+$268 · +2.7%
- Bets
- 1
- Record
- 1-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 2.0%
Full Kelly benchmark $11,232 · tracked $268 on $200 settled paper stake · +134.0% ROI
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
70 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
162 games unified from 386 stored model snapshots on 2026-08-25.
Games162
Settled1
First edge-1.7%
Pregame edge-0.8%
Average CLV-0.2%
Totals CLV-0.8%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n35f8ccStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.5% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 50.2% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+105 → +101Logit 0.039 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n35f8ccStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds -107Model 50.4% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds -107Model 50.2% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-107 → -107Logit 0.000 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n35f8ccStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 48.3% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +124Model 44.5% · Market 44.6%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.1%+101 → +124Logit -0.205 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n35f8ccStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 6.5 -191Model 64.0% · Market 65.6%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +159Model 36.0% · Market 38.6%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +159 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n35f8ccStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 12.5 +529Model 16.4% · Market 15.9%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -660Model 83.6% · Market 86.8%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n35f8ccStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -322Model 71.8% · Market 76.3%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +266Model 28.2% · Market 27.3%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n35f8ccStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 17.2% · Market 19.0%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 82.8% · Market 84.0%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n35f8ccStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 27.8% · Market 30.4%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 72.2% · Market 73.4%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n35f8ccStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -209Model 65.4% · Market 68.1%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +188Model 34.6% · Market 35.2%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-209 → +188 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n35f8ccStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 11.5% · Market 13.8%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 88.5% · Market 88.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n35f8ccStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 11.5 -489Model 79.0% · Market 83.0%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +398Model 21.0% · Market 20.1%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n19d842Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 51.2% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +114Model 50.6% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 7.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%-103 → +114Logit -0.161 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n19d842Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSeattle Mariners -126Model 53.2% · Market 55.8%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassPhiladelphia Phillies -103Model 48.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-126 → -103 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n19d842Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 68.2% · Market 66.6%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 7.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +180Model 31.8% · Market 36.2%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n19d842Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 81.2% · Market 80.2%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 18.8% · Market 23.2%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n19d842Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 87.2% · Market 90.6%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 12.8% · Market 11.7%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n19d842Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 30.2% · Market 28.4%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 69.8% · Market 75.4%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n19d842Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 41.5% · Market 47.3%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -126Model 58.5% · Market 56.2%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -126 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n19d842Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 61.3% · Market 67.5%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 38.7% · Market 36.6%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n19d842Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 19.0% · Market 18.0%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 81.0% · Market 84.9%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n19d842Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 74.4% · Market 73.4%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 25.6% · Market 30.4%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n616b18Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -112Model 52.2% · Market 52.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 +105Model 51.6% · Market 48.8%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%-112 → +105Logit -0.162 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n616b18Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +124Model 43.6% · Market 44.6%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +129Model 42.5% · Market 43.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+124 → +129Logit -0.039 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n616b18Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +165Model 47.5% · Market 38.2%Edge +9.3% · Full Kelly 15.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +159Model 47.5% · Market 38.7%Edge +8.8% · Full Kelly 14.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.5%+165 → +159Logit 0.022 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n616b18Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -116Model 52.6% · Market 53.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +119Model 35.9% · Market 47.2%Edge -11.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → +119 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n616b18Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -263Model 60.1% · Market 72.5%Edge -12.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +218Model 39.9% · Market 31.4%Edge +8.5% · Full Kelly 12.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n616b18Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 11.5 -191Model 72.1% · Market 65.6%Edge +6.5% · Full Kelly 18.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +159Model 27.9% · Market 38.6%Edge -10.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +159 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n616b18Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 12.5 +198Model 22.5% · Market 33.6%Edge -11.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -239Model 77.5% · Market 70.5%Edge +7.0% · Full Kelly 23.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n616b18Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 4.5 -1428Model 86.8% · Market 93.5%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +1074Model 13.2% · Market 8.5%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 5.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1428 → +1074 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n616b18Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 3.5 -2042Model 91.4% · Market 95.3%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1464Model 8.6% · Market 6.4%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-2042 → +1464 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n616b18Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 6.5 -430Model 70.8% · Market 81.1%Edge -10.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +351Model 29.2% · Market 22.2%Edge +7.0% · Full Kelly 9.