90aaffStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-9 | PassOver 6.5 -276Model 66.0% · Market 73.4%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +229Model 34.0% · Market 30.4%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n90aaffStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-9 | PassOver 13.5 +456Model 12.7% · Market 18.0%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -564Model 87.3% · Market 84.9%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 15.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n90aaffStarts | TotalOpening line 9Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9 -110Model 52.4% · Market 52.4%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9 -110Model 52.4% · Market 52.4%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-110 → -110Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n90aaffStarts | TotalOpening line 9Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9 -110Model 52.4% · Market 52.4%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9 -110Model 52.4% · Market 52.4%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-110 → -110Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n105cc1Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.9% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.0% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.0%+105 → -103Logit 0.078 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n105cc1Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago White Sox -112Model 50.9% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals -112Model 50.7% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → -112 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n105cc1Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.0% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +119Model 46.5% · Market 45.7%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.1%+105 → +119Logit -0.125 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n105cc1Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 17.8% · Market 16.9%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 82.2% · Market 85.9%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n105cc1Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 30.0% · Market 30.4%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 70.0% · Market 73.4%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n105cc1Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 16.1% · Market 18.0%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 83.9% · Market 84.9%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n105cc1Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 65.8% · Market 66.6%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 34.2% · Market 37.6%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n105cc1Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 89.3% · Market 90.6%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 10.7% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n105cc1Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 77.4% · Market 80.2%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 22.6% · Market 23.2%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n105cc1Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 36.5% · Market 36.6%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 63.5% · Market 66.6%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n105cc1Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 73.7% · Market 74.4%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 26.3% · Market 29.4%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n105cc1Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +100Model 49.0% · Market 50.0%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +100Model 49.0% · Market 50.0%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+100 → +100Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n105cc1Starts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 +100Model 50.6% · Market 50.0%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 +100Model 50.6% · Market 50.0%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+100 → +100Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nec3388Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 49.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.7% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%-107 → +101Logit -0.078 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nec3388Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCleveland Guardians -126Model 51.6% · Market 55.8%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMinnesota Twins +101Model 49.2% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-126 → +101 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nec3388Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +158Model 32.2% · Market 39.2%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -175Model 67.8% · Market 64.6%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 11.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nec3388Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -228Model 61.0% · Market 69.5%Edge -8.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +189Model 39.0% · Market 34.6%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nec3388Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-2 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 32.3% · Market 28.4%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 67.7% · Market 75.4%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nec3388Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 90.2% · Market 89.7%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 9.8% · Market 12.7%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nec3388Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassOver 5.5 -251Model 75.4% · Market 71.5%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 13.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +208Model 24.6% · Market 32.5%Edge -7.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nec3388Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 14.9% · Market 19.0%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 85.1% · Market 84.0%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nec3388Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-2 | PassOver 8.5 +129Model 48.9% · Market 44.2%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 9.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -142Model 51.1% · Market 59.2%Edge -8.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nec3388Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-2 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 24.6% · Market 21.1%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 75.4% · Market 82.1%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nec3388Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -110Model 50.6% · Market 52.4%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -110Model 50.6% · Market 52.4%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-110 → -110Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4668c1Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Pending0-20 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.4% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+105 → +105Logit 0.000 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4668c1Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds +146Model 40.0% · Market 40.6%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +166Model 37.4% · Market 37.6%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.1%+146 → +166Logit -0.129 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4668c1Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Pending0-20 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.8% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 49.6% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%+101 → +109Logit -0.076 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4668c1Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-20 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 24.3% · Market 28.4%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 75.7% · Market 75.4%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4668c1Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-20 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 75.1% · Market 80.2%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 24.9% · Market 23.2%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4668c1Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-20 | PassUnder 9.5 -199Model 60.8% · Market 66.6%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +180Model 39.2% · Market 36.7%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4668c1Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-20 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 31.9% · Market 36.6%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 68.1% · Market 67.5%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4668c1Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-20 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 14.7% · Market 18.0%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 85.3% · Market 85.9%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4668c1Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-20 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 9.6% · Market 12.7%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 90.4% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4668c1Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-20 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 32.6% · Market 31.4%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 67.4% · Market 72.5%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4668c1Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-20 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 80.2% · Market 84.9%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 19.8% · Market 18.0%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4668c1Starts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8 -105Model 49.6% · Market 51.2%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8 +100Model 49.6% · Market 50.0%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.2%-105 → +100Logit -0.049 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4668c1Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +100Model 49.8% · Market 50.0%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +100Model 49.8% · Market 50.0%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+100 → +100Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n8ed0cbStarts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Lost5-6Paper stake $142 · P/L -$142 | Paper betPhiladelphia Phillies +152Model 43.1% · Market 39.7%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 5.7%Policy Kelly 1.4% · $142 | Paper betPhiladelphia Phillies +152Model 43.1% · Market 39.7%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 5.7%Policy Kelly 1.4% · $142 | +0.0%+152 → +152Logit 0.000 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n8ed0cbStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Pending5-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +119Model 48.8% · Market 45.7%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 5.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +119Model 48.8% · Market 45.7%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 5.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+119 → +119Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n8ed0cbStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 7.5 +114Model 49.4% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -137Model 48.4% · Market 58.2%Edge -9.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -137 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n8ed0cbStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 8.5 -175Model 56.3% · Market 64.2%Edge -7.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +159Model 43.7% · Market 38.7%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 8.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +159 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n8ed0cbStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -404Model 72.5% · Market 80.2%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +331Model 27.5% · Market 23.2%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n8ed0cbStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassOver 11.5 +490Model 20.4% · Market 16.9%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -609Model 79.6% · Market 85.9%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n8ed0cbStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 5.5 -218Model 71.6% · Market 68.6%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 9.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +181Model 28.4% · Market 35.6%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n8ed0cbStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -290Model 66.1% · Market 74.4%Edge -8.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +240Model 33.9% · Market 29.4%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n8ed0cbStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +331Model 17.6% · Market 23.2%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -404Model 82.4% · Market 80.2%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 11.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n8ed0cbStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 88.2% · Market 86.8%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 10.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 11.8% · Market 15.9%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n8ed0cbStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -105Model 50.5% · Market 51.2%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -105Model 50.5% · Market 51.2%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-105 → -105Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n277d66Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassHouston Astros +146Model 43.6% · Market 40.6%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassHouston Astros +152Model 41.3% · Market 39.7%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+146 → +152Logit -0.040 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n277d66Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.4% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -107Model 50.0% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -107 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n277d66Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-3 | PassUnder 8.5 -142Model 53.8% · Market 59.7%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +134Model 46.2% · Market 43.2%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n277d66Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-3 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 26.5% · Market 30.4%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 73.5% · Market 73.4%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n277d66Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassOver 6.5 -183Model 65.6% · Market 64.7%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +165Model 34.4% · Market 38.7%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n277d66Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 10.7% · Market 13.8%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 89.3% · Market 89.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n277d66Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 16.2% · Market 20.1%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 83.8% · Market 84.0%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n277d66Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassOver 10.5 +266Model 29.8% · Market 27.3%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -322Model 70.2% · Market 76.3%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n277d66Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-3 | PassUnder 9.5 -228Model 63.7% · Market 69.5%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +189Model 36.3% · Market 34.6%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n277d66Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-3 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 77.6% · Market 82.1%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 22.4% · Market 21.1%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n277d66Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +100Model 50.3% · Market 50.0%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +100Model 50.3% · Market 50.0%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+100 → +100Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n3eb67aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBoston Red Sox -199Model 63.1% · Market 66.6%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassKansas City Royals +173Model 36.3% · Market 36.6%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +173 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n3eb67aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.5% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.8% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-103 → -103Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n3eb67aStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 42.5% · Market 39.2%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 57.5% · Market 64.2%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n3eb67aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +198Model 29.2% · Market 33.6%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -239Model 70.8% · Market 70.5%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n3eb67aStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 77.6% · Market 82.1%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 22.4% · Market 21.1%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n3eb67aStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 35.8% · Market 33.6%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 64.2% · Market 70.5%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n3eb67aStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 13.1% · Market 15.9%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 86.9% · Market 86.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n3eb67aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 40.0% · Market 45.7%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 60.0% · Market 57.7%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 7.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -131 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n3eb67aStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 22.0% · Market 26.3%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 78.0% · Market 77.3%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n3eb67aStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -322Model 72.2% · Market 76.3%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +266Model 27.8% · Market 27.3%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n3eb67aStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 8.5% · Market 10.6%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 91.5% · Market 91.6%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n3eb67aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -105Model 50.5% · Market 51.2%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -105Model 50.5% · Market 51.2%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-105 → -105Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n8ef0aaStarts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Lost6-2Paper stake $200 · P/L -$200 | Paper betMiami Marlins +166Model 42.6% · Market 37.6%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 8.1%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betMiami Marlins +166Model 42.6% · Market 37.6%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 8.1%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%+166 → +166Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n8ef0aaStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.1% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +105Model 50.3% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → +105 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n8ef0aaStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 8.5 -155Model 52.5% · Market 61.7%Edge -9.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -161Model 50.8% · Market 61.7%Edge -10.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.0%-155 → -161Logit -0.002 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n8ef0aaStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 69.0% · Market 75.4%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 31.0% · Market 28.4%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n8ef0aaStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassOver 4.5 -458Model 84.4% · Market 82.1%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 12.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +373Model 15.6% · Market 21.1%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n8ef0aaStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassOver 5.5 -251Model 74.4% · Market 71.5%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 10.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +208Model 25.6% · Market 32.5%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n8ef0aaStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 76.6% · Market 82.1%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 23.4% · Market 21.1%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n8ef0aaStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassOver 9.5 +208Model 37.5% · Market 32.5%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 7.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -251Model 62.5% · Market 71.5%Edge -9.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n8ef0aaStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 10.3% · Market 14.8%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 89.7% · Market 88.7%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 8.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n8ef0aaStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +152Model 33.4% · Market 40.2%Edge -6.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -168Model 66.6% · Market 63.2%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 10.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n8ef0aaStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -110Model 50.2% · Market 52.4%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -110Model 50.2% · Market 52.4%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-110 → -110Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n768369Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 50.1% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.1% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+109 → +105Logit 0.037 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n768369Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassToronto Blue Jays -131Model 54.3% · Market 56.7%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassToronto Blue Jays -137Model 57.0% · Market 57.8%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.1%-131 → -137Logit 0.045 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n768369Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-4 | PassUnder 9.5 -209Model 64.1% · Market 68.1%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +188Model 35.9% · Market 35.2%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-209 → +188 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n768369Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-4 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 26.8% · Market 29.4%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 73.2% · Market 74.4%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n768369Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-4 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 65.2% · Market 66.6%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 34.8% · Market 37.6%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n768369Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-4 | PassOver 8.5 -104Model 48.9% · Market 51.0%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -142Model 54.2% · Market 59.2%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-104 → -142 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n768369Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-4 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 89.1% · Market 90.6%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 10.9% · Market 12.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n768369Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-4 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 29.4% · Market 28.4%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 70.6% · Market 75.4%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n768369Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-4 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 82.7% · Market 85.9%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 17.3% · Market 16.9%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n768369Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-4 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 16.5% · Market 18.0%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 83.5% · Market 84.9%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n768369Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-4 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 77.9% · Market 82.1%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 22.1% · Market 21.1%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n768369Starts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -105Model 50.8% · Market 51.2%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 -105Model 50.8% · Market 51.2%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-105 → -105Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n68521bStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Yankees -154Model 58.8% · Market 60.6%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Yankees -131Model 57.9% · Market 56.7%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.9%-154 → -131Logit -0.162 | 5 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n68521bStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 48.4% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+105 → +109Logit -0.037 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n68521bStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 56.1% · Market 56.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 43.9% · Market 46.8%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +119 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n68521bStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 19.2% · Market 19.0%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 80.8% · Market 84.0%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n68521bStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 67.4% · Market 68.6%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 32.6% · Market 35.6%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n68521bStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 15.1% · Market 16.9%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 84.9% · Market 85.9%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n68521bStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 31.8% · Market 31.4%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 68.2% · Market 72.5%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n68521bStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 75.1% · Market 76.3%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 24.9% · Market 28.4%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n68521bStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 24.2% · Market 23.2%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 75.8% · Market 80.2%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n68521bStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassOver 9.5 +165Model 38.4% · Market 38.2%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 61.6% · Market 65.1%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+165 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n68521bStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 10.0% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 90.0% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n68521bStarts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -110Model 51.7% · Market 52.4%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 -110Model 51.7% · Market 52.4%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-110 → -110Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n68521bStarts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -106Model 51.7% · Market 51.5%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 -106Model 51.7% · Market 51.5%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-106 → -106Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n1300a7Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals -142Model 57.3% · Market 58.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Angels +134Model 42.1% · Market 42.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +134 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n1300a7Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.5% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.5% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-103 → -103Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n1300a7Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 86.0% · Market 84.0%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 12.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 14.0% · Market 19.0%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n1300a7Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 76.7% · Market 75.4%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 23.3% · Market 28.4%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n1300a7Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 79.1% · Market 85.9%Edge -6.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 20.9% · Market 16.9%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n1300a7Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 34.0% · Market 29.4%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 66.0% · Market 74.4%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n1300a7Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 6.5 -191Model 69.3% · Market 65.6%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 10.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +159Model 30.7% · Market 38.6%Edge -7.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +159 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n1300a7Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 26.1% · Market 24.2%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 73.9% · Market 79.2%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n1300a7Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 9.5 -200Model 59.4% · Market 67.6%Edge -8.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +181Model 40.6% · Market 35.7%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 7.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n1300a7Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.5% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +124Model 50.6% · Market 45.2%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.6%+101 → +124Logit -0.185 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n1300a7Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 90.9% · Market 89.7%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 11.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 9.1% · Market 12.7%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n1300a7Starts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -102Model 49.8% · Market 50.5%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 -102Model 49.8% · Market 50.5%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-102 → -102Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n1300a7Starts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -105Model 49.8% · Market 51.2%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 -105Model 49.8% · Market 51.2%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-105 → -105Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n131b2bStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers -161Model 60.2% · Market 61.7%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers -183Model 64.4% · Market 64.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.0%-161 → -183Logit 0.128 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n131b2bStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Pending2-6 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.4% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+105 → +105Logit 0.000 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n131b2bStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 58.5% · Market 66.1%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 58.5% · Market 65.6%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%-191 → -191Logit -0.020 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n131b2bStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Pending2-6 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.3% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 49.6% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.0%+101 → +114Logit -0.121 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n131b2bStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 27.0% · Market 23.2%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 73.0% · Market 80.2%Edge -7.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n131b2bStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 77.3% · Market 76.3%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 22.7% · Market 27.3%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n131b2bStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 8.8% · Market 11.7%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 91.2% · Market 91.6%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n131b2bStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 30.0% · Market 36.6%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 70.0% · Market 67.5%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 7.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n131b2bStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 78.3% · Market 84.9%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 21.7% · Market 18.0%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n131b2bStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 86.5% · Market 85.9%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 13.5% · Market 18.0%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n131b2bStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 65.1% · Market 72.5%Edge -7.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 34.9% · Market 31.4%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n131b2bStarts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -105Model 50.0% · Market 51.2%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 -105Model 50.0% · Market 51.2%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-105 → -105Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n131b2bStarts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -105Model 50.0% · Market 51.2%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 -105Model 50.0% · Market 51.2%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-105 → -105Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n26df9aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago Cubs -131Model 57.6% · Market 56.7%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassPittsburgh Pirates +159Model 36.7% · Market 38.6%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +159 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n26df9aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -105Model 49.8% · Market 51.2%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.7% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.5%-105 → +101Logit -0.059 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n26df9aStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-12 | PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 57.8% · Market 63.2%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +152Model 42.2% · Market 40.2%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n26df9aStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-12 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 8.6% · Market 10.6%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 91.4% · Market 91.6%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n26df9aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-12 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 70.6% · Market 69.5%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 29.4% · Market 34.6%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n26df9aStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-12 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 72.4% · Market 80.2%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 27.6% · Market 23.2%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 5.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n26df9aStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-12 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 77.8% · Market 84.0%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 22.2% · Market 19.0%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n26df9aStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-12 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 13.2% · Market 15.9%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 86.8% · Market 86.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n26df9aStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-12 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 35.5% · Market 32.5%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 64.5% · Market 71.5%Edge -7.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n26df9aStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-12 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 22.2% · Market 26.3%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 77.8% · Market 77.3%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n26df9aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-12 | PassOver 7.5 -142Model 59.7% · Market 59.2%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +129Model 40.3% · Market 44.2%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +129 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6c5bd4Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago White Sox -121Model 55.1% · Market 54.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago White Sox -115Model 56.2% · Market 53.5%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.3%-121 → -115Logit -0.051 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6c5bd4Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -116Model 50.1% · Market 50.9%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.8% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.2%-116 → -103Logit -0.008 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6c5bd4Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-0 | PassUnder 6.5 +158Model 33.0% · Market 39.2%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -175Model 67.0% · Market 64.6%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 9.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6c5bd4Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-0 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 23.8% · Market 22.2%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 76.2% · Market 81.1%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6c5bd4Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-0 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 15.3% · Market 19.0%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 84.7% · Market 84.0%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6c5bd4Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-0 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 68.6% · Market 74.4%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 31.4% · Market 29.4%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6c5bd4Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-0 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 25.2% · Market 30.4%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 74.8% · Market 73.4%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6c5bd4Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-0 | PassOver 9.5 +181Model 38.0% · Market 35.6%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -218Model 62.0% · Market 68.6%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6c5bd4Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-0 | PassOver 8.5 +124Model 47.9% · Market 45.2%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -137Model 52.1% · Market 58.2%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -137 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6c5bd4Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 10.1% · Market 12.7%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 89.9% · Market 89.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6c5bd4Starts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8 +100Model 49.8% · Market 50.0%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8 +100Model 49.8% · Market 50.0%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+100 → +100Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6c5bd4Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -105Model 49.9% · Market 51.2%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -105Model 49.9% · Market 51.2%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-105 → -105Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n0e5fb3Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 51.0% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.3% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → +101 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n0e5fb3Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassColorado Rockies +218Model 36.2% · Market 31.4%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassColorado Rockies +230Model 33.1% · Market 30.3%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.2%+218 → +230Logit -0.054 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n0e5fb3Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-10 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 67.8% · Market 70.5%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 32.2% · Market 33.6%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n0e5fb3Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-10 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 85.0% · Market 86.8%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 15.0% · Market 15.9%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n0e5fb3Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-10 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 80.4% · Market 83.0%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 19.6% · Market 20.1%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n0e5fb3Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-10 | PassOver 11.5 +280Model 24.6% · Market 26.3%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 75.4% · Market 77.3%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n0e5fb3Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-10 | PassUnder 6.5 +198Model 32.4% · Market 33.6%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -239Model 67.6% · Market 70.5%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n0e5fb3Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-10 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 9.9% · Market 10.6%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 90.1% · Market 91.6%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n0e5fb3Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-10 | PassOver 9.5 +152Model 38.7% · Market 40.2%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 61.3% · Market 63.2%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n0e5fb3Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-10 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 75.3% · Market 77.3%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 24.7% · Market 26.3%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n0e5fb3Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-10 | PassOver 7.5 -148Model 56.3% · Market 59.7%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +134Model 43.7% · Market 43.7%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n0e5fb3Starts | TotalOpening line 9Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9 -120Model 52.8% · Market 54.5%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9 -120Model 52.8% · Market 54.5%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-120 → -120Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n712080Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassTexas Rangers +109Model 48.2% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSeattle Mariners -120Model 52.7% · Market 54.5%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+109 → -120 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n712080Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +101Model 50.0% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +114Model 49.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.0%+101 → +114Logit -0.121 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n712080Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 5.5 -175Model 64.8% · Market 63.6%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +165Model 35.2% · Market 39.2%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n712080Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 8.5 +197Model 35.5% · Market 34.1%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -218Model 64.5% · Market 68.6%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+197 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n712080Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 7.5 +146Model 43.4% · Market 41.2%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -154Model 56.6% · Market 60.7%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -154 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n712080Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassUnder 4.5 +266Model 22.8% · Market 27.3%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -340Model 77.2% · Market 77.3%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n712080Starts | TotalOpening line 7Decision tracked · no bet | Push3-4 | PassOver 7 +105Model 49.5% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7 -139Model 50.5% · Market 58.2%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -139 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n712080Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 10.5 +425Model 20.6% · Market 19.0%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -525Model 79.4% · Market 84.0%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n712080Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassUnder 3.5 +425Model 15.6% · Market 19.0%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -525Model 84.4% · Market 84.0%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n712080Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 11.5 -788Model 85.4% · Market 88.7%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +625Model 14.6% · Market 13.8%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n712080Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 9.5 -360Model 73.7% · Market 78.3%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +296Model 26.3% · Market 25.3%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nf4dcccStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -116Model 51.3% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 51.0% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%-116 → -107Logit -0.081 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nf4dcccStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassHouston Astros +166Model 43.7% · Market 37.6%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 9.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassPhiladelphia Phillies -190Model 63.8% · Market 65.5%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -190 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nf4dcccStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-1 | PassOver 7.5 -148Model 54.5% · Market 59.7%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -148Model 54.5% · Market 60.2%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.5%-148 → -148Logit 0.020 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nf4dcccStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-1 | PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 63.2% · Market 62.7%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -161Model 63.2% · Market 62.2%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%-168 → -161Logit -0.021 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nf4dcccStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-1 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 69.8% · Market 70.5%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 30.2% · Market 33.6%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nf4dcccStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-1 | PassOver 5.5 -360Model 73.9% · Market 78.3%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +296Model 26.1% · Market 25.3%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nf4dcccStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-1 | PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 77.2% · Market 77.3%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +280Model 22.8% · Market 26.3%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nf4dcccStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-1 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 17.9% · Market 21.1%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 82.1% · Market 82.1%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nf4dcccStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-1 | PassOver 6.5 -239Model 66.0% · Market 70.5%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +198Model 34.0% · Market 33.6%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nf4dcccStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-1 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 89.4% · Market 91.6%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 10.6% · Market 10.6%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nf4dcccStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-1 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 16.0% · Market 15.9%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 84.0% · Market 87.8%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na7e322Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -112Model 49.6% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.1%-112 → -103Logit -0.084 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na7e322Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAtlanta Braves -121Model 53.5% · Market 54.8%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTampa Bay Rays +105Model 47.4% · Market 48.8%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-121 → +105 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na7e322Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 38.9% · Market 45.2%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 38.9% · Market 44.6%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%+124 → +124Logit -0.021 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na7e322Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 43.6% · Market 39.7%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 7.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 56.4% · Market 63.6%Edge -7.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na7e322Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassOver 11.5 +280Model 28.7% · Market 26.3%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 71.3% · Market 77.3%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na7e322Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-3 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 21.3% · Market 26.3%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 78.7% · Market 77.3%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na7e322Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 23.3% · Market 20.1%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 76.7% · Market 83.0%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na7e322Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-3 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 91.8% · Market 92.5%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 8.2% · Market 9.6%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +945 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na7e322Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassOver 6.5 -239Model 71.7% · Market 70.5%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +198Model 28.3% · Market 33.6%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na7e322Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 87.4% · Market 87.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 12.6% · Market 14.8%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66na7e322Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 36.8% · Market 32.5%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 63.2% · Market 71.5%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n19378cStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds +218Model 39.3% · Market 31.4%Edge +7.8% · Full Kelly 11.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +230Model 35.6% · Market 30.3%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 7.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.2%+218 → +230Logit -0.054 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n19378cStarts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -105Model 50.3% · Market 51.2%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 -105Model 50.3% · Market 51.2%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-105 → -105Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n19378cStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-14 | PassUnder 8.5 -104Model 51.2% · Market 51.0%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -121Model 52.3% · Market 55.3%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +4.3%-104 → -121Logit 0.172 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n19378cStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-14 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 62.2% · Market 64.2%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +159Model 37.8% · Market 38.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +159 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n19378cStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-14 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 89.8% · Market 91.6%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 10.2% · Market 10.6%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n19378cStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-14 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 66.9% · Market 69.5%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 33.1% · Market 34.6%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n19378cStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-14 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 15.4% · Market 16.9%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 84.6% · Market 86.8%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n19378cStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-14 | PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 76.2% · Market 78.3%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 23.8% · Market 25.3%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n19378cStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-14 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 44.5% · Market 46.2%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 55.5% · Market 57.3%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -131 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n19378cStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-14 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 81.2% · Market 82.1%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 18.8% · Market 21.1%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n19378cStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-14 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 68.7% · Market 71.5%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 31.3% · Market 32.5%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n19378cStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-14 | PassUnder 5.5 +296Model 25.3% · Market 25.3%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -360Model 74.7% · Market 78.3%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n06278dStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMilwaukee Brewers -142Model 58.9% · Market 58.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMilwaukee Brewers -133Model 57.2% · Market 57.1%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.6%-142 → -133Logit -0.066 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n06278dStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -104Model 49.9% · Market 51.0%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -107Model 50.2% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-104 → -107 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n06278dStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-8 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 76.3% · Market 81.1%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 23.7% · Market 22.2%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n06278dStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-8 | PassUnder 9.5 -219Model 62.1% · Market 69.6%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +198Model 37.9% · Market 33.6%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-219 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n06278dStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-8 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 89.9% · Market 88.7%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 9.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 10.1% · Market 13.8%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n06278dStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-8 | PassOver 6.5 -183Model 66.9% · Market 64.7%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +152Model 33.1% · Market 39.7%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n06278dStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-8 | PassOver 8.5 +134Model 47.8% · Market 43.2%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 8.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -148Model 52.2% · Market 60.2%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n06278dStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-8 | PassOver 5.5 -263Model 74.7% · Market 72.5%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 8.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +218Model 25.3% · Market 31.4%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n06278dStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-8 | PassOver 10.5 +266Model 31.3% · Market 27.3%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -322Model 68.7% · Market 76.3%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n06278dStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-8 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 15.4% · Market 20.1%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -489Model 84.6% · Market 83.0%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 9.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n06278dStarts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8 -105Model 49.5% · Market 51.2%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8 -105Model 49.5% · Market 51.2%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-105 → -105Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd7bb97Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassKansas City Royals +101Model 49.1% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassKansas City Royals +100Model 49.0% · Market 50.0%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.3%+101 → +100Logit 0.010 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd7bb97Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 50.1% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +101Model 50.0% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%-103 → +101Logit -0.040 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd7bb97Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-5 | PassOver 9.5 +134Model 44.2% · Market 43.2%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -154Model 55.8% · Market 60.7%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -154 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd7bb97Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 70.8% · Market 75.4%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 29.2% · Market 28.4%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd7bb97Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-5 | PassUnder 7.5 +140Model 38.4% · Market 42.2%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -155Model 61.6% · Market 61.2%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -155 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd7bb97Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-5 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 92.0% · Market 92.5%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 8.0% · Market 9.6%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +945 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd7bb97Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-5 | PassUnder 10.5 -208Model 62.6% · Market 67.5%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 37.4% · Market 36.6%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd7bb97Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-5 | PassUnder 6.5 +218Model 27.9% · Market 31.4%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -276Model 72.1% · Market 73.4%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd7bb97Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-5 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 87.6% · Market 87.8%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 12.4% · Market 14.8%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd7bb97Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-5 | PassUnder 12.5 -430Model 76.2% · Market 81.1%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +331Model 23.8% · Market 23.2%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd7bb97Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-5 | PassUnder 5.5 +331Model 21.0% · Market 23.2%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -404Model 79.0% · Market 80.2%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd7bb97Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.3% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.3% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+105 → +105Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66ne8a950Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.1% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +101Model 50.7% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → +101 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66ne8a950Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago White Sox -137Model 55.7% · Market 57.8%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassPittsburgh Pirates +115Model 45.8% · Market 46.5%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +115 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66ne8a950Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 75.3% · Market 75.4%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 24.7% · Market 28.4%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66ne8a950Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassUnder 7.5 -106Model 49.7% · Market 51.5%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +140Model 43.3% · Market 42.2%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -9.3%-106 → +140Logit -0.373 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66ne8a950Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 14.8% · Market 14.8%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 85.2% · Market 87.8%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66ne8a950Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 32.3% · Market 36.6%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -208Model 67.7% · Market 67.5%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66ne8a950Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 75.5% · Market 79.2%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +313Model 24.5% · Market 24.2%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66ne8a950Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassOver 12.5 +331Model 19.6% · Market 23.2%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -404Model 80.4% · Market 80.2%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66ne8a950Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +226Model 32.1% · Market 31.1%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -252Model 67.9% · Market 72.0%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+226 → -252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66ne8a950Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -154Model 61.0% · Market 60.6%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +129Model 39.0% · Market 43.7%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-154 → +129 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66ne8a950Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 9.7% · Market 9.6%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 90.3% · Market 92.5%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+945 → -1236 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66ne8a950Starts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8 -105Model 49.8% · Market 51.2%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 -105Model 50.4% · Market 51.2%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-105 → -105 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nfaa185Starts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -105Model 50.4% · Market 51.2%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 -105Model 50.4% · Market 51.2%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-105 → -105Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nfaa185Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAtlanta Braves -126Model 54.9% · Market 55.8%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTampa Bay Rays +105Model 48.7% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-126 → +105 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nfaa185Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassUnder 8.5 -114Model 51.1% · Market 53.3%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -121Model 52.4% · Market 55.3%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.0%-114 → -121Logit 0.080 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nfaa185Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-2 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 50.0% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 55.4% · Market 56.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+109 → -131 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nfaa185Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 84.5% · Market 85.9%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 15.5% · Market 16.9%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nfaa185Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 68.9% · Market 73.4%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 31.1% · Market 31.4%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nfaa185Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 89.7% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 10.3% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nfaa185Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 74.5% · Market 76.3%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 25.5% · Market 27.3%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nfaa185Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 76.5% · Market 79.2%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 23.5% · Market 24.2%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nfaa185Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 33.3% · Market 35.6%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 66.7% · Market 68.6%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nfaa185Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 62.3% · Market 65.6%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +166Model 37.7% · Market 37.7%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nfaa185Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-2 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 18.6% · Market 18.0%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 81.4% · Market 84.9%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nfaa185Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -115Model 51.1% · Market 51.1%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -115Model 51.1% · Market 51.1%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-115 → -115Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nd58b3cStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +101Model 48.0% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -107Model 51.8% · Market 51.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → -107 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nd58b3cStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassColorado Rockies +173Model 35.6% · Market 36.6%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassColorado Rockies +200Model 32.4% · Market 33.3%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.3%+173 → +200Logit -0.145 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nd58b3cStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +280Model 31.2% · Market 26.3%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -340Model 68.8% · Market 77.3%Edge -8.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nd58b3cStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-6 | PassOver 10.5 +140Model 33.5% · Market 42.2%Edge -8.