Baseball · Data
Model inputs
What the model actually saw for each game, and what stood in for it. Generated .
Slate coverage
Reconciliation from the Sports Provider schedule through moneyline pricing, model eligibility, prediction, and publication.
Projection slate reconciled — Published all 4 scheduled games.
- Read
- 4
- Scheduled
- 4
- Pregame
- 4
- Priced
- 4
- Feature-ready
- 4
- Predicted
- 4
- Published
- 4
Pacific slate 2026-10-02 through 2026-10-03. A game appears once at the first stage it did not reach.
Source season coverage
Artifact-level coverage windows for every external source. Rows stay separate when one source has differently dated files, so a fresh pitcher snapshot cannot hide a stale batter history.
1 artifact has season gaps. Grey years are outside that artifact's contract; amber years are expected but absent.
- Statcast pitcher rolling history: 2015–2020
| Source artifact | Use | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB schedule, roster and score factsMLB Stats APISports Provider live MLB ingestion | serving | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ✓ |
| MLB injured-list transactionsMLB Stats APIwarehouse/mlb_injury_transactions.parquet transaction dates | training | · | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | · |
| MLB park geometry snapshotsMLB Stats APIwarehouse/mlb_park_geometry_snapshots.parquet | serving | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ✓ |
| FanGraphs scoreboard and lineupsFanGraphs scoreboardSports Provider live FanGraphs enrichment | serving | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ✓ |
| FanGraphs season leadersFanGraphs leaderboardswarehouse/fangraphs/leaders partitions | both | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| FanGraphs as-of form snapshotsFanGraphs leaderboardswarehouse/fangraphs_player_form_asof.parquet | both | · | · | · | · | · | · | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| FanGraphs projection capturesFanGraphs leaderboardswarehouse/fangraphs/projections_asof.parquet | serving | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ✓ |
| Statcast batter rolling historyBaseball Savant / Statcastwarehouse/statcast_batter_features.parquet | training | · | · | · | · | · | · | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | · |
| Statcast pitcher rolling history6 missingBaseball Savant / Statcastwarehouse/statcast_pitcher_features.parquet | training | · | · | · | · | · | · | ! | ! | ! | ! | ! | ! | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | · |
| Statcast current serving snapshotsBaseball Savant / Statcastwarehouse/serving/statcast_*_features.parquet | serving | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ✓ |
| Archived pregame weatherOpen-Meteodata/features/park_weather_archived_forecast.csv | training | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | · |
| Live venue conditionsOpen-MeteoSports Provider Game.venueConditions | serving | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ✓ |
| The Odds API pricesThe Odds APISports Provider immutable price snapshots | serving | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ✓ |
| SportsGameOdds pricesSportsGameOddsSports Provider immutable price snapshots | serving | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ✓ |
| Polymarket pricesPolymarketSports Provider immutable price snapshots | serving | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ✓ |
| Kalshi pricesKalshiSports Provider immutable price snapshots | serving | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ✓ |
| Yahoo final scoresYahoo MLB scoreboardSports Provider score reconciliation | serving | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ✓ |
| Retrosheet event training backboneRetrosheetwarehouse/games_final.parquet and event archive | training | · | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | · |
Input health
No faults. Every instrumented family either resolved or defaulted for a reason the information stage explains.
11 partial coverage cases — real measurements from the available players were used, but at least one requested lineup slot lacked park-adjusted history. This is incomplete coverage, not a complete constant fallback.
- fangraphsCurrentForm — Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians: 1/2 lineup slots measured (missing away:unknown-starter:current-form-unavailable)
- fangraphsPriorForm — Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians: 1/2 lineup slots measured (missing away:unknown-starter:prior-form-unavailable)
- starterRolling — Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians: 0/1 lineup slots measured (missing messp001:era_approx_30d-not-produced)
- fangraphsCurrentForm — Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers: 0/2 lineup slots measured (missing away:unknown-starter:current-form-unavailable, home:unknown-starter:current-form-unavailable)
- fangraphsPriorForm — Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers: 0/2 lineup slots measured (missing away:unknown-starter:prior-form-unavailable, home:unknown-starter:prior-form-unavailable)
- fangraphsCurrentForm — New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays: 1/2 lineup slots measured (missing away:unknown-starter:current-form-unavailable)
- fangraphsPriorForm — New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays: 1/2 lineup slots measured (missing away:unknown-starter:prior-form-unavailable)
- starterRolling — New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays: 0/1 lineup slots measured (missing rasmd002:era_approx_30d-not-produced)
- fangraphsCurrentForm — San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers: 1/2 lineup slots measured (missing away:unknown-starter:current-form-unavailable)
- fangraphsPriorForm — San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers: 1/2 lineup slots measured (missing away:unknown-starter:prior-form-unavailable)
- starterRolling — San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers: 0/1 lineup slots measured (missing misij001:era_approx_30d-not-produced)
| Game | Live | Bullpen fatigue | Bullpen roles | Fangraphs current form | Fangraphs prior form | Fangraphs projections | Lineup rates | Lineup state | Manager record | Manager script | Park adjusted lineup | Park factors | Pitch mix matchup xwar | Pitch mix usage | Starter rolling | Statcast batters | Statcast pitchers | Team record | Umpire form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians | 33% | bullpenFatigue: Live | bullpenRoles: Live | fangraphsCurrentForm: Partial coverage | fangraphsPriorForm: Partial coverage | fangraphsProjections: Live | lineupRates: Not yet available | lineupState: Missing (NaN) | managerRecord: Live | managerScript: Missing (NaN) | parkAdjustedLineup: Not yet available | parkFactors: Live | pitchMixMatchupXwar: Not yet available | pitchMixUsage: Not yet available | starterRolling: Partial coverage | statcastBatters: Not yet available | statcastPitchers: Not yet available | teamRecord: Live | umpireForm: Missing (NaN) |
| Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 33% | bullpenFatigue: Live | bullpenRoles: Live | fangraphsCurrentForm: Partial coverage | fangraphsPriorForm: Partial coverage | fangraphsProjections: Live | lineupRates: Not yet available | lineupState: Missing (NaN) | managerRecord: Live | managerScript: Missing (NaN) | parkAdjustedLineup: Not yet available | parkFactors: Live | pitchMixMatchupXwar: Not yet available | pitchMixUsage: Not yet available | starterRolling: Not yet available | statcastBatters: Not yet available | statcastPitchers: Not yet available | teamRecord: Live | umpireForm: Missing (NaN) |
| New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays | 33% | bullpenFatigue: Live | bullpenRoles: Live | fangraphsCurrentForm: Partial coverage | fangraphsPriorForm: Partial coverage | fangraphsProjections: Live | lineupRates: Not yet available | lineupState: Missing (NaN) | managerRecord: Live | managerScript: Missing (NaN) | parkAdjustedLineup: Not yet available | parkFactors: Live | pitchMixMatchupXwar: Not yet available | pitchMixUsage: Not yet available | starterRolling: Partial coverage | statcastBatters: Not yet available | statcastPitchers: Not yet available | teamRecord: Live | umpireForm: Missing (NaN) |
| San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers | 33% | bullpenFatigue: Live | bullpenRoles: Live | fangraphsCurrentForm: Partial coverage | fangraphsPriorForm: Partial coverage | fangraphsProjections: Live | lineupRates: Not yet available | lineupState: Missing (NaN) | managerRecord: Live | managerScript: Missing (NaN) | parkAdjustedLineup: Not yet available | parkFactors: Live | pitchMixMatchupXwar: Not yet available | pitchMixUsage: Not yet available | starterRolling: Partial coverage | statcastBatters: Not yet available | statcastPitchers: Not yet available | teamRecord: Live | umpireForm: Missing (NaN) |
- Live
- Partial coverage
- Not yet available
- Fault
- Missing (NaN)
13 families without per-game provenance
Train/serve parity covers how these features are constructed, not whether a particular live lookup resolved. Active families remain unknown here until they report per-game provenance; inactive families are called out separately.
- Historical weather — structurally cannot fabricate (8 registry columns, predict_game.py)
- Injury availability — not read by an active prediction head (15 registry columns, predict_game.py)
- Lineup war — structurally cannot fabricate (12 registry columns, predict_game.py)
- Manager script history flags — not read by an active prediction head (4 registry columns, predict_game.py)
- Official bullpen — not read by an active prediction head (18 registry columns, official_bullpen_features.official_bullpen_snapshot)
- Official pitching rates — not read by an active prediction head (18 registry columns, pitching_rate_features.official_serving_rates)
- Park orientation — not read by an active prediction head (1 registry columns, predict_game.py)
- Pitch mix interactions — structurally cannot fabricate (7 registry columns, predict_game.py)
- Player recent workload — not read by an active prediction head (16 registry columns, player_workload_features.player_workload_snapshot)
- Playoff leverage — structurally cannot fabricate (3 registry columns, predict_game.py)
- Starter handedness — structurally cannot fabricate (6 registry columns, materialize_starter_handedness.py)
- Travel circadian — structurally cannot fabricate (2 registry columns, predict_game.py)
- Venue split — structurally cannot fabricate (3 registry columns, predict_game.py)
Raw model values
The exact numeric matrix aligned for the deployed moneyline and totals heads. These are post-transform values the estimators saw, not a second UI-side reconstruction. Missing stays missing.
