Baseball · Game notebook · 2026-09-30
Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres
01 · Forecast
What did we believe?
No current actionable forecast is substituted for this game. The recorded checkpoints below are the historical evidence.
Moneyline · 8 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Chicago Cubs · 49.5%+124 at polymarket · recorded edge +4.9%
Paper recommendation
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Chicago Cubs · 49.5%+116 at the-odds-api · recorded edge +3.2%
Paper recommendation
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 7.5 · 1 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 7.5 · 50.0%+104 at the-odds-api · recorded edge +1.0%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 7.5 · 50.0%+104 at the-odds-api · recorded edge +1.0%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 8.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 8.5 · 53.9%-168 at polymarket · recorded edge -9.3%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 8.5 · 46.1%+152 at kalshi · recorded edge +6.4%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 4.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 4.5 · 83.7%-458 at kalshi · recorded edge +1.6%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 4.5 · 16.3%+351 at kalshi · recorded edge -5.8%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 11.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 11.5 · 77.7%-564 at kalshi · recorded edge -7.3%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 11.5 · 22.3%+456 at kalshi · recorded edge +4.3%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 5.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 5.5 · 73.4%-239 at kalshi · recorded edge +2.9%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 5.5 · 26.6%+198 at kalshi · recorded edge -7.0%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 6.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 6.5 · 34.6%+140 at polymarket · recorded edge -8.1%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 6.5 · 65.4%-154 at kalshi · recorded edge +4.7%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 10.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 10.5 · 29.7%+313 at kalshi · recorded edge +5.5%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 10.5 · 70.3%-381 at kalshi · recorded edge -8.9%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 9.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 9.5 · 36.2%+229 at kalshi · recorded edge +5.8%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 9.5 · 63.8%-276 at kalshi · recorded edge -9.6%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 3.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 3.5 · 10.8%+574 at kalshi · recorded edge -4.0%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 3.5 · 89.2%-719 at kalshi · recorded edge +1.4%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 7.5 · 3 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 7.5 · 49.3%+101 at polymarket · recorded edge -0.5%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 7.5 · 49.8%+109 at polymarket · recorded edge +2.0%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
02 · Why
Connect the forecast to the baseball
Recorded first look · confirmed-lineup
Tree contributions are raw log-odds toward the home team (+) or away team (−), before calibration. They are not probability points or proof of causation.
| Baseball input | Recorded value | Contribution |
|---|---|---|
Matchup edge: expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowedThe home team's expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.053659673321388546 | -0.0439 |
Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year defensive runsThe home team's the lineup's prior-year defensive runs minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -21.444863652368078 | -0.0437 |
Matchup edge: start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoffThe home team's start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoff minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 3 | +0.0387 |
Matchup edge: start-of-day playoff-race leverageThe home team's start-of-day playoff-race leverage minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.13910994106456276 | -0.0384 |
Matchup edge: season run differentialThe home team's season run differential minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.5521472392638036 | -0.0327 |
Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk rateThe home team's the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk rate minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 0.014819920000000014 | +0.0278 |
Matchup edge: proximity to the start-of-day playoff qualification cutoffThe home team's proximity to the start-of-day playoff qualification cutoff minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.4529341724580625 | -0.0217 |
Matchup edge: the starter's season-to-date strikeout-minus-walk rateThe home team's the starter's season-to-date strikeout-minus-walk rate minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 0.060190469999999996 | +0.0209 |
Recorded input excerpt (16 values)
- Matchup edge: expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed
- -0.053659673321388546
- Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year defensive runs
- -21.444863652368078
- Matchup edge: start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoff
- 3
- Matchup edge: start-of-day playoff-race leverage
- -0.13910994106456276
- Matchup edge: season run differential
- -0.5521472392638036
- Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk rate
- 0.014819920000000014
- Matchup edge: proximity to the start-of-day playoff qualification cutoff
- -0.4529341724580625
- Matchup edge: the starter's season-to-date strikeout-minus-walk rate
- 0.060190469999999996
- Combined level: bulk-relief outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 9
- Combined level: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 21
- Matchup edge: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 6
- Combined level: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers
- 0.2348314606741573
- Matchup edge: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers
- 0.06966292134831459
- Combined level: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days
- 3.9235955056179774
- Matchup edge: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days
- 0.6471910112359551
- Combined level: bullpen fatigue risk
- 3.647640449438202
This bounded excerpt is not the complete feature vector. Null values are not assumed to be zero.