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -155Model 66.5% · Market 61.2%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 14.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -155 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nd58b3cStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-6 | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 50.7% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -148Model 50.0% · Market 60.2%Edge -10.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -148 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nd58b3cStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-6 | PassUnder 13.5 -458Model 85.2% · Market 82.1%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 17.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +373Model 14.8% · Market 21.1%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nd58b3cStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-6 | PassOver 3.5 -1684Model 90.6% · Market 94.4%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1241Model 9.4% · Market 7.5%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1684 → +1241 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nd58b3cStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-6 | PassUnder 12.5 -322Model 79.4% · Market 76.3%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 13.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +266Model 20.6% · Market 27.3%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nd58b3cStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -239Model 74.3% · Market 70.5%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 12.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +198Model 25.7% · Market 33.6%Edge -7.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nd58b3cStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-6 | PassOver 7.5 -208Model 57.6% · Market 67.5%Edge -9.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +173Model 42.4% · Market 36.6%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 9.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nd58b3cStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-6 | PassUnder 5.5 +425Model 23.7% · Market 19.0%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -525Model 76.3% · Market 84.0%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nd58b3cStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-6 | PassOver 4.5 -967Model 85.7% · Market 90.6%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +756Model 14.3% · Market 11.7%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nd58b3cStarts | TotalOpening line 9Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9 -102Model 52.4% · Market 50.5%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9 +100Model 52.0% · Market 50.0%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%-102 → +100Logit -0.020 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nd58b3cStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +115Model 48.0% · Market 46.5%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +115Model 48.0% · Market 46.5%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+115 → +115Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nd58b3cStarts | TotalOpening line 9Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9 -108Model 52.3% · Market 51.9%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9 -108Model 52.3% · Market 51.9%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-108 → -108Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n9053adStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels +166Model 39.8% · Market 37.6%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Angels +170Model 36.4% · Market 37.0%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.6%+166 → +170Logit -0.024 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n9053adStarts | TotalOpening line 9Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9 +105Model 51.6% · Market 48.8%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9 +100Model 50.7% · Market 50.0%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.2%+105 → +100Logit 0.049 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n9053adStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-4 | PassOver 5.5 -489Model 79.7% · Market 83.0%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +398Model 20.3% · Market 20.1%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n9053adStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-4 | PassOver 3.5 -1684Model 92.3% · Market 94.4%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1241Model 7.7% · Market 7.5%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1684 → +1241 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n9053adStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-4 | PassOver 9.5 +105Model 48.4% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +109Model 45.1% · Market 48.3%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%+105 → +109Logit -0.019 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n9053adStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-4 | PassOver 13.5 +398Model 18.2% · Market 20.1%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -489Model 81.8% · Market 83.0%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n9053adStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-4 | PassUnder 4.5 +756Model 11.9% · Market 11.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -967Model 88.1% · Market 90.6%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n9053adStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-4 | PassUnder 8.5 +129Model 45.0% · Market 44.2%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -142Model 55.0% · Market 59.2%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n9053adStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-4 | PassOver 10.5 +146Model 38.3% · Market 41.2%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -161Model 61.7% · Market 62.2%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n9053adStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-4 | PassUnder 12.5 -340Model 75.4% · Market 77.3%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +280Model 24.6% · Market 26.3%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n9053adStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-4 | PassUnder 7.5 +166Model 37.6% · Market 37.6%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -199Model 62.4% · Market 66.6%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n9053adStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-4 | PassUnder 11.5 -251Model 69.9% · Market 71.5%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +208Model 30.1% · Market 32.5%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n9053adStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-4 | PassOver 6.5 -322Model 72.9% · Market 76.3%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +266Model 27.1% · Market 27.3%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n9053adStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +100Model 48.4% · Market 50.0%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +100Model 48.4% · Market 50.0%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+100 → +100Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n135781Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassHouston Astros +134Model 42.2% · Market 42.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassPhiladelphia Phillies -154Model 59.8% · Market 60.6%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -154 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n135781Starts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -110Model 51.7% · Market 52.4%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 -110Model 50.9% · Market 52.4%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-110 → -110Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n135781Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-11 | PassUnder 8.5 -116Model 54.6% · Market 54.2%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 45.4% · Market 48.3%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → +109 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n135781Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-11 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 29.1% · Market 31.4%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 70.9% · Market 72.5%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n135781Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-11 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 16.7% · Market 18.0%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 83.3% · Market 84.9%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n135781Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-11 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 17.0% · Market 19.0%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 83.0% · Market 84.0%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n135781Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-11 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 72.9% · Market 75.4%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 27.1% · Market 28.4%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n135781Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-11 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 78.2% · Market 79.2%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 21.8% · Market 24.2%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n135781Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-11 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 64.9% · Market 68.6%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 35.1% · Market 35.6%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n135781Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-11 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 11.1% · Market 11.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 88.9% · Market 90.6%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n135781Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-11 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 53.3% · Market 57.3%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 46.7% · Market 46.2%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +119 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n135781Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-11 | PassOver 9.5 +165Model 35.5% · Market 38.2%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 64.5% · Market 65.1%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+165 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n135781Starts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -118Model 51.6% · Market 54.1%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 -118Model 51.6% · Market 54.1%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-118 → -118Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66naf2d07Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMiami Marlins -126Model 61.5% · Market 55.8%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 13.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins -125Model 58.3% · Market 55.6%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.2%-126 → -125Logit -0.008 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66naf2d07Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 51.5% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +101Model 50.7% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%-103 → +101Logit -0.040 | 3 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66naf2d07Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost15-14 | PassOver 7.5 -161Model 56.3% · Market 62.2%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +146Model 43.7% · Market 41.2%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66naf2d07Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost15-14 | PassOver 12.5 +351Model 19.3% · Market 22.2%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -430Model 80.7% · Market 81.1%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66naf2d07Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost15-14 | PassOver 9.5 +134Model 38.6% · Market 43.2%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -148Model 61.4% · Market 60.2%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66naf2d07Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won15-14 | PassUnder 5.5 +313Model 24.8% · Market 24.2%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 75.2% · Market 79.2%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66naf2d07Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost15-14 | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 31.9% · Market 36.6%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -208Model 68.1% · Market 67.5%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66naf2d07Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won15-14 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 9.9% · Market 9.6%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 90.1% · Market 92.5%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+945 → -1236 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66naf2d07Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost15-14 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 24.3% · Market 28.4%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 75.7% · Market 75.4%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66naf2d07Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost15-14 | PassOver 6.5 -263Model 67.5% · Market 72.5%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +218Model 32.5% · Market 31.4%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66naf2d07Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won15-14 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 15.0% · Market 14.8%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 85.0% · Market 87.8%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66naf2d07Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -106Model 51.2% · Market 51.5%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -106Model 51.2% · Market 51.5%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-106 → -106Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66nc81f57Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCleveland Guardians -116Model 50.7% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBaltimore Orioles -102Model 48.6% · Market 50.5%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → -102 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66nc81f57Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.3% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 50.2% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.9%+105 → -107Logit 0.116 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66nc81f57Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-9 | PassUnder 7.5 +134Model 40.1% · Market 43.2%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -155Model 59.9% · Market 61.2%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -155 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66nc81f57Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-9 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 91.4% · Market 92.5%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 8.6% · Market 9.6%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +945 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66nc81f57Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-9 | PassUnder 11.5 -322Model 72.4% · Market 76.3%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +266Model 27.6% · Market 27.3%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66nc81f57Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-9 | PassOver 12.5 +351Model 22.2% · Market 22.2%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -430Model 77.8% · Market 81.1%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66nc81f57Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-9 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 86.8% · Market 87.8%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 13.2% · Market 14.8%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66nc81f57Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-9 | PassOver 9.5 +140Model 42.3% · Market 42.2%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -155Model 57.7% · Market 61.2%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -155 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66nc81f57Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-9 | PassUnder 10.5 -228Model 64.4% · Market 69.5%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +189Model 35.6% · Market 34.6%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66nc81f57Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-9 | PassOver 6.5 -263Model 70.6% · Market 72.5%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +218Model 29.4% · Market 31.4%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66nc81f57Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-9 | PassOver 13.5 +529Model 16.2% · Market 15.9%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -660Model 83.8% · Market 86.8%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66nc81f57Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-9 | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 77.8% · Market 79.2%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +313Model 22.2% · Market 24.2%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66nc81f57Starts | TotalOpening line 9Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9 +100Model 48.4% · Market 50.0%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9 +100Model 48.4% · Market 50.0%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+100 → +100Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66nc81f57Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +100Model 50.3% · Market 50.0%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +100Model 50.3% · Market 50.0%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+100 → +100Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n07c1d2Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 48.3% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +101Model 51.5% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → +101 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n07c1d2Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals +140Model 43.6% · Market 41.7%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals +154Model 40.5% · Market 39.4%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.3%+140 → +154Logit -0.095 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n07c1d2Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-9 | PassOver 7.5 -148Model 50.2% · Market 60.2%Edge -9.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +134Model 49.8% · Market 43.2%Edge +6.6% · Full Kelly 12.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n07c1d2Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-9 | PassOver 5.5 -360Model 70.6% · Market 78.3%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +296Model 29.4% · Market 25.3%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n07c1d2Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-9 | PassUnder 9.5 -161Model 67.3% · Market 62.7%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 14.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +146Model 32.7% · Market 40.7%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n07c1d2Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-9 | PassUnder 10.5 -228Model 73.6% · Market 69.5%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 13.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +189Model 26.4% · Market 34.6%Edge -8.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n07c1d2Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-9 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 12.3% · Market 10.6%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 87.7% · Market 91.6%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n07c1d2Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-9 | PassOver 6.5 -239Model 62.1% · Market 70.5%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +198Model 37.9% · Market 33.6%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n07c1d2Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-9 | PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 80.5% · Market 77.3%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 14.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +280Model 19.5% · Market 26.3%Edge -6.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n07c1d2Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-9 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 85.0% · Market 82.1%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 16.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 15.0% · Market 21.1%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n07c1d2Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-9 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 18.4% · Market 14.8%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 81.6% · Market 87.8%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n07c1d2Starts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -105Model 51.7% · Market 51.2%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 +100Model 51.7% · Market 50.0%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.2%-105 → +100Logit -0.049 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n07c1d2Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -114Model 51.6% · Market 53.3%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -114Model 51.6% · Market 53.3%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-114 → -114Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n4bc91eStarts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Lost2-3Paper stake $200 · P/L -$200 | Paper betTexas Rangers +130Model 50.6% · Market 43.5%Edge +7.1% · Full Kelly 12.6%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betTexas Rangers +130Model 50.6% · Market 43.5%Edge +7.1% · Full Kelly 12.6%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%+130 → +130Logit 0.000 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n4bc91eStarts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -115Model 52.0% · Market 53.5%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 -110Model 51.2% · Market 52.4%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%-115 → -110Logit -0.045 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n4bc91eStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 7.5 -105Model 50.8% · Market 51.2%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 52.1% · Market 56.7%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-105 → -131 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n4bc91eStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 48.5% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 44.2% · Market 48.3%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.6%+114 → +109Logit 0.064 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n4bc91eStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 34.4% · Market 36.6%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -208Model 65.6% · Market 67.5%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n4bc91eStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 88.4% · Market 90.6%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 11.6% · Market 11.7%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n4bc91eStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 72.0% · Market 73.4%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 28.0% · Market 30.4%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n4bc91eStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 6.5 +180Model 36.2% · Market 36.2%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -200Model 63.8% · Market 67.1%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+180 → -200 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n4bc91eStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 20.8% · Market 22.2%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 79.2% · Market 81.1%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n4bc91eStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 72.0% · Market 74.4%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 28.0% · Market 29.4%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n4bc91eStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 17.4% · Market 18.0%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 82.6% · Market 84.9%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n276391Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Francisco Giants -103Model 49.5% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants +100Model 49.1% · Market 50.0%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.7%-103 → +100Logit -0.030 | 5 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n276391Starts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 +100Model 50.6% · Market 50.0%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 -110Model 50.1% · Market 52.4%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.4%+100 → -110Logit 0.095 | 3 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n276391Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-7 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 75.4% · Market 79.2%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 24.6% · Market 24.2%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n276391Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-7 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 67.8% · Market 72.5%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 32.2% · Market 31.4%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n276391Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 85.1% · Market 85.9%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 14.9% · Market 16.9%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n276391Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 19.5% · Market 19.0%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 80.5% · Market 84.0%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n276391Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 9.5 +165Model 38.9% · Market 38.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 61.1% · Market 64.7%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+165 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n276391Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 48.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -126Model 51.2% · Market 56.2%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -126 | 5 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n276391Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-7 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 24.7% · Market 26.3%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 75.3% · Market 77.3%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n276391Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-7 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 32.3% · Market 35.6%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 67.7% · Market 68.6%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n276391Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 90.2% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 9.8% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n276391Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-7 | PassUnder 7.5 +114Model 43.4% · Market 47.3%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -126Model 56.6% · Market 56.2%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -126 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n276391Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +100Model 49.0% · Market 50.0%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +100Model 49.0% · Market 50.0%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+100 → +100Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n0e9e9aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +152Model 47.3% · Market 39.7%Edge +7.6% · Full Kelly 12.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +135Model 44.9% · Market 42.5%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.9%+152 → +135Logit 0.119 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n0e9e9aStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +101Model 48.3% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +105Model 48.1% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+101 → +105Logit -0.039 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n0e9e9aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 8.5 +129Model 50.2% · Market 43.7%Edge +6.5% · Full Kelly 11.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -142Model 49.8% · Market 59.2%Edge -9.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n0e9e9aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 7.5 -200Model 57.5% · Market 67.1%Edge -9.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +180Model 42.5% · Market 36.2%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 10.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n0e9e9aStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 13.5 +373Model 14.6% · Market 21.1%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -458Model 85.4% · Market 82.1%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 18.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n0e9e9aStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 10.5 +134Model 33.2% · Market 42.7%Edge -9.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -161Model 66.8% · Market 61.7%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 13.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n0e9e9aStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 12.5 -322Model 79.7% · Market 76.3%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 14.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +266Model 20.3% · Market 27.3%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n0e9e9aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +280Model 31.4% · Market 26.3%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 7.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -340Model 68.6% · Market 77.3%Edge -8.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n0e9e9aStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 5.5 -489Model 76.0% · Market 83.0%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +398Model 24.0% · Market 20.1%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n0e9e9aStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +756Model 14.5% · Market 11.7%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -967Model 85.5% · Market 90.6%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n0e9e9aStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 3.5 -1684Model 90.5% · Market 94.4%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1241Model 9.5% · Market 7.5%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1684 → +1241 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n0e9e9aStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -251Model 74.6% · Market 71.5%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +198Model 25.4% · Market 33.6%Edge -8.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n0e9e9aStarts | TotalOpening line 9Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9 +100Model 51.7% · Market 50.0%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9 +100Model 51.7% · Market 50.0%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+100 → +100Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n0e9e9aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -105Model 50.4% · Market 51.2%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -105Model 50.4% · Market 51.2%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-105 → -105Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66ncc24c0Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers -126Model 54.2% · Market 55.8%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers -125Model 58.4% · Market 55.6%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.2%-126 → -125Logit -0.008 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66ncc24c0Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -108Model 51.0% · Market 51.9%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 50.9% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.2%-108 → -103Logit -0.047 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66ncc24c0Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-7 | PassUnder 9.5 -161Model 63.0% · Market 62.2%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +146Model 37.0% · Market 41.7%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66ncc24c0Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-7 | PassUnder 5.5 +296Model 25.9% · Market 25.3%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -360Model 74.1% · Market 78.3%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66ncc24c0Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-7 | PassUnder 6.5 +208Model 33.8% · Market 32.5%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -251Model 66.2% · Market 71.5%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66ncc24c0Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-7 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 10.5% · Market 9.6%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 89.5% · Market 92.5%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+945 → -1236 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66ncc24c0Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-7 | PassOver 7.5 -148Model 54.8% · Market 60.2%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +134Model 45.2% · Market 43.2%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66ncc24c0Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-7 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 81.9% · Market 82.1%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 18.1% · Market 21.1%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66ncc24c0Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-7 | PassOver 11.5 +280Model 23.0% · Market 26.3%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 77.0% · Market 77.3%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66ncc24c0Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-7 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 84.2% · Market 87.8%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 15.8% · Market 14.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66ncc24c0Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-7 | PassOver 10.5 +189Model 30.5% · Market 34.6%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -228Model 69.5% · Market 69.5%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n04b566Starts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -105Model 51.5% · Market 51.2%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 -110Model 51.6% · Market 52.4%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.2%-105 → -110Logit 0.046 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n04b566Starts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | PendingAwaiting finalPaper stake $200 · P/L pending | Paper betCincinnati Reds +260Model 34.6% · Market 27.8%Edge +6.8% · Full Kelly 9.4%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betCincinnati Reds +260Model 34.6% · Market 27.8%Edge +6.8% · Full Kelly 9.4%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%+260 → +260Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n04b566Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 19.8% · Market 23.2%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 80.2% · Market 80.2%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n04b566Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 37.7% · Market 37.6%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 62.3% · Market 66.6%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n04b566Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.5% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 49.5% · Market 48.3%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%+105 → +109Logit -0.019 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n04b566Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 67.1% · Market 65.6%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 6.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +166Model 32.9% · Market 37.7%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n04b566Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 26.7% · Market 30.4%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 73.3% · Market 73.4%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n04b566Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 29.2% · Market 29.4%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 70.8% · Market 74.4%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n04b566Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 18.3% · Market 19.0%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 81.7% · Market 84.0%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n04b566Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassUnder 8.5 -121Model 51.6% · Market 54.8%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -126Model 57.4% · Market 56.2%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.5%-121 → -126Logit 0.060 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n04b566Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 84.7% · Market 84.9%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 15.3% · Market 18.0%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n04b566Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 12.2% · Market 12.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 87.8% · Market 89.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n94646bStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSt. Louis Cardinals -107Model 50.8% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants -110Model 51.6% · Market 52.4%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -110 | 4 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n94646bStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 50.2% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.9% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%-107 → +101Logit -0.078 | 4 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n94646bStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 18.0% · Market 16.9%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 82.0% · Market 85.9%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n94646bStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -209Model 63.2% · Market 68.1%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +188Model 36.8% · Market 35.2%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-209 → +188 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n94646bStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 69.7% · Market 74.4%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 30.3% · Market 29.4%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n94646bStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +159Model 34.0% · Market 38.6%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -191Model 66.0% · Market 65.6%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+159 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n94646bStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 77.2% · Market 81.1%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 22.8% · Market 22.2%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n94646bStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 84.0% · Market 84.0%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 16.0% · Market 19.0%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n94646bStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 89.4% · Market 89.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 10.6% · Market 12.7%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n94646bStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 73.9% · Market 74.4%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 26.1% · Market 29.4%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n94646bStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 8.5 -137Model 53.2% · Market 58.2%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +124Model 46.8% · Market 45.2%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n8bf422Starts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8 -102Model 48.3% · Market 50.5%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 -110Model 51.1% · Market 52.4%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-102 → -110 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n8bf422Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals +159Model 44.4% · Market 38.6%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 9.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals +155Model 40.9% · Market 39.2%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.6%+159 → +155Logit 0.026 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n8bf422Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 27.8% · Market 28.4%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 72.2% · Market 75.4%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n8bf422Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 28.2% · Market 30.4%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 71.8% · Market 73.4%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n8bf422Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassUnder 7.5 -116Model 50.8% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 47.8% · Market 46.2%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -7.5%-116 → +119Logit -0.301 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n8bf422Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 44.4% · Market 49.3%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -116Model 55.6% · Market 54.2%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -116 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n8bf422Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassOver 9.5 +159Model 34.6% · Market 38.6%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 65.4% · Market 65.6%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+159 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n8bf422Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 17.2% · Market 18.0%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 82.8% · Market 84.9%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n8bf422Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 21.0% · Market 22.2%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 79.0% · Market 81.1%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n8bf422Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 11.5% · Market 12.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 88.5% · Market 89.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n8bf422Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassOver 6.5 -209Model 63.9% · Market 68.1%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +188Model 36.1% · Market 35.2%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-209 → +188 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nc2ae99Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassTexas Rangers +119Model 49.0% · Market 45.7%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSeattle Mariners -125Model 53.8% · Market 55.6%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -125 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nc2ae99Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 50.8% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -103Model 49.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → -103 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nc2ae99Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-5 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 89.1% · Market 88.7%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 10.9% · Market 13.8%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nc2ae99Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-5 | PassUnder 9.5 -219Model 64.1% · Market 69.6%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +198Model 35.9% · Market 33.6%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-219 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nc2ae99Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 77.9% · Market 82.1%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 22.1% · Market 21.1%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nc2ae99Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-5 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 82.7% · Market 85.9%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 17.3% · Market 16.9%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nc2ae99Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-5 | PassUnder 5.5 +218Model 26.8% · Market 31.4%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -263Model 73.2% · Market 72.5%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nc2ae99Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-5 | PassOver 10.5 +266Model 29.4% · Market 27.3%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -322Model 70.6% · Market 76.3%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nc2ae99Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-5 | PassOver 6.5 -183Model 65.2% · Market 64.7%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +152Model 34.8% · Market 39.7%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nc2ae99Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 16.4% · Market 20.1%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 83.6% · Market 84.0%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nc2ae99Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-5 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 48.1% · Market 50.7%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +134Model 45.8% · Market 43.2%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -7.5%-103 → +134Logit -0.303 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nc2ae99Starts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -110Model 52.0% · Market 52.4%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8 -105Model 49.2% · Market 51.2%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-110 → -105 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc519c6Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +129Model 47.5% · Market 43.7%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 6.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +150Model 45.7% · Market 40.0%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 9.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.7%+129 → +150Logit -0.151 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc519c6Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -116Model 51.7% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +109Model 48.1% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → +109 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc519c6Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassOver 8.5 -142Model 49.6% · Market 59.2%Edge -9.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +124Model 50.4% · Market 45.2%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 10.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc519c6Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassOver 6.5 -322Model 68.3% · Market 76.3%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +266Model 31.7% · Market 27.3%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc519c6Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassOver 10.5 +146Model 32.9% · Market 41.2%Edge -8.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -161Model 67.1% · Market 62.2%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 14.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc519c6Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassOver 13.5 +351Model 14.5% · Market 22.2%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -430Model 85.5% · Market 81.1%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 23.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc519c6Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -239Model 74.8% · Market 70.5%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 14.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +198Model 25.2% · Market 33.6%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc519c6Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassOver 3.5 -1684Model 90.4% · Market 94.4%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1241Model 9.6% · Market 7.5%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1684 → +1241 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc519c6Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassOver 5.5 -489Model 75.8% · Market 83.0%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +398Model 24.2% · Market 20.1%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc519c6Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +756Model 14.6% · Market 11.7%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -967Model 85.4% · Market 90.6%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc519c6Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassOver 7.5 -199Model 57.2% · Market 66.6%Edge -9.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +166Model 42.8% · Market 37.6%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 8.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc519c6Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 12.5 -322Model 79.9% · Market 76.3%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 15.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +266Model 20.1% · Market 27.3%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n40b145Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassKansas City Royals -107Model 49.1% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassArizona Diamondbacks -105Model 51.9% · Market 51.2%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -105 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n40b145Starts | TotalOpening line 9Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9 +100Model 52.1% · Market 50.0%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9 -118Model 52.2% · Market 54.1%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +4.1%+100 → -118Logit 0.166 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n40b145Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-3 | PassOver 3.5 -1684Model 90.2% · Market 94.4%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 9.8% · Market 8.5%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1684 → +1074 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n40b145Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-3 | PassUnder 8.5 +124Model 50.9% · Market 45.2%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 11.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -137Model 49.1% · Market 58.2%Edge -9.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -137 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n40b145Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-3 | PassUnder 11.5 -251Model 75.2% · Market 71.5%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 12.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +208Model 24.8% · Market 32.5%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n40b145Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -168Model 67.5% · Market 63.2%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 12.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +152Model 32.5% · Market 40.7%Edge -8.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n40b145Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-3 | PassUnder 12.5 -322Model 80.2% · Market 76.3%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 16.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +266Model 19.8% · Market 27.3%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n40b145Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-3 | PassOver 7.5 -199Model 56.8% · Market 66.6%Edge -9.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +166Model 43.2% · Market 37.6%Edge +5.6% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n40b145Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-3 | PassUnder 13.5 -489Model 85.8% · Market 83.0%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 16.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +398Model 14.2% · Market 20.1%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n40b145Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-3 | PassOver 4.5 -967Model 85.1% · Market 90.6%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +685Model 14.9% · Market 12.7%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n40b145Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-3 | PassUnder 9.5 -116Model 51.7% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +114Model 39.1% · Market 47.3%Edge -8.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → +114 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n40b145Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-3 | PassOver 5.5 -489Model 75.5% · Market 83.0%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +373Model 24.5% · Market 21.1%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n40b145Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-3 | PassOver 6.5 -340Model 67.9% · Market 77.3%Edge -9.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +280Model 32.1% · Market 26.3%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 7.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na65283Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -112Model 49.1% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 50.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → -103 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na65283Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassPittsburgh Pirates +114Model 46.2% · Market 46.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago White Sox -143Model 59.5% · Market 58.9%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -143 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na65283Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-3 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 57.5% · Market 58.2%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +129Model 42.5% · Market 44.7%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +129 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na65283Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-3 | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 25.4% · Market 25.3%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 74.6% · Market 78.3%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na65283Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-3 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 9.4% · Market 10.6%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 90.6% · Market 91.6%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na65283Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 14.4% · Market 15.9%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 85.6% · Market 86.8%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na65283Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-3 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 20.3% · Market 21.1%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 79.7% · Market 82.1%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na65283Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-3 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 68.6% · Market 69.5%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 31.4% · Market 34.6%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na65283Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-3 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 23.9% · Market 26.3%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 76.1% · Market 77.3%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na65283Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-3 | PassOver 9.5 +152Model 39.8% · Market 39.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 60.2% · Market 63.7%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na65283Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 66.8% · Market 71.5%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 33.2% · Market 33.6%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nd5abbfStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -107Model 49.7% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +109Model 50.1% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.8%-107 → +109Logit -0.154 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nd5abbfStarts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Lost3-4Paper stake $200 · P/L -$200 | Paper betChicago Cubs +170Model 43.9% · Market 37.0%Edge +6.9% · Full Kelly 10.9%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betChicago Cubs +170Model 43.9% · Market 37.0%Edge +6.9% · Full Kelly 10.9%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%+170 → +170Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nd5abbfStarts | TotalOpening line 7Decision tracked · no bet | Push3-4 | PassUnder 7 +100Model 48.2% · Market 50.0%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7 +110Model 37.9% · Market 47.6%Edge -9.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.4%+100 → +110Logit -0.095 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nd5abbfStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 10.5 -360Model 69.3% · Market 78.3%Edge -9.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +296Model 30.7% · Market 25.3%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 7.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nd5abbfStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 5.5 -228Model 74.3% · Market 69.5%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 15.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +189Model 25.7% · Market 34.6%Edge -8.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nd5abbfStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 4.5 -430Model 84.3% · Market 81.1%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 16.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +351Model 15.7% · Market 22.2%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nd5abbfStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 6.5 -148Model 66.4% · Market 60.2%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 16.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +134Model 33.6% · Market 43.2%Edge -9.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nd5abbfStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 9.5 -263Model 62.7% · Market 72.5%Edge -9.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +218Model 37.3% · Market 31.4%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 8.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nd5abbfStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 76.8% · Market 84.9%Edge -8.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 23.2% · Market 18.0%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nd5abbfStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 8.5 +152Model 47.2% · Market 40.2%Edge +7.0% · Full Kelly 12.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -168Model 52.8% · Market 63.2%Edge -10.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nd5abbfStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 89.6% · Market 86.8%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 21.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 10.4% · Market 15.9%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n1ec2d6Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -112Model 48.6% · Market 52.8%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +101Model 51.3% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → +101 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n1ec2d6Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAtlanta Braves -112Model 54.9% · Market 52.8%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAtlanta Braves -118Model 52.8% · Market 54.1%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.3%-112 → -118Logit 0.052 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n1ec2d6Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-1 | PassUnder 7.5 +134Model 47.9% · Market 42.7%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +134Model 47.9% · Market 43.2%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.5%+134 → +134Logit 0.019 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n1ec2d6Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-1 | PassUnder 9.5 -161Model 65.6% · Market 62.2%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 10.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +146Model 34.4% · Market 41.7%Edge -7.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n1ec2d6Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-1 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 82.6% · Market 87.8%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 17.4% · Market 14.8%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n1ec2d6Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-1 | PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 79.2% · Market 77.3%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 8.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +280Model 20.8% · Market 26.3%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n1ec2d6Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-1 | PassUnder 5.5 +296Model 28.1% · Market 25.3%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -360Model 71.9% · Market 78.3%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n1ec2d6Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-1 | PassOver 6.5 -251Model 63.7% · Market 71.5%Edge -7.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +208Model 36.3% · Market 32.5%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n1ec2d6Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-1 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 28.0% · Market 33.6%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 72.0% · Market 70.5%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n1ec2d6Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-1 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 16.2% · Market 21.1%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 83.8% · Market 82.1%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 9.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n1ec2d6Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-1 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 88.4% · Market 92.5%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 11.6% · Market 10.6%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n907980Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassColorado Rockies +208Model 38.5% · Market 32.5%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 8.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassColorado Rockies +275Model 33.2% · Market 26.7%Edge +6.5% · Full Kelly 8.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.8%+208 → +275Logit -0.279 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n907980Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -112Model 49.9% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.5% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.1%-112 → +101Logit -0.123 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n907980Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +165Model 31.3% · Market 38.2%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -183Model 68.7% · Market 65.1%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 11.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+165 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n907980Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 90.6% · Market 89.7%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 9.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 9.4% · Market 12.7%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n907980Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 25.7% · Market 22.2%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 74.3% · Market 81.1%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n907980Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -208Model 59.9% · Market 67.5%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 40.1% · Market 36.6%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n907980Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 79.4% · Market 85.9%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 20.6% · Market 16.9%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n907980Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 76.2% · Market 74.4%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 7.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 23.8% · Market 30.4%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n907980Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 66.5% · Market 75.4%Edge -8.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 33.5% · Market 28.4%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 7.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n907980Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 85.7% · Market 84.0%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 14.3% · Market 19.0%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n907980Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.1% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +134Model 50.0% · Market 43.7%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 12.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.2%+109 → +134Logit -0.168 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nce9999Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -112Model 49.4% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 48.9% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.1%-112 → +101Logit -0.123 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nce9999Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels +124Model 42.5% · Market 44.6%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBoston Red Sox -139Model 59.2% · Market 58.2%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -139 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nce9999Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +134Model 55.3% · Market 43.7%Edge +11.7% · Full Kelly 22.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -148Model 44.7% · Market 59.7%Edge -15.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nce9999Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 11.8% · Market 20.1%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -489Model 88.2% · Market 83.0%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 30.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nce9999Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -322Model 61.4% · Market 76.3%Edge -14.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +266Model 38.6% · Market 27.3%Edge +11.3% · Full Kelly 15.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nce9999Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 7.6% · Market 13.8%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 92.4% · Market 88.7%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 32.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nce9999Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 30.4% · Market 21.1%Edge +9.3% · Full Kelly 11.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 69.6% · Market 82.1%Edge -12.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nce9999Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 5.5 -263Model 79.9% · Market 72.5%Edge +7.4% · Full Kelly 26.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +218Model 20.1% · Market 31.4%Edge -11.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nce9999Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 12.5 -660Model 75.2% · Market 86.8%Edge -11.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +529Model 24.8% · Market 15.9%Edge +8.9% · Full Kelly 10.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nce9999Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 6.5 -175Model 73.1% · Market 64.2%Edge +9.0% · Full Kelly 26.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +158Model 26.9% · Market 39.2%Edge -12.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nce9999Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +181Model 45.4% · Market 35.6%Edge +9.8% · Full Kelly 15.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -218Model 54.6% · Market 68.6%Edge -14.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n49f107Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers -126Model 55.5% · Market 55.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers -133Model 58.4% · Market 57.1%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.3%-126 → -133Logit 0.054 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n49f107Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.2% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.6% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%-107 → +101Logit -0.078 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n49f107Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 59.2% · Market 63.6%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +152Model 40.8% · Market 40.2%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n49f107Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +198Model 30.6% · Market 33.6%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -239Model 69.4% · Market 70.5%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n49f107Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 79.0% · Market 84.0%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 21.0% · Market 19.0%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n49f107Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 13.9% · Market 16.9%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 86.1% · Market 85.9%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n49f107Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 58.4% · Market 58.2%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 41.6% · Market 45.2%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n49f107Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 26.2% · Market 24.2%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 73.8% · Market 79.2%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n49f107Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 34.1% · Market 32.5%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 65.9% · Market 71.5%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n49f107Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 76.8% · Market 76.3%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 23.2% · Market 27.3%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n49f107Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 90.9% · Market 91.6%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 9.1% · Market 10.6%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n49f107Starts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -105Model 49.6% · Market 51.2%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 -105Model 49.6% · Market 51.2%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-105 → -105Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4f5350Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMiami Marlins -121Model 53.7% · Market 54.8%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins -115Model 54.3% · Market 53.5%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.3%-121 → -115Logit -0.051 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4f5350Starts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -102Model 50.8% · Market 50.5%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 -105Model 51.1% · Market 51.2%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.7%-102 → -105Logit 0.029 | 3 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4f5350Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 48.9% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 44.5% · Market 49.3%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.5%+105 → +105Logit 0.019 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4f5350Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 21.0% · Market 24.2%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 79.0% · Market 79.2%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4f5350Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 17.2% · Market 16.9%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 82.8% · Market 85.9%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4f5350Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +159Model 34.7% · Market 38.6%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 65.3% · Market 65.6%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+159 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4f5350Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 11.4% · Market 11.