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n616b18Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 13.5 -340Model 83.5% · Market 77.3%Edge +6.2% · Full Kelly 27.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +280Model 16.5% · Market 26.3%Edge -9.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n616b18Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 5.5 -660Model 77.9% · Market 86.8%Edge -9.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +529Model 22.1% · Market 15.9%Edge +6.2% · Full Kelly 7.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n7b75b0Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.4% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 50.1% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%-103 → +101Logit -0.040 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n7b75b0Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassArizona Diamondbacks -103Model 52.3% · Market 50.7%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassArizona Diamondbacks -107Model 52.0% · Market 51.7%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%-103 → -107Logit 0.038 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n7b75b0Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 61.6% · Market 57.7%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 11.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 38.4% · Market 45.2%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n7b75b0Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 27.9% · Market 35.6%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 72.1% · Market 68.6%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 11.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n7b75b0Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 70.7% · Market 79.2%Edge -8.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 29.3% · Market 24.2%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n7b75b0Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 55.8% · Market 64.2%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 44.2% · Market 39.2%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 8.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n7b75b0Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 76.2% · Market 84.0%Edge -7.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 23.8% · Market 19.0%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n7b75b0Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 87.6% · Market 85.9%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 12.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 12.4% · Market 16.9%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n7b75b0Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 79.0% · Market 76.3%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 11.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 21.0% · Market 28.4%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n7b75b0Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 62.6% · Market 71.5%Edge -8.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 37.4% · Market 32.5%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 7.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n7b75b0Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 92.0% · Market 91.6%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 8.0% · Market 10.6%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nda8b5fStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Diego Padres -112Model 52.3% · Market 52.8%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Diego Padres -137Model 58.1% · Market 57.8%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +5.0%-112 → -137Logit 0.202 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nda8b5fStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -116Model 51.1% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +114Model 49.1% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → +114 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nda8b5fStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 6.5 -148Model 59.7% · Market 60.2%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -154Model 59.7% · Market 60.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.6%-148 → -154Logit 0.023 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nda8b5fStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 86.5% · Market 86.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 13.5% · Market 15.9%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nda8b5fStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 5.5 +181Model 31.5% · Market 35.6%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -218Model 68.5% · Market 68.6%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nda8b5fStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 11.5 +490Model 17.5% · Market 16.9%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -609Model 82.5% · Market 85.9%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nda8b5fStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +240Model 30.2% · Market 29.4%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -290Model 69.8% · Market 74.4%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nda8b5fStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +158Model 39.7% · Market 39.2%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -175Model 60.3% · Market 64.2%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nda8b5fStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 4.5 +351Model 20.0% · Market 22.2%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -430Model 80.0% · Market 81.1%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nda8b5fStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -381Model 75.9% · Market 79.2%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +313Model 24.1% · Market 24.2%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n3d1951Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +124Model 48.1% · Market 44.6%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +114Model 48.1% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.1%+124 → +114Logit 0.084 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n3d1951Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels +114Model 44.8% · Market 46.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Angels +129Model 42.3% · Market 43.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.1%+114 → +129Logit -0.124 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n3d1951Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -191Model 53.2% · Market 66.1%Edge -12.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -199Model 53.2% · Market 66.6%Edge -13.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.5%-191 → -199Logit 0.023 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n3d1951Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -112Model 50.2% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +129Model 54.6% · Market 44.2%Edge +10.5% · Full Kelly 19.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → +129 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n3d1951Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 11.5 -660Model 77.1% · Market 86.8%Edge -9.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +529Model 22.9% · Market 15.9%Edge +7.0% · Full Kelly 8.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n3d1951Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 4.5 +296Model 16.0% · Market 25.3%Edge -9.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -381Model 84.0% · Market 79.2%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 23.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n3d1951Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 3.5 +490Model 10.6% · Market 16.9%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -609Model 89.4% · Market 85.9%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 25.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n3d1951Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 10.5 +351Model 30.4% · Market 22.2%Edge +8.2% · Full Kelly 10.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -430Model 69.6% · Market 81.1%Edge -11.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n3d1951Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +252Model 36.9% · Market 28.4%Edge +8.5% · Full Kelly 11.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -306Model 63.1% · Market 75.4%Edge -12.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n3d1951Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 5.5 -199Model 73.9% · Market 66.6%Edge +7.3% · Full Kelly 22.