Baseball · Game notebook · 2026-10-03
New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays
01 · Forecast
What did we believe?
No current actionable forecast is substituted for this game. The recorded checkpoints below are the historical evidence.
Moneyline · 4 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
New York Yankees · 46.7%+116 at the-odds-api · recorded edge +0.4%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
New York Yankees · 45.8%+116 at the-odds-api · recorded edge -0.5%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 6.5 · 3 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 6.5 · 49.3%+109 at polymarket · recorded edge +1.5%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 6.5 · 49.1%+119 at polymarket · recorded edge +3.4%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
02 · Why
Connect the forecast to the baseball
Recorded first look · schedule-only
Tree contributions are raw log-odds toward the home team (+) or away team (−), before calibration. They are not probability points or proof of causation.
| Baseball input | Recorded value | Contribution |
|---|---|---|
Matchup edge: expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowedThe home team's expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.04999066215487824 | -0.0390 |
Matchup edge: start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoffThe home team's start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoff minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 3.5 | +0.0308 |
Matchup edge: runs allowed per game this seasonThe home team's runs allowed per game this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 0.3129591759448611 | -0.0284 |
Matchup edge: season run differentialThe home team's season run differential minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.4139210785427554 | -0.0225 |
Matchup edge: batters the starter has faced this season (evidence weight)The home team's batters the starter has faced this season (evidence weight) minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 669 | +0.0184 |
Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better)The home team's the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better) minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | Not retained | -0.0167 |
Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year wRC+The home team's the lineup's prior-year wRC+ minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | Not retained | +0.0120 |
Matchup edge: wins above replacement pace per plate appearanceThe home team's wins above replacement pace per plate appearance minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | Not retained | -0.0116 |
Recorded input excerpt (16 values)
- Matchup edge: expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed
- -0.04999066215487824
- Matchup edge: start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoff
- 3.5
- Matchup edge: runs allowed per game this season
- 0.3129591759448611
- Matchup edge: season run differential
- -0.4139210785427554
- Matchup edge: batters the starter has faced this season (evidence weight)
- 669
- Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better)
- Missing / not retained
- Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year wRC+
- Missing / not retained
- Matchup edge: wins above replacement pace per plate appearance
- Missing / not retained
- Combined level: bulk-relief outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 6
- Combined level: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 24
- Matchup edge: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 2
- Combined level: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers
- 0.2982253086419753
- Matchup edge: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers
- 0.0285493827160494
- Combined level: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days
- 4.189583333333333
- Matchup edge: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days
- -0.9541666666666662
- Combined level: bullpen fatigue risk
- 4.448842592592593
This bounded excerpt is not the complete feature vector. Null values are not assumed to be zero.
Recorded latest pregame · probable-starter
Tree contributions are raw log-odds toward the home team (+) or away team (−), before calibration. They are not probability points or proof of causation.
| Baseball input | Recorded value | Contribution |
|---|---|---|
Matchup edge: expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowedThe home team's expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.04999066215487824 | -0.0414 |
Matchup edge: start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoffThe home team's start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoff minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 3.5 | +0.0361 |
Matchup edge: season run differentialThe home team's season run differential minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.4139210785427554 | -0.0252 |
Matchup edge: runs allowed per game this seasonThe home team's runs allowed per game this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 0.3129591759448611 | -0.0227 |
Matchup edge: the starter's season-to-date xFIP (lower is better)The home team's the starter's season-to-date xFIP (lower is better) minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.4579101156610732 | +0.0190 |
Matchup edge: batters the starter has faced this season (evidence weight)The home team's batters the starter has faced this season (evidence weight) minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 150 | +0.0184 |
Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better)The home team's the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better) minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | Not retained | -0.0167 |
Matchup edge: the starter's season-to-date strikeout-minus-walk rateThe home team's the starter's season-to-date strikeout-minus-walk rate minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 0.008018180000000014 | +0.0149 |
Recorded input excerpt (16 values)
- Matchup edge: expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed
- -0.04999066215487824
- Matchup edge: start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoff
- 3.5
- Matchup edge: season run differential
- -0.4139210785427554
- Matchup edge: runs allowed per game this season
- 0.3129591759448611
- Matchup edge: the starter's season-to-date xFIP (lower is better)
- -0.4579101156610732
- Matchup edge: batters the starter has faced this season (evidence weight)
- 150
- Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better)
- Missing / not retained
- Matchup edge: the starter's season-to-date strikeout-minus-walk rate
- 0.008018180000000014
- Combined level: bulk-relief outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 6
- Combined level: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 24
- Matchup edge: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 2
- Combined level: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers
- 0.2982253086419753
- Matchup edge: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers
- 0.0285493827160494
- Combined level: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days
- 4.189583333333333
- Matchup edge: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days
- -0.9541666666666662
- Combined level: bullpen fatigue risk
- 4.448842592592593
This bounded excerpt is not the complete feature vector. Null values are not assumed to be zero.
Tabular model explanation
No game-specific tabular explanation was retained.
Eye-test prompt: which recorded input fits what you saw, and which would you question? A single win or loss cannot establish that the reasoning was right.
03 · Movement
What changed?
Recorded moneyline prices
Prices move at a fixed selection; a change in a totals line is a different contract. Collection runs independently of opening this notebook.
Latest available books and main / alternate totals
Current board coverage may no longer include completed games. An empty board is not proof that no historical quotes were collected.
Model snapshots
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 47 snapshots · -0.9% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 47 snapshots · -0.2% change
From to
04 · Review
Price quality and result are separate questions
No settled score recorded yet.
| Market | Latest pregame selection | Forecast | Outcome | Recorded CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total 6.5 | Under 6.5 | 49.1% | Pending | -2.2% |
| Moneyline | New York Yankees | 45.8% | Pending | +0.0% |
Recorded CLV compares the first and latest eligible pregame implied probabilities under the existing history policy. It is not a verified sportsbook closing tick. Missing or changed-selection comparisons stay unavailable.
A good price can lose; a poor forecast can win. Use forecast quality and matched model cohorts to judge repeated performance.
Technical details
- Forecast captured
- Moneyline captured
- Total market captured
- Score last fetched
- Unavailable
The score source does not supply a per-game update timestamp; fetch time records when this score feed was retrieved, not when the score changed.
Model − market is a descriptive runs difference using the recorded total from within 30 minutes before this pregame forecast. It does not establish a qualifying paper bet.
Model input coverage
This record does not contain per-game input coverage. Availability cannot be inferred from the displayed probabilities.