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 88.6% · Market 91.6%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4f5350Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 72.2% · Market 76.3%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 27.8% · Market 27.3%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4f5350Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +188Model 36.0% · Market 35.2%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -209Model 64.0% · Market 68.1%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+188 → -209 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4f5350Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -116Model 50.6% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 52.4% · Market 57.3%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → -131 | 5 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4f5350Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 71.8% · Market 72.5%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 28.2% · Market 31.4%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nddec25Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -116Model 50.8% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.6% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.9%-116 → +105Logit -0.197 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nddec25Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassHouston Astros +119Model 45.0% · Market 45.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassPhiladelphia Phillies -139Model 57.6% · Market 58.2%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -139 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nddec25Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 9.4% · Market 9.6%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 90.6% · Market 92.5%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+945 → -1236 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nddec25Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 12.5 +351Model 20.3% · Market 22.2%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -430Model 79.7% · Market 81.1%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nddec25Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +218Model 31.4% · Market 31.4%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -276Model 68.6% · Market 73.4%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nddec25Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 4.5 -788Model 85.6% · Market 88.7%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +625Model 14.4% · Market 13.8%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nddec25Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 74.6% · Market 75.4%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 25.4% · Market 28.4%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nddec25Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -154Model 60.2% · Market 60.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +140Model 39.8% · Market 42.7%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-154 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nddec25Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 5.5 +313Model 23.9% · Market 24.2%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 76.1% · Market 79.2%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nddec25Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 33.2% · Market 36.6%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -208Model 66.8% · Market 67.5%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nddec25Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +140Model 42.5% · Market 42.2%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -155Model 57.5% · Market 61.2%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -155 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n35c7f1Starts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -105Model 49.9% · Market 51.2%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8 -110Model 50.3% · Market 52.4%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-105 → -110 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n35c7f1Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCleveland Guardians +101Model 51.2% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCleveland Guardians +100Model 51.1% · Market 50.0%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.3%+101 → +100Logit 0.010 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n35c7f1Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +114Model 41.9% · Market 47.3%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -126Model 58.1% · Market 55.8%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -126 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n35c7f1Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 59.5% · Market 65.1%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +166Model 40.5% · Market 37.7%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n35c7f1Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 66.2% · Market 73.4%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 33.8% · Market 30.4%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n35c7f1Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 50.4% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -126Model 49.5% · Market 56.2%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.4%-112 → -126Logit 0.137 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n35c7f1Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 90.8% · Market 91.6%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 9.2% · Market 10.6%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n35c7f1Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 76.6% · Market 76.3%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 23.4% · Market 27.3%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n35c7f1Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 26.0% · Market 23.2%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 74.0% · Market 80.2%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n35c7f1Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 69.2% · Market 68.6%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 30.8% · Market 35.6%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n35c7f1Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 14.1% · Market 15.9%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 85.9% · Market 86.8%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n35c7f1Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 79.2% · Market 84.9%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 20.8% · Market 18.0%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n328324Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.7% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.7% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+105 → +105Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n328324Starts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Won5-6Paper stake $200 · P/L $346 | Paper betAthletics +173Model 44.0% · Market 36.6%Edge +7.4% · Full Kelly 11.6%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betAthletics +173Model 44.0% · Market 36.6%Edge +7.4% · Full Kelly 11.6%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%+173 → +173Logit 0.000 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n328324Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassUnder 8.5 -116Model 50.6% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -137Model 51.1% · Market 57.8%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +4.1%-116 → -137Logit 0.167 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n328324Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 85.0% · Market 85.9%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 15.0% · Market 16.9%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n328324Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 75.3% · Market 76.3%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 24.7% · Market 27.3%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n328324Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 90.1% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 9.9% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n328324Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 80.3% · Market 84.0%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 19.7% · Market 19.0%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n328324Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 32.3% · Market 36.6%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 67.7% · Market 67.5%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n328324Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 67.7% · Market 70.5%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 32.3% · Market 33.6%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n328324Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 24.7% · Market 24.2%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 75.3% · Market 79.2%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n328324Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 39.0% · Market 37.1%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 61.0% · Market 66.1%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n857c5cStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds +134Model 41.1% · Market 42.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +152Model 39.5% · Market 39.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.1%+134 → +152Logit -0.126 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n857c5cStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 48.7% · Market 50.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 51.3% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -112 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n857c5cStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 48.4% · Market 45.2%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -142Model 51.6% · Market 59.2%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n857c5cStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassOver 9.5 +152Model 34.0% · Market 40.2%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 66.0% · Market 63.2%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 8.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n857c5cStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassOver 6.5 -239Model 63.4% · Market 70.5%Edge -7.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +198Model 36.6% · Market 33.6%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n857c5cStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 11.7% · Market 10.6%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 88.3% · Market 91.6%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n857c5cStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 84.1% · Market 83.0%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 15.9% · Market 20.1%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n857c5cStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 79.5% · Market 78.3%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 20.5% · Market 25.3%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n857c5cStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 72.4% · Market 70.5%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 27.6% · Market 33.6%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n857c5cStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 28.3% · Market 26.3%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 71.7% · Market 77.3%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n857c5cStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 17.6% · Market 15.9%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 82.4% · Market 86.8%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n27496fStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSt. Louis Cardinals -107Model 51.4% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +109Model 47.1% · Market 47.9%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.8%-107 → +109Logit -0.154 | 5 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n27496fStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +119Model 48.6% · Market 45.7%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 48.4% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.1%+119 → +105Logit 0.125 | 3 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n27496fStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 25.5% · Market 30.4%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 74.5% · Market 73.4%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n27496fStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 50.3% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 49.4% · Market 56.7%Edge -7.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -131 | 7 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n27496fStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassUnder 6.5 +129Model 48.8% · Market 43.7%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 9.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +188Model 38.7% · Market 35.2%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -8.5%+129 → +188Logit -0.358 | 4 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n27496fStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 69.8% · Market 75.4%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 30.2% · Market 28.4%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n27496fStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassUnder 9.5 -208Model 68.2% · Market 67.5%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 31.8% · Market 36.6%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n27496fStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 87.3% · Market 89.7%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 12.7% · Market 12.7%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n27496fStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 81.0% · Market 84.9%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 19.0% · Market 18.0%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n27496fStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 18.7% · Market 23.2%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 81.3% · Market 80.2%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 5.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n6093d4Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals +134Model 44.4% · Market 42.7%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals +166Model 39.2% · Market 37.6%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.1%+134 → +166Logit -0.215 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n6093d4Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 48.3% · Market 51.7%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 48.3% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%-107 → +105Logit -0.116 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n6093d4Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 31.4% · Market 37.1%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +166Model 31.4% · Market 37.7%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.6%+173 → +166Logit 0.024 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n6093d4Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 50.6% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 51.1% · Market 46.8%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 10.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%+109 → +119Logit -0.044 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n6093d4Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 74.7% · Market 72.5%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 8.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 25.3% · Market 31.4%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n6093d4Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 60.9% · Market 68.6%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 39.1% · Market 35.6%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n6093d4Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 19.2% · Market 16.9%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 80.8% · Market 85.9%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n6093d4Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 14.2% · Market 18.0%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 85.8% · Market 84.9%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n6093d4Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 69.5% · Market 75.4%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 30.5% · Market 28.4%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n6093d4Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 12.9% · Market 12.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 87.1% · Market 90.6%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n6093d4Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 81.4% · Market 80.2%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 18.6% · Market 23.2%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n228bc6Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.0% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 50.0% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+105 → +109Logit -0.037 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n228bc6Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers -121Model 56.5% · Market 54.8%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers -121Model 54.8% · Market 54.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-121 → -121Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n228bc6Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 16.1% · Market 19.0%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 83.9% · Market 84.0%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n228bc6Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassOver 9.5 +188Model 36.6% · Market 35.2%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -209Model 63.4% · Market 68.1%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+188 → -209 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n228bc6Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.1% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -137Model 53.5% · Market 58.2%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -137 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n228bc6Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 34.2% · Market 37.6%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 65.8% · Market 66.6%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n228bc6Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 10.7% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 89.3% · Market 90.6%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n228bc6Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 17.8% · Market 19.0%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 82.2% · Market 84.0%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n228bc6Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 26.3% · Market 30.4%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 73.7% · Market 74.4%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n228bc6Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 77.4% · Market 81.1%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 22.6% · Market 22.2%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n228bc6Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 30.0% · Market 29.4%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 70.0% · Market 74.4%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n311dd4Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -116Model 50.6% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.5% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → -103 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n311dd4Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMilwaukee Brewers -137Model 57.0% · Market 57.8%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMilwaukee Brewers -126Model 54.5% · Market 55.8%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.1%-137 → -126Logit -0.084 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n311dd4Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 7.5 -142Model 58.3% · Market 59.2%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +129Model 41.7% · Market 44.7%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +129 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n311dd4Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 20.9% · Market 20.1%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 79.1% · Market 83.0%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n311dd4Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 23.3% · Market 26.3%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 76.7% · Market 77.3%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n311dd4Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 86.0% · Market 86.8%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 14.0% · Market 15.9%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n311dd4Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 73.9% · Market 77.3%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +280Model 26.1% · Market 26.3%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n311dd4Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 9.2% · Market 10.6%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 90.8% · Market 91.6%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n311dd4Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 10.5 +189Model 34.0% · Market 34.6%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 66.0% · Market 70.5%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n311dd4Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 59.3% · Market 63.6%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 40.7% · Market 39.7%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n311dd4Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 6.5 -251Model 69.3% · Market 71.5%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +198Model 30.7% · Market 33.6%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nb963eaStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 -107Model 48.3% · Market 51.7%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +109Model 48.5% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.8%-107 → +109Logit -0.154 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nb963eaStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassArizona Diamondbacks -116Model 52.0% · Market 53.7%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassArizona Diamondbacks -107Model 52.5% · Market 51.7%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%-116 → -107Logit -0.081 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nb963eaStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassOver 10.5 +146Model 35.6% · Market 41.2%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -161Model 64.4% · Market 62.2%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 7.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nb963eaStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 8.6% · Market 8.5%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 91.4% · Market 93.5%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1074 → -1428 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nb963eaStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassOver 12.5 +266Model 22.3% · Market 27.3%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -322Model 77.7% · Market 76.3%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nb963eaStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassUnder 11.5 -239Model 72.4% · Market 70.5%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +198Model 27.6% · Market 33.6%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nb963eaStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassUnder 4.5 +685Model 13.2% · Market 12.7%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -967Model 86.8% · Market 90.6%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nb963eaStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassUnder 8.5 +129Model 47.7% · Market 44.2%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 7.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -142Model 52.3% · Market 59.2%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nb963eaStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassOver 13.5 +373Model 16.2% · Market 21.1%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -458Model 83.8% · Market 82.1%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 9.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nb963eaStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassOver 5.5 -489Model 77.8% · Market 83.0%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +398Model 22.2% · Market 20.1%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nb963eaStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassOver 6.5 -340Model 70.6% · Market 77.3%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +280Model 29.4% · Market 26.3%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nb963eaStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassOver 7.5 -199Model 59.8% · Market 66.6%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +166Model 40.2% · Market 37.6%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n23dcefStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCleveland Guardians -107Model 51.4% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCleveland Guardians +114Model 49.9% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.0%-107 → +114Logit -0.199 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n23dcefStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.6% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +119Model 50.4% · Market 45.7%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 8.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → +119 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n23dcefStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassOver 9.5 +229Model 39.4% · Market 31.0%Edge +8.3% · Full Kelly 12.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +250Model 39.4% · Market 29.0%Edge +10.4% · Full Kelly 15.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%+229 → +250Logit -0.097 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n23dcefStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.4% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +158Model 49.3% · Market 39.7%Edge +9.6% · Full Kelly 17.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -12.0%-107 → +158Logit -0.485 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n23dcefStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassOver 12.5 +625Model 19.9% · Market 13.8%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 7.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -788Model 80.1% · Market 88.7%Edge -8.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n23dcefStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 75.0% · Market 84.9%Edge -9.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 25.0% · Market 18.0%Edge +7.0% · Full Kelly 8.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n23dcefStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassOver 5.5 -228Model 75.8% · Market 69.5%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 20.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +189Model 24.2% · Market 34.6%Edge -10.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n23dcefStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassUnder 13.5 -1236Model 85.8% · Market 92.5%Edge -6.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +945Model 14.2% · Market 9.6%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +945 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n23dcefStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +129Model 31.8% · Market 43.7%Edge -11.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -154Model 68.2% · Market 60.6%Edge +7.6% · Full Kelly 19.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -154 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n23dcefStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassOver 4.5 -430Model 85.4% · Market 81.1%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 22.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +331Model 14.6% · Market 23.2%Edge -8.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n23dcefStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 90.4% · Market 86.8%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 27.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 9.6% · Market 15.9%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n23dcefStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -381Model 67.3% · Market 79.2%Edge -11.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +313Model 32.7% · Market 24.2%Edge +8.5% · Full Kelly 11.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n34c452Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels +140Model 40.0% · Market 41.7%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Angels +146Model 39.3% · Market 40.6%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+140 → +146Logit -0.042 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n34c452Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 50.3% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 49.8% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.1%-112 → -103Logit -0.084 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n34c452Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-5 | PassUnder 7.5 +129Model 36.9% · Market 44.2%Edge -7.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -148Model 63.1% · Market 59.7%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n34c452Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-5 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 45.9% · Market 39.2%Edge +6.7% · Full Kelly 11.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 54.1% · Market 63.7%Edge -9.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n34c452Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-5 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 74.8% · Market 83.0%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 25.2% · Market 20.1%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n34c452Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-5 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 39.1% · Market 33.6%Edge +5.6% · Full Kelly 8.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 60.9% · Market 70.5%Edge -9.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n34c452Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 69.1% · Market 79.2%Edge -10.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 30.9% · Market 24.2%Edge +6.6% · Full Kelly 8.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n34c452Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-5 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 88.4% · Market 85.9%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 17.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 11.6% · Market 16.9%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n34c452Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-5 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 92.5% · Market 91.6%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 11.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 7.5% · Market 11.7%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n34c452Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-5 | PassUnder 6.5 +198Model 26.5% · Market 33.6%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -239Model 73.5% · Market 70.5%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 10.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n34c452Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-5 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 80.2% · Market 77.3%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 12.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 19.8% · Market 26.3%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66na4a561Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 48.5% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.1% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+105 → +101Logit 0.039 | 3 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66na4a561Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMiami Marlins -126Model 56.5% · Market 55.8%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins -142Model 58.5% · Market 58.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.9%-126 → -142Logit 0.120 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66na4a561Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-4 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 15.6% · Market 18.0%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 84.4% · Market 84.9%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66na4a561Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-4 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 69.1% · Market 72.5%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 30.9% · Market 31.4%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66na4a561Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-4 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 66.6% · Market 68.6%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 33.4% · Market 35.6%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66na4a561Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-4 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 10.3% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 89.7% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66na4a561Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-4 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 23.4% · Market 24.2%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 76.6% · Market 79.2%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66na4a561Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-4 | PassOver 9.5 +165Model 37.4% · Market 38.2%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 62.6% · Market 65.1%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+165 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66na4a561Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-4 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.4% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 55.2% · Market 58.2%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -137 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66na4a561Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-4 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 74.4% · Market 76.3%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 25.6% · Market 27.3%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66ne40977Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.4% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 50.1% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+105 → +101Logit 0.039 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66ne40977Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAtlanta Braves +129Model 43.5% · Market 43.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAtlanta Braves +152Model 44.0% · Market 39.7%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 7.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%+129 → +152Logit -0.164 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66ne40977Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 35.2% · Market 37.6%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 64.8% · Market 66.6%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66ne40977Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 16.7% · Market 16.9%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 83.3% · Market 85.9%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66ne40977Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-1 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 48.6% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -131Model 54.6% · Market 57.3%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -131 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66ne40977Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 11.1% · Market 12.7%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 88.9% · Market 90.6%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66ne40977Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-1 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 29.0% · Market 29.4%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 71.0% · Market 74.4%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66ne40977Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 78.3% · Market 81.1%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 21.7% · Market 22.2%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66ne40977Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-1 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 17.0% · Market 16.9%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 83.0% · Market 85.9%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66ne40977Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-1 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 35.5% · Market 36.6%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 64.5% · Market 66.6%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66ne40977Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 27.1% · Market 28.4%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 72.9% · Market 75.4%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66na5dad7Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals +181Model 41.1% · Market 35.6%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals +159Model 36.6% · Market 38.6%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.0%+181 → +159Logit 0.129 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66na5dad7Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 48.8% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 51.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -107 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66na5dad7Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-7 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 49.8% · Market 45.2%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 9.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 49.8% · Market 44.6%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 9.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%+124 → +124Logit -0.021 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66na5dad7Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-7 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 67.4% · Market 64.6%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 10.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 32.6% · Market 39.2%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66na5dad7Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-7 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 87.7% · Market 90.6%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 12.3% · Market 11.7%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66na5dad7Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-7 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 29.5% · Market 27.3%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 70.5% · Market 76.3%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66na5dad7Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-7 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 15.0% · Market 20.1%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 85.0% · Market 83.0%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 11.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66na5dad7Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-7 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 37.9% · Market 34.6%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 5.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 62.1% · Market 69.5%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66na5dad7Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-7 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 81.6% · Market 85.9%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 18.4% · Market 16.9%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66na5dad7Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-7 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 73.6% · Market 71.5%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 7.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 26.4% · Market 32.5%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66na5dad7Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-7 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 19.5% · Market 24.2%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 80.5% · Market 79.2%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n80381eStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago White Sox -142Model 56.7% · Market 58.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMinnesota Twins +124Model 42.7% · Market 44.6%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +124 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n80381eStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 50.3% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -107 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n80381eStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-10 | PassUnder 9.5 -161Model 58.4% · Market 62.2%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -161Model 58.4% · Market 61.7%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%-161 → -161Logit -0.021 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n80381eStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-10 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 78.3% · Market 82.1%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 21.7% · Market 21.1%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n80381eStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-10 | PassUnder 6.5 +218Model 29.9% · Market 31.4%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -263Model 70.1% · Market 72.5%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n80381eStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-10 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 8.8% · Market 9.6%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 91.2% · Market 92.5%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+945 → -1236 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n80381eStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-10 | PassUnder 10.5 -228Model 65.1% · Market 69.5%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +189Model 34.9% · Market 34.6%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n80381eStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-10 | PassOver 7.5 -148Model 59.2% · Market 60.2%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +134Model 40.8% · Market 43.2%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n80381eStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-10 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 86.5% · Market 87.8%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 13.5% · Market 14.8%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n80381eStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-10 | PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 73.0% · Market 77.3%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +280Model 27.0% · Market 26.3%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n80381eStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-10 | PassUnder 5.5 +296Model 22.6% · Market 25.3%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -360Model 77.4% · Market 78.3%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n82bc55Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -116Model 51.0% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +114Model 49.9% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → +114 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n82bc55Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +173Model 40.6% · Market 36.6%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +166Model 35.9% · Market 37.6%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+173 → +166Logit 0.041 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n82bc55Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 5.5 -228Model 73.1% · Market 69.5%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 11.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +181Model 26.9% · Market 35.6%Edge -8.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n82bc55Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 8.5 -175Model 54.3% · Market 64.2%Edge -9.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +158Model 45.7% · Market 39.2%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 11.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n82bc55Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 6.5 -142Model 65.1% · Market 59.2%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 15.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +129Model 34.9% · Market 44.2%Edge -9.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +129 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n82bc55Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -381Model 70.5% · Market 79.2%Edge -8.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +313Model 29.5% · Market 24.2%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n82bc55Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -276Model 64.1% · Market 73.4%Edge -9.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +229Model 35.9% · Market 30.4%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 7.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n82bc55Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 22.2% · Market 18.0%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 5.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 77.8% · Market 84.9%Edge -7.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n82bc55Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +490Model 11.0% · Market 16.9%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -609Model 89.0% · Market 85.9%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 22.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n82bc55Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 4.5 -404Model 83.5% · Market 80.2%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 16.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +331Model 16.5% · Market 23.2%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nb11fa5Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Yankees -112Model 51.2% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Yankees -103Model 50.4% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.1%-112 → -103Logit -0.084 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nb11fa5Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +109Model 49.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +119Model 48.5% · Market 45.7%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.2%+109 → +119Logit -0.088 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nb11fa5Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 7.5 +105Model 49.1% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -142Model 46.5% · Market 59.2%Edge -12.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -142 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nb11fa5Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 4.5 -381Model 83.4% · Market 79.2%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 20.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +313Model 16.6% · Market 24.2%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nb11fa5Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 11.5 +529Model 21.9% · Market 15.9%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 7.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -660Model 78.1% · Market 86.8%Edge -8.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nb11fa5Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 5.5 -191Model 73.0% · Market 65.6%Edge +7.4% · Full Kelly 21.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +159Model 27.0% · Market 38.6%Edge -11.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +159 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nb11fa5Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 10.5 -430Model 70.7% · Market 81.1%Edge -10.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +351Model 29.3% · Market 22.2%Edge +7.1% · Full Kelly 9.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nb11fa5Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassUnder 3.5 +456Model 11.0% · Market 18.0%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -609Model 89.0% · Market 85.9%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 21.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nb11fa5Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 8.5 -200Model 54.4% · Market 67.1%Edge -12.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +180Model 45.6% · Market 36.2%Edge +9.5% · Full Kelly 15.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nb11fa5Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 9.5 +266Model 35.8% · Market 27.3%Edge +8.4% · Full Kelly 11.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -322Model 64.2% · Market 76.3%Edge -12.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66ne38618Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 11.5 -103Model 48.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +114Model 48.5% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%-103 → +114Logit -0.161 | 4 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66ne38618Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSt. Louis Cardinals -126Model 54.1% · Market 55.8%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassColorado Rockies +114Model 46.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-126 → +114 | 4 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66ne38618Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-8 | PassOver 9.5 -183Model 57.8% · Market 64.7%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 +152Model 42.2% · Market 39.7%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66ne38618Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-8 | PassUnder 6.5 +529Model 18.4% · Market 15.9%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -660Model 81.6% · Market 86.8%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66ne38618Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-8 | PassOver 7.5 -381Model 73.2% · Market 79.2%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +296Model 26.8% · Market 25.3%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66ne38618Starts | TotalOpening line 15.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-8 | PassUnder 15.5 -430Model 81.5% · Market 81.1%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 15.5 +351Model 18.5% · Market 22.2%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66ne38618Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-8 | PassUnder 13.5 -239Model 71.3% · Market 70.5%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +198Model 28.7% · Market 33.6%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66ne38618Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-8 | PassOver 8.5 -263Model 67.0% · Market 72.5%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +218Model 33.0% · Market 31.4%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66ne38618Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-8 | PassOver 5.5 -967Model 86.7% · Market 90.6%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +756Model 13.3% · Market 11.7%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66ne38618Starts | TotalOpening line 14.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-8 | PassOver 14.5 +252Model 23.9% · Market 28.4%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 14.5 -322Model 76.1% · Market 76.3%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66ne38618Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-8 | PassUnder 10.5 +101Model 50.3% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 +119Model 48.8% · Market 46.2%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.6%+101 → +119Logit -0.142 | 6 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66ne38618Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-8 | PassUnder 12.5 -161Model 63.6% · Market 62.2%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +146Model 36.4% · Market 41.2%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0ba481Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassTexas Rangers -103Model 50.8% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTampa Bay Rays -107Model 50.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -107 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0ba481Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -112Model 51.1% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -112Model 51.1% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-112 → -112Logit 0.000 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0ba481Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-8 | PassUnder 6.5 +152Model 26.9% · Market 40.2%Edge -13.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -175Model 73.1% · Market 64.2%Edge +8.9% · Full Kelly 26.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0ba481Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-8 | PassOver 8.5 +134Model 55.4% · Market 43.2%Edge +12.2% · Full Kelly 22.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -142Model 44.6% · Market 59.7%Edge -15.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0ba481Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-8 | PassOver 4.5 -458Model 88.2% · Market 82.1%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 33.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +373Model 11.8% · Market 21.1%Edge -9.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0ba481Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-8 | PassUnder 9.5 -239Model 54.6% · Market 70.5%Edge -15.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +189Model 45.4% · Market 34.6%Edge +10.8% · Full Kelly 16.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0ba481Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-8 | PassOver 10.5 +266Model 38.7% · Market 27.3%Edge +11.3% · Full Kelly 15.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -340Model 61.3% · Market 77.3%Edge -15.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0ba481Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-8 | PassOver 5.5 -263Model 79.8% · Market 72.5%Edge +7.3% · Full Kelly 26.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +208Model 20.2% · Market 32.5%Edge -12.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0ba481Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-8 | PassUnder 11.5 -489Model 69.6% · Market 83.0%Edge -13.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +398Model 30.4% · Market 20.1%Edge +10.3% · Full Kelly 12.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0ba481Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-8 | PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 7.7% · Market 14.8%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -719Model 92.3% · Market 87.8%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 37.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nb029ecStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassArizona Diamondbacks +101Model 49.0% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassArizona Diamondbacks -107Model 51.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.9%+101 → -107Logit 0.078 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nb029ecStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Pending3-2 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.2% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 49.9% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%+109 → +114Logit -0.045 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nb029ecStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.7% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 39.4% · Market 46.8%Edge -7.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%-103 → +119Logit -0.160 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nb029ecStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +180Model 28.7% · Market 36.2%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 71.3% · Market 67.6%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 11.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+180 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nb029ecStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 36.4% · Market 30.4%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 63.6% · Market 73.4%Edge -9.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nb029ecStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 28.3% · Market 23.2%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 71.7% · Market 80.2%Edge -8.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nb029ecStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 21.7% · Market 29.4%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 78.3% · Market 75.4%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 11.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nb029ecStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassOver 9.5 +166Model 43.1% · Market 37.6%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 8.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -199Model 56.9% · Market 66.6%Edge -9.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nb029ecStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 91.6% · Market 89.7%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 18.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 8.4% · Market 12.7%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nb029ecStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 87.1% · Market 84.9%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 14.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 12.9% · Market 18.0%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd6c0ebStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassToronto Blue Jays -107Model 51.6% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassToronto Blue Jays -121Model 53.0% · Market 54.8%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.1%-107 → -121Logit 0.123 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd6c0ebStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -112Model 51.8% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +101Model 48.2% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → +101 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd6c0ebStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +296Model 30.9% · Market 25.3%Edge +5.6% · Full Kelly 7.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -360Model 69.1% · Market 78.3%Edge -9.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd6c0ebStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-6 | PassUnder 13.5 -430Model 85.1% · Market 81.1%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 20.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +351Model 14.9% · Market 22.2%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd6c0ebStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-6 | PassOver 7.5 -208Model 58.1% · Market 67.5%Edge -9.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +173Model 41.9% · Market 36.6%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 8.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd6c0ebStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +841Model 14.1% · Market 10.6%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -1087Model 85.9% · Market 91.6%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd6c0ebStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-6 | PassOver 8.5 -154Model 50.4% · Market 60.7%Edge -10.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +140Model 49.6% · Market 42.7%Edge +6.9% · Full Kelly 13.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-154 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd6c0ebStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-6 | PassUnder 5.5 +425Model 23.5% · Market 19.0%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -525Model 76.5% · Market 84.0%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd6c0ebStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -239Model 74.1% · Market 70.5%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 12.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +189Model 25.9% · Market 34.6%Edge -8.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd6c0ebStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-6 | PassUnder 12.5 -290Model 79.3% · Market 74.4%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 19.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +240Model 20.7% · Market 29.4%Edge -8.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd6c0ebStarts | TotalOpening line 14.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-6 | PassOver 14.5 +456Model 11.5% · Market 18.0%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 14.5 -609Model 88.5% · Market 85.9%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 18.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nd6c0ebStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-6 | PassOver 10.5 -103Model 47.3% · Market 50.7%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +140Model 33.7% · Market 42.2%Edge -8.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -8.5%-103 → +140Logit -0.344 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n898bb9Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +124Model 49.1% · Market 44.6%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 8.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +109Model 48.6% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.2%+124 → +109Logit 0.129 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n898bb9Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers +119Model 42.7% · Market 45.7%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers +140Model 46.1% · Market 41.7%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 7.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%+119 → +140Logit -0.162 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n898bb9Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +296Model 16.7% · Market 25.3%Edge -8.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -360Model 83.3% · Market 78.3%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 23.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n898bb9Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 7.5 -112Model 50.6% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +124Model 53.1% · Market 44.6%Edge +8.5% · Full Kelly 15.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → +124 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n898bb9Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 8.5 +166Model 45.3% · Market 37.7%Edge +7.6% · Full Kelly 12.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -183Model 54.7% · Market 65.6%Edge -10.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n898bb9Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassUnder 3.5 +456Model 11.1% · Market 18.0%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -564Model 88.9% · Market 84.9%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 26.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n898bb9Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -430Model 71.0% · Market 81.1%Edge -10.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +351Model 29.0% · Market 22.2%Edge +6.8% · Full Kelly 8.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n898bb9Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 78.3% · Market 84.9%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 21.7% · Market 18.0%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n898bb9Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 9.5 -322Model 64.6% · Market 76.3%Edge -11.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +266Model 35.4% · Market 27.3%Edge +8.1% · Full Kelly 11.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n898bb9Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 5.5 -199Model 72.8% · Market 66.6%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 18.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +166Model 27.2% · Market 37.6%Edge -10.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nbc4940Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.5% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.9% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+105 → +105Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nbc4940Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Mets -142Model 56.9% · Market 58.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants +140Model 43.1% · Market 41.7%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +140 | 5 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nbc4940Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassUnder 10.5 -265Model 69.4% · Market 73.0%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 30.6% · Market 30.5%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-265 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nbc4940Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 25.8% · Market 28.4%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 74.2% · Market 75.4%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nbc4940Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 33.7% · Market 36.6%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 66.3% · Market 67.5%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nbc4940Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 18.2% · Market 20.1%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 81.8% · Market 83.0%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nbc4940Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 13.5 +625Model 12.9% · Market 13.8%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -788Model 87.1% · Market 88.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nbc4940Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 51.9% · Market 51.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +119Model 47.1% · Market 46.2%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → +119 | 5 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nbc4940Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 37.2% · Market 37.1%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 62.8% · Market 66.1%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nbc4940Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 84.2% · Market 84.9%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 15.8% · Market 19.0%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nbc4940Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 76.9% · Market 81.1%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 23.1% · Market 23.2%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nbc4940Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 10.4% · Market 12.7%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 89.6% · Market 90.6%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66ne1673aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 48.5% · Market 50.7%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 48.7% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%-103 → +101Logit -0.040 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66ne1673aStarts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Won3-10Paper stake $200 · P/L $238 | Paper betMiami Marlins +119Model 52.1% · Market 45.7%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 11.8%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betMiami Marlins +119Model 52.1% · Market 45.7%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 11.8%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%+119 → +119Logit 0.000 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66ne1673aStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-10 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 34.2% · Market 39.2%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 65.8% · Market 64.2%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66ne1673aStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-10 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 88.3% · Market 90.6%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 11.7% · Market 11.7%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66ne1673aStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-10 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 79.4% · Market 79.2%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 20.6% · Market 24.2%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66ne1673aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-10 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 63.5% · Market 68.6%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 36.5% · Market 35.6%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66ne1673aStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-10 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 16.0% · Market 20.1%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 84.0% · Market 83.0%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66ne1673aStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-10 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 17.5% · Market 16.9%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 82.5% · Market 85.9%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66ne1673aStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-10 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 27.8% · Market 33.6%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 72.2% · Market 70.5%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66ne1673aStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-10 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 28.2% · Market 27.3%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 71.8% · Market 76.3%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66ne1673aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-10 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 51.9% · Market 57.3%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 48.1% · Market 46.2%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +119 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n1e37c2Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -116Model 50.0% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +109Model 50.4% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.9%-116 → +109Logit -0.234 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n1e37c2Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels +166Model 41.6% · Market 37.6%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Angels +146Model 40.2% · Market 40.6%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.1%+166 → +146Logit 0.129 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n1e37c2Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 6.5 +140Model 31.4% · Market 43.2%Edge -11.