-$42 · -0.4%
- Bets
- 4
- Record
- 2-2
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 1.4%
Full Kelly benchmark $9,771 · tracked -$37 on $555 settled paper stake · -6.7% ROI
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
70 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
161 games unified from 427 stored model snapshots on 2026-09-22.
Games161
Settled133
First edge-1.2%
Pregame edge-1.2%
Average CLV-1.7%
Totals CLV-2.7%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n8feb76Starts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Won0-7Paper stake $121 · P/L $92 | Paper betLos Angeles Dodgers -131Model 58.8% · Market 56.7%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 1.2% · $121 | Paper betLos Angeles Dodgers -131Model 58.8% · Market 56.7%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 1.2% · $121 | +0.0%-131 → -131Logit 0.000 | 6 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n8feb76Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 48.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 50.8% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -107 | 5 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n8feb76Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-7 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 19.1% · Market 20.1%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 80.9% · Market 83.0%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n8feb76Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-7 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 84.8% · Market 86.8%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 15.2% · Market 15.9%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n8feb76Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-7 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 61.7% · Market 64.2%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 38.3% · Market 39.2%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n8feb76Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-7 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 56.0% · Market 58.2%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 44.0% · Market 45.2%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n8feb76Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-7 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 31.7% · Market 33.6%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 68.3% · Market 70.5%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n8feb76Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-7 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 10.0% · Market 10.6%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 90.0% · Market 91.6%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n8feb76Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-7 | PassOver 5.5 -360Model 75.0% · Market 78.3%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +296Model 25.0% · Market 25.3%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n8feb76Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-7 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 32.7% · Market 34.6%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 67.3% · Market 69.5%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n8feb76Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-7 | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 24.1% · Market 25.3%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 75.9% · Market 78.3%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n87d2d7Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -121Model 50.6% · Market 54.8%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +114Model 49.5% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-121 → +114 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n87d2d7Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Francisco Giants +105Model 52.7% · Market 48.8%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 7.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants +114Model 48.2% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.1%+105 → +114Logit -0.082 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n87d2d7Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +140Model 38.1% · Market 42.7%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -155Model 61.9% · Market 61.2%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -155 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n87d2d7Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassOver 9.5 +229Model 32.4% · Market 30.4%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -276Model 67.6% · Market 73.4%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n87d2d7Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 8.5 -161Model 57.8% · Market 62.7%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +146Model 42.2% · Market 40.7%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n87d2d7Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassOver 4.5 -458Model 81.4% · Market 82.1%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +351Model 18.6% · Market 22.2%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n87d2d7Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassOver 10.5 +313Model 26.2% · Market 24.2%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -381Model 73.8% · Market 79.2%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n87d2d7Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 80.8% · Market 84.9%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 19.2% · Market 18.0%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n87d2d7Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassOver 3.5 -719Model 87.6% · Market 87.8%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 12.4% · Market 14.8%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n87d2d7Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 5.5 +189Model 29.6% · Market 34.6%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -228Model 70.4% · Market 69.5%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n76ed43Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 -103Model 48.0% · Market 50.7%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -107Model 52.1% · Market 51.7%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -107 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n76ed43Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels -116Model 51.0% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Angels -112Model 53.4% · Market 52.8%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%-116 → -112Logit -0.035 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n76ed43Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-9 | PassOver 10.5 +119Model 47.1% · Market 45.7%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -148Model 68.4% · Market 59.7%Edge +8.7% · Full Kelly 21.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -148 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n76ed43Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-9 | PassUnder 6.5 +313Model 32.8% · Market 24.2%Edge +8.6% · Full Kelly 11.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -381Model 67.2% · Market 79.2%Edge -12.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n76ed43Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-9 | PassUnder 5.5 +456Model 25.1% · Market 18.0%Edge +7.1% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -564Model 74.9% · Market 84.9%Edge -10.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n76ed43Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-9 | PassOver 12.5 +252Model 19.0% · Market 28.4%Edge -9.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -306Model 81.0% · Market 75.4%Edge +5.6% · Full Kelly 22.