+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
70 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
40 games unified from 115 stored model snapshots on 2026-09-29.
Games40
Settled32
First edge-1.1%
Pregame edge-0.9%
Average CLV-0.1%
Totals CLV-0.0%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padresevt_12a8kqkz267c34c44584eStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 +109Model 49.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -103Model 49.8% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.9%+109 → -103Logit 0.116 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padresevt_12a8kqkz267c34c44584eStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago Cubs +109Model 49.2% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago Cubs +124Model 49.6% · Market 44.6%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.2%+109 → +124Logit -0.129 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padresevt_12a8kqkz267c34c44584eStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-8 | PassOver 6.5 -168Model 63.9% · Market 63.2%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +152Model 36.1% · Market 40.2%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padresevt_12a8kqkz267c34c44584eStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-8 | PassUnder 5.5 +198Model 27.9% · Market 33.6%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -239Model 72.1% · Market 70.5%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padresevt_12a8kqkz267c34c44584eStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-8 | PassOver 10.5 +280Model 28.2% · Market 26.3%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -340Model 71.8% · Market 77.3%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padresevt_12a8kqkz267c34c44584eStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-8 | PassOver 9.5 +208Model 34.6% · Market 32.5%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -251Model 65.4% · Market 71.5%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padresevt_12a8kqkz267c34c44584eStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-8 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 88.5% · Market 88.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 11.5% · Market 13.8%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padresevt_12a8kqkz267c34c44584eStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-8 | PassOver 4.5 -458Model 82.7% · Market 82.1%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +373Model 17.3% · Market 21.1%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padresevt_12a8kqkz267c34c44584eStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-8 | PassOver 11.5 +425Model 21.0% · Market 19.0%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -525Model 79.0% · Market 84.0%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padresevt_12a8kqkz267c34c44584eStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-8 | PassUnder 8.5 -161Model 55.6% · Market 61.7%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +146Model 44.4% · Market 41.7%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_12a8kqkz2b7f57ca5dadfStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Yankees -131Model 57.0% · Market 56.7%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Yankees -126Model 55.3% · Market 55.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%-131 → -126Logit -0.039 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_12a8kqkz2b7f57ca5dadfStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 6.5 +101Model 51.0% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 +114Model 51.0% · Market 46.7%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 8.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.0%+101 → +114Logit -0.121 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_12a8kqkz2b7f57ca5dadfStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-9 | PassOver 5.5 -131Model 70.4% · Market 57.3%Edge +13.2% · Full Kelly 31.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +119Model 29.6% · Market 46.2%Edge -16.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +119 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_12a8kqkz2b7f57ca5dadfStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-9 | PassOver 3.5 -381Model 87.6% · Market 79.2%Edge +8.4% · Full Kelly 40.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +313Model 12.4% · Market 24.2%Edge -11.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_12a8kqkz2b7f57ca5dadfStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-9 | PassUnder 9.5 -489Model 67.5% · Market 83.0%Edge -15.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +398Model 32.5% · Market 20.1%Edge +12.4% · Full Kelly 15.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_12a8kqkz2b7f57ca5dadfStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-9 | PassUnder 10.5 -660Model 73.8% · Market 86.8%Edge -13.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +529Model 26.2% · Market 15.9%Edge +10.3% · Full Kelly 12.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_12a8kqkz2b7f57ca5dadfStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-9 | PassUnder 8.5 -306Model 57.8% · Market 75.4%Edge -17.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +252Model 42.2% · Market 28.4%Edge +13.8% · Full Kelly 19.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_12a8kqkz2b7f57ca5dadfStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-9 | PassOver 4.5 -263Model 81.5% · Market 72.5%Edge +9.0% · Full Kelly 32.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +218Model 18.5% · Market 31.4%Edge -12.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_12a8kqkz2b7f57ca5dadfStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-9 | PassUnder 7.5 -200Model 49.9% · Market 67.1%Edge -17.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +180Model 50.1% · Market 36.2%Edge +13.9% · Full Kelly 22.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8kqkz2ada1defeb0c8Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.2% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.6% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+109 → +105Logit 0.037 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8kqkz2ada1defeb0c8Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago White Sox +119Model 47.9% · Market 45.7%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago White Sox +109Model 49.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.2%+119 → +109Logit 0.088 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8kqkz2ada1defeb0c8Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 41.4% · Market 46.2%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 58.6% · Market 57.8%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -137 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8kqkz2ada1defeb0c8Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 26.4% · Market 24.2%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 73.6% · Market 79.2%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8kqkz2ada1defeb0c8Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 76.9% · Market 76.3%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 23.1% · Market 27.3%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8kqkz2ada1defeb0c8Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 9.0% · Market 10.6%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 91.0% · Market 91.6%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8kqkz2ada1defeb0c8Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 69.6% · Market 69.5%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 30.4% · Market 35.6%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8kqkz2ada1defeb0c8Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 13.8% · Market 16.9%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 86.2% · Market 86.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8kqkz2ada1defeb0c8Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 21.2% · Market 19.0%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 78.8% · Market 84.0%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8kqkz2ada1defeb0c8Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 65.7% · Market 71.5%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 34.3% · Market 32.5%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_12a8kqkz2ada1defeb0c8Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassOver 9.5 +165Model 41.0% · Market 38.2%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 59.0% · Market 65.1%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+165 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8kqkz2c3bd925dc2bcStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +105Model 48.4% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +109Model 48.5% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+105 → +109Logit -0.037 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8kqkz2c3bd925dc2bcStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassPhiladelphia Phillies +165Model 45.3% · Market 37.7%Edge +7.6% · Full Kelly 12.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassPhiladelphia Phillies +158Model 44.7% · Market 38.8%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 9.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+165 → +158Logit 0.043 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8kqkz2c3bd925dc2bcStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassOver 3.5 -489Model 88.7% · Market 83.0%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 33.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +398Model 11.3% · Market 20.1%Edge -8.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8kqkz2c3bd925dc2bcStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -788Model 78.6% · Market 88.7%Edge -10.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +625Model 21.4% · Market 13.8%Edge +7.6% · Full Kelly 8.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8kqkz2c3bd925dc2bcStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassOver 5.5 -175Model 72.5% · Market 63.6%Edge +8.9% · Full Kelly 24.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +146Model 27.5% · Market 40.7%Edge -13.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8kqkz2c3bd925dc2bcStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassUnder 7.5 -155Model 47.2% · Market 61.2%Edge -14.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +140Model 52.8% · Market 42.2%Edge +10.6% · Full Kelly 19.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-155 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8kqkz2c3bd925dc2bcStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassOver 10.5 +398Model 28.6% · Market 20.1%Edge +8.5% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -489Model 71.4% · Market 83.0%Edge -11.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8kqkz2c3bd925dc2bcStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassOver 8.5 +197Model 44.9% · Market 34.1%Edge +10.8% · Full Kelly 16.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -219Model 55.1% · Market 69.1%Edge -14.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+197 → -219 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8kqkz2c3bd925dc2bcStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassUnder 9.5 -381Model 65.0% · Market 79.2%Edge -14.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +313Model 35.0% · Market 24.2%Edge +10.8% · Full Kelly 14.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Bravesevt_12a8kqkz2c3bd925dc2bcStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +266Model 16.9% · Market 27.3%Edge -10.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -340Model 83.1% · Market 77.3%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 25.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
No settled paper bets are available yet. The trend begins after the first recommended stake is graded.
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 4
- Both cleared
- 1
- Rate
- 25.0%