Baseball

01 · Forecast

What did we believe?

No current actionable forecast is substituted for this game. The recorded checkpoints below are the historical evidence.

Moneyline · 7 recorded snapshots

First look

Sep 16, 2026, 7:03 AM UTC · retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0

Houston Astros · 56.3%

-131 at kalshi · recorded edge -0.4%

No paper recommendation recorded

Quote observed Sep 16, 2026, 6:50 AM UTC.

Latest pregame

Sep 17, 2026, 11:02 PM UTC · retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0

Kansas City Royals · 43.0%

+124 at kalshi · recorded edge -1.6%

No paper recommendation recorded

Quote observed Sep 17, 2026, 10:50 PM UTC.

First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.

Total 8.5 · 4 recorded snapshots

First look

Sep 17, 2026, 1:01 AM UTC · retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0

Under 8.5 · 50.8%

-103 at polymarket · recorded edge +0.1%

No paper recommendation recorded

Quote observed Sep 17, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC.

Latest pregame

Sep 17, 2026, 11:02 PM UTC · retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0

Under 8.5 · 50.6%

+105 at polymarket · recorded edge +1.8%

No paper recommendation recorded

Quote observed Sep 17, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC.

First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.

Total 9.5 · 2 recorded snapshots

First look

Sep 17, 2026, 10:17 PM UTC · retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0

Under 9.5 · 60.5%

-142 at polymarket · recorded edge +1.3%

No paper recommendation recorded

Quote observed Sep 17, 2026, 10:15 PM UTC.

Latest pregame

Sep 17, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC · retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0

Over 9.5 · 39.5%

+129 at kalshi · recorded edge -4.1%

No paper recommendation recorded

Quote observed Sep 17, 2026, 10:35 PM UTC.

First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.

Total 10.5 · 2 recorded snapshots

First look

Sep 17, 2026, 10:17 PM UTC · retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0

Over 10.5 · 32.9%

+173 at polymarket · recorded edge -4.2%

No paper recommendation recorded

Quote observed Sep 17, 2026, 10:15 PM UTC.

Latest pregame

Sep 17, 2026, 10:32 PM UTC · retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0

Under 10.5 · 67.1%

-199 at kalshi · recorded edge +0.5%

No paper recommendation recorded

Quote observed Sep 17, 2026, 10:20 PM UTC.

First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.

Total 4.5 · 2 recorded snapshots

First look

Sep 17, 2026, 10:17 PM UTC · retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0

Under 4.5 · 14.5%

+625 at kalshi · recorded edge +0.7%

No paper recommendation recorded

Quote observed Sep 17, 2026, 10:05 PM UTC.

Latest pregame

Sep 17, 2026, 10:17 PM UTC · retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0

Over 4.5 · 85.5%

-788 at kalshi · recorded edge -3.3%

No paper recommendation recorded

Quote observed Sep 17, 2026, 10:05 PM UTC.

First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.

Total 3.5 · 2 recorded snapshots

First look

Sep 17, 2026, 10:17 PM UTC · retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0

Under 3.5 · 9.5%

+1074 at kalshi · recorded edge +1.0%

No paper recommendation recorded

Quote observed Sep 17, 2026, 10:05 PM UTC.

Latest pregame

Sep 17, 2026, 10:17 PM UTC · retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0

Over 3.5 · 90.5%

-1428 at kalshi · recorded edge -3.0%

No paper recommendation recorded

Quote observed Sep 17, 2026, 10:05 PM UTC.

First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.

Total 5.5 · 2 recorded snapshots

First look

Sep 17, 2026, 10:17 PM UTC · retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0

Over 5.5 · 75.9%

-430 at kalshi · recorded edge -5.2%

No paper recommendation recorded

Quote observed Sep 17, 2026, 10:05 PM UTC.

Latest pregame

Sep 17, 2026, 10:17 PM UTC · retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0

Under 5.5 · 24.1%

+351 at kalshi · recorded edge +1.9%

No paper recommendation recorded

Quote observed Sep 17, 2026, 10:05 PM UTC.

First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.

Total 7.5 · 2 recorded snapshots

First look

Sep 17, 2026, 10:17 PM UTC · retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0

Under 7.5 · 42.8%

+140 at kalshi · recorded edge +1.1%

No paper recommendation recorded

Quote observed Sep 17, 2026, 10:05 PM UTC.