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -148Model 68.6% · Market 60.2%Edge +8.4% · Full Kelly 22.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n1e37c2Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-1 | PassOver 4.5 -381Model 85.6% · Market 79.2%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 30.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +313Model 14.4% · Market 24.2%Edge -9.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n1e37c2Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-1 | PassOver 8.5 +158Model 49.8% · Market 39.2%Edge +10.6% · Full Kelly 18.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -175Model 50.2% · Market 64.2%Edge -13.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n1e37c2Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-1 | PassOver 9.5 +218Model 39.8% · Market 31.4%Edge +8.4% · Full Kelly 12.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -263Model 60.2% · Market 72.5%Edge -12.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n1e37c2Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 3.5 +490Model 9.4% · Market 16.9%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -609Model 90.6% · Market 85.9%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 33.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n1e37c2Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 74.6% · Market 84.9%Edge -10.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 25.4% · Market 18.0%Edge +7.5% · Full Kelly 9.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n1e37c2Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 10.5 -381Model 66.8% · Market 79.2%Edge -12.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +313Model 33.2% · Market 24.2%Edge +9.0% · Full Kelly 11.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n1e37c2Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 5.5 +181Model 23.9% · Market 35.6%Edge -11.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -218Model 76.1% · Market 68.6%Edge +7.6% · Full Kelly 24.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n75890dStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 49.8% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +109Model 50.0% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → +109 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n75890dStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBaltimore Orioles -107Model 52.2% · Market 51.7%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBaltimore Orioles +109Model 50.0% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.8%-107 → +109Logit -0.154 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n75890dStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-1 | PassOver 9.5 +229Model 36.2% · Market 30.5%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 8.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +238Model 36.2% · Market 30.0%Edge +6.2% · Full Kelly 9.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%+229 → +238Logit -0.026 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n75890dStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-1 | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.2% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +158Model 46.1% · Market 39.2%Edge +6.9% · Full Kelly 12.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -12.5%-107 → +158Logit -0.506 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n75890dStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-1 | PassOver 5.5 -239Model 73.4% · Market 70.5%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 9.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +198Model 26.6% · Market 33.6%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n75890dStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-1 | PassUnder 10.5 -381Model 70.3% · Market 79.2%Edge -8.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +313Model 29.7% · Market 24.2%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 7.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n75890dStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-1 | PassOver 6.5 -161Model 65.4% · Market 61.7%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 9.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +134Model 34.6% · Market 42.7%Edge -8.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n75890dStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-1 | PassOver 4.5 -430Model 83.7% · Market 81.1%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 13.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +331Model 16.3% · Market 23.2%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n75890dStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-1 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 10.8% · Market 15.9%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 89.2% · Market 86.8%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 17.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n75890dStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-1 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 77.7% · Market 84.9%Edge -7.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 22.3% · Market 18.0%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n75890dStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-1 | PassOver 12.5 +625Model 17.5% · Market 13.8%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -788Model 82.5% · Market 88.7%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n877a7bStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassPhiladelphia Phillies -103Model 53.5% · Market 50.7%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassPhiladelphia Phillies -107Model 53.1% · Market 51.7%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%-103 → -107Logit 0.038 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n877a7bStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.1% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%-103 → +109Logit -0.116 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n877a7bStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 32.2% · Market 31.4%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 67.8% · Market 72.5%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n877a7bStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 19.5% · Market 19.0%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 80.5% · Market 84.0%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n877a7bStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 61.1% · Market 65.1%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +165Model 38.9% · Market 38.2%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n877a7bStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 56.6% · Market 57.3%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -131 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n877a7bStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 9.8% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 90.2% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n877a7bStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 75.4% · Market 76.3%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 24.6% · Market 28.4%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n877a7bStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 85.1% · Market 85.9%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 14.9% · Market 16.9%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n877a7bStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 67.8% · Market 67.5%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 32.2% · Market 36.6%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n877a7bStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 75.4% · Market 80.2%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 24.6% · Market 23.2%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66na27d68Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 50.0% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 50.0% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -103 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66na27d68Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds +129Model 45.1% · Market 43.7%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +124Model 43.5% · Market 44.6%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+129 → +124Logit 0.039 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66na27d68Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-12 | PassOver 10.5 +188Model 36.9% · Market 35.2%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +189Model 37.2% · Market 34.7%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%+188 → +189Logit -0.022 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66na27d68Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-12 | PassOver 9.5 +114Model 48.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 56.1% · Market 62.7%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -168 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66na27d68Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-12 | PassOver 13.5 +490Model 17.2% · Market 16.9%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -609Model 82.8% · Market 85.9%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66na27d68Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-12 | PassUnder 11.5 -322Model 71.2% · Market 76.3%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +266Model 28.8% · Market 27.3%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66na27d68Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-12 | PassOver 6.5 -263Model 71.6% · Market 72.5%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +218Model 28.4% · Market 31.4%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66na27d68Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-12 | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 78.6% · Market 79.2%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +313Model 21.4% · Market 24.2%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66na27d68Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-12 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 91.8% · Market 92.5%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 8.2% · Market 10.6%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66na27d68Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-12 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 87.3% · Market 87.8%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 12.7% · Market 14.8%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66na27d68Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-12 | PassUnder 7.5 +129Model 38.9% · Market 43.7%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -154Model 61.1% · Market 60.6%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -154 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66na27d68Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-12 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 76.6% · Market 82.1%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 23.4% · Market 21.1%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n1473d5Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 50.8% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -107Model 49.7% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → -107 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n1473d5Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +166Model 40.1% · Market 37.6%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +198Model 34.9% · Market 33.6%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%+166 → +198Logit -0.176 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n1473d5Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 8.5 -148Model 56.3% · Market 59.7%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -148Model 56.3% · Market 60.2%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.5%-148 → -148Logit 0.020 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n1473d5Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 84.0% · Market 84.9%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 16.0% · Market 18.0%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n1473d5Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 82.4% · Market 84.0%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 17.6% · Market 19.0%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n1473d5Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 20.6% · Market 22.2%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 79.4% · Market 81.1%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n1473d5Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassOver 9.5 +198Model 34.0% · Market 33.6%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -239Model 66.0% · Market 70.5%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n1473d5Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 5.5 +218Model 28.3% · Market 31.4%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 71.7% · Market 73.4%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n1473d5Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 72.3% · Market 75.4%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 27.7% · Market 28.4%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n1473d5Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +165Model 36.6% · Market 38.2%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -183Model 63.4% · Market 65.1%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+165 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n1473d5Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 88.3% · Market 88.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 11.7% · Market 13.8%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n663507Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +119Model 48.8% · Market 45.7%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +114Model 48.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.1%+119 → +114Logit 0.043 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n663507Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals +240Model 39.7% · Market 29.4%Edge +10.3% · Full Kelly 14.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals +159Model 38.5% · Market 38.6%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +9.2%+240 → +159Logit 0.412 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n663507Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 11.9% · Market 14.8%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -719Model 88.1% · Market 87.8%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n663507Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -279Model 66.4% · Market 74.0%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +250Model 33.6% · Market 29.0%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 7.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-279 → +250 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n663507Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassOver 12.5 +625Model 15.7% · Market 13.8%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -788Model 84.3% · Market 88.7%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n663507Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -404Model 72.7% · Market 80.2%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +331Model 27.3% · Market 23.2%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n663507Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 4.5 -404Model 82.2% · Market 80.2%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 10.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +313Model 17.8% · Market 24.2%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n663507Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 20.3% · Market 18.0%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 79.7% · Market 84.9%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n663507Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 8.5 +165Model 43.3% · Market 38.2%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -183Model 56.7% · Market 65.1%Edge -8.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+165 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n663507Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 50.6% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -131Model 48.8% · Market 57.7%Edge -8.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +6.0%-107 → -131Logit 0.243 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n663507Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 5.5 -208Model 71.4% · Market 67.5%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 11.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +173Model 28.6% · Market 36.6%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n66b052Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -103Model 50.3% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 +105Model 50.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%-103 → +105Logit -0.078 | 5 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n66b052Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassColorado Rockies +105Model 46.1% · Market 48.8%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals -126Model 54.4% · Market 55.8%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -126 | 4 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n66b052Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-10 | PassUnder 8.5 +208Model 31.7% · Market 32.5%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -251Model 68.3% · Market 71.5%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n66b052Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-10 | PassUnder 11.5 -137Model 55.9% · Market 58.7%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +124Model 44.1% · Market 44.6%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n66b052Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-10 | PassOver 6.5 -564Model 82.6% · Market 84.9%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +456Model 17.4% · Market 18.0%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n66b052Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-10 | PassOver 5.5 -869Model 87.4% · Market 89.7%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +685Model 12.6% · Market 12.7%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n66b052Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-10 | PassUnder 9.5 +134Model 40.8% · Market 42.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 -161Model 59.2% · Market 61.7%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n66b052Starts | TotalOpening line 14.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-10 | PassUnder 14.5 -340Model 74.9% · Market 77.3%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 14.5 +280Model 25.1% · Market 26.3%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n66b052Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-10 | PassUnder 12.5 -183Model 62.1% · Market 65.1%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +165Model 37.9% · Market 38.2%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n66b052Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-10 | PassUnder 13.5 -263Model 69.9% · Market 72.5%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +218Model 30.1% · Market 31.4%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n66b052Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-10 | PassOver 7.5 -340Model 74.4% · Market 77.3%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +280Model 25.6% · Market 26.3%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n66b052Starts | TotalOpening line 15.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-10 | PassUnder 15.5 -489Model 80.4% · Market 83.0%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 15.5 +398Model 19.6% · Market 20.1%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n0e1a5bStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 50.9% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 50.6% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%-107 → +101Logit -0.078 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n0e1a5bStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Diego Padres -107Model 52.1% · Market 51.7%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Yankees +109Model 45.8% · Market 47.9%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → +109 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n0e1a5bStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-1 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 81.0% · Market 84.0%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 19.0% · Market 20.1%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n0e1a5bStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-1 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 69.8% · Market 73.4%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 30.2% · Market 30.4%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n0e1a5bStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 12.7% · Market 12.7%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 87.3% · Market 89.7%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n0e1a5bStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 25.5% · Market 28.4%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 74.5% · Market 75.4%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n0e1a5bStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassOver 8.5 +129Model 41.4% · Market 44.7%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -142Model 58.6% · Market 59.2%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n0e1a5bStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassOver 9.5 +181Model 31.8% · Market 35.6%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -218Model 68.2% · Market 68.6%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n0e1a5bStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-1 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 81.3% · Market 82.1%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 18.7% · Market 22.2%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n0e1a5bStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassOver 6.5 -183Model 61.3% · Market 65.1%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +165Model 38.7% · Market 38.2%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nf085dbStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassArizona Diamondbacks -107Model 49.1% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassArizona Diamondbacks -112Model 51.4% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.1%-107 → -112Logit 0.046 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nf085dbStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 50.8% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.5% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%-112 → +105Logit -0.162 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nf085dbStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 25.9% · Market 28.4%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 74.1% · Market 75.4%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nf085dbStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassOver 9.5 +134Model 40.5% · Market 43.2%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -148Model 59.5% · Market 60.2%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nf085dbStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 14.1% · Market 14.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 85.9% · Market 87.8%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nf085dbStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassUnder 5.5 +313Model 23.5% · Market 24.2%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 76.5% · Market 79.2%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nf085dbStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 90.7% · Market 92.5%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 9.3% · Market 10.6%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nf085dbStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassUnder 7.5 +140Model 41.9% · Market 42.2%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -155Model 58.1% · Market 61.2%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -155 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nf085dbStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -208Model 66.2% · Market 67.5%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 33.8% · Market 36.6%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nf085dbStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassUnder 6.5 +229Model 30.9% · Market 30.4%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -276Model 69.1% · Market 73.4%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nf085dbStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassOver 12.5 +331Model 20.8% · Market 23.2%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -404Model 79.2% · Market 80.2%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n06459dStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.4% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.5% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%-103 → +101Logit -0.040 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n06459dStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago White Sox -126Model 55.7% · Market 55.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago White Sox -126Model 57.5% · Market 55.8%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-126 → -126Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n06459dStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-4 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 31.1% · Market 35.6%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 68.9% · Market 68.6%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n06459dStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-4 | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 25.7% · Market 25.3%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 74.3% · Market 78.3%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n06459dStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-4 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 40.1% · Market 39.2%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 59.9% · Market 64.2%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n06459dStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-4 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 20.5% · Market 20.1%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 79.5% · Market 83.0%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n06459dStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-4 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 9.3% · Market 11.7%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 90.7% · Market 91.6%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n06459dStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-4 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 66.5% · Market 71.5%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 33.5% · Market 32.5%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n06459dStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-4 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 85.8% · Market 86.8%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 14.2% · Market 16.9%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n06459dStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-4 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 57.7% · Market 57.3%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 42.3% · Market 46.2%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +119 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n06459dStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-4 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 76.3% · Market 76.3%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 23.7% · Market 27.3%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66na7a0c0Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -112Model 51.5% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -107Model 51.2% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%-112 → -107Logit -0.046 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66na7a0c0Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassToronto Blue Jays -103Model 50.8% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassToronto Blue Jays -112Model 52.9% · Market 52.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.1%-103 → -112Logit 0.084 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66na7a0c0Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassUnder 5.5 +425Model 20.6% · Market 19.0%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -525Model 79.4% · Market 84.0%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66na7a0c0Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassOver 10.5 +129Model 38.0% · Market 43.7%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -148Model 62.0% · Market 60.2%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66na7a0c0Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassOver 8.5 -148Model 54.7% · Market 60.7%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +134Model 45.3% · Market 42.7%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66na7a0c0Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassOver 13.5 +351Model 17.9% · Market 22.2%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -430Model 82.1% · Market 81.1%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66na7a0c0Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassUnder 12.5 -306Model 75.7% · Market 75.4%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +240Model 24.3% · Market 29.4%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66na7a0c0Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassOver 6.5 -360Model 72.6% · Market 78.3%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +296Model 27.4% · Market 25.3%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66na7a0c0Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassOver 4.5 -1087Model 87.9% · Market 91.6%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +841Model 12.1% · Market 10.6%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66na7a0c0Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassUnder 7.5 +181Model 37.9% · Market 35.6%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -218Model 62.1% · Market 68.6%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66na7a0c0Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassOver 3.5 -2042Model 92.1% · Market 95.3%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1464Model 7.9% · Market 6.4%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-2042 → +1464 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66na7a0c0Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassOver 11.5 +189Model 29.8% · Market 34.6%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -228Model 70.2% · Market 69.5%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n42efe4Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +114Model 49.6% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -107Model 50.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -107 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n42efe4Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBaltimore Orioles +129Model 47.9% · Market 43.7%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 7.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBaltimore Orioles +109Model 48.0% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +4.2%+129 → +109Logit 0.169 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n42efe4Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-0 | PassOver 9.5 +180Model 40.2% · Market 36.2%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -208Model 59.8% · Market 67.6%Edge -7.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+180 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n42efe4Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-0 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 76.2% · Market 74.4%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 7.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 23.8% · Market 29.4%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n42efe4Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-0 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 85.7% · Market 84.9%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 14.3% · Market 19.0%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n42efe4Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-0 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 33.5% · Market 30.4%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 66.5% · Market 73.4%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n42efe4Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-0 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 31.2% · Market 37.6%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 68.8% · Market 66.6%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 6.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n42efe4Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 90.6% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 9.4% · Market 12.7%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n42efe4Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-0 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.5% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +124Model 50.1% · Market 45.2%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 9.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.6%-103 → +124Logit -0.224 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n42efe4Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-0 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 25.7% · Market 24.2%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 74.3% · Market 79.2%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n42efe4Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-0 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 20.6% · Market 18.0%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 79.4% · Market 84.9%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n4cc2b3Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +109Model 48.1% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +105Model 47.7% · Market 48.8%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+109 → +105Logit 0.037 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n4cc2b3Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassTexas Rangers -103Model 51.8% · Market 50.7%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTexas Rangers -112Model 51.4% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.1%-103 → -112Logit 0.084 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n4cc2b3Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 8.5 +188Model 52.1% · Market 35.2%Edge +16.9% · Full Kelly 26.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -209Model 47.9% · Market 68.1%Edge -20.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+188 → -209 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n4cc2b3Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassUnder 5.5 +152Model 22.3% · Market 39.7%Edge -17.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -183Model 77.7% · Market 64.7%Edge +13.0% · Full Kelly 36.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n4cc2b3Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassOver 9.5 +280Model 42.1% · Market 26.3%Edge +15.8% · Full Kelly 21.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -340Model 57.9% · Market 77.3%Edge -19.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n4cc2b3Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassUnder 11.5 -719Model 72.6% · Market 87.8%Edge -15.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +574Model 27.4% · Market 14.8%Edge +12.5% · Full Kelly 14.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n4cc2b3Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -458Model 64.6% · Market 82.1%Edge -17.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +373Model 35.4% · Market 21.1%Edge +14.2% · Full Kelly 18.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n4cc2b3Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 4.5 -360Model 86.7% · Market 78.3%Edge +8.4% · Full Kelly 38.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +296Model 13.3% · Market 25.3%Edge -12.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n4cc2b3Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 7.5 +134Model 59.7% · Market 42.7%Edge +16.9% · Full Kelly 29.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -148Model 40.3% · Market 60.7%Edge -20.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n4cc2b3Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 3.5 -564Model 91.3% · Market 84.9%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 42.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +425Model 8.7% · Market 19.0%Edge -10.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n0c0388Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -107Model 50.3% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -107 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n0c0388Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels +166Model 39.1% · Market 37.6%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Angels +159Model 39.7% · Market 38.6%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+166 → +159Logit 0.043 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n0c0388Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-1 | PassUnder 6.5 +158Model 32.3% · Market 39.2%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -175Model 67.7% · Market 64.2%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 11.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n0c0388Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-1 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 9.8% · Market 13.8%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 90.2% · Market 88.7%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 13.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n0c0388Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-1 | PassUnder 5.5 +218Model 24.6% · Market 31.4%Edge -6.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 75.4% · Market 73.4%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 7.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n0c0388Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-1 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 24.5% · Market 21.1%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 75.5% · Market 82.1%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n0c0388Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-1 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 32.2% · Market 28.4%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 67.8% · Market 75.4%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n0c0388Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-1 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 14.9% · Market 19.0%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 85.1% · Market 84.0%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 7.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n0c0388Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-1 | PassOver 9.5 +189Model 38.8% · Market 34.6%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -228Model 61.2% · Market 69.5%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n0c0388Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-1 | PassOver 8.5 +129Model 48.8% · Market 44.2%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -142Model 51.2% · Market 59.2%Edge -7.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66naabde9Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +101Model 48.6% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +109Model 48.7% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%+101 → +109Logit -0.076 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66naabde9Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds +140Model 45.3% · Market 41.7%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +129Model 45.3% · Market 43.7%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.0%+140 → +129Logit 0.082 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66naabde9Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassOver 13.5 +398Model 17.3% · Market 20.1%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -489Model 82.7% · Market 83.0%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66naabde9Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassOver 11.5 +218Model 29.0% · Market 31.4%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -263Model 71.0% · Market 72.5%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66naabde9Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassUnder 5.5 +398Model 21.2% · Market 20.1%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -489Model 78.8% · Market 83.0%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66naabde9Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +756Model 12.6% · Market 11.7%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -967Model 87.4% · Market 90.6%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66naabde9Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassUnder 8.5 +119Model 46.2% · Market 45.7%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -131Model 53.8% · Market 57.7%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -131 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66naabde9Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassUnder 12.5 -340Model 76.5% · Market 77.3%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +280Model 23.5% · Market 26.3%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66naabde9Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassUnder 10.5 -175Model 62.9% · Market 63.6%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +158Model 37.1% · Market 39.7%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66naabde9Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassOver 7.5 -199Model 61.3% · Market 66.6%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +166Model 38.7% · Market 37.6%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66naabde9Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassUnder 6.5 +280Model 28.2% · Market 26.3%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -340Model 71.8% · Market 77.3%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66naabde9Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassUnder 3.5 +1241Model 8.2% · Market 7.5%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1684Model 91.8% · Market 94.4%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1241 → -1684 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nf65260Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers +119Model 45.4% · Market 45.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers +129Model 46.9% · Market 43.7%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 5.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%+119 → +129Logit -0.081 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nf65260Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +114Model 49.4% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +119Model 49.0% · Market 45.7%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%+114 → +119Logit -0.043 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nf65260Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-0 | PassOver 7.5 +101Model 49.2% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +129Model 49.7% · Market 44.2%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.6%+101 → +129Logit -0.225 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nf65260Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-0 | PassUnder 11.5 -609Model 81.0% · Market 85.9%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +490Model 19.0% · Market 16.9%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nf65260Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-0 | PassUnder 4.5 +313Model 18.8% · Market 24.2%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -381Model 81.2% · Market 79.2%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 9.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nf65260Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-0 | PassUnder 9.5 -306Model 67.9% · Market 75.4%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +252Model 32.1% · Market 28.4%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 5.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nf65260Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-0 | PassUnder 5.5 +159Model 29.9% · Market 38.6%Edge -8.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -191Model 70.1% · Market 65.6%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 13.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+159 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nf65260Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-0 | PassUnder 3.5 +456Model 12.6% · Market 18.0%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -564Model 87.4% · Market 84.9%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 16.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nf65260Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-0 | PassUnder 10.5 -404Model 74.2% · Market 80.2%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +331Model 25.8% · Market 23.2%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nf65260Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-0 | PassUnder 8.5 -200Model 58.3% · Market 67.1%Edge -8.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +180Model 41.7% · Market 36.2%Edge +5.6% · Full Kelly 9.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n76096aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAtlanta Braves +134Model 43.5% · Market 42.7%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAtlanta Braves +134Model 43.4% · Market 42.7%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+134 → +134Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n76096aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 48.8% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%-103 → +105Logit -0.078 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n76096aStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 23.9% · Market 24.2%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 76.1% · Market 79.2%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n76096aStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 25.2% · Market 27.3%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 74.8% · Market 76.3%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n76096aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 55.7% · Market 57.3%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 44.3% · Market 46.2%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +119 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n76096aStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 10.1% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 89.9% · Market 91.6%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n76096aStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 62.0% · Market 65.1%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +165Model 38.0% · Market 38.2%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n76096aStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 18.9% · Market 20.1%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 81.1% · Market 83.0%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n76096aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 32.9% · Market 35.6%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 67.1% · Market 68.6%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n76096aStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 68.6% · Market 70.5%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 31.4% · Market 33.6%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n76096aStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 15.3% · Market 16.9%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 84.7% · Market 85.9%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nd13287Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 48.8% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.0% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%-103 → +101Logit -0.040 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nd13287Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMiami Marlins +114Model 53.2% · Market 46.7%Edge +6.5% · Full Kelly 12.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins +105Model 52.7% · Market 48.8%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 7.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.1%+114 → +105Logit 0.082 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nd13287Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-5 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 54.5% · Market 58.2%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 45.5% · Market 45.2%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nd13287Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-5 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 84.0% · Market 86.8%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 16.0% · Market 15.9%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nd13287Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-5 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 73.8% · Market 77.3%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 26.2% · Market 26.3%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nd13287Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-5 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 30.2% · Market 33.6%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 69.8% · Market 70.5%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nd13287Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 77.3% · Market 78.3%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 22.7% · Market 25.3%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nd13287Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 17.9% · Market 20.1%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 82.1% · Market 83.0%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nd13287Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-5 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 65.9% · Market 69.5%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 34.1% · Market 34.6%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nd13287Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 10.6% · Market 10.6%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 89.4% · Market 91.6%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66nd13287Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-5 | PassOver 9.5 +152Model 36.7% · Market 40.2%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 63.3% · Market 63.2%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nf34b29Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Francisco Giants +140Model 45.5% · Market 41.7%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants +140Model 39.9% · Market 41.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+140 → +140Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nf34b29Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Pending9-5 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.1% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.1% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+109 → +109Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nf34b29Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-5 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 50.7% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -126Model 54.9% · Market 56.2%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → -126 | 7 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nf34b29Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-5 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 25.8% · Market 29.4%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 74.2% · Market 75.4%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nf34b29Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-5 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 33.7% · Market 36.6%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 66.3% · Market 67.5%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nf34b29Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-5 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 69.4% · Market 73.4%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 30.6% · Market 30.4%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nf34b29Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-5 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 37.1% · Market 37.1%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 62.9% · Market 66.1%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nf34b29Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-5 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 10.4% · Market 12.7%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 89.6% · Market 90.6%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nf34b29Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 76.9% · Market 80.2%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 23.1% · Market 23.2%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nf34b29Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-5 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 81.8% · Market 84.9%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 18.2% · Market 18.0%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nf34b29Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-5 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 84.2% · Market 84.9%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 15.8% · Market 18.0%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n08e064Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 50.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+109 → +105Logit 0.037 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n08e064Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals +280Model 40.5% · Market 26.3%Edge +14.2% · Full Kelly 19.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals +229Model 38.3% · Market 30.4%Edge +7.9% · Full Kelly 11.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +4.1%+280 → +229Logit 0.201 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n08e064Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 17.0% · Market 18.0%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 83.0% · Market 84.9%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n08e064Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 78.7% · Market 81.1%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 21.3% · Market 23.2%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n08e064Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 34.9% · Market 37.1%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 65.1% · Market 66.1%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n08e064Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 64.3% · Market 67.5%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 35.7% · Market 36.6%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n08e064Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 28.5% · Market 30.4%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 71.5% · Market 73.4%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n08e064Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 48.4% · Market 50.7%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -131Model 55.3% · Market 57.3%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -131 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n08e064Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 72.4% · Market 74.4%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 27.6% · Market 29.4%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n08e064Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 16.6% · Market 19.0%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 83.4% · Market 84.9%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n08e064Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 11.3% · Market 11.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 88.7% · Market 90.6%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66ne2517fStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +173Model 40.1% · Market 36.6%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +189Model 35.6% · Market 34.6%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%+173 → +189Logit -0.089 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66ne2517fStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -107Model 49.2% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +105Model 49.8% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%-107 → +105Logit -0.116 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66ne2517fStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 5.5 -228Model 72.2% · Market 69.5%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +189Model 27.8% · Market 34.6%Edge -6.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66ne2517fStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 10.5 +296Model 28.3% · Market 25.3%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -360Model 71.7% · Market 78.3%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66ne2517fStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 4.5 -404Model 82.8% · Market 80.2%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 13.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +331Model 17.2% · Market 23.2%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66ne2517fStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 9.5 +218Model 34.7% · Market 31.4%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -263Model 65.3% · Market 72.5%Edge -7.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66ne2517fStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +134Model 36.0% · Market 43.2%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -148Model 64.0% · Market 60.2%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 10.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66ne2517fStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 21.1% · Market 18.0%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -609Model 78.9% · Market 85.9%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66ne2517fStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 8.5 +158Model 44.5% · Market 39.7%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 9.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -175Model 55.5% · Market 63.6%Edge -8.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66ne2517fStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-6 | PassUnder 3.5 +490Model 11.4% · Market 16.9%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -609Model 88.6% · Market 85.9%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 18.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n637313Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Diego Padres -103Model 48.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Diego Padres -103Model 48.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-103 → -103Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n637313Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -116Model 50.7% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +105Model 49.6% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → +105 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n637313Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 79.6% · Market 84.9%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 20.4% · Market 18.0%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n637313Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 6.5 +146Model 36.9% · Market 41.2%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -161Model 63.1% · Market 62.2%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n637313Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 5.5 -239Model 71.4% · Market 70.5%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +198Model 28.6% · Market 33.6%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n637313Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 9.5 -263Model 66.2% · Market 72.5%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +218Model 33.8% · Market 31.4%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n637313Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +351Model 17.8% · Market 22.2%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -458Model 82.2% · Market 82.1%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n637313Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -360Model 72.6% · Market 78.3%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +296Model 27.4% · Market 25.3%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n637313Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassOver 3.5 -719Model 88.1% · Market 87.8%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 11.9% · Market 15.9%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n637313Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 8.5 +146Model 43.6% · Market 41.2%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -161Model 56.4% · Market 62.2%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n0e9e6aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassColorado Rockies +105Model 47.5% · Market 48.8%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassColorado Rockies +105Model 47.4% · Market 48.8%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+105 → +105Logit 0.000 | 5 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n0e9e6aStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 11.5 -116Model 51.6% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +109Model 48.6% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → +109 | 4 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n0e9e6aStarts | TotalOpening line 14.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-6 | PassOver 14.5 +266Model 24.8% · Market 27.3%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 14.5 -322Model 75.2% · Market 76.3%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n0e9e6aStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassUnder 13.5 -239Model 70.2% · Market 70.5%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +198Model 29.8% · Market 33.6%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n0e9e6aStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-6 | PassUnder 10.5 +119Model 50.2% · Market 45.7%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 8.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 -131Model 52.4% · Market 57.3%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -131 | 5 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n0e9e6aStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 5.5 -869Model 87.2% · Market 89.7%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +685Model 12.8% · Market 12.7%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n0e9e6aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 8.5 -276Model 68.0% · Market 73.4%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +229Model 32.0% · Market 30.4%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n0e9e6aStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-6 | PassUnder 9.5 +146Model 41.1% · Market 40.7%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 -175Model 58.9% · Market 63.6%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n0e9e6aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 7.5 -381Model 74.1% · Market 79.2%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +313Model 25.9% · Market 24.2%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n0e9e6aStarts | TotalOpening line 15.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-6 | PassOver 15.5 +351Model 19.4% · Market 22.2%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 15.5 -430Model 80.6% · Market 81.1%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n0e9e6aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 6.5 -660Model 82.4% · Market 86.8%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +529Model 17.6% · Market 15.9%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n0e9e6aStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-6 | PassUnder 12.5 -161Model 62.4% · Market 62.2%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +146Model 37.6% · Market 41.2%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n65646dStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassArizona Diamondbacks +109Model 49.0% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassArizona Diamondbacks +105Model 51.9% · Market 48.8%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+109 → +105Logit 0.037 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n65646dStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +101Model 50.8% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.7% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+101 → +105Logit -0.039 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n65646dStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 32.2% · Market 37.1%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -191Model 67.8% · Market 66.1%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n65646dStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassOver 12.5 +313Model 19.5% · Market 24.2%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -381Model 80.5% · Market 79.2%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n65646dStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-3 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 90.2% · Market 93.5%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 9.8% · Market 8.5%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1428 → +1074 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n65646dStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassOver 7.5 -175Model 56.6% · Market 63.6%Edge -7.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +140Model 43.4% · Market 41.7%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n65646dStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassOver 4.5 -869Model 85.1% · Market 89.7%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +625Model 14.9% · Market 13.8%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n65646dStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassOver 6.5 -290Model 67.8% · Market 74.4%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +240Model 32.2% · Market 29.4%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n65646dStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassOver 9.5 +129Model 38.9% · Market 44.2%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -142Model 61.1% · Market 59.2%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n65646dStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-3 | PassUnder 5.5 +351Model 24.6% · Market 22.2%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -430Model 75.4% · Market 81.1%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n65646dStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassOver 11.5 +240Model 24.6% · Market 29.4%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 75.4% · Market 75.4%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n9cd4aeStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassToronto Blue Jays +109Model 50.9% · Market 47.9%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassToronto Blue Jays -103Model 54.3% · Market 50.7%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 7.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.9%+109 → -103Logit 0.116 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n9cd4aeStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -116Model 51.7% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 +101Model 51.2% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%-116 → +101Logit -0.158 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n9cd4aeStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassUnder 7.5 +208Model 37.8% · Market 32.5%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 7.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -251Model 62.2% · Market 71.5%Edge -9.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n9cd4aeStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -126Model 61.9% · Market 56.2%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 13.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +114Model 38.1% · Market 47.3%Edge -9.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-126 → +114 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n9cd4aeStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassOver 13.5 +296Model 18.0% · Market 25.3%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -381Model 82.0% · Market 79.2%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 13.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n9cd4aeStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-2 | PassUnder 12.5 -263Model 75.6% · Market 72.5%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 11.