Baseball

Track record

Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.

Retained daily results

70 dates available

Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026

Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.

Game history

First look vs. latest pregame

166 games unified from 454 stored model snapshots on 2026-09-20.

Games166
Settled141
First edge-1.6%
Pregame edge-0.5%
Average CLV-2.2%
Totals CLV-2.6%
GameMarketResultFirst recommendationLatest pregameCLVModel movement
Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n1d5fb2Starts MoneylinePaper Kelly trackedLost3-0Paper stake $128 · P/L -$128Paper betBaltimore Orioles +173Model 39.9% · Market 36.6%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 5.1%Policy Kelly 1.3% · $128Paper betBaltimore Orioles +173Model 39.9% · Market 36.6%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 5.1%Policy Kelly 1.3% · $128+0.0%+173 → +173Logit 0.0006 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n1d5fb2Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-0PassOver 8.5 +124Model 49.5% · Market 44.6%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 8.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +134Model 52.2% · Market 43.2%Edge +9.0% · Full Kelly 16.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.4%+124 → +134Logit -0.0584 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n1d5fb2Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 7.5 -116Model 49.5% · Market 53.7%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 -103Model 50.7% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-116 → -1034 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n1d5fb2Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-0PassOver 6.5 -175Model 70.5% · Market 63.6%Edge +6.8% · Full Kelly 18.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 6.5 -175Model 70.5% · Market 64.2%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 18.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.5%-175 → -175Logit 0.0222 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n1d5fb2Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-0PassUnder 10.5 -322Model 64.4% · Market 76.3%Edge -11.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +266Model 35.6% · Market 27.3%Edge +8.3% · Full Kelly 11.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-322 → +2662 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n1d5fb2Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-0PassUnder 9.5 -239Model 57.7% · Market 70.5%Edge -12.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +198Model 42.3% · Market 33.6%Edge +8.7% · Full Kelly 13.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-239 → +1982 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n1d5fb2Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-0PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 8.8% · Market 12.7%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 3.5 -869Model 91.2% · Market 89.7%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 15.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+685 → -8692 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n1d5fb2Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-0PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 13.4% · Market 20.1%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 4.5 -489Model 86.6% · Market 83.0%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 21.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+398 → -4892 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n1d5fb2Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betWon3-0PassOver 5.5 -263Model 77.6% · Market 72.5%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 18.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 5.5 +218Model 22.4% · Market 31.4%Edge -9.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-263 → +2182 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n1d5fb2Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-0PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 72.4% · Market 82.1%Edge -9.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 11.5 +373Model 27.6% · Market 21.1%Edge +6.5% · Full Kelly 8.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-458 → +3732 decision snapshots
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n18a078Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassSan Francisco Giants +218Model 39.7% · Market 31.4%Edge +8.3% · Full Kelly 12.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassSan Francisco Giants +229Model 31.7% · Market 30.4%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.1%+218 → +229Logit -0.0496 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n1a6317Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassMiami Marlins +124Model 45.2% · Market 44.6%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassMiami Marlins +129Model 43.8% · Market 43.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.0%+124 → +129Logit -0.0396 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nbffbd4Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassOver 8.5 -112Model 49.5% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.4% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-5.0%-112 → +109Logit -0.1994 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nbffbd4Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassArizona Diamondbacks -107Model 49.4% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassNew York Yankees +101Model 50.3% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-107 → +1016 decision snapshots
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n18a078Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassOver 8.5 +105Model 48.7% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.1% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+1.0%+105 → +101Logit 0.0394 decision snapshots
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n18a078Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-3PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.3% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 -137Model 55.2% · Market 58.2%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-103 → -1374 decision snapshots
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n18a078Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-3PassOver 4.5 -660Model 84.4% · Market 86.8%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 15.6% · Market 15.9%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-660 → +5292 decision snapshots
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n18a078Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-3PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 89.7% · Market 91.6%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 10.3% · Market 10.6%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-1087 → +8412 decision snapshots
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n18a078Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-3PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 62.5% · Market 63.2%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +152Model 37.5% · Market 40.2%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-168 → +1522 decision snapshots
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n18a078Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-3PassOver 11.5 +296Model 23.5% · Market 25.3%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 76.5% · Market 78.3%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+296 → -3602 decision snapshots
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n18a078Starts TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-3PassOver 12.5 +398Model 18.6% · Market 20.1%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 81.4% · Market 83.0%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+398 → -4892 decision snapshots
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n18a078Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-3PassOver 5.5 -322Model 74.4% · Market 76.3%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 25.6% · Market 27.3%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-322 → +2662 decision snapshots
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n18a078Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-3PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 33.5% · Market 34.6%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 6.5 -228Model 66.5% · Market 69.5%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+189 → -2282 decision snapshots
