+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
70 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
76 games unified from 186 stored model snapshots on 2026-08-27.
Games76
Settled0
First edge-1.2%
Pregame edge-1.3%
Average CLV-0.4%
Totals CLV-1.8%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n5980e5Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassArizona Diamondbacks +101Model 54.6% · Market 49.8%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 9.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassArizona Diamondbacks -121Model 55.2% · Market 54.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +5.0%+101 → -121Logit 0.201 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n5980e5Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -121Model 51.9% · Market 54.8%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.1% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-121 → +101 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n5980e5Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.8% · Market 48.8%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 44.6% · Market 46.8%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%+105 → +119Logit -0.081 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n5980e5Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 10.5% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 89.5% · Market 90.6%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n5980e5Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 62.8% · Market 66.1%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 37.2% · Market 37.1%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n5980e5Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 18.3% · Market 18.0%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 81.7% · Market 84.9%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n5980e5Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 84.2% · Market 84.9%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 15.8% · Market 18.0%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n5980e5Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 30.6% · Market 30.4%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 69.4% · Market 73.4%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n5980e5Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 66.3% · Market 67.5%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 33.7% · Market 36.6%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n5980e5Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 23.2% · Market 23.2%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 76.8% · Market 80.2%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n5980e5Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 25.9% · Market 28.4%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 74.1% · Market 75.4%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nf88264Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +105Model 48.8% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 +105Model 52.1% · Market 48.8%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → +105 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nf88264Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Dodgers -112Model 48.7% · Market 52.8%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Dodgers -103Model 49.7% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.1%-112 → -103Logit -0.084 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nf88264Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 +101Model 49.5% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -200Model 44.1% · Market 67.1%Edge -23.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → -200 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nf88264Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 11.5 +756Model 24.0% · Market 11.7%Edge +12.3% · Full Kelly 14.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -967Model 76.0% · Market 90.6%Edge -14.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nf88264Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +250Model 48.2% · Market 29.0%Edge +19.2% · Full Kelly 27.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -279Model 51.8% · Market 74.0%Edge -22.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+250 → -279 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nf88264Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -458Model 61.8% · Market 82.1%Edge -20.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +373Model 38.2% · Market 21.1%Edge +17.1% · Full Kelly 21.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nf88264Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -660Model 68.4% · Market 86.8%Edge -18.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +529Model 31.6% · Market 15.9%Edge +15.7% · Full Kelly 18.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nf88264Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 3.5 +351Model 10.0% · Market 22.2%Edge -12.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -430Model 90.0% · Market 81.1%Edge +8.8% · Full Kelly 46.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nf88264Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 5.5 -154Model 74.9% · Market 60.6%Edge +14.3% · Full Kelly 36.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +129Model 25.1% · Market 43.7%Edge -18.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-154 → +129 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nf88264Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 4.5 -290Model 84.8% · Market 74.4%Edge +10.4% · Full Kelly 40.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +240Model 15.2% · Market 29.4%Edge -14.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at New York Metsevt_129ymh66na2d639Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +114Model 48.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +119Model 48.8% · Market 45.7%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%+114 → +119Logit -0.043 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at New York Metsevt_129ymh66na2d639Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Mets +152Model 44.8% · Market 39.7%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 8.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Mets +166Model 43.9% · Market 37.6%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 10.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.1%+152 → +166Logit -0.088 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at New York Metsevt_129ymh66na2d639Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -103Model 48.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -137Model 50.3% · Market 58.2%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -137 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at New York Metsevt_129ymh66na2d639Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 4.5 -381Model 81.3% · Market 79.2%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 10.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +313Model 18.7% · Market 24.2%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at New York Metsevt_129ymh66na2d639Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -430Model 74.0% · Market 81.1%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +351Model 26.0% · Market 22.2%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at New York Metsevt_129ymh66na2d639Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 11.5 -660Model 80.9% · Market 86.8%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +529Model 19.1% · Market 15.9%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at New York Metsevt_129ymh66na2d639Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +173Model 42.0% · Market 37.1%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 8.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -191Model 58.0% · Market 66.1%Edge -8.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at New York Metsevt_129ymh66na2d639Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 3.5 +456Model 12.6% · Market 18.0%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -564Model 87.4% · Market 84.9%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 16.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at New York Metsevt_129ymh66na2d639Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -322Model 67.7% · Market 76.3%Edge -8.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +266Model 32.3% · Market 27.3%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at New York Metsevt_129ymh66na2d639Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 5.5 +173Model 29.8% · Market 36.6%Edge -6.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -208Model 70.2% · Market 67.5%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 8.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n429b3aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassToronto Blue Jays -112Model 54.7% · Market 52.8%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassToronto Blue Jays -107Model 56.0% · Market 51.7%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 8.