Moneyline v16.0.0
-$446.4216-19 · 237 positive-Kelly bets · 202 pending
- Ending bankroll
- $9,553.58
- Settled risk
- $19,248.74
- Avg. full Kelly
- 4.9%
- All evaluations
- 406
- Zero Kelly
- 169
Baseball · Track record
Forecast quality
Start with the current forecasts below. To review a specific recommendation, its result, and the price movement, open the game ledger.
Current production system
Same games, same release, same information stage
Bundle 05ece7ec34f7. Tree, TabPFN and Blend are scored on identical completed games, including games without bets. Lower error is better.
confirmed-lineup
162 paired games · 2026-09-16–2026-10-02 · 0 settled observations missing an arm.
| Model | Brier | Log loss |
|---|---|---|
| Tree | 0.2385 | 0.6699 |
| TabPFN | 0.2317 | 0.6552 |
| Blend | 0.2347 | 0.6619 |
probable-starter
148 paired games · 2026-09-17–2026-10-02 · 0 settled observations missing an arm.
| Model | Brier | Log loss |
|---|---|---|
| Tree | 0.2395 | 0.6721 |
| TabPFN | 0.2316 | 0.6553 |
| Blend | 0.2338 | 0.6601 |
schedule-only
87 paired games · 2026-09-17–2026-10-02 · 0 settled observations missing an arm.
| Model | Brier | Log loss |
|---|---|---|
| Tree | 0.2409 | 0.6749 |
| TabPFN | 0.2333 | 0.6592 |
| Blend | 0.2356 | 0.6640 |
Uses the latest retained pregame observation per game, bundle and stage. These are descriptive scores; the formal frozen evaluation protocol controls promotion review. Require at least 1,000 paired games and 60 calendar days per stage, then assess uncertainty and calibration.
Historical component-version scores · unmatched cohorts
These descriptive scores can mix input/context releases with unchanged version labels and different game coverage. They are not evidence for the active bundle.
Historical component scores
Scores grouped by component version
Lower scores mean more accurate probabilities. The recorded policy drives the recommendations. These historical rows can cover different games, so a lower score alone does not establish a winner.
| Model | Brier | Log loss | Scored | Missed | Over time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TreeVersionretrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 | 0.241 | 0.675 | 398 | — | |
TabularVersionretrosheet-game-tabular-pfn-2026-v2-schedule | 0.240 | 0.674 | 201 | — | |
BlendVersionretrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0+retrosheet-game-tabular-pfn-2026-v2-schedule | 0.241 | 0.676 | 196 | — |
Previous model versions (9)
| Model | Brier | Log loss | Scored | Missed | Over time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TreeVersionretrosheet-game-odds2025-servable-2026-v15.0.0 | 0.227 | 0.647 | 30 | — | |
TabularVersionretrosheet-game-tabular-pfn-2026-v2-compact | 0.237 | 0.667 | 409 | — | |
TabularVersionretrosheet-game-tabular-pfn-2026-v2-probable | 0.239 | 0.670 | 394 | — | |
BlendVersionmoneyline-equal-confirmed-2026-v1 | 0.234 | 0.661 | 236 | — | |
BlendVersionretrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0+retrosheet-game-tabular-pfn-2026-v2-probable | 0.240 | 0.672 | 386 | — | |
BlendVersionretrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0+retrosheet-game-tabular-pfn-2026-v2-compact | 0.246 | 0.686 | 160 | — | |
BlendVersionretrosheet-game-odds2025-servable-2026-v15.0.0+retrosheet-game-tabular-pfn-2026-v2-probable | 0.229 | 0.650 | 22 | — | |
BlendVersionretrosheet-game-odds2025-servable-2026-v15.0.0+retrosheet-game-tabular-pfn-2026-v2-compact | 0.217 | 0.624 | 15 | — | |
BlendVersionretrosheet-game-odds2025-servable-2026-v15.0.0+retrosheet-game-tabular-pfn-2026-v2-schedule | 0.243 | 0.679 | 6 | — |
How to read these scores
- Brier score
- Lower is better. Mean squared probability error; 0 is perfect.
