New York YankeesatChicago White Sox
· Final 1-2
New York Yankees
Chicago White SoxTotalOver 5.5 -239Edge +10.0% · Risk 1.6% · To win 0.7%Paper stake +$164Execution record →
Lost−1.6%-$164
Baseball
Today
Track today's paper bets as results come in, review yesterday's paper performance, then scan current projections by decision, edge, and information stage. No wagers are placed.
Today
Paper bets and results
July 31, 2026
No paper bets have been recommended today yet.When a projection becomes a recommended paper bet, it stays here and updates as settlement arrives.
Yesterday
Paper bets and results
July 30, 2026
- Paper bets
- 8
- Paper risked
- 11.7%
- Paper to win
- 10.2%
- Settled
- 8/8
- Paper P/L
- −3.6%
- -$363
New York YankeesatChicago White Sox
· Final 1-2TotalOver 9.5 +206Edge +12.4% · Risk 1.7% · To win 3.4%Paper stake +$166Execution record →
Lost−1.7%-$166
New York YankeesatChicago White Sox
· Final 1-2TotalOver 7.5 +101Edge +14.0% · Risk 0.5% · To win 0.5%Paper stake +$50Execution record →
Lost−0.5%-$50
New York YankeesatChicago White Sox
· Final 1-2TotalOver 8.5 +140Edge +13.0% · Risk 0.4% · To win 0.6%Paper stake +$43Execution record →
Lost−0.4%-$43
Miami MarlinsatNew York Mets
· Final 2-4
Miami Marlins
New York MetsTotalOver 7.5 +119Edge +10.8% · Risk 2.0% · To win 2.4%Paper stake +$200Execution record →
Lost−2.0%-$200
Washington NationalsatAtlanta Braves
· Final 4-5
Washington Nationals
Atlanta BravesTotalUnder 12.5 -251Edge +10.1% · Risk 2.0% · To win 0.8%Paper stake +$200Execution record →
Won+0.8%+$80
Washington NationalsatAtlanta Braves
· Final 4-5TotalUnder 10.5 -126Edge +10.1% · Risk 1.5% · To win 1.2%Paper stake +$153Execution record →
Won+1.2%+$121
Washington NationalsatAtlanta Braves
· Final 4-5TotalUnder 13.5 -340Edge +10.1% · Risk 2.0% · To win 0.6%Paper stake +$200Execution record →
Won+0.6%+$59
Upcoming
Projection status and paper picks
Updated · Times shown in your browser's timezone
No paper bets currently qualify1 game is close enough to watch
- Games
- 8
- Paper bets
- 0
- Watchlist
- 1
- Confirmed
- 1/8
- Paper stake
- $0
joint KellyTotals portfolio risks 0.0% of bankroll4,096 modeled outcomes
- Standalone model
- Coherent run distribution per game
- Joint full Kelly
- 0.0%
- Robust joint Kelly
- 0.0%
- Deployable policy
- 0.0% · $0
Alternate totals are sized together against one bankroll. The robust portfolio blends 50% contemporaneous market distribution with the model, includes a ±0.75-run shared environment stress, then applies 25% Kelly and a 2.0% per-bet cap. Full deployment is constrained below 99.9%.
warnData quality: Projection feature coverage is usable with warnings.5 details
- 2 of 16 probable pitcher starter slots used fallback starter features.
- 7 of 8 projections use pre-lineup information and are published for context only; staking is disabled until both lineups are confirmed.
- 2 of 27 confirmed-lineup batter slots used fallback batter features.
- Some optional model feature artifacts are missing.
- Context feature sources are stale or missing: manager_form.
New York YankeesatChicago Cubs
Will Warren vs. Shota Imanaga
Best current leanNew York Yankees +140New York Yankees is 1.8 pts short of the betting thresholdImplied edge+8.2%Confirmed lineupsWatchlist
New York YankeesatChicago Cubs
Chicago CubsWill Warren vs. Shota Imanaga
WatchlistNew York Yankees is 1.8 pts short of the betting thresholdBoth official lineups are confirmed
MoneylineNew York Yankees +140
- Model probability
- 48.1%
- Market probability
- 39.9%
- Implied edge
- +8.2%
- Expected profit
- +$0.15 per $1
No bet1.8 pts below the 10% edge threshold
Model and sizing details
FanGraphs 46.4% · kalshi · Standalone full Kelly 11.0% ($1,103). Paper policy applies a reduced Kelly multiplier and stake cap. No wager is placed.