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians — 130 aligned inputs65 missing
| Feature | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
Combined level: bulk-relief outs recorded over the last 7 daysbp_bulk_outs_7d_symavg | 14.5 | The two teams' average bulk-relief outs recorded over the last 7 days. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Combined level: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 daysbp_closer_outs_7d_symavg | 16.5 | The two teams' average high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 daysbp_closer_outs_7d_symdiff | 1 | The home team's high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relieversbp_closer_share_7d_symavg | 0.1689 | The two teams' average share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relieversbp_closer_share_7d_symdiff | 0.04422 | The home team's share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 daysbp_era_7d_symavg | 3.49851 | The two teams' average the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 daysbp_era_7d_symdiff | -0.92959 | The home team's the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: bullpen fatigue riskbp_fatigue_risk_symavg | 3.49578 | The two teams' average bullpen fatigue risk. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: bullpen fatigue riskbp_fatigue_risk_symdiff | -1.46348 | The home team's bullpen fatigue risk minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: bullpen innings worked over the last 3 daysbp_ip_3d_symdiff | -2.33333 | The home team's bullpen innings worked over the last 3 days minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: share of recent bullpen work handled by long relieversbp_long_relief_share_7d_symavg | 0.29698 | The two teams' average share of recent bullpen work handled by long relievers. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Combined level: middle-relief outs recorded over the last 7 daysbp_middle_outs_7d_symavg | 21.5 | The two teams' average middle-relief outs recorded over the last 7 days. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: middle-relief outs recorded over the last 7 daysbp_middle_outs_7d_symdiff | -9 | The home team's middle-relief outs recorded over the last 7 days minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
bullpen official bulk outs 7d (combined level)bp_official_bulk_outs_7d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official bulk outs 7d (matchup edge)bp_official_bulk_outs_7d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official closer outs 7d (combined level)bp_official_closer_outs_7d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official closer outs 7d (matchup edge)bp_official_closer_outs_7d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official closer share 7d (combined level)bp_official_closer_share_7d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official closer share 7d (matchup edge)bp_official_closer_share_7d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official era 7d (combined level)bp_official_era_7d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official era 7d (matchup edge)bp_official_era_7d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official fatigue risk (combined level)bp_official_fatigue_risk_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official fatigue risk (matchup edge)bp_official_fatigue_risk_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official ip 3d (combined level)bp_official_ip_3d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official ip 3d (matchup edge)bp_official_ip_3d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official middle outs 7d (combined level)bp_official_middle_outs_7d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official middle outs 7d (matchup edge)bp_official_middle_outs_7d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official setup outs 7d (combined level)bp_official_setup_outs_7d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official setup outs 7d (matchup edge)bp_official_setup_outs_7d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official whip 7d (combined level)bp_official_whip_7d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official whip 7d (matchup edge)bp_official_whip_7d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
Combined level: setup-relief outs recorded over the last 7 daysbp_setup_outs_7d_symavg | 17.5 | The two teams' average setup-relief outs recorded over the last 7 days. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Combined level: the bullpen's WHIP over the last 7 daysbp_whip_7d_symavg | 1.14344 | The two teams' average the bullpen's WHIP over the last 7 days. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the bullpen's WHIP over the last 7 daysbp_whip_7d_symdiff | 0.14009 | The home team's the bullpen's WHIP over the last 7 days minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Venue elevationelevation_ft | 660 | The ballpark elevation in feet above sea level. Thinner air at higher elevation reduces drag on batted balls and is associated with greater carry and a higher run environment. |
Game-time temperaturegame_temperature_f | 63 | The pregame temperature in degrees Fahrenheit. Warmer air is generally less dense and can increase batted-ball carry, while temperature also changes pitcher grip and the overall scoring environment. |
Combined level: the batting average of the batters actually in the lineuplineup_ba_symavg | 0.25 | The two teams' average the batting average of the batters actually in the lineup. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the batting average of the batters actually in the lineuplineup_ba_symdiff | 0 | The home team's the batting average of the batters actually in the lineup minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: how hard the lineup hits the ball, by Statcast exit velocitylineup_exit_velo_symdiff | 0 | The home team's how hard the lineup hits the ball, by Statcast exit velocity minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: the lineup's season-to-date defensive error preventionlineup_fg_def_current_symdiff | Missing | The home lineup's MLB Stats date-range errors prevented relative to the same-position league rate, converted to run units, minus the away lineup's. The legacy contract name is retained for model compatibility; this is not FanGraphs Defense, DRS, or OAA. A positive number favors the home team. Future training rejects the old FanGraphs fielding snapshots because that endpoint ignored their requested dates. |
Combined level: the lineup's prior-year defensive runslineup_fg_def_prior_symavg | Missing | The two teams' average the lineup's prior-year defensive runs. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year defensive runslineup_fg_def_prior_symdiff | Missing | The home team's the lineup's prior-year defensive runs minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: the lineup's season-to-date wOBAlineup_fg_woba_current_symdiff | Missing | The home team's the lineup's season-to-date wOBA minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: the lineup's prior-year wOBAlineup_fg_woba_prior_symavg | Missing | The two teams' average the lineup's prior-year wOBA. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year wOBAlineup_fg_woba_prior_symdiff | Missing | The home team's the lineup's prior-year wOBA minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: the lineup's season-to-date wRC+lineup_fg_wrc_plus_current_symdiff | Missing | The home team's the lineup's season-to-date wRC+ minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: the lineup's prior-year wRC+lineup_fg_wrc_plus_prior_symavg | Missing | The two teams' average the lineup's prior-year wRC+. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year wRC+lineup_fg_wrc_plus_prior_symdiff | Missing | The home team's the lineup's prior-year wRC+ minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: the share of the lineup’s batted balls struck at 95 mph or harderlineup_hard_hit_pct_symdiff | 0 | The home team's the share of the lineup’s batted balls struck at 95 mph or harder minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: lineup on-base percentagelineup_obp_symavg | 0.32 | The two teams' average lineup on-base percentage. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Combined level: lineup slugging percentagelineup_slg_symavg | 0.4 | The two teams' average lineup slugging percentage. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Combined level: lineup expected weighted on-base average from Statcast contactlineup_xwoba_symavg | 0.32 | The two teams' average lineup expected weighted on-base average from Statcast contact. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: record-vs-run-differential luck factorluck_symdiff | 0.03364 | The home team's record-vs-run-differential luck factor minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: manager career games (the evidence behind the record)mgr_games_career_symdiff | 155 | The home team's manager career games (the evidence behind the record) minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: manager career winning percentagemgr_win_rate_career_symdiff | 0.107 | The home team's manager career winning percentage minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: manager team winning percentage this seasonmgr_win_rate_ytd_symdiff | 0.00617 | The home team's manager team winning percentage this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: offensive production against the opposing starter hand after broad team qualityoffense_vs_sp_hand_residual_symavg | -0.06529 | The two teams' average offensive production against the opposing starter hand after broad team quality. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: offensive production against the opposing starter hand after broad team qualityoffense_vs_sp_hand_residual_symdiff | 0.13058 | The home team's offensive production against the opposing starter hand after broad team quality minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: same-handed lineup alignment with the opposing starter’s pitch mixpitch_mix_alignment_same_hand_symdiff | Missing | The home team's same-handed lineup alignment with the opposing starter’s pitch mix minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: lineup results against breaking pitches matched to opposing breaking-ball usagepitch_mix_breaking_interaction_symdiff | Missing | The home team's lineup results against breaking pitches matched to opposing breaking-ball usage minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: spread between the lineup’s strongest and weakest pitch-type matchupspitch_mix_lineup_range_symdiff | Missing | The home team's spread between the lineup’s strongest and weakest pitch-type matchups minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: opposing starter pitch usage concentrated in the lineup’s weaker pitch bucketspitch_mix_mismatch_symdiff | Missing | The home team's opposing starter pitch usage concentrated in the lineup’s weaker pitch buckets minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: lineup results against offspeed pitches matched to opposing offspeed usagepitch_mix_offspeed_interaction_symdiff | Missing | The home team's lineup results against offspeed pitches matched to opposing offspeed usage minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: difference between pitcher pitch-quality results and the lineup’s results against that mixpitch_mix_quality_gap_symdiff | Missing | The home team's difference between pitcher pitch-quality results and the lineup’s results against that mix minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: proximity to the start-of-day playoff qualification cutoffplayoff_cutoff_proximity_symdiff | 0 | The home team's proximity to the start-of-day playoff qualification cutoff minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: start-of-day playoff-race leverageplayoff_leverage_symdiff | 0 | The home team's start-of-day playoff-race leverage minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoffplayoff_wild_card_margin_symdiff | 0 | The home team's start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoff minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowedpythag_symdiff | -0.03333 | The home team's expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: runs allowed per game over the last 10 gamesrapg_l10_symavg | 3.45 | The two teams' average runs allowed per game over the last 10 games. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: runs allowed per game over the last 10 gamesrapg_l10_symdiff | -0.5 | The home team's runs allowed per game over the last 10 games minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: runs allowed per game this seasonrapg_ytd_symavg | 4.27206 | The two teams' average runs allowed per game this season. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: runs allowed per game this seasonrapg_ytd_symdiff | -0.30955 | The home team's runs allowed per game this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: runs scored per game over the last 10 gamesrpg_l10_symdiff | -1.4 | The home team's runs scored per game over the last 10 games minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: runs scored per game this seasonrpg_ytd_symavg | 4.49808 | The two teams' average runs scored per game this season. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: runs scored per game this seasonrpg_ytd_symdiff | -0.62579 | The home team's runs scored per game this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: season run differentialrun_diff_ytd_symdiff | -0.31625 | The home team's season run differential minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Run-scoring park factorrun_park_factor | 0.95489 | A venue multiplier for total scoring, where 1.00 is neutral and values above 1.00 indicate a park that has increased runs. Park dimensions, altitude, and hitting background can make otherwise similar contact produce different totals. |
