+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
70 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
167 games unified from 404 stored model snapshots on 2026-08-26.
Games167
Settled0
First edge-1.7%
Pregame edge-1.0%
Average CLV-1.1%
Totals CLV-2.2%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nfc3a57Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +124Model 48.0% · Market 44.6%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +114Model 50.0% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.1%+124 → +114Logit 0.084 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nfc3a57Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -137Model 53.3% · Market 57.8%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -116Model 53.5% · Market 53.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.1%-137 → -116Logit -0.167 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nfc3a57Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 11.5 +146Model 23.1% · Market 40.7%Edge -17.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +146Model 23.1% · Market 41.2%Edge -18.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.5%+146 → +146Logit 0.021 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nfc3a57Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -199Model 47.1% · Market 66.6%Edge -19.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +166Model 52.9% · Market 37.6%Edge +15.3% · Full Kelly 24.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nfc3a57Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 12.5 +189Model 18.2% · Market 34.6%Edge -16.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -228Model 81.8% · Market 69.5%Edge +12.3% · Full Kelly 40.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nfc3a57Starts | TotalOpening line 14.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 14.5 +351Model 9.8% · Market 22.2%Edge -12.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 14.5 -430Model 90.2% · Market 81.1%Edge +9.1% · Full Kelly 48.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nfc3a57Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 +101Model 52.3% · Market 49.8%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 5.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 -137Model 37.2% · Market 57.8%Edge -20.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → -137 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nfc3a57Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 4.5 -1428Model 84.2% · Market 93.5%Edge -9.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +1074Model 15.8% · Market 8.5%Edge +7.3% · Full Kelly 8.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1428 → +1074 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nfc3a57Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +373Model 33.7% · Market 21.1%Edge +12.6% · Full Kelly 16.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -458Model 66.3% · Market 82.1%Edge -15.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nfc3a57Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 5.5 +529Model 25.9% · Market 15.9%Edge +10.0% · Full Kelly 11.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -660Model 74.1% · Market 86.8%Edge -12.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nfc3a57Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -290Model 54.9% · Market 74.4%Edge -19.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +240Model 45.1% · Market 29.4%Edge +15.7% · Full Kelly 22.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nfc3a57Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 13.5 -306Model 87.1% · Market 75.4%Edge +11.7% · Full Kelly 47.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +252Model 12.9% · Market 28.4%Edge -15.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nf98360Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBaltimore Orioles -112Model 51.0% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBaltimore Orioles -112Model 56.3% · Market 52.8%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 7.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-112 → -112Logit 0.000 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nf98360Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 47.8% · Market 50.7%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 51.4% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -107 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nf98360Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 15.9% · Market 20.1%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 84.1% · Market 83.0%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nf98360Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 79.5% · Market 78.3%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 5.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 20.5% · Market 25.3%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nf98360Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 88.2% · Market 92.5%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 11.8% · Market 9.6%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +945 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nf98360Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 6.5 -239Model 63.4% · Market 70.5%Edge -7.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +198Model 36.6% · Market 33.6%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nf98360Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 51.0% · Market 47.9%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 51.7% · Market 58.2%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+109 → -137 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nf98360Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 72.4% · Market 70.5%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 27.6% · Market 33.6%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nf98360Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +152Model 34.0% · Market 40.2%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 66.0% · Market 63.2%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 8.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nf98360Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 82.4% · Market 86.8%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 17.6% · Market 15.9%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nf98360Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 71.6% · Market 77.3%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 28.4% · Market 26.3%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n438818Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 49.2% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 49.5% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 5.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+114 → +114Logit 0.000 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n438818Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassTexas Rangers +109Model 48.7% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTexas Rangers +105Model 49.3% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+109 → +105Logit 0.037 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n438818Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.2% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +114Model 42.3% · Market 47.8%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.0%-103 → +114Logit -0.119 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n438818Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 25.6% · Market 23.2%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 74.4% · Market 80.2%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n438818Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 33.4% · Market 30.4%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 66.6% · Market 73.4%Edge -6.