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n76ed43Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-9 | PassUnder 7.5 +189Model 44.0% · Market 34.6%Edge +9.4% · Full Kelly 14.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -228Model 56.0% · Market 69.5%Edge -13.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n76ed43Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-9 | PassUnder 8.5 +140Model 51.8% · Market 42.2%Edge +9.6% · Full Kelly 17.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -155Model 48.2% · Market 61.2%Edge -13.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -155 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n76ed43Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-9 | PassUnder 11.5 -228Model 76.0% · Market 69.5%Edge +6.5% · Full Kelly 21.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +189Model 24.0% · Market 34.6%Edge -10.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n76ed43Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-9 | PassUnder 4.5 +841Model 15.2% · Market 10.6%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 5.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -1087Model 84.8% · Market 91.6%Edge -6.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n76ed43Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-9 | PassUnder 13.5 -430Model 86.5% · Market 81.1%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 28.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +351Model 13.5% · Market 22.2%Edge -8.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n76ed43Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-9 | PassOver 3.5 -2042Model 90.0% · Market 95.3%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1464Model 10.0% · Market 6.4%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-2042 → +1464 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n8ac9faStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassHouston Astros +114Model 44.3% · Market 46.7%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSeattle Mariners -137Model 59.2% · Market 57.8%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -137 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n8ac9faStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -116Model 51.1% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +109Model 49.1% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → +109 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n8ac9faStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-0 | PassUnder 10.5 -381Model 76.1% · Market 79.2%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +313Model 23.9% · Market 24.2%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n8ac9faStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-0 | PassUnder 5.5 +189Model 31.7% · Market 34.6%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -228Model 68.3% · Market 69.5%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n8ac9faStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-0 | PassOver 9.5 +229Model 30.0% · Market 30.4%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -276Model 70.0% · Market 73.4%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n8ac9faStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-0 | PassUnder 4.5 +351Model 20.1% · Market 22.2%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -430Model 79.9% · Market 81.1%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n8ac9faStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-0 | PassUnder 8.5 -175Model 60.5% · Market 63.6%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +158Model 39.5% · Market 39.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n8ac9faStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-0 | PassOver 11.5 +490Model 17.4% · Market 16.9%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -609Model 82.6% · Market 85.9%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n8ac9faStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-0 | PassOver 6.5 -154Model 59.4% · Market 60.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +140Model 40.6% · Market 42.7%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-154 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n8ac9faStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-0 | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 86.4% · Market 86.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 13.6% · Market 15.9%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n645beaStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -103Model 50.4% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 +109Model 50.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%-103 → +109Logit -0.116 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n645beaStarts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Lost7-2Paper stake $148 · P/L -$148 | Paper betColorado Rockies +166Model 41.3% · Market 37.6%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 1.5% · $148 | PassColorado Rockies +152Model 41.3% · Market 39.7%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.1%+166 → +152Logit 0.088 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n645beaStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-2 | PassOver 9.5 -161Model 58.5% · Market 62.2%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 +146Model 41.5% · Market 41.2%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n645beaStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassOver 11.5 +101Model 48.4% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +119Model 43.3% · Market 46.2%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.6%+101 → +119Logit -0.142 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n645beaStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-2 | PassUnder 7.5 +296Model 26.2% · Market 25.3%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -360Model 73.8% · Market 78.3%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n645beaStarts | TotalOpening line 14.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassUnder 14.5 -322Model 75.4% · Market 76.3%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 14.5 +266Model 24.6% · Market 27.3%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n645beaStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassOver 8.5 -263Model 67.6% · Market 72.5%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +218Model 32.4% · Market 31.4%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n645beaStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassUnder 12.5 -175Model 62.8% · Market 63.6%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +146Model 37.2% · Market 40.7%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n645beaStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-2 | PassOver 13.5 +208Model 29.5% · Market 32.5%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -251Model 70.5% · Market 71.5%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n645beaStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassOver 5.5 -1087Model 87.0% · Market 91.6%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +841Model 13.0% · Market 10.6%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n645beaStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +529Model 17.9% · Market 15.9%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -660Model 82.1% · Market 86.8%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n645beaStarts | TotalOpening line 15.