Matchup edge: batters the starter has faced this season (evidence weight)sp_bf_ytd_symdiff | 747 | The home team's batters the starter has faced this season (evidence weight) minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: the starter's breaking-ball usage sharesp_breaking_usage_pct_symavg | 0.19962 | The two teams' average the starter's breaking-ball usage share. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the starter's breaking-ball usage sharesp_breaking_usage_pct_symdiff | -0.10077 | The home team's the starter's breaking-ball usage share minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: the starter's ERA over the last 30 dayssp_era_30d_symavg | Missing | The two teams' average the starter's ERA over the last 30 days. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the starter's ERA over the last 30 dayssp_era_30d_symdiff | Missing | The home team's the starter's ERA over the last 30 days minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: the starter's ERA this seasonsp_era_ytd_symavg | 3.53 | The two teams' average the starter's ERA this season. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the starter's ERA this seasonsp_era_ytd_symdiff | -1.94 | The home team's the starter's ERA this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: the starter's fastball usage sharesp_fastball_usage_pct_symdiff | 0.36275 | The home team's the starter's fastball usage share minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: the starting pitcher’s average fastball velocitysp_fb_velo_symavg | 93.78739 | The two teams' average the starting pitcher’s average fastball velocity. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the starter's season-to-date strikeout-minus-walk ratesp_fg_kbb_current_symdiff | Missing | The home team's the starter's season-to-date strikeout-minus-walk rate minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk ratesp_fg_kbb_prior_symavg | Missing | The two teams' average the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk rate. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk ratesp_fg_kbb_prior_symdiff | Missing | The home team's the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk rate minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: the starter's season-to-date xFIP (lower is better)sp_fg_xfip_current_symdiff | Missing | The home team's the starter's season-to-date xFIP (lower is better) minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better)sp_fg_xfip_prior_symavg | Missing | The two teams' average the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better). It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better)sp_fg_xfip_prior_symdiff | Missing | The home team's the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better) minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: the starter's strikeouts per nine this seasonsp_k9_ytd_symavg | 8.66 | The two teams' average the starter's strikeouts per nine this season. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the starter's strikeouts per nine this seasonsp_k9_ytd_symdiff | 1.32 | The home team's the starter's strikeouts per nine this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
starting pitcher official bf this season (combined level)sp_official_bf_ytd_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official bf this season (matchup edge)sp_official_bf_ytd_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official coverage 30d (combined level)sp_official_coverage_30d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official coverage 30d (matchup edge)sp_official_coverage_30d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official coverage this season (combined level)sp_official_coverage_ytd_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official coverage this season (matchup edge)sp_official_coverage_ytd_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official era 30d (combined level)sp_official_era_30d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official era 30d (matchup edge)sp_official_era_30d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official era this season (combined level)sp_official_era_ytd_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official era this season (matchup edge)sp_official_era_ytd_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official k9 30d (combined level)sp_official_k9_30d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official k9 30d (matchup edge)sp_official_k9_30d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official k9 this season (combined level)sp_official_k9_ytd_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official k9 this season (matchup edge)sp_official_k9_ytd_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official whip 30d (combined level)sp_official_whip_30d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official whip 30d (matchup edge)sp_official_whip_30d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official whip this season (combined level)sp_official_whip_ytd_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official whip this season (matchup edge)sp_official_whip_ytd_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
Combined level: the starter's offspeed-pitch usage sharesp_offspeed_usage_pct_symavg | 0.24401 | The two teams' average the starter's offspeed-pitch usage share. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the starter's offspeed-pitch usage sharesp_offspeed_usage_pct_symdiff | -0.01198 | The home team's the starter's offspeed-pitch usage share minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: the starter's pitch-mix diversity rather than reliance on one pitch familysp_pitch_mix_entropy_symavg | 0.95759 | The two teams' average the starter's pitch-mix diversity rather than reliance on one pitch family. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the starter's pitch-mix diversity rather than reliance on one pitch familysp_pitch_mix_entropy_symdiff | -0.08482 | The home team's the starter's pitch-mix diversity rather than reliance on one pitch family minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: how often batters swing and miss against the startersp_whiff_pct_symavg | 0.22339 | The two teams' average how often batters swing and miss against the starter. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Combined level: the starter's WHIP this seasonsp_whip_ytd_symavg | 1.18 | The two teams' average the starter's WHIP this season. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the starter's WHIP this seasonsp_whip_ytd_symdiff | -0.24 | The home team's the starter's WHIP this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: recent travel burden from distance, direction, time-zone shift, altitude gain, and road chaintravel_circadian_burden_symdiff | -0.47623 | The home team's recent travel burden from distance, direction, time-zone shift, altitude gain, and road chain minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: whether prior venue history was available to measure travel burdentravel_circadian_history_available_symavg | 0.5 | The two teams' average whether prior venue history was available to measure travel burden. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Umpire walk factor (prior year)ump_bb_factor_prior | Missing | The assigned plate umpire’s prior-year walk tendency relative to league average. More walks create additional baserunners and run-scoring opportunities, although assignments are often unavailable until game time. |
Umpire strikeout factor (prior year)ump_k_factor_prior | Missing | The assigned plate umpire’s prior-year strikeout tendency relative to league average. A larger strike zone or strike-friendly approach can suppress contact and scoring, although assignments are often unavailable until game time. |
Umpire run factor (prior year)ump_run_factor_prior | Missing | The assigned plate umpire’s prior-year run-scoring tendency relative to league average, combining zone size with how consistently it is called. It sits closer to the outcome than the strikeout and walk factors do, which is why the run head selects it, although assignments are often unavailable until game time. |
Team-strength edge (venue-neutral)venue_neutral_win_strength_diff | 3.011e-4 | The home team's season winning percentage minus the away team's, independent of who is hosting. The average benefit of playing at home is captured separately, so this is a clean measure of which club is better. |
Matchup edge: wins above replacement pace per plate appearancewar_per_pa_symdiff | Missing | The home team's wins above replacement pace per plate appearance minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: wins above replacement this seasonwar_ytd_symdiff | Missing | The home team's wins above replacement this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: winning percentage over the last 10 gameswin_rate_l10_symdiff | 0 | The home team's winning percentage over the last 10 games minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: winning percentage over the last 30 gameswin_rate_l30_symdiff | 0.13333 | The home team's winning percentage over the last 30 games minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: expected wins above replacement this seasonxwar_ytd_symdiff | Missing | The home team's expected wins above replacement this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers — 130 aligned inputs63 missing
| Feature | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
Combined level: bulk-relief outs recorded over the last 7 daysbp_bulk_outs_7d_symavg | 15 | The two teams' average bulk-relief outs recorded over the last 7 days. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Combined level: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 daysbp_closer_outs_7d_symavg | 22 | The two teams' average high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 daysbp_closer_outs_7d_symdiff | -4 | The home team's high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relieversbp_closer_share_7d_symavg | 0.22278 | The two teams' average share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relieversbp_closer_share_7d_symdiff | -0.08192 | The home team's share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 daysbp_era_7d_symavg | 2.56783 | The two teams' average the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 daysbp_era_7d_symdiff | -3.17203 | The home team's the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: bullpen fatigue riskbp_fatigue_risk_symavg | 2.33706 | The two teams' average bullpen fatigue risk. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: bullpen fatigue riskbp_fatigue_risk_symdiff | -2.71049 | The home team's bullpen fatigue risk minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: bullpen innings worked over the last 3 daysbp_ip_3d_symdiff | 1.66667 | The home team's bullpen innings worked over the last 3 days minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: share of recent bullpen work handled by long relieversbp_long_relief_share_7d_symavg | 0.18811 | The two teams' average share of recent bullpen work handled by long relievers. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Combined level: middle-relief outs recorded over the last 7 daysbp_middle_outs_7d_symavg | 33 | The two teams' average middle-relief outs recorded over the last 7 days. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: middle-relief outs recorded over the last 7 daysbp_middle_outs_7d_symdiff | 22 | The home team's middle-relief outs recorded over the last 7 days minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
bullpen official bulk outs 7d (combined level)bp_official_bulk_outs_7d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official bulk outs 7d (matchup edge)bp_official_bulk_outs_7d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official closer outs 7d (combined level)bp_official_closer_outs_7d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official closer outs 7d (matchup edge)bp_official_closer_outs_7d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official closer share 7d (combined level)bp_official_closer_share_7d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official closer share 7d (matchup edge)bp_official_closer_share_7d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official era 7d (combined level)bp_official_era_7d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official era 7d (matchup edge)bp_official_era_7d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official fatigue risk (combined level)bp_official_fatigue_risk_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official fatigue risk (matchup edge)bp_official_fatigue_risk_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official ip 3d (combined level)bp_official_ip_3d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official ip 3d (matchup edge)bp_official_ip_3d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official middle outs 7d (combined level)bp_official_middle_outs_7d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official middle outs 7d (matchup edge)bp_official_middle_outs_7d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official setup outs 7d (combined level)bp_official_setup_outs_7d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official setup outs 7d (matchup edge)bp_official_setup_outs_7d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official whip 7d (combined level)bp_official_whip_7d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official whip 7d (matchup edge)bp_official_whip_7d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
