Baseball · Game notebook · 2026-09-30
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
01 · Forecast
What did we believe?
No current actionable forecast is substituted for this game. The recorded checkpoints below are the historical evidence.
Moneyline · 8 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Atlanta Braves · 54.7%-112 at polymarket · recorded edge +1.9%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Atlanta Braves · 51.5%+101 at polymarket · recorded edge +1.8%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 7.5 · 4 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 7.5 · 49.6%+109 at kalshi · recorded edge +1.7%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 7.5 · 49.9%+114 at polymarket · recorded edge +3.1%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 8.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 8.5 · 45.2%+158 at polymarket · recorded edge +5.9%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 8.5 · 45.2%+159 at kalshi · recorded edge +6.5%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 10.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 10.5 · 28.8%+331 at kalshi · recorded edge +5.6%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 10.5 · 71.2%-404 at kalshi · recorded edge -9.0%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 5.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 5.5 · 72.7%-218 at kalshi · recorded edge +4.1%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 5.5 · 27.3%+181 at kalshi · recorded edge -8.3%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 4.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 4.5 · 83.1%-430 at kalshi · recorded edge +2.0%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 4.5 · 16.9%+331 at kalshi · recorded edge -6.3%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 3.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 3.5 · 88.8%-660 at kalshi · recorded edge +1.9%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 3.5 · 11.2%+529 at kalshi · recorded edge -4.7%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 9.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 9.5 · 35.3%+240 at kalshi · recorded edge +5.9%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 9.5 · 64.7%-306 at kalshi · recorded edge -10.7%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 6.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 6.5 · 35.4%+134 at polymarket · recorded edge -8.3%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 6.5 · 64.6%-148 at kalshi · recorded edge +4.9%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 11.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 11.5 · 21.6%+529 at kalshi · recorded edge +5.7%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 11.5 · 78.4%-660 at kalshi · recorded edge -8.4%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
02 · Why
Connect the forecast to the baseball
Recorded first look · schedule-only
Tree contributions are raw log-odds toward the home team (+) or away team (−), before calibration. They are not probability points or proof of causation.
| Baseball input | Recorded value | Contribution |
|---|---|---|
Matchup edge: expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowedThe home team's expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 0.0735604179095618 | +0.0558 |
Matchup edge: season run differentialThe home team's season run differential minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 0.6234567901234568 | +0.0399 |
Matchup edge: runs allowed per game this seasonThe home team's runs allowed per game this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.4444444444444442 | +0.0364 |
Matchup edge: start-of-day playoff-race leverageThe home team's start-of-day playoff-race leverage minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.19073318414008023 | -0.0350 |
Matchup edge: start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoffThe home team's start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoff minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 6 | +0.0266 |
Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better)The home team's the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better) minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | Not retained | -0.0234 |
Matchup edge: manager career winning percentageThe home team's manager career winning percentage minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.023513447475435045 | -0.0214 |
Matchup edge: proximity to the start-of-day playoff qualification cutoffThe home team's proximity to the start-of-day playoff qualification cutoff minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.8646647167633873 | -0.0184 |
Recorded input excerpt (16 values)
- Matchup edge: expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed
- 0.0735604179095618
- Matchup edge: season run differential
- 0.6234567901234568
- Matchup edge: runs allowed per game this season
- -0.4444444444444442
- Matchup edge: start-of-day playoff-race leverage
- -0.19073318414008023
- Matchup edge: start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoff
- 6
- Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better)
- Missing / not retained
- Matchup edge: manager career winning percentage
- -0.023513447475435045
- Matchup edge: proximity to the start-of-day playoff qualification cutoff
- -0.8646647167633873
- Combined level: bulk-relief outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 14
- Combined level: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 22.5
- Matchup edge: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 3
- Combined level: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers
- 0.27186813186813186
- Matchup edge: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers
- -0.016263736263736284
- Combined level: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days
- 4.956923076923077
- Matchup edge: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days
- -1.6061538461538456
- Combined level: bullpen fatigue risk
- 4.342153846153846
This bounded excerpt is not the complete feature vector. Null values are not assumed to be zero.