TotalOver 9.5 +134
- Model probability
- 46.2%
- Market probability
- 41.8%
- Implied edge
- +4.4%
- Expected profit
- +$0.08 per $1
No bet5.6 pts below the edge threshold
Model and sizing details
Model total 9.1 vs. line 10.5 (−1.4) · kalshi · polymarket · Standalone full Kelly 6.0% ($602). This is the ladder edge leader. The highest EV, standalone Kelly, and joint portfolio choices may be different lines. No wager is placed.
Live lineupsLoading…
Pitcher matchupShota Imanaga uses fastball pitches 17 pts more often
Will WarrenThrough Jul 26
- Fastball
- 57%
- Breaking
- 22%
- Offspeed
- 17%
- Other
- 3%
Mix diversity 64%
Shota ImanagaThrough Jul 25
- Fastball
- 75%
- Breaking
- 25%
- Offspeed
- 0%
- Other
- 0%
Mix diversity 40%
Research modelNew York Yankees +1.5% paper edge
The earlier-market residual model starts from an earlier no-vig moneyline and tests whether baseball features can improve that market baseline. Historical evaluation has not beaten the market, so this is tracked only for future evidence. It never authorizes or sizes a live or paper bet.
- Paper selection
- New York Yankees +140
- Paper edge
- +1.5%
- Feature coverage
- 93%
- Price captured
Pittsburgh PiratesatCincinnati Reds
Paul Skenes vs. Hunter Greene
Best current leanCincinnati Reds +105Waiting for both confirmed lineupsImplied edge+6.7%Probable startersInfo only
Pittsburgh PiratesatCincinnati Reds
Pittsburgh Pirates
Cincinnati RedsPaul Skenes vs. Hunter Greene
Info onlyWaiting for both confirmed lineupsProbable starters are available; betting waits for both confirmed lineups
MoneylineCincinnati Reds +105
- Model probability
- 53.4%
- Market probability
- 46.7%
- Implied edge
- +6.7%
- Expected profit
- +$0.09 per $1
Info onlyWaiting for both confirmed lineups
Model and sizing details
FanGraphs 48.1% · kalshi · Standalone full Kelly 9.0% ($902). Paper policy applies a reduced Kelly multiplier and stake cap. No wager is placed.
TotalOver 9.5 +188
- Model probability
- 39.5%
- Market probability
- 34.5%
- Implied edge
- +4.9%
- Expected profit
- +$0.14 per $1
Info onlyWaiting for complete actionable model inputs
Model and sizing details
Model total 8.3 vs. line 8.5 (−0.2) · kalshi · polymarket · Standalone full Kelly 7.3% ($726). This is the ladder edge leader. The highest EV, standalone Kelly, and joint portfolio choices may be different lines. No wager is placed.
Live lineupsLoading…
Pitcher matchupPaul Skenes uses offspeed pitches 8 pts more often
Paul SkenesThrough Jul 25
- Fastball
- 66%
- Breaking
- 26%
- Offspeed
- 8%
- Other
- 0%
Mix diversity 58%
Hunter GreeneThrough Jul 25
- Fastball
- 67%
- Breaking
- 33%
- Offspeed
- 0%
- Other
- 0%
Mix diversity 45%
Research modelAwaiting a research forecast
The earlier-market residual model starts from an earlier no-vig moneyline and tests whether baseball features can improve that market baseline. Historical evaluation has not beaten the market, so this is tracked only for future evidence. It never authorizes or sizes a live or paper bet.