- Log loss
- Lower is better. Wrong, highly confident forecasts are penalized more heavily.
- Coverage
- “Missed” counts settled games where that arm produced no forecast.
Each version retains its own record. These scores include games without bets and do not measure betting profit.
Totals · run forecasts and calibration
Totals · Main line only
Evidence scorecard
One latest pregame observation per event and market. Portfolio alternates and schedule-only evidence are excluded.
Evaluated markets49
Settled, no push0
Model Brier—
Skill vs market—
Candidate side mix—
| Segment | Decisions | Settled | Win rate | Predicted | Calibration | Brier | vs market | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| side: over | 23 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| side: under | 26 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| line-family: half-run | 49 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| information-stage: confirmed-lineup | 26 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| information-stage: probable-starter | 11 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| information-stage: schedule-only | 12 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| classification: pass | 49 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Exact CLV is unavailable; linked price snapshots cover 49 markets, but the decision-history artifact does not yet contain an exact pregame close. Excluded rows: 27 legacy alternates, 170 evidence-only, and 0 ambiguous legacy rows.
Side-mix guardrail: collecting. It collects at least 100 main-line candidates and requires promotion review if either side exceeds 80.0%. This does not suppress paper decisions.
Totals · Alternate lines quarantined
Alternate-total promotion gate
Zero-stake t1h observations measure the raw ladder distribution. Alternate totals remain blocked from paper and real betting.
Promotionblocked
Unique games410/200
Settled decisions7101/500
Calibration error0.1 pp
Price snapshots7224/7224
| Gate | Status | Requirement |
|---|---|---|
| evidence volume | pass | 7101/500 settled non-push decisions across 410/200 unique games |
| segment coverage | collecting | Both sides, all three distance bands, all three odds bands, and every observed book require 100 settled non-push decisions |
| calibration | collecting | Overall and required-segment absolute calibration error must be at most 3 percentage points |
| brier skill vs market | collecting | Overall and required-segment Brier score must be no worse than the decision-time no-vig market probability |
| price snapshot coverage | pass | 7224/7224 evidence decisions link the exact selected-side decision price |
| closing line value | collecting | Exact same-book/market/line closes: 3540/3558 settled positive-edge observations; game-weighted no-vig CLV 0.01 pp. Quotes must be within 30 minutes of start. |
Evidence version: alternate-total-calibration-2026-v1. Passing every statistical check still requires a superseding review before alternate lines can receive a stake.
Information stages · schedule, starters, and lineups
Stored date × model results
Independent full-Kelly P&L over time
Each point rehydrates the daily settlement rows produced by the background sync. Pageviews filter and draw this compact series; they do not rescore games or rerun models. A line now ends on the last date that model actually produced a projection instead of being carried forward as a misleading flat line.
- Blend v15/v2last projection · 2026-08-29
- Blend v16/v2producing · 2026-10-01
- Tabular v2producing · 2026-10-01
- Tree v13.4.1producing · 2026-10-01
- Tree v14producing · 2026-10-01
- Tree v15last projection · 2026-08-29
- Tree v16producing · 2026-10-01
Same inputs · independent full Kelly
Models by game-knowledge stage
Each cohort uses one latest pregame observation per game at that knowledge stage. Every model independently chooses the moneyline or main-total side with the largest full-Kelly fraction at the exact recorded price, sized from the same $10,000 unit bank. Repeated hourly runs do not give a game extra weight.
