+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
70 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
32 games unified from 97 stored model snapshots on 2026-09-21.
Games32
Settled25
First edge-0.7%
Pregame edge-2.0%
Average CLV-3.0%
Totals CLV-2.0%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n099dcfStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Francisco Giants -116Model 53.0% · Market 53.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants +109Model 45.8% · Market 47.9%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.9%-116 → +109Logit -0.234 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n099dcfStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Pending2-5 | PassUnder 7.5 +114Model 50.2% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +114Model 50.4% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+114 → +114Logit 0.000 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n099dcfStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Pending2-5 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 48.5% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 48.6% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+101 → +105Logit -0.039 | 7 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n099dcfStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-5 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 88.0% · Market 90.6%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 12.0% · Market 11.7%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n099dcfStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-5 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 72.8% · Market 71.5%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 27.2% · Market 32.5%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n099dcfStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-5 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 84.4% · Market 84.0%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 15.6% · Market 19.0%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n099dcfStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-5 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 71.3% · Market 76.3%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 28.7% · Market 27.3%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n099dcfStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 79.9% · Market 80.2%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 20.1% · Market 23.2%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n099dcfStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-5 | PassUnder 6.5 +197Model 37.0% · Market 34.6%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 5.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 63.0% · Market 68.6%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+197 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n099dcfStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-5 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 82.1% · Market 85.9%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 17.9% · Market 16.9%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n099dcfStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-5 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 66.5% · Market 65.6%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +159Model 33.5% · Market 38.6%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +159 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nfb9155Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 48.7% · Market 51.7%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 51.3% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -103 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nfb9155Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals +124Model 41.8% · Market 44.6%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers -137Model 61.8% · Market 57.8%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 9.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -137 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nfb9155Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-9 | PassUnder 10.5 -228Model 72.3% · Market 69.5%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +189Model 27.7% · Market 34.6%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nfb9155Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-9 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 17.5% · Market 14.8%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 82.5% · Market 87.8%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nfb9155Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-9 | PassOver 6.5 -251Model 63.5% · Market 71.5%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +208Model 36.5% · Market 32.5%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nfb9155Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-9 | PassUnder 9.5 -161Model 65.9% · Market 62.2%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 10.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +146Model 34.1% · Market 41.2%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nfb9155Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-9 | PassOver 5.5 -360Model 71.8% · Market 78.3%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +296Model 28.2% · Market 25.3%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nfb9155Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-9 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 11.7% · Market 10.6%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 88.3% · Market 91.6%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nfb9155Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-9 | PassUnder 7.5 +134Model 48.2% · Market 43.2%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 9.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -148Model 51.8% · Market 60.2%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nfb9155Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-9 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 16.0% · Market 21.1%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 84.0% · Market 82.1%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nfb9155Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-9 | PassOver 11.5 +280Model 20.6% · Market 26.3%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 79.4% · Market 77.3%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 9.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n286418Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassToronto Blue Jays -107Model 50.1% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBaltimore Orioles -107Model 50.1% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -107 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n286418Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -121Model 50.4% · Market 54.8%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +101Model 50.5% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.0%-121 → +101Logit -0.201 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n286418Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 8.5 -154Model 49.4% · Market 60.7%Edge -11.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +140Model 50.6% · Market 42.7%Edge +8.0% · Full Kelly 15.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-154 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n286418Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 9.5 +208Model 40.7% · Market 32.5%Edge +8.2% · Full Kelly 12.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -251Model 59.3% · Market 71.5%Edge -12.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n286418Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 5.5 -251Model 76.7% · Market 71.5%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 18.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +208Model 23.3% · Market 32.5%Edge -9.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n286418Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 90.8% · Market 88.7%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 18.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 9.2% · Market 13.8%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n286418Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 14.0% · Market 20.1%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -489Model 86.0% · Market 83.0%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 17.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n286418Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 10.5 +280Model 34.0% · Market 26.3%Edge +7.6% · Full Kelly 10.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -340Model 66.0% · Market 77.3%Edge -11.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n286418Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassUnder 6.5 +152Model 30.7% · Market 40.2%Edge -9.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -168Model 69.3% · Market 63.2%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 17.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n286418Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 11.5 +425Model 26.1% · Market 19.0%Edge +7.1% · Full Kelly 8.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -525Model 73.9% · Market 84.0%Edge -10.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
No settled paper bets are available yet. The trend begins after the first recommended stake is graded.
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 3
- Both cleared
- 0
- Rate
- 0.0%