Combined level: setup-relief outs recorded over the last 7 daysbp_setup_outs_7d_symavg | 12 | The two teams' average setup-relief outs recorded over the last 7 days. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Combined level: the bullpen's WHIP over the last 7 daysbp_whip_7d_symavg | 0.86553 | The two teams' average the bullpen's WHIP over the last 7 days. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the bullpen's WHIP over the last 7 daysbp_whip_7d_symdiff | -0.31289 | The home team's the bullpen's WHIP over the last 7 days minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Venue elevationelevation_ft | 515 | The ballpark elevation in feet above sea level. Thinner air at higher elevation reduces drag on batted balls and is associated with greater carry and a higher run environment. |
Game-time temperaturegame_temperature_f | 98 | The pregame temperature in degrees Fahrenheit. Warmer air is generally less dense and can increase batted-ball carry, while temperature also changes pitcher grip and the overall scoring environment. |
Combined level: the batting average of the batters actually in the lineuplineup_ba_symavg | 0.25 | The two teams' average the batting average of the batters actually in the lineup. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the batting average of the batters actually in the lineuplineup_ba_symdiff | 0 | The home team's the batting average of the batters actually in the lineup minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: how hard the lineup hits the ball, by Statcast exit velocitylineup_exit_velo_symdiff | 0 | The home team's how hard the lineup hits the ball, by Statcast exit velocity minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: the lineup's season-to-date defensive error preventionlineup_fg_def_current_symdiff | Missing | The home lineup's MLB Stats date-range errors prevented relative to the same-position league rate, converted to run units, minus the away lineup's. The legacy contract name is retained for model compatibility; this is not FanGraphs Defense, DRS, or OAA. A positive number favors the home team. Future training rejects the old FanGraphs fielding snapshots because that endpoint ignored their requested dates. |
Combined level: the lineup's prior-year defensive runslineup_fg_def_prior_symavg | Missing | The two teams' average the lineup's prior-year defensive runs. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year defensive runslineup_fg_def_prior_symdiff | Missing | The home team's the lineup's prior-year defensive runs minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: the lineup's season-to-date wOBAlineup_fg_woba_current_symdiff | Missing | The home team's the lineup's season-to-date wOBA minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: the lineup's prior-year wOBAlineup_fg_woba_prior_symavg | Missing | The two teams' average the lineup's prior-year wOBA. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year wOBAlineup_fg_woba_prior_symdiff | Missing | The home team's the lineup's prior-year wOBA minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: the lineup's season-to-date wRC+lineup_fg_wrc_plus_current_symdiff | Missing | The home team's the lineup's season-to-date wRC+ minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: the lineup's prior-year wRC+lineup_fg_wrc_plus_prior_symavg | Missing | The two teams' average the lineup's prior-year wRC+. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year wRC+lineup_fg_wrc_plus_prior_symdiff | Missing | The home team's the lineup's prior-year wRC+ minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: the share of the lineup’s batted balls struck at 95 mph or harderlineup_hard_hit_pct_symdiff | 0 | The home team's the share of the lineup’s batted balls struck at 95 mph or harder minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: lineup on-base percentagelineup_obp_symavg | 0.32 | The two teams' average lineup on-base percentage. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Combined level: lineup slugging percentagelineup_slg_symavg | 0.4 | The two teams' average lineup slugging percentage. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Combined level: lineup expected weighted on-base average from Statcast contactlineup_xwoba_symavg | 0.32 | The two teams' average lineup expected weighted on-base average from Statcast contact. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: record-vs-run-differential luck factorluck_symdiff | -0.01878 | The home team's record-vs-run-differential luck factor minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: manager career games (the evidence behind the record)mgr_games_career_symdiff | 872 | The home team's manager career games (the evidence behind the record) minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: manager career winning percentagemgr_win_rate_career_symdiff | 0.15349 | The home team's manager career winning percentage minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: manager team winning percentage this seasonmgr_win_rate_ytd_symdiff | 0.03704 | The home team's manager team winning percentage this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: offensive production against the opposing starter hand after broad team qualityoffense_vs_sp_hand_residual_symavg | 0 | The two teams' average offensive production against the opposing starter hand after broad team quality. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: offensive production against the opposing starter hand after broad team qualityoffense_vs_sp_hand_residual_symdiff | 0 | The home team's offensive production against the opposing starter hand after broad team quality minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: same-handed lineup alignment with the opposing starter’s pitch mixpitch_mix_alignment_same_hand_symdiff | Missing | The home team's same-handed lineup alignment with the opposing starter’s pitch mix minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: lineup results against breaking pitches matched to opposing breaking-ball usagepitch_mix_breaking_interaction_symdiff | Missing | The home team's lineup results against breaking pitches matched to opposing breaking-ball usage minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: spread between the lineup’s strongest and weakest pitch-type matchupspitch_mix_lineup_range_symdiff | Missing | The home team's spread between the lineup’s strongest and weakest pitch-type matchups minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: opposing starter pitch usage concentrated in the lineup’s weaker pitch bucketspitch_mix_mismatch_symdiff | Missing | The home team's opposing starter pitch usage concentrated in the lineup’s weaker pitch buckets minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: lineup results against offspeed pitches matched to opposing offspeed usagepitch_mix_offspeed_interaction_symdiff | Missing | The home team's lineup results against offspeed pitches matched to opposing offspeed usage minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: difference between pitcher pitch-quality results and the lineup’s results against that mixpitch_mix_quality_gap_symdiff | Missing | The home team's difference between pitcher pitch-quality results and the lineup’s results against that mix minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: proximity to the start-of-day playoff qualification cutoffplayoff_cutoff_proximity_symdiff | -0.08147 | The home team's proximity to the start-of-day playoff qualification cutoff minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: start-of-day playoff-race leverageplayoff_leverage_symdiff | -0.00298 | The home team's start-of-day playoff-race leverage minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoffplayoff_wild_card_margin_symdiff | 5.5 | The home team's start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoff minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowedpythag_symdiff | 0.05424 | The home team's expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: runs allowed per game over the last 10 gamesrapg_l10_symavg | 2.85 | The two teams' average runs allowed per game over the last 10 games. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: runs allowed per game over the last 10 gamesrapg_l10_symdiff | -1.3 | The home team's runs allowed per game over the last 10 games minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: runs allowed per game this seasonrapg_ytd_symavg | 3.77609 | The two teams' average runs allowed per game this season. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: runs allowed per game this seasonrapg_ytd_symdiff | -0.14478 | The home team's runs allowed per game this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: runs scored per game over the last 10 gamesrpg_l10_symdiff | 1.2 | The home team's runs scored per game over the last 10 games minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: runs scored per game this seasonrpg_ytd_symavg | 4.76313 | The two teams' average runs scored per game this season. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: runs scored per game this seasonrpg_ytd_symdiff | 0.36263 | The home team's runs scored per game this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: season run differentialrun_diff_ytd_symdiff | 0.50741 | The home team's season run differential minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Run-scoring park factorrun_park_factor | 0.93883 | A venue multiplier for total scoring, where 1.00 is neutral and values above 1.00 indicate a park that has increased runs. Park dimensions, altitude, and hitting background can make otherwise similar contact produce different totals. |
Matchup edge: batters the starter has faced this season (evidence weight)sp_bf_ytd_symdiff | 0 | The home team's batters the starter has faced this season (evidence weight) minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: the starter's breaking-ball usage sharesp_breaking_usage_pct_symavg | 0.25 | The two teams' average the starter's breaking-ball usage share. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the starter's breaking-ball usage sharesp_breaking_usage_pct_symdiff | 0 | The home team's the starter's breaking-ball usage share minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: the starter's ERA over the last 30 dayssp_era_30d_symavg | 4.5 | The two teams' average the starter's ERA over the last 30 days. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the starter's ERA over the last 30 dayssp_era_30d_symdiff | 0 | The home team's the starter's ERA over the last 30 days minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: the starter's ERA this seasonsp_era_ytd_symavg | 4.5 | The two teams' average the starter's ERA this season. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the starter's ERA this seasonsp_era_ytd_symdiff | 0 | The home team's the starter's ERA this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: the starter's fastball usage sharesp_fastball_usage_pct_symdiff | 0 | The home team's the starter's fastball usage share minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: the starting pitcher’s average fastball velocitysp_fb_velo_symavg | 93 | The two teams' average the starting pitcher’s average fastball velocity. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the starter's season-to-date strikeout-minus-walk ratesp_fg_kbb_current_symdiff | Missing | The home team's the starter's season-to-date strikeout-minus-walk rate minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk ratesp_fg_kbb_prior_symavg | Missing | The two teams' average the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk rate. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk ratesp_fg_kbb_prior_symdiff | Missing | The home team's the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk rate minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: the starter's season-to-date xFIP (lower is better)sp_fg_xfip_current_symdiff | Missing | The home team's the starter's season-to-date xFIP (lower is better) minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better)sp_fg_xfip_prior_symavg | Missing | The two teams' average the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better). It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better)sp_fg_xfip_prior_symdiff | Missing | The home team's the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better) minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: the starter's strikeouts per nine this seasonsp_k9_ytd_symavg | 8 | The two teams' average the starter's strikeouts per nine this season. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the starter's strikeouts per nine this seasonsp_k9_ytd_symdiff | 0 | The home team's the starter's strikeouts per nine this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
starting pitcher official bf this season (combined level)sp_official_bf_ytd_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official bf this season (matchup edge)sp_official_bf_ytd_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official coverage 30d (combined level)sp_official_coverage_30d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official coverage 30d (matchup edge)sp_official_coverage_30d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official coverage this season (combined level)sp_official_coverage_ytd_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official coverage this season (matchup edge)sp_official_coverage_ytd_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official era 30d (combined level)sp_official_era_30d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official era 30d (matchup edge)sp_official_era_30d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official era this season (combined level)sp_official_era_ytd_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official era this season (matchup edge)sp_official_era_ytd_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official k9 30d (combined level)sp_official_k9_30d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official k9 30d (matchup edge)sp_official_k9_30d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official k9 this season (combined level)sp_official_k9_ytd_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official k9 this season (matchup edge)sp_official_k9_ytd_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official whip 30d (combined level)sp_official_whip_30d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official whip 30d (matchup edge)sp_official_whip_30d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official whip this season (combined level)sp_official_whip_ytd_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official whip this season (matchup edge)sp_official_whip_ytd_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