- Coverage
- 11639 decisions · concrete input snapshots on 4158
- Concrete inputs since
- 2026-08-29T16:46:21.624Z
- Multi-arm forecasts since
- 2026-08-29T16:46:21.624Z
- Exact same-stage market pairs
- 3844 bound · 3844 scoreable · 7795 excluded
| Market / model | Knowledge stage | Games | Record | Full-Kelly bankroll | ROI | Brier | Market Brier | Δ Brier | Log loss | Market log loss | Δ log loss | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline · Tree v14Producing · 2026-08-30 → 2026-10-03 | Schedule only | 205131 settled | 49-82135 bets · 4 pending | -$2,323.77-$12,323.77 · 7.2% avg | -13.0% | 0.2438 | 0.2382 | +0.0056 | 0.6807 | 0.6688 | +0.0119 | 0.2% |
| Moneyline · Tree v14Producing · 2026-08-30 → 2026-10-03 | Pitchers known | 344216 settled | 82-134217 bets · 1 pending | -$18,593.32-$28,593.32 · 5.9% avg | -22.4% | 0.2421 | 0.2359 | +0.0061 | 0.6771 | 0.6642 | +0.0129 | 0.1% |
| Moneyline · Tree v14Producing · 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-01 | Lineups projected | 335200 settled | 77-123200 bets · 0 pending | -$11,813.46-$21,813.46 · 4.9% avg | -22.2% | 0.2399 | 0.2352 | +0.0047 | 0.6726 | 0.6626 | +0.0101 | -0.0% |
| Moneyline · Tree v14Producing · 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-01 | Lineups locked | 381219 settled | 84-135219 bets · 0 pending | -$15,928.57-$25,928.57 · 5.1% avg | -23.4% | 0.2388 | 0.2340 | +0.0048 | 0.6703 | 0.6603 | +0.0100 | 0.0% |
| Moneyline · Tree v16Producing · 2026-08-30 → 2026-10-03 | Schedule only | 202134 settled | 54-80138 bets · 4 pending | -$4,573.42-$14,573.42 · 7.0% avg | -15.6% | 0.2437 | 0.2384 | +0.0053 | 0.6804 | 0.6692 | +0.0113 | 0.3% |
| Moneyline · Tree v16Producing · 2026-08-30 → 2026-10-03 | Pitchers known | 344226 settled | 84-142228 bets · 2 pending | -$19,732.07-$29,732.07 · 6.1% avg | -21.7% | 0.2426 | 0.2359 | +0.0067 | 0.6782 | 0.6642 | +0.0141 | 0.1% |
| Moneyline · Tree v16Producing · 2026-08-30 → 2026-10-01 | Lineups projected | 329207 settled | 83-124207 bets · 0 pending | -$13,717.94-$23,717.94 · 5.3% avg | -21.7% | 0.2421 | 0.2363 | +0.0058 | 0.6771 | 0.6648 | +0.0123 | 0.1% |
| Moneyline · Tree v16Producing · 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-01 | Lineups locked | 372224 settled | 83-141224 bets · 0 pending | -$20,181.80-$30,181.80 · 5.4% avg | -24.8% | 0.2403 | 0.2339 | +0.0064 | 0.6734 | 0.6600 | +0.0133 | 0.0% |
| Moneyline · Tree v13.4.1Producing · 2026-08-30 → 2026-10-03 | Schedule only | 205150 settled | 60-90154 bets · 4 pending | -$8,766.83-$18,766.83 · 7.8% avg | -16.1% | 0.2455 | 0.2382 | +0.0073 | 0.6841 | 0.6688 | +0.0153 | 0.1% |
| Moneyline · Tree v13.4.1Producing · 2026-08-30 → 2026-10-03 | Pitchers known | 344243 settled | 92-151245 bets · 2 pending | -$31,885.00-$41,885.00 · 7.5% avg | -22.9% | 0.2446 | 0.2359 | +0.0087 | 0.6823 | 0.6642 | +0.0181 | 0.0% |
| Moneyline · Tree v13.4.1Producing · 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-01 | Lineups projected | 335227 settled | 83-144227 bets · 0 pending | -$28,199.58-$38,199.58 · 6.2% avg | -27.2% | 0.2430 | 0.2352 | +0.0078 | 0.6791 | 0.6626 | +0.0165 | 0.0% |