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n438818Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 76.2% · Market 75.4%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 23.8% · Market 28.4%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n438818Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 85.7% · Market 84.9%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 14.3% · Market 18.0%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n438818Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 79.5% · Market 84.0%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 20.5% · Market 19.0%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n438818Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 90.6% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 9.4% · Market 11.7%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n438818Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 31.2% · Market 36.6%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 68.8% · Market 67.5%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n438818Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 59.9% · Market 66.1%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 40.1% · Market 37.1%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nb86879Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +101Model 51.3% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +109Model 51.0% · Market 47.9%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%+101 → +109Logit -0.076 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nb86879Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Dodgers -112Model 51.4% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAtlanta Braves +105Model 49.4% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → +105 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nb86879Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 11.5 -322Model 76.9% · Market 76.3%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +266Model 23.1% · Market 27.3%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nb86879Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 10.5% · Market 9.6%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 89.5% · Market 92.5%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+945 → -1236 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nb86879Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 74.1% · Market 79.2%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +313Model 25.9% · Market 24.2%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nb86879Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 12.5 -430Model 81.8% · Market 81.1%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +351Model 18.2% · Market 22.2%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nb86879Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 6.5 -276Model 66.3% · Market 73.4%Edge -7.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +229Model 33.7% · Market 30.4%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nb86879Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -161Model 54.9% · Market 61.7%Edge -6.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +134Model 45.1% · Market 42.7%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nb86879Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +119Model 47.2% · Market 45.7%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -148Model 62.8% · Market 60.2%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 7.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -148 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nb86879Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 4.5 +625Model 15.8% · Market 13.8%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -788Model 84.2% · Market 88.7%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nb86879Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 10.5 +180Model 30.6% · Market 36.2%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -200Model 69.4% · Market 67.1%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 8.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+180 → -200 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nf2c250Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 48.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.3% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%-107 → +105Logit -0.116 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nf2c250Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Mets +129Model 45.1% · Market 43.7%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Mets +129Model 43.7% · Market 43.7%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+129 → +129Logit 0.000 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nf2c250Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 56.7% · Market 57.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 43.3% · Market 46.2%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +119 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nf2c250Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 60.9% · Market 64.2%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +159Model 39.1% · Market 38.7%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +159 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nf2c250Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 19.7% · Market 19.0%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 80.3% · Market 84.0%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nf2c250Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 67.6% · Market 71.5%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 32.4% · Market 32.5%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nf2c250Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 32.1% · Market 34.6%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 67.9% · Market 69.5%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nf2c250Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 24.7% · Market 25.3%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 75.3% · Market 78.3%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nf2c250Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 90.2% · Market 91.6%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 9.8% · Market 10.6%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nf2c250Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 85.1% · Market 86.8%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 14.9% · Market 15.9%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nf2c250Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 75.4% · Market 77.3%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 24.6% · Market 26.3%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n1554ebStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 51.1% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 48.9% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → +101 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n1554ebStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassToronto Blue Jays -142Model 60.5% · Market 58.7%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassKansas City Royals +134Model 42.4% · Market 42.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +134 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n1554ebStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +134Model 46.1% · Market 43.2%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 46.1% · Market 44.6%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.4%+134 → +124Logit 0.059 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n1554ebStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 17.5% · Market 21.1%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 82.5% · Market 82.1%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n1554ebStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 16.3% · Market 14.8%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 83.7% · Market 87.8%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n1554ebStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 77.7% · Market 77.3%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +280Model 22.3% · Market 26.3%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n1554ebStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -161Model 63.8% · Market 62.2%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +146Model 36.2% · Market 41.2%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n1554ebStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -218Model 70.3% · Market 68.6%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +181Model 29.7% · Market 35.6%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n1554ebStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 73.4% · Market 79.2%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +313Model 26.6% · Market 24.2%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n1554ebStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 89.2% · Market 91.6%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 10.8% · Market 10.6%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n1554ebStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 6.5 -263Model 65.4% · Market 72.5%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +218Model 34.6% · Market 31.4%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nb25745Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassHouston Astros +140Model 47.7% · Market 41.7%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 10.