Baseball · Game notebook · 2026-09-30
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
01 · Forecast
What did we believe?
No current actionable forecast is substituted for this game. The recorded checkpoints below are the historical evidence.
Moneyline · 6 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
New York Yankees · 54.5%-107 at polymarket · recorded edge +2.8%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Boston Red Sox · 44.8%+119 at polymarket · recorded edge -0.9%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 6.5 · 4 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 6.5 · 49.0%+114 at polymarket · recorded edge +2.3%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 6.5 · 48.9%+109 at polymarket · recorded edge +1.1%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 5.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 5.5 · 70.7%-175 at polymarket · recorded edge +6.6%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 5.5 · 70.7%-175 at kalshi · recorded edge +7.1%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 4.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 4.5 · 81.7%-340 at kalshi · recorded edge +4.4%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 4.5 · 18.3%+266 at kalshi · recorded edge -9.0%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 3.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 3.5 · 12.2%+456 at kalshi · recorded edge -5.7%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 3.5 · 87.8%-564 at kalshi · recorded edge +2.8%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 7.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 7.5 · 50.4%+146 at polymarket · recorded edge +9.3%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 7.5 · 49.6%-161 at polymarket · recorded edge -12.6%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 10.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 10.5 · 26.5%+425 at kalshi · recorded edge +7.4%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 10.5 · 73.5%-525 at kalshi · recorded edge -10.5%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 9.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 9.5 · 32.8%+296 at kalshi · recorded edge +7.5%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 9.5 · 67.2%-360 at kalshi · recorded edge -11.0%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 8.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 8.5 · 42.5%+189 at kalshi · recorded edge +7.9%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 8.5 · 57.5%-228 at kalshi · recorded edge -12.0%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
02 · Why
Connect the forecast to the baseball
Recorded first look · probable-starter
Tree contributions are raw log-odds toward the home team (+) or away team (−), before calibration. They are not probability points or proof of causation.
| Baseball input | Recorded value | Contribution |
|---|---|---|
Matchup edge: season run differentialThe home team's season run differential minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 0.37566137566137564 | +0.0408 |
Matchup edge: expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowedThe home team's expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 0.04211951054776886 | +0.0393 |
Matchup edge: manager career winning percentageThe home team's manager career winning percentage minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 0.046542844619767654 | +0.0306 |
Matchup edge: start-of-day playoff-race leverageThe home team's start-of-day playoff-race leverage minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.06146806741987865 | -0.0306 |
Matchup edge: start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoffThe home team's start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoff minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 6.5 | +0.0278 |
Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk rateThe home team's the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk rate minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.04418280999999999 | -0.0276 |
Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better)The home team's the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better) minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 0.3404229908373222 | -0.0257 |
Matchup edge: the starter's season-to-date strikeout-minus-walk rateThe home team's the starter's season-to-date strikeout-minus-walk rate minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 0.0127892 | +0.0149 |
Recorded input excerpt (16 values)
- Matchup edge: season run differential
- 0.37566137566137564
- Matchup edge: expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed
- 0.04211951054776886
- Matchup edge: manager career winning percentage
- 0.046542844619767654
- Matchup edge: start-of-day playoff-race leverage
- -0.06146806741987865
- Matchup edge: start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoff
- 6.5
- Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk rate
- -0.04418280999999999
- Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better)
- 0.3404229908373222
- Matchup edge: the starter's season-to-date strikeout-minus-walk rate
- 0.0127892
- Combined level: bulk-relief outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 6
- Combined level: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 23
- Matchup edge: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 0
- Combined level: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers
- 0.2726571268237935
- Matchup edge: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers
- 0.022586980920314248
- Combined level: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days
- 2.946969696969697
- Matchup edge: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days
- 3.4393939393939386
- Combined level: bullpen fatigue risk
- 3.328956228956229
This bounded excerpt is not the complete feature vector. Null values are not assumed to be zero.