Combined level: the starter's offspeed-pitch usage sharesp_offspeed_usage_pct_symavg | 0.25 | The two teams' average the starter's offspeed-pitch usage share. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the starter's offspeed-pitch usage sharesp_offspeed_usage_pct_symdiff | 0 | The home team's the starter's offspeed-pitch usage share minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: the starter's pitch-mix diversity rather than reliance on one pitch familysp_pitch_mix_entropy_symavg | 1 | The two teams' average the starter's pitch-mix diversity rather than reliance on one pitch family. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the starter's pitch-mix diversity rather than reliance on one pitch familysp_pitch_mix_entropy_symdiff | 0 | The home team's the starter's pitch-mix diversity rather than reliance on one pitch family minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: how often batters swing and miss against the startersp_whiff_pct_symavg | 0.24 | The two teams' average how often batters swing and miss against the starter. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Combined level: the starter's WHIP this seasonsp_whip_ytd_symavg | 1.3 | The two teams' average the starter's WHIP this season. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the starter's WHIP this seasonsp_whip_ytd_symdiff | 0 | The home team's the starter's WHIP this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: recent travel burden from distance, direction, time-zone shift, altitude gain, and road chaintravel_circadian_burden_symdiff | -1.19865 | The home team's recent travel burden from distance, direction, time-zone shift, altitude gain, and road chain minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: whether prior venue history was available to measure travel burdentravel_circadian_history_available_symavg | 0.5 | The two teams' average whether prior venue history was available to measure travel burden. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Umpire walk factor (prior year)ump_bb_factor_prior | Missing | The assigned plate umpire’s prior-year walk tendency relative to league average. More walks create additional baserunners and run-scoring opportunities, although assignments are often unavailable until game time. |
Umpire strikeout factor (prior year)ump_k_factor_prior | Missing | The assigned plate umpire’s prior-year strikeout tendency relative to league average. A larger strike zone or strike-friendly approach can suppress contact and scoring, although assignments are often unavailable until game time. |
Umpire run factor (prior year)ump_run_factor_prior | Missing | The assigned plate umpire’s prior-year run-scoring tendency relative to league average, combining zone size with how consistently it is called. It sits closer to the outcome than the strikeout and walk factors do, which is why the run head selects it, although assignments are often unavailable until game time. |
Team-strength edge (venue-neutral)venue_neutral_win_strength_diff | 0.03547 | The home team's season winning percentage minus the away team's, independent of who is hosting. The average benefit of playing at home is captured separately, so this is a clean measure of which club is better. |
Matchup edge: wins above replacement pace per plate appearancewar_per_pa_symdiff | Missing | The home team's wins above replacement pace per plate appearance minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: wins above replacement this seasonwar_ytd_symdiff | Missing | The home team's wins above replacement this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: winning percentage over the last 10 gameswin_rate_l10_symdiff | 0.3 | The home team's winning percentage over the last 10 games minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: winning percentage over the last 30 gameswin_rate_l30_symdiff | 0.13333 | The home team's winning percentage over the last 30 games minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: expected wins above replacement this seasonxwar_ytd_symdiff | Missing | The home team's expected wins above replacement this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays — 130 aligned inputs66 missing
| Feature | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
Combined level: bulk-relief outs recorded over the last 7 daysbp_bulk_outs_7d_symavg | 6 | The two teams' average bulk-relief outs recorded over the last 7 days. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Combined level: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 daysbp_closer_outs_7d_symavg | 24 | The two teams' average high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 daysbp_closer_outs_7d_symdiff | 2 | The home team's high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relieversbp_closer_share_7d_symavg | 0.29823 | The two teams' average share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relieversbp_closer_share_7d_symdiff | 0.02855 | The home team's share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 daysbp_era_7d_symavg | 4.18958 | The two teams' average the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 daysbp_era_7d_symdiff | -0.95417 | The home team's the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: bullpen fatigue riskbp_fatigue_risk_symavg | 4.44884 | The two teams' average bullpen fatigue risk. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: bullpen fatigue riskbp_fatigue_risk_symdiff | -1.47269 | The home team's bullpen fatigue risk minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: bullpen innings worked over the last 3 daysbp_ip_3d_symdiff | -1.66667 | The home team's bullpen innings worked over the last 3 days minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: share of recent bullpen work handled by long relieversbp_long_relief_share_7d_symavg | 0.12415 | The two teams' average share of recent bullpen work handled by long relievers. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Combined level: middle-relief outs recorded over the last 7 daysbp_middle_outs_7d_symavg | 34.5 | The two teams' average middle-relief outs recorded over the last 7 days. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: middle-relief outs recorded over the last 7 daysbp_middle_outs_7d_symdiff | -1 | The home team's middle-relief outs recorded over the last 7 days minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
bullpen official bulk outs 7d (combined level)bp_official_bulk_outs_7d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official bulk outs 7d (matchup edge)bp_official_bulk_outs_7d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official closer outs 7d (combined level)bp_official_closer_outs_7d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official closer outs 7d (matchup edge)bp_official_closer_outs_7d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official closer share 7d (combined level)bp_official_closer_share_7d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official closer share 7d (matchup edge)bp_official_closer_share_7d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official era 7d (combined level)bp_official_era_7d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official era 7d (matchup edge)bp_official_era_7d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official fatigue risk (combined level)bp_official_fatigue_risk_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official fatigue risk (matchup edge)bp_official_fatigue_risk_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official ip 3d (combined level)bp_official_ip_3d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official ip 3d (matchup edge)bp_official_ip_3d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official middle outs 7d (combined level)bp_official_middle_outs_7d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official middle outs 7d (matchup edge)bp_official_middle_outs_7d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official setup outs 7d (combined level)bp_official_setup_outs_7d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official setup outs 7d (matchup edge)bp_official_setup_outs_7d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official whip 7d (combined level)bp_official_whip_7d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official whip 7d (matchup edge)bp_official_whip_7d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
Combined level: setup-relief outs recorded over the last 7 daysbp_setup_outs_7d_symavg | 6 | The two teams' average setup-relief outs recorded over the last 7 days. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Combined level: the bullpen's WHIP over the last 7 daysbp_whip_7d_symavg | 1.48981 | The two teams' average the bullpen's WHIP over the last 7 days. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the bullpen's WHIP over the last 7 daysbp_whip_7d_symdiff | -0.27963 | The home team's the bullpen's WHIP over the last 7 days minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Venue elevationelevation_ft | 45 | The ballpark elevation in feet above sea level. Thinner air at higher elevation reduces drag on batted balls and is associated with greater carry and a higher run environment. |
Game-time temperaturegame_temperature_f | Missing | The pregame temperature in degrees Fahrenheit. Warmer air is generally less dense and can increase batted-ball carry, while temperature also changes pitcher grip and the overall scoring environment. |
Combined level: the batting average of the batters actually in the lineuplineup_ba_symavg | 0.25 | The two teams' average the batting average of the batters actually in the lineup. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the batting average of the batters actually in the lineuplineup_ba_symdiff | 0 | The home team's the batting average of the batters actually in the lineup minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: how hard the lineup hits the ball, by Statcast exit velocitylineup_exit_velo_symdiff | 0 | The home team's how hard the lineup hits the ball, by Statcast exit velocity minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: the lineup's season-to-date defensive error preventionlineup_fg_def_current_symdiff | Missing | The home lineup's MLB Stats date-range errors prevented relative to the same-position league rate, converted to run units, minus the away lineup's. The legacy contract name is retained for model compatibility; this is not FanGraphs Defense, DRS, or OAA. A positive number favors the home team. Future training rejects the old FanGraphs fielding snapshots because that endpoint ignored their requested dates. |
Combined level: the lineup's prior-year defensive runslineup_fg_def_prior_symavg | Missing | The two teams' average the lineup's prior-year defensive runs. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year defensive runslineup_fg_def_prior_symdiff | Missing | The home team's the lineup's prior-year defensive runs minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: the lineup's season-to-date wOBAlineup_fg_woba_current_symdiff | Missing | The home team's the lineup's season-to-date wOBA minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: the lineup's prior-year wOBAlineup_fg_woba_prior_symavg | Missing | The two teams' average the lineup's prior-year wOBA. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year wOBAlineup_fg_woba_prior_symdiff | Missing | The home team's the lineup's prior-year wOBA minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: the lineup's season-to-date wRC+lineup_fg_wrc_plus_current_symdiff | Missing | The home team's the lineup's season-to-date wRC+ minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: the lineup's prior-year wRC+lineup_fg_wrc_plus_prior_symavg | Missing | The two teams' average the lineup's prior-year wRC+. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year wRC+lineup_fg_wrc_plus_prior_symdiff | Missing | The home team's the lineup's prior-year wRC+ minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: the share of the lineup’s batted balls struck at 95 mph or harderlineup_hard_hit_pct_symdiff | 0 | The home team's the share of the lineup’s batted balls struck at 95 mph or harder minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: lineup on-base percentagelineup_obp_symavg | 0.32 | The two teams' average lineup on-base percentage. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Combined level: lineup slugging percentagelineup_slg_symavg | 0.4 | The two teams' average lineup slugging percentage. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Combined level: lineup expected weighted on-base average from Statcast contactlineup_xwoba_symavg | 0.32 | The two teams' average lineup expected weighted on-base average from Statcast contact. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: record-vs-run-differential luck factorluck_symdiff | 0.07211 | The home team's record-vs-run-differential luck factor minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: manager career games (the evidence behind the record)mgr_games_career_symdiff | 488 | The home team's manager career games (the evidence behind the record) minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: manager career winning percentagemgr_win_rate_career_symdiff | -0.04391 | The home team's manager career winning percentage minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: manager team winning percentage this seasonmgr_win_rate_ytd_symdiff | 0.0273 | The home team's manager team winning percentage this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: offensive production against the opposing starter hand after broad team qualityoffense_vs_sp_hand_residual_symavg | 0.01578 | The two teams' average offensive production against the opposing starter hand after broad team quality. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: offensive production against the opposing starter hand after broad team qualityoffense_vs_sp_hand_residual_symdiff | -0.03156 | The home team's offensive production against the opposing starter hand after broad team quality minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: same-handed lineup alignment with the opposing starter’s pitch mixpitch_mix_alignment_same_hand_symdiff | Missing | The home team's same-handed lineup alignment with the opposing starter’s pitch mix minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: lineup results against breaking pitches matched to opposing breaking-ball usagepitch_mix_breaking_interaction_symdiff | Missing | The home team's lineup results against breaking pitches matched to opposing breaking-ball usage minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: spread between the lineup’s strongest and weakest pitch-type matchupspitch_mix_lineup_range_symdiff | Missing | The home team's spread between the lineup’s strongest and weakest pitch-type matchups minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: opposing starter pitch usage concentrated in the lineup’s weaker pitch bucketspitch_mix_mismatch_symdiff | Missing | The home team's opposing starter pitch usage concentrated in the lineup’s weaker pitch buckets minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: lineup results against offspeed pitches matched to opposing offspeed usagepitch_mix_offspeed_interaction_symdiff | Missing | The home team's lineup results against offspeed pitches matched to opposing offspeed usage minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: difference between pitcher pitch-quality results and the lineup’s results against that mixpitch_mix_quality_gap_symdiff | Missing | The home team's difference between pitcher pitch-quality results and the lineup’s results against that mix minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: proximity to the start-of-day playoff qualification cutoffplayoff_cutoff_proximity_symdiff | -0.00464 | The home team's proximity to the start-of-day playoff qualification cutoff minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: start-of-day playoff-race leverageplayoff_leverage_symdiff | -4.740e-6 | The home team's start-of-day playoff-race leverage minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoffplayoff_wild_card_margin_symdiff | 3.5 | The home team's start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoff minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowedpythag_symdiff | -0.04999 | The home team's expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: runs allowed per game over the last 10 gamesrapg_l10_symavg | 3.6 | The two teams' average runs allowed per game over the last 10 games. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: runs allowed per game over the last 10 gamesrapg_l10_symdiff | -0.8 | The home team's runs allowed per game over the last 10 games minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: runs allowed per game this seasonrapg_ytd_symavg | 3.85587 | The two teams' average runs allowed per game this season. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: runs allowed per game this seasonrapg_ytd_symdiff | 0.31296 | The home team's runs allowed per game this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: runs scored per game over the last 10 gamesrpg_l10_symdiff | -1.3 | The home team's runs scored per game over the last 10 games minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: runs scored per game this seasonrpg_ytd_symavg | 4.59369 | The two teams' average runs scored per game this season. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: runs scored per game this seasonrpg_ytd_symdiff | -0.10096 | The home team's runs scored per game this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: season run differentialrun_diff_ytd_symdiff | -0.41392 | The home team's season run differential minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Run-scoring park factorrun_park_factor | 0.88881 | A venue multiplier for total scoring, where 1.00 is neutral and values above 1.00 indicate a park that has increased runs. Park dimensions, altitude, and hitting background can make otherwise similar contact produce different totals. |
Matchup edge: batters the starter has faced this season (evidence weight)sp_bf_ytd_symdiff | 669 | The home team's batters the starter has faced this season (evidence weight) minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: the starter's breaking-ball usage sharesp_breaking_usage_pct_symavg | 0.14607 | The two teams' average the starter's breaking-ball usage share. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the starter's breaking-ball usage sharesp_breaking_usage_pct_symdiff | -0.20787 | The home team's the starter's breaking-ball usage share minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: the starter's ERA over the last 30 dayssp_era_30d_symavg | Missing | The two teams' average the starter's ERA over the last 30 days. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the starter's ERA over the last 30 dayssp_era_30d_symdiff | Missing | The home team's the starter's ERA over the last 30 days minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: the starter's ERA this seasonsp_era_ytd_symavg | 3.585 | The two teams' average the starter's ERA this season. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the starter's ERA this seasonsp_era_ytd_symdiff | -1.83 | The home team's the starter's ERA this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: the starter's fastball usage sharesp_fastball_usage_pct_symdiff | 0.52485 | The home team's the starter's fastball usage share minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: the starting pitcher’s average fastball velocitysp_fb_velo_symavg | 93.07487 | The two teams' average the starting pitcher’s average fastball velocity. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the starter's season-to-date strikeout-minus-walk ratesp_fg_kbb_current_symdiff | Missing | The home team's the starter's season-to-date strikeout-minus-walk rate minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk ratesp_fg_kbb_prior_symavg | Missing | The two teams' average the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk rate. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk ratesp_fg_kbb_prior_symdiff | Missing | The home team's the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk rate minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: the starter's season-to-date xFIP (lower is better)sp_fg_xfip_current_symdiff | Missing | The home team's the starter's season-to-date xFIP (lower is better) minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better)sp_fg_xfip_prior_symavg | Missing | The two teams' average the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better). It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better)sp_fg_xfip_prior_symdiff | Missing | The home team's the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better) minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: the starter's strikeouts per nine this seasonsp_k9_ytd_symavg | 8.55 | The two teams' average the starter's strikeouts per nine this season. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the starter's strikeouts per nine this seasonsp_k9_ytd_symdiff | 1.1 | The home team's the starter's strikeouts per nine this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
starting pitcher official bf this season (combined level)sp_official_bf_ytd_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official bf this season (matchup edge)sp_official_bf_ytd_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official coverage 30d (combined level)sp_official_coverage_30d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official coverage 30d (matchup edge)sp_official_coverage_30d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official coverage this season (combined level)sp_official_coverage_ytd_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official coverage this season (matchup edge)sp_official_coverage_ytd_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official era 30d (combined level)sp_official_era_30d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official era 30d (matchup edge)sp_official_era_30d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official era this season (combined level)sp_official_era_ytd_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official era this season (matchup edge)sp_official_era_ytd_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official k9 30d (combined level)sp_official_k9_30d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official k9 30d (matchup edge)sp_official_k9_30d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official k9 this season (combined level)sp_official_k9_ytd_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official k9 this season (matchup edge)sp_official_k9_ytd_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official whip 30d (combined level)sp_official_whip_30d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official whip 30d (matchup edge)sp_official_whip_30d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official whip this season (combined level)sp_official_whip_ytd_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official whip this season (matchup edge)sp_official_whip_ytd_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
Combined level: the starter's offspeed-pitch usage sharesp_offspeed_usage_pct_symavg | 0.21651 | The two teams' average the starter's offspeed-pitch usage share. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the starter's offspeed-pitch usage sharesp_offspeed_usage_pct_symdiff | -0.06698 | The home team's the starter's offspeed-pitch usage share minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: the starter's pitch-mix diversity rather than reliance on one pitch familysp_pitch_mix_entropy_symavg | 0.8113 | The two teams' average the starter's pitch-mix diversity rather than reliance on one pitch family. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the starter's pitch-mix diversity rather than reliance on one pitch familysp_pitch_mix_entropy_symdiff | -0.37741 | The home team's the starter's pitch-mix diversity rather than reliance on one pitch family minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: how often batters swing and miss against the startersp_whiff_pct_symavg | 0.25435 | The two teams' average how often batters swing and miss against the starter. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Combined level: the starter's WHIP this seasonsp_whip_ytd_symavg | 1.105 | The two teams' average the starter's WHIP this season. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the starter's WHIP this seasonsp_whip_ytd_symdiff | -0.39 | The home team's the starter's WHIP this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: recent travel burden from distance, direction, time-zone shift, altitude gain, and road chaintravel_circadian_burden_symdiff | -0.27947 | The home team's recent travel burden from distance, direction, time-zone shift, altitude gain, and road chain minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: whether prior venue history was available to measure travel burdentravel_circadian_history_available_symavg | 0.5 | The two teams' average whether prior venue history was available to measure travel burden. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Umpire walk factor (prior year)ump_bb_factor_prior | Missing | The assigned plate umpire’s prior-year walk tendency relative to league average. More walks create additional baserunners and run-scoring opportunities, although assignments are often unavailable until game time. |
Umpire strikeout factor (prior year)ump_k_factor_prior | Missing | The assigned plate umpire’s prior-year strikeout tendency relative to league average. A larger strike zone or strike-friendly approach can suppress contact and scoring, although assignments are often unavailable until game time. |
Umpire run factor (prior year)ump_run_factor_prior | Missing | The assigned plate umpire’s prior-year run-scoring tendency relative to league average, combining zone size with how consistently it is called. It sits closer to the outcome than the strikeout and walk factors do, which is why the run head selects it, although assignments are often unavailable until game time. |
Team-strength edge (venue-neutral)venue_neutral_win_strength_diff | 0.02212 | The home team's season winning percentage minus the away team's, independent of who is hosting. The average benefit of playing at home is captured separately, so this is a clean measure of which club is better. |
Matchup edge: wins above replacement pace per plate appearancewar_per_pa_symdiff | Missing | The home team's wins above replacement pace per plate appearance minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: wins above replacement this seasonwar_ytd_symdiff | Missing | The home team's wins above replacement this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: winning percentage over the last 10 gameswin_rate_l10_symdiff | -0.1 | The home team's winning percentage over the last 10 games minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: winning percentage over the last 30 gameswin_rate_l30_symdiff | 0 | The home team's winning percentage over the last 30 games minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: expected wins above replacement this seasonxwar_ytd_symdiff | Missing | The home team's expected wins above replacement this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers — 130 aligned inputs66 missing