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-2 | PassOver 15.5 +373Model 19.1% · Market 21.1%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 15.5 -458Model 80.9% · Market 82.1%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n055365Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 50.0% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 50.0% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+105 → +101Logit 0.039 | 3 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n055365Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassTexas Rangers -126Model 54.7% · Market 55.8%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Mets +105Model 47.4% · Market 48.8%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-126 → +105 | 7 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n055365Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassUnder 6.5 +188Model 27.6% · Market 35.2%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -209Model 72.4% · Market 68.1%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 14.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+188 → -209 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n055365Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 12.2% · Market 16.9%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 87.8% · Market 85.9%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 13.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n055365Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 92.1% · Market 91.6%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 7.9% · Market 11.7%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n055365Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassUnder 7.5 -112Model 49.8% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 38.2% · Market 46.2%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -6.6%-112 → +119Logit -0.266 | 5 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n055365Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassOver 9.5 +166Model 44.5% · Market 37.6%Edge +6.9% · Full Kelly 11.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -199Model 55.5% · Market 66.6%Edge -11.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n055365Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 20.8% · Market 27.3%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 79.2% · Market 76.3%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 12.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n055365Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 70.5% · Market 80.2%Edge -9.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 29.5% · Market 23.2%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 8.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n055365Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 37.7% · Market 31.4%Edge +6.2% · Full Kelly 9.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 62.3% · Market 72.5%Edge -10.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n0afdbeStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.3% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.4% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%-103 → +105Logit -0.078 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n0afdbeStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassKansas City Royals +101Model 47.8% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassKansas City Royals +101Model 49.5% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+101 → +101Logit 0.000 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n0afdbeStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won14-11 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 13.6% · Market 18.0%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 86.4% · Market 84.9%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 9.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n0afdbeStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won14-11 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 73.1% · Market 81.1%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 26.9% · Market 22.2%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n0afdbeStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won14-11 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 65.2% · Market 73.4%Edge -8.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 34.8% · Market 30.4%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n0afdbeStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won14-11 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.7% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +119Model 51.5% · Market 46.2%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.6%+105 → +119Logit -0.104 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n0afdbeStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost14-11 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 21.6% · Market 18.0%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 78.4% · Market 84.9%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n0afdbeStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost14-11 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 77.3% · Market 74.4%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 11.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 22.7% · Market 29.4%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n0afdbeStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost14-11 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 91.1% · Market 89.7%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 14.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 8.9% · Market 12.7%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n0afdbeStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won14-11 | PassUnder 9.5 -200Model 58.5% · Market 67.1%Edge -8.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +180Model 41.5% · Market 36.2%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n0afdbeStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won14-11 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 30.0% · Market 37.6%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 70.0% · Market 67.5%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 7.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nca7921Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +105Model 48.2% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +101Model 48.3% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+105 → +101Logit 0.039 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nca7921Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMiami Marlins +159Model 43.4% · Market 38.6%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 7.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins +173Model 36.2% · Market 36.6%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%+159 → +173Logit -0.084 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nca7921Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-2 | PassOver 7.5 +146Model 55.2% · Market 41.2%Edge +14.1% · Full Kelly 24.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -161Model 44.8% · Market 62.2%Edge -17.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nca7921Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-2 | PassOver 5.5 -168Model 74.5% · Market 62.7%Edge +11.8% · Full Kelly 31.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +140Model 25.5% · Market 41.7%Edge -16.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nca7921Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +425Model 10.3% · Market 19.0%Edge -8.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -525Model 89.7% · Market 84.0%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 35.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nca7921Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +280Model 15.5% · Market 26.3%Edge -10.