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +166Model 26.1% · Market 37.6%Edge -11.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66na69f41Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 50.1% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.1% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+109 → +105Logit 0.037 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66na69f41Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBaltimore Orioles +105Model 49.3% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBaltimore Orioles +109Model 45.8% · Market 47.9%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+105 → +109Logit -0.037 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66na69f41Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 51.8% · Market 48.8%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -131Model 54.9% · Market 57.7%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +8.9%+105 → -131Logit 0.359 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66na69f41Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 28.8% · Market 30.4%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 71.2% · Market 73.4%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66na69f41Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 64.8% · Market 66.1%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 35.2% · Market 37.1%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66na69f41Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 16.8% · Market 16.9%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 83.2% · Market 85.9%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66na69f41Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 72.7% · Market 76.3%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 27.3% · Market 28.4%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66na69f41Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 13.5 -869Model 88.3% · Market 89.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +685Model 11.7% · Market 12.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66na69f41Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 35.4% · Market 35.6%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 64.6% · Market 68.6%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66na69f41Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 83.2% · Market 84.9%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 16.8% · Market 18.0%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66na69f41Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 78.5% · Market 81.1%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 21.5% · Market 22.2%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66na69f41Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 11.2% · Market 11.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 88.8% · Market 90.6%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66ne6ba14Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.2% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +105Model 50.0% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → +105 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66ne6ba14Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassTexas Rangers +101Model 49.4% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago White Sox -107Model 55.5% · Market 51.7%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 7.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → -107 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66ne6ba14Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +152Model 45.7% · Market 40.2%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 10.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -168Model 54.3% · Market 63.2%Edge -8.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66ne6ba14Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -251Model 64.2% · Market 71.6%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +226Model 35.8% · Market 31.6%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 7.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +226 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66ne6ba14Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +140Model 34.9% · Market 41.7%Edge -6.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -168Model 65.1% · Market 62.7%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66ne6ba14Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 5.5 +208Model 26.8% · Market 32.5%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -251Model 73.2% · Market 71.5%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66ne6ba14Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 4.5 -458Model 83.5% · Market 82.1%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 8.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +373Model 16.5% · Market 21.1%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66ne6ba14Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 12.5 -719Model 82.8% · Market 87.8%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +574Model 17.2% · Market 14.8%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66ne6ba14Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 11.5 -489Model 78.0% · Market 83.0%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +398Model 22.0% · Market 20.1%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66ne6ba14Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 10.5 +280Model 29.4% · Market 26.3%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -340Model 70.6% · Market 77.3%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66ne6ba14Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 10.9% · Market 14.8%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -719Model 89.1% · Market 87.8%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 10.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nc54ae1Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -116Model 51.2% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.8% · Market 48.8%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.9%-116 → +105Logit -0.197 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nc54ae1Starts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Won3-4Paper stake $200 · P/L $268 | Paper betAtlanta Braves +134Model 48.0% · Market 42.7%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 9.2%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betAtlanta Braves +134Model 48.0% · Market 42.7%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 9.2%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%+134 → +134Logit 0.000 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nc54ae1Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 11.5 -322Model 76.2% · Market 76.3%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +266Model 23.8% · Market 27.3%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nc54ae1Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 5.5 +313Model 25.4% · Market 24.2%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 74.6% · Market 79.2%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nc54ae1Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 4.5 +625Model 15.5% · Market 13.8%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -788Model 84.5% · Market 88.7%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nc54ae1Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 6.5 -251Model 66.9% · Market 71.5%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +208Model 33.1% · Market 32.5%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nc54ae1Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 12.5 -430Model 81.1% · Market 81.1%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +351Model 18.9% · Market 22.2%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nc54ae1Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 89.8% · Market 92.5%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 10.2% · Market 9.6%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +945 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nc54ae1Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +140Model 38.0% · Market 42.2%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -155Model 62.0% · Market 61.2%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -155 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nc54ae1Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -218Model 68.6% · Market 68.6%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +181Model 31.4% · Market 35.6%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nc54ae1Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +134Model 44.4% · Market 42.7%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -148Model 55.6% · Market 60.7%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n9354dcStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Mets +129Model 44.6% · Market 43.7%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Mets +140Model 43.7% · Market 41.7%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%+129 → +140Logit -0.082 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n9354dcStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 50.