| Moneyline · Tree v13.4.1Producing · 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-01 | Lineups locked | 381261 settled | 89-172261 bets · 0 pending | -$34,786.77-$44,786.77 · 6.2% avg | -27.6% | 0.2423 | 0.2340 | +0.0083 | 0.6777 | 0.6603 | +0.0174 | -0.0% |
| Moneyline · Tree v15Historical · 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | Schedule only | 43 settled | 1-23 bets · 0 pending | $8,493.19-$1,506.81 · 7.2% avg | -69.9% | 0.2340 | 0.2135 | +0.0204 | 0.6609 | 0.6194 | +0.0415 | 0.4% |
| Moneyline · Tree v15Historical · 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | Pitchers known | 116 settled | 3-36 bets · 0 pending | $8,819.19-$1,180.81 · 4.8% avg | -40.8% | 0.2391 | 0.2324 | +0.0067 | 0.6710 | 0.6571 | +0.0139 | -1.1% |
| Moneyline · Tree v15Historical · 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-29 | Lineups projected | 62 settled | 1-12 bets · 0 pending | $9,445.33-$554.67 · 5.0% avg | -55.3% | 0.1785 | 0.1740 | +0.0044 | 0.5470 | 0.5373 | +0.0098 | 0.5% |
| Moneyline · Tree v15Historical · 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-29 | Lineups locked | 113 settled | 1-23 bets · 0 pending | $10,476.46+$476.46 · 8.5% avg | 18.8% | 0.2212 | 0.2216 | -0.0004 | 0.6335 | 0.6342 | -0.0007 | 0.0% |
| Moneyline · Tabular v2Producing · 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-01 | Lineups locked | 381222 settled | 98-124222 bets · 0 pending | $4,921.73-$5,078.27 · 4.5% avg | -5.1% | 0.2361 | 0.2340 | +0.0021 | 0.6644 | 0.6603 | +0.0042 | 0.0% |
| Moneyline · Tabular v2Producing · 2026-08-30 → 2026-10-03 | Pitchers known | 344221 settled | 97-124223 bets · 2 pending | -$13,001.30-$23,001.30 · 6.1% avg | -17.0% | 0.2404 | 0.2359 | +0.0045 | 0.6734 | 0.6642 | +0.0092 | 0.2% |
| Moneyline · Tabular v2Producing · 2026-08-29 → 2026-10-01 | Lineups projected | 335211 settled | 91-120211 bets · 0 pending | -$12,152.88-$22,152.88 · 5.9% avg | -17.7% | 0.2397 | 0.2352 | +0.0045 | 0.6719 | 0.6626 | +0.0093 | 0.1% |
| Moneyline · Tabular v2Producing · 2026-08-30 → 2026-10-03 | Schedule only | 205122 settled | 52-70125 bets · 3 pending | $8,478.40-$1,521.60 · 6.5% avg | -1.9% | 0.2404 | 0.2382 | +0.0021 | 0.6736 | 0.6688 | +0.0048 | 0.2% |
| Moneyline · Blend v1Producing · 2026-09-11 → 2026-10-01 | Lineups locked | 236131 settled | 49-82131 bets · 0 pending | $2,590.80-$7,409.20 · 4.6% avg | -12.3% | 0.2342 | 0.2313 | +0.0029 | 0.6608 | 0.6548 | +0.0060 | -0.0% |
| Moneyline · Blend v16/v2Historical · 2026-08-29 → 2026-09-10 | Lineups locked | 13677 settled | 27-5077 bets · 0 pending | $3,517.55-$6,482.45 · 4.0% avg | -21.1% | 0.2437 | 0.2384 | +0.0053 | 0.6801 | 0.6691 | +0.0110 | -0.0% |
| Moneyline · Blend v16/v2Producing · 2026-08-30 → 2026-10-03 | Pitchers known | 344210 settled | 87-123212 bets · 2 pending | -$17,218.72-$27,218.72 · 5.6% avg | -23.1% | 0.2408 | 0.2359 | +0.0049 | 0.6743 | 0.6642 | +0.0102 | 0.1% |