Latest pregame

Sep 17, 2026, 10:17 PM UTC · retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0

Over 7.5 · 57.2%

-175 at kalshi · recorded edge -6.4%

No paper recommendation recorded

Quote observed Sep 17, 2026, 10:05 PM UTC.

First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.

Total 12.5 · 2 recorded snapshots

First look

Sep 17, 2026, 10:17 PM UTC · retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0

Under 12.5 · 80.0%

-381 at kalshi · recorded edge +0.7%

No paper recommendation recorded

Quote observed Sep 17, 2026, 10:05 PM UTC.

Latest pregame

Sep 17, 2026, 10:17 PM UTC · retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0

Over 12.5 · 20.0%

+313 at kalshi · recorded edge -4.2%

No paper recommendation recorded

Quote observed Sep 17, 2026, 10:05 PM UTC.

First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.

Total 13.5 · 2 recorded snapshots

First look

Sep 17, 2026, 10:17 PM UTC · retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0

Under 13.5 · 85.6%

-564 at kalshi · recorded edge +0.7%

No paper recommendation recorded

Quote observed Sep 17, 2026, 10:05 PM UTC.

Latest pregame

Sep 17, 2026, 10:17 PM UTC · retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0

Over 13.5 · 14.4%

+456 at kalshi · recorded edge -3.6%

No paper recommendation recorded

Quote observed Sep 17, 2026, 10:05 PM UTC.

First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.

Total 6.5 · 2 recorded snapshots

First look

Sep 17, 2026, 10:17 PM UTC · retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0

Under 6.5 · 31.6%

+240 at kalshi · recorded edge +2.2%

No paper recommendation recorded

Quote observed Sep 17, 2026, 10:05 PM UTC.

Latest pregame

Sep 17, 2026, 10:17 PM UTC · retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0

Over 6.5 · 68.4%

-290 at kalshi · recorded edge -6.0%

No paper recommendation recorded

Quote observed Sep 17, 2026, 10:05 PM UTC.

First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.

Total 11.5 · 2 recorded snapshots

First look

Sep 17, 2026, 10:17 PM UTC · retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0

Under 11.5 · 74.8%

-290 at kalshi · recorded edge +0.5%

No paper recommendation recorded

Quote observed Sep 17, 2026, 10:05 PM UTC.

Latest pregame

Sep 17, 2026, 10:17 PM UTC · retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0

Over 11.5 · 25.2%

+240 at kalshi · recorded edge -4.3%

No paper recommendation recorded

Quote observed Sep 17, 2026, 10:05 PM UTC.

First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.

02 · Why

Connect the forecast to the baseball

Recorded first look · schedule-only

Tree contributions are raw log-odds toward the home team (+) or away team (−), before calibration. They are not probability points or proof of causation.

Baseball input	Recorded value	Contribution
Matchup edge: season run differential The home team's season run differential minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse.	0.2733333333333334	+0.0393
Matchup edge: expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed The home team's expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse.	0.030642121793742982	+0.0377
Matchup edge: manager career winning percentage The home team's manager career winning percentage minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse.	0.07505362505362506	+0.0294
Matchup edge: start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoff The home team's start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoff minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse.	9	+0.0284
Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better) The home team's the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better) minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse.	Not retained	-0.0220
Matchup edge: wins above replacement pace per plate appearance The home team's wins above replacement pace per plate appearance minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse.	Not retained	-0.0156
Matchup edge: batters the starter has faced this season (evidence weight) The home team's batters the starter has faced this season (evidence weight) minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse.	-709	-0.0150
Matchup edge: wins above replacement this season The home team's wins above replacement this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse.	Not retained	-0.0102

Recorded input excerpt (16 values)

Matchup edge: season run differential: 0.2733333333333334
Matchup edge: expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed: 0.030642121793742982
Matchup edge: manager career winning percentage: 0.07505362505362506
Matchup edge: start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoff: 9
Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better): Missing / not retained
Matchup edge: wins above replacement pace per plate appearance: Missing / not retained
Matchup edge: batters the starter has faced this season (evidence weight): -709
Matchup edge: wins above replacement this season: Missing / not retained
Combined level: bulk-relief outs recorded over the last 7 days: 3
Combined level: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days: 19
Matchup edge: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days: -4
Combined level: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers: 0.25567772170151404
Matchup edge: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers: -0.06398702235039652
Combined level: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days: 5.971341023792357
Matchup edge: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days: 0.8467916366258104
Combined level: bullpen fatigue risk: 4.596359048305696

This bounded excerpt is not the complete feature vector. Null values are not assumed to be zero.