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -340Model 84.5% · Market 77.3%Edge +7.2% · Full Kelly 31.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nca7921Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-2 | PassUnder 8.5 -219Model 52.5% · Market 69.6%Edge -17.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +198Model 47.5% · Market 33.6%Edge +13.9% · Full Kelly 21.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-219 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nca7921Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -381Model 62.4% · Market 79.2%Edge -16.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +313Model 37.6% · Market 24.2%Edge +13.4% · Full Kelly 17.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nca7921Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-2 | PassOver 11.5 +685Model 23.6% · Market 12.7%Edge +10.9% · Full Kelly 12.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -869Model 76.4% · Market 89.7%Edge -13.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nca7921Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-2 | PassOver 10.5 +425Model 31.1% · Market 19.0%Edge +12.1% · Full Kelly 14.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -525Model 68.9% · Market 84.0%Edge -15.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n5cfddfStarts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Won4-0Paper stake $102 · P/L $202 | Paper betCincinnati Reds +198Model 36.3% · Market 33.6%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 1.0% · $102 | Paper betCincinnati Reds +198Model 36.3% · Market 33.6%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 1.0% · $102 | +0.0%+198 → +198Logit 0.000 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n5cfddfStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 -107Model 48.1% · Market 51.7%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +101Model 48.6% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%-107 → +101Logit -0.078 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n5cfddfStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1241Model 8.2% · Market 7.5%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1684Model 91.8% · Market 94.4%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1241 → -1684 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n5cfddfStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-0 | PassUnder 4.5 +841Model 12.6% · Market 10.6%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -1087Model 87.4% · Market 91.6%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n5cfddfStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-0 | PassOver 12.5 +266Model 23.3% · Market 27.3%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -322Model 76.7% · Market 76.3%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n5cfddfStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-0 | PassUnder 8.5 +134Model 46.5% · Market 43.2%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -148Model 53.5% · Market 60.2%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n5cfddfStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-0 | PassOver 13.5 +373Model 17.1% · Market 21.1%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -458Model 82.9% · Market 82.1%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n5cfddfStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-0 | PassUnder 6.5 +280Model 28.3% · Market 26.3%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -360Model 71.7% · Market 78.3%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n5cfddfStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-0 | PassUnder 11.5 -239Model 71.2% · Market 70.5%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +198Model 28.8% · Market 33.6%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n5cfddfStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-0 | PassUnder 5.5 +425Model 21.3% · Market 19.0%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -525Model 78.7% · Market 84.0%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n5cfddfStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-0 | PassOver 7.5 -218Model 61.0% · Market 68.6%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +173Model 39.0% · Market 36.6%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n5cfddfStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-0 | PassOver 10.5 +146Model 36.9% · Market 41.7%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -161Model 63.1% · Market 61.7%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n20e1efStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 -112Model 48.9% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 +114Model 51.5% · Market 46.7%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → +114 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n20e1efStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Yankees -112Model 55.7% · Market 52.8%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTampa Bay Rays +119Model 44.9% · Market 45.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → +119 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n20e1efStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-1 | PassOver 5.5 -137Model 73.6% · Market 57.8%Edge +15.7% · Full Kelly 37.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +124Model 26.4% · Market 45.7%Edge -19.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n20e1efStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-1 | PassOver 3.5 -404Model 89.3% · Market 80.2%Edge +9.1% · Full Kelly 45.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +331Model 10.7% · Market 23.2%Edge -12.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n20e1efStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-1 | PassOver 8.5 +240Model 46.3% · Market 29.4%Edge +16.9% · Full Kelly 23.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -290Model 53.7% · Market 74.4%Edge -20.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n20e1efStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-1 | PassOver 11.5 +841Model 22.4% · Market 10.6%Edge +11.8% · Full Kelly 13.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -1087Model 77.6% · Market 91.6%Edge -14.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n20e1efStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-1 | PassOver 10.5 +529Model 29.8% · Market 15.9%Edge +13.9% · Full Kelly 16.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -660Model 70.2% · Market 86.8%Edge -16.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n20e1efStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-1 | PassUnder 9.5 -489Model 63.6% · Market 83.0%Edge -19.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +398Model 36.4% · Market 20.1%Edge +16.3% · Full Kelly 20.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n20e1efStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-1 | PassUnder 7.5 -200Model 45.9% · Market 67.1%Edge -21.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +180Model 54.1% · Market 36.2%Edge +17.9% · Full Kelly 28.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n20e1efStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-1 | PassUnder 4.5 +229Model 16.2% · Market 30.4%Edge -14.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -276Model 83.8% · Market 73.4%Edge +10.4% · Full Kelly 39.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n4f40b5Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCleveland Guardians +105Model 46.7% · Market 48.8%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBoston Red Sox -126Model 54.9% · Market 55.8%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -126 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n4f40b5Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 -107Model 48.