The next successful research run will populate this section.Philadelphia PhilliesatBaltimore Orioles
Unknown starter vs. Brandon Young
Best current leanUnder 4.5 +625Waiting for complete actionable model inputsImplied edge+5.5%EarlyInfo only
Philadelphia PhilliesatBaltimore Orioles
Philadelphia Phillies
Baltimore OriolesUnknown starter vs. Brandon Young
Info onlyWaiting for complete actionable model inputsSchedule-only inputs; starters and lineups are still TBD
MoneylinePhiladelphia Phillies -103
- Model probability
- 50.4%
- Market probability
- 48.1%
- Implied edge
- +2.3%
- Expected profit
- −$0.01 per $1
Info onlyWaiting for both confirmed lineups
Model and sizing details
FanGraphs 43.9% · kalshi · Standalone full Kelly 0.0% ($0). Paper policy applies a reduced Kelly multiplier and stake cap. No wager is placed.
TotalUnder 4.5 +625
- Model probability
- 18.9%
- Market probability
- 13.5%
- Implied edge
- +5.5%
- Expected profit
- +$0.37 per $1
Info onlyWaiting for complete actionable model inputs
Model and sizing details
Model total 8.4 vs. line 8.5 (−0.1) · kalshi · kalshi · Standalone full Kelly 6.0% ($597). This is the ladder edge leader. The highest EV, standalone Kelly, and joint portfolio choices may be different lines. No wager is placed.
Live lineupsLoading…
Pitcher matchupPitch-mix comparison is incomplete
Unknown starterUnavailable
No fresh mapped Statcast pitch profile.
Brandon YoungThrough Jul 25
- Fastball
- 74%
- Breaking
- 26%
- Offspeed
- 0%
- Other
- 0%
Mix diversity 41%
Research modelAwaiting a research forecast
The earlier-market residual model starts from an earlier no-vig moneyline and tests whether baseball features can improve that market baseline. Historical evaluation has not beaten the market, so this is tracked only for future evidence. It never authorizes or sizes a live or paper bet.
The next successful research run will populate this section.St. Louis CardinalsatToronto Blue Jays
Kyle Leahy vs. Dylan Cease
Best current leanOver 7.5 -103Waiting for complete actionable model inputsImplied edge+11.5%Probable startersInfo only
St. Louis CardinalsatToronto Blue Jays
St. Louis Cardinals
Toronto Blue JaysKyle Leahy vs. Dylan Cease
Info onlyWaiting for complete actionable model inputsProbable starters are available; betting waits for both confirmed lineups
MoneylineSt. Louis Cardinals +152
- Model probability
- 45.4%
- Market probability
- 38.0%
- Implied edge
- +7.4%
- Expected profit
- +$0.14 per $1
Info onlyWaiting for both confirmed lineups
Model and sizing details
FanGraphs 36.4% · kalshi · Standalone full Kelly 9.5% ($948). Paper policy applies a reduced Kelly multiplier and stake cap. No wager is placed.
TotalOver 7.5 -103
- Model probability
- 61.0%
- Market probability
- 49.5%
- Implied edge
- +11.5%
- Expected profit
- +$0.20 per $1
Info onlyWaiting for complete actionable model inputs
Model and sizing details
Model total 8.8 vs. line 8.5 (+0.3) · kalshi · polymarket · Standalone full Kelly 20.8% ($2,077). This is the ladder edge leader. The highest EV, standalone Kelly, and joint portfolio choices may be different lines. No wager is placed.
Live lineupsLoading…
Pitcher matchupDylan Cease uses fastball pitches 8 pts more often
Kyle LeahyThrough Jul 26
- Fastball
- 37%
- Breaking
- 47%
- Offspeed
- 15%
- Other
- 0%
Mix diversity 73%
Dylan CeaseThrough Jul 25
- Fastball
- 46%
- Breaking
- 41%
- Offspeed
- 14%
- Other
- 0%
Mix diversity 71%
Research modelAwaiting a research forecast
The earlier-market residual model starts from an earlier no-vig moneyline and tests whether baseball features can improve that market baseline. Historical evaluation has not beaten the market, so this is tracked only for future evidence. It never authorizes or sizes a live or paper bet.