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +208Model 24.4% · Market 32.5%Edge -8.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n9cd4aeStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +1464Model 7.8% · Market 6.4%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -2580Model 92.2% · Market 96.3%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1464 → -2580 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n9cd4aeStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +331Model 27.4% · Market 23.2%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -404Model 72.6% · Market 80.2%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n9cd4aeStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-2 | PassOver 5.5 -564Model 79.4% · Market 84.9%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +456Model 20.6% · Market 18.0%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n9cd4aeStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassUnder 8.5 +158Model 45.2% · Market 39.2%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 10.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -175Model 54.8% · Market 64.2%Edge -9.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n9cd4aeStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +1074Model 12.1% · Market 8.5%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -1428Model 87.9% · Market 93.5%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1074 → -1428 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n9cd4aeStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassOver 11.5 +159Model 29.9% · Market 38.6%Edge -8.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -199Model 70.1% · Market 66.6%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 10.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+159 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nea15eaStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 50.0% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 49.9% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -107 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nea15eaStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassTexas Rangers +105Model 52.1% · Market 48.8%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTexas Rangers -121Model 52.1% · Market 54.8%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +6.0%+105 → -121Logit 0.239 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nea15eaStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 24.4% · Market 21.1%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 75.6% · Market 82.1%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nea15eaStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 88.0% · Market 85.9%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 14.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 12.0% · Market 16.9%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nea15eaStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 79.6% · Market 77.3%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 10.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 20.4% · Market 26.3%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nea15eaStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +198Model 27.2% · Market 33.6%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -239Model 72.8% · Market 70.5%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 7.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nea15eaStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 92.2% · Market 91.6%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 7.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 7.8% · Market 10.6%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nea15eaStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 55.0% · Market 63.2%Edge -8.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +152Model 45.0% · Market 40.2%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 8.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nea15eaStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 61.8% · Market 70.5%Edge -8.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +189Model 38.2% · Market 34.6%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nea15eaStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassOver 11.5 +280Model 30.0% · Market 26.3%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 70.0% · Market 77.3%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nea15eaStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-6 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.0% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 37.7% · Market 44.6%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.1%+105 → +124Logit -0.166 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n18cf1eStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 -103Model 48.1% · Market 50.7%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +109Model 48.5% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%-103 → +109Logit -0.116 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n18cf1eStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago White Sox -137Model 56.7% · Market 57.8%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago White Sox -126Model 55.8% · Market 55.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.1%-137 → -126Logit -0.084 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n18cf1eStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-4 | PassOver 8.5 -137Model 52.5% · Market 58.2%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -142Model 52.5% · Market 58.7%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.4%-137 → -142Logit 0.018 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n18cf1eStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-4 | PassUnder 7.5 +166Model 39.9% · Market 37.6%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -199Model 60.1% · Market 66.6%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n18cf1eStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-4 | PassOver 10.5 +146Model 35.8% · Market 41.2%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -161Model 64.2% · Market 62.2%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n18cf1eStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-4 | PassUnder 4.5 +685Model 13.1% · Market 12.7%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -869Model 86.9% · Market 89.7%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n18cf1eStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-4 | PassUnder 11.5 -251Model 72.2% · Market 71.5%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +208Model 27.8% · Market 32.5%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n18cf1eStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-4 | PassUnder 6.5 +266Model 29.1% · Market 27.3%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -322Model 70.9% · Market 76.3%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n18cf1eStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-4 | PassUnder 5.5 +373Model 22.0% · Market 21.1%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -458Model 78.0% · Market 82.1%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n18cf1eStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-4 | PassUnder 13.5 -489Model 83.6% · Market 83.0%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +398Model 16.4% · Market 20.1%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n18cf1eStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-4 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 8.5% · Market 8.5%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1684Model 91.5% · Market 94.4%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1074 → -1684 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n18cf1eStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-4 | PassUnder 12.5 -340Model 77.6% · Market 77.3%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +266Model 22.4% · Market 27.3%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n5d4f95Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.8% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.8% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+105 → +105Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n5d4f95Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCleveland Guardians -126Model 53.6% · Market 55.8%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers +134Model 46.4% · Market 42.7%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-126 → +134 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n5d4f95Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 8.5 -112Model 48.7% · Market 52.8%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -131Model 51.9% · Market 56.7%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → -131 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n5d4f95Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 61.8% · Market 65.6%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 38.2% · Market 36.6%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n498ffcStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 50.7% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 50.1% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.9%+109 → +101Logit 0.076 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n498ffcStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Francisco Giants +146Model 44.8% · Market 40.6%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 7.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants +173Model 42.6% · Market 36.6%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 9.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%+146 → +173Logit -0.170 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n498ffcStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-10 | PassUnder 9.5 -218Model 64.5% · Market 68.6%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +197Model 35.5% · Market 34.1%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +197 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n498ffcStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-10 | PassOver 8.5 -112Model 48.2% · Market 52.8%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -142Model 54.6% · Market 59.7%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → -142 | 5 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n498ffcStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-10 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 17.0% · Market 16.9%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 83.0% · Market 85.9%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n498ffcStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-10 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 21.8% · Market 22.2%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 78.2% · Market 81.1%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n498ffcStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-10 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 70.9% · Market 74.4%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 29.1% · Market 29.4%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n498ffcStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-10 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 16.7% · Market 18.0%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 83.3% · Market 84.9%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n498ffcStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-10 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 72.9% · Market 74.4%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 27.1% · Market 29.4%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n498ffcStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-10 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 88.9% · Market 89.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 11.1% · Market 12.7%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n498ffcStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-10 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 35.2% · Market 37.6%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 64.8% · Market 66.6%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n7a6e2bStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 48.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 48.7% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.9%+109 → +101Logit 0.076 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n7a6e2bStarts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Lost6-1Paper stake $200 · P/L -$200 | Paper betMiami Marlins +140Model 49.2% · Market 41.7%Edge +7.5% · Full Kelly 12.9%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betMiami Marlins +140Model 49.2% · Market 41.7%Edge +7.5% · Full Kelly 12.9%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%+140 → +140Logit 0.000 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n7a6e2bStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-1 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 20.8% · Market 24.2%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 79.2% · Market 79.2%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n7a6e2bStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-1 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 17.5% · Market 18.0%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 82.5% · Market 85.9%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n7a6e2bStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-1 | PassUnder 7.5 -112Model 50.3% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 52.0% · Market 57.3%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → -131 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n7a6e2bStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-1 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 27.9% · Market 32.5%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 72.1% · Market 72.5%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n7a6e2bStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-1 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 88.3% · Market 91.6%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 11.7% · Market 11.7%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n7a6e2bStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-1 | PassUnder 6.5 +188Model 36.3% · Market 35.2%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -209Model 63.7% · Market 68.1%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+188 → -209 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n7a6e2bStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-1 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 71.8% · Market 76.3%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 28.2% · Market 28.4%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n7a6e2bStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-1 | PassOver 9.5 +159Model 34.3% · Market 38.6%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 65.7% · Market 65.6%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+159 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n14815eStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -116Model 50.5% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.5% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → +101 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n14815eStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBaltimore Orioles -103Model 52.1% · Market 50.7%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBaltimore Orioles -103Model 50.7% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-103 → -103Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n14815eStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-0 | PassUnder 7.5 +114Model 42.4% · Market 46.7%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 42.4% · Market 46.2%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%+114 → +119Logit -0.021 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n14815eStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-0 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 23.9% · Market 28.4%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 76.1% · Market 76.3%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n14815eStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-0 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 60.1% · Market 65.1%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +165Model 39.9% · Market 38.2%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n14815eStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-0 | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 25.5% · Market 25.3%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 74.5% · Market 79.2%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n14815eStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-0 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 33.2% · Market 32.5%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 66.8% · Market 71.5%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n14815eStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-0 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 20.4% · Market 20.1%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 79.6% · Market 84.0%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n14815eStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-0 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 31.4% · Market 35.6%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 68.6% · Market 68.6%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n14815eStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 9.5% · Market 11.7%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 90.5% · Market 91.6%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n14815eStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 85.6% · Market 85.9%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 14.4% · Market 16.9%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n72db82Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -112Model 49.5% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +101Model 50.2% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → +101 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n72db82Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels +152Model 41.8% · Market 39.7%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Angels +159Model 38.3% · Market 38.6%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%+152 → +159Logit -0.045 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n72db82Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 7.5 +140Model 39.5% · Market 42.2%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -161Model 60.5% · Market 62.2%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n72db82Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-1 | PassOver 9.5 +140Model 43.0% · Market 42.2%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -148Model 57.0% · Market 60.2%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n72db82Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-1 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 87.1% · Market 87.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 12.9% · Market 14.8%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n72db82Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 10.5 -208Model 63.8% · Market 67.5%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 36.2% · Market 36.6%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n72db82Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-1 | PassOver 12.5 +351Model 22.8% · Market 22.2%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -430Model 77.2% · Market 81.1%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n72db82Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-1 | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 78.3% · Market 79.2%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +313Model 21.7% · Market 24.2%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n72db82Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 8.4% · Market 10.6%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 91.6% · Market 92.5%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1236 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n72db82Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 6.5 +218Model 28.8% · Market 31.4%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -263Model 71.2% · Market 72.5%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n72db82Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 71.8% · Market 75.4%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 28.2% · Market 28.4%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n7bec4fStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +101Model 49.1% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +109Model 49.0% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%+101 → +109Logit -0.076 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n7bec4fStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAtlanta Braves +105Model 48.2% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassPhiladelphia Phillies -121Model 52.1% · Market 54.8%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -121 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n7bec4fStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -458Model 72.7% · Market 82.1%Edge -9.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +373Model 27.3% · Market 21.1%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 7.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n7bec4fStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-2 | PassUnder 5.5 +152Model 28.7% · Market 39.7%Edge -11.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -183Model 71.3% · Market 64.7%Edge +6.7% · Full Kelly 18.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n7bec4fStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassUnder 8.5 -200Model 56.6% · Market 67.1%Edge -10.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +180Model 43.4% · Market 36.2%Edge +7.2% · Full Kelly 12.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n7bec4fStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +266Model 17.8% · Market 27.3%Edge -9.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -322Model 82.2% · Market 76.3%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 24.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n7bec4fStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassOver 3.5 -525Model 88.1% · Market 84.0%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 25.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +425Model 11.9% · Market 19.0%Edge -7.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n7bec4fStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -660Model 79.8% · Market 86.8%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +529Model 20.2% · Market 15.9%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 5.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n7bec4fStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -340Model 66.4% · Market 77.3%Edge -10.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +280Model 33.6% · Market 26.3%Edge +7.3% · Full Kelly 9.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n7bec4fStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassUnder 7.5 -142Model 48.7% · Market 59.2%Edge -10.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +129Model 51.3% · Market 44.2%Edge +7.2% · Full Kelly 13.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +129 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n2aab9fStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds +129Model 48.0% · Market 43.7%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 7.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +134Model 45.6% · Market 42.7%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+129 → +134Logit -0.038 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n2aab9fStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -112Model 51.4% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -107Model 51.1% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%-112 → -107Logit -0.046 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n2aab9fStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-7 | PassUnder 12.5 -290Model 74.8% · Market 74.4%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +240Model 25.2% · Market 29.4%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n2aab9fStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-7 | PassUnder 10.5 -142Model 61.0% · Market 59.2%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 5.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +129Model 39.0% · Market 44.2%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +129 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n2aab9fStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-7 | PassOver 4.5 -1087Model 88.3% · Market 91.6%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +841Model 11.7% · Market 10.6%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n2aab9fStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-7 | PassOver 5.5 -564Model 80.0% · Market 84.9%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +456Model 20.0% · Market 18.0%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n2aab9fStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-7 | PassOver 8.5 -161Model 55.7% · Market 62.2%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +146Model 44.3% · Market 41.2%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n2aab9fStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-7 | PassOver 6.5 -381Model 73.3% · Market 79.2%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +313Model 26.7% · Market 24.2%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n2aab9fStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-7 | PassUnder 3.5 +1241Model 7.6% · Market 7.5%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1684Model 92.4% · Market 94.4%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1241 → -1684 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n2aab9fStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-7 | PassUnder 7.5 +189Model 37.0% · Market 34.6%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -228Model 63.0% · Market 69.5%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n2aab9fStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-7 | PassOver 13.5 +331Model 18.7% · Market 23.2%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -430Model 81.3% · Market 81.1%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n2aab9fStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-7 | PassOver 11.5 +181Model 30.7% · Market 35.6%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -218Model 69.3% · Market 68.6%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n4c080dStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 48.8% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 50.7% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → -107 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n4c080dStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers +114Model 46.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers +114Model 45.8% · Market 46.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+114 → +114Logit 0.000 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n4c080dStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassUnder 6.5 +140Model 48.8% · Market 41.7%Edge +7.1% · Full Kelly 12.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +206Model 32.3% · Market 32.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -9.0%+140 → +206Logit -0.386 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n4c080dStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 4.5 -644Model 85.1% · Market 86.6%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +484Model 14.9% · Market 17.1%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-644 → +484 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n4c080dStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 38.7% · Market 38.8%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 61.3% · Market 63.6%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n4c080dStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 10.5 +216Model 32.1% · Market 31.6%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -240Model 67.9% · Market 70.6%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+216 → -240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n4c080dStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-7 | PassUnder 7.5 +129Model 50.5% · Market 43.7%Edge +6.8% · Full Kelly 12.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 56.4% · Market 57.8%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -137 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n4c080dStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassUnder 5.5 +206Model 47.5% · Market 32.7%Edge +14.9% · Full Kelly 22.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +276Model 24.7% · Market 26.6%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -6.1%+206 → +276Logit -0.293 | 4 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66ncbb7ecStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +240Model 40.6% · Market 29.4%Edge +11.2% · Full Kelly 15.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +229Model 37.9% · Market 30.4%Edge +7.5% · Full Kelly 10.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+240 → +229Logit 0.047 | 4 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66ncbb7ecStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 50.3% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -103Model 50.2% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -103 | 5 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66ncbb7ecStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -340Model 68.7% · Market 77.3%Edge -8.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +280Model 31.3% · Market 26.3%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66ncbb7ecStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 12.5 +574Model 18.7% · Market 14.8%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -719Model 81.3% · Market 87.8%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66ncbb7ecStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 5.5 +208Model 25.3% · Market 32.5%Edge -7.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -251Model 74.7% · Market 71.5%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 11.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66ncbb7ecStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +373Model 15.4% · Market 21.1%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -458Model 84.6% · Market 82.1%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 14.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66ncbb7ecStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 9.5 -219Model 62.2% · Market 69.6%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +198Model 37.8% · Market 33.6%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-219 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66ncbb7ecStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 6.5 +146Model 33.1% · Market 40.7%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -175Model 66.9% · Market 63.6%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 8.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66ncbb7ecStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 8.5 +134Model 47.7% · Market 42.7%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 8.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -148Model 52.3% · Market 60.7%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66ncbb7ecStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 11.5 -525Model 76.3% · Market 84.0%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +425Model 23.7% · Market 19.0%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66ncbb7ecStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 89.8% · Market 88.7%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 9.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 10.2% · Market 13.8%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nbc2a49Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +166Model 40.8% · Market 37.6%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 5.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +181Model 36.8% · Market 35.6%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%+166 → +181Logit -0.086 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nbc2a49Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -105Model 49.3% · Market 51.2%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +101Model 49.7% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.5%-105 → +101Logit -0.059 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nbc2a49Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-4 | PassUnder 9.5 -263Model 66.1% · Market 72.5%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +218Model 33.9% · Market 31.4%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nbc2a49Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-4 | PassUnder 8.5 -161Model 56.4% · Market 62.2%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +146Model 43.6% · Market 41.2%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nbc2a49Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-4 | PassOver 4.5 -430Model 82.4% · Market 81.1%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +351Model 17.6% · Market 22.2%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nbc2a49Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-4 | PassOver 6.5 -155Model 63.3% · Market 61.7%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +140Model 36.7% · Market 41.7%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-155 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nbc2a49Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-4 | PassOver 5.5 -239Model 71.6% · Market 70.5%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +198Model 28.4% · Market 33.6%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nbc2a49Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-4 | PassOver 3.5 -719Model 88.2% · Market 87.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 11.8% · Market 14.8%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nbc2a49Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-4 | PassOver 11.5 +425Model 20.5% · Market 19.0%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -525Model 79.5% · Market 84.0%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nbc2a49Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-4 | PassOver 10.5 +296Model 27.6% · Market 25.3%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -360Model 72.4% · Market 78.3%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n6fd701Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -102Model 49.3% · Market 50.5%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 48.8% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.7%-102 → +105Logit -0.069 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n6fd701Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassTexas Rangers -103Model 50.2% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTexas Rangers +105Model 48.4% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%-103 → +105Logit -0.078 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n6fd701Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 11.5% · Market 19.0%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 88.5% · Market 84.9%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 23.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n6fd701Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 26.4% · Market 37.6%Edge -11.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 73.6% · Market 66.6%Edge +7.0% · Full Kelly 21.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n6fd701Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-6 | PassOver 8.5 +124Model 56.0% · Market 45.7%Edge +10.3% · Full Kelly 20.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -137Model 44.0% · Market 57.8%Edge -13.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -137 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n6fd701Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-6 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 74.6% · Market 85.9%Edge -11.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 25.4% · Market 16.9%Edge +8.5% · Full Kelly 10.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n6fd701Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-6 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 80.2% · Market 73.4%Edge +6.8% · Full Kelly 25.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 19.8% · Market 30.4%Edge -10.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n6fd701Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-6 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 92.6% · Market 89.7%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 27.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 7.4% · Market 12.7%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n6fd701Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 60.7% · Market 74.4%Edge -13.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 39.3% · Market 29.4%Edge +9.9% · Full Kelly 14.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n6fd701Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-6 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 31.0% · Market 22.2%Edge +8.8% · Full Kelly 11.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 69.0% · Market 81.1%Edge -12.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n6fd701Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -200Model 53.9% · Market 67.1%Edge -13.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +180Model 46.1% · Market 36.2%Edge +9.9% · Full Kelly 16.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n696869Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +101Model 48.5% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +105Model 48.5% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+101 → +105Logit -0.039 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n696869Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassKansas City Royals +101Model 50.5% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins +101Model 51.9% · Market 49.8%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → +101 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n696869Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassUnder 8.5 +114Model 50.2% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -137Model 52.5% · Market 58.7%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -137 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n696869Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassUnder 11.5 -263Model 72.2% · Market 72.5%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +218Model 27.8% · Market 31.4%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n696869Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 8.6% · Market 8.5%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 91.4% · Market 93.5%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1074 → -1428 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n696869Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 7.5 -183Model 60.0% · Market 65.6%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +166Model 40.0% · Market 37.7%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n696869Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassUnder 12.5 -340Model 77.6% · Market 77.3%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +280Model 22.4% · Market 26.3%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n696869Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassOver 10.5 +146Model 35.8% · Market 40.7%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -175Model 64.2% · Market 63.6%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n696869Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 4.5 -967Model 86.8% · Market 90.6%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +756Model 13.2% · Market 11.7%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n696869Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 6.5 -322Model 70.8% · Market 76.3%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +266Model 29.2% · Market 27.3%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n696869Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassUnder 5.5 +373Model 22.1% · Market 21.1%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -458Model 77.9% · Market 82.1%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n696869Starts | TotalOpening line 9Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9 -110Model 51.4% · Market 52.4%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9 -110Model 51.4% · Market 52.4%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-110 → -110Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nbfec69Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.6% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 50.1% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%-107 → +101Logit -0.078 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nbfec69Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMilwaukee Brewers -107Model 50.7% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago Cubs +105Model 52.4% · Market 48.8%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 7.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → +105 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nbfec69Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 27.1% · Market 34.6%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -239Model 72.9% · Market 70.5%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 8.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nbfec69Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 88.1% · Market 86.8%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 9.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 11.9% · Market 15.9%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nbfec69Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 7.7% · Market 10.6%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 92.3% · Market 91.6%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nbfec69Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 38.4% · Market 33.6%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 7.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 61.6% · Market 70.5%Edge -8.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nbfec69Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 7.5 +129Model 37.5% · Market 44.7%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -142Model 62.5% · Market 58.7%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 9.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nbfec69Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 54.8% · Market 63.2%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +152Model 45.2% · Market 40.2%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 9.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nbfec69Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 24.6% · Market 21.1%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 75.4% · Market 82.1%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nbfec69Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 69.8% · Market 78.3%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 30.2% · Market 25.3%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nbfec69Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 79.7% · Market 76.3%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 14.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 20.3% · Market 27.3%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nbfec69Starts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -104Model 49.5% · Market 51.0%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 -104Model 49.5% · Market 51.0%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-104 → -104Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66ne7a498Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBaltimore Orioles +105Model 51.6% · Market 48.8%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBaltimore Orioles +105Model 51.4% · Market 48.8%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 5.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+105 → +105Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66ne7a498Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -102Model 49.5% · Market 50.5%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.7% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.2%-102 → -107Logit 0.048 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66ne7a498Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-5 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 78.0% · Market 83.0%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 22.0% · Market 20.1%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66ne7a498Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassUnder 7.5 +129Model 40.4% · Market 44.2%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -142Model 59.6% · Market 59.2%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66ne7a498Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 64.7% · Market 70.5%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 35.3% · Market 33.6%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66ne7a498Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 13.4% · Market 15.9%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 86.6% · Market 86.8%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66ne7a498Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassUnder 9.5 -161Model 58.0% · Market 62.7%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +146Model 42.0% · Market 40.7%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66ne7a498Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassOver 11.5 +280Model 27.3% · Market 26.3%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 72.7% · Market 77.3%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66ne7a498Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 22.4% · Market 26.3%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -360Model 77.6% · Market 78.3%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66ne7a498Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassUnder 6.5 +198Model 29.6% · Market 33.6%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -239Model 70.4% · Market 70.5%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66ne7a498Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 8.7% · Market 10.6%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 91.3% · Market 91.6%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n0d993cStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -105Model 49.7% · Market 51.2%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 50.3% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-105 → -107 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n0d993cStarts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Lost2-6Paper stake $200 · P/L -$200 | Paper betChicago White Sox +134Model 48.2% · Market 42.7%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 9.5%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betChicago White Sox +134Model 48.2% · Market 42.7%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 9.5%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%+134 → +134Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n0d993cStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassOver 9.5 +146Model 41.7% · Market 40.7%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -161Model 58.3% · Market 62.7%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n0d993cStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 91.2% · Market 91.6%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 8.8% · Market 10.6%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n0d993cStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -228Model 65.0% · Market 69.5%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +189Model 35.0% · Market 34.6%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n0d993cStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 22.6% · Market 26.3%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 77.4% · Market 77.3%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n0d993cStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassOver 6.5 -239Model 70.2% · Market 70.5%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +198Model 29.8% · Market 33.6%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n0d993cStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassOver 7.5 -148Model 59.3% · Market 60.2%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +134Model 40.7% · Market 43.2%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n0d993cStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 86.5% · Market 86.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 13.5% · Market 15.9%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n0d993cStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 21.7% · Market 21.1%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 78.3% · Market 82.1%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n0d993cStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassOver 11.5 +280Model 27.0% · Market 26.3%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 73.0% · Market 77.3%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n0e1a2eStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +100Model 50.3% · Market 50.0%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 +101Model 51.1% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+100 → +101 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n0e1a2eStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCleveland Guardians -121Model 55.3% · Market 54.8%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCleveland Guardians -112Model 57.5% · Market 52.8%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 9.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%-121 → -112Logit -0.077 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n0e1a2eStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 63.9% · Market 66.6%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 36.1% · Market 37.6%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n0e1a2eStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassOver 9.5 +181Model 34.6% · Market 35.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -200Model 65.4% · Market 67.6%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -200 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n0e1a2eStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 27.8% · Market 30.4%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 72.2% · Market 74.4%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n0e1a2eStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 88.5% · Market 89.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 11.5% · Market 13.8%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n0e1a2eStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 71.9% · Market 75.4%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 28.1% · Market 28.4%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n0e1a2eStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 8.5 +119Model 44.4% · Market 45.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -131Model 55.6% · Market 57.7%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -131 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n0e1a2eStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 79.0% · Market 82.1%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 21.0% · Market 21.1%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n0e1a2eStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 82.8% · Market 84.0%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 17.2% · Market 19.0%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n07db2fStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Francisco Giants +134Model 44.1% · Market 42.7%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassPittsburgh Pirates -168Model 61.4% · Market 62.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -168 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n07db2fStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -110Model 50.7% · Market 52.4%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +114Model 50.2% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.7%-110 → +114Logit -0.226 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n07db2fStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-5 | PassUnder 9.5 -131Model 57.4% · Market 57.3%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +124Model 42.6% · Market 45.2%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n07db2fStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-5 | PassOver 4.5 -869Model 87.0% · Market 89.7%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +685Model 13.0% · Market 12.7%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n07db2fStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-5 | PassUnder 12.5 -381Model 77.5% · Market 79.2%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +313Model 22.5% · Market 24.2%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n07db2fStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-5 | PassOver 10.5 +159Model 35.9% · Market 38.6%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -191Model 64.1% · Market 65.6%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+159 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n07db2fStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -290Model 72.1% · Market 74.4%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +240Model 27.9% · Market 29.4%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n07db2fStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-5 | PassUnder 7.5 +158Model 39.9% · Market 39.2%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -175Model 60.1% · Market 64.2%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n07db2fStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-5 | PassUnder 5.5 +351Model 22.0% · Market 22.2%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -430Model 78.0% · Market 81.1%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n07db2fStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-5 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 8.5% · Market 8.5%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 91.5% · Market 93.5%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1074 → -1428 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n07db2fStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-5 | PassOver 6.5 -290Model 70.9% · Market 74.4%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +240Model 29.1% · Market 29.4%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n7651b6Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +181Model 40.8% · Market 35.6%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 8.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +229Model 37.1% · Market 30.4%Edge +6.7% · Full Kelly 9.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.2%+181 → +229Logit -0.235 | 4 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n7651b6Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -110Model 50.5% · Market 52.4%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 50.0% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.5%-110 → +109Logit -0.181 | 5 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n7651b6Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-6 | PassUnder 8.5 -126Model 53.7% · Market 56.2%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 46.3% · Market 47.3%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-126 → +114 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n7651b6Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 70.0% · Market 73.4%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 30.0% · Market 30.4%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n7651b6Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-6 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 89.3% · Market 90.6%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 10.7% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n7651b6Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-6 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 26.4% · Market 28.4%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 73.6% · Market 75.4%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n7651b6Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-6 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 83.9% · Market 84.9%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 16.1% · Market 18.0%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n7651b6Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-6 | PassOver 9.5 +166Model 36.5% · Market 37.6%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -199Model 63.5% · Market 66.6%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n7651b6Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +180Model 34.3% · Market 36.2%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -200Model 65.7% · Market 67.1%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+180 → -200 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n7651b6Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-6 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 22.6% · Market 23.2%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 77.4% · Market 80.2%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n08d453Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +101Model 48.4% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -116Model 51.7% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → -116 | 3 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n08d453Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels +134Model 47.4% · Market 42.7%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 8.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Angels +134Model 46.5% · Market 42.7%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+134 → +134Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n08d453Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 5.5 -175Model 74.3% · Market 63.6%Edge +10.6% · Full Kelly 29.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +146Model 25.7% · Market 40.7%Edge -14.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n08d453Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassUnder 9.5 -381Model 62.4% · Market 79.2%Edge -16.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +313Model 37.6% · Market 24.2%Edge +13.4% · Full Kelly 17.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n08d453Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 7.5 +146Model 55.3% · Market 41.2%Edge +14.1% · Full Kelly 24.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -161Model 44.7% · Market 62.2%Edge -17.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n08d453Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassUnder 8.5 -229Model 52.5% · Market 70.1%Edge -17.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +206Model 47.5% · Market 33.1%Edge +14.4% · Full Kelly 22.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-229 → +206 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n08d453Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassOver 11.5 +685Model 23.5% · Market 12.7%Edge +10.8% · Full Kelly 12.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -869Model 76.5% · Market 89.7%Edge -13.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n08d453Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +266Model 15.7% · Market 27.3%Edge -11.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -322Model 84.3% · Market 76.3%Edge +8.0% · Full Kelly 33.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n08d453Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 3.5 -525Model 89.6% · Market 84.0%Edge +5.6% · Full Kelly 35.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +425Model 10.4% · Market 19.0%Edge -8.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n08d453Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassOver 10.5 +425Model 31.0% · Market 19.0%Edge +12.0% · Full Kelly 14.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -525Model 69.0% · Market 84.0%Edge -15.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n08d453Starts | TotalOpening line 7Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7 +100Model 51.4% · Market 50.0%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7 -105Model 52.0% · Market 51.2%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.2%+100 → -105Logit 0.049 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n74016eStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago White Sox +105Model 47.5% · Market 48.8%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago White Sox +119Model 45.2% · Market 45.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.1%+105 → +119Logit -0.125 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n74016eStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -105Model 49.5% · Market 51.2%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 50.5% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-105 → -103 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n74016eStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -148Model 59.8% · Market 60.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +140Model 40.2% · Market 42.2%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n74016eStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +208Model 31.0% · Market 32.5%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -251Model 69.0% · Market 71.5%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n74016eStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 7.5 +134Model 42.1% · Market 42.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -148Model 57.9% · Market 60.7%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n74016eStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -218Model 66.4% · Market 68.6%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +181Model 33.6% · Market 35.6%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n74016eStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 5.5 -360Model 76.4% · Market 78.3%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +296Model 23.6% · Market 25.3%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n74016eStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 85.8% · Market 87.8%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 14.2% · Market 14.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n74016eStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 90.7% · Market 92.5%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 9.3% · Market 9.6%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +945 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n74016eStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 12.5 -430Model 79.4% · Market 81.1%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +351Model 20.6% · Market 22.2%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n74016eStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 11.5 +266Model 25.8% · Market 27.3%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -322Model 74.2% · Market 76.3%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n043c60Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassKansas City Royals -107Model 49.2% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins -103Model 51.0% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -103 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n043c60Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -104Model 50.6% · Market 51.0%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9 +105Model 51.9% · Market 48.8%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-104 → +105 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n043c60Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-6 | PassUnder 7.5 +152Model 41.9% · Market 39.7%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -168Model 58.1% · Market 63.2%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n043c60Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-6 | PassOver 12.5 +296Model 20.7% · Market 25.3%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -360Model 79.3% · Market 78.3%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n043c60Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-6 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 9.3% · Market 8.5%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 90.7% · Market 93.5%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1074 → -1428 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n043c60Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-6 | PassOver 10.5 +159Model 33.7% · Market 38.6%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -191Model 66.3% · Market 65.6%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+159 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n043c60Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-6 | PassOver 6.5 -290Model 69.1% · Market 74.4%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +240Model 30.9% · Market 29.4%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n043c60Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-6 | PassUnder 5.5 +331Model 23.5% · Market 23.2%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -404Model 76.5% · Market 80.2%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n043c60Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-6 | PassOver 9.5 +124Model 40.4% · Market 45.2%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -137Model 59.6% · Market 58.2%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -137 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n043c60Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-6 | PassOver 11.5 +240Model 25.9% · Market 29.4%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -290Model 74.1% · Market 74.4%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n043c60Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +625Model 14.1% · Market 13.8%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -788Model 85.9% · Market 88.7%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n54c0b1Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers +105Model 50.3% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers -103Model 51.5% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.0%+105 → -103Logit 0.078 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n54c0b1Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -105Model 50.5% · Market 51.2%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 49.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%-105 → -103Logit -0.019 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n54c0b1Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -200Model 61.9% · Market 67.1%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +180Model 38.1% · Market 36.2%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n54c0b1Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-6 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 7.8% · Market 9.6%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 92.2% · Market 92.5%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+945 → -1236 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n54c0b1Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +218Model 27.3% · Market 31.4%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -263Model 72.7% · Market 72.5%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n54c0b1Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 12.1% · Market 14.8%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 87.9% · Market 87.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n54c0b1Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-6 | PassUnder 13.5 -609Model 82.0% · Market 85.9%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +490Model 18.0% · Market 16.9%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n54c0b1Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-6 | PassUnder 7.5 +134Model 37.8% · Market 42.7%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -161Model 62.2% · Market 61.7%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n54c0b1Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-6 | PassUnder 12.5 -404Model 75.6% · Market 80.2%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +331Model 24.4% · Market 23.2%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n54c0b1Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 70.1% · Market 75.4%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 29.9% · Market 28.4%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n54c0b1Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost11-6 | PassOver 9.5 +134Model 44.9% · Market 42.7%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -148Model 55.1% · Market 60.7%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n54c0b1Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost11-6 | PassOver 5.5 -360Model 79.5% · Market 78.3%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +296Model 20.5% · Market 25.3%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nffa517Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -102Model 48.6% · Market 50.5%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +101Model 50.6% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-102 → +101 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nffa517Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago Cubs +114Model 47.6% · Market 46.7%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago Cubs +124Model 48.9% · Market 44.6%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 7.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.1%+114 → +124Logit -0.084 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nffa517Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-5 | PassUnder 7.5 +140Model 42.8% · Market 42.2%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -155Model 57.2% · Market 61.2%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -155 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nffa517Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-5 | PassOver 6.5 -263Model 68.3% · Market 72.5%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +218Model 31.7% · Market 31.4%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nffa517Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-5 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 9.6% · Market 10.6%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 90.4% · Market 91.6%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nffa517Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-5 | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 75.9% · Market 79.2%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +313Model 24.1% · Market 24.2%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nffa517Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-5 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 80.0% · Market 82.1%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 20.0% · Market 21.1%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nffa517Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 14.6% · Market 14.