Baseball · Game notebook · 2026-09-19
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
01 · Forecast
What did we believe?
No current actionable forecast is substituted for this game. The recorded checkpoints below are the historical evidence.
Moneyline · 8 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Philadelphia Phillies · 51.7%-103 at kalshi · recorded edge +1.0%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Philadelphia Phillies · 50.4%+105 at kalshi · recorded edge +1.6%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 7.5 · 4 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 7.5 · 50.1%+105 at polymarket · recorded edge +1.3%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 7.5 · 49.6%+114 at polymarket · recorded edge +2.9%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 9.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 9.5 · 60.3%-199 at kalshi · recorded edge -6.3%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 9.5 · 60.4%-191 at polymarket · recorded edge -5.7%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 4.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 4.5 · 85.5%-609 at kalshi · recorded edge -0.4%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 4.5 · 14.5%+490 at kalshi · recorded edge -2.4%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 10.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 10.5 · 33.1%+229 at kalshi · recorded edge +2.7%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 10.5 · 66.9%-276 at kalshi · recorded edge -6.5%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 5.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 5.5 · 76.0%-306 at kalshi · recorded edge +0.6%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 5.5 · 24.0%+240 at kalshi · recorded edge -5.4%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 12.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 12.5 · 20.2%+456 at kalshi · recorded edge +2.2%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 12.5 · 79.8%-564 at kalshi · recorded edge -5.1%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 3.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 3.5 · 9.5%+756 at kalshi · recorded edge -2.2%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 3.5 · 90.5%-1087 at kalshi · recorded edge -1.1%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 8.5 · 4 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 8.5 · 51.1%-126 at polymarket · recorded edge -4.6%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 8.5 · 50.3%-126 at polymarket · recorded edge -5.9%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 11.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 11.5 · 74.7%-404 at kalshi · recorded edge -5.5%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 11.5 · 25.3%+331 at kalshi · recorded edge +2.1%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 6.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 6.5 · 31.5%+173 at kalshi · recorded edge -5.1%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 6.5 · 68.5%-208 at kalshi · recorded edge +0.9%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
02 · Why
Connect the forecast to the baseball
Recorded first look · schedule-only
Tree contributions are raw log-odds toward the home team (+) or away team (−), before calibration. They are not probability points or proof of causation.
| Baseball input | Recorded value | Contribution |
|---|---|---|
Matchup edge: manager career winning percentageThe home team's manager career winning percentage minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.11673369079535306 | -0.0478 |
Matchup edge: expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowedThe home team's expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.05526321251010752 | -0.0437 |
Matchup edge: start-of-day playoff-race leverageThe home team's start-of-day playoff-race leverage minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.1684318628806996 | -0.0410 |
Matchup edge: runs allowed per game this seasonThe home team's runs allowed per game this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 0.2828947368421053 | -0.0341 |
Matchup edge: proximity to the start-of-day playoff qualification cutoffThe home team's proximity to the start-of-day playoff qualification cutoff minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.619828026044233 | -0.0304 |
Matchup edge: season run differentialThe home team's season run differential minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.48684210526315785 | -0.0292 |
Matchup edge: batters the starter has faced this season (evidence weight)The home team's batters the starter has faced this season (evidence weight) minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 453 | +0.0187 |
Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year defensive runsThe home team's the lineup's prior-year defensive runs minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | Not retained | +0.0172 |
Recorded input excerpt (16 values)
- Matchup edge: manager career winning percentage
- -0.11673369079535306
- Matchup edge: expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed
- -0.05526321251010752
- Matchup edge: start-of-day playoff-race leverage
- -0.1684318628806996
- Matchup edge: runs allowed per game this season
- 0.2828947368421053
- Matchup edge: proximity to the start-of-day playoff qualification cutoff
- -0.619828026044233
- Matchup edge: season run differential
- -0.48684210526315785
- Matchup edge: batters the starter has faced this season (evidence weight)
- 453
- Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year defensive runs
- Missing / not retained
- Combined level: bulk-relief outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 2.5
- Combined level: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 20
- Matchup edge: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days
- -6
- Combined level: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers
- 0.28049242424242427
- Matchup edge: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers
- -0.13598484848484851
- Combined level: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days
- 7.706250000000001
- Matchup edge: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days
- -2.5874999999999995
- Combined level: bullpen fatigue risk
- 5.4350000000000005
This bounded excerpt is not the complete feature vector. Null values are not assumed to be zero.