| Moneyline · Blend v16/v2Producing · 2026-08-30 → 2026-10-01 | Lineups projected | 329193 settled | 76-117193 bets · 0 pending | -$9,955.46-$19,955.46 · 5.4% avg | -19.3% | 0.2404 | 0.2363 | +0.0042 | 0.6735 | 0.6648 | +0.0087 | 0.1% |
| Moneyline · Blend v16/v2Producing · 2026-08-30 → 2026-10-03 | Schedule only | 202119 settled | 44-75123 bets · 4 pending | $5,823.12-$4,176.88 · 6.6% avg | -5.3% | 0.2415 | 0.2384 | +0.0031 | 0.6759 | 0.6692 | +0.0067 | 0.2% |
| Moneyline · Blend v15/v2Historical · 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-29 | Lineups locked | 114 settled | 2-24 bets · 0 pending | $10,541.06+$541.06 · 5.0% avg | 26.9% | 0.2189 | 0.2216 | -0.0027 | 0.6284 | 0.6342 | -0.0058 | 0.0% |
| Moneyline · Blend v15/v2Historical · 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | Pitchers known | 118 settled | 3-58 bets · 0 pending | $7,740.07-$2,259.93 · 7.5% avg | -37.5% | 0.2486 | 0.2324 | +0.0162 | 0.6906 | 0.6571 | +0.0335 | -0.3% |
| Moneyline · Blend v15/v2Historical · 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-29 | Lineups projected | 64 settled | 0-44 bets · 0 pending | $7,500.97-$2,499.03 · 6.2% avg | -100.0% | 0.2023 | 0.1740 | +0.0283 | 0.5968 | 0.5373 | +0.0595 | -0.3% |
| Moneyline · Blend v15/v2Historical · 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | Schedule only | 43 settled | 1-23 bets · 0 pending | $8,706.61-$1,293.39 · 6.8% avg | -63.7% | 0.2370 | 0.2135 | +0.0235 | 0.6670 | 0.6194 | +0.0477 | 0.1% |
| Total · Totals v16Producing · 2026-09-01 → 2026-10-03 | Schedule only | 7929 settled | 12-1731 bets · 2 pending | $7,412.98-$2,587.02 · 3.4% avg | -27.4% | 0.2496 | 0.2481 | +0.0015 | 0.6923 | 0.6892 | +0.0031 | 0.4% |
| Total · Totals v16Producing · 2026-09-01 → 2026-10-03 | Pitchers known | 322186 settled | 83-103188 bets · 2 pending | $9,669.19-$330.81 · 3.2% avg | -0.6% | 0.2507 | 0.2501 | +0.0006 | 0.6945 | 0.6933 | +0.0012 | 0.2% |
| Total · Totals v16Producing · 2026-09-01 → 2026-10-01 | Lineups projected | 307181 settled | 91-90181 bets · 0 pending | $14,873.24+$4,873.24 · 3.0% avg | 9.0% | 0.2505 | 0.2518 | -0.0013 | 0.6942 | 0.6967 | -0.0026 | 0.1% |
| Total · Totals v16Producing · 2026-09-01 → 2026-10-01 | Lineups locked | 349205 settled | 92-113205 bets · 0 pending | $5,065.34-$4,934.66 · 3.3% avg | -7.3% | 0.2501 | 0.2487 | +0.0014 | 0.6934 | 0.6906 | +0.0028 | 0.0% |
Low sample sizes are descriptive, not proof. Brier and log loss score the forecast itself; market scores use only the exact no-vig pair embedded in the same immutable model-input snapshot. Negative deltas favor the model. Analysis requires 200 settled games per cohort and the release gate remains 1000. CLV compares the selected side with the latest matching pregame quote available in retained history. Producing means the model emitted a forecast on the latest retained date for that market and knowledge-stage cohort; Historical means the series stopped earlier, not that its bankroll stayed flat.
