Baseball · Game notebook · 2026-09-30
Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros
01 · Forecast
What did we believe?
No current actionable forecast is substituted for this game. The recorded checkpoints below are the historical evidence.
Moneyline · 8 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Chicago White Sox · 47.9%+152 at polymarket · recorded edge +8.2%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Chicago White Sox · 45.3%+134 at polymarket · recorded edge +2.5%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 7.5 · 5 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 7.5 · 49.8%-112 at polymarket · recorded edge -3.0%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 7.5 · 49.9%-103 at polymarket · recorded edge -0.8%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 8.5 · 3 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 8.5 · 53.7%-142 at polymarket · recorded edge -5.5%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 8.5 · 54.1%-148 at kalshi · recorded edge -5.5%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 10.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 10.5 · 29.9%+252 at kalshi · recorded edge +1.5%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 10.5 · 70.1%-306 at kalshi · recorded edge -5.3%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 5.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 5.5 · 26.4%+218 at kalshi · recorded edge -5.1%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 5.5 · 73.6%-263 at kalshi · recorded edge +1.2%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 11.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 11.5 · 22.5%+373 at kalshi · recorded edge +1.4%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 11.5 · 77.5%-458 at kalshi · recorded edge -4.6%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 9.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 9.5 · 36.4%+189 at kalshi · recorded edge +1.8%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 9.5 · 63.6%-239 at kalshi · recorded edge -6.9%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 3.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 3.5 · 10.7%+625 at kalshi · recorded edge -3.1%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 3.5 · 89.3%-788 at kalshi · recorded edge +0.6%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 4.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 4.5 · 16.2%+398 at kalshi · recorded edge -3.9%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 4.5 · 83.8%-489 at kalshi · recorded edge +0.8%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 12.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 12.5 · 82.3%-660 at kalshi · recorded edge -4.5%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 12.5 · 17.7%+529 at kalshi · recorded edge +1.8%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 6.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 6.5 · 34.3%+158 at polymarket · recorded edge -4.9%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 6.5 · 65.7%-175 at polymarket · recorded edge +1.5%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
02 · Why
Connect the forecast to the baseball
Recorded first look · schedule-only
Tree contributions are raw log-odds toward the home team (+) or away team (−), before calibration. They are not probability points or proof of causation.
| Baseball input | Recorded value | Contribution |
|---|---|---|
Matchup edge: expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowedThe home team's expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.05870440431409624 | -0.0409 |
Matchup edge: runs allowed per game this seasonThe home team's runs allowed per game this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 0.2839506172839501 | -0.0323 |
Matchup edge: manager career winning percentageThe home team's manager career winning percentage minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 0.09090909090909088 | +0.0251 |
Matchup edge: season run differentialThe home team's season run differential minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.5432098765432098 | -0.0251 |
Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better)The home team's the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better) minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | Not retained | -0.0200 |
Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year defensive runsThe home team's the lineup's prior-year defensive runs minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | Not retained | +0.0171 |
Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk rateThe home team's the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk rate minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | Not retained | -0.0132 |
Matchup edge: start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoffThe home team's start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoff minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -3 | -0.0131 |
Recorded input excerpt (16 values)
- Matchup edge: expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed
- -0.05870440431409624
- Matchup edge: runs allowed per game this season
- 0.2839506172839501
- Matchup edge: manager career winning percentage
- 0.09090909090909088
- Matchup edge: season run differential
- -0.5432098765432098
- Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better)
- Missing / not retained
- Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year defensive runs
- Missing / not retained
- Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk rate
- Missing / not retained
- Matchup edge: start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoff
- -3
- Combined level: bulk-relief outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 29.5
- Combined level: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 23.5
- Matchup edge: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 15
- Combined level: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers
- 0.21825430849695618
- Matchup edge: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers
- 0.1429306353425362
- Combined level: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days
- 3.495670067735574
- Matchup edge: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days
- -0.9352653691160073
- Combined level: bullpen fatigue risk
- 3.291331561347852
This bounded excerpt is not the complete feature vector. Null values are not assumed to be zero.