| Feature | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
Combined level: bulk-relief outs recorded over the last 7 daysbp_bulk_outs_7d_symavg | 17 | The two teams' average bulk-relief outs recorded over the last 7 days. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Combined level: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 daysbp_closer_outs_7d_symavg | 24.5 | The two teams' average high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 daysbp_closer_outs_7d_symdiff | 1 | The home team's high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relieversbp_closer_share_7d_symavg | 0.25388 | The two teams' average share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relieversbp_closer_share_7d_symdiff | -0.03157 | The home team's share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 daysbp_era_7d_symavg | 3.53788 | The two teams' average the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 daysbp_era_7d_symdiff | -1.41862 | The home team's the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: bullpen fatigue riskbp_fatigue_risk_symavg | 3.08193 | The two teams' average bullpen fatigue risk. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: bullpen fatigue riskbp_fatigue_risk_symdiff | -1.38671 | The home team's bullpen fatigue risk minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: bullpen innings worked over the last 3 daysbp_ip_3d_symdiff | -0.66667 | The home team's bullpen innings worked over the last 3 days minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: share of recent bullpen work handled by long relieversbp_long_relief_share_7d_symavg | 0.12199 | The two teams' average share of recent bullpen work handled by long relievers. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Combined level: middle-relief outs recorded over the last 7 daysbp_middle_outs_7d_symavg | 22.5 | The two teams' average middle-relief outs recorded over the last 7 days. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: middle-relief outs recorded over the last 7 daysbp_middle_outs_7d_symdiff | -5 | The home team's middle-relief outs recorded over the last 7 days minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
bullpen official bulk outs 7d (combined level)bp_official_bulk_outs_7d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official bulk outs 7d (matchup edge)bp_official_bulk_outs_7d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official closer outs 7d (combined level)bp_official_closer_outs_7d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official closer outs 7d (matchup edge)bp_official_closer_outs_7d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official closer share 7d (combined level)bp_official_closer_share_7d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official closer share 7d (matchup edge)bp_official_closer_share_7d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official era 7d (combined level)bp_official_era_7d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official era 7d (matchup edge)bp_official_era_7d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official fatigue risk (combined level)bp_official_fatigue_risk_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official fatigue risk (matchup edge)bp_official_fatigue_risk_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official ip 3d (combined level)bp_official_ip_3d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official ip 3d (matchup edge)bp_official_ip_3d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official middle outs 7d (combined level)bp_official_middle_outs_7d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official middle outs 7d (matchup edge)bp_official_middle_outs_7d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official setup outs 7d (combined level)bp_official_setup_outs_7d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official setup outs 7d (matchup edge)bp_official_setup_outs_7d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official whip 7d (combined level)bp_official_whip_7d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
bullpen official whip 7d (matchup edge)bp_official_whip_7d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
Combined level: setup-relief outs recorded over the last 7 daysbp_setup_outs_7d_symavg | 21 | The two teams' average setup-relief outs recorded over the last 7 days. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Combined level: the bullpen's WHIP over the last 7 daysbp_whip_7d_symavg | 1.11958 | The two teams' average the bullpen's WHIP over the last 7 days. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the bullpen's WHIP over the last 7 daysbp_whip_7d_symdiff | -0.52488 | The home team's the bullpen's WHIP over the last 7 days minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Venue elevationelevation_ft | 600 | The ballpark elevation in feet above sea level. Thinner air at higher elevation reduces drag on batted balls and is associated with greater carry and a higher run environment. |
Game-time temperaturegame_temperature_f | Missing | The pregame temperature in degrees Fahrenheit. Warmer air is generally less dense and can increase batted-ball carry, while temperature also changes pitcher grip and the overall scoring environment. |
Combined level: the batting average of the batters actually in the lineuplineup_ba_symavg | 0.25 | The two teams' average the batting average of the batters actually in the lineup. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the batting average of the batters actually in the lineuplineup_ba_symdiff | 0 | The home team's the batting average of the batters actually in the lineup minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: how hard the lineup hits the ball, by Statcast exit velocitylineup_exit_velo_symdiff | 0 | The home team's how hard the lineup hits the ball, by Statcast exit velocity minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: the lineup's season-to-date defensive error preventionlineup_fg_def_current_symdiff | Missing | The home lineup's MLB Stats date-range errors prevented relative to the same-position league rate, converted to run units, minus the away lineup's. The legacy contract name is retained for model compatibility; this is not FanGraphs Defense, DRS, or OAA. A positive number favors the home team. Future training rejects the old FanGraphs fielding snapshots because that endpoint ignored their requested dates. |
Combined level: the lineup's prior-year defensive runslineup_fg_def_prior_symavg | Missing | The two teams' average the lineup's prior-year defensive runs. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year defensive runslineup_fg_def_prior_symdiff | Missing | The home team's the lineup's prior-year defensive runs minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: the lineup's season-to-date wOBAlineup_fg_woba_current_symdiff | Missing | The home team's the lineup's season-to-date wOBA minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: the lineup's prior-year wOBAlineup_fg_woba_prior_symavg | Missing | The two teams' average the lineup's prior-year wOBA. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year wOBAlineup_fg_woba_prior_symdiff | Missing | The home team's the lineup's prior-year wOBA minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: the lineup's season-to-date wRC+lineup_fg_wrc_plus_current_symdiff | Missing | The home team's the lineup's season-to-date wRC+ minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: the lineup's prior-year wRC+lineup_fg_wrc_plus_prior_symavg | Missing | The two teams' average the lineup's prior-year wRC+. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year wRC+lineup_fg_wrc_plus_prior_symdiff | Missing | The home team's the lineup's prior-year wRC+ minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: the share of the lineup’s batted balls struck at 95 mph or harderlineup_hard_hit_pct_symdiff | 0 | The home team's the share of the lineup’s batted balls struck at 95 mph or harder minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: lineup on-base percentagelineup_obp_symavg | 0.32 | The two teams' average lineup on-base percentage. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Combined level: lineup slugging percentagelineup_slg_symavg | 0.4 | The two teams' average lineup slugging percentage. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Combined level: lineup expected weighted on-base average from Statcast contactlineup_xwoba_symavg | 0.32 | The two teams' average lineup expected weighted on-base average from Statcast contact. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: record-vs-run-differential luck factorluck_symdiff | -0.03904 | The home team's record-vs-run-differential luck factor minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: manager career games (the evidence behind the record)mgr_games_career_symdiff | 0 | The home team's manager career games (the evidence behind the record) minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: manager career winning percentagemgr_win_rate_career_symdiff | 0.07407 | The home team's manager career winning percentage minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: manager team winning percentage this seasonmgr_win_rate_ytd_symdiff | 0.07407 | The home team's manager team winning percentage this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: offensive production against the opposing starter hand after broad team qualityoffense_vs_sp_hand_residual_symavg | 0.10931 | The two teams' average offensive production against the opposing starter hand after broad team quality. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: offensive production against the opposing starter hand after broad team qualityoffense_vs_sp_hand_residual_symdiff | -0.21863 | The home team's offensive production against the opposing starter hand after broad team quality minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: same-handed lineup alignment with the opposing starter’s pitch mixpitch_mix_alignment_same_hand_symdiff | Missing | The home team's same-handed lineup alignment with the opposing starter’s pitch mix minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: lineup results against breaking pitches matched to opposing breaking-ball usagepitch_mix_breaking_interaction_symdiff | Missing | The home team's lineup results against breaking pitches matched to opposing breaking-ball usage minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: spread between the lineup’s strongest and weakest pitch-type matchupspitch_mix_lineup_range_symdiff | Missing | The home team's spread between the lineup’s strongest and weakest pitch-type matchups minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: opposing starter pitch usage concentrated in the lineup’s weaker pitch bucketspitch_mix_mismatch_symdiff | Missing | The home team's opposing starter pitch usage concentrated in the lineup’s weaker pitch buckets minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: lineup results against offspeed pitches matched to opposing offspeed usagepitch_mix_offspeed_interaction_symdiff | Missing | The home team's lineup results against offspeed pitches matched to opposing offspeed usage minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: difference between pitcher pitch-quality results and the lineup’s results against that mixpitch_mix_quality_gap_symdiff | Missing | The home team's difference between pitcher pitch-quality results and the lineup’s results against that mix minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: proximity to the start-of-day playoff qualification cutoffplayoff_cutoff_proximity_symdiff | -0.21743 | The home team's proximity to the start-of-day playoff qualification cutoff minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: start-of-day playoff-race leverageplayoff_leverage_symdiff | -0.02118 | The home team's start-of-day playoff-race leverage minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoffplayoff_wild_card_margin_symdiff | 11 | The home team's start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoff minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowedpythag_symdiff | 0.10777 | The home team's expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: runs allowed per game over the last 10 gamesrapg_l10_symavg | 3.6 | The two teams' average runs allowed per game over the last 10 games. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: runs allowed per game over the last 10 gamesrapg_l10_symdiff | -1.2 | The home team's runs allowed per game over the last 10 games minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: runs allowed per game this seasonrapg_ytd_symavg | 3.98668 | The two teams' average runs allowed per game this season. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: runs allowed per game this seasonrapg_ytd_symdiff | -0.34372 | The home team's runs allowed per game this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: runs scored per game over the last 10 gamesrpg_l10_symdiff | -1.4 | The home team's runs scored per game over the last 10 games minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: runs scored per game this seasonrpg_ytd_symavg | 4.80571 | The two teams' average runs scored per game this season. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: runs scored per game this seasonrpg_ytd_symdiff | 0.66019 | The home team's runs scored per game this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: season run differentialrun_diff_ytd_symdiff | 1.00391 | The home team's season run differential minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Run-scoring park factorrun_park_factor | 0.96791 | A venue multiplier for total scoring, where 1.00 is neutral and values above 1.00 indicate a park that has increased runs. Park dimensions, altitude, and hitting background can make otherwise similar contact produce different totals. |
