Baseball

Track record

Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.

Retained daily results

70 dates available

Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026

Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.

Game history

First look vs. latest pregame

41 games unified from 112 stored model snapshots on 2026-09-30.

Games41
Settled33
First edge+1.1%
Pregame edge-2.4%
Average CLV-0.1%
Totals CLV-0.4%
GameMarketResultFirst recommendationLatest pregameCLVModel movement
Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padresevt_12a8pvrn6931d04d56fa8Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassOver 7.5 +104Model 50.0% · Market 49.0%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 +104Model 50.0% · Market 49.0%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+104 → +104Logit 0.0006 model points
Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padresevt_12a8pvrn6931d04d56fa8Starts MoneylinePaper Kelly trackedLost1-4Paper stake $200 · P/L -$200Paper betChicago Cubs +124Model 49.5% · Market 44.6%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 8.8%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200Paper betChicago Cubs +116Model 49.5% · Market 46.3%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 1.5% · $149+1.7%+124 → +116Logit 0.06738 model points
Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padresevt_12a8pvrn6931d04d56fa8Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-4PassUnder 8.5 -168Model 53.9% · Market 63.2%Edge -9.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +152Model 46.1% · Market 39.7%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-168 → +1522 model points
Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padresevt_12a8pvrn6931d04d56fa8Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-4PassOver 4.5 -458Model 83.7% · Market 82.1%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 8.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 4.5 +351Model 16.3% · Market 22.2%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-458 → +3516 model points
Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padresevt_12a8pvrn6931d04d56fa8Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-4PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 77.7% · Market 84.9%Edge -7.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 11.5 +456Model 22.3% · Market 18.0%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-564 → +4566 model points
Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padresevt_12a8pvrn6931d04d56fa8Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-4PassOver 5.5 -239Model 73.4% · Market 70.5%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 9.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 5.5 +198Model 26.6% · Market 33.6%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-239 → +1986 model points
Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padresevt_12a8pvrn6931d04d56fa8Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-4PassUnder 6.5 +140Model 34.6% · Market 42.7%Edge -8.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 6.5 -154Model 65.4% · Market 60.7%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 12.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+140 → -1546 model points
Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padresevt_12a8pvrn6931d04d56fa8Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-4PassOver 10.5 +313Model 29.7% · Market 24.2%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 7.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 10.5 -381Model 70.3% · Market 79.2%Edge -8.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+313 → -3816 model points
Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padresevt_12a8pvrn6931d04d56fa8Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-4PassOver 9.5 +229Model 36.2% · Market 30.4%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 8.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9.5 -276Model 63.8% · Market 73.4%Edge -9.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+229 → -2766 model points
Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padresevt_12a8pvrn6931d04d56fa8Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-4PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 10.8% · Market 14.8%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 3.5 -719Model 89.2% · Market 87.8%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 11.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+574 → -7196 model points
Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padresevt_12a8pvrn6931d04d56fa8Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassOver 7.5 +101Model 49.3% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 +109Model 49.8% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.9%+101 → +109Logit -0.07643 model points
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_12a8pvrn6f8ebe8683e5dStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassNew York Yankees -107Model 54.5% · Market 51.7%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassBoston Red Sox +119Model 44.8% · Market 45.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-107 → +11918 model points
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_12a8pvrn6f8ebe8683e5dStarts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 6.5 +114Model 49.0% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 6.5 +109Model 48.9% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+1.1%+114 → +109Logit 0.04538 model points
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_12a8pvrn6f8ebe8683e5dStarts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-9PassOver 5.5 -175Model 70.7% · Market 64.2%Edge +6.6% · Full Kelly 19.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 5.5 -175Model 70.7% · Market 63.6%Edge +7.1% · Full Kelly 19.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-0.5%-175 → -175Logit -0.022-1 model points
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_12a8pvrn6f8ebe8683e5dStarts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-9PassOver 4.5 -340Model 81.7% · Market 77.3%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 19.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 4.5 +266Model 18.3% · Market 27.3%Edge -9.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-340 → +2665 model points
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_12a8pvrn6f8ebe8683e5dStarts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-9PassUnder 3.5 +456Model 12.2% · Market 18.0%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 3.5 -564Model 87.8% · Market 84.9%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 18.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+456 → -5645 model points
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_12a8pvrn6f8ebe8683e5dStarts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-9PassOver 7.5 +146Model 50.4% · Market 41.2%Edge +9.3% · Full Kelly 16.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 7.5 -161Model 49.6% · Market 62.2%Edge -12.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+146 → -1615 model points
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_12a8pvrn6f8ebe8683e5dStarts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-9PassOver 10.5 +425Model 26.5% · Market 19.0%Edge +7.4% · Full Kelly 9.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 10.5 -525Model 73.5% · Market 84.0%Edge -10.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+425 → -5255 model points
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_12a8pvrn6f8ebe8683e5dStarts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-9PassOver 9.5 +296Model 32.8% · Market 25.3%Edge +7.5% · Full Kelly 10.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9.5 -360Model 67.2% · Market 78.3%Edge -11.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+296 → -3605 model points
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_12a8pvrn6f8ebe8683e5dStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-9PassOver 8.5 +189Model 42.5% · Market 34.6%Edge +7.9% · Full Kelly 12.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 -228Model 57.5% · Market 69.5%Edge -12.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+189 → -2285 model points
Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8pvrn65a757f5fbb85Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassChicago White Sox +152Model 47.9% · Market 39.7%Edge +8.2% · Full Kelly 13.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassChicago White Sox +134Model 45.3% · Market 42.7%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+3.1%+152 → +134Logit 0.12622 model points
Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8pvrn65a757f5fbb85Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 7.5 -112Model 49.8% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 -103Model 49.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-112 → -10322 model points
Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8pvrn65a757f5fbb85Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-3PassUnder 8.5 -142Model 53.7% · Market 59.2%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 -148Model 54.1% · Market 59.7%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.5%-142 → -148Logit 0.021-1 model points
Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8pvrn65a757f5fbb85Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betWon7-3PassOver 10.5 +252Model 29.9% · Market 28.4%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 70.1% · Market 75.4%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+252 → -3065 model points
Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8pvrn65a757f5fbb85Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betWon7-3PassUnder 5.5 +218Model 26.4% · Market 31.4%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 5.5 -263Model 73.6% · Market 72.5%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+218 → -2635 model points
Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8pvrn65a757f5fbb85Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betWon7-3PassOver 11.5 +373Model 22.5% · Market 21.1%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 77.5% · Market 82.1%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+373 → -4585 model points
Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8pvrn65a757f5fbb85Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-3PassOver 9.5 +189Model 36.4% · Market 34.6%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9.5 -239Model 63.6% · Market 70.5%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+189 → -2395 model points
Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8pvrn65a757f5fbb85Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betWon7-3PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 10.7% · Market 13.8%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 3.5 -788Model 89.3% · Market 88.7%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+625 → -7885 model points
Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8pvrn65a757f5fbb85Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betWon7-3PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 16.2% · Market 20.1%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 4.5 -489Model 83.8% · Market 83.0%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+398 → -4895 model points
Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8pvrn65a757f5fbb85Starts TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-3PassUnder 12.5 -660Model 82.3% · Market 86.8%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 12.5 +529Model 17.7% · Market 15.9%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-660 → +5295 model points
Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8pvrn65a757f5fbb85Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betWon7-3PassUnder 6.5 +158Model 34.3% · Market 39.2%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 6.5 -175Model 65.7% · Market 64.2%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+158 → -1755 model points
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8pvrn6de694d2bff40Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassOver 7.5 +109Model 49.6% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 +114Model 49.9% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.1%+109 → +114Logit -0.0457 model points
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8pvrn6de694d2bff40Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassAtlanta Braves -112Model 54.7% · Market 52.8%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassAtlanta Braves +101Model 51.5% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-3.1%-112 → +101Logit -0.1237 model points
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8pvrn6de694d2bff40Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-3PassOver 8.5 +158Model 45.2% · Market 39.2%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 10.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +159Model 45.2% · Market 38.7%Edge +6.5% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-0.5%+158 → +159Logit -0.0232 model points
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8pvrn6de694d2bff40Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-3PassOver 10.5 +331Model 28.8% · Market 23.2%Edge +5.6% · Full Kelly 7.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 10.5 -404Model 71.2% · Market 80.2%Edge -9.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+331 → -4045 model points
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8pvrn6de694d2bff40Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-3PassOver 5.5 -218Model 72.7% · Market 68.6%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 13.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 5.5 +181Model 27.3% · Market 35.6%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-218 → +1815 model points
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8pvrn6de694d2bff40Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-3PassOver 4.5 -430Model 83.1% · Market 81.1%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 10.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 4.5 +331Model 16.9% · Market 23.2%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-430 → +3315 model points
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8pvrn6de694d2bff40Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-3PassOver 3.5 -660Model 88.8% · Market 86.8%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 14.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 11.2% · Market 15.9%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-660 → +5295 model points
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8pvrn6de694d2bff40Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-3PassOver 9.5 +240Model 35.3% · Market 29.4%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 8.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9.5 -306Model 64.7% · Market 75.4%Edge -10.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+240 → -3065 model points
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8pvrn6de694d2bff40Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-3PassUnder 6.5 +134Model 35.4% · Market 43.7%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 6.5 -148Model 64.6% · Market 59.7%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 12.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+134 → -1485 model points
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8pvrn6de694d2bff40Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-3PassOver 11.5 +529Model 21.6% · Market 15.9%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 11.5 -660Model 78.4% · Market 86.8%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+529 → -6605 model points
Paper portfolio & staking results