Recorded latest pregame · confirmed-lineup
Tree contributions are raw log-odds toward the home team (+) or away team (−), before calibration. They are not probability points or proof of causation.
| Baseball input | Recorded value | Contribution |
|---|---|---|
Matchup edge: expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowedThe home team's expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 0.07596915219278344 | +0.0588 |
Matchup edge: season run differentialThe home team's season run differential minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 0.6441717791411044 | +0.0497 |
Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year wRC+The home team's the lineup's prior-year wRC+ minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -11.557597351116144 | -0.0458 |
Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk rateThe home team's the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk rate minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.10124201999999999 | -0.0441 |
Matchup edge: runs allowed per game this seasonThe home team's runs allowed per game this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.4539877300613502 | +0.0391 |
Matchup edge: the starter's season-to-date strikeout-minus-walk rateThe home team's the starter's season-to-date strikeout-minus-walk rate minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.06882769999999999 | -0.0339 |
Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better)The home team's the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better) minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 1.659505020605982 | -0.0275 |
Matchup edge: start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoffThe home team's start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoff minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 7 | +0.0248 |
Recorded input excerpt (16 values)
- Matchup edge: expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed
- 0.07596915219278344
- Matchup edge: season run differential
- 0.6441717791411044
- Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year wRC+
- -11.557597351116144
- Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk rate
- -0.10124201999999999
- Matchup edge: runs allowed per game this season
- -0.4539877300613502
- Matchup edge: the starter's season-to-date strikeout-minus-walk rate
- -0.06882769999999999
- Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better)
- 1.659505020605982
- Matchup edge: start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoff
- 7
- Combined level: bulk-relief outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 14
- Combined level: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 22.5
- Matchup edge: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 3
- Combined level: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers
- 0.27186813186813186
- Matchup edge: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers
- -0.016263736263736284
- Combined level: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days
- 4.956923076923077
- Matchup edge: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days
- -1.6061538461538456
- Combined level: bullpen fatigue risk
- 4.342153846153846
This bounded excerpt is not the complete feature vector. Null values are not assumed to be zero.
Tabular model explanation
No game-specific tabular explanation was retained.
Eye-test prompt: which recorded input fits what you saw, and which would you question? A single win or loss cannot establish that the reasoning was right.
03 · Movement
What changed?
Recorded moneyline prices
Prices move at a fixed selection; a change in a totals line is a different contract. Collection runs independently of opening this notebook.
Latest available books and main / alternate totals
Current board coverage may no longer include completed games. An empty board is not proof that no historical quotes were collected.
Model snapshots
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 7 snapshots · +0.0% change
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retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 7 snapshots · +0.0% change
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retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · +0.0% change
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retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · +0.0% change
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retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · +0.0% change
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retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · +0.0% change
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retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · +0.0% change
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retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · +0.0% change
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retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 5 snapshots · +0.0% change
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retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 2 snapshots · +0.0% change
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04 · Review
Price quality and result are separate questions
No settled score recorded yet.
| Market | Latest pregame selection | Forecast | Outcome | Recorded CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total 7.5 | Over 7.5 | 49.9% | Pending | -1.1% |
| Moneyline | Atlanta Braves | 51.5% | Pending | -3.1% |
| Total 8.5 | Over 8.5 | 45.2% | Lost | -0.5% |
| Total 10.5 | Under 10.5 | 71.2% | Won | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 5.5 | Under 5.5 | 27.3% | Lost | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 4.5 | Under 4.5 | 16.9% | Lost | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 11.2% | Lost | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 9.5 | Under 9.5 | 64.7% | Won | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 6.5 | Over 6.5 | 64.6% | Won | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 11.5 | Under 11.5 | 78.4% | Won | Unavailable / incomparable |
Recorded CLV compares the first and latest eligible pregame implied probabilities under the existing history policy. It is not a verified sportsbook closing tick. Missing or changed-selection comparisons stay unavailable.
A good price can lose; a poor forecast can win. Use forecast quality and matched model cohorts to judge repeated performance.
Technical details
- Forecast captured
- Moneyline captured
- Total market captured
- Score last fetched
- Unavailable
The score source does not supply a per-game update timestamp; fetch time records when this score feed was retrieved, not when the score changed.
Model − market is a descriptive runs difference using the recorded total from within 30 minutes before this pregame forecast. It does not establish a qualifying paper bet.
Model input coverage
This record does not contain per-game input coverage. Availability cannot be inferred from the displayed probabilities.