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +101Model 50.2% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → +101 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n9354dcStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -168Model 52.7% · Market 63.2%Edge -10.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +152Model 47.3% · Market 39.7%Edge +7.6% · Full Kelly 12.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n9354dcStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 10.4% · Market 14.8%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -719Model 89.6% · Market 87.8%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 14.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n9354dcStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 5.5 +198Model 25.8% · Market 33.6%Edge -7.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -239Model 74.2% · Market 70.5%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 12.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n9354dcStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 10.5 +296Model 30.8% · Market 25.3%Edge +5.6% · Full Kelly 7.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -360Model 69.2% · Market 78.3%Edge -9.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n9354dcStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -263Model 62.6% · Market 72.5%Edge -9.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +218Model 37.4% · Market 31.4%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 8.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n9354dcStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +146Model 33.6% · Market 41.2%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -161Model 66.4% · Market 62.2%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 12.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n9354dcStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 4.5 -458Model 84.2% · Market 82.1%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 12.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +373Model 15.8% · Market 21.1%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n9354dcStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 11.5 -525Model 76.7% · Market 84.0%Edge -7.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +425Model 23.3% · Market 19.0%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66nac510cStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.2% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.5% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.8%-107 → +109Logit -0.154 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66nac510cStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassToronto Blue Jays -116Model 55.3% · Market 53.7%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassToronto Blue Jays -131Model 54.7% · Market 56.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.0%-116 → -131Logit 0.122 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66nac510cStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 40.2% · Market 39.2%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 59.8% · Market 65.1%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66nac510cStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 25.7% · Market 25.3%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 74.3% · Market 78.3%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66nac510cStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 42.1% · Market 45.7%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 57.9% · Market 57.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -131 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66nac510cStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 23.6% · Market 26.3%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 76.4% · Market 77.3%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66nac510cStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 79.4% · Market 84.9%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 20.6% · Market 18.0%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66nac510cStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 9.3% · Market 10.6%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 90.7% · Market 91.6%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66nac510cStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 85.8% · Market 85.9%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 14.2% · Market 16.9%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66nac510cStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 33.5% · Market 33.6%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 66.5% · Market 70.5%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66nac510cStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 68.9% · Market 69.5%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 31.1% · Market 34.6%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nab8b46Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Yankees -131Model 55.4% · Market 56.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Yankees -148Model 60.1% · Market 59.7%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.0%-131 → -148Logit 0.122 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nab8b46Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +109Model 51.6% · Market 47.9%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 7.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 51.0% · Market 48.8%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+109 → +105Logit 0.037 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nab8b46Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 10.5 +180Model 30.2% · Market 36.7%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -200Model 69.8% · Market 67.1%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 9.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+180 → -200 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nab8b46Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +229Model 34.1% · Market 30.4%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -276Model 65.9% · Market 73.4%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nab8b46Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 5.5 -404Model 73.9% · Market 80.2%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +331Model 26.1% · Market 23.2%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nab8b46Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 13.5 -609Model 87.4% · Market 85.9%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 10.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +490Model 12.6% · Market 16.9%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nab8b46Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 22.8% · Market 28.4%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 77.2% · Market 75.4%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 7.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nab8b46Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 10.6% · Market 8.5%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 89.4% · Market 93.5%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1074 → -1428 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nab8b46Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 4.5 -788Model 84.0% · Market 88.7%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +625Model 16.0% · Market 13.8%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nab8b46Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +114Model 46.9% · Market 46.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -155Model 63.3% · Market 61.2%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -155 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nab8b46Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +140Model 45.5% · Market 41.7%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -168Model 54.5% · Market 62.7%Edge -8.