Paper Bankroll

Daily and cumulative return

The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat. This chart begins on Sep 30, the first settled paper bet in the retained read model; it does not imply that earlier games were replayed.

Current bankroll
$9,800
Cumulative
-2.0%
Best day
-2.0%
Worst day
-2.0%
Settled bets
1

Cumulative bankroll return

+0.2%-0.4%-1.0%-1.6%-2.2%Sep 30Oct 1Oct 2

Daily bankroll return

+2.0%-2.0%Sep 30Oct 1Oct 2

Kelly Performance

Recommended Kelly bets by market

This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.

Moneyline · opening$9,800

-$200 · -2.0%

Bets
1
Record
0-1
Avg. policy Kelly
2.0%

Full Kelly benchmark $9,123 · tracked -$200 on $200 settled paper stake · -100.0% ROI

Moneyline · pregame$9,851

-$149 · -1.5%

Bets
1
Record
0-1
Avg. policy Kelly
1.5%

Full Kelly benchmark $9,403 · tracked -$149 on $149 settled paper stake · -100.0% ROI

Totals · opening$10,000

+$0 · +0.0%

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Avg. policy Kelly
-

Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake

Totals · pregame$10,000

+$0 · +0.0%

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Avg. policy Kelly
-

Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake

Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure

This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.

Both markets priced
4
Both cleared
0
Rate
0.0%