+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Baseball
Performance
One unified paper ledger per game, connecting the first model recommendation, the latest pregame decision, closing-line value, and the final result for both moneyline and totals. Every positive stake shown here is hypothetical; no wager is placed.
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat.
- Current bankroll
- $9,728
- Cumulative
- -2.7%
- Best day
- +0.9%
- Worst day
- -3.6%
- Settled bets
- 11
Cumulative bankroll return
Daily bankroll return
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
Each market/checkpoint strategy starts with $10,000 and compounds only recommendations that cleared the policy gate. Recommended Kelly is the published, capped sizing; full Kelly remains a benchmark. Paper stake, profit, and ROI come from settled decisions. No wagers are placed.
+$280 · +2.8%
- Bets
- 1
- Record
- 1-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 2.0%
Full Kelly benchmark $12,144 · tracked $280 on $200 settled paper stake · +140.0% ROI
-$49 · -0.5%
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 3-3
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 1.4%
Full Kelly benchmark $7,091 · tracked -$46 on $858 settled paper stake · -5.3% ROI
-$506 · -5.1%
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 3-5
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 1.4%
Full Kelly benchmark $4,399 · tracked -$512 on $1,127 settled paper stake · -45.5% ROI
Prospective paper experiment
5% vs. 7.5% vs. 10% edge
First confirmed-lineup pregame decision per game and market; fixed one-unit stake; positive EV required; latest comparable pregame price supplies CLV.
Frozen start · collecting · review after every arm has 50 CLV samples and 50 settled bets.
| Threshold | Candidates | CLV | Settled | W-L-P | Flat ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 14 | -0.2% n=12 | 7 | 3-4-0 | -5.1% |
| 7.5% | 5 | -0.3% n=4 | 4 | 1-3-0 | -51.6% |
| 10.0% | 3 | -0.5% n=3 | 2 | 1-1-0 | -3.3% |
Telegram Activity
Every alert decision, including silence
Projection history stays complete. This audit shows why each refresh sent an immediate message or was intentionally suppressed.
| Evaluated | Game | State | Telegram | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore OriolesPhiladelphia Phillies | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay RaysChicago White Sox | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue JaysSt. Louis Cardinals | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland GuardiansArizona Diamondbacks | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore OriolesPhiladelphia Phillies | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay RaysChicago White Sox | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue JaysSt. Louis Cardinals | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland GuardiansArizona Diamondbacks | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore OriolesPhiladelphia Phillies | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay RaysChicago White Sox | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue JaysSt. Louis Cardinals | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland GuardiansArizona Diamondbacks | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore OriolesPhiladelphia Phillies | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay RaysChicago White Sox | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue JaysSt. Louis Cardinals | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland GuardiansArizona Diamondbacks | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore OriolesPhiladelphia Phillies | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay RaysChicago White Sox | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue JaysSt. Louis Cardinals | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland GuardiansArizona Diamondbacks | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | INFO ONLY | Sent | Starter changed materially | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore OriolesPhiladelphia Phillies | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay RaysChicago White Sox | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue JaysSt. Louis Cardinals | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland GuardiansArizona Diamondbacks | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore OriolesPhiladelphia Phillies | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| New York Yankees at Chicago CubsNew York Yankees | WATCH | Quiet | 7.5–10% watchlist edge | |
| Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay RaysChicago White Sox | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue JaysSt. Louis Cardinals | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland GuardiansArizona Diamondbacks | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore OriolesPhiladelphia Phillies | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| New York Yankees at Chicago CubsNew York Yankees | WATCH | Quiet | 7.5–10% watchlist edge | |
| Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay RaysChicago White Sox | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue JaysSt. Louis Cardinals | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland GuardiansArizona Diamondbacks | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore OriolesPhiladelphia Phillies | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| New York Yankees at Chicago CubsNew York Yankees | WATCH | Quiet | 7.5–10% watchlist edge | |
| Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay RaysChicago White Sox | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue JaysSt. Louis Cardinals | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland GuardiansArizona Diamondbacks | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore OriolesPhiladelphia Phillies | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| New York Yankees at Chicago CubsNew York Yankees | WATCH | Quiet | 7.5–10% watchlist edge | |
| Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay RaysChicago White Sox | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue JaysSt. Louis Cardinals | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland GuardiansArizona Diamondbacks | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore OriolesPhiladelphia Phillies | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| New York Yankees at Chicago CubsNew York Yankees | WATCH | Quiet | 7.5–10% watchlist edge | |
| Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay RaysChicago White Sox | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue JaysSt. Louis Cardinals | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland GuardiansArizona Diamondbacks | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore OriolesPhiladelphia Phillies | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| New York Yankees at Chicago CubsNew York Yankees | WATCH | Quiet | 7.5–10% watchlist edge | |
| Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay RaysChicago White Sox | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue JaysSt. Louis Cardinals | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland GuardiansArizona Diamondbacks | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore OriolesPhiladelphia Phillies | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| New York Yankees at Chicago CubsNew York Yankees | WATCH | Quiet | 7.5–10% watchlist edge | |
| Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay RaysChicago White Sox | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue JaysSt. Louis Cardinals | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland GuardiansArizona Diamondbacks | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Miami Marlins at New York MetsMiami Marlins | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore OriolesPhiladelphia Phillies | INFO ONLY | Quiet | Waiting for confirmed lineups | |
| New York Yankees at Chicago CubsNew York Yankees | WATCH | Quiet | 7.5–10% watchlist edge |
Game Performance
First look vs. latest pregame
67 games unified from 5000 stored model snapshots for the current window.
