+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
70 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
14 games unified from 34 stored model snapshots on 2026-10-01.
Games14
Settled8
First edge-3.6%
Pregame edge+0.1%
Average CLV+0.1%
Totals CLV+0.2%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padresevt_12a8v0yb07c7e40d37c5fStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Diego Padres -116Model 50.0% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago Cubs +101Model 49.0% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → +101 | -1 model points |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8v0yb07bcac3e5d7faStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +152Model 28.5% · Market 40.2%Edge -11.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +146Model 28.5% · Market 40.7%Edge -12.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.5%+152 → +146Logit 0.020 | 3 model points |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8v0yb07bcac3e5d7faStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 91.7% · Market 88.7%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 26.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 8.3% · Market 13.8%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 5 model points |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8v0yb07bcac3e5d7faStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 28.6% · Market 18.0%Edge +10.6% · Full Kelly 12.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 71.4% · Market 84.9%Edge -13.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 5 model points |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8v0yb07bcac3e5d7faStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassOver 5.5 -263Model 78.5% · Market 72.5%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 22.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +218Model 21.5% · Market 31.4%Edge -10.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 5 model points |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8v0yb07bcac3e5d7faStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 12.7% · Market 20.1%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -489Model 87.3% · Market 83.0%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 25.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 5 model points |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8v0yb07bcac3e5d7faStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 8.5 -148Model 46.6% · Market 60.2%Edge -13.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +134Model 53.4% · Market 43.2%Edge +10.2% · Full Kelly 18.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 5 model points |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8v0yb07bcac3e5d7faStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -251Model 56.6% · Market 71.5%Edge -15.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +208Model 43.4% · Market 32.5%Edge +11.0% · Full Kelly 16.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 5 model points |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8v0yb07bcac3e5d7faStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -360Model 63.3% · Market 78.3%Edge -14.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +296Model 36.7% · Market 25.3%Edge +11.4% · Full Kelly 15.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 5 model points |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_12a8v0yb0e416c3baa0a1Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBoston Red Sox +124Model 44.4% · Market 44.6%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Yankees +101Model 55.4% · Market 49.8%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 11.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → +101 | 50 model points |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8v0yb03a3c24e4580eStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassHouston Astros -116Model 52.1% · Market 53.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassHouston Astros -116Model 52.0% · Market 53.7%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-116 → -116Logit 0.000 | 27 model points |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8v0yb07bcac3e5d7faStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 +101Model 50.1% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +101Model 50.0% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+101 → +101Logit 0.000 | 112 model points |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8v0yb07bcac3e5d7faStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | Pending2-6 | PassPhiladelphia Phillies +119Model 45.3% · Market 45.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAtlanta Braves -106Model 54.9% · Market 51.5%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 7.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -106 | 43 model points |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8v0yb07bcac3e5d7faStarts | TotalOpening line 7Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7 -116Model 51.9% · Market 53.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7 -116Model 51.9% · Market 53.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-116 → -116Logit 0.000 | 21 model points |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
No settled paper bets are available yet. The trend begins after the first recommended stake is graded.
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 1
- Both cleared
- 0
- Rate
- 0.0%