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 +109Model 51.5% · Market 47.9%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → +109 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n4f40b5Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -967Model 78.1% · Market 90.6%Edge -12.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +756Model 21.9% · Market 11.7%Edge +10.3% · Full Kelly 11.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n4f40b5Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -458Model 64.2% · Market 82.1%Edge -17.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +373Model 35.8% · Market 21.1%Edge +14.6% · Full Kelly 18.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n4f40b5Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +229Model 16.6% · Market 30.4%Edge -13.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -276Model 83.4% · Market 73.4%Edge +10.0% · Full Kelly 37.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n4f40b5Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassOver 8.5 +240Model 45.6% · Market 29.4%Edge +16.2% · Full Kelly 23.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -290Model 54.4% · Market 74.4%Edge -20.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n4f40b5Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 7.5 -191Model 46.5% · Market 66.1%Edge -19.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +173Model 53.5% · Market 37.1%Edge +16.4% · Full Kelly 26.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n4f40b5Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassOver 10.5 +490Model 29.3% · Market 16.9%Edge +12.3% · Full Kelly 14.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -609Model 70.7% · Market 85.9%Edge -15.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n4f40b5Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassOver 5.5 -137Model 73.1% · Market 58.2%Edge +14.8% · Full Kelly 36.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +124Model 26.9% · Market 45.2%Edge -18.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n4f40b5Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +351Model 11.0% · Market 22.2%Edge -11.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -430Model 89.0% · Market 81.1%Edge +7.9% · Full Kelly 41.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n486235Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers -142Model 59.1% · Market 58.7%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers -154Model 60.7% · Market 60.6%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.9%-142 → -154Logit 0.081 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n486235Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 48.9% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 48.9% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%-107 → +105Logit -0.116 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n486235Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-1 | PassOver 9.5 +165Model 35.7% · Market 38.2%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 64.3% · Market 65.1%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+165 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n486235Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-1 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 46.6% · Market 45.7%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 53.4% · Market 57.3%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -131 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n486235Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-1 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 70.7% · Market 71.5%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 29.3% · Market 32.5%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n486235Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-1 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 82.8% · Market 84.0%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 17.2% · Market 19.0%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n486235Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-1 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 73.1% · Market 76.3%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 26.9% · Market 27.3%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n486235Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-1 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 65.0% · Market 69.5%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 35.0% · Market 34.6%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n486235Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-1 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 78.0% · Market 79.2%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 22.0% · Market 24.2%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n486235Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-1 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 83.5% · Market 86.8%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 16.5% · Market 15.9%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n486235Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-1 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 11.0% · Market 11.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 89.0% · Market 90.6%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n673e9aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -107Model 50.0% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +109Model 50.1% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.8%-107 → +109Logit -0.154 | 4 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n673e9aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +119Model 44.7% · Market 45.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +134Model 43.7% · Market 42.7%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%+119 → +134Logit -0.118 | 6 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n673e9aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 6.5 -142Model 66.5% · Market 59.2%Edge +7.3% · Full Kelly 18.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +134Model 33.5% · Market 43.7%Edge -10.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n673e9aStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 10.5 +331Model 30.8% · Market 23.2%Edge +7.6% · Full Kelly 9.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -404Model 69.2% · Market 80.2%Edge -11.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n673e9aStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -290Model 62.7% · Market 74.4%Edge -11.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +240Model 37.3% · Market 29.4%Edge +7.9% · Full Kelly 11.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n673e9aStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 10.3% · Market 15.9%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 89.7% · Market 86.8%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 21.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n673e9aStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 11.5 +490Model 23.3% · Market 16.9%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 7.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -609Model 76.7% · Market 85.9%Edge -9.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n673e9aStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 5.5 +181Model 25.7% · Market 35.6%Edge -9.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -218Model 74.3% · Market 68.6%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 18.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n673e9aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 8.5 -175Model 52.7% · Market 64.2%Edge -11.