Games67
Settled50
First edge+4.8%
Pregame edge+5.0%
Average CLV-0.2%
Totals CLV-0.2%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66ncff2b1Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals +109Model 46.4% · Market 45.8%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAtlanta Braves -121Model 53.9% · Market 52.4%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+109 → -121 | -1 model points |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66ncff2b1Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -175Model 63.8% · Market 61.0%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -183Model 64.8% · Market 62.0%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%-175 → -183Logit 0.040 | 82 model points |
| Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n5e8308Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.0% · Market 47.6%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 50.4% · Market 47.6%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+101 → +101Logit 0.000 | 82 model points |
| Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n5e8308Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago White Sox +124Model 43.7% · Market 42.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago White Sox +124Model 44.1% · Market 42.8%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+124 → +124Logit 0.000 | 82 model points |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n859703Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassArizona Diamondbacks +109Model 46.6% · Market 45.8%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassArizona Diamondbacks +119Model 46.7% · Market 43.8%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%+109 → +119Logit -0.081 | 82 model points |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n859703Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -161Model 58.7% · Market 58.6%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -161Model 59.3% · Market 59.1%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.5%-161 → -161Logit 0.021 | 26 model points |
| Miami Marlins at New York Metsevt_129ymh66na0b79cStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -116Model 56.3% · Market 51.4%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 51.5% · Market 49.5%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%-116 → -107Logit -0.079 | 82 model points |
| Miami Marlins at New York Metsevt_129ymh66na0b79cStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMiami Marlins +109Model 50.0% · Market 45.8%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins +101Model 53.1% · Market 47.6%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.9%+109 → +101Logit 0.074 | 82 model points |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n77a74dStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 55.0% · Market 44.7%Edge +10.3% · Full Kelly 15.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +134Model 52.2% · Market 40.9%Edge +11.3% · Full Kelly 16.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.8%+114 → +134Logit -0.154 | 82 model points |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n77a74dStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +146Model 46.0% · Market 39.0%Edge +7.0% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +152Model 45.4% · Market 37.7%Edge +7.7% · Full Kelly 9.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.3%+146 → +152Logit -0.055 | 82 model points |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n2a2464Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -137Model 54.8% · Market 54.2%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 50.4% · Market 48.6%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → -103 | 37 model points |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n2a2464Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassPhiladelphia Phillies -103Model 50.4% · Market 48.1%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassPhiladelphia Phillies -103Model 50.4% · Market 48.1%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-103 → -103Logit 0.000 | 82 model points |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n5f6bf9Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds +105Model 51.1% · Market 46.2%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +105Model 53.4% · Market 46.7%Edge +6.7% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.4%+105 → +105Logit 0.017 | 82 model points |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n5f6bf9Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +124Model 54.8% · Market 42.8%Edge +12.0% · Full Kelly 18.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +119Model 48.2% · Market 43.8%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+124 → +119Logit 0.040 | 82 model points |
| New York Yankees at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n575397Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -175Model 61.8% · Market 61.0%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 37.5% · Market 35.2%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +173 | 59 model points |
| New York Yankees at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n575397Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Yankees +124Model 47.8% · Market 42.4%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 5.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Yankees +140Model 41.4% · Market 39.9%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.5%+124 → +140Logit -0.102 | 76 model points |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n282c5fStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Paper Kelly tracked | Won4-5Paper stake $200 · P/L $80 | Paper betUnder 12.5 -251Model 78.9% · Market 68.8%Edge +10.1% · Full Kelly 25.9%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betUnder 12.5 -251Model 78.9% · Market 68.8%Edge +10.1% · Full Kelly 25.9%Policy Kelly 0.6% · $59 | +0.0%-251 → -251Logit 0.000 | -1 model points |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n282c5fStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassOver 9.5 -112Model 52.8% · Market 50.5%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 +105Model 55.3% · Market 46.7%Edge +8.6% · Full Kelly 12.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → +105 | 38 model points |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n282c5fStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassWashington Nationals +124Model 46.5% · Market 42.8%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals +134Model 43.3% · Market 40.9%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%+124 → +134Logit -0.076 | 15 model points |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n282c5fStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Paper Kelly tracked | Won4-5Paper stake $153 · P/L $121 | Paper betUnder 10.5 -126Model 63.9% · Market 53.9%Edge +10.1% · Full Kelly 18.5%Policy Kelly 1.5% · $153 | Paper betUnder 10.5 -126Model 63.9% · Market 53.9%Edge +10.1% · Full Kelly 18.5%Policy Kelly 1.5% · $153 | +0.0%-126 → -126Logit 0.000 | -1 model points |