Historical replay · development evidence
Retrospective · Stored pregame inputs
Historical v16 replay
This is deliberately separate from Live evaluation. It rebuilds archived request rows with the current date-aware feature artifacts, deduplicates to the latest pregame row at each information stage, and never counts as prospective evidence.
Modelretrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Settled rows294
Archive coverage2026-08-19 → 2026-08-30
Parity canarybounded-drift · 25 rows
Maximum drift0.009
| Information stage | Games | Brier | Log loss | Predicted home | Observed home |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All stages | 294 | 0.237 | 0.666 | 54.1% | 57.8% |
| Schedule only | 66 | 0.230 | 0.653 | 53.6% | 66.7% |
| Probable starter | 113 | 0.240 | 0.672 | 54.2% | 54.9% |
| Confirmed lineup | 115 | 0.237 | 0.668 | 54.3% | 55.7% |
1316 immutable run objects contained 24122 rows; 333 latest pregame stage rows were selected. 0 rows carried exact resolved vectors and 24122 were legacy request-only rows. Generated 2026-08-30T18:17:01.982Z.
Bounded-drift replay: mean error 0.001 and maximum error 0.009. These scores are useful for retrospective comparison but are not exact or prospective.
Paper strategies · staking and edge experiments
All positive-Kelly leans
Daily results by model
This counterfactual ignores the recommendation threshold and the candidate flag. It takes every latest-pregame projection whose full Kelly fraction is above zero, then compounds an independent $10,000.00 bankroll for each market/model version. It is a sizing diagnostic, not a record of placed bets or a joint portfolio simulation. Moneyline and totals can show different version numbers because they are independently trained heads inside the combined served artifact.
Moneyline v15.0.0
+$0.000-0 · 5 positive-Kelly bets · 5 pending
- Ending bankroll
- $10,000.00
- Settled risk
- $0.00
- Avg. full Kelly
- 5.8%
- All evaluations
- 13
- Zero Kelly
- 8
Moneyline
+$0.000-0 · 20 positive-Kelly bets · 20 pending
- Ending bankroll
- $10,000.00
- Settled risk
- $0.00
- Avg. full Kelly
- 17.9%
- All evaluations
- 22
- Zero Kelly
- 2
Totals v16.0.0
-$9,996.71593-683 · 1535 positive-Kelly bets · 259 pending
- Ending bankroll
- $3.29
- Settled risk
- $273,689.77
- Avg. full Kelly
- 7.7%
- All evaluations
- 3942
- Zero Kelly
- 2407
Totals v15.0.0
-$4,911.1715-23 · 47 positive-Kelly bets · 9 pending
- Ending bankroll
- $5,088.83
- Settled risk
- $11,639.13
- Avg. full Kelly
- 5.5%
- All evaluations
- 126
- Zero Kelly
- 79
| Date | Moneyline v16.0.0 | Moneyline v15.0.0 | Moneyline | Totals v16.0.0 | Totals v15.0.0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | — | — | +$0.000-0 · 11 bets · 19.3% avg Kelly$10,000.00 bankroll | — | — |