Recorded latest pregame · confirmed-lineup
Tree contributions are raw log-odds toward the home team (+) or away team (−), before calibration. They are not probability points or proof of causation.
| Baseball input | Recorded value | Contribution |
|---|---|---|
Matchup edge: expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowedThe home team's expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 0.05512490902264722 | +0.0520 |
Matchup edge: season run differentialThe home team's season run differential minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 0.4840945239718246 | +0.0408 |
Matchup edge: manager career winning percentageThe home team's manager career winning percentage minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 0.046542844619767654 | +0.0332 |
Matchup edge: start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoffThe home team's start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoff minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 7.5 | +0.0316 |
Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year wRC+The home team's the lineup's prior-year wRC+ minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 6.9262063952144075 | +0.0282 |
Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk rateThe home team's the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk rate minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.04418280999999999 | -0.0282 |
Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better)The home team's the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better) minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 0.3404229908373222 | -0.0274 |
Matchup edge: batters the starter has faced this season (evidence weight)The home team's batters the starter has faced this season (evidence weight) minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -249 | -0.0252 |
Recorded input excerpt (16 values)
- Matchup edge: expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed
- 0.05512490902264722
- Matchup edge: season run differential
- 0.4840945239718246
- Matchup edge: manager career winning percentage
- 0.046542844619767654
- Matchup edge: start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoff
- 7.5
- Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year wRC+
- 6.9262063952144075
- Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk rate
- -0.04418280999999999
- Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better)
- 0.3404229908373222
- Matchup edge: batters the starter has faced this season (evidence weight)
- -249
- Combined level: bulk-relief outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 6
- Combined level: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 23
- Matchup edge: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 0
- Combined level: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers
- 0.2726571268237935
- Matchup edge: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers
- 0.022586980920314248
- Combined level: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days
- 2.946969696969697
- Matchup edge: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days
- 3.4393939393939386
- Combined level: bullpen fatigue risk
- 3.328956228956229
This bounded excerpt is not the complete feature vector. Null values are not assumed to be zero.
Tabular model explanation
No game-specific tabular explanation was retained.
Eye-test prompt: which recorded input fits what you saw, and which would you question? A single win or loss cannot establish that the reasoning was right.
03 · Movement
What changed?
Recorded moneyline prices
Prices move at a fixed selection; a change in a totals line is a different contract. Collection runs independently of opening this notebook.
Latest available books and main / alternate totals
Current board coverage may no longer include completed games. An empty board is not proof that no historical quotes were collected.
Model snapshots
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 38 snapshots · +0.1% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 20 snapshots · +0.0% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · +0.0% change
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retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 4 snapshots · +0.0% change
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retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · +0.0% change
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retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · +0.0% change
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retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · +0.0% change
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retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · +0.0% change
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retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · +0.0% change
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retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · +0.0% change
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retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · +0.0% change
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retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · +0.0% change
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retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · +0.0% change
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retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · +0.0% change
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retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · +0.0% change
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retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · +0.0% change
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retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 1 snapshots · +0.0% change
-From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 18 snapshots · +0.0% change
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04 · Review
Price quality and result are separate questions
No settled score recorded yet.
| Market | Latest pregame selection | Forecast | Outcome | Recorded CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Boston Red Sox | 44.8% | Pending | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 6.5 | Under 6.5 | 48.9% | Pending | +1.1% |
| Total 5.5 | Over 5.5 | 70.7% | Won | -0.5% |
| Total 4.5 | Under 4.5 | 18.3% | Lost | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 3.5 | Over 3.5 | 87.8% | Won | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 7.5 | Under 7.5 | 49.6% | Lost | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 10.5 | Under 10.5 | 73.5% | Lost | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 9.5 | Under 9.5 | 67.2% | Lost | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 8.5 | Under 8.5 | 57.5% | Lost | Unavailable / incomparable |
Recorded CLV compares the first and latest eligible pregame implied probabilities under the existing history policy. It is not a verified sportsbook closing tick. Missing or changed-selection comparisons stay unavailable.
A good price can lose; a poor forecast can win. Use forecast quality and matched model cohorts to judge repeated performance.
Technical details
- Forecast captured
- Moneyline captured
- Total market captured
- Score last fetched
- Unavailable
The score source does not supply a per-game update timestamp; fetch time records when this score feed was retrieved, not when the score changed.
Model − market is a descriptive runs difference using the recorded total from within 30 minutes before this pregame forecast. It does not establish a qualifying paper bet.
Model input coverage
This record does not contain per-game input coverage. Availability cannot be inferred from the displayed probabilities.