Baseball · Game notebook · 2026-10-01
Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres
01 · Forecast
What did we believe?
No current actionable forecast is substituted for this game. The recorded checkpoints below are the historical evidence.
Moneyline · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
San Diego Padres · 50.0%-116 at polymarket · recorded edge -3.7%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Chicago Cubs · 49.0%+101 at polymarket · recorded edge -0.8%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
02 · Why
Connect the forecast to the baseball
Recorded first look · schedule-only
Tree contributions are raw log-odds toward the home team (+) or away team (−), before calibration. They are not probability points or proof of causation.
| Baseball input | Recorded value | Contribution |
|---|---|---|
Matchup edge: expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowedThe home team's expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.0646167964719393 | -0.0479 |
Matchup edge: start-of-day playoff-race leverageThe home team's start-of-day playoff-race leverage minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.10795837726331659 | -0.0477 |
Matchup edge: season run differentialThe home team's season run differential minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.654320987654321 | -0.0298 |
Matchup edge: proximity to the start-of-day playoff qualification cutoffThe home team's proximity to the start-of-day playoff qualification cutoff minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.34865186940234694 | -0.0234 |
Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better)The home team's the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better) minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | Not retained | -0.0191 |
Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk rateThe home team's the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk rate minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | Not retained | -0.0155 |
Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year defensive runsThe home team's the lineup's prior-year defensive runs minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | Not retained | +0.0132 |
Matchup edge: manager career winning percentageThe home team's manager career winning percentage minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 0.027587425898732865 | +0.0102 |
Recorded input excerpt (16 values)
- Matchup edge: expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed
- -0.0646167964719393
- Matchup edge: start-of-day playoff-race leverage
- -0.10795837726331659
- Matchup edge: season run differential
- -0.654320987654321
- Matchup edge: proximity to the start-of-day playoff qualification cutoff
- -0.34865186940234694
- Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better)
- Missing / not retained
- Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk rate
- Missing / not retained
- Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year defensive runs
- Missing / not retained
- Matchup edge: manager career winning percentage
- 0.027587425898732865
- Combined level: bulk-relief outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 9
- Combined level: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 21
- Matchup edge: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 6
- Combined level: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers
- 0.2348314606741573
- Matchup edge: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers
- 0.06966292134831459
- Combined level: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days
- 3.9235955056179774
- Matchup edge: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days
- 0.6471910112359551
- Combined level: bullpen fatigue risk
- 3.647640449438202
This bounded excerpt is not the complete feature vector. Null values are not assumed to be zero.
Recorded latest pregame · schedule-only
Tree contributions are raw log-odds toward the home team (+) or away team (−), before calibration. They are not probability points or proof of causation.
| Baseball input | Recorded value | Contribution |
|---|---|---|
Matchup edge: expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowedThe home team's expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.053659673321388546 | -0.0485 |
Matchup edge: start-of-day playoff-race leverageThe home team's start-of-day playoff-race leverage minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.13910994106456276 | -0.0438 |
Matchup edge: start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoffThe home team's start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoff minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 3 | +0.0340 |
Matchup edge: season run differentialThe home team's season run differential minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.5521472392638036 | -0.0298 |
Matchup edge: proximity to the start-of-day playoff qualification cutoffThe home team's proximity to the start-of-day playoff qualification cutoff minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.4529341724580625 | -0.0257 |
Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk rateThe home team's the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk rate minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | Not retained | -0.0155 |
Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better)The home team's the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better) minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | Not retained | -0.0143 |
Matchup edge: manager career winning percentageThe home team's manager career winning percentage minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 0.027587425898732865 | +0.0129 |
Recorded input excerpt (16 values)
- Matchup edge: expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed
- -0.053659673321388546
- Matchup edge: start-of-day playoff-race leverage
- -0.13910994106456276
- Matchup edge: start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoff
- 3
- Matchup edge: season run differential
- -0.5521472392638036
- Matchup edge: proximity to the start-of-day playoff qualification cutoff
- -0.4529341724580625
- Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk rate
- Missing / not retained
- Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better)
- Missing / not retained
- Matchup edge: manager career winning percentage
- 0.027587425898732865
- Combined level: bulk-relief outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 9
- Combined level: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 21
- Matchup edge: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 6
- Combined level: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers
- 0.2348314606741573
- Matchup edge: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers
- 0.06966292134831459
- Combined level: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days
- 3.9235955056179774
- Matchup edge: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days
- 0.6471910112359551
- Combined level: bullpen fatigue risk
- 3.647640449438202
This bounded excerpt is not the complete feature vector. Null values are not assumed to be zero.
Tabular model explanation
No game-specific tabular explanation was retained.
Eye-test prompt: which recorded input fits what you saw, and which would you question? A single win or loss cannot establish that the reasoning was right.
03 · Movement
What changed?
Recorded moneyline prices
Prices move at a fixed selection; a change in a totals line is a different contract. Collection runs independently of opening this notebook.
Latest available books and main / alternate totals
Current board coverage may no longer include completed games. An empty board is not proof that no historical quotes were collected.
Model snapshots
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 54 snapshots · +0.0% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 1 snapshots · +0.0% change
-From to
04 · Review
Price quality and result are separate questions
No settled score recorded yet.
| Market | Latest pregame selection | Forecast | Outcome | Recorded CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Chicago Cubs | 49.0% | Pending | Unavailable / incomparable |
Recorded CLV compares the first and latest eligible pregame implied probabilities under the existing history policy. It is not a verified sportsbook closing tick. Missing or changed-selection comparisons stay unavailable.
A good price can lose; a poor forecast can win. Use forecast quality and matched model cohorts to judge repeated performance.
Technical details
- Forecast captured
- Moneyline captured
- Total market captured
- Unavailable
- Score last fetched
- Unavailable
The score source does not supply a per-game update timestamp; fetch time records when this score feed was retrieved, not when the score changed.
Totals difference withheld: comparison requires known pregame capture times, with the market captured no more than 30 minutes before the forecast.
Model input coverage
This record does not contain per-game input coverage. Availability cannot be inferred from the displayed probabilities.