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Yankees -126Model 57.8% · Market 55.8%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -126 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nb25745Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +101Model 51.4% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 51.1% · Market 48.8%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+101 → +105Logit -0.039 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nb25745Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -142Model 63.7% · Market 59.2%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 12.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +129Model 36.3% · Market 43.7%Edge -7.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +129 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nb25745Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -168Model 54.1% · Market 62.7%Edge -8.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +140Model 45.9% · Market 41.7%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 7.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nb25745Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 12.5 +331Model 17.6% · Market 23.2%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -404Model 82.4% · Market 80.2%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 11.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nb25745Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 5.5 -430Model 73.6% · Market 81.1%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +351Model 26.4% · Market 22.2%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nb25745Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +240Model 34.4% · Market 29.4%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 7.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -290Model 65.6% · Market 74.4%Edge -8.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nb25745Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 89.3% · Market 93.5%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 10.7% · Market 8.5%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1428 → +1074 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nb25745Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -191Model 70.2% · Market 66.1%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 13.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 29.8% · Market 37.1%Edge -7.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nb25745Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 13.5 -609Model 87.6% · Market 85.9%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 12.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +490Model 12.4% · Market 16.9%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nb25745Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 4.5 -788Model 83.8% · Market 88.7%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +625Model 16.2% · Market 13.8%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nb25745Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 77.6% · Market 75.4%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 8.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 22.4% · Market 28.4%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n644b81Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.1% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +114Model 50.0% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.1%+105 → +114Logit -0.082 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n644b81Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassColorado Rockies +119Model 43.6% · Market 45.7%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals -137Model 56.3% · Market 57.8%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -137 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n644b81Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +109Model 48.5% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -131Model 55.9% · Market 57.3%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+109 → -131 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n644b81Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 11.5 +240Model 29.1% · Market 29.4%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -290Model 70.9% · Market 74.4%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n644b81Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 13.5 -525Model 82.6% · Market 84.0%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +425Model 17.4% · Market 19.0%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n644b81Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +146Model 38.5% · Market 40.7%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -175Model 61.5% · Market 63.6%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n644b81Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 5.5 -430Model 79.0% · Market 81.1%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +351Model 21.0% · Market 22.2%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n644b81Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 12.5 -381Model 76.3% · Market 79.2%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +313Model 23.7% · Market 24.2%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n644b81Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +252Model 27.9% · Market 28.4%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -306Model 72.1% · Market 75.4%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n644b81Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 92.0% · Market 93.5%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 8.0% · Market 8.5%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1428 → +1074 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n644b81Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -183Model 62.7% · Market 65.1%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +165Model 37.3% · Market 38.2%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n644b81Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 4.5 +685Model 12.4% · Market 12.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -869Model 87.6% · Market 89.7%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n9edf46Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -112Model 50.6% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.1%-112 → -103Logit -0.084 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n9edf46Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMiami Marlins +140Model 47.2% · Market 41.7%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 9.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins +109Model 46.1% · Market 47.9%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +6.2%+140 → +109Logit 0.250 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n9edf46Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 16.0% · Market 19.0%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 84.0% · Market 84.0%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n9edf46Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 11.5 -489Model 77.0% · Market 83.0%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +398Model 23.0% · Market 20.1%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n9edf46Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 10.6% · Market 12.7%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 89.4% · Market 89.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n9edf46Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 69.6% · Market 75.4%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 30.4% · Market 28.4%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n9edf46Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 26.1% · Market 30.4%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 73.9% · Market 73.4%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n9edf46Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +189Model 37.0% · Market 34.6%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -228Model 63.0% · Market 69.5%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n9edf46Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +158Model 34.0% · Market 39.2%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -175Model 66.0% · Market 64.2%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n9edf46Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -142Model 53.1% · Market 59.2%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +129Model 46.9% · Market 44.2%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 5.