Recorded latest pregame · confirmed-lineup
Tree contributions are raw log-odds toward the home team (+) or away team (−), before calibration. They are not probability points or proof of causation.
| Baseball input | Recorded value | Contribution |
|---|---|---|
Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better)The home team's the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better) minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -1.516821889283647 | +0.0550 |
Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year defensive runsThe home team's the lineup's prior-year defensive runs minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 18.92927636672262 | +0.0431 |
Matchup edge: expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowedThe home team's expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.06232419899558117 | -0.0407 |
Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk rateThe home team's the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk rate minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 0.08693990999999998 | +0.0400 |
Matchup edge: season run differentialThe home team's season run differential minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.5766871165644172 | -0.0394 |
Matchup edge: runs allowed per game this seasonThe home team's runs allowed per game this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 0.3006134969325158 | -0.0279 |
Matchup edge: batters the starter has faced this season (evidence weight)The home team's batters the starter has faced this season (evidence weight) minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -265 | -0.0226 |
Matchup edge: manager career winning percentageThe home team's manager career winning percentage minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 0.09090909090909088 | +0.0194 |
Recorded input excerpt (16 values)
- Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better)
- -1.516821889283647
- Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year defensive runs
- 18.92927636672262
- Matchup edge: expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed
- -0.06232419899558117
- Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk rate
- 0.08693990999999998
- Matchup edge: season run differential
- -0.5766871165644172
- Matchup edge: runs allowed per game this season
- 0.3006134969325158
- Matchup edge: batters the starter has faced this season (evidence weight)
- -265
- Matchup edge: manager career winning percentage
- 0.09090909090909088
- Combined level: bulk-relief outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 29.5
- Combined level: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 23.5
- Matchup edge: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 15
- Combined level: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers
- 0.21825430849695618
- Matchup edge: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers
- 0.1429306353425362
- Combined level: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days
- 3.495670067735574
- Matchup edge: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days
- -0.9352653691160073
- Combined level: bullpen fatigue risk
- 3.291331561347852
This bounded excerpt is not the complete feature vector. Null values are not assumed to be zero.
Tabular model explanation
No game-specific tabular explanation was retained.
Eye-test prompt: which recorded input fits what you saw, and which would you question? A single win or loss cannot establish that the reasoning was right.
03 · Movement
What changed?
Recorded moneyline prices
Prices move at a fixed selection; a change in a totals line is a different contract. Collection runs independently of opening this notebook.
Latest available books and main / alternate totals
Current board coverage may no longer include completed games. An empty board is not proof that no historical quotes were collected.
Model snapshots
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · -0.5% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 4 snapshots · +0.5% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · +0.4% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · -0.4% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · +0.4% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · -0.4% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · +0.4% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · -0.4% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 22 snapshots · +0.4% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · -0.4% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · +0.4% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · -0.3% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · +0.3% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · +0.3% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · -0.3% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · +0.3% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · -0.3% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · -0.2% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · +0.2% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 22 snapshots · -0.1% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 1 snapshots · +0.0% change
-From to
04 · Review
Price quality and result are separate questions
No settled score recorded yet.
| Market | Latest pregame selection | Forecast | Outcome | Recorded CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Chicago White Sox | 45.3% | Pending | +3.1% |
| Total 7.5 | Over 7.5 | 49.9% | Pending | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 8.5 | Under 8.5 | 54.1% | Lost | +0.5% |
| Total 10.5 | Under 10.5 | 70.1% | Won | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 5.5 | Over 5.5 | 73.6% | Won | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 11.5 | Under 11.5 | 77.5% | Won | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 9.5 | Under 9.5 | 63.6% | Lost | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 3.5 | Over 3.5 | 89.3% | Won | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 4.5 | Over 4.5 | 83.8% | Won | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 12.5 | Over 12.5 | 17.7% | Lost | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 6.5 | Over 6.5 | 65.7% | Won | Unavailable / incomparable |
Recorded CLV compares the first and latest eligible pregame implied probabilities under the existing history policy. It is not a verified sportsbook closing tick. Missing or changed-selection comparisons stay unavailable.
A good price can lose; a poor forecast can win. Use forecast quality and matched model cohorts to judge repeated performance.
Technical details
- Forecast captured
- Moneyline captured
- Total market captured
- Score last fetched
- Unavailable
The score source does not supply a per-game update timestamp; fetch time records when this score feed was retrieved, not when the score changed.
Model − market is a descriptive runs difference using the recorded total from within 30 minutes before this pregame forecast. It does not establish a qualifying paper bet.
Model input coverage
This record does not contain per-game input coverage. Availability cannot be inferred from the displayed probabilities.