The next successful research run will populate this section.Chicago White SoxatTampa Bay Rays
Erick Fedde vs. Nick Martinez
Best current leanOver 9.5 +165Waiting for complete actionable model inputsImplied edge+4.6%Probable startersInfo only
Chicago White SoxatTampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay RaysErick Fedde vs. Nick Martinez
Info onlyWaiting for complete actionable model inputsProbable starters are available; betting waits for both confirmed lineups
MoneylineChicago White Sox +124
- Model probability
- 44.1%
- Market probability
- 42.8%
- Implied edge
- +1.3%
- Expected profit
- −$0.01 per $1
Info onlyWaiting for both confirmed lineups
Model and sizing details
FanGraphs 38.3% · kalshi · Standalone full Kelly 0.0% ($0). Paper policy applies a reduced Kelly multiplier and stake cap. No wager is placed.
TotalOver 9.5 +165
- Model probability
- 41.5%
- Market probability
- 36.9%
- Implied edge
- +4.6%
- Expected profit
- +$0.10 per $1
Info onlyWaiting for complete actionable model inputs
Model and sizing details
Model total 8.5 vs. line 8.5 (+0.0) · kalshi · polymarket · Standalone full Kelly 6.1% ($610). This is the ladder edge leader. The highest EV, standalone Kelly, and joint portfolio choices may be different lines. No wager is placed.
Live lineupsLoading…
Pitcher matchupErick Fedde uses breaking pitches 27 pts more often
Erick FeddeThrough Jul 26
- Fastball
- 54%
- Breaking
- 33%
- Offspeed
- 6%
- Other
- 6%
Mix diversity 61%
Nick MartinezThrough Jul 25
- Fastball
- 69%
- Breaking
- 6%
- Offspeed
- 25%
- Other
- 0%
Mix diversity 55%
Research modelAwaiting a research forecast
The earlier-market residual model starts from an earlier no-vig moneyline and tests whether baseball features can improve that market baseline. Historical evaluation has not beaten the market, so this is tracked only for future evidence. It never authorizes or sizes a live or paper bet.
The next successful research run will populate this section.Arizona DiamondbacksatCleveland Guardians
Mitch Bratt vs. Tanner Bibee
Best current leanUnder 4.5 +625Waiting for complete actionable model inputsImplied edge+5.5%EarlyInfo only
Arizona DiamondbacksatCleveland Guardians
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cleveland GuardiansMitch Bratt vs. Tanner Bibee
Info onlyWaiting for complete actionable model inputsSchedule-only inputs; starters and lineups are still TBD
MoneylineArizona Diamondbacks +119
- Model probability
- 46.7%
- Market probability
- 43.8%
- Implied edge
- +2.9%
- Expected profit
- +$0.02 per $1
Info onlyWaiting for both confirmed lineups
Model and sizing details
FanGraphs 47.2% · kalshi · Standalone full Kelly 1.9% ($191). Paper policy applies a reduced Kelly multiplier and stake cap. No wager is placed.
TotalUnder 4.5 +625
- Model probability
- 19.0%
- Market probability
- 13.5%
- Implied edge
- +5.5%
- Expected profit
- +$0.38 per $1
Info onlyWaiting for complete actionable model inputs
Model and sizing details
Model total 8.4 vs. line 9.5 (−1.1) · kalshi · kalshi · Standalone full Kelly 6.0% ($604). This is the ladder edge leader. The highest EV, standalone Kelly, and joint portfolio choices may be different lines. No wager is placed.
Live lineupsLoading…
Pitcher matchupPitch-mix comparison is incomplete
Mitch BrattUnavailable
No fresh mapped Statcast pitch profile.
Tanner BibeeThrough Jul 25
- Fastball
- 69%
- Breaking
- 21%
- Offspeed
- 10%
- Other
- 0%
Mix diversity 56%
Research modelAwaiting a research forecast
The earlier-market residual model starts from an earlier no-vig moneyline and tests whether baseball features can improve that market baseline. Historical evaluation has not beaten the market, so this is tracked only for future evidence. It never authorizes or sizes a live or paper bet.