Recorded latest pregame · confirmed-lineup
Tree contributions are raw log-odds toward the home team (+) or away team (−), before calibration. They are not probability points or proof of causation.
| Baseball input | Recorded value | Contribution |
|---|---|---|
Matchup edge: expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowedThe home team's expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.053659673321388546 | -0.0439 |
Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year defensive runsThe home team's the lineup's prior-year defensive runs minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -21.444863652368078 | -0.0437 |
Matchup edge: start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoffThe home team's start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoff minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 3 | +0.0387 |
Matchup edge: start-of-day playoff-race leverageThe home team's start-of-day playoff-race leverage minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.13910994106456276 | -0.0384 |
Matchup edge: season run differentialThe home team's season run differential minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.5521472392638036 | -0.0327 |
Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk rateThe home team's the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk rate minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 0.014819920000000014 | +0.0278 |
Matchup edge: proximity to the start-of-day playoff qualification cutoffThe home team's proximity to the start-of-day playoff qualification cutoff minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.4529341724580625 | -0.0217 |
Matchup edge: the starter's season-to-date strikeout-minus-walk rateThe home team's the starter's season-to-date strikeout-minus-walk rate minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 0.060190469999999996 | +0.0209 |
Recorded input excerpt (16 values)
- Matchup edge: expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed
- -0.053659673321388546
- Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year defensive runs
- -21.444863652368078
- Matchup edge: start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoff
- 3
- Matchup edge: start-of-day playoff-race leverage
- -0.13910994106456276
- Matchup edge: season run differential
- -0.5521472392638036
- Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk rate
- 0.014819920000000014
- Matchup edge: proximity to the start-of-day playoff qualification cutoff
- -0.4529341724580625
- Matchup edge: the starter's season-to-date strikeout-minus-walk rate
- 0.060190469999999996
- Combined level: bulk-relief outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 9
- Combined level: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 21
- Matchup edge: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 6
- Combined level: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers
- 0.2348314606741573
- Matchup edge: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers
- 0.06966292134831459
- Combined level: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days
- 3.9235955056179774
- Matchup edge: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days
- 0.6471910112359551
- Combined level: bullpen fatigue risk
- 3.647640449438202
This bounded excerpt is not the complete feature vector. Null values are not assumed to be zero.
Tabular model explanation
No game-specific tabular explanation was retained.
Eye-test prompt: which recorded input fits what you saw, and which would you question? A single win or loss cannot establish that the reasoning was right.
03 · Movement
What changed?
Recorded moneyline prices
Prices move at a fixed selection; a change in a totals line is a different contract. Collection runs independently of opening this notebook.
Latest available books and main / alternate totals
Current board coverage may no longer include completed games. An empty board is not proof that no historical quotes were collected.
Model snapshots
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 38 snapshots · +0.5% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 43 snapshots · +0.4% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 6 snapshots · -0.2% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 4 snapshots · +0.2% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 2 snapshots · +0.2% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 6 snapshots · -0.2% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 6 snapshots · +0.2% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 6 snapshots · -0.2% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 6 snapshots · +0.2% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 6 snapshots · -0.2% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 6 snapshots · +0.2% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 6 snapshots · +0.2% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 6 snapshots · -0.2% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 6 snapshots · +0.2% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 6 snapshots · -0.2% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 6 snapshots · -0.1% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 6 snapshots · +0.1% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 6 snapshots · -0.1% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 6 snapshots · +0.1% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 6 snapshots · +0.0% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 11 snapshots · +0.0% change
From to
04 · Review
Price quality and result are separate questions
No settled score recorded yet.
| Market | Latest pregame selection | Forecast | Outcome | Recorded CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total 7.5 | Over 7.5 | 50.0% | Pending | +0.0% |
| Moneyline | Chicago Cubs | 49.5% | Lost | +1.7% |
| Total 8.5 | Over 8.5 | 46.1% | Lost | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 4.5 | Under 4.5 | 16.3% | Lost | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 11.5 | Over 11.5 | 22.3% | Lost | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 5.5 | Under 5.5 | 26.6% | Won | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 6.5 | Over 6.5 | 65.4% | Lost | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 10.5 | Under 10.5 | 70.3% | Won | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 9.5 | Under 9.5 | 63.8% | Won | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 3.5 | Over 3.5 | 89.2% | Won | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 7.5 | Over 7.5 | 49.8% | Pending | -1.9% |
Recorded CLV compares the first and latest eligible pregame implied probabilities under the existing history policy. It is not a verified sportsbook closing tick. Missing or changed-selection comparisons stay unavailable.
A good price can lose; a poor forecast can win. Use forecast quality and matched model cohorts to judge repeated performance.
Technical details
- Forecast captured
- Moneyline captured
- Total market captured
- Score last fetched
- Unavailable
The score source does not supply a per-game update timestamp; fetch time records when this score feed was retrieved, not when the score changed.
Model − market is a descriptive runs difference using the recorded total from within 30 minutes before this pregame forecast. It does not establish a qualifying paper bet.
Model input coverage
This record does not contain per-game input coverage. Availability cannot be inferred from the displayed probabilities.