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +129 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n608480Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 52.7% · Market 52.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 52.1% · Market 50.7%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.1%-112 → -103Logit -0.084 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n608480Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Diego Padres -126Model 53.8% · Market 55.8%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Diego Padres -137Model 57.1% · Market 57.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.1%-126 → -137Logit 0.084 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n608480Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 13.1% · Market 19.0%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 86.9% · Market 84.0%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 17.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n608480Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 20.2% · Market 15.9%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 5.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 79.8% · Market 86.8%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n608480Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +198Model 40.6% · Market 33.6%Edge +7.0% · Full Kelly 10.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -239Model 59.4% · Market 70.5%Edge -11.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n608480Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 47.4% · Market 58.2%Edge -10.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 52.6% · Market 45.2%Edge +7.5% · Full Kelly 14.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n608480Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 31.8% · Market 26.3%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 7.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 68.2% · Market 77.3%Edge -9.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n608480Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 76.2% · Market 71.5%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 16.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 23.8% · Market 32.5%Edge -8.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n608480Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 13.6% · Market 9.6%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 86.4% · Market 92.5%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+945 → -1236 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n608480Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 82.7% · Market 79.2%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 16.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 17.3% · Market 24.2%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n608480Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 29.9% · Market 39.2%Edge -9.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 70.1% · Market 64.2%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 17.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66ndb071eStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +101Model 49.9% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +114Model 49.1% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.0%+101 → +114Logit -0.121 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66ndb071eStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSeattle Mariners -103Model 51.3% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSeattle Mariners +114Model 49.5% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%-103 → +114Logit -0.161 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66ndb071eStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 11.5 -660Model 82.5% · Market 86.8%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +529Model 17.5% · Market 15.9%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66ndb071eStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 4.5 -360Model 79.9% · Market 78.3%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 7.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +296Model 20.1% · Market 25.3%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66ndb071eStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 5.5 +166Model 31.6% · Market 37.6%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -199Model 68.4% · Market 66.6%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66ndb071eStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +266Model 30.2% · Market 27.3%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -322Model 69.8% · Market 76.3%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66ndb071eStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 3.5 -564Model 86.5% · Market 84.9%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 10.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +456Model 13.5% · Market 18.0%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66ndb071eStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 10.5 +373Model 24.1% · Market 21.1%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -458Model 75.9% · Market 82.1%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66ndb071eStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -200Model 60.3% · Market 67.1%Edge -6.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +180Model 39.7% · Market 36.2%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66ndb071eStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 +114Model 48.4% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +124Model 47.7% · Market 44.6%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.1%+114 → +124Logit -0.084 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n41f6d6Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCleveland Guardians -137Model 55.4% · Market 57.8%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Angels +119Model 45.2% · Market 45.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +119 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n41f6d6Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 51.1% · Market 48.8%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.4% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → +101 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n41f6d6Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +109Model 47.4% · Market 47.9%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 39.9% · Market 39.2%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -8.6%+109 → +158Logit -0.352 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n41f6d6Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 10.5 +189Model 33.7% · Market 34.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +216Model 33.2% · Market 32.1%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.6%+189 → +216Logit -0.117 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n41f6d6Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 79.3% · Market 82.1%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 20.7% · Market 21.1%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n41f6d6Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 13.5 -719Model 85.0% · Market 87.8%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +574Model 15.0% · Market 14.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n41f6d6Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 74.1% · Market 77.3%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +280Model 25.9% · Market 26.3%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n41f6d6Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 6.5 -239Model 69.0% · Market 70.5%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +198Model 31.0% · Market 33.6%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n41f6d6Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 9.3% · Market 9.6%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 90.7% · Market 92.5%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+945 → -1236 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n41f6d6Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 76.4% · Market 77.3%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 23.6% · Market 26.3%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n41f6d6Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -148Model 58.0% · Market 59.7%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 42.0% · Market 44.6%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n41f6d6Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 14.2% · Market 14.