Baseball · Game notebook · 2026-10-01
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
01 · Forecast
What did we believe?
No current actionable forecast is substituted for this game. The recorded checkpoints below are the historical evidence.
Moneyline · 6 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Philadelphia Phillies · 45.3%+119 at polymarket · recorded edge -0.4%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Atlanta Braves · 54.9%-106 at the-odds-api · recorded edge +3.4%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 6.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 6.5 · 28.5%+152 at polymarket · recorded edge -11.7%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 6.5 · 28.5%+146 at kalshi · recorded edge -12.2%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 3.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 3.5 · 91.7%-788 at kalshi · recorded edge +3.0%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 3.5 · 8.3%+625 at kalshi · recorded edge -5.5%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 11.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 11.5 · 28.6%+456 at kalshi · recorded edge +10.6%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 11.5 · 71.4%-564 at kalshi · recorded edge -13.5%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 5.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 5.5 · 78.5%-263 at kalshi · recorded edge +6.1%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 5.5 · 21.5%+218 at kalshi · recorded edge -10.0%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 4.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 4.5 · 12.7%+398 at kalshi · recorded edge -7.4%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 4.5 · 87.3%-489 at kalshi · recorded edge +4.3%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 8.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 8.5 · 46.6%-148 at polymarket · recorded edge -13.6%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 8.5 · 53.4%+134 at polymarket · recorded edge +10.2%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 9.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 9.5 · 56.6%-251 at kalshi · recorded edge -15.0%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 9.5 · 43.4%+208 at kalshi · recorded edge +11.0%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 10.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 10.5 · 63.3%-360 at kalshi · recorded edge -14.9%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 10.5 · 36.7%+296 at kalshi · recorded edge +11.4%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 7.5 · 4 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 7.5 · 50.1%+101 at polymarket · recorded edge +0.3%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 7.5 · 50.0%+101 at polymarket · recorded edge +0.3%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 7 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 7 · 51.9%-116 at the-odds-api · recorded edge -1.8%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 7 · 51.9%-116 at the-odds-api · recorded edge -1.8%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
02 · Why
Connect the forecast to the baseball
Recorded first look · schedule-only
Tree contributions are raw log-odds toward the home team (+) or away team (−), before calibration. They are not probability points or proof of causation.
| Baseball input | Recorded value | Contribution |
|---|---|---|
Matchup edge: expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowedThe home team's expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 0.0735604179095618 | +0.0558 |
Matchup edge: season run differentialThe home team's season run differential minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 0.6234567901234568 | +0.0399 |
Matchup edge: runs allowed per game this seasonThe home team's runs allowed per game this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.4444444444444442 | +0.0364 |
Matchup edge: start-of-day playoff-race leverageThe home team's start-of-day playoff-race leverage minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.19073318414008023 | -0.0350 |
Matchup edge: start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoffThe home team's start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoff minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 6 | +0.0266 |
Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better)The home team's the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better) minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | Not retained | -0.0234 |
Matchup edge: manager career winning percentageThe home team's manager career winning percentage minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.023513447475435045 | -0.0214 |
Matchup edge: proximity to the start-of-day playoff qualification cutoffThe home team's proximity to the start-of-day playoff qualification cutoff minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.8646647167633873 | -0.0184 |
Recorded input excerpt (16 values)
- Matchup edge: expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed
- 0.0735604179095618
- Matchup edge: season run differential
- 0.6234567901234568
- Matchup edge: runs allowed per game this season
- -0.4444444444444442
- Matchup edge: start-of-day playoff-race leverage
- -0.19073318414008023
- Matchup edge: start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoff
- 6
- Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better)
- Missing / not retained
- Matchup edge: manager career winning percentage
- -0.023513447475435045
- Matchup edge: proximity to the start-of-day playoff qualification cutoff
- -0.8646647167633873
- Combined level: bulk-relief outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 14
- Combined level: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 22.5
- Matchup edge: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 3
- Combined level: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers
- 0.27186813186813186
- Matchup edge: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers
- -0.016263736263736284
- Combined level: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days
- 4.956923076923077
- Matchup edge: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days
- -1.6061538461538456
- Combined level: bullpen fatigue risk
- 4.342153846153846
This bounded excerpt is not the complete feature vector. Null values are not assumed to be zero.