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%-112 → -107Logit -0.046 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n429b3aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.2% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.5% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%-107 → -103Logit -0.038 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n429b3aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 58.4% · Market 57.8%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 58.3% · Market 58.2%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.4%-137 → -137Logit 0.018 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n429b3aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 69.4% · Market 69.5%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 30.6% · Market 34.6%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n429b3aStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 9.1% · Market 10.6%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 90.9% · Market 91.6%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n429b3aStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 23.2% · Market 27.3%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 76.8% · Market 76.3%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n429b3aStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 40.8% · Market 39.2%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 59.2% · Market 64.2%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n429b3aStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 65.9% · Market 71.5%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 34.1% · Market 32.5%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n429b3aStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 13.9% · Market 16.9%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 86.1% · Market 85.9%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n429b3aStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 79.0% · Market 83.0%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 21.0% · Market 20.1%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n429b3aStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 73.7% · Market 79.2%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 26.3% · Market 24.2%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n07fd8fStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -112Model 48.5% · Market 52.8%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 48.9% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -6.1%-112 → +114Logit -0.244 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n07fd8fStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Yankees -137Model 58.3% · Market 57.8%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Yankees -161Model 62.9% · Market 61.7%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.9%-137 → -161Logit 0.161 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n07fd8fStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 46.3% · Market 45.7%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 46.3% · Market 46.2%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.5%+119 → +119Logit 0.021 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n07fd8fStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 89.1% · Market 91.6%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 10.9% · Market 10.6%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n07fd8fStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 82.6% · Market 84.0%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 17.4% · Market 19.0%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n07fd8fStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 73.3% · Market 76.3%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 26.7% · Market 27.3%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n07fd8fStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 22.2% · Market 23.2%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 77.8% · Market 80.2%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n07fd8fStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 70.5% · Market 72.5%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 29.5% · Market 31.4%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n07fd8fStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 16.4% · Market 16.9%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 83.6% · Market 85.9%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n07fd8fStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 65.2% · Market 69.5%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 34.8% · Market 34.6%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n07fd8fStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 64.0% · Market 65.1%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +165Model 36.0% · Market 38.2%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n32d640Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBaltimore Orioles +101Model 50.7% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +105Model 46.5% · Market 48.8%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → +105 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n32d640Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.6% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 50.1% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+105 → +109Logit -0.037 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n32d640Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 48.3% · Market 51.7%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -121Model 54.5% · Market 55.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -121 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n32d640Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 78.2% · Market 80.2%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 21.8% · Market 23.2%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n32d640Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 88.9% · Market 90.6%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 11.1% · Market 11.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n32d640Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 82.9% · Market 84.9%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 17.1% · Market 18.0%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n32d640Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 27.1% · Market 28.4%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 72.9% · Market 75.4%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n32d640Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 64.4% · Market 66.1%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 35.6% · Market 37.1%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n32d640Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 70.9% · Market 73.4%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 29.1% · Market 30.4%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n32d640Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 64.9% · Market 67.5%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 35.1% · Market 36.6%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n32d640Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 83.3% · Market 84.9%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 16.7% · Market 18.0%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nd2f45fStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals -116Model 60.4% · Market 53.7%Edge +6.7% · Full Kelly 14.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals -142Model 64.2% · Market 58.7%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 13.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +5.0%-116 → -142Logit 0.202 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nd2f45fStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -116Model 51.8% · Market 53.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 +101Model 51.4% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%-116 → +101Logit -0.158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nd2f45fStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +158Model 45.8% · Market 39.7%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 11.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -168Model 54.2% · Market 63.2%Edge -8.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nd2f45fStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 13.5 +331Model 17.6% · Market 23.2%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -404Model 82.4% · Market 80.2%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 11.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nd2f45fStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 11.5 -208Model 70.6% · Market 67.5%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 9.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +173Model 29.4% · Market 36.6%Edge -7.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nd2f45fStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 3.5 -2580Model 92.0% · Market 96.3%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1775Model 8.0% · Market 5.3%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-2580 → +1775 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nd2f45fStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 10.5 +124Model 37.5% · Market 45.2%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -137Model 62.5% · Market 58.2%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 11.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -137 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nd2f45fStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +331Model 27.8% · Market 23.2%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -404Model 72.2% · Market 80.2%Edge -7.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nd2f45fStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 5.5 -609Model 79.1% · Market 85.9%Edge -6.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +490Model 20.9% · Market 16.9%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nd2f45fStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 12.5 -263Model 76.1% · Market 72.5%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 13.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +218Model 23.9% · Market 31.4%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nd2f45fStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -239Model 61.6% · Market 70.5%Edge -8.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +198Model 38.4% · Market 33.6%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 7.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nd2f45fStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 4.5 +945Model 12.3% · Market 9.6%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -1236Model 87.7% · Market 92.5%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+945 → -1236 | 2 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
No settled paper bets are available yet. The trend begins after the first recommended stake is graded.
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 7
- Both cleared
- 0
- Rate
- 0.0%