Baseball · Game notebook · 2026-08-26
Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres
01 · Forecast
What did we believe?
No current actionable forecast is substituted for this game. The recorded checkpoints below are the historical evidence.
Moneyline · 5 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-odds2025-servable-2026-v15.0.0
San Diego Padres · 53.8%-126 at kalshi · recorded edge -1.9%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-odds2025-servable-2026-v15.0.0
San Diego Padres · 57.1%-137 at kalshi · recorded edge -0.7%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 8.5 · 5 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-odds2025-servable-2026-v15.0.0
Under 8.5 · 52.7%-112 at polymarket · recorded edge -0.1%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-odds2025-servable-2026-v15.0.0
Under 8.5 · 52.1%-103 at polymarket · recorded edge +1.4%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 12.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-odds2025-servable-2026-v15.0.0
Over 12.5 · 13.1%+425 at kalshi · recorded edge -5.9%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-odds2025-servable-2026-v15.0.0
Under 12.5 · 86.9%-525 at kalshi · recorded edge +2.9%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 4.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-odds2025-servable-2026-v15.0.0
Under 4.5 · 20.2%+529 at kalshi · recorded edge +4.3%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-odds2025-servable-2026-v15.0.0
Over 4.5 · 79.8%-660 at kalshi · recorded edge -7.0%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 6.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-odds2025-servable-2026-v15.0.0
Under 6.5 · 40.6%+198 at kalshi · recorded edge +7.0%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-odds2025-servable-2026-v15.0.0
Over 6.5 · 59.4%-239 at kalshi · recorded edge -11.1%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 7.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-odds2025-servable-2026-v15.0.0
Over 7.5 · 47.4%-137 at polymarket · recorded edge -10.8%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-odds2025-servable-2026-v15.0.0
Under 7.5 · 52.6%+124 at polymarket · recorded edge +7.5%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 5.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-odds2025-servable-2026-v15.0.0
Under 5.5 · 31.8%+280 at kalshi · recorded edge +5.5%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-odds2025-servable-2026-v15.0.0
Over 5.5 · 68.2%-340 at kalshi · recorded edge -9.1%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 10.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-odds2025-servable-2026-v15.0.0
Under 10.5 · 76.2%-251 at kalshi · recorded edge +4.7%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-odds2025-servable-2026-v15.0.0
Over 10.5 · 23.8%+208 at kalshi · recorded edge -8.6%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 3.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-odds2025-servable-2026-v15.0.0
Under 3.5 · 13.6%+945 at kalshi · recorded edge +4.0%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-odds2025-servable-2026-v15.0.0
Over 3.5 · 86.4%-1236 at kalshi · recorded edge -6.1%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 11.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-odds2025-servable-2026-v15.0.0
Under 11.5 · 82.7%-381 at kalshi · recorded edge +3.5%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-odds2025-servable-2026-v15.0.0
Over 11.5 · 17.3%+313 at kalshi · recorded edge -6.9%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
Total 9.5 · 2 recorded snapshots
First look
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-odds2025-servable-2026-v15.0.0
Over 9.5 · 29.9%+158 at polymarket · recorded edge -9.3%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .Latest pregame
· retrosheet_lightgbm_poisson_blend retrosheet-game-odds2025-servable-2026-v15.0.0
Under 9.5 · 70.1%-175 at polymarket · recorded edge +5.9%
No paper recommendation recorded
Quote observed .First and latest pregame are model snapshots, not necessarily the bookmaker’s opening and closing prices.
02 · Why
Connect the forecast to the baseball
Recorded first look: input and contribution evidence was not retained in this summary.
Recorded latest pregame: input and contribution evidence was not retained in this summary.
Tabular model explanation
shapiq-imputation-baseline-sv-v1 · class-1 logit scale · 512 evaluation budget. This explains the tabular opinion, not the recommendation policy.
- Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year strikeout-minus-walk rate: -0.0627
- Matchup edge: the starter's prior-year xFIP (lower is better): -0.0432
- Matchup edge: start-of-day margin above or below the wild-card cutoff: 0.0412
- Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year defensive runs: 0.0269
- Matchup edge: the lineup's prior-year wRC+: 0.0247
- Matchup edge: proximity to the start-of-day playoff qualification cutoff: -0.0207
- Matchup edge: the lineup's season-to-date defensive error prevention: 0.0182
- Matchup edge: runs allowed per game over the last 10 games: 0.0152
Eye-test prompt: which recorded input fits what you saw, and which would you question? A single win or loss cannot establish that the reasoning was right.
03 · Movement
What changed?
Recorded moneyline prices
Prices move at a fixed selection; a change in a totals line is a different contract. Collection runs independently of opening this notebook.
Latest available books and main / alternate totals
Current board coverage may no longer include completed games. An empty board is not proof that no historical quotes were collected.
Model snapshots
No retained movement series is available in the published summary. First/latest checkpoints remain above.
04 · Review
Price quality and result are separate questions
No settled score recorded yet.
| Market | Latest pregame selection | Forecast | Outcome | Recorded CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total 8.5 | Under 8.5 | 52.1% | Pending | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | San Diego Padres | 57.1% | Pending | +2.1% |
| Total 12.5 | Under 12.5 | 86.9% | Pending | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 4.5 | Over 4.5 | 79.8% | Pending | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 6.5 | Over 6.5 | 59.4% | Pending | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 7.5 | Under 7.5 | 52.6% | Pending | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 5.5 | Over 5.5 | 68.2% | Pending | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 10.5 | Over 10.5 | 23.8% | Pending | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 3.5 | Over 3.5 | 86.4% | Pending | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 11.5 | Over 11.5 | 17.3% | Pending | Unavailable / incomparable |
| Total 9.5 | Under 9.5 | 70.1% | Pending | Unavailable / incomparable |
Recorded CLV compares the first and latest eligible pregame implied probabilities under the existing history policy. It is not a verified sportsbook closing tick. Missing or changed-selection comparisons stay unavailable.
A good price can lose; a poor forecast can win. Use forecast quality and matched model cohorts to judge repeated performance.
Technical details
- Forecast captured
- Unavailable
- Moneyline captured
- Unavailable
- Total market captured
- Unavailable
- Score last fetched
- Unavailable
The score source does not supply a per-game update timestamp; fetch time records when this score feed was retrieved, not when the score changed.
Totals difference withheld: comparison requires known pregame capture times, with the market captured no more than 30 minutes before the forecast.
Model input coverage
This record does not contain per-game input coverage. Availability cannot be inferred from the displayed probabilities.