Baseball · Game notebook · 2026-09-21
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles
01 · Forecast
What did we believe?
No current actionable forecast is substituted for this game. The recorded checkpoints below are the historical evidence.
Moneyline · 8 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Toronto Blue Jays · 50.1%-107 at kalshi · recorded edge -1.6%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Baltimore Orioles · 50.1%-107 at kalshi · recorded edge -1.6%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 7.5 · 5 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 7.5 · 50.4%-121 at polymarket · recorded edge -4.4%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 7.5 · 50.5%+101 at polymarket · recorded edge +0.8%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 8.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 8.5 · 49.4%-154 at kalshi · recorded edge -11.3%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 8.5 · 50.6%+140 at polymarket · recorded edge +8.0%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 9.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 9.5 · 40.7%+208 at kalshi · recorded edge +8.2%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 9.5 · 59.3%-251 at kalshi · recorded edge -12.2%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 5.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 5.5 · 76.7%-251 at kalshi · recorded edge +5.2%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 5.5 · 23.3%+208 at kalshi · recorded edge -9.1%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 3.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 3.5 · 90.8%-788 at kalshi · recorded edge +2.1%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 3.5 · 9.2%+625 at kalshi · recorded edge -4.6%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 4.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 4.5 · 14.0%+398 at kalshi · recorded edge -6.1%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 4.5 · 86.0%-489 at kalshi · recorded edge +3.0%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 10.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 10.5 · 34.0%+280 at kalshi · recorded edge +7.6%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 10.5 · 66.0%-340 at kalshi · recorded edge -11.2%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 6.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 6.5 · 30.7%+152 at polymarket · recorded edge -9.5%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 6.5 · 69.3%-168 at polymarket · recorded edge +6.1%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 11.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Over 11.5 · 26.1%+425 at kalshi · recorded edge +7.1%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0
Under 11.5 · 73.9%-525 at kalshi · recorded edge -10.1%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
02 · Why
Connect the forecast to the baseball
Recorded first look · schedule-only
Tree contributions are raw log-odds toward the home team (+) or away team (−), before calibration. They are not probability points or proof of causation.
| Baseball input | Recorded value | Contribution |
|---|---|---|
Matchup edge: start-of-day playoff-race leverageThe home team's start-of-day playoff-race leverage minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.05039354835561604 | -0.0388 |
Matchup edge: runs allowed per game this seasonThe home team's runs allowed per game this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 0.37012987012986986 | -0.0352 |
Matchup edge: batters the starter has faced this season (evidence weight)The home team's batters the starter has faced this season (evidence weight) minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -386 | -0.0275 |
Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better)The home team's the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better) minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | Not retained | -0.0222 |
Matchup edge: season run differentialThe home team's season run differential minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 0.10389610389610388 | -0.0195 |
Matchup edge: start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoffThe home team's start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoff minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -1 | -0.0177 |
Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk rateThe home team's the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk rate minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | Not retained | -0.0174 |
Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year defensive runsThe home team's the lineup's prior-year defensive runs minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | Not retained | +0.0165 |
Recorded input excerpt (16 values)
- Matchup edge: start-of-day playoff-race leverage
- -0.05039354835561604
- Matchup edge: runs allowed per game this season
- 0.37012987012986986
- Matchup edge: batters the starter has faced this season (evidence weight)
- -386
- Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better)
- Missing / not retained
- Matchup edge: season run differential
- 0.10389610389610388
- Matchup edge: start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoff
- -1
- Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk rate
- Missing / not retained
- Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year defensive runs
- Missing / not retained
- Combined level: bulk-relief outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 24.5
- Combined level: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 20.5
- Matchup edge: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days
- -5
- Combined level: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers
- 0.2084030100334448
- Matchup edge: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers
- -0.02550167224080266
- Combined level: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days
- 4.373954849498328
- Matchup edge: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days
- -1.1174749163879607
- Combined level: bullpen fatigue risk
- 4.787583612040134
This bounded excerpt is not the complete feature vector. Null values are not assumed to be zero.
