Baseball · Game notebook · 2026-10-03
San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers
01 · Forecast
What did we believe?
No current actionable forecast is substituted for this game. The recorded checkpoints below are the historical evidence.
Moneyline · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
San Diego Padres · 41.4%+187 at the-odds-api · recorded edge +6.6%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
San Diego Padres · 41.4%+178 at the-odds-api · recorded edge +5.4%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 7 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 7 · 50.5%-102 at the-odds-api · recorded edge +0.0%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 7 · 50.5%-109 at the-odds-api · recorded edge -1.7%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
02 · Why
Connect the forecast to the baseball
Recorded first look · schedule-only
Tree contributions are raw log-odds toward the home team (+) or away team (−), before calibration. They are not probability points or proof of causation.
| Baseball input | Recorded value | Contribution |
|---|---|---|
Matchup edge: expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowedThe home team's expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 0.1077663525187792 | +0.0706 |
Matchup edge: start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoffThe home team's start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoff minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 11 | +0.0654 |
Matchup edge: season run differentialThe home team's season run differential minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 1.0039144835892804 | +0.0405 |
Matchup edge: manager career winning percentageThe home team's manager career winning percentage minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 0.07407407407407407 | +0.0271 |
Matchup edge: runs allowed per game this seasonThe home team's runs allowed per game this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.3437217705510385 | +0.0207 |
Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better)The home team's the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better) minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | Not retained | -0.0191 |
Matchup edge: proximity to the start-of-day playoff qualification cutoffThe home team's proximity to the start-of-day playoff qualification cutoff minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.2568591911166413 | -0.0190 |
Matchup edge: wins above replacement this seasonThe home team's wins above replacement this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | Not retained | -0.0120 |
Recorded input excerpt (16 values)
- Matchup edge: expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed
- 0.1077663525187792
- Matchup edge: start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoff
- 11
- Matchup edge: season run differential
- 1.0039144835892804
- Matchup edge: manager career winning percentage
- 0.07407407407407407
- Matchup edge: runs allowed per game this season
- -0.3437217705510385
- Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better)
- Missing / not retained
- Matchup edge: proximity to the start-of-day playoff qualification cutoff
- -0.2568591911166413
- Matchup edge: wins above replacement this season
- Missing / not retained
- Combined level: bulk-relief outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 17
- Combined level: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 24.5
- Matchup edge: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 1
- Combined level: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers
- 0.25387907972177637
- Matchup edge: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers
- -0.03156768325307652
- Combined level: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days
- 3.5378812199036918
- Matchup edge: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days
- -1.418619582664527
- Combined level: bullpen fatigue risk
- 3.0819261637239164
This bounded excerpt is not the complete feature vector. Null values are not assumed to be zero.
Recorded latest pregame · schedule-only
Tree contributions are raw log-odds toward the home team (+) or away team (−), before calibration. They are not probability points or proof of causation.
| Baseball input | Recorded value | Contribution |
|---|---|---|
Matchup edge: expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowedThe home team's expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 0.1077663525187792 | +0.0706 |
Matchup edge: start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoffThe home team's start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoff minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 11 | +0.0654 |
Matchup edge: season run differentialThe home team's season run differential minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 1.0039144835892804 | +0.0405 |
Matchup edge: manager career winning percentageThe home team's manager career winning percentage minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 0.07407407407407407 | +0.0264 |
Matchup edge: runs allowed per game this seasonThe home team's runs allowed per game this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.3437217705510385 | +0.0207 |
Matchup edge: proximity to the start-of-day playoff qualification cutoffThe home team's proximity to the start-of-day playoff qualification cutoff minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.21742661115042242 | -0.0190 |
Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better)The home team's the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better) minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | Not retained | -0.0190 |
Matchup edge: wins above replacement this seasonThe home team's wins above replacement this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | Not retained | -0.0120 |
Recorded input excerpt (16 values)
- Matchup edge: expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed
- 0.1077663525187792
- Matchup edge: start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoff
- 11
- Matchup edge: season run differential
- 1.0039144835892804
- Matchup edge: manager career winning percentage
- 0.07407407407407407
- Matchup edge: runs allowed per game this season
- -0.3437217705510385
- Matchup edge: proximity to the start-of-day playoff qualification cutoff
- -0.21742661115042242
- Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better)
- Missing / not retained
- Matchup edge: wins above replacement this season
- Missing / not retained
- Combined level: bulk-relief outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 17
- Combined level: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 24.5
- Matchup edge: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 1
- Combined level: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers
- 0.25387907972177637
- Matchup edge: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers
- -0.03156768325307652
- Combined level: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days
- 3.5378812199036918
- Matchup edge: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days
- -1.418619582664527
- Combined level: bullpen fatigue risk
- 3.0819261637239164
This bounded excerpt is not the complete feature vector. Null values are not assumed to be zero.
Tabular model explanation
No game-specific tabular explanation was retained.
Eye-test prompt: which recorded input fits what you saw, and which would you question? A single win or loss cannot establish that the reasoning was right.
03 · Movement
What changed?
Recorded moneyline prices
Prices move at a fixed selection; a change in a totals line is a different contract. Collection runs independently of opening this notebook.
Latest available books and main / alternate totals
Current board coverage may no longer include completed games. An empty board is not proof that no historical quotes were collected.
Model snapshots
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 47 snapshots · -0.0% change
From to
retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0 · 47 snapshots · +0.0% change
From to
04 · Review
Price quality and result are separate questions
No settled score recorded yet.
| Market | Latest pregame selection | Forecast | Outcome | Recorded CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Diego Padres | 41.4% | Pending | +1.1% |
| Total 7 | Over 7 | 50.5% | Pending | +1.6% |
Recorded CLV compares the first and latest eligible pregame implied probabilities under the existing history policy. It is not a verified sportsbook closing tick. Missing or changed-selection comparisons stay unavailable.
A good price can lose; a poor forecast can win. Use forecast quality and matched model cohorts to judge repeated performance.
Technical details
- Forecast captured
- Moneyline captured
- Total market captured
- Score last fetched
- Unavailable
The score source does not supply a per-game update timestamp; fetch time records when this score feed was retrieved, not when the score changed.
Model − market is a descriptive runs difference using the recorded total from within 30 minutes before this pregame forecast. It does not establish a qualifying paper bet.
Model input coverage
This record does not contain per-game input coverage. Availability cannot be inferred from the displayed probabilities.