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 85.4% · Market 87.8%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nffa517Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-5 | PassUnder 9.5 -148Model 60.5% · Market 60.2%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +134Model 39.5% · Market 43.2%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nffa517Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-5 | PassUnder 10.5 -208Model 67.1% · Market 67.5%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 32.9% · Market 36.6%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nffa517Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 74.9% · Market 75.4%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 25.1% · Market 28.4%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n554578Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.4% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +114Model 50.5% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 7.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → +114 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n554578Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassPittsburgh Pirates -148Model 58.3% · Market 59.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassPittsburgh Pirates -154Model 58.5% · Market 60.6%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%-148 → -154Logit 0.040 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n554578Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassOver 9.5 +134Model 40.5% · Market 43.2%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -137Model 59.5% · Market 58.7%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -137 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n554578Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassUnder 7.5 +140Model 41.8% · Market 41.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +152Model 41.8% · Market 40.7%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+140 → +152Logit -0.041 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n554578Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassUnder 5.5 +313Model 23.4% · Market 24.2%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 76.6% · Market 79.2%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n554578Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassUnder 6.5 +229Model 30.8% · Market 30.4%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -276Model 69.2% · Market 73.4%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n554578Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassUnder 12.5 -404Model 79.2% · Market 80.2%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +331Model 20.8% · Market 23.2%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n554578Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 74.0% · Market 75.4%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 26.0% · Market 28.4%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n554578Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 90.8% · Market 92.5%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 9.2% · Market 9.6%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +945 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n554578Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassUnder 4.5 +625Model 14.0% · Market 13.8%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -788Model 86.0% · Market 88.7%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n554578Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassUnder 10.5 -208Model 66.1% · Market 67.5%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +166Model 33.9% · Market 37.6%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n554578Starts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -110Model 50.0% · Market 52.4%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 -102Model 50.0% · Market 50.5%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%-110 → -102Logit -0.075 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n93884bStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCleveland Guardians -121Model 53.4% · Market 54.8%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCleveland Guardians +114Model 51.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 9.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -8.0%-121 → +114Logit -0.322 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n93884bStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 +105Model 50.0% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +101Model 49.8% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+105 → +101Logit 0.039 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n93884bStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost11-0 | PassOver 9.5 +218Model 35.1% · Market 31.4%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -263Model 64.9% · Market 72.5%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n93884bStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost11-0 | PassOver 4.5 -430Model 83.0% · Market 81.1%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 9.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +351Model 17.0% · Market 22.2%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n93884bStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost11-0 | PassOver 6.5 -155Model 64.4% · Market 61.2%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 9.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +140Model 35.6% · Market 42.2%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-155 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n93884bStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-0 | PassUnder 8.5 -161Model 55.1% · Market 62.2%Edge -7.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +146Model 44.9% · Market 41.2%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 7.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n93884bStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost11-0 | PassOver 3.5 -719Model 88.7% · Market 87.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 7.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 11.3% · Market 14.8%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n93884bStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-0 | PassUnder 10.5 -360Model 71.4% · Market 78.3%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +296Model 28.6% · Market 25.3%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n93884bStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-0 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 21.4% · Market 18.0%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 78.6% · Market 84.9%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n93884bStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost11-0 | PassOver 5.5 -239Model 72.4% · Market 70.5%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +198Model 27.6% · Market 33.6%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n93884bStarts | TotalOpening line 7Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7 +102Model 49.6% · Market 49.5%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +100Model 49.9% · Market 50.0%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+102 → +100 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nf31357Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassTampa Bay Rays -154Model 58.9% · Market 60.6%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Mets +152Model 39.8% · Market 39.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-154 → +152 | 5 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nf31357Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 47.9% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 47.9% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+105 → +109Logit -0.037 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nf31357Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-4 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 22.6% · Market 30.4%Edge -7.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 77.4% · Market 73.4%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 15.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nf31357Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-4 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 14.3% · Market 11.7%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 85.7% · Market 90.6%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nf31357Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-4 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 83.8% · Market 80.2%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 18.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 16.2% · Market 23.2%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nf31357Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-4 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 71.5% · Market 66.1%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 17.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 28.5% · Market 37.1%Edge -8.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nf31357Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-4 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 51.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -126Model 45.8% · Market 56.2%Edge -10.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -126 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nf31357Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-4 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 66.9% · Market 75.4%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 33.1% · Market 28.4%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nf31357Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-4 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 58.0% · Market 67.5%Edge -9.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 42.0% · Market 36.6%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 8.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nf31357Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-4 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 87.8% · Market 84.9%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 18.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 12.2% · Market 18.0%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nf31357Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-4 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 21.2% · Market 18.0%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 78.8% · Market 84.9%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nf31357Starts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -110Model 53.0% · Market 52.4%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 -110Model 52.7% · Market 52.4%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-110 → -110Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n112f06Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -108Model 50.4% · Market 51.9%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 50.5% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-108 → -103 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n112f06Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBoston Red Sox -142Model 57.4% · Market 58.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSeattle Mariners +122Model 46.1% · Market 45.1%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +122 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n112f06Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-3 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 6.9% · Market 10.6%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 93.1% · Market 91.6%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 18.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n112f06Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 58.8% · Market 70.5%Edge -11.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 41.2% · Market 33.6%Edge +7.6% · Full Kelly 11.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n112f06Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-3 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 81.4% · Market 77.3%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 18.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 18.6% · Market 26.3%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n112f06Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-3 | PassOver 11.5 +280Model 32.8% · Market 26.3%Edge +6.5% · Full Kelly 8.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 67.2% · Market 77.3%Edge -10.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n112f06Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-3 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 65.0% · Market 58.2%Edge +6.8% · Full Kelly 17.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 35.0% · Market 45.2%Edge -10.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n112f06Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 10.7% · Market 16.9%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 89.3% · Market 85.9%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 23.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n112f06Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-3 | PassUnder 6.5 +198Model 25.0% · Market 33.6%Edge -8.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -239Model 75.0% · Market 70.5%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 15.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n112f06Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-3 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 72.9% · Market 83.0%Edge -10.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 27.1% · Market 20.1%Edge +7.0% · Full Kelly 8.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n112f06Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-3 | PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 52.0% · Market 63.2%Edge -11.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +152Model 48.0% · Market 40.2%Edge +7.8% · Full Kelly 13.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n13fae0Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassArizona Diamondbacks -107Model 51.1% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassArizona Diamondbacks +110Model 50.2% · Market 47.6%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.1%-107 → +110Logit -0.163 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n13fae0Starts | TotalOpening line 9Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9 -105Model 51.9% · Market 51.2%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -104Model 50.6% · Market 51.0%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-105 → -104 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n13fae0Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-1 | PassUnder 9.5 -121Model 51.9% · Market 54.8%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -142Model 60.4% · Market 58.7%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.9%-121 → -142Logit 0.160 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n13fae0Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-1 | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 76.0% · Market 79.2%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +313Model 24.0% · Market 24.2%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n13fae0Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-1 | PassOver 6.5 -276Model 68.5% · Market 73.4%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +229Model 31.5% · Market 30.4%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n13fae0Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 10.5 -191Model 67.0% · Market 66.1%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 33.0% · Market 37.1%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n13fae0Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 12.5 -404Model 79.9% · Market 80.2%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +331Model 20.1% · Market 23.2%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n13fae0Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 74.8% · Market 75.4%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 25.2% · Market 28.4%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n13fae0Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-1 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 90.5% · Market 91.6%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 9.5% · Market 10.6%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n13fae0Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 14.5% · Market 14.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 85.5% · Market 87.8%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n13fae0Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-1 | PassOver 13.5 +456Model 14.4% · Market 18.0%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -564Model 85.6% · Market 84.9%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n13fae0Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-1 | PassUnder 7.5 +140Model 42.7% · Market 41.7%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -168Model 57.3% · Market 62.7%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n13fae0Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +101Model 50.6% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +101Model 50.6% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+101 → +101Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66na1db19Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassColorado Rockies +124Model 44.2% · Market 44.6%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassColorado Rockies +146Model 43.7% · Market 40.6%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 5.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%+124 → +146Logit -0.163 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66na1db19Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 11.5 -103Model 48.4% · Market 50.7%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +101Model 48.3% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%-103 → +101Logit -0.040 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66na1db19Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassUnder 13.5 -228Model 72.8% · Market 69.5%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 10.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +189Model 27.2% · Market 34.6%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66na1db19Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassOver 12.5 +140Model 34.7% · Market 42.2%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -155Model 65.3% · Market 61.2%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 11.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -155 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66na1db19Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 9.5 +159Model 44.0% · Market 38.6%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 8.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 -191Model 56.0% · Market 65.6%Edge -9.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+159 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66na1db19Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 7.5 +313Model 28.2% · Market 24.2%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -381Model 71.8% · Market 79.2%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66na1db19Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 8.5 -290Model 65.4% · Market 74.4%Edge -9.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +240Model 34.6% · Market 29.4%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 7.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66na1db19Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +529Model 19.5% · Market 15.9%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -660Model 80.5% · Market 86.8%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66na1db19Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 5.5 +841Model 14.2% · Market 10.6%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -1087Model 85.8% · Market 91.6%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66na1db19Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 10.5 -142Model 49.4% · Market 59.2%Edge -9.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 +129Model 50.6% · Market 44.2%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 12.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +129 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66na1db19Starts | TotalOpening line 14.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassOver 14.5 +240Model 22.4% · Market 29.4%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 14.5 -290Model 77.6% · Market 74.4%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 12.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66na1db19Starts | TotalOpening line 15.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassUnder 15.5 -430Model 82.8% · Market 81.1%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 15.5 +351Model 17.2% · Market 22.2%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66na1db19Starts | TotalOpening line 11Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 11 -110Model 51.6% · Market 52.4%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11 +100Model 51.6% · Market 50.0%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.4%-110 → +100Logit -0.095 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66ncb2150Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -121Model 50.8% · Market 54.8%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 48.7% · Market 50.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-121 → -103 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66ncb2150Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +140Model 42.0% · Market 41.7%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTexas Rangers -162Model 62.1% · Market 61.8%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -162 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66ncb2150Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 7.3% · Market 12.7%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 92.7% · Market 89.7%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 29.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66ncb2150Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 60.3% · Market 75.4%Edge -15.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 39.7% · Market 28.4%Edge +11.3% · Full Kelly 15.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66ncb2150Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassUnder 8.5 -137Model 43.7% · Market 58.2%Edge -14.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +124Model 56.3% · Market 45.2%Edge +11.2% · Full Kelly 21.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66ncb2150Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-2 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 80.5% · Market 73.4%Edge +7.1% · Full Kelly 26.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 19.5% · Market 30.4%Edge -10.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66ncb2150Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 68.5% · Market 82.1%Edge -13.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 31.5% · Market 21.1%Edge +10.3% · Full Kelly 13.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66ncb2150Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-2 | PassOver 9.5 +181Model 46.5% · Market 35.6%Edge +10.9% · Full Kelly 16.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -228Model 53.5% · Market 69.5%Edge -16.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66ncb2150Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-2 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 88.6% · Market 84.0%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 29.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 11.4% · Market 19.0%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66ncb2150Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-2 | PassOver 6.5 -183Model 73.9% · Market 65.1%Edge +8.7% · Full Kelly 26.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +165Model 26.1% · Market 38.2%Edge -12.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n57cf3aStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +101Model 49.6% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 -103Model 49.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+101 → -103Logit 0.040 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n57cf3aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals +119Model 48.5% · Market 45.7%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals +120Model 47.8% · Market 45.5%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.2%+119 → +120Logit -0.008 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n57cf3aStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-0 | PassUnder 13.5 -458Model 76.9% · Market 82.1%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +373Model 23.1% · Market 21.1%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n57cf3aStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-0 | PassUnder 4.5 +756Model 9.5% · Market 11.7%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -967Model 90.5% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n57cf3aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-0 | PassUnder 8.5 +134Model 39.0% · Market 43.2%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -148Model 61.0% · Market 60.2%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n57cf3aStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-0 | PassUnder 5.5 +425Model 16.7% · Market 19.0%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -525Model 83.3% · Market 84.0%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n57cf3aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-0 | PassOver 6.5 -340Model 77.4% · Market 77.3%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +280Model 22.6% · Market 26.3%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n57cf3aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-0 | PassUnder 7.5 +173Model 32.1% · Market 36.6%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -208Model 67.9% · Market 67.5%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n57cf3aStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-0 | PassUnder 10.5 -161Model 55.4% · Market 61.7%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +146Model 44.6% · Market 41.7%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n57cf3aStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-0 | PassUnder 11.5 -239Model 63.9% · Market 70.5%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +198Model 36.1% · Market 33.6%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n57cf3aStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-0 | PassOver 3.5 -1684Model 93.9% · Market 94.4%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1241Model 6.1% · Market 7.5%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1684 → +1241 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n57cf3aStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-0 | PassUnder 12.5 -322Model 69.8% · Market 76.3%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +266Model 30.2% · Market 27.3%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n57cf3aStarts | TotalOpening line 9Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9 -105Model 49.3% · Market 51.2%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9 -104Model 49.2% · Market 51.0%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-105 → -104 | 5 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n09c380Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 -102Model 49.0% · Market 50.5%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 -103Model 48.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.2%-102 → -103Logit 0.010 | 3 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n09c380Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds +109Model 47.7% · Market 47.9%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +132Model 44.1% · Market 43.1%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.7%+109 → +132Logit -0.192 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n09c380Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassOver 10.5 +129Model 39.0% · Market 43.7%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -142Model 61.0% · Market 59.2%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 5.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n09c380Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassUnder 11.5 -218Model 69.3% · Market 68.6%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +181Model 30.7% · Market 35.6%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n09c380Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassUnder 3.5 +1241Model 7.6% · Market 7.5%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1684Model 92.4% · Market 94.4%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1241 → -1684 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n09c380Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 5.5 -525Model 79.9% · Market 84.0%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +425Model 20.1% · Market 19.0%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n09c380Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassUnder 7.5 +181Model 37.0% · Market 35.6%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -218Model 63.0% · Market 68.6%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n09c380Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 6.5 -360Model 73.3% · Market 78.3%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +296Model 26.7% · Market 25.3%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n09c380Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 4.5 -1087Model 88.2% · Market 91.6%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +841Model 11.8% · Market 10.6%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n09c380Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassOver 13.5 +373Model 18.7% · Market 21.1%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -458Model 81.3% · Market 82.1%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n09c380Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassOver 12.5 +252Model 25.2% · Market 28.4%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -306Model 74.8% · Market 75.4%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n09c380Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassUnder 8.5 +140Model 44.3% · Market 42.2%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -155Model 55.7% · Market 61.2%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -155 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n023b07Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +152Model 41.9% · Market 39.7%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +164Model 37.8% · Market 37.9%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.8%+152 → +164Logit -0.076 | 4 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n023b07Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +101Model 51.1% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.6% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+101 → +105Logit -0.039 | 4 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n023b07Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won13-8 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 9.5% · Market 8.5%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 90.5% · Market 93.5%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1074 → -1428 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n023b07Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost13-8 | PassOver 7.5 -168Model 57.3% · Market 63.2%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +152Model 42.7% · Market 40.2%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n023b07Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won13-8 | PassUnder 13.5 -609Model 85.5% · Market 85.9%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +490Model 14.5% · Market 16.9%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n023b07Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost13-8 | PassOver 4.5 -788Model 85.6% · Market 88.7%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +625Model 14.4% · Market 13.8%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n023b07Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost13-8 | PassOver 6.5 -276Model 68.5% · Market 73.4%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +229Model 31.5% · Market 30.4%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n023b07Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost13-8 | PassOver 9.5 +124Model 39.7% · Market 45.7%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -137Model 60.3% · Market 57.8%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -137 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n023b07Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won13-8 | PassUnder 12.5 -404Model 79.8% · Market 80.2%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +331Model 20.2% · Market 23.2%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n023b07Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost13-8 | PassOver 5.5 -404Model 76.0% · Market 80.2%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +331Model 24.0% · Market 23.2%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n023b07Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won13-8 | PassUnder 10.5 -199Model 66.9% · Market 66.6%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +166Model 33.1% · Market 37.6%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n023b07Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won13-8 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 74.7% · Market 75.4%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 25.3% · Market 28.4%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n6370ecStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassArizona Diamondbacks +114Model 50.1% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassArizona Diamondbacks +114Model 51.6% · Market 46.7%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 9.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+114 → +114Logit 0.000 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n6370ecStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -112Model 49.4% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -107Model 50.7% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → -107 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n6370ecStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-1 | PassOver 9.5 +208Model 42.2% · Market 32.5%Edge +9.7% · Full Kelly 14.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -251Model 57.8% · Market 71.5%Edge -13.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n6370ecStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-1 | PassUnder 12.5 -719Model 77.8% · Market 87.8%Edge -9.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +574Model 22.2% · Market 14.8%Edge +7.3% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n6370ecStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-1 | PassUnder 8.5 -148Model 47.8% · Market 60.7%Edge -12.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +134Model 52.2% · Market 42.7%Edge +9.5% · Full Kelly 16.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n6370ecStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-1 | PassUnder 4.5 +373Model 13.2% · Market 21.1%Edge -7.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -458Model 86.8% · Market 82.1%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 26.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n6370ecStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-1 | PassOver 3.5 -719Model 91.4% · Market 87.8%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 29.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 8.6% · Market 14.8%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n6370ecStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-1 | PassOver 5.5 -251Model 77.7% · Market 71.5%Edge +6.2% · Full Kelly 21.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +208Model 22.3% · Market 32.5%Edge -10.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n6370ecStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-1 | PassUnder 11.5 -489Model 72.5% · Market 83.0%Edge -10.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +398Model 27.5% · Market 20.1%Edge +7.4% · Full Kelly 9.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n6370ecStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-1 | PassOver 10.5 +280Model 35.5% · Market 26.3%Edge +9.2% · Full Kelly 12.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -340Model 64.5% · Market 77.3%Edge -12.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n6370ecStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-1 | PassUnder 6.5 +152Model 29.4% · Market 40.2%Edge -10.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -168Model 70.6% · Market 63.2%Edge +7.4% · Full Kelly 21.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n6370ecStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -105Model 50.7% · Market 51.2%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -105Model 50.7% · Market 51.2%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-105 → -105Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nc8ec28Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.3% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +105Model 50.5% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → +105 | 3 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nc8ec28Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels +140Model 45.5% · Market 41.7%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Angels +162Model 43.7% · Market 38.2%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 8.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.5%+140 → +162Logit -0.146 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nc8ec28Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-3 | PassUnder 6.5 +140Model 30.9% · Market 42.2%Edge -11.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +140Model 30.9% · Market 41.7%Edge -10.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%+140 → +140Logit -0.022 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nc8ec28Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +373Model 14.1% · Market 21.1%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -458Model 85.9% · Market 82.1%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 21.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nc8ec28Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-3 | PassOver 5.5 -239Model 76.5% · Market 70.5%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 20.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +198Model 23.5% · Market 33.6%Edge -10.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nc8ec28Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-3 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 73.9% · Market 84.9%Edge -11.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 26.1% · Market 18.0%Edge +8.1% · Full Kelly 9.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nc8ec28Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-3 | PassOver 12.5 +625Model 20.9% · Market 13.8%Edge +7.1% · Full Kelly 8.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -788Model 79.1% · Market 88.7%Edge -9.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nc8ec28Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-3 | PassUnder 8.5 -161Model 49.5% · Market 62.2%Edge -12.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +146Model 50.5% · Market 41.2%Edge +9.4% · Full Kelly 16.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nc8ec28Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-3 | PassUnder 9.5 -263Model 59.4% · Market 72.5%Edge -13.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +218Model 40.6% · Market 31.4%Edge +9.1% · Full Kelly 13.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nc8ec28Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -360Model 66.1% · Market 78.3%Edge -12.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +296Model 33.9% · Market 25.3%Edge +8.6% · Full Kelly 11.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nc8ec28Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-3 | PassOver 3.5 -719Model 90.7% · Market 87.8%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 23.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 9.3% · Market 14.8%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nc8ec28Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -102Model 50.6% · Market 50.5%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -102Model 50.6% · Market 50.5%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-102 → -102Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n49b25aStarts | TotalOpening line 11Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 11 -102Model 51.4% · Market 50.5%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11 -105Model 51.0% · Market 51.2%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.7%-102 → -105Logit 0.029 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n49b25aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassColorado Rockies +114Model 45.5% · Market 46.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassColorado Rockies +130Model 44.4% · Market 43.5%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.2%+114 → +130Logit -0.131 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n49b25aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassUnder 8.5 +229Model 31.4% · Market 30.4%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -265Model 68.6% · Market 73.0%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -265 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n49b25aStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 11.5 +105Model 44.4% · Market 48.8%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -121Model 55.6% · Market 55.3%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -121 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n49b25aStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassOver 10.5 -142Model 53.0% · Market 58.7%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 -131Model 53.0% · Market 57.7%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%-142 → -131Logit -0.040 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n49b25aStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassUnder 9.5 +152Model 40.5% · Market 39.7%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 -168Model 59.5% · Market 63.7%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n49b25aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 6.5 -660Model 82.7% · Market 86.8%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +529Model 17.3% · Market 15.9%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n49b25aStarts | TotalOpening line 15.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 15.5 +331Model 19.8% · Market 23.2%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 15.5 -404Model 80.2% · Market 80.2%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n49b25aStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 13.5 +189Model 30.4% · Market 34.6%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -228Model 69.6% · Market 69.5%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n49b25aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassUnder 7.5 +313Model 25.4% · Market 24.2%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -381Model 74.6% · Market 79.2%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n49b25aStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 12.5 +134Model 38.2% · Market 42.7%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -168Model 61.8% · Market 62.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n49b25aStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassOver 5.5 -967Model 87.5% · Market 90.6%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +756Model 12.5% · Market 11.7%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n49b25aStarts | TotalOpening line 14.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassUnder 14.5 -306Model 74.6% · Market 75.4%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 14.5 +240Model 25.4% · Market 29.4%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n595343Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -104Model 49.6% · Market 51.0%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 50.1% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-104 → -107 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n595343Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago White Sox -107Model 49.6% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassHouston Astros -104Model 51.1% · Market 51.0%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -104 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n595343Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassOver 9.5 +140Model 43.7% · Market 42.2%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -161Model 56.3% · Market 61.7%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n595343Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassUnder 7.5 +134Model 38.8% · Market 43.2%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +129Model 38.8% · Market 43.7%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.5%+134 → +129Logit 0.019 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n595343Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-1 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 76.6% · Market 82.1%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 23.4% · Market 21.1%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n595343Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassOver 11.5 +280Model 28.8% · Market 26.3%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 71.2% · Market 77.3%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n595343Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-1 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 91.9% · Market 92.5%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 8.1% · Market 9.6%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +945 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n595343Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-1 | PassUnder 10.5 -218Model 63.0% · Market 68.6%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +181Model 37.0% · Market 35.6%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n595343Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassOver 6.5 -251Model 71.8% · Market 71.5%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +208Model 28.2% · Market 32.5%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n595343Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-1 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 87.5% · Market 86.8%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 12.5% · Market 15.9%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n595343Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassUnder 5.5 +296Model 21.2% · Market 25.3%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -360Model 78.8% · Market 78.3%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nc45e05Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +159Model 39.7% · Market 38.6%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +176Model 34.5% · Market 36.2%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.4%+159 → +176Logit -0.102 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nc45e05Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -107Model 50.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -112Model 50.8% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.1%-107 → -112Logit 0.046 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nc45e05Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-8 | PassUnder 8.5 -155Model 47.1% · Market 61.2%Edge -14.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +134Model 52.9% · Market 42.7%Edge +10.2% · Full Kelly 17.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-155 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nc45e05Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-8 | PassOver 6.5 -168Model 71.2% · Market 62.7%Edge +8.5% · Full Kelly 22.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +146Model 28.8% · Market 40.7%Edge -11.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nc45e05Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-8 | PassOver 4.5 -458Model 87.1% · Market 82.1%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 28.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +373Model 12.9% · Market 21.1%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nc45e05Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-8 | PassUnder 11.5 -525Model 71.5% · Market 84.0%Edge -12.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +425Model 28.5% · Market 19.0%Edge +9.4% · Full Kelly 11.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nc45e05Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-8 | PassOver 5.5 -251Model 78.3% · Market 71.5%Edge +6.8% · Full Kelly 23.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +208Model 21.7% · Market 32.5%Edge -10.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nc45e05Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-8 | PassOver 10.5 +280Model 36.4% · Market 26.3%Edge +10.1% · Full Kelly 13.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -340Model 63.6% · Market 77.3%Edge -13.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nc45e05Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-8 | PassOver 9.5 +208Model 43.1% · Market 32.5%Edge +10.6% · Full Kelly 15.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -251Model 56.9% · Market 71.5%Edge -14.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nc45e05Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-8 | PassOver 3.5 -719Model 91.6% · Market 87.8%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 31.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 8.4% · Market 14.8%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n8c27bcStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers -112Model 50.0% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers -106Model 52.0% · Market 51.5%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.4%-112 → -106Logit -0.055 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n8c27bcStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 50.6% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 50.3% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-107 → -107Logit 0.000 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n8c27bcStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-15 | PassUnder 7.5 +134Model 40.6% · Market 43.7%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -148Model 59.4% · Market 60.2%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n8c27bcStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-15 | PassUnder 12.5 -430Model 78.2% · Market 81.1%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +351Model 21.8% · Market 22.2%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n8c27bcStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-15 | PassUnder 10.5 -218Model 64.9% · Market 68.6%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +181Model 35.1% · Market 35.6%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n8c27bcStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-15 | PassOver 6.5 -251Model 70.2% · Market 71.5%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +208Model 29.8% · Market 32.5%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n8c27bcStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-15 | PassUnder 5.5 +296Model 22.5% · Market 25.3%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -360Model 77.5% · Market 78.3%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n8c27bcStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-15 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 13.5% · Market 14.8%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 86.5% · Market 87.8%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n8c27bcStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-15 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 27.1% · Market 28.4%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 72.9% · Market 75.4%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n8c27bcStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-15 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 91.2% · Market 92.5%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 8.8% · Market 10.6%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n8c27bcStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-15 | PassUnder 9.5 -155Model 58.2% · Market 61.2%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +140Model 41.8% · Market 42.2%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-155 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9e7589Starts | TotalOpening line 10Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10 -104Model 53.6% · Market 51.0%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10 -115Model 53.3% · Market 53.5%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.5%-104 → -115Logit 0.101 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9e7589Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMilwaukee Brewers -103Model 50.0% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMilwaukee Brewers +108Model 46.5% · Market 48.1%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.7%-103 → +108Logit -0.106 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9e7589Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-4 | PassOver 10.5 -107Model 47.4% · Market 51.7%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +114Model 36.2% · Market 46.7%Edge -10.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.0%-107 → +114Logit -0.199 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9e7589Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-4 | PassOver 7.5 -251Model 60.5% · Market 71.5%Edge -11.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +208Model 39.5% · Market 32.5%Edge +7.1% · Full Kelly 10.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9e7589Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-4 | PassOver 5.5 -609Model 78.2% · Market 85.9%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +490Model 21.8% · Market 16.9%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9e7589Starts | TotalOpening line 14.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-4 | PassOver 14.5 +373Model 13.0% · Market 21.1%Edge -8.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 14.5 -458Model 87.0% · Market 82.1%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 27.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9e7589Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-4 | PassUnder 6.5 +351Model 28.8% · Market 22.2%Edge +6.6% · Full Kelly 8.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -430Model 71.2% · Market 81.1%Edge -9.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9e7589Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-4 | PassOver 8.5 -191Model 52.9% · Market 65.6%Edge -12.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +159Model 47.1% · Market 38.6%Edge +8.4% · Full Kelly 13.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +159 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9e7589Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-4 | PassUnder 13.5 -360Model 83.4% · Market 78.3%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 23.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +296Model 16.6% · Market 25.3%Edge -8.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9e7589Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-4 | PassUnder 9.5 +109Model 51.6% · Market 47.9%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 7.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 -116Model 43.0% · Market 54.2%Edge -11.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+109 → -116 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9e7589Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-4 | PassUnder 11.5 -183Model 71.9% · Market 65.1%Edge +6.7% · Full Kelly 20.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +165Model 28.1% · Market 38.2%Edge -10.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9e7589Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-4 | PassOver 4.5 -1428Model 87.1% · Market 93.5%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +1074Model 12.9% · Market 8.5%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1428 → +1074 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9e7589Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-4 | PassUnder 12.5 -239Model 77.2% · Market 70.5%Edge +6.7% · Full Kelly 22.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +198Model 22.8% · Market 33.6%Edge -10.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nda9d38Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -107Model 51.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 +101Model 51.6% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%-107 → +101Logit -0.078 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nda9d38Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMiami Marlins -116Model 51.0% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins +102Model 53.4% · Market 49.5%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 7.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.2%-116 → +102Logit -0.168 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nda9d38Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassUnder 6.5 +331Model 29.6% · Market 23.2%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 8.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -404Model 70.4% · Market 80.2%Edge -9.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nda9d38Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -126Model 64.7% · Market 56.2%Edge +8.5% · Full Kelly 20.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +114Model 35.3% · Market 47.3%Edge -12.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-126 → +114 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nda9d38Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 4.5 -1236Model 86.6% · Market 92.5%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +945Model 13.4% · Market 9.6%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +945 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nda9d38Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassUnder 11.5 -199Model 72.7% · Market 66.6%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 18.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +166Model 27.3% · Market 37.6%Edge -10.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nda9d38Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassOver 13.5 +313Model 16.1% · Market 24.2%Edge -8.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -381Model 83.9% · Market 79.2%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 22.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nda9d38Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 8.5 -175Model 52.0% · Market 64.2%Edge -12.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +158Model 48.0% · Market 39.2%Edge +8.8% · Full Kelly 15.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nda9d38Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassUnder 12.5 -276Model 78.0% · Market 73.4%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 17.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +229Model 22.0% · Market 30.4%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nda9d38Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassUnder 7.5 +208Model 40.4% · Market 32.5%Edge +8.0% · Full Kelly 11.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -251Model 59.6% · Market 71.5%Edge -11.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nda9d38Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 3.5 -2042Model 91.3% · Market 95.3%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1464Model 8.7% · Market 6.4%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-2042 → +1464 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nda9d38Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 5.5 -609Model 77.6% · Market 85.9%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +490Model 22.4% · Market 16.9%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nda9d38Starts | TotalOpening line 10Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10 -115Model 53.3% · Market 53.5%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10 -115Model 53.3% · Market 53.5%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-115 → -115Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n8ca5c6Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBoston Red Sox -137Model 56.1% · Market 57.8%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBoston Red Sox -118Model 54.5% · Market 54.1%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.7%-137 → -118Logit -0.149 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n8ca5c6Starts | TotalOpening line 7Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7 -118Model 53.0% · Market 54.1%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +102Model 51.1% · Market 49.5%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-118 → +102 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n8ca5c6Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-6 | PassUnder 12.5 -869Model 75.7% · Market 89.7%Edge -14.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +685Model 24.3% · Market 12.7%Edge +11.6% · Full Kelly 13.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n8ca5c6Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-6 | PassOver 10.5 +313Model 38.1% · Market 24.2%Edge +13.9% · Full Kelly 18.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -381Model 61.9% · Market 79.2%Edge -17.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n8ca5c6Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-6 | PassUnder 5.5 +189Model 20.5% · Market 34.6%Edge -14.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -228Model 79.5% · Market 69.5%Edge +10.0% · Full Kelly 32.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n8ca5c6Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-6 | PassOver 8.5 -112Model 49.6% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -183Model 45.2% · Market 65.6%Edge -20.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → -183 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n8ca5c6Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-6 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 7.8% · Market 15.9%Edge -8.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 92.2% · Market 86.8%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 40.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n8ca5c6Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +114Model 47.9% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +140Model 27.3% · Market 41.7%Edge -14.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.1%+114 → +140Logit -0.205 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n8ca5c6Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -279Model 55.2% · Market 74.0%Edge -18.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +240Model 44.8% · Market 29.5%Edge +15.3% · Full Kelly 21.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-279 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n8ca5c6Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +351Model 12.0% · Market 22.2%Edge -10.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -430Model 88.0% · Market 81.1%Edge +6.8% · Full Kelly 36.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n8ca5c6Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-6 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 29.9% · Market 18.0%Edge +11.9% · Full Kelly 14.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 70.1% · Market 84.9%Edge -14.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n8ca5c6Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 +101Model 50.6% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +109Model 51.1% · Market 47.9%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%+101 → +109Logit -0.076 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb34b55Starts | TotalOpening line 10Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10 -106Model 52.5% · Market 51.5%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -105Model 51.1% · Market 51.2%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-106 → -105 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb34b55Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals +146Model 52.9% · Market 40.6%Edge +12.3% · Full Kelly 20.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals +126Model 49.2% · Market 44.3%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 8.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.6%+146 → +126Logit 0.147 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb34b55Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-9 | PassUnder 10.5 -131Model 61.3% · Market 57.3%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 10.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +114Model 38.7% · Market 46.7%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +114 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb34b55Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-9 | PassUnder 5.5 +490Model 20.2% · Market 16.9%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -609Model 79.8% · Market 85.9%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb34b55Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-9 | PassUnder 6.5 +331Model 26.9% · Market 23.2%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -430Model 73.1% · Market 81.1%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb34b55Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-9 | PassOver 3.5 -2580Model 92.3% · Market 96.3%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1775Model 7.7% · Market 5.3%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-2580 → +1775 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb34b55Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-9 | PassOver 7.5 -251Model 62.8% · Market 71.5%Edge -8.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +208Model 37.2% · Market 32.5%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 7.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb34b55Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-9 | PassOver 13.5 +331Model 18.5% · Market 23.2%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -404Model 81.5% · Market 80.2%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 6.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb34b55Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-9 | PassUnder 12.5 -263Model 75.1% · Market 72.5%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 9.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +218Model 24.9% · Market 31.4%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb34b55Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-9 | PassUnder 4.5 +945Model 11.8% · Market 9.6%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -1428Model 88.2% · Market 93.5%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+945 → -1428 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb34b55Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-9 | PassUnder 11.5 -199Model 69.5% · Market 66.6%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 8.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +166Model 30.5% · Market 37.6%Edge -7.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb34b55Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-9 | PassOver 8.5 -175Model 55.4% · Market 64.2%Edge -8.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +158Model 44.6% · Market 39.2%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 9.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb34b55Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 +101Model 51.1% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -103Model 51.3% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+101 → -103Logit 0.040 | 3 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n0fff39Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Mets +119Model 44.8% · Market 45.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Mets +116Model 44.8% · Market 46.3%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.6%+119 → +116Logit 0.026 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n0fff39Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +100Model 50.4% · Market 50.0%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +100Model 50.4% · Market 50.0%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+100 → +100Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n0fff39Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 12.2% · Market 12.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 87.8% · Market 89.