Recorded latest pregame · schedule-only
Tree contributions are raw log-odds toward the home team (+) or away team (−), before calibration. They are not probability points or proof of causation.
| Baseball input | Recorded value | Contribution |
|---|---|---|
Matchup edge: expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowedThe home team's expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 0.0741808075867505 | +0.0588 |
Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year wRC+The home team's the lineup's prior-year wRC+ minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -9.167041048458174 | -0.0532 |
Matchup edge: runs allowed per game this seasonThe home team's runs allowed per game this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.4451219512195119 | +0.0438 |
Matchup edge: season run differentialThe home team's season run differential minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 0.6280487804878049 | +0.0435 |
Matchup edge: start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoffThe home team's start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoff minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 6 | +0.0296 |
Matchup edge: start-of-day playoff-race leverageThe home team's start-of-day playoff-race leverage minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.19073318414008023 | -0.0287 |
Matchup edge: wins above replacement this seasonThe home team's wins above replacement this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 4.760085226189059 | +0.0280 |
Matchup edge: manager career winning percentageThe home team's manager career winning percentage minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.023513447475435045 | -0.0203 |
Recorded input excerpt (16 values)
- Matchup edge: expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed
- 0.0741808075867505
- Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year wRC+
- -9.167041048458174
- Matchup edge: runs allowed per game this season
- -0.4451219512195119
- Matchup edge: season run differential
- 0.6280487804878049
- Matchup edge: start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoff
- 6
- Matchup edge: start-of-day playoff-race leverage
- -0.19073318414008023
- Matchup edge: wins above replacement this season
- 4.760085226189059
- Matchup edge: manager career winning percentage
- -0.023513447475435045
- Combined level: bulk-relief outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 14
- Combined level: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 22.5
- Matchup edge: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 3
- Combined level: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers
- 0.27186813186813186
- Matchup edge: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers
- -0.016263736263736284
- Combined level: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days
- 4.956923076923077
- Matchup edge: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days
- -1.6061538461538456
- Combined level: bullpen fatigue risk
- 4.342153846153846
This bounded excerpt is not the complete feature vector. Null values are not assumed to be zero.
Tabular model explanation
No game-specific tabular explanation was retained.
Eye-test prompt: which recorded input fits what you saw, and which would you question? A single win or loss cannot establish that the reasoning was right.
03 · Movement
What changed?
Recorded moneyline prices
Prices move at a fixed selection; a change in a totals line is a different contract. Collection runs independently of opening this notebook.
Latest available books and main / alternate totals
Current board coverage may no longer include completed games. An empty board is not proof that no historical quotes were collected.
Model snapshots
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 96 snapshots · -1.1% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 112 snapshots · +0.8% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 2 snapshots · +0.0% change
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retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · +0.0% change
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retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · +0.0% change
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retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · +0.0% change
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retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · +0.0% change
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retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · +0.0% change
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retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · +0.0% change
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retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · +0.0% change
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retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · +0.0% change
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retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · +0.0% change
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retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · +0.0% change
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retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · +0.0% change
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retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · +0.0% change
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retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · +0.0% change
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retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · +0.0% change
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retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · +0.0% change
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retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 3 snapshots · +0.0% change
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retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 2 snapshots · +0.0% change
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retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 26 snapshots · +0.0% change
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retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 21 snapshots · +0.0% change
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retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 43 snapshots · +0.0% change
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04 · Review
Price quality and result are separate questions
Final score (away–home): 2-6
| Market | Latest pregame selection | Forecast | Outcome | Recorded CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total 6.5 | Under 6.5 | 28.5% | Lost | +0.5% |
| Total 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 8.3% | Lost | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 11.5 | Under 11.5 | 71.4% | Won | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 5.5 | Under 5.5 | 21.5% | Lost | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 4.5 | Over 4.5 | 87.3% | Won | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 8.5 | Over 8.5 | 53.4% | Lost | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 9.5 | Over 9.5 | 43.4% | Lost | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 10.5 | Over 10.5 | 36.7% | Lost | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 7.5 | Over 7.5 | 50.0% | Pending | +0.0% |
| Moneyline | Atlanta Braves | 54.9% | Pending | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 7 | Over 7 | 51.9% | Pending | +0.0% |
Recorded CLV compares the first and latest eligible pregame implied probabilities under the existing history policy. It is not a verified sportsbook closing tick. Missing or changed-selection comparisons stay unavailable.
A good price can lose; a poor forecast can win. Use forecast quality and matched model cohorts to judge repeated performance.
Technical details
- Forecast captured
- Moneyline captured
- Total market captured
- Score last fetched
- Unavailable
The score source does not supply a per-game update timestamp; fetch time records when this score feed was retrieved, not when the score changed.
Model − market is a descriptive runs difference using the recorded total from within 30 minutes before this pregame forecast. It does not establish a qualifying paper bet.
Model input coverage
This record does not contain per-game input coverage. Availability cannot be inferred from the displayed probabilities.