Recorded latest pregame · confirmed-lineup
Tree contributions are raw log-odds toward the home team (+) or away team (−), before calibration. They are not probability points or proof of causation.
| Baseball input | Recorded value | Contribution |
|---|---|---|
Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year defensive runsThe home team's the lineup's prior-year defensive runs minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -63.80540157106033 | -0.0504 |
Matchup edge: runs allowed per game this seasonThe home team's runs allowed per game this season minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 0.3397435897435903 | -0.0372 |
Matchup edge: start-of-day playoff-race leverageThe home team's start-of-day playoff-race leverage minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -0.04741018753065718 | -0.0272 |
Matchup edge: start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoffThe home team's start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoff minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | -2 | -0.0240 |
Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better)The home team's the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better) minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 0.6530398467173462 | -0.0231 |
Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk rateThe home team's the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk rate minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 0.012363320000000011 | +0.0197 |
Matchup edge: batters the starter has faced this season (evidence weight)The home team's batters the starter has faced this season (evidence weight) minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 356 | +0.0156 |
Matchup edge: season run differentialThe home team's season run differential minus the away team's. A positive value means the home team has more of this statistic. Whether that is favorable depends on the statistic and the model; higher ERA or xFIP is generally worse. | 0.07051282051282051 | -0.0155 |
Recorded input excerpt (16 values)
- Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year defensive runs
- -63.80540157106033
- Matchup edge: runs allowed per game this season
- 0.3397435897435903
- Matchup edge: start-of-day playoff-race leverage
- -0.04741018753065718
- Matchup edge: start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoff
- -2
- Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better)
- 0.6530398467173462
- Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk rate
- 0.012363320000000011
- Matchup edge: batters the starter has faced this season (evidence weight)
- 356
- Matchup edge: season run differential
- 0.07051282051282051
- Combined level: bulk-relief outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 22
- Combined level: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days
- 20.5
- Matchup edge: high-leverage closer outs recorded over the last 7 days
- -5
- Combined level: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers
- 0.2342300556586271
- Matchup edge: share of recent bullpen work handled by closer-type relievers
- -0.0009276437847866581
- Combined level: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days
- 4.095083487940631
- Matchup edge: the bullpen's ERA over the last 7 days
- -1.177179962894249
- Combined level: bullpen fatigue risk
- 3.4455473098330245
This bounded excerpt is not the complete feature vector. Null values are not assumed to be zero.
Tabular model explanation
No game-specific tabular explanation was retained.
Eye-test prompt: which recorded input fits what you saw, and which would you question? A single win or loss cannot establish that the reasoning was right.
03 · Movement
What changed?
Recorded moneyline prices
Prices move at a fixed selection; a change in a totals line is a different contract. Collection runs independently of opening this notebook.
Latest available books and main / alternate totals
Current board coverage may no longer include completed games. An empty board is not proof that no historical quotes were collected.
Model snapshots
No retained movement series is available in the published summary. First/latest checkpoints remain above.
04 · Review
Price quality and result are separate questions
No settled score recorded yet.
| Market | Latest pregame selection | Forecast | Outcome | Recorded CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Baltimore Orioles | 50.1% | Pending | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 7.5 | Over 7.5 | 50.5% | Pending | -5.0% |
| Total 8.5 | Over 8.5 | 50.6% | Lost | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 9.5 | Under 9.5 | 59.3% | Won | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 5.5 | Under 5.5 | 23.3% | Lost | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 9.2% | Lost | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 4.5 | Over 4.5 | 86.0% | Won | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 10.5 | Under 10.5 | 66.0% | Won | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 6.5 | Over 6.5 | 69.3% | Won | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 11.5 | Under 11.5 | 73.9% | Won | Unavailable / incomparable |
Recorded CLV compares the first and latest eligible pregame implied probabilities under the existing history policy. It is not a verified sportsbook closing tick. Missing or changed-selection comparisons stay unavailable.
A good price can lose; a poor forecast can win. Use forecast quality and matched model cohorts to judge repeated performance.
Technical details
- Forecast captured
- Moneyline captured
- Total market captured
- Score last fetched
- Unavailable
The score source does not supply a per-game update timestamp; fetch time records when this score feed was retrieved, not when the score changed.
Model − market is a descriptive runs difference using the recorded total from within 30 minutes before this pregame forecast. It does not establish a qualifying paper bet.
Model input coverage
This record does not contain per-game input coverage. Availability cannot be inferred from the displayed probabilities.