| Washington Nationals at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n282c5fStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Paper Kelly tracked | Won4-5Paper stake $200 · P/L $59 | Paper betUnder 13.5 -340Model 84.7% · Market 74.6%Edge +10.1% · Full Kelly 32.8%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betUnder 13.5 -340Model 84.7% · Market 74.6%Edge +10.1% · Full Kelly 32.8%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%-340 → -340Logit 0.000 | -1 model points |
| Miami Marlins at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n09ca0aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassMiami Marlins +109Model 51.5% · Market 45.8%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 7.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins +105Model 52.3% · Market 46.7%Edge +5.6% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+109 → +105Logit 0.037 | 14 model points |
| Miami Marlins at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n09ca0aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Paper Kelly tracked | Lost2-4Paper stake $200 · P/L -$200 | Paper betOver 7.5 +119Model 55.5% · Market 44.7%Edge +10.8% · Full Kelly 18.1%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betOver 7.5 +114Model 55.5% · Market 45.1%Edge +10.3% · Full Kelly 16.5%Policy Kelly 1.6% · $165 | +0.5%+119 → +114Logit 0.020 | -1 model points |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n64cbdeStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassUnder 9.5 -112Model 52.7% · Market 50.5%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -103Model 49.7% · Market 48.6%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%-112 → -103Logit -0.079 | 102 model points |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n64cbdeStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassPittsburgh Pirates -116Model 51.6% · Market 51.4%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +101Model 49.4% · Market 47.6%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → +101 | 20 model points |
| Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n6875ecStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassChicago Cubs +101Model 48.2% · Market 47.6%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals -112Model 51.7% · Market 50.5%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → -112 | 43 model points |
| Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n6875ecStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 45.1% · Market 43.8%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +114Model 46.8% · Market 44.7%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+119 → +114Logit 0.038 | 76 model points |
| New York Yankees at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nd49630Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassNew York Yankees -107Model 51.0% · Market 49.5%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Yankees -103Model 50.5% · Market 48.6%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%-107 → -103Logit -0.035 | 15 model points |
| New York Yankees at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nd49630Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Paper Kelly tracked | Lost1-2Paper stake $164 · P/L pending | Paper betOver 5.5 -239Model 77.8% · Market 67.8%Edge +10.0% · Full Kelly 24.6%Policy Kelly 1.6% · $164 | PassOver 5.5 -239Model 77.8% · Market 67.8%Edge +10.0% · Full Kelly 24.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-239 → -239Logit 0.000 | -1 model points |
| New York Yankees at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nd49630Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassOver 10.5 +280Model 36.3% · Market 25.4%Edge +10.9% · Full Kelly 13.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +280Model 36.3% · Market 25.4%Edge +10.9% · Full Kelly 13.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+280 → +280Logit 0.000 | -1 model points |
| New York Yankees at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nd49630Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Paper Kelly tracked | Lost1-2Paper stake $166 · P/L pending | Paper betOver 9.5 +206Model 44.9% · Market 32.6%Edge +12.4% · Full Kelly 18.2%Policy Kelly 1.7% · $166 | Paper betOver 9.5 +206Model 44.9% · Market 32.1%Edge +12.8% · Full Kelly 18.2%Policy Kelly 1.3% · $126 | -0.5%+206 → +206Logit -0.023 | -1 model points |
| New York Yankees at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nd49630Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Paper Kelly tracked | Lost1-2Paper stake $50 · P/L pending | Paper betOver 7.5 +101Model 62.5% · Market 48.5%Edge +14.0% · Full Kelly 25.4%Policy Kelly 0.5% · $50 | Paper betOver 7.5 +105Model 62.5% · Market 47.6%Edge +14.9% · Full Kelly 26.8%Policy Kelly 1.8% · $176 | -0.9%+101 → +105Logit -0.038 | -1 model points |
| New York Yankees at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nd49630Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Paper Kelly tracked | Lost1-2Paper stake $43 · P/L -$43 | Paper betOver 8.5 +140Model 53.8% · Market 40.8%Edge +13.0% · Full Kelly 20.8%Policy Kelly 0.4% · $43 | PassOver 8.5 +140Model 53.8% · Market 41.3%Edge +12.5% · Full Kelly 20.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.5%+140 → +140Logit 0.019 | -1 model points |
| Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n6e8cdfStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 9.5 -107Model 50.6% · Market 49.5%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +114Model 48.2% · Market 44.7%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → +114 | 27 model points |
| Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n6e8cdfStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassKansas City Royals +119Model 46.8% · Market 43.8%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassKansas City Royals +114Model 47.0% · Market 44.7%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+119 → +114Logit 0.038 | 73 model points |
| Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n87180dStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassOver 6.5 -175Model 66.1% · Market 61.0%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 65.7% · Market 63.9%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.9%-175 → -199Logit 0.123 | 65 model points |
| Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n87180dStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassTampa Bay Rays -137Model 58.0% · Market 55.3%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTampa Bay Rays -175Model 62.6% · Market 61.0%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +5.7%-137 → -175Logit 0.235 | 45 model points |
| Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66ne00d86Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +101Model 50.5% · Market 47.6%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago Cubs -107Model 50.4% · Market 49.5%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → -107 | 23 model points |
| Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66ne00d86Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassOver 7.5 -126Model 55.6% · Market 53.3%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -116Model 54.9% · Market 51.4%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%-126 → -116Logit -0.077 | 23 model points |
| Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66naaa850Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-0 | PassOver 8.5 -112Model 57.7% · Market 50.5%Edge +7.1% · Full Kelly 10.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -131Model 57.7% · Market 54.2%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.7%-112 → -131Logit 0.148 | 22 model points |
| Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66naaa850Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Won4-0 | PassKansas City Royals +146Model 42.5% · Market 38.6%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassKansas City Royals +166Model 36.5% · Market 36.1%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.5%+146 → +166Logit -0.107 | 22 model points |
| Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66naaa850Starts | TotalOpening line 2.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-0 | PassUnder 2.5 +2243Model 6.3% · Market 4.2%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 2.5 +2243Model 6.3% · Market 4.2%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+2243 → +2243Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66ne3eb8eStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassChicago White Sox +124Model 46.7% · Market 42.8%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Yankees -148Model 57.8% · Market 57.2%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -148 | 22 model points |
| New York Yankees at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66ne3eb8eStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassOver 7.5 -107Model 63.7% · Market 49.5%Edge +14.2% · Full Kelly 24.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -103Model 61.7% · Market 48.6%Edge +13.2% · Full Kelly 22.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%-107 → -103Logit -0.035 | 22 model points |
| Atlanta Braves at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n5bea0dStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost1-0 | PassNew York Mets +134Model 47.1% · Market 40.9%Edge +6.2% · Full Kelly 7.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Mets +146Model 44.3% · Market 39.0%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%+134 → +146Logit -0.081 | 15 model points |
| Atlanta Braves at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n5bea0dStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-0 | PassOver 8.5 +146Model 48.5% · Market 39.0%Edge +9.5% · Full Kelly 13.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +146Model 46.8% · Market 39.0%Edge +7.8% · Full Kelly 10.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+146 → +146Logit 0.000 | 15 model points |
| Atlanta Braves at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n5bea0dStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 15.1% · Market 14.5%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 15.1% · Market 14.5%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+574 → +574Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n770d5dStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-1 | PassOver 10.5 +159Model 41.9% · Market 37.0%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +181Model 40.1% · Market 34.2%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%+159 → +181Logit -0.125 | 19 model points |
| Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n770d5dStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost6-1 | PassCincinnati Reds +114Model 46.9% · Market 44.7%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +119Model 47.5% · Market 43.8%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+114 → +119Logit -0.038 | 19 model points |
| Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66na0ba1fStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-3 | PassOver 9.5 +181Model 40.4% · Market 34.2%Edge +6.2% · Full Kelly 7.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +189Model 36.6% · Market 33.2%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+181 → +189Logit -0.042 | 17 model points |
| Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66na0ba1fStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Won0-3 | PassTampa Bay Rays -142Model 56.5% · Market 55.7%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTampa Bay Rays -148Model 57.9% · Market 57.2%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.5%-142 → -148Logit 0.063 | 17 model points |
| Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nd03090Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost1-3 | PassSan Diego Padres -148Model 61.4% · Market 56.6%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassColorado Rockies +152Model 40.0% · Market 38.0%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +152 | 4 model points |
| Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nd03090Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassUnder 8.5 -131Model 55.2% · Market 54.2%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -121Model 54.3% · Market 52.4%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.8%-131 → -121Logit -0.074 | 4 model points |
| Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n021d1eStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost3-16 | PassMilwaukee Brewers -126Model 53.7% · Market 52.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMilwaukee Brewers -112Model 54.0% · Market 50.5%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.3%-126 → -112Logit -0.092 | -1 model points |
| Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n021d1eStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-16 | PassOver 8.5 +124Model 47.2% · Market 42.8%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +119Model 47.4% · Market 43.4%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.6%+124 → +119Logit 0.023 | -1 model points |
| Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n6a5d97Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won10-9 | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 45.0% · Market 44.7%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +129Model 45.9% · Market 41.9%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.8%+114 → +129Logit -0.115 | 63 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n6a5d97Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Won10-9 | PassBaltimore Orioles +140Model 39.9% · Market 39.6%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBaltimore Orioles +159Model 39.8% · Market 37.0%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.5%+140 → +159Logit -0.107 | 72 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at New York Metsevt_129ymh66ne03ba0Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassNew York Mets -103Model 48.9% · Market 48.1%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Mets -107Model 55.3% · Market 49.5%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 7.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.4%-103 → -107Logit 0.054 | 73 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at New York Metsevt_129ymh66ne03ba0Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassUnder 8.5 -116Model 52.4% · Market 50.9%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 52.1% · Market 50.5%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.4%-116 → -112Logit -0.016 | 62 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66na76cd5Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassOver 10.5 +134Model 41.5% · Market 40.9%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +129Model 47.7% · Market 41.9%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 7.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+134 → +129Logit 0.039 | 62 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66na76cd5Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassWashington Nationals +101Model 54.6% · Market 47.2%Edge +7.4% · Full Kelly 9.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals +101Model 54.0% · Market 47.6%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 8.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.5%+101 → +101Logit 0.018 | 72 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n9a200dStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Paper Kelly tracked | Lost3-0Paper stake $136 · P/L pending | Paper betOver 9.5 +134Model 52.0% · Market 41.3%Edge +10.6% · Full Kelly 16.1%Policy Kelly 1.4% · $136 | Paper betOver 9.5 +140Model 52.0% · Market 41.3%Edge +10.7% · Full Kelly 17.6%Policy Kelly 1.8% · $177 | -0.1%+134 → +140Logit -0.002 | 18 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n9a200dStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Won3-0 | PassArizona Diamondbacks +114Model 47.0% · Market 44.7%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassArizona Diamondbacks +114Model 47.3% · Market 44.7%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+114 → +114Logit 0.000 | 70 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n9a200dStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Paper Kelly tracked | Lost3-0Paper stake $62 · P/L -$62 | Paper betOver 7.5 -154Model 69.0% · Market 58.7%Edge +10.2% · Full Kelly 21.2%Policy Kelly 0.6% · $62 | Paper betOver 7.5 -148Model 69.0% · Market 58.7%Edge +10.3% · Full Kelly 23.0%Policy Kelly 0.7% · $72 | -0.1%-154 → -148Logit -0.002 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n9a200dStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 58.0% · Market 47.6%Edge +10.3% · Full Kelly 16.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -116Model 60.7% · Market 51.4%Edge +9.3% · Full Kelly 15.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.8%+101 → -116Logit 0.152 | 61 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n42f611Starts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Won6-8Paper stake $200 · P/L pending | Paper betMiami Marlins +146Model 50.6% · Market 39.0%Edge +11.6% · Full Kelly 16.8%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betMiami Marlins +140Model 50.6% · Market 39.6%Edge +11.0% · Full Kelly 15.3%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.6%+146 → +140Logit 0.025 | 71 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n42f611Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-8 | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 45.6% · Market 44.7%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +134Model 47.2% · Market 40.9%Edge +6.2% · Full Kelly 7.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.8%+114 → +134Logit -0.154 | 58 decision snapshots |