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 85.8% · Market 87.8%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66neac066Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 51.0% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +105Model 48.6% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → +105 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66neac066Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds +105Model 47.1% · Market 48.8%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants -121Model 59.6% · Market 54.8%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -121 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66neac066Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 5.5 -228Model 65.6% · Market 69.5%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +189Model 34.4% · Market 34.6%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66neac066Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 4.5 +351Model 22.2% · Market 22.2%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -430Model 77.8% · Market 81.1%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66neac066Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 84.9% · Market 86.8%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 15.1% · Market 15.9%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66neac066Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 15.2% · Market 18.0%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 84.8% · Market 84.9%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66neac066Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -168Model 63.6% · Market 63.2%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +152Model 36.4% · Market 40.2%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66neac066Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -276Model 72.9% · Market 73.4%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +229Model 27.1% · Market 30.4%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66neac066Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 12.5 +685Model 11.4% · Market 12.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -869Model 88.6% · Market 89.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66neac066Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +140Model 43.5% · Market 41.7%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -155Model 56.5% · Market 61.7%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -155 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66neac066Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 10.5 +313Model 21.3% · Market 24.2%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -381Model 78.7% · Market 79.2%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n04184eStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 50.5% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → -103 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n04184eStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassArizona Diamondbacks -107Model 51.8% · Market 51.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassArizona Diamondbacks -103Model 50.0% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%-107 → -103Logit -0.038 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n04184eStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +152Model 42.9% · Market 40.2%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 57.1% · Market 63.6%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n04184eStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 71.9% · Market 79.2%Edge -7.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 28.1% · Market 24.2%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 5.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n04184eStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 13.0% · Market 15.9%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 87.0% · Market 86.8%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n04184eStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 22.7% · Market 20.1%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 77.3% · Market 83.0%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n04184eStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 8.4% · Market 10.6%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 91.6% · Market 91.6%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n04184eStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 71.1% · Market 69.5%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 28.9% · Market 34.6%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n04184eStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 39.6% · Market 45.2%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 60.4% · Market 58.2%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -137 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n04184eStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 63.9% · Market 70.5%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 36.1% · Market 33.6%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n04184eStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 21.8% · Market 27.3%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 78.2% · Market 76.3%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 7.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n11257dStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.0% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -103Model 50.2% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -103 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n11257dStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers -116Model 52.6% · Market 53.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers -121Model 55.0% · Market 54.8%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%-116 → -121Logit 0.042 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n11257dStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -168Model 52.7% · Market 63.2%Edge -10.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +152Model 47.3% · Market 39.7%Edge +7.6% · Full Kelly 12.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n11257dStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 10.3% · Market 13.8%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 89.7% · Market 88.7%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 8.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n11257dStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +146Model 33.5% · Market 40.7%Edge -7.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -175Model 66.5% · Market 63.6%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 7.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n11257dStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -360Model 69.2% · Market 78.3%Edge -9.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +296Model 30.8% · Market 25.3%Edge +5.6% · Full Kelly 7.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n11257dStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 11.5 -489Model 76.7% · Market 83.0%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +398Model 23.3% · Market 20.1%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n11257dStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 5.5 +208Model 25.7% · Market 32.5%Edge -6.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -263Model 74.3% · Market 72.5%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 6.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n11257dStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +218Model 37.4% · Market 31.5%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 8.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -240Model 62.6% · Market 71.5%Edge -8.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n11257dStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 12.5 +625Model 18.4% · Market 13.8%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -788Model 81.6% · Market 88.7%Edge -7.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n11257dStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 4.5 -489Model 84.3% · Market 83.0%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 7.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 15.7% · Market 20.1%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
No settled paper bets are available yet. The trend begins after the first recommended stake is graded.
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 15
- Both cleared
- 0
- Rate
- 0.0%