Matchup edge: batters the starter has faced this season (evidence weight)sp_bf_ytd_symdiff | 665 | The home team's batters the starter has faced this season (evidence weight) minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: the starter's breaking-ball usage sharesp_breaking_usage_pct_symavg | 0.22812 | The two teams' average the starter's breaking-ball usage share. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the starter's breaking-ball usage sharesp_breaking_usage_pct_symdiff | -0.04375 | The home team's the starter's breaking-ball usage share minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: the starter's ERA over the last 30 dayssp_era_30d_symavg | Missing | The two teams' average the starter's ERA over the last 30 days. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the starter's ERA over the last 30 dayssp_era_30d_symdiff | Missing | The home team's the starter's ERA over the last 30 days minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: the starter's ERA this seasonsp_era_ytd_symavg | 3.15 | The two teams' average the starter's ERA this season. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the starter's ERA this seasonsp_era_ytd_symdiff | -2.7 | The home team's the starter's ERA this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: the starter's fastball usage sharesp_fastball_usage_pct_symdiff | 0.54375 | The home team's the starter's fastball usage share minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: the starting pitcher’s average fastball velocitysp_fb_velo_symavg | 96.50085 | The two teams' average the starting pitcher’s average fastball velocity. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the starter's season-to-date strikeout-minus-walk ratesp_fg_kbb_current_symdiff | Missing | The home team's the starter's season-to-date strikeout-minus-walk rate minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk ratesp_fg_kbb_prior_symavg | Missing | The two teams' average the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk rate. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk ratesp_fg_kbb_prior_symdiff | Missing | The home team's the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk rate minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: the starter's season-to-date xFIP (lower is better)sp_fg_xfip_current_symdiff | Missing | The home team's the starter's season-to-date xFIP (lower is better) minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better)sp_fg_xfip_prior_symavg | Missing | The two teams' average the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better). It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better)sp_fg_xfip_prior_symdiff | Missing | The home team's the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better) minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: the starter's strikeouts per nine this seasonsp_k9_ytd_symavg | 10.49 | The two teams' average the starter's strikeouts per nine this season. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the starter's strikeouts per nine this seasonsp_k9_ytd_symdiff | 4.98 | The home team's the starter's strikeouts per nine this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
starting pitcher official bf this season (combined level)sp_official_bf_ytd_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official bf this season (matchup edge)sp_official_bf_ytd_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official coverage 30d (combined level)sp_official_coverage_30d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official coverage 30d (matchup edge)sp_official_coverage_30d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official coverage this season (combined level)sp_official_coverage_ytd_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official coverage this season (matchup edge)sp_official_coverage_ytd_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official era 30d (combined level)sp_official_era_30d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official era 30d (matchup edge)sp_official_era_30d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official era this season (combined level)sp_official_era_ytd_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official era this season (matchup edge)sp_official_era_ytd_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official k9 30d (combined level)sp_official_k9_30d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official k9 30d (matchup edge)sp_official_k9_30d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official k9 this season (combined level)sp_official_k9_ytd_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official k9 this season (matchup edge)sp_official_k9_ytd_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official whip 30d (combined level)sp_official_whip_30d_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official whip 30d (matchup edge)sp_official_whip_30d_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official whip this season (combined level)sp_official_whip_ytd_symavg | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
starting pitcher official whip this season (matchup edge)sp_official_whip_ytd_symdiff | Missing | A supporting baseball input used by the model. Its plain-language definition has not been added to this report yet. |
Combined level: the starter's offspeed-pitch usage sharesp_offspeed_usage_pct_symavg | 0.125 | The two teams' average the starter's offspeed-pitch usage share. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the starter's offspeed-pitch usage sharesp_offspeed_usage_pct_symdiff | -0.25 | The home team's the starter's offspeed-pitch usage share minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: the starter's pitch-mix diversity rather than reliance on one pitch familysp_pitch_mix_entropy_symavg | 0.74919 | The two teams' average the starter's pitch-mix diversity rather than reliance on one pitch family. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the starter's pitch-mix diversity rather than reliance on one pitch familysp_pitch_mix_entropy_symdiff | -0.50163 | The home team's the starter's pitch-mix diversity rather than reliance on one pitch family minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: how often batters swing and miss against the startersp_whiff_pct_symavg | 0.29945 | The two teams' average how often batters swing and miss against the starter. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Combined level: the starter's WHIP this seasonsp_whip_ytd_symavg | 1.05 | The two teams' average the starter's WHIP this season. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Matchup edge: the starter's WHIP this seasonsp_whip_ytd_symdiff | -0.5 | The home team's the starter's WHIP this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: recent travel burden from distance, direction, time-zone shift, altitude gain, and road chaintravel_circadian_burden_symdiff | -0.62836 | The home team's recent travel burden from distance, direction, time-zone shift, altitude gain, and road chain minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Combined level: whether prior venue history was available to measure travel burdentravel_circadian_history_available_symavg | 0.5 | The two teams' average whether prior venue history was available to measure travel burden. It describes the overall quality or run environment of the matchup rather than which side is favored. |
Umpire walk factor (prior year)ump_bb_factor_prior | Missing | The assigned plate umpire’s prior-year walk tendency relative to league average. More walks create additional baserunners and run-scoring opportunities, although assignments are often unavailable until game time. |
Umpire strikeout factor (prior year)ump_k_factor_prior | Missing | The assigned plate umpire’s prior-year strikeout tendency relative to league average. A larger strike zone or strike-friendly approach can suppress contact and scoring, although assignments are often unavailable until game time. |
Umpire run factor (prior year)ump_run_factor_prior | Missing | The assigned plate umpire’s prior-year run-scoring tendency relative to league average, combining zone size with how consistently it is called. It sits closer to the outcome than the strikeout and walk factors do, which is why the run head selects it, although assignments are often unavailable until game time. |
Team-strength edge (venue-neutral)venue_neutral_win_strength_diff | 0.06873 | The home team's season winning percentage minus the away team's, independent of who is hosting. The average benefit of playing at home is captured separately, so this is a clean measure of which club is better. |
Matchup edge: wins above replacement pace per plate appearancewar_per_pa_symdiff | Missing | The home team's wins above replacement pace per plate appearance minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: wins above replacement this seasonwar_ytd_symdiff | Missing | The home team's wins above replacement this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: winning percentage over the last 10 gameswin_rate_l10_symdiff | 0 | The home team's winning percentage over the last 10 games minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: winning percentage over the last 30 gameswin_rate_l30_symdiff | 0.03333 | The home team's winning percentage over the last 30 games minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Matchup edge: expected wins above replacement this seasonxwar_ytd_symdiff | Missing | The home team's expected wins above replacement this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. |
Historical input health
Daily serving provenance from the append-only projection decision history. This shows whether a family is repeatedly fabricating inputs across runs instead of only exposing the latest board.
1056 game-run observations across 14 days; 0 complete or unexplained defaults and 2211 partial-coverage observations. Each game counts once per projection run even when both moneyline and totals decisions were persisted.
| Family | Faults | 09/19 | 09/20 | 09/21 | 09/22 | 09/23 | 09/24 | 09/25 | 09/26 | 09/27 | 09/28 | 09/29 | 09/30 | 10/01 | 10/02 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starter rolling | 0/1056 | ◐125 | ◐112 | ◐48 | ◐113 | ◐116 | ◐126 | ◐132 | ◐87 | ◐74 | ◐9 | ◐23 | ◐27 | ◐5 | ◐6 |
| Fangraphs prior form | 0/1056 | ◐32 | ◐55 | ◐20 | ◐51 | ◐63 | ◐86 | ◐69 | ◐47 | ◐36 | ◐9 | ◐9 | ◐9 | ◐9 | ◐8 |
| Park adjusted lineup | 0/1056 | ◐55 | ◐59 | ◐12 | ◐63 | ◐64 | ◐53 | ◐65 | ◐36 | ◐45 | ○12 | ◐11 | ◐16 | ◐4 | ○8 |
| Fangraphs current form | 0/1056 | ◐15 | ◐19 | ◐11 | ◐20 | ◐25 | ◐33 | ◐38 | ◐16 | ◐12 | ◐8 | ◐4 | ◐8 | ◐5 | ◐8 |
| Bullpen fatigue | 0/1056 | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● |
| Bullpen roles | 0/1056 | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● |
| Fangraphs projections | 0/1056 | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● |
| Lineup rates | 0/1056 | ○65 | ○49 | ○43 | ○52 | ○61 | ○81 | ○66 | ○60 | ○38 | ○12 | ○11 | ○16 | ○5 | ○8 |
| Lineup state | 0/1056 | ·126 | ·114 | ·55 | ·115 | ·125 | ·134 | ·135 | ·88 | ·74 | ·12 | ·26 | ·32 | ·10 | ·8 |
| Manager record | 0/1056 | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● |
| Manager script | 0/1056 | ·126 | ·114 | ·55 | ·115 | ·125 | ·134 | ·135 | ·88 | ·74 | ·12 | ·26 | ·32 | ·10 | ·8 |
| Park factors | 0/1056 | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● |
| Pitch mix matchup xwar | 0/1056 | ○65 | ○49 | ○43 | ○52 | ○61 | ○81 | ○66 | ○60 | ○38 | ○12 | ○11 | ○16 | ○5 | ○8 |
| Pitch mix usage | 0/1056 | ○22 | ○19 | ○11 | ○20 | ○30 | ○33 | ○35 | ○26 | ○12 | ○8 | ○4 | ○8 | ○5 | ○8 |
| Statcast batters | 0/1056 | ○65 | ○49 | ○43 | ○52 | ○61 | ○81 | ○66 | ○60 | ○38 | ○12 | ○11 | ○16 | ○5 | ○8 |
| Statcast pitchers | 0/1056 | ○22 | ○19 | ○11 | ○20 | ○30 | ○33 | ○35 | ○26 | ○12 | ○8 | ○4 | ○8 | ○5 | ○8 |
| Team record | 0/1056 | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● | ● |
| Umpire form | 0/1056 | ·83 | ·75 | ·47 | ·79 | ·85 | ·98 | ·91 | ·53 | ·37 | ·12 | ·15 | ·20 | ·6 | ·8 |
What this view cannot tell you
20 of 31 families own at least one column in an active prediction head. A construction defect in any of the other 11 is still worth fixing, but cannot move an active prediction. Win and run contracts are counted separately so a family selected out of win probability is not mistaken for irrelevant to totals.
Only 18 of 31 feature families report per-game serving provenance. The other 13 do not need a default record: 7 are registry-proven to leave NaN, expose an availability flag, or derive only from already-instrumented inputs, and 6 has no active model columns. No deployed family remains structurally unverified.
Every family has train/serve parity coverage or an explicit waiver, but parity checks construction rather than whether a particular live lookup resolved. Adding Statcast provenance previously exposed a coverage-date bug that made same-date snapshots miss under strict-before lookup; that defect is fixed. The two genuine neutral substitutions found in this pass—manager record and park factor—now report per-game provenance like every other fallback.
Reading a default
A default is not automatically a problem. No lineup exists at 1am for a 7pm game, and the serving path strips lineups below confirmed-lineup on purpose so serving never sees more than training did. Those rows are also scored informationally with staking disabled, so an expected default never reaches a bet.
What matters is a default the stage should have covered. Those are the only cells marked as faults, and they are the ones worth chasing.