Baseball · Game notebook · 2026-08-30
Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians
01 · Forecast
What did we believe?
No current actionable forecast is substituted for this game. The recorded checkpoints below are the historical evidence.
Moneyline · 8 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-odds2025-servable-2026-v15.0.0
Cleveland Guardians · 61.5%-168 at kalshi · recorded edge -1.2%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Kansas City Royals · 37.4%+159 at kalshi · recorded edge -1.2%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 7.5 · 7 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-odds2025-servable-2026-v15.0.0
Over 7.5 · 49.2%-103 at kalshi · recorded edge -1.6%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 7.5 · 49.6%-103 at kalshi · recorded edge -1.1%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 5.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 5.5 · 28.5%+208 at kalshi · recorded edge -3.9%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 5.5 · 71.5%-251 at kalshi · recorded edge -0.0%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 4.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 4.5 · 82.3%-458 at kalshi · recorded edge +0.2%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 4.5 · 17.7%+373 at kalshi · recorded edge -3.4%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 10.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 10.5 · 72.6%-340 at kalshi · recorded edge -4.6%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 10.5 · 27.4%+280 at kalshi · recorded edge +1.0%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 8.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 8.5 · 56.5%-148 at polymarket · recorded edge -4.1%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 8.5 · 43.5%+134 at kalshi · recorded edge +0.7%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 11.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 11.5 · 20.3%+425 at kalshi · recorded edge +1.2%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 11.5 · 79.7%-525 at kalshi · recorded edge -4.3%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 9.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 9.5 · 66.3%-240 at polymarket · recorded edge -4.7%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 9.5 · 33.7%+216 at polymarket · recorded edge +1.6%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 3.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 3.5 · 11.8%+574 at kalshi · recorded edge -3.0%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 3.5 · 88.2%-719 at kalshi · recorded edge +0.4%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 6.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 6.5 · 36.9%+140 at kalshi · recorded edge -4.8%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 6.5 · 63.1%-168 at kalshi · recorded edge +0.5%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
02 · Why
Connect the forecast to the baseball
Recorded first look: input and contribution evidence was not retained in this summary.
Recorded latest pregame: input and contribution evidence was not retained in this summary.
Tabular model explanation
shapiq-imputation-baseline-sv-v1 · class-1 logit scale · 512 evaluation budget. This explains the tabular opinion, not the recommendation policy.
- Matchup edge: start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoff: 0.0449
- Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better): 0.0344
- Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk rate: 0.0223
- Matchup edge: proximity to the start-of-day playoff qualification cutoff: -0.0159
- Matchup edge: batters the starter has faced this season (evidence weight): -0.0131
- Matchup edge: start-of-day playoff-race leverage: 0.0108
- Matchup edge: the lineup's season-to-date defensive error prevention: -0.0083
- Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year wRC+: 0.0082
Eye-test prompt: which recorded input fits what you saw, and which would you question? A single win or loss cannot establish that the reasoning was right.
03 · Movement
What changed?
Recorded moneyline prices
Prices move at a fixed selection; a change in a totals line is a different contract. Collection runs independently of opening this notebook.
Latest available books and main / alternate totals
Current board coverage may no longer include completed games. An empty board is not proof that no historical quotes were collected.
Model snapshots
No retained movement series is available in the published summary. First/latest checkpoints remain above.
04 · Review
Price quality and result are separate questions
No settled score recorded yet.
| Market | Latest pregame selection | Forecast | Outcome | Recorded CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total 7.5 | Over 7.5 | 49.6% | Pending | +0.0% |
| Moneyline | Kansas City Royals | 37.4% | Pending | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 5.5 | Over 5.5 | 71.5% | Won | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 4.5 | Under 4.5 | 17.7% | Lost | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 10.5 | Over 10.5 | 27.4% | Won | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 8.5 | Over 8.5 | 43.5% | Won | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 11.5 | Under 11.5 | 79.7% | Lost | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 9.5 | Over 9.5 | 33.7% | Won | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 3.5 | Over 3.5 | 88.2% | Won | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 6.5 | Over 6.5 | 63.1% | Won | Unavailable / incomparable |
Recorded CLV compares the first and latest eligible pregame implied probabilities under the existing history policy. It is not a verified sportsbook closing tick. Missing or changed-selection comparisons stay unavailable.
A good price can lose; a poor forecast can win. Use forecast quality and matched model cohorts to judge repeated performance.
Technical details
- Forecast captured
- Unavailable
- Moneyline captured
- Unavailable
- Total market captured
- Unavailable
- Score last fetched
- Unavailable
The score source does not supply a per-game update timestamp; fetch time records when this score feed was retrieved, not when the score changed.
Totals difference withheld: comparison requires known pregame capture times, with the market captured no more than 30 minutes before the forecast.
Model input coverage
This record does not contain per-game input coverage. Availability cannot be inferred from the displayed probabilities.