Recorded latest pregame · confirmed-lineup

Tree contributions are raw log-odds toward the home team (+) or away team (−), before calibration. They are not probability points or proof of causation.

Baseball input	Recorded value	Contribution
Matchup edge: season run differential The home team's season run differential minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse.	0.256578947368421	+0.0414
Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year defensive runs The home team's the lineup's prior-year defensive runs minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse.	-36.09408701489022	-0.0404
Matchup edge: start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoff The home team's start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoff minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse.	9	+0.0354
Matchup edge: expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed The home team's expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse.	0.028923631363338476	+0.0354
Matchup edge: manager career winning percentage The home team's manager career winning percentage minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse.	0.07505362505362506	+0.0284
Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year wRC+ The home team's the lineup's prior-year wRC+ minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse.	5.69650113622761	+0.0276
Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better) The home team's the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better) minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse.	Not retained	-0.0173
Matchup edge: wins above replacement pace per plate appearance The home team's wins above replacement pace per plate appearance minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse.	0.052424416201921176	-0.0170

Recorded input excerpt (16 values)

Matchup edge: season run differential: 0.256578947368421
Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year defensive runs: -36.09408701489022
Matchup edge: start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoff: 9
Matchup edge: expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed: 0.028923631363338476
Matchup edge: manager career winning percentage: 0.07505362505362506
Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year wRC+: 5.69650113622761
Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better): Missing / not retained
Matchup edge: wins above replacement pace per plate appearance: 0.052424416201921176
Combined level: bulk-relief outs recorded over the last 7 days: 0
Combined level: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days: 19
Matchup edge: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days: -4
Combined level: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers: 0.2511904761904762
Matchup edge: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers: -0.0976190476190476
Combined level: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days: 5.5285714285714285
Matchup edge: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days: 1.7999999999999998
Combined level: bullpen fatigue risk: 3.948571428571429

This bounded excerpt is not the complete feature vector. Null values are not assumed to be zero.

Tabular model explanation

No game-specific tabular explanation was retained.

Eye-test prompt: which recorded input fits what you saw, and which would you question? A single win or loss cannot establish that the reasoning was right.

03 · Movement

What changed?

Recorded moneyline prices

Prices move at a fixed selection; a change in a totals line is a different contract. Collection runs independently of opening this notebook.

Latest available books and main / alternate totals

Current board coverage may no longer include completed games. An empty board is not proof that no historical quotes were collected.

Model snapshots

No retained movement series is available in the published summary. First/latest checkpoints remain above.

04 · Review

Price quality and result are separate questions

No settled score recorded yet.

Market	Latest pregame selection	Forecast	Outcome	Recorded CLV
Moneyline	Kansas City Royals	43.0%	Pending	Unavailable / incomparable
Total 8.5	Under 8.5	50.6%	Pending	-2.0%
Total 9.5	Over 9.5	39.5%	Lost	Unavailable / incomparable
Total 10.5	Under 10.5	67.1%	Won	Unavailable / incomparable
Total 4.5	Over 4.5	85.5%	Won	Unavailable / incomparable
Total 3.5	Over 3.5	90.5%	Won	Unavailable / incomparable
Total 5.5	Under 5.5	24.1%	Lost	Unavailable / incomparable
Total 7.5	Over 7.5	57.2%	Won	Unavailable / incomparable
Total 12.5	Over 12.5	20.0%	Lost	Unavailable / incomparable
Total 13.5	Over 13.5	14.4%	Lost	Unavailable / incomparable
Total 6.5	Over 6.5	68.4%	Won	Unavailable / incomparable
Total 11.5	Over 11.5	25.2%	Lost	Unavailable / incomparable

Recorded CLV compares the first and latest eligible pregame implied probabilities under the existing history policy. It is not a verified sportsbook closing tick. Missing or changed-selection comparisons stay unavailable.

A good price can lose; a poor forecast can win. Use forecast quality and matched model cohorts to judge repeated performance.

Technical details

Forecast captured: Sep 17, 11:02 PM UTC
Moneyline captured: Sep 17, 10:50 PM UTC
Total market captured: Sep 17, 11:00 PM UTC
Score last fetched: Unavailable

The score source does not supply a per-game update timestamp; fetch time records when this score feed was retrieved, not when the score changed.

Model − market is a descriptive runs difference using the recorded total from within 30 minutes before this pregame forecast. It does not establish a qualifying paper bet.

Model input coverage

This record does not contain per-game input coverage. Availability cannot be inferred from the displayed probabilities.