The next successful research run will populate this section.Miami MarlinsatNew York Mets
Janson Junk vs. Freddy Peralta
Best current leanUnder 4.5 +574Waiting for complete actionable model inputsImplied edge+8.8%Probable startersInfo only
Miami MarlinsatNew York Mets
Janson Junk vs. Freddy Peralta
Info onlyWaiting for complete actionable model inputsProbable starters are available; betting waits for both confirmed lineups
MoneylineMiami Marlins +105
- Model probability
- 49.9%
- Market probability
- 46.2%
- Implied edge
- +3.7%
- Expected profit
- +$0.02 per $1
Info onlyWaiting for both confirmed lineups
Model and sizing details
FanGraphs 39.1% · kalshi · Standalone full Kelly 2.2% ($219). Paper policy applies a reduced Kelly multiplier and stake cap. No wager is placed.
TotalUnder 4.5 +574
- Model probability
- 23.2%
- Market probability
- 14.5%
- Implied edge
- +8.8%
- Expected profit
- +$0.57 per $1
Info onlyWaiting for complete actionable model inputs
Model and sizing details
Model total 7.8 vs. line 8.5 (−0.7) · kalshi · kalshi · Standalone full Kelly 9.9% ($987). This is the ladder edge leader. The highest EV, standalone Kelly, and joint portfolio choices may be different lines. No wager is placed.
Live lineupsLoading…
Pitcher matchupJanson Junk uses breaking pitches 2 pts more often
Janson JunkThrough Jul 26
- Fastball
- 54%
- Breaking
- 32%
- Offspeed
- 14%
- Other
- 0%
Mix diversity 69%
Freddy PeraltaThrough Jul 26
- Fastball
- 55%
- Breaking
- 30%
- Offspeed
- 14%
- Other
- 1%
Mix diversity 68%
Research modelAwaiting a research forecast
The earlier-market residual model starts from an earlier no-vig moneyline and tests whether baseball features can improve that market baseline. Historical evaluation has not beaten the market, so this is tracked only for future evidence. It never authorizes or sizes a live or paper bet.
The next successful research run will populate this section.Washington NationalsatAtlanta Braves
Foster Griffin vs. Bryce Elder
Best current leanUnder 2.5 +3021Waiting for complete actionable model inputsImplied edge+3.6%Probable startersInfo only
Washington NationalsatAtlanta Braves
Foster Griffin vs. Bryce Elder
Info onlyWaiting for complete actionable model inputsProbable starters are available; betting waits for both confirmed lineups
MoneylineAtlanta Braves -121
- Model probability
- 53.9%
- Market probability
- 52.4%
- Implied edge
- +1.5%
- Expected profit
- −$0.02 per $1
Info onlyWaiting for both confirmed lineups
Model and sizing details
FanGraphs 58.0% · kalshi · Standalone full Kelly 0.0% ($0). Paper policy applies a reduced Kelly multiplier and stake cap. No wager is placed.
TotalUnder 2.5 +3021
- Model probability
- 6.8%
- Market probability
- 3.1%
- Implied edge
- +3.6%
- Expected profit
- +$1.11 per $1
Info onlyWaiting for complete actionable model inputs
Model and sizing details
Model total 9.2 vs. line 7.5 (+1.7) · kalshi · kalshi · Standalone full Kelly 3.7% ($369). This is the ladder edge leader. The highest EV, standalone Kelly, and joint portfolio choices may be different lines. No wager is placed.
Live lineupsLoading…
Pitcher matchupBryce Elder uses fastball pitches 9 pts more often
Foster GriffinThrough Jul 25
- Fastball
- 64%
- Breaking
- 23%
- Offspeed
- 12%
- Other
- 1%
Mix diversity 62%
Bryce ElderThrough Jul 25
- Fastball
- 74%
- Breaking
- 19%
- Offspeed
- 7%
- Other
- 0%
Mix diversity 51%
Research modelAwaiting a research forecast
The earlier-market residual model starts from an earlier no-vig moneyline and tests whether baseball features can improve that market baseline. Historical evaluation has not beaten the market, so this is tracked only for future evidence. It never authorizes or sizes a live or paper bet.
The next successful research run will populate this section.Schedule
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