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nab8b46Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 12.5 -404Model 82.1% · Market 80.2%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 9.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +331Model 17.9% · Market 23.2%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n104623Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -112Model 49.5% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.1%-112 → -103Logit -0.084 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n104623Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals -137Model 55.9% · Market 57.8%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals -161Model 60.9% · Market 61.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.9%-137 → -161Logit 0.161 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n104623Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 41.7% · Market 45.2%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 41.7% · Market 44.6%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%+124 → +124Logit -0.021 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n104623Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +198Model 30.6% · Market 33.6%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -239Model 69.4% · Market 70.5%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n104623Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -228Model 66.0% · Market 69.5%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +189Model 34.0% · Market 34.6%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n104623Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 59.3% · Market 63.2%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +152Model 40.7% · Market 40.2%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n104623Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 26.2% · Market 25.3%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 73.8% · Market 78.3%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n104623Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 23.2% · Market 26.3%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -360Model 76.8% · Market 78.3%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n104623Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 90.9% · Market 91.6%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 9.1% · Market 10.6%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n104623Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 21.0% · Market 19.0%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 79.0% · Market 84.0%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n104623Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 13.9% · Market 15.9%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 86.1% · Market 86.8%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n4ce042Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 49.8% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 49.6% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.8%-107 → +109Logit -0.154 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n4ce042Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers +109Model 52.4% · Market 47.9%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 8.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers +109Model 51.9% · Market 47.9%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 7.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+109 → +109Logit 0.000 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n4ce042Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +124Model 48.9% · Market 44.6%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 7.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -137Model 51.1% · Market 58.2%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -137 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n4ce042Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 85.1% · Market 84.9%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 14.9% · Market 18.0%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n4ce042Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 11.5 +398Model 24.6% · Market 20.1%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 5.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -489Model 75.4% · Market 83.0%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n4ce042Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 75.5% · Market 73.4%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 7.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 24.5% · Market 30.4%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n4ce042Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 9.8% · Market 12.7%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 90.2% · Market 89.7%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n4ce042Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 6.5 -183Model 67.9% · Market 65.1%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +165Model 32.1% · Market 38.2%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n4ce042Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -340Model 67.7% · Market 77.3%Edge -9.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +280Model 32.3% · Market 26.3%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 8.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n4ce042Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +189Model 38.9% · Market 34.6%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -228Model 61.1% · Market 69.5%Edge -8.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n8e6769Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 50.6% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +114Model 49.5% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → +114 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n8e6769Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMiami Marlins +119Model 48.5% · Market 45.7%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins +129Model 46.3% · Market 43.7%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%+119 → +129Logit -0.081 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n8e6769Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 4.5 +351Model 18.3% · Market 22.2%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -430Model 81.7% · Market 81.1%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n8e6769Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -290Model 67.0% · Market 74.4%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +240Model 33.0% · Market 29.4%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 5.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n8e6769Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 11.5 -609Model 80.3% · Market 85.9%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +490Model 19.7% · Market 16.9%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n8e6769Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 5.5 +189Model 29.3% · Market 34.6%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -228Model 70.7% · Market 69.5%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n8e6769Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -404Model 73.3% · Market 80.2%Edge -6.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +331Model 26.7% · Market 23.2%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n8e6769Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +158Model 42.7% · Market 39.2%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -175Model 57.3% · Market 64.2%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n8e6769Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +129Model 37.6% · Market 44.2%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -142Model 62.4% · Market 59.2%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n8e6769Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 12.3% · Market 14.8%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -719Model 87.7% · Market 87.8%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat. This chart begins on Aug 25, the first settled paper bet in the retained read model; it does not imply that earlier games were replayed.
- Current bankroll
- $10,268
- Cumulative
- +2.7%
- Best day
- +2.7%
- Worst day
- +2.7%
- Settled bets
- 1
Cumulative bankroll return
Daily bankroll return
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
+$268 · +2.7%
- Bets
- 1
- Record
- 1-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 2.0%
Full Kelly benchmark $11,232 · tracked $268 on $200 settled paper stake · +134.0% ROI
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 15
- Both cleared
- 0
- Rate
- 0.0%