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +158Model 47.3% · Market 39.2%Edge +8.0% · Full Kelly 13.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n673e9aStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +351Model 15.7% · Market 22.2%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -430Model 84.3% · Market 81.1%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 17.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n918f4aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassPhiladelphia Phillies -126Model 54.6% · Market 55.8%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMilwaukee Brewers +124Model 45.8% · Market 44.6%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-126 → +124 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n918f4aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -103Model 49.8% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +114Model 49.7% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%-103 → +114Logit -0.161 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n918f4aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +140Model 36.2% · Market 42.7%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -148Model 63.8% · Market 59.7%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 10.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n918f4aStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 88.4% · Market 86.8%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 12.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 11.6% · Market 15.9%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n918f4aStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 79.2% · Market 84.9%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 20.8% · Market 18.0%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n918f4aStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -276Model 65.6% · Market 73.4%Edge -7.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +229Model 34.4% · Market 30.4%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 5.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n918f4aStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassOver 10.5 +313Model 28.0% · Market 24.2%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -381Model 72.0% · Market 79.2%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n918f4aStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassOver 4.5 -430Model 82.6% · Market 81.1%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 8.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +351Model 17.4% · Market 22.2%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n918f4aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassOver 8.5 +152Model 44.2% · Market 40.2%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 7.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -168Model 55.8% · Market 63.2%Edge -7.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n918f4aStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 5.5 +181Model 28.0% · Market 35.6%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -218Model 72.0% · Market 68.6%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 10.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n575651Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBaltimore Orioles -121Model 55.1% · Market 54.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassToronto Blue Jays +101Model 48.2% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-121 → +101 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n575651Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -112Model 49.9% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +109Model 50.0% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → +109 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n113b8eStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +105Model 48.6% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +109Model 47.9% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+105 → +109Logit -0.037 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n113b8eStarts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Lost0-2Paper stake $183 · P/L -$183 | Paper betTampa Bay Rays +134Model 46.9% · Market 42.7%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 7.3%Policy Kelly 1.8% · $183 | Paper betTampa Bay Rays +134Model 46.9% · Market 42.7%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 7.3%Policy Kelly 1.8% · $183 | +0.0%+134 → +134Logit 0.000 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n113b8eStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 9.5 +307Model 41.1% · Market 25.4%Edge +15.6% · Full Kelly 21.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -326Model 58.9% · Market 76.9%Edge -18.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+307 → -326 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n113b8eStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 5.5 -183Model 76.9% · Market 65.1%Edge +11.8% · Full Kelly 34.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +158Model 23.1% · Market 39.2%Edge -16.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n113b8eStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +456Model 9.0% · Market 18.0%Edge -9.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -564Model 91.0% · Market 84.9%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 40.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n113b8eStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -719Model 73.5% · Market 87.8%Edge -14.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +574Model 26.5% · Market 14.8%Edge +11.6% · Full Kelly 13.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n113b8eStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassOver 7.5 +105Model 49.8% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +134Model 58.7% · Market 43.2%Edge +15.5% · Full Kelly 27.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.6%+105 → +134Logit -0.225 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n113b8eStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 8.5 -209Model 49.0% · Market 68.6%Edge -19.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +189Model 51.0% · Market 34.7%Edge +16.4% · Full Kelly 25.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-209 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n113b8eStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 10.5 +414Model 34.3% · Market 20.8%Edge +13.5% · Full Kelly 18.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -430Model 65.7% · Market 81.8%Edge -16.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+414 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n113b8eStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +296Model 13.8% · Market 25.4%Edge -11.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -345Model 86.2% · Market 77.9%Edge +8.3% · Full Kelly 38.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -345 | 2 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat. This chart begins on Sep 22, the first settled paper bet in the retained read model; it does not imply that earlier games were replayed.
- Current bankroll
- $9,963
- Cumulative
- -0.4%
- Best day
- -0.4%
- Worst day
- -0.4%
- Settled bets
- 4
Cumulative bankroll return
Daily bankroll return
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
+$108 · +1.1%
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 2-1
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 1.4%
Full Kelly benchmark $10,388 · tracked $111 on $406 settled paper stake · +27.4% ROI
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 16
- Both cleared
- 0
- Rate
- 0.0%