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n0fff39Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 29.1% · Market 30.4%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 70.9% · Market 74.4%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n0fff39Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 80.3% · Market 82.1%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 19.7% · Market 21.1%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n0fff39Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 84.8% · Market 85.9%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 15.2% · Market 16.9%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n0fff39Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 18.2% · Market 19.0%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 81.8% · Market 84.0%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n0fff39Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 26.7% · Market 29.4%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 73.3% · Market 74.4%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n0fff39Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 8.5 -137Model 57.3% · Market 58.2%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +124Model 42.7% · Market 45.2%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n0fff39Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassOver 9.5 +188Model 33.0% · Market 35.2%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -209Model 67.0% · Market 68.1%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+188 → -209 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n0fff39Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 37.5% · Market 37.6%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 62.5% · Market 66.6%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n0fff39Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.8% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 50.5% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%-103 → +101Logit -0.040 | 3 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n64e4d8Starts | TotalOpening line 9Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9 -104Model 49.9% · Market 51.0%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9 -105Model 49.9% · Market 51.2%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.2%-104 → -105Logit 0.010 | 3 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n64e4d8Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds +101Model 50.7% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +116Model 46.3% · Market 46.3%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.4%+101 → +116Logit -0.138 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n64e4d8Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassUnder 9.5 -107Model 51.1% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -126Model 51.6% · Market 55.8%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +4.1%-107 → -126Logit 0.163 | 5 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n64e4d8Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 5.5 -489Model 81.6% · Market 83.0%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +398Model 18.4% · Market 20.1%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n64e4d8Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 10.5 +146Model 41.7% · Market 41.2%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -161Model 58.3% · Market 62.2%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n64e4d8Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 13.5 -489Model 79.3% · Market 83.0%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +398Model 20.7% · Market 20.1%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n64e4d8Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 3.5 -2042Model 93.2% · Market 95.3%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1464Model 6.8% · Market 6.4%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-2042 → +1464 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n64e4d8Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassUnder 6.5 +266Model 24.7% · Market 27.3%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -322Model 75.3% · Market 76.3%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n64e4d8Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 12.5 +280Model 27.5% · Market 26.3%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -340Model 72.5% · Market 77.3%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n64e4d8Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 7.5 +166Model 34.6% · Market 37.6%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -199Model 65.4% · Market 66.6%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n64e4d8Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 11.5 +226Model 33.2% · Market 31.1%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -252Model 66.8% · Market 72.0%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+226 → -252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n64e4d8Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 8.5 +119Model 41.7% · Market 45.7%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -142Model 58.3% · Market 58.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n64e4d8Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 4.5 -1087Model 89.4% · Market 91.6%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +841Model 10.6% · Market 10.6%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66na5c0fdStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Francisco Giants +134Model 41.7% · Market 42.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants +144Model 42.5% · Market 41.0%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.8%+134 → +144Logit -0.072 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66na5c0fdStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -108Model 50.5% · Market 51.9%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -108Model 50.5% · Market 51.9%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-108 → -108Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66na5c0fdStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won12-13 | PassUnder 6.5 +152Model 31.2% · Market 40.2%Edge -9.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -168Model 68.8% · Market 63.2%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 16.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66na5c0fdStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost12-13 | PassOver 8.5 +134Model 50.1% · Market 43.2%Edge +6.9% · Full Kelly 12.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -142Model 49.9% · Market 59.7%Edge -9.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66na5c0fdStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won12-13 | PassUnder 9.5 -251Model 59.9% · Market 71.5%Edge -11.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +198Model 40.1% · Market 33.6%Edge +6.5% · Full Kelly 9.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66na5c0fdStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost12-13 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 90.7% · Market 88.7%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 17.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 9.3% · Market 13.8%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66na5c0fdStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost12-13 | PassOver 10.5 +266Model 33.4% · Market 27.3%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 8.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -322Model 66.6% · Market 76.3%Edge -9.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66na5c0fdStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost12-13 | PassOver 5.5 -251Model 76.3% · Market 71.5%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 16.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +208Model 23.7% · Market 32.5%Edge -8.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66na5c0fdStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won12-13 | PassUnder 4.5 +373Model 14.3% · Market 21.1%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -458Model 85.7% · Market 82.1%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 20.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66na5c0fdStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won12-13 | PassUnder 11.5 -489Model 74.4% · Market 83.0%Edge -8.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +398Model 25.6% · Market 20.1%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66na5c0fdStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -103Model 49.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 49.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -107 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nc9f5bdStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassToronto Blue Jays +146Model 40.0% · Market 40.6%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassToronto Blue Jays +154Model 47.6% · Market 39.4%Edge +8.2% · Full Kelly 13.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.3%+146 → +154Logit -0.053 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nc9f5bdStarts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -115Model 51.3% · Market 53.5%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +102Model 50.2% · Market 49.5%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-115 → +102 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nc9f5bdStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -208Model 64.8% · Market 67.6%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -200Model 64.8% · Market 67.1%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%-208 → -200Logit -0.022 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nc9f5bdStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-6 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 16.8% · Market 16.9%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 83.2% · Market 85.9%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nc9f5bdStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-6 | PassUnder 8.5 -131Model 55.0% · Market 57.7%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +119Model 45.0% · Market 45.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +119 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nc9f5bdStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 35.5% · Market 37.6%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 64.5% · Market 66.6%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nc9f5bdStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 78.5% · Market 82.1%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 21.5% · Market 21.1%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nc9f5bdStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 16.9% · Market 19.0%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 83.1% · Market 84.0%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nc9f5bdStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-6 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 72.6% · Market 73.4%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 27.4% · Market 30.4%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nc9f5bdStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-6 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 28.7% · Market 29.4%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 71.3% · Market 74.4%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nc9f5bdStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-6 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 88.8% · Market 89.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 11.2% · Market 12.7%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nc9f5bdStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.2% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 50.4% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%-103 → +101Logit -0.040 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nb9213eStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassArizona Diamondbacks -116Model 51.5% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassArizona Diamondbacks +100Model 51.0% · Market 50.0%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.7%-116 → +100Logit -0.148 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nb9213eStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.5% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.0% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+101 → +101Logit 0.000 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nb9213eStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-1 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 63.1% · Market 64.2%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +159Model 36.9% · Market 38.6%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +159 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nb9213eStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-1 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 22.9% · Market 24.2%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 77.1% · Market 79.2%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nb9213eStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-1 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 54.6% · Market 58.2%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 45.4% · Market 45.2%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nb9213eStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-1 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 16.0% · Market 16.9%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 84.0% · Market 85.9%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nb9213eStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-1 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 66.0% · Market 69.5%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 34.0% · Market 34.6%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nb9213eStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-1 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 73.9% · Market 76.3%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 26.1% · Market 27.3%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nb9213eStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-1 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 89.4% · Market 91.6%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 10.6% · Market 10.6%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nb9213eStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-1 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 82.0% · Market 83.0%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 18.0% · Market 20.1%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nb9213eStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-1 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 30.3% · Market 33.6%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 69.7% · Market 70.5%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n41ae73Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 49.4% · Market 45.7%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.6% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.1%+119 → +105Logit 0.125 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n41ae73Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels +134Model 47.8% · Market 42.7%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 8.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Yankees -122Model 55.4% · Market 54.9%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -122 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n41ae73Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-10 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 31.5% · Market 36.6%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 68.5% · Market 67.5%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n41ae73Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-10 | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 50.4% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +119Model 49.8% · Market 46.2%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 7.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → +119 | 5 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n41ae73Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-10 | PassOver 9.5 +166Model 39.9% · Market 37.7%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 60.1% · Market 65.6%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n41ae73Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-10 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 24.0% · Market 29.4%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 76.0% · Market 74.4%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n41ae73Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-10 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 14.5% · Market 19.0%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 85.5% · Market 84.0%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 9.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n41ae73Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-10 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 20.4% · Market 18.0%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 79.6% · Market 84.9%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n41ae73Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-10 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 25.5% · Market 23.2%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 74.5% · Market 80.2%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n41ae73Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-10 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 33.2% · Market 30.4%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 66.8% · Market 73.4%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n41ae73Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-10 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 90.5% · Market 89.7%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 7.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 9.5% · Market 12.7%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n6750baStarts | TotalOpening line 11Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 11 -110Model 51.5% · Market 52.4%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11 -110Model 51.5% · Market 52.4%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-110 → -110Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n6750baStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassColorado Rockies +124Model 45.5% · Market 44.6%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBaltimore Orioles -118Model 53.9% · Market 54.1%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -118 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n6750baStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-1 | PassUnder 10.5 -112Model 50.5% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 -126Model 51.1% · Market 56.2%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → -126 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n6750baStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-1 | PassUnder 12.5 -175Model 63.7% · Market 63.6%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +146Model 36.3% · Market 40.7%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n6750baStarts | TotalOpening line 14.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-1 | PassOver 14.5 +252Model 23.7% · Market 28.4%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 14.5 -306Model 76.3% · Market 75.4%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n6750baStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-1 | PassUnder 6.5 +490Model 18.4% · Market 16.9%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -609Model 81.6% · Market 85.9%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n6750baStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-1 | PassOver 9.5 -168Model 57.6% · Market 63.2%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 +152Model 42.4% · Market 40.2%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n6750baStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-1 | PassUnder 8.5 +218Model 33.1% · Market 31.4%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -263Model 66.9% · Market 72.5%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n6750baStarts | TotalOpening line 15.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-1 | PassOver 15.5 +373Model 18.4% · Market 21.1%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 15.5 -458Model 81.6% · Market 82.1%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n6750baStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-1 | PassUnder 7.5 +296Model 26.9% · Market 25.3%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -360Model 73.1% · Market 78.3%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n6750baStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-1 | PassUnder 5.5 +685Model 13.4% · Market 12.7%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -869Model 86.6% · Market 89.7%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n6750baStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-1 | PassUnder 13.5 -251Model 71.4% · Market 71.5%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +198Model 28.6% · Market 33.6%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n6750baStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-1 | PassUnder 11.5 -126Model 57.6% · Market 56.2%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +114Model 42.4% · Market 47.3%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-126 → +114 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n6134a3Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago White Sox -103Model 48.2% · Market 50.7%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago White Sox +114Model 47.0% · Market 46.7%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%-103 → +114Logit -0.161 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n6134a3Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -112Model 49.7% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 50.1% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → -107 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n6134a3Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassUnder 5.5 +313Model 21.6% · Market 24.2%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 78.4% · Market 79.2%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n6134a3Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassOver 12.5 +351Model 22.9% · Market 22.2%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -430Model 77.1% · Market 81.1%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n6134a3Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassUnder 7.5 +140Model 39.4% · Market 42.2%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -155Model 60.6% · Market 61.2%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -155 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n6134a3Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassOver 9.5 +140Model 43.1% · Market 42.2%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -155Model 56.9% · Market 61.2%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -155 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n6134a3Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassOver 11.5 +280Model 28.3% · Market 26.3%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 71.7% · Market 77.3%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n6134a3Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +218Model 28.7% · Market 31.4%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -263Model 71.3% · Market 72.5%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n6134a3Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 91.7% · Market 92.5%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 8.3% · Market 10.6%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n6134a3Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 12.8% · Market 14.8%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 87.2% · Market 87.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n6134a3Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassOver 10.5 +181Model 36.4% · Market 35.6%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -218Model 63.6% · Market 68.6%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n3487a3Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +189Model 40.6% · Market 34.6%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 9.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +181Model 36.5% · Market 35.6%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+189 → +181Logit 0.043 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n3487a3Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 49.7% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -103Model 50.7% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -103 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n3487a3Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-8 | PassOver 11.5 +425Model 27.2% · Market 19.0%Edge +8.2% · Full Kelly 10.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -525Model 72.8% · Market 84.0%Edge -11.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n3487a3Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-8 | PassOver 8.5 +140Model 51.7% · Market 42.2%Edge +9.5% · Full Kelly 17.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -155Model 48.3% · Market 61.2%Edge -12.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -155 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n3487a3Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-8 | PassUnder 9.5 -251Model 58.2% · Market 71.5%Edge -13.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +208Model 41.8% · Market 32.5%Edge +9.3% · Full Kelly 13.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n3487a3Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-8 | PassOver 3.5 -719Model 91.2% · Market 87.8%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 28.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 8.8% · Market 14.8%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n3487a3Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-8 | PassUnder 4.5 +373Model 13.4% · Market 21.1%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -458Model 86.6% · Market 82.1%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 25.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n3487a3Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-8 | PassOver 10.5 +280Model 35.1% · Market 26.3%Edge +8.8% · Full Kelly 12.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -340Model 64.9% · Market 77.3%Edge -12.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n3487a3Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-8 | PassOver 5.5 -251Model 77.5% · Market 71.5%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 20.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +198Model 22.5% · Market 33.6%Edge -11.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n3487a3Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-8 | PassOver 6.5 -161Model 70.2% · Market 62.2%Edge +8.0% · Full Kelly 22.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +146Model 29.8% · Market 41.2%Edge -11.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n4f1133Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMilwaukee Brewers -112Model 50.8% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago Cubs -107Model 50.3% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → -107 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n4f1133Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 -107Model 48.3% · Market 51.7%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +101Model 48.3% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%-107 → +101Logit -0.078 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n4f1133Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-17 | PassUnder 8.5 +140Model 49.2% · Market 41.7%Edge +7.5% · Full Kelly 12.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +134Model 49.2% · Market 43.2%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 11.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.5%+140 → +134Logit 0.063 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n4f1133Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-17 | PassUnder 7.5 +181Model 41.5% · Market 35.6%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 9.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -218Model 58.5% · Market 68.6%Edge -10.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n4f1133Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-17 | PassUnder 4.5 +756Model 13.9% · Market 11.7%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -967Model 86.1% · Market 90.6%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n4f1133Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-17 | PassOver 10.5 +134Model 34.1% · Market 43.2%Edge -9.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -148Model 65.9% · Market 60.2%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 15.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n4f1133Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-17 | PassUnder 12.5 -306Model 78.9% · Market 75.4%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 14.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +252Model 21.1% · Market 28.4%Edge -7.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n4f1133Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-17 | PassOver 13.5 +351Model 15.2% · Market 22.2%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -430Model 84.8% · Market 81.1%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 19.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n4f1133Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-17 | PassOver 11.5 +189Model 26.3% · Market 34.6%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -228Model 73.7% · Market 69.5%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 13.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n4f1133Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-17 | PassOver 3.5 -1684Model 90.9% · Market 94.4%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1241Model 9.1% · Market 7.5%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1684 → +1241 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n4f1133Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-17 | PassOver 6.5 -360Model 69.4% · Market 78.3%Edge -8.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +296Model 30.6% · Market 25.3%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 7.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n4f1133Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-17 | PassUnder 5.5 +425Model 23.2% · Market 19.0%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -525Model 76.8% · Market 84.0%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n75203dStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers +109Model 49.6% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers +105Model 49.0% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+109 → +105Logit 0.037 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n75203dStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -116Model 50.7% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.3% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.9%-116 → +105Logit -0.197 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n75203dStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-11 | PassUnder 6.5 +229Model 30.0% · Market 30.4%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -276Model 70.0% · Market 73.4%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n75203dStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-11 | PassUnder 10.5 -199Model 65.2% · Market 66.6%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +166Model 34.8% · Market 37.6%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n75203dStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-11 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 73.2% · Market 75.4%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 26.8% · Market 28.4%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n75203dStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-11 | PassOver 4.5 -788Model 86.4% · Market 88.7%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 13.6% · Market 14.8%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n75203dStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-11 | PassOver 7.5 -168Model 59.1% · Market 63.2%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +152Model 40.9% · Market 40.2%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n75203dStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-11 | PassUnder 5.5 +331Model 22.7% · Market 23.2%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -404Model 77.3% · Market 80.2%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n75203dStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-11 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 91.1% · Market 92.5%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 8.9% · Market 9.6%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +945 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n75203dStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-11 | PassOver 9.5 +129Model 41.5% · Market 44.2%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -142Model 58.5% · Market 59.2%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n75203dStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-11 | PassOver 12.5 +331Model 21.6% · Market 23.2%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -404Model 78.4% · Market 80.2%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n06e8d3Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals -107Model 49.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins -112Model 53.4% · Market 52.8%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -112 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n06e8d3Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.1% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +101Model 50.1% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+105 → +101Logit 0.039 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n06e8d3Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -148Model 56.4% · Market 60.7%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +140Model 43.6% · Market 42.2%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n06e8d3Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassUnder 12.5 -430Model 76.7% · Market 81.1%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +351Model 23.3% · Market 22.2%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n06e8d3Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 71.3% · Market 77.3%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +280Model 28.7% · Market 26.3%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n06e8d3Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassUnder 5.5 +313Model 21.4% · Market 24.2%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 78.6% · Market 79.2%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n06e8d3Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -208Model 63.2% · Market 67.5%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 36.8% · Market 36.6%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n06e8d3Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 87.3% · Market 87.8%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 12.7% · Market 14.8%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n06e8d3Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassUnder 13.5 -660Model 82.9% · Market 86.8%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +529Model 17.1% · Market 15.9%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n06e8d3Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassOver 6.5 -263Model 71.6% · Market 72.5%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +218Model 28.4% · Market 31.4%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n06e8d3Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 91.8% · Market 91.6%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 8.2% · Market 10.6%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n06e8d3Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassOver 7.5 -155Model 61.0% · Market 61.2%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +140Model 39.0% · Market 42.2%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-155 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n5cee2cStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSeattle Mariners +124Model 43.1% · Market 44.6%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSeattle Mariners +134Model 45.7% · Market 42.7%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%+124 → +134Logit -0.077 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n5cee2cStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.7% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.1% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-103 → -103Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n5cee2cStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-9 | PassOver 9.5 +197Model 43.2% · Market 34.6%Edge +8.6% · Full Kelly 14.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -219Model 56.8% · Market 69.1%Edge -12.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+197 → -219 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n5cee2cStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-9 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -137Model 46.8% · Market 58.2%Edge -11.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+109 → -137 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n5cee2cStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-9 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 28.4% · Market 21.1%Edge +7.2% · Full Kelly 9.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 71.6% · Market 82.1%Edge -10.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n5cee2cStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-9 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 63.5% · Market 75.4%Edge -11.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 36.5% · Market 28.4%Edge +8.0% · Full Kelly 11.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n5cee2cStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-9 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 8.3% · Market 13.8%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 91.7% · Market 88.7%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 26.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n5cee2cStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-9 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 21.6% · Market 30.4%Edge -8.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 78.4% · Market 73.4%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 18.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n5cee2cStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-9 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 12.8% · Market 20.1%Edge -7.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 87.2% · Market 84.0%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 20.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n5cee2cStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-9 | PassUnder 6.5 +159Model 28.6% · Market 38.6%Edge -10.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -191Model 71.4% · Market 65.6%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 16.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+159 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n5cee2cStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-9 | PassUnder 12.5 -660Model 77.0% · Market 86.8%Edge -9.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +529Model 23.0% · Market 15.9%Edge +7.1% · Full Kelly 8.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n757079Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Mets +124Model 42.0% · Market 44.6%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Mets +159Model 36.6% · Market 38.6%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -6.0%+124 → +159Logit -0.249 | 5 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n757079Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.8% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%-103 → +101Logit -0.040 | 3 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n757079Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 90.0% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 10.0% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n757079Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -200Model 61.9% · Market 67.1%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +180Model 38.1% · Market 36.2%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n757079Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 25.1% · Market 29.4%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 74.9% · Market 74.4%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n757079Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 76.0% · Market 82.1%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 24.0% · Market 21.1%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n757079Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 15.2% · Market 19.0%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 84.8% · Market 84.0%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n757079Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 31.6% · Market 29.4%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 68.4% · Market 74.4%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n757079Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 19.0% · Market 16.9%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 81.0% · Market 85.9%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n757079Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 67.2% · Market 66.6%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 32.8% · Market 37.6%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n757079Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 48.4% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -131Model 51.9% · Market 57.3%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+109 → -131 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n963b5aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds +105Model 49.1% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +124Model 46.0% · Market 44.6%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.1%+105 → +124Logit -0.166 | 5 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n963b5aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +109Model 50.0% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +109Model 49.8% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+109 → +109Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n963b5aStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 7.6% · Market 8.5%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 92.4% · Market 93.5%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1074 → -1428 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n963b5aStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-0 | PassOver 13.5 +456Model 18.8% · Market 18.0%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -564Model 81.2% · Market 84.9%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n963b5aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-0 | PassOver 6.5 -290Model 73.4% · Market 74.4%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +240Model 26.6% · Market 29.4%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n963b5aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-0 | PassOver 7.5 -175Model 63.1% · Market 63.6%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +146Model 36.9% · Market 40.7%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n963b5aStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-0 | PassOver 12.5 +296Model 25.3% · Market 25.3%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -360Model 74.7% · Market 78.3%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n963b5aStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-0 | PassOver 10.5 +158Model 39.1% · Market 39.2%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -175Model 60.9% · Market 64.2%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n963b5aStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-0 | PassUnder 5.5 +351Model 20.0% · Market 22.2%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -430Model 80.0% · Market 81.1%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n963b5aStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-0 | PassUnder 11.5 -276Model 69.2% · Market 73.4%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +229Model 30.8% · Market 30.4%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n963b5aStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-0 | PassUnder 4.5 +625Model 11.7% · Market 13.8%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -788Model 88.3% · Market 88.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n963b5aStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-0 | PassOver 9.5 +109Model 48.9% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +124Model 45.9% · Market 45.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.2%+109 → +124Logit -0.087 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Bravesevt_129uptitsa537f1Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 50.8% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.4% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%-112 → +105Logit -0.162 | 3 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Bravesevt_129uptitsa537f1Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAtlanta Braves -168Model 59.6% · Market 62.7%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants +173Model 35.7% · Market 36.6%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +173 | 5 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Bravesevt_129uptitsa537f1Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-3 | PassUnder 6.5 +250Model 30.3% · Market 29.0%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +240Model 30.3% · Market 29.5%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.5%+250 → +240Logit 0.025 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Bravesevt_129uptitsa537f1Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-3 | PassUnder 11.5 -265Model 73.5% · Market 73.0%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -276Model 73.5% · Market 74.0%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%-265 → -276Logit 0.050 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Bravesevt_129uptitsa537f1Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-3 | PassOver 5.5 -404Model 77.0% · Market 80.8%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +351Model 23.0% · Market 22.3%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Bravesevt_129uptitsa537f1Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-3 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 9.0% · Market 8.5%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 91.0% · Market 93.5%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1074 → -1428 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Bravesevt_129uptitsa537f1Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +685Model 13.7% · Market 12.7%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -869Model 86.3% · Market 89.7%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Bravesevt_129uptitsa537f1Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-3 | PassOver 9.5 +124Model 41.1% · Market 45.2%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -137Model 58.9% · Market 58.2%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -137 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Bravesevt_129uptitsa537f1Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-3 | PassUnder 12.5 -381Model 78.7% · Market 79.2%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +313Model 21.3% · Market 24.2%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Bravesevt_129uptitsa537f1Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-3 | PassOver 7.5 -168Model 58.7% · Market 63.7%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +152Model 41.3% · Market 39.7%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Bravesevt_129uptitsa537f1Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-3 | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 34.4% · Market 37.1%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -191Model 65.6% · Market 66.1%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9bcfe1Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +109Model 47.6% · Market 47.9%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +109Model 48.2% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+109 → +109Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9bcfe1Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago Cubs -137Model 56.5% · Market 57.8%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago Cubs -161Model 60.0% · Market 61.7%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.9%-137 → -161Logit 0.161 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9bcfe1Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-5 | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 51.4% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -148Model 50.3% · Market 60.2%Edge -9.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -148 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9bcfe1Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-5 | PassUnder 7.5 +166Model 42.1% · Market 37.6%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 7.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -199Model 57.9% · Market 66.6%Edge -8.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9bcfe1Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-5 | PassOver 10.5 +146Model 33.7% · Market 41.2%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -161Model 66.3% · Market 62.2%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 12.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9bcfe1Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-5 | PassOver 6.5 -340Model 69.0% · Market 77.3%Edge -8.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +280Model 31.0% · Market 26.3%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9bcfe1Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-5 | PassUnder 5.5 +398Model 23.5% · Market 20.1%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -489Model 76.5% · Market 83.0%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9bcfe1Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-5 | PassOver 12.5 +266Model 20.7% · Market 27.3%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -340Model 79.3% · Market 77.3%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 8.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9bcfe1Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +756Model 14.1% · Market 11.7%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -967Model 85.9% · Market 90.6%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9bcfe1Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -251Model 74.1% · Market 71.5%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 9.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +208Model 25.9% · Market 32.5%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9bcfe1Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-5 | PassUnder 13.5 -489Model 85.1% · Market 83.0%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 12.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +398Model 14.9% · Market 20.1%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9bcfe1Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-5 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 90.7% · Market 93.5%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 9.3% · Market 8.5%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1428 → +1074 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66ne9c548Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels +159Model 41.6% · Market 38.6%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Angels +146Model 42.2% · Market 40.6%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.0%+159 → +146Logit 0.085 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66ne9c548Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.7% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-103 → -103Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66ne9c548Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -209Model 61.0% · Market 68.1%Edge -7.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +188Model 39.0% · Market 35.2%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-209 → +188 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66ne9c548Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-2 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 32.4% · Market 28.4%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 67.6% · Market 75.4%Edge -7.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66ne9c548Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +159Model 32.4% · Market 38.6%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -191Model 67.6% · Market 65.6%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+159 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66ne9c548Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.0% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +129Model 48.9% · Market 44.2%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 9.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.6%+101 → +129Logit -0.225 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66ne9c548Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 75.2% · Market 82.1%Edge -6.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 24.8% · Market 22.2%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66ne9c548Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-2 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 19.8% · Market 16.9%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 80.2% · Market 85.9%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66ne9c548Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 90.0% · Market 88.7%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 11.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 10.0% · Market 13.8%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66ne9c548Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassOver 4.5 -489Model 84.9% · Market 83.0%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 11.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 15.1% · Market 20.1%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66ne9c548Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 75.2% · Market 73.4%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 24.8% · Market 30.4%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1d6dcStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 +105Model 51.8% · Market 48.8%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 +101Model 51.8% · Market 49.8%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+105 → +101Logit 0.039 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1d6dcStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +134Model 43.9% · Market 42.7%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +124Model 48.0% · Market 44.6%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.9%+134 → +124Logit 0.077 | 9 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1d6dcStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-5 | PassUnder 10.5 -121Model 53.5% · Market 54.8%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -131Model 66.5% · Market 56.7%Edge +9.8% · Full Kelly 22.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.0%-121 → -131Logit 0.079 | 11 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1d6dcStarts | TotalOpening line 14.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-5 | PassUnder 14.5 -458Model 88.6% · Market 82.1%Edge +6.5% · Full Kelly 36.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 14.5 +373Model 11.4% · Market 21.1%Edge -9.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1d6dcStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-5 | PassUnder 13.5 -360Model 85.2% · Market 78.3%Edge +6.9% · Full Kelly 31.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +296Model 14.8% · Market 25.3%Edge -10.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1d6dcStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-5 | PassOver 5.5 -660Model 76.3% · Market 86.8%Edge -10.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +529Model 23.7% · Market 15.9%Edge +7.8% · Full Kelly 9.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1d6dcStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -183Model 74.3% · Market 65.6%Edge +8.7% · Full Kelly 27.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +166Model 25.7% · Market 37.7%Edge -11.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1d6dcStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-5 | PassUnder 8.5 +159Model 49.8% · Market 38.6%Edge +11.2% · Full Kelly 18.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -191Model 50.2% · Market 65.6%Edge -15.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+159 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1d6dcStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-5 | PassOver 12.5 +218Model 20.6% · Market 31.4%Edge -10.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -263Model 79.4% · Market 72.5%Edge +7.0% · Full Kelly 25.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1d6dcStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-5 | PassOver 4.5 -1428Model 85.7% · Market 93.5%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +1074Model 14.3% · Market 8.5%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1428 → +1074 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1d6dcStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-5 | PassOver 6.5 -430Model 68.9% · Market 81.1%Edge -12.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +351Model 31.1% · Market 22.2%Edge +8.9% · Full Kelly 11.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1d6dcStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-5 | PassOver 7.5 -263Model 57.9% · Market 72.5%Edge -14.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +218Model 42.1% · Market 31.4%Edge +10.7% · Full Kelly 15.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n9bf7ffStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +101Model 52.1% · Market 49.8%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +109Model 51.8% · Market 47.9%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 7.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%+101 → +109Logit -0.076 | 7 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n9bf7ffStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassHouston Astros +105Model 50.4% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassHouston Astros +105Model 47.2% · Market 48.8%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+105 → +105Logit 0.000 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n9bf7ffStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 6.5 -290Model 60.5% · Market 74.4%Edge -13.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +240Model 39.5% · Market 29.4%Edge +10.1% · Full Kelly 14.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n9bf7ffStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 86.9% · Market 93.5%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 13.1% · Market 8.5%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1428 → +1074 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n9bf7ffStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassOver 11.5 +240Model 18.1% · Market 29.4%Edge -11.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -290Model 81.9% · Market 74.4%Edge +7.5% · Full Kelly 29.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n9bf7ffStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +685Model 19.5% · Market 12.7%Edge +6.7% · Full Kelly 7.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -869Model 80.5% · Market 89.7%Edge -9.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n9bf7ffStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 7.5 -168Model 48.6% · Market 63.2%Edge -14.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +152Model 51.4% · Market 40.2%Edge +11.2% · Full Kelly 19.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n9bf7ffStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -191Model 75.2% · Market 65.6%Edge +9.5% · Full Kelly 27.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +159Model 24.8% · Market 38.6%Edge -13.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +159 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n9bf7ffStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 9.5 +114Model 46.9% · Market 46.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +124Model 31.0% · Market 45.2%Edge -14.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.6%+114 → +124Logit -0.064 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n9bf7ffStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassOver 12.5 +313Model 13.9% · Market 24.2%Edge -10.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -381Model 86.1% · Market 79.2%Edge +6.9% · Full Kelly 33.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n9bf7ffStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 5.5 -430Model 69.1% · Market 81.1%Edge -12.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +351Model 30.9% · Market 22.2%Edge +8.7% · Full Kelly 11.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n189632Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSt. Louis Cardinals -107Model 52.4% · Market 51.7%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +109Model 51.2% · Market 47.9%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.8%-107 → +109Logit -0.154 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n189632Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 50.7% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 50.3% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+101 → +101Logit 0.000 | 7 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n189632Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 83.8% · Market 85.9%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 16.2% · Market 16.9%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n189632Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 11.5% · Market 12.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 88.5% · Market 89.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n189632Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 79.1% · Market 81.1%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 20.9% · Market 22.2%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n189632Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassOver 10.5 +250Model 28.0% · Market 29.0%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -279Model 72.0% · Market 74.0%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+250 → -279 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n189632Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 28.0% · Market 30.4%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 72.0% · Market 74.4%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n189632Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassOver 9.5 +188Model 34.5% · Market 35.2%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -209Model 65.5% · Market 68.1%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+188 → -209 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n189632Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassUnder 6.5 +159Model 36.2% · Market 38.6%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -191Model 63.8% · Market 65.6%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+159 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n189632Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 17.3% · Market 19.0%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 82.7% · Market 84.0%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n189632Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassUnder 8.5 -137Model 55.7% · Market 58.2%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +124Model 44.3% · Market 45.2%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n1dd339Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 51.5% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 50.9% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.1%-112 → -103Logit -0.084 | 7 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n1dd339Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassTexas Rangers +152Model 42.8% · Market 39.7%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTexas Rangers +140Model 39.7% · Market 41.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.0%+152 → +140Logit 0.082 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n1dd339Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-4 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 84.2% · Market 86.8%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 15.8% · Market 15.9%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n1dd339Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-4 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 81.8% · Market 82.1%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 18.2% · Market 21.1%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n1dd339Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-4 | PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 77.0% · Market 78.3%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 23.0% · Market 25.3%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n1dd339Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-4 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 10.4% · Market 9.6%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 89.6% · Market 92.5%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+945 → -1236 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n1dd339Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-4 | PassUnder 6.5 +208Model 33.8% · Market 32.5%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -251Model 66.2% · Market 71.5%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n1dd339Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-4 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 69.5% · Market 70.5%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 30.5% · Market 33.6%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n1dd339Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-4 | PassOver 9.5 +146Model 37.1% · Market 40.7%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -161Model 62.9% · Market 62.7%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n1dd339Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-4 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 74.1% · Market 77.3%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 25.9% · Market 26.3%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n1dd339Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-4 | PassUnder 7.5 +129Model 45.2% · Market 44.2%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -142Model 54.8% · Market 59.2%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n1fc839Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 50.1% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +109Model 50.0% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.8%-107 → +109Logit -0.154 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n1fc839Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMinnesota Twins -116Model 52.5% · Market 53.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago White Sox -103Model 48.0% · Market 50.7%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → -103 | 9 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n1fc839Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-5 | PassUnder 7.5 +146Model 38.2% · Market 41.2%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -161Model 61.8% · Market 62.2%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n1fc839Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-5 | PassOver 11.5 +266Model 29.5% · Market 27.3%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -322Model 70.5% · Market 76.3%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n1fc839Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-5 | PassUnder 9.5 -142Model 55.5% · Market 59.7%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +129Model 44.5% · Market 43.7%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +129 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n1fc839Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-5 | PassUnder 12.5 -430Model 76.0% · Market 81.1%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +351Model 24.0% · Market 22.2%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n1fc839Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-5 | PassOver 10.5 +166Model 37.7% · Market 37.6%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -199Model 62.3% · Market 66.6%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n1fc839Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-5 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 92.1% · Market 92.5%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 7.9% · Market 9.6%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +945 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n1fc839Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-5 | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 79.2% · Market 79.2%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +313Model 20.8% · Market 24.2%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n1fc839Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-5 | PassOver 6.5 -263Model 72.4% · Market 72.5%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +218Model 27.6% · Market 31.4%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n1fc839Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 12.2% · Market 14.8%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 87.8% · Market 87.8%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n49d3b3Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 +101Model 49.3% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +119Model 49.4% · Market 45.7%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.1%+101 → +119Logit -0.164 | 7 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n49d3b3Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Diego Padres +140Model 43.4% · Market 41.7%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Diego Padres +134Model 42.2% · Market 42.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.1%+140 → +134Logit 0.044 | 8 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n49d3b3Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -609Model 81.8% · Market 85.9%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +490Model 18.2% · Market 16.9%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n49d3b3Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassUnder 10.5 -430Model 75.1% · Market 81.1%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +351Model 24.9% · Market 22.2%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n49d3b3Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 87.0% · Market 86.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 13.0% · Market 15.9%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n49d3b3Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassUnder 8.5 -175Model 59.3% · Market 64.6%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +159Model 40.7% · Market 38.7%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +159 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n49d3b3Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassOver 6.5 -142Model 60.6% · Market 59.7%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +129Model 39.4% · Market 43.7%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +129 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n49d3b3Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassUnder 5.5 +181Model 30.8% · Market 35.6%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -218Model 69.2% · Market 68.6%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n49d3b3Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +331Model 19.4% · Market 23.2%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -404Model 80.6% · Market 80.2%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n49d3b3Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassOver 9.5 +252Model 31.1% · Market 28.4%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -306Model 68.9% · Market 75.4%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n97c673Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -103Model 49.2% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -103Model 49.