Recorded latest pregame · confirmed-lineup
Tree contributions are raw log-odds toward the home team (+) or away team (−), before calibration. They are not probability points or proof of causation.
| Baseball input | Recorded value | Contribution |
|---|---|---|
Matchup edge: expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowedThe home team's expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.054772749607179816 | -0.0445 |
Matchup edge: runs allowed per game this seasonThe home team's runs allowed per game this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 0.2792207792207799 | -0.0373 |
Matchup edge: start-of-day playoff-race leverageThe home team's start-of-day playoff-race leverage minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.19737027279292899 | -0.0361 |
Matchup edge: season run differentialThe home team's season run differential minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.4805194805194805 | -0.0355 |
Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year wRC+The home team's the lineup's prior-year wRC+ minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 7.0811760869328 | +0.0302 |
Matchup edge: batters the starter has faced this season (evidence weight)The home team's batters the starter has faced this season (evidence weight) minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -54 | -0.0278 |
Matchup edge: proximity to the start-of-day playoff qualification cutoffThe home team's proximity to the start-of-day playoff qualification cutoff minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.8951620971489723 | -0.0277 |
Matchup edge: manager career winning percentageThe home team's manager career winning percentage minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.054033485540334825 | -0.0273 |
Recorded input excerpt (16 values)
- Matchup edge: expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed
- -0.054772749607179816
- Matchup edge: runs allowed per game this season
- 0.2792207792207799
- Matchup edge: start-of-day playoff-race leverage
- -0.19737027279292899
- Matchup edge: season run differential
- -0.4805194805194805
- Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year wRC+
- 7.0811760869328
- Matchup edge: batters the starter has faced this season (evidence weight)
- -54
- Matchup edge: proximity to the start-of-day playoff qualification cutoff
- -0.8951620971489723
- Matchup edge: manager career winning percentage
- -0.054033485540334825
- Combined level: bulk-relief outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 5.5
- Combined level: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 24
- Matchup edge: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days
- -4
- Combined level: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers
- 0.31114864864864866
- Matchup edge: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers
- -0.027702702702702697
- Combined level: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days
- 5.705574324324324
- Matchup edge: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days
- -4.113851351351351
- Combined level: bullpen fatigue risk
- 4.4782094594594595
This bounded excerpt is not the complete feature vector. Null values are not assumed to be zero.
Tabular model explanation
No game-specific tabular explanation was retained.
Eye-test prompt: which recorded input fits what you saw, and which would you question? A single win or loss cannot establish that the reasoning was right.
03 · Movement
What changed?
Recorded moneyline prices
Prices move at a fixed selection; a change in a totals line is a different contract. Collection runs independently of opening this notebook.
Latest available books and main / alternate totals
Current board coverage may no longer include completed games. An empty board is not proof that no historical quotes were collected.
Model snapshots
No retained movement series is available in the published summary. First/latest checkpoints remain above.
04 · Review
Price quality and result are separate questions
No settled score recorded yet.
| Market | Latest pregame selection | Forecast | Outcome | Recorded CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total 7.5 | Under 7.5 | 49.6% | Pending | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | Philadelphia Phillies | 50.4% | Pending | -2.0% |
| Total 9.5 | Under 9.5 | 60.4% | Lost | -0.5% |
| Total 4.5 | Under 4.5 | 14.5% | Lost | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 10.5 | Under 10.5 | 66.9% | Lost | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 5.5 | Under 5.5 | 24.0% | Lost | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 12.5 | Under 12.5 | 79.8% | Lost | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 3.5 | Over 3.5 | 90.5% | Won | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 8.5 | Under 8.5 | 50.3% | Lost | +0.5% |
| Total 11.5 | Over 11.5 | 25.3% | Won | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 6.5 | Over 6.5 | 68.5% | Won | Unavailable / incomparable |
Recorded CLV compares the first and latest eligible pregame implied probabilities under the existing history policy. It is not a verified sportsbook closing tick. Missing or changed-selection comparisons stay unavailable.
A good price can lose; a poor forecast can win. Use forecast quality and matched model cohorts to judge repeated performance.
Technical details
- Forecast captured
- Moneyline captured
- Total market captured
- Score last fetched
- Unavailable
The score source does not supply a per-game update timestamp; fetch time records when this score feed was retrieved, not when the score changed.
Model − market is a descriptive runs difference using the recorded total from within 30 minutes before this pregame forecast. It does not establish a qualifying paper bet.
Model input coverage
This record does not contain per-game input coverage. Availability cannot be inferred from the displayed probabilities.