| 2026-07-10 | — | — | +$0.000-0 · 9 bets · 16.2% avg Kelly$10,000.00 bankroll | — | — |
| 2026-08-29 | -$1,270.710-1 · 3 bets · 6.3% avg Kelly$8,729.29 bankroll | +$0.000-0 · 5 bets · 5.8% avg Kelly$10,000.00 bankroll | — | +$1,744.083-3 · 8 bets · 9.6% avg Kelly$11,744.08 bankroll | -$4,911.1715-23 · 47 bets · 5.5% avg Kelly$5,088.83 bankroll |
| 2026-08-30 | +$0.000-0 · 8 bets · 7.4% avg Kelly$8,729.29 bankroll | — | — | -$9,797.3617-28 · 53 bets · 6.7% avg Kelly$1,946.72 bankroll | — |
| 2026-08-31 | +$0.000-0 · 8 bets · 1.8% avg Kelly$8,729.29 bankroll | — | — | -$140.7916-22 · 44 bets · 6.7% avg Kelly$1,805.93 bankroll | — |
| 2026-09-01 | +$0.000-0 · 11 bets · 5.0% avg Kelly$8,729.29 bankroll | — | — | +$7,909.5224-28 · 63 bets · 9.1% avg Kelly$9,715.45 bankroll | — |
| 2026-09-02 | +$0.000-0 · 13 bets · 4.2% avg Kelly$8,729.29 bankroll | — | — | +$16,432.2728-21 · 59 bets · 7.3% avg Kelly$26,147.72 bankroll | — |
| 2026-09-03 | -$833.060-1 · 7 bets · 6.9% avg Kelly$7,896.23 bankroll | — | — | -$19,032.539-20 · 32 bets · 6.8% avg Kelly$7,115.19 bankroll | — |
| 2026-09-04 | -$1,019.740-1 · 9 bets · 6.7% avg Kelly$6,876.49 bankroll | — | — | +$200.4521-24 · 56 bets · 4.9% avg Kelly$7,315.64 bankroll | — |
| 2026-09-05 | +$0.000-0 · 9 bets · 2.8% avg Kelly$6,876.49 bankroll | — | — | -$300.9521-18 · 46 bets · 5.8% avg Kelly$7,014.69 bankroll | — |
| 2026-09-06 | +$969.521-0 · 6 bets · 4.8% avg Kelly$7,846.01 bankroll | — | — | -$6,116.7117-42 · 67 bets · 9.2% avg Kelly$897.98 bankroll | — |
| 2026-09-07 | +$1,578.621-0 · 6 bets · 4.8% avg Kelly$9,424.62 bankroll | — | — | +$388.3115-16 · 36 bets · 6.2% avg Kelly$1,286.29 bankroll | — |
| 2026-09-08 | -$1,027.280-1 · 11 bets · 4.9% avg Kelly$8,397.34 bankroll | — | — | -$135.3115-22 · 60 bets · 6.0% avg Kelly$1,150.98 bankroll | — |
| 2026-09-09 | -$1,058.060-1 · 7 bets · 5.6% avg Kelly$7,339.27 bankroll | — | — | +$1,174.1119-21 · 54 bets · 3.4% avg Kelly$2,325.08 bankroll | — |
| 2026-09-10 | +$0.000-0 · 2 bets · 4.9% avg Kelly$7,339.27 bankroll | — | — | -$553.494-9 · 14 bets · 3.5% avg Kelly$1,771.60 bankroll | — |
| 2026-09-11 | -$638.361-2 · 7 bets · 4.0% avg Kelly$6,700.91 bankroll | — | — | +$227.5926-29 · 67 bets · 5.0% avg Kelly$1,999.19 bankroll | — |
| 2026-09-12 | +$0.000-0 · 8 bets · 3.5% avg Kelly$6,700.91 bankroll | — | — | +$3,579.1622-14 · 42 bets · 5.3% avg Kelly$5,578.35 bankroll | — |
| 2026-09-13 | +$0.000-0 · 4 bets · 4.5% avg Kelly$6,700.91 bankroll | — | — | -$4,398.2822-28 · 56 bets · 6.2% avg Kelly$1,180.07 bankroll | — |
| 2026-09-14 | +$0.000-0 · 6 bets · 4.6% avg Kelly$6,700.91 bankroll | — | — | +$191.0522-16 · 41 bets · 6.8% avg Kelly$1,371.13 bankroll | — |
| 2026-09-15 | +$0.000-0 · 10 bets · 5.5% avg Kelly$6,700.91 bankroll | — | — | -$1,080.9319-31 · 59 bets · 6.6% avg Kelly$290.20 bankroll | — |