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-103 → -103Logit 0.000 | 7 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n97c673Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCleveland Guardians -168Model 61.5% · Market 62.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassKansas City Royals +159Model 37.4% · Market 38.6%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +159 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n97c673Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-11 | PassUnder 5.5 +208Model 28.5% · Market 32.5%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -251Model 71.5% · Market 71.5%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n97c673Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-11 | PassOver 4.5 -458Model 82.3% · Market 82.1%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +373Model 17.7% · Market 21.1%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n97c673Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-11 | PassUnder 10.5 -340Model 72.6% · Market 77.3%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +280Model 27.4% · Market 26.3%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n97c673Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-11 | PassUnder 8.5 -148Model 56.5% · Market 60.7%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +134Model 43.5% · Market 42.7%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n97c673Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-11 | PassOver 11.5 +425Model 20.3% · Market 19.0%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -525Model 79.7% · Market 84.0%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n97c673Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-11 | PassUnder 9.5 -240Model 66.3% · Market 71.0%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +216Model 33.7% · Market 32.1%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-240 → +216 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n97c673Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-11 | PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 11.8% · Market 14.8%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -719Model 88.2% · Market 87.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n97c673Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-11 | PassUnder 6.5 +140Model 36.9% · Market 41.7%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -168Model 63.1% · Market 62.7%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66na18ed0Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -112Model 50.3% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -103Model 49.7% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → -103 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66na18ed0Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers +124Model 52.1% · Market 44.6%Edge +7.5% · Full Kelly 13.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers +134Model 49.4% · Market 42.7%Edge +6.7% · Full Kelly 11.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%+124 → +134Logit -0.077 | 9 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66na18ed0Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-1 | PassOver 8.5 +140Model 43.8% · Market 42.2%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -155Model 56.2% · Market 61.7%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -155 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66na18ed0Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-1 | PassUnder 6.5 +146Model 36.7% · Market 41.2%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -161Model 63.3% · Market 62.2%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66na18ed0Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-1 | PassUnder 5.5 +198Model 28.4% · Market 33.6%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -239Model 71.6% · Market 70.5%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66na18ed0Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-1 | PassOver 4.5 -430Model 82.3% · Market 81.1%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +351Model 17.7% · Market 22.2%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66na18ed0Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-1 | PassOver 10.5 +296Model 27.6% · Market 25.3%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -360Model 72.4% · Market 78.3%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66na18ed0Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-1 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 11.8% · Market 15.9%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 88.2% · Market 86.8%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 10.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66na18ed0Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-1 | PassUnder 9.5 -263Model 66.0% · Market 72.5%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +218Model 34.0% · Market 31.4%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66na18ed0Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-1 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 79.5% · Market 84.9%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 20.5% · Market 18.0%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66nc672bfStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.3% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.7% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+105 → +101Logit 0.039 | 7 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66nc672bfStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassToronto Blue Jays +101Model 47.9% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassToronto Blue Jays +119Model 49.1% · Market 45.7%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.1%+101 → +119Logit -0.164 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66nc672bfStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-7 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 24.7% · Market 22.2%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 75.3% · Market 81.1%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66nc672bfStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-7 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 75.4% · Market 74.4%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 24.6% · Market 29.4%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66nc672bfStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-7 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 39.0% · Market 37.1%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 61.0% · Market 66.1%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66nc672bfStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-7 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 67.8% · Market 66.6%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 32.2% · Market 37.6%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66nc672bfStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-7 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 48.7% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +124Model 48.9% · Market 45.2%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 7.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.7%+109 → +124Logit -0.108 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66nc672bfStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-7 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 19.6% · Market 18.0%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 80.4% · Market 84.9%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66nc672bfStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-7 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 90.2% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 9.8% · Market 12.7%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66nc672bfStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-7 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 14.9% · Market 18.0%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 85.1% · Market 84.9%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66nc672bfStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-7 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 32.3% · Market 30.4%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 67.7% · Market 73.4%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n40249cStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 51.3% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → +105 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n40249cStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassColorado Rockies +189Model 38.7% · Market 34.6%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassColorado Rockies +198Model 36.6% · Market 33.6%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+189 → +198Logit -0.046 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n40249cStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 74.8% · Market 77.3%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 25.2% · Market 26.3%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n40249cStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 44.3% · Market 45.2%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 55.7% · Market 58.2%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -137 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n40249cStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 81.0% · Market 83.0%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 19.0% · Market 20.1%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n40249cStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 84.7% · Market 86.8%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 15.3% · Market 15.9%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n40249cStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 61.9% · Market 64.2%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 38.1% · Market 39.2%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n40249cStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 23.9% · Market 25.3%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 76.1% · Market 78.3%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n40249cStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 89.9% · Market 91.6%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 10.1% · Market 10.6%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n40249cStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 67.1% · Market 69.5%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 32.9% · Market 34.6%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n40249cStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 31.5% · Market 33.6%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 68.5% · Market 70.5%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n628910Starts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | PendingAwaiting finalPaper stake $200 · P/L pending | Paper betNew York Yankees +124Model 53.3% · Market 44.6%Edge +8.7% · Full Kelly 15.6%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betNew York Yankees +124Model 53.3% · Market 44.6%Edge +8.7% · Full Kelly 15.6%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%+124 → +124Logit 0.000 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n628910Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Pending1-16 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 48.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 48.6% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+109 → +109Logit 0.000 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n628910Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Pending1-16 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.9% · Market 48.8%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 50.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+105 → +109Logit -0.037 | 9 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n628910Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-16 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 36.9% · Market 36.6%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 63.1% · Market 67.5%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n628910Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-16 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 82.2% · Market 84.9%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 17.8% · Market 18.0%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n628910Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-16 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 33.7% · Market 37.1%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 66.3% · Market 66.1%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n628910Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-16 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 71.4% · Market 74.4%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 28.6% · Market 29.4%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n628910Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-16 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 15.7% · Market 16.9%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 84.3% · Market 85.9%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n628910Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-16 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 20.3% · Market 22.2%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 79.7% · Market 81.1%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n628910Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-16 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 27.3% · Market 29.4%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 72.7% · Market 74.4%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n628910Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-16 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 88.1% · Market 89.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 11.9% · Market 12.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb67656Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +105Model 48.9% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +101Model 48.7% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+105 → +101Logit 0.039 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb67656Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals -103Model 48.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins +105Model 51.8% · Market 48.8%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → +105 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb67656Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.1% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -142Model 54.2% · Market 59.7%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -142 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb67656Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +685Model 12.3% · Market 12.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -967Model 87.7% · Market 90.6%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb67656Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -175Model 62.5% · Market 63.6%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +146Model 37.5% · Market 40.7%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb67656Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 8.0% · Market 8.5%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1684Model 92.0% · Market 94.4%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1074 → -1684 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb67656Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 7.5 +173Model 38.4% · Market 37.1%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -191Model 61.6% · Market 66.1%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb67656Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassOver 11.5 +208Model 29.3% · Market 32.5%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -251Model 70.7% · Market 71.5%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb67656Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassUnder 12.5 -322Model 76.1% · Market 76.3%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +266Model 23.9% · Market 27.3%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb67656Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassUnder 13.5 -489Model 82.4% · Market 83.0%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +398Model 17.6% · Market 20.1%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb67656Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 5.5 +373Model 20.9% · Market 21.1%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -458Model 79.1% · Market 82.1%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb67656Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassOver 6.5 -340Model 72.2% · Market 77.3%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +280Model 27.8% · Market 26.3%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66ncad5d1Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.2% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.0%+105 → -103Logit 0.078 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66ncad5d1Starts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Lost4-2Paper stake $200 · P/L pending | Paper betLos Angeles Angels +198Model 42.0% · Market 33.6%Edge +8.4% · Full Kelly 12.7%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betLos Angeles Angels +198Model 42.0% · Market 33.6%Edge +8.4% · Full Kelly 12.7%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%+198 → +198Logit 0.000 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66ncad5d1Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 67.2% · Market 68.6%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 32.8% · Market 35.6%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66ncad5d1Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 10.2% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 89.8% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66ncad5d1Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 75.8% · Market 81.1%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 24.2% · Market 22.2%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66ncad5d1Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 74.8% · Market 75.4%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 25.2% · Market 28.4%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66ncad5d1Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 84.6% · Market 85.9%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 15.4% · Market 16.9%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66ncad5d1Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 68.2% · Market 71.5%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 31.8% · Market 32.5%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66ncad5d1Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 61.6% · Market 64.6%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +159Model 38.4% · Market 38.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +159 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66ncad5d1Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Paper Kelly tracked | Won4-2Paper stake $200 · P/L pending | Paper betOver 7.5 -126Model 65.2% · Market 55.8%Edge +9.5% · Full Kelly 21.4%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 44.0% · Market 45.2%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-126 → +124 | 9 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66ncad5d1Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 19.3% · Market 16.9%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 80.7% · Market 85.9%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n1feb5eStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.8% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 50.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+105 → +109Logit -0.037 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n1feb5eStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassArizona Diamondbacks -121Model 56.4% · Market 54.8%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants +114Model 47.7% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-121 → +114 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n1feb5eStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-7 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 36.6% · Market 36.6%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -191Model 63.4% · Market 65.6%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n1feb5eStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-7 | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 43.8% · Market 46.7%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -126Model 56.2% · Market 55.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -126 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1f5eeStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Paper Kelly tracked | PendingAwaiting finalPaper stake $131 · P/L pending | Paper betUnder 9.5 +101Model 56.9% · Market 49.8%Edge +7.1% · Full Kelly 14.2%Policy Kelly 1.3% · $131 | PassUnder 9.5 -103Model 51.6% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+101 → -103Logit 0.040 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1f5eeStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +119Model 44.0% · Market 45.7%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +124Model 47.0% · Market 44.6%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+119 → +124Logit -0.041 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1f5eeStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-3 | PassUnder 8.5 +152Model 48.4% · Market 40.2%Edge +8.3% · Full Kelly 14.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -168Model 51.6% · Market 63.7%Edge -12.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1f5eeStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-3 | PassUnder 7.5 +208Model 40.8% · Market 32.5%Edge +8.4% · Full Kelly 12.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -251Model 59.2% · Market 71.5%Edge -12.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1f5eeStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-3 | PassOver 6.5 -404Model 70.0% · Market 80.2%Edge -10.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +331Model 30.0% · Market 23.2%Edge +6.8% · Full Kelly 8.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1f5eeStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-3 | PassUnder 3.5 +1775Model 8.9% · Market 5.3%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -2580Model 91.1% · Market 96.3%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1775 → -2580 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1f5eeStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-3 | PassOver 10.5 +124Model 34.9% · Market 45.7%Edge -10.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -137Model 65.1% · Market 57.8%Edge +7.3% · Full Kelly 17.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -137 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1f5eeStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-3 | PassOver 11.5 +166Model 27.0% · Market 37.6%Edge -10.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -199Model 73.0% · Market 66.6%Edge +6.5% · Full Kelly 19.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1f5eeStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +1074Model 13.6% · Market 8.5%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -1428Model 86.4% · Market 93.5%Edge -7.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1074 → -1428 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1f5eeStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-3 | PassUnder 13.5 -381Model 84.2% · Market 79.2%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 24.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +313Model 15.8% · Market 24.2%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1f5eeStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-3 | PassOver 12.5 +218Model 21.7% · Market 31.4%Edge -9.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -263Model 78.3% · Market 72.5%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 21.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1f5eeStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-3 | PassUnder 5.5 +490Model 22.8% · Market 16.9%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 7.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -609Model 77.2% · Market 85.9%Edge -8.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n6e4b63Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Yankees -126Model 55.8% · Market 55.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBoston Red Sox +124Model 45.8% · Market 44.6%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-126 → +124 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n6e4b63Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.3% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +114Model 49.9% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → +114 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n6e4b63Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-9 | PassOver 9.5 +238Model 35.4% · Market 30.0%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 8.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -265Model 64.6% · Market 73.5%Edge -8.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+238 → -265 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n6e4b63Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-9 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 11.1% · Market 15.9%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 88.9% · Market 86.8%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 15.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n6e4b63Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-9 | PassOver 8.5 +152Model 45.3% · Market 39.7%Edge +5.6% · Full Kelly 9.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -168Model 54.7% · Market 64.2%Edge -9.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n6e4b63Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-9 | PassUnder 10.5 -381Model 71.1% · Market 79.2%Edge -8.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +313Model 28.9% · Market 24.2%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n6e4b63Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-9 | PassOver 6.5 -148Model 64.7% · Market 59.7%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 12.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +124Model 35.3% · Market 44.6%Edge -9.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n6e4b63Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-9 | PassUnder 5.5 +181Model 27.2% · Market 35.6%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -218Model 72.8% · Market 68.6%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 13.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n6e4b63Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-9 | PassOver 4.5 -404Model 83.2% · Market 80.2%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 15.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +331Model 16.8% · Market 23.2%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n6e4b63Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-9 | PassUnder 11.5 -609Model 78.3% · Market 85.9%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +490Model 21.7% · Market 16.9%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 5.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n7867cdStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassTexas Rangers +140Model 41.2% · Market 41.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTexas Rangers +146Model 40.6% · Market 40.6%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+140 → +146Logit -0.042 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n7867cdStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.1% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+109 → +105Logit 0.037 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n7867cdStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 38.0% · Market 37.6%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 62.0% · Market 65.6%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n7867cdStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 81.1% · Market 84.9%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 18.9% · Market 18.0%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n7867cdStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 31.4% · Market 31.4%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 68.6% · Market 72.5%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n7867cdStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 10.1% · Market 10.6%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 89.9% · Market 91.6%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n7867cdStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 15.3% · Market 16.9%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 84.7% · Market 85.9%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n7867cdStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 25.2% · Market 28.4%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 74.8% · Market 75.4%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n7867cdStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 44.3% · Market 46.2%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 55.8% · Market 57.3%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -131 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n7867cdStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 23.9% · Market 23.2%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 76.1% · Market 80.2%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n7867cdStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 67.1% · Market 68.6%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 32.9% · Market 35.6%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n998c90Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +114Model 50.7% · Market 46.7%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 7.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.8% · Market 48.8%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.1%+114 → +105Logit 0.082 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n998c90Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Mets -137Model 57.4% · Market 57.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassHouston Astros +129Model 42.8% · Market 43.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +129 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n998c90Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 13.5% · Market 18.0%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 86.5% · Market 84.9%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n998c90Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 8.5 -126Model 60.0% · Market 56.2%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 9.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 40.0% · Market 47.3%Edge -7.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-126 → +114 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n998c90Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 75.7% · Market 72.5%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 11.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 24.3% · Market 31.4%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n998c90Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 86.6% · Market 90.6%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 13.4% · Market 11.7%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n998c90Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 31.3% · Market 28.4%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 68.7% · Market 75.4%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n998c90Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 82.3% · Market 80.2%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 11.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 17.7% · Market 23.2%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n998c90Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 59.9% · Market 67.5%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 40.1% · Market 36.6%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n998c90Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -200Model 69.6% · Market 67.1%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 8.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +180Model 30.4% · Market 36.2%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n998c90Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 80.2% · Market 84.9%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 19.8% · Market 18.0%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n9c3a92Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.0% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.8% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+105 → +101Logit 0.039 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n9c3a92Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassTampa Bay Rays -137Model 58.9% · Market 57.8%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTampa Bay Rays -137Model 57.6% · Market 57.8%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-137 → -137Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n9c3a92Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 37.5% · Market 36.6%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -208Model 62.5% · Market 67.5%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n9c3a92Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 74.4% · Market 74.4%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 25.6% · Market 29.4%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n9c3a92Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-7 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 76.6% · Market 81.1%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 23.4% · Market 22.2%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n9c3a92Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 84.4% · Market 84.9%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 15.6% · Market 19.0%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n9c3a92Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-7 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 69.0% · Market 74.4%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 31.0% · Market 29.4%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n9c3a92Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-7 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 10.3% · Market 12.7%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 89.7% · Market 89.7%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n9c3a92Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-7 | PassUnder 8.5 -131Model 52.5% · Market 57.3%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +119Model 47.5% · Market 46.2%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +119 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n9c3a92Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 66.6% · Market 66.6%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +180Model 33.4% · Market 36.7%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nce732dStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 50.2% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+109 → +105Logit 0.037 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nce732dStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCleveland Guardians -154Model 59.1% · Market 60.6%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassKansas City Royals +140Model 40.9% · Market 41.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-154 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nce732dStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-3 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 21.2% · Market 22.2%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 78.8% · Market 81.1%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nce732dStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-3 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 11.3% · Market 12.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 88.6% · Market 89.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nce732dStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-3 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 82.9% · Market 84.9%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 17.1% · Market 18.0%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nce732dStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-3 | PassOver 9.5 +180Model 34.9% · Market 36.2%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -200Model 65.1% · Market 67.1%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+180 → -200 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nce732dStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-3 | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 48.7% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 44.7% · Market 46.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.0%+114 → +114Logit -0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nce732dStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-3 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 27.6% · Market 29.4%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 72.4% · Market 74.4%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nce732dStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-3 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 83.5% · Market 85.9%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 16.5% · Market 16.9%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nce732dStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-3 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 35.8% · Market 37.6%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 64.2% · Market 66.6%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nce732dStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-3 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 28.4% · Market 29.4%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 71.6% · Market 74.4%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nd0d3b0Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.3% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +101Model 50.3% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+105 → +101Logit 0.039 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nd0d3b0Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAtlanta Braves -228Model 67.6% · Market 69.5%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAtlanta Braves -239Model 68.2% · Market 70.5%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%-228 → -239Logit 0.047 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nd0d3b0Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -142Model 58.5% · Market 58.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -142Model 58.5% · Market 59.2%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.5%-142 → -142Logit 0.021 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nd0d3b0Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 13.5 +456Model 15.7% · Market 18.0%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -564Model 84.3% · Market 84.9%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nd0d3b0Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 12.5 +313Model 21.7% · Market 24.2%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -381Model 78.3% · Market 79.2%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nd0d3b0Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 11.5 +240Model 27.0% · Market 29.4%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -290Model 73.0% · Market 74.4%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nd0d3b0Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 91.1% · Market 93.5%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 8.9% · Market 8.5%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1428 → +1074 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nd0d3b0Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 4.5 -967Model 86.4% · Market 90.6%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +756Model 13.6% · Market 11.7%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nd0d3b0Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 7.5 -175Model 59.0% · Market 63.6%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +146Model 41.0% · Market 40.7%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nd0d3b0Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +266Model 30.0% · Market 27.3%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -322Model 70.0% · Market 76.3%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nd0d3b0Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 5.5 +351Model 22.7% · Market 22.2%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -430Model 77.3% · Market 81.1%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nd0d3b0Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -191Model 65.1% · Market 66.1%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 34.9% · Market 37.1%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n054116Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMiami Marlins -112Model 52.3% · Market 52.8%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins -112Model 51.8% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-112 → -112Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n054116Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 49.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.1% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+109 → +105Logit 0.037 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n054116Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassUnder 8.5 -131Model 47.9% · Market 56.7%Edge -8.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +119Model 52.1% · Market 46.2%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 11.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +119 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n054116Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 86.7% · Market 84.9%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 11.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 13.3% · Market 18.0%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n054116Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 70.5% · Market 67.5%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 9.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 29.5% · Market 36.6%Edge -7.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n054116Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 27.4% · Market 22.2%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 72.6% · Market 81.1%Edge -8.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n054116Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassUnder 9.5 -200Model 57.9% · Market 67.1%Edge -9.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +180Model 42.1% · Market 36.2%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 10.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n054116Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 35.4% · Market 30.4%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 7.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 64.6% · Market 73.4%Edge -8.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n054116Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 8.7% · Market 12.7%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 91.3% · Market 89.7%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 15.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n054116Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 77.7% · Market 74.4%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 12.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 22.3% · Market 29.4%Edge -7.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n9c89adStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassToronto Blue Jays -116Model 55.8% · Market 53.7%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassToronto Blue Jays -116Model 55.8% · Market 53.7%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-116 → -116Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n9c89adStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -103Model 50.4% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -107Model 50.4% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%-103 → -107Logit 0.038 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n9c89adStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 3.5 -719Model 90.1% · Market 87.8%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 19.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 9.9% · Market 14.8%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n9c89adStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 4.5 -489Model 85.0% · Market 83.0%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 11.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +373Model 15.0% · Market 21.1%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n9c89adStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 8.5 -148Model 51.4% · Market 60.2%Edge -8.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +134Model 48.6% · Market 43.2%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 10.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n9c89adStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 9.5 +198Model 38.7% · Market 33.6%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 7.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -239Model 61.3% · Market 70.5%Edge -9.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n9c89adStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 6.5 -168Model 67.6% · Market 63.2%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 13.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +152Model 32.4% · Market 40.2%Edge -7.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n9c89adStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 10.5 -322Model 67.9% · Market 76.3%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +266Model 32.1% · Market 27.3%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n9c89adStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 5.5 -263Model 75.3% · Market 72.5%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 10.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +208Model 24.7% · Market 32.5%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n9c89adStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 11.5 -489Model 75.6% · Market 83.0%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +398Model 24.4% · Market 20.1%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n7a9f52Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago Cubs -208Model 65.9% · Market 67.5%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +173Model 34.1% · Market 36.6%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n7a9f52Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +105Model 48.1% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -116Model 51.9% · Market 53.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -116 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n7a9f52Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-17 | PassUnder 6.5 +280Model 30.8% · Market 26.3%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -340Model 69.2% · Market 77.3%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n7a9f52Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-17 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 90.8% · Market 93.5%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 9.2% · Market 8.5%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1428 → +1074 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n7a9f52Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-17 | PassUnder 11.5 -251Model 73.8% · Market 71.5%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 8.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +208Model 26.2% · Market 32.5%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n7a9f52Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-17 | PassOver 8.5 -148Model 50.5% · Market 60.2%Edge -9.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +134Model 49.5% · Market 43.2%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 11.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n7a9f52Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-17 | PassOver 5.5 -489Model 76.7% · Market 83.0%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +398Model 23.3% · Market 20.1%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n7a9f52Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-17 | PassUnder 12.5 -322Model 79.0% · Market 76.3%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 11.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +266Model 21.0% · Market 27.3%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n7a9f52Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-17 | PassOver 7.5 -200Model 58.2% · Market 67.1%Edge -8.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +180Model 41.8% · Market 36.2%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 9.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n7a9f52Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-17 | PassUnder 4.5 +756Model 14.0% · Market 11.7%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -967Model 86.0% · Market 90.6%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n7a9f52Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-17 | PassOver 10.5 +134Model 34.0% · Market 42.7%Edge -8.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -161Model 66.0% · Market 61.7%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 11.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n8ef583Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 48.7% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 48.7% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.1%+114 → +105Logit 0.082 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n8ef583Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSt. Louis Cardinals -126Model 58.4% · Market 55.8%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals -126Model 58.4% · Market 55.8%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-126 → -126Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n8ef583Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 64.4% · Market 68.6%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 35.6% · Market 35.6%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n8ef583Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 16.6% · Market 18.0%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 83.4% · Market 84.9%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n8ef583Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 47.3% · Market 46.8%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 52.7% · Market 56.7%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -131 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n8ef583Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 11.3% · Market 11.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 88.7% · Market 91.6%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n8ef583Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 65.0% · Market 65.1%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +165Model 35.0% · Market 38.2%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n8ef583Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 83.0% · Market 85.9%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 17.0% · Market 16.9%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n8ef583Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 78.7% · Market 79.2%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 21.3% · Market 24.2%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n8ef583Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 27.5% · Market 28.4%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 72.5% · Market 75.4%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n8ef583Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 28.6% · Market 31.4%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 71.4% · Market 72.5%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n5115ccStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMinnesota Twins -112Model 52.1% · Market 52.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMinnesota Twins -112Model 52.1% · Market 52.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-112 → -112Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n5115ccStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +114Model 48.6% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +114Model 48.6% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+114 → +114Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n5115ccStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassOver 6.5 -340Model 72.3% · Market 77.3%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +280Model 27.7% · Market 26.3%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n5115ccStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassOver 11.5 +208Model 29.5% · Market 32.5%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -251Model 70.5% · Market 71.5%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n5115ccStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +756Model 12.3% · Market 11.7%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -967Model 87.7% · Market 90.6%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n5115ccStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 13.5 -525Model 82.3% · Market 84.0%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +425Model 17.7% · Market 19.0%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n5115ccStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 7.5 +159Model 38.2% · Market 38.6%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -191Model 61.8% · Market 65.6%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+159 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n5115ccStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 5.5 +373Model 20.8% · Market 21.1%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -458Model 79.2% · Market 82.1%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n5115ccStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassOver 8.5 -131Model 54.4% · Market 57.3%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +119Model 45.6% · Market 46.2%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +119 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n5115ccStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassOver 3.5 -1684Model 92.1% · Market 94.4%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1241Model 7.9% · Market 7.5%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1684 → +1241 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n5115ccStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassOver 12.5 +280Model 24.0% · Market 26.3%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -340Model 76.0% · Market 77.3%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n5115ccStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -168Model 62.4% · Market 63.2%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +152Model 37.6% · Market 40.2%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n746f37Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers +152Model 46.9% · Market 39.7%Edge +7.2% · Full Kelly 12.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers +152Model 46.9% · Market 39.7%Edge +7.2% · Full Kelly 12.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+152 → +152Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n746f37Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 +114Model 49.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +114Model 49.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+114 → +114Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n746f37Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +331Model 17.3% · Market 23.2%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -404Model 82.7% · Market 80.2%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 12.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n746f37Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 11.5% · Market 15.9%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 88.5% · Market 86.8%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 12.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n746f37Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -404Model 71.7% · Market 80.2%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +331Model 28.3% · Market 23.2%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n746f37Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 9.5 +252Model 34.7% · Market 28.4%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 8.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -306Model 65.3% · Market 75.4%Edge -10.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n746f37Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 11.5 +490Model 21.1% · Market 16.9%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -609Model 78.9% · Market 85.9%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n746f37Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 8.5 -200Model 55.5% · Market 68.1%Edge -12.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +189Model 44.5% · Market 35.2%Edge +9.4% · Full Kelly 15.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n746f37Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 6.5 -148Model 64.0% · Market 60.7%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +134Model 36.0% · Market 42.7%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n746f37Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 5.5 -228Model 72.1% · Market 69.5%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 8.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +189Model 27.9% · Market 34.6%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66na1d8eaStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -101Model 50.0% · Market 50.2%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -101Model 50.0% · Market 50.2%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-101 → -101Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66na1d8eaStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Yankees -107Model 53.8% · Market 51.7%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Yankees -107Model 53.8% · Market 51.7%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-107 → -107Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66na1d8eaStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-0 | PassUnder 6.5 +158Model 34.4% · Market 39.2%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -175Model 65.6% · Market 64.2%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66na1d8eaStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-0 | PassOver 10.5 +266Model 29.8% · Market 27.5%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -322Model 70.2% · Market 76.4%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66na1d8eaStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-0 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 10.8% · Market 13.8%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 89.2% · Market 88.7%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66na1d8eaStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-0 | PassOver 9.5 +197Model 36.3% · Market 34.1%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -219Model 63.7% · Market 69.1%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+197 → -219 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66na1d8eaStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-0 | PassOver 11.5 +398Model 22.4% · Market 20.3%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -489Model 77.6% · Market 83.2%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66na1d8eaStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-0 | PassUnder 8.5 -148Model 53.8% · Market 60.2%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +129Model 46.2% · Market 43.7%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +129 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66na1d8eaStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-0 | PassOver 5.5 -252Model 73.5% · Market 72.0%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 6.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +226Model 26.5% · Market 31.1%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-252 → +226 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66na1d8eaStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-0 | PassOver 4.5 -489Model 83.8% · Market 83.0%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 16.3% · Market 20.1%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Washington Nationalsevt_129xrc99n1da01a1 stored snapshots | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | PendingAwaiting finalPaper stake $200 · P/L pending | Paper betWashington Nationals +135Model 65.3% · Market 40.9%Edge +24.4% · Full Kelly 39.6%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betWashington Nationals +135Model 65.3% · Market 40.9%Edge +24.4% · Full Kelly 39.6%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%+135 → +135Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Detroit Tigersevt_129xrc99n34a2491 stored snapshots | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | PendingAwaiting finalPaper stake $200 · P/L pending | Paper betDetroit Tigers -115Model 65.3% · Market 51.1%Edge +14.2% · Full Kelly 25.4%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betDetroit Tigers -115Model 65.3% · Market 51.1%Edge +14.2% · Full Kelly 25.4%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%-115 → -115Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Miami Marlinsevt_129xrc99n56225c1 stored snapshots | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCleveland Guardians +100Model 51.5% · Market 47.8%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCleveland Guardians +100Model 51.5% · Market 47.8%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+100 → +100Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129xrc99n76deaf1 stored snapshots | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | PendingAwaiting finalPaper stake $200 · P/L pending | Paper betBaltimore Orioles -150Model 65.3% · Market 57.5%Edge +7.8% · Full Kelly 13.2%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betBaltimore Orioles -150Model 65.3% · Market 57.5%Edge +7.8% · Full Kelly 13.2%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%-150 → -150Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129xrc99n9d74f61 stored snapshots | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | PendingAwaiting finalPaper stake $200 · P/L pending | Paper betPittsburgh Pirates -125Model 65.3% · Market 53.3%Edge +12.0% · Full Kelly 21.9%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betPittsburgh Pirates -125Model 65.3% · Market 53.3%Edge +12.0% · Full Kelly 21.9%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%-125 → -125Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129xrc99nc5fcc91 stored snapshots | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds -105Model 52.5% · Market 48.9%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds -105Model 52.5% · Market 48.9%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-105 → -105Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Chicago White Soxevt_129xrc99nc6a5c51 stored snapshots | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | PendingAwaiting finalPaper stake $158 · P/L pending | Paper betChicago White Sox -170Model 65.3% · Market 60.2%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 1.6% · $158 | Paper betChicago White Sox -170Model 65.3% · Market 60.2%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 1.6% · $158 | +0.0%-170 → -170Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Metsevt_129xrc99nd42f211 stored snapshots | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | PendingAwaiting finalPaper stake $200 · P/L pending | Paper betBoston Red Sox +115Model 51.5% · Market 44.4%Edge +7.1% · Full Kelly 9.3%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betBoston Red Sox +115Model 51.5% · Market 44.4%Edge +7.1% · Full Kelly 9.3%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%+115 → +115Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129xrc99nf788971 stored snapshots | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | PendingAwaiting finalPaper stake $200 · P/L pending | Paper betTampa Bay Rays -118Model 65.3% · Market 51.7%Edge +13.6% · Full Kelly 24.4%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betTampa Bay Rays -118Model 65.3% · Market 51.7%Edge +13.6% · Full Kelly 24.4%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%-118 → -118Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giantsevt_129xpudz32370ea1 stored snapshots | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | PendingAwaiting finalPaper stake $200 · P/L pending | Paper betSan Francisco Giants -136Model 65.3% · Market 55.1%Edge +10.2% · Full Kelly 18.1%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betSan Francisco Giants -136Model 65.3% · Market 55.1%Edge +10.2% · Full Kelly 18.1%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%-136 → -136Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Miami Marlinsevt_129xpudz33a7b051 stored snapshots | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | PendingAwaiting finalPaper stake $200 · P/L pending | Paper betMiami Marlins +113Model 65.3% · Market 44.9%Edge +20.4% · Full Kelly 34.6%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betMiami Marlins +113Model 65.3% · Market 44.9%Edge +20.4% · Full Kelly 34.6%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%+113 → +113Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Redsevt_129xpudz37fa9451 stored snapshots | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | PendingAwaiting finalPaper stake $200 · P/L pending | Paper betCincinnati Reds +138Model 48.5% · Market 40.2%Edge +8.3% · Full Kelly 11.2%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betCincinnati Reds +138Model 48.5% · Market 40.2%Edge +8.3% · Full Kelly 11.2%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%+138 → +138Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangersevt_129xpudz380fcc21 stored snapshots | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | PendingAwaiting finalPaper stake $200 · P/L pending | Paper betLos Angeles Angels +118Model 51.5% · Market 43.9%Edge +7.6% · Full Kelly 10.4%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betLos Angeles Angels +118Model 51.5% · Market 43.9%Edge +7.6% · Full Kelly 10.4%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%+118 → +118Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Detroit Tigersevt_129xpudz3870d451 stored snapshots | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | PendingAwaiting finalPaper stake $200 · P/L pending | Paper betDetroit Tigers -132Model 65.3% · Market 54.3%Edge +11.0% · Full Kelly 19.5%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betDetroit Tigers -132Model 65.3% · Market 54.3%Edge +11.0% · Full Kelly 19.5%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%-132 → -132Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twinsevt_129xpudz38e51f11 stored snapshots | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | PendingAwaiting finalPaper stake $200 · P/L pending | Paper betMinnesota Twins +109Model 65.3% · Market 45.8%Edge +19.5% · Full Kelly 33.5%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betMinnesota Twins +109Model 65.3% · Market 45.8%Edge +19.5% · Full Kelly 33.5%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%+109 → +109Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Soxevt_129xpudz3a39a8e1 stored snapshots | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago White Sox -120Model 52.5% · Market 52.0%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago White Sox -120Model 52.5% · Market 52.0%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-120 → -120Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129xpudz3af9b131 stored snapshots | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | PendingAwaiting finalPaper stake $200 · P/L pending | Paper betPittsburgh Pirates -105Model 65.3% · Market 48.9%Edge +16.4% · Full Kelly 28.9%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betPittsburgh Pirates -105Model 65.3% · Market 48.9%Edge +16.4% · Full Kelly 28.9%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%-105 → -105Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129xpudz3d052d41 stored snapshots | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassArizona Diamondbacks +104Model 47.5% · Market 46.9%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassArizona Diamondbacks +104Model 47.5% · Market 46.9%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+104 → +104Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129xpudz3e539b71 stored snapshots | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago Cubs +104Model 51.5% · Market 46.9%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago Cubs +104Model 51.5% · Market 46.9%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+104 → +104Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129xpudz3ed46881 stored snapshots | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | PendingAwaiting finalPaper stake $200 · P/L pending | Paper betSt. Louis Cardinals +113Model 65.3% · Market 44.9%Edge +20.4% · Full Kelly 34.6%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betSt. Louis Cardinals +113Model 65.3% · Market 44.9%Edge +20.4% · Full Kelly 34.6%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%+113 → +113Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at New York Metsevt_129xpudz3f30c971 stored snapshots | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | PendingAwaiting finalPaper stake $195 · P/L pending | Paper betKansas City Royals +111Model 51.5% · Market 45.3%Edge +6.2% · Full Kelly 7.8%Policy Kelly 1.9% · $195 | Paper betKansas City Royals +111Model 51.5% · Market 45.3%Edge +6.2% · Full Kelly 7.8%Policy Kelly 1.9% · $195 | +0.0%+111 → +111Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129xpudz3ffb5591 stored snapshots | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | PendingAwaiting finalPaper stake $200 · P/L pending | Paper betTampa Bay Rays -162Model 65.3% · Market 59.1%Edge +6.2% · Full Kelly 9.1%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betTampa Bay Rays -162Model 65.3% · Market 59.1%Edge +6.2% · Full Kelly 9.1%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%-162 → -162Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat. This chart begins on Aug 29, the first settled paper bet in the retained read model; it does not imply that earlier games were replayed.
- Current bankroll
- $9,966
- Cumulative
- -0.3%
- Best day
- +4.9%
- Worst day
- -4.0%
- Settled bets
- 35
Cumulative bankroll return
Daily bankroll return
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
+$318 · +3.2%
- Bets
- 32
- Record
- 15-17
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 1.5%
Full Kelly benchmark $9,709 · tracked $371 on $4,945 settled paper stake · +7.5% ROI
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 414
- Both cleared
- 4
- Rate
- 1.0%