| 2026-09-16 | +$0.000-0 · 7 bets · 3.4% avg Kelly$6,700.91 bankroll | — | — | +$508.5324-25 · 58 bets · 7.3% avg Kelly$798.72 bankroll | — |
| 2026-09-17 | +$0.000-0 · 4 bets · 3.1% avg Kelly$6,700.91 bankroll | — | — | +$435.5519-11 · 37 bets · 5.8% avg Kelly$1,234.27 bankroll | — |
| 2026-09-18 | +$0.000-0 · 10 bets · 3.6% avg Kelly$6,700.91 bankroll | — | — | +$162.3726-22 · 54 bets · 7.6% avg Kelly$1,396.64 bankroll | — |
| 2026-09-19 | +$1,187.093-1 · 8 bets · 4.8% avg Kelly$7,888.00 bankroll | — | — | -$220.7326-24 · 60 bets · 8.2% avg Kelly$1,175.91 bankroll | — |
| 2026-09-20 | -$336.092-3 · 11 bets · 3.3% avg Kelly$7,551.91 bankroll | — | — | -$1,092.6713-38 · 61 bets · 6.0% avg Kelly$83.25 bankroll | — |
| 2026-09-21 | +$0.000-0 · 1 bets · 9.4% avg Kelly$7,551.91 bankroll | — | — | -$3.405-6 · 13 bets · 7.2% avg Kelly$79.84 bankroll | — |
| 2026-09-22 | +$82.362-2 · 10 bets · 3.0% avg Kelly$7,634.28 bankroll | — | — | -$70.9326-27 · 66 bets · 12.3% avg Kelly$8.91 bankroll | — |
| 2026-09-23 | +$575.702-1 · 5 bets · 5.0% avg Kelly$8,209.97 bankroll | — | — | -$8.1725-40 · 72 bets · 12.9% avg Kelly$0.74 bankroll | — |
| 2026-09-24 | -$307.511-3 · 6 bets · 5.0% avg Kelly$7,902.46 bankroll | — | — | -$0.2218-17 · 45 bets · 11.1% avg Kelly$0.52 bankroll | — |
| 2026-09-25 | +$1,619.912-1 · 11 bets · 5.2% avg Kelly$9,522.38 bankroll | — | — | +$3.4431-20 · 59 bets · 9.6% avg Kelly$3.96 bankroll | — |
| 2026-09-26 | +$0.000-0 · 8 bets · 5.9% avg Kelly$9,522.38 bankroll | — | — | -$0.7319-20 · 49 bets · 9.1% avg Kelly$3.23 bankroll | — |
| 2026-09-27 | +$0.000-0 · 10 bets · 7.7% avg Kelly$9,522.38 bankroll | — | — | +$0.7626-27 · 65 bets · 9.4% avg Kelly$3.99 bankroll | — |
| 2026-09-29 | +$0.000-0 · 3 bets · 7.1% avg Kelly$9,522.38 bankroll | — | — | +$2.216-6 · 15 bets · 11.0% avg Kelly$6.21 bankroll | — |
| 2026-09-30 | -$568.060-1 · 3 bets · 4.6% avg Kelly$8,954.32 bankroll | — | — | -$0.788-5 · 17 bets · 8.0% avg Kelly$5.42 bankroll | — |
| 2026-10-01 | +$599.261-0 · 2 bets · 9.2% avg Kelly$9,553.58 bankroll | — | — | -$2.131-3 · 5 bets · 15.2% avg Kelly$3.29 bankroll | — |
| 2026-10-03 | +$0.000-0 · 3 bets · 8.0% avg Kelly$9,553.58 bankroll | — | — | +$0.000-0 · 2 bets · 5.4% avg Kelly$3.29 bankroll | — |
Prospective paper experiment
5% vs. 7.5% vs. 10% edge
First confirmed-lineup pregame decision per game and market; fixed one-unit stake; positive EV required; latest comparable pregame price supplies CLV.
Frozen start · collecting · review after every arm has 50 CLV samples and 50 settled bets.
| Threshold | Candidates | CLV | Settled | W-L-P | Flat ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 30 | -0.1% n=29 | 8 | 3-5-0 | -6.1% |
| 7.5% | 5 | -0.0% n=5 | 1 | 0-1-0 | -100.0% |
| 10.0% | 1 | +0.0% n=1 | 0 | 0-0-0 | - |