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n18a078Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-3PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 69.0% · Market 71.5%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +208Model 31.0% · Market 32.5%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-251 → +2082 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n1a6317Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassOver 8.5 -107Model 48.4% · Market 51.7%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.0% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-3.8%-107 → +109Logit -0.1544 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n1a6317Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-7PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 69.8% · Market 72.5%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +218Model 30.2% · Market 31.4%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-263 → +2182 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n1a6317Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-7PassOver 9.5 +173Model 36.7% · Market 37.1%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 63.3% · Market 66.1%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+173 → -1912 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n1a6317Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-7PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 77.2% · Market 79.2%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 11.5 +313Model 22.8% · Market 24.2%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-381 → +3132 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n1a6317Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betWon3-7PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 26.1% · Market 28.4%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 5.5 -306Model 73.9% · Market 75.4%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+252 → -3062 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n1a6317Starts TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-7PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 82.1% · Market 84.9%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 12.5 +456Model 17.9% · Market 18.0%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-564 → +4562 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n1a6317Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betWon3-7PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 50.5% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 -126Model 54.4% · Market 56.2%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+101 → -1264 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n1a6317Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betWon3-7PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 10.6% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 89.4% · Market 91.6%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+756 → -10872 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n1a6317Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-7PassOver 6.5 -218Model 65.9% · Market 68.6%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 34.1% · Market 35.6%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-218 → +1812 decision snapshots
Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n1a6317Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betWon3-7PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 16.0% · Market 16.9%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 4.5 -609Model 84.0% · Market 85.9%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+490 → -6092 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nbffbd4Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-8PassOver 5.5 -322Model 76.1% · Market 76.3%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 23.9% · Market 27.3%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-322 → +2662 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nbffbd4Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-8PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 42.5% · Market 46.8%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 -131Model 57.5% · Market 56.7%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+119 → -1312 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nbffbd4Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-8PassOver 6.5 -218Model 68.6% · Market 68.6%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 31.4% · Market 35.6%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-218 → +1812 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nbffbd4Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-8PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 74.6% · Market 80.2%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 11.5 +331Model 25.4% · Market 23.2%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-404 → +3312 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nbffbd4Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-8PassOver 4.5 -609Model 85.6% · Market 85.9%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 14.4% · Market 16.9%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-609 → +4902 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nbffbd4Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-8PassOver 3.5 -967Model 90.5% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 9.5% · Market 11.7%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-967 → +7562 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nbffbd4Starts TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-8PassOver 12.5 +398Model 20.3% · Market 20.1%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 79.7% · Market 83.0%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+398 → -4892 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nbffbd4Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betWon4-8PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 66.8% · Market 72.5%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +218Model 33.2% · Market 31.4%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-263 → +2182 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nbffbd4Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-8PassOver 9.5 +166Model 39.8% · Market 37.7%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 60.2% · Market 65.6%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+166 → -1832 decision snapshots
Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n936190Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 8.5 -112Model 50.8% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-112 → +1054 decision snapshots
Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n936190Starts MoneylinePaper Kelly trackedLost8-0Paper stake $133 · P/L -$133Paper betLos Angeles Angels -103Model 53.4% · Market 50.7%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 1.3% · $133Paper betLos Angeles Angels -103Model 53.4% · Market 50.7%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 1.3% · $133+0.0%-103 → -103Logit 0.0006 decision snapshots
Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n936190Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betLost8-0PassOver 6.5 -218Model 66.8% · Market 68.6%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 33.2% · Market 35.6%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-218 → +1812 decision snapshots
Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n936190Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betWon8-0PassOver 10.5 +218Model 31.1% · Market 31.4%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 68.9% · Market 72.5%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+218 → -2632 decision snapshots
Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n936190Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betLost8-0PassOver 3.5 -967Model 89.8% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 10.2% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-967 → +7562 decision snapshots
Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n936190Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betWon8-0PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 15.5% · Market 16.9%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 4.5 -609Model 84.5% · Market 85.9%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+490 → -6092 decision snapshots
Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n936190Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betLost8-0PassOver 5.5 -322Model 74.6% · Market 76.3%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 25.4% · Market 28.4%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-322 → +2522 decision snapshots
Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n936190Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost8-0PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 62.3% · Market 64.6%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +159Model 37.7% · Market 38.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-175 → +1592 decision snapshots
Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n936190Starts TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no betWon8-0PassOver 12.5 +398Model 18.6% · Market 20.1%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 81.4% · Market 83.0%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+398 → -4892 decision snapshots
Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n936190Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betLost8-0PassOver 7.5 -131Model 55.4% · Market 56.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 44.6% · Market 46.8%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-131 → +1192 decision snapshots
Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n936190Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betLost8-0PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 76.4% · Market 80.2%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 11.5 +331Model 23.6% · Market 23.2%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-404 → +3312 decision snapshots
Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n9594cbStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassColorado Rockies +119Model 47.0% · Market 45.7%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassColorado Rockies +140Model 43.1% · Market 41.7%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-4.0%+119 → +140Logit -0.1628 decision snapshots
Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n9594cbStarts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 10.5 +105Model 50.3% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 10.5 +109Model 50.1% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-0.9%+105 → +109Logit -0.0374 decision snapshots
Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n9594cbStarts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-1PassOver 7.5 -360Model 74.6% · Market 78.3%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 7.5 +296Model 25.4% · Market 25.3%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-360 → +2962 decision snapshots
Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n9594cbStarts TotalOpening line 15.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-1PassUnder 15.5 -489Model 80.1% · Market 83.0%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 15.5 +398Model 19.9% · Market 20.1%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-489 → +3982 decision snapshots
Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n9594cbStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-1PassOver 8.5 -263Model 68.6% · Market 72.5%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 +218Model 31.4% · Market 31.4%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-263 → +2182 decision snapshots
Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n9594cbStarts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-1PassUnder 5.5 +685Model 12.5% · Market 12.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 5.5 -869Model 87.5% · Market 89.7%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+685 → -8692 decision snapshots
Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n9594cbStarts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-1PassUnder 11.5 -137Model 55.6% · Market 57.8%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 11.5 +124Model 44.4% · Market 45.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-137 → +1242 decision snapshots
Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n9594cbStarts TotalOpening line 14.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-1PassOver 14.5 +280Model 25.4% · Market 26.3%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 14.5 -340Model 74.6% · Market 77.3%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+280 → -3402 decision snapshots
Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n9594cbStarts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-1PassOver 6.5 -609Model 82.7% · Market 85.9%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 6.5 +490Model 17.3% · Market 16.9%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-609 → +4902 decision snapshots
Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n9594cbStarts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-1PassOver 9.5 -175Model 59.5% · Market 63.6%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9.5 +146Model 40.5% · Market 40.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-175 → +1462 decision snapshots
Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n9594cbStarts TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no betLost2-1PassUnder 12.5 -175Model 61.7% · Market 64.2%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 12.5 +158Model 38.3% · Market 39.2%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-175 → +1582 decision snapshots
Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n9594cbStarts TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no betWon2-1PassOver 13.5 +218Model 30.4% · Market 31.4%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 13.5 -263Model 69.6% · Market 72.5%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+218 → -2632 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0bbef9Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassToronto Blue Jays +109Model 47.8% · Market 47.9%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassToronto Blue Jays +146Model 43.5% · Market 40.6%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-7.2%+109 → +146Logit -0.2928 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0bbef9Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 7.5 -107Model 49.7% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 +114Model 50.6% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 7.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-107 → +1144 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0bbef9Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-2PassOver 5.5 -239Model 76.9% · Market 70.5%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 21.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 5.5 +198Model 23.1% · Market 33.6%Edge -10.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-239 → +1982 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0bbef9Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon7-2PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.3% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +152Model 50.9% · Market 40.2%Edge +10.8% · Full Kelly 18.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-8.6%+105 → +152Logit -0.3504 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0bbef9Starts TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-2PassUnder 12.5 -788Model 78.8% · Market 88.7%Edge -9.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 12.5 +574Model 21.2% · Market 14.8%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 7.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-788 → +5742 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0bbef9Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-2PassOver 4.5 -430Model 86.2% · Market 81.1%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 26.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 4.5 +331Model 13.8% · Market 23.2%Edge -9.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-430 → +3312 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0bbef9Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-2PassOver 6.5 -155Model 69.6% · Market 61.2%Edge +8.3% · Full Kelly 22.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 6.5 +140Model 30.4% · Market 42.2%Edge -11.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-155 → +1402 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0bbef9Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betWon7-2PassOver 11.5 +456Model 26.4% · Market 18.0%Edge +8.4% · Full Kelly 10.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 73.6% · Market 84.9%Edge -11.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+456 → -5642 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0bbef9Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-2PassUnder 10.5 -381Model 65.7% · Market 79.2%Edge -13.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +313Model 34.3% · Market 24.2%Edge +10.1% · Full Kelly 13.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-381 → +3132 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0bbef9Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-2PassOver 3.5 -660Model 91.0% · Market 86.8%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 31.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 9.0% · Market 15.9%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-660 → +5292 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0bbef9Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-2PassUnder 9.5 -239Model 59.1% · Market 70.5%Edge -11.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +198Model 40.9% · Market 33.6%Edge +7.4% · Full Kelly 11.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-239 → +1982 decision snapshots
Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9b4b4Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 8.5 +105Model 51.0% · Market 48.8%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.7% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+105 → +105Logit 0.0004 decision snapshots
Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9b4b4Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassWashington Nationals +119Model 45.2% · Market 45.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassSt. Louis Cardinals -131Model 55.4% · Market 56.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+119 → -1316 decision snapshots
Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9b4b4Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-5PassOver 9.5 +109Model 47.7% · Market 47.9%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +134Model 38.9% · Market 43.2%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-4.6%+109 → +134Logit -0.1884 decision snapshots
Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9b4b4Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betWon3-5PassOver 11.5 +252Model 24.7% · Market 28.4%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 75.3% · Market 75.4%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+252 → -3062 decision snapshots
Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9b4b4Starts TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no betWon3-5PassOver 12.5 +331Model 19.6% · Market 23.2%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 12.5 -404Model 80.4% · Market 80.2%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+331 → -4042 decision snapshots
Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9b4b4Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-5PassOver 7.5 -168Model 56.6% · Market 62.7%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 7.5 +140Model 43.4% · Market 41.7%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-168 → +1402 decision snapshots
Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9b4b4Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betWon3-5PassOver 10.5 +173Model 32.3% · Market 37.1%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 10.5 -191Model 67.7% · Market 66.1%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+173 → -1912 decision snapshots
Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9b4b4Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-5PassOver 5.5 -404Model 75.5% · Market 80.2%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 5.5 +331Model 24.5% · Market 23.2%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-404 → +3312 decision snapshots
Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9b4b4Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betWon3-5PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 9.7% · Market 9.6%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 90.3% · Market 92.5%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+945 → -12362 decision snapshots
Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9b4b4Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-5PassOver 6.5 -276Model 67.9% · Market 73.4%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 6.5 +229Model 32.1% · Market 30.4%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-276 → +2292 decision snapshots
Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9b4b4Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betWon3-5PassUnder 4.5 +625Model 14.8% · Market 13.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 4.5 -788Model 85.2% · Market 88.7%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+625 → -7882 decision snapshots
Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66nc9b4b4Starts TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no betWon3-5PassOver 13.5 +456Model 14.0% · Market 18.0%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 13.5 -564Model 86.0% · Market 84.9%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 7.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+456 → -5642 decision snapshots
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nece754Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassChicago White Sox -116Model 52.0% · Market 53.7%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassDetroit Tigers +101Model 49.3% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-116 → +1016 decision snapshots
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nece754Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-8PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.8% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 -131Model 57.4% · Market 57.3%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-103 → -1314 decision snapshots
Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66ned27e3Starts MoneylinePaper Kelly trackedWon4-2Paper stake $148 · P/L $198Paper betAtlanta Braves +134Model 46.1% · Market 42.7%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 1.5% · $148Paper betAtlanta Braves +134Model 46.1% · Market 42.7%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 1.5% · $148+0.0%+134 → +134Logit 0.0006 decision snapshots
Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66ned27e3Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.3% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.5% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-2.9%-103 → +109Logit -0.1164 decision snapshots
Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66ned27e3Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-2PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.7% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 -131Model 58.2% · Market 57.3%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+105 → -1314 decision snapshots
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nece754Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.1% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-0.9%+105 → +109Logit -0.0374 decision snapshots
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nece754Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-8PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 31.5% · Market 36.6%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 6.5 -208Model 68.5% · Market 67.5%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+173 → -2082 decision snapshots
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nece754Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-8PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 66.9% · Market 72.5%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +218Model 33.1% · Market 31.4%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-263 → +2182 decision snapshots
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nece754Starts TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-8PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 79.8% · Market 84.9%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 12.5 +425Model 20.2% · Market 19.0%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-564 → +4252 decision snapshots
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nece754Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-8PassOver 9.5 +173Model 39.7% · Market 37.1%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 60.3% · Market 66.1%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+173 → -1912 decision snapshots
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nece754Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-8PassOver 5.5 -290Model 76.0% · Market 74.4%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 24.0% · Market 29.4%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-290 → +2402 decision snapshots
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nece754Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-8PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 74.7% · Market 80.2%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 11.5 +331Model 25.3% · Market 23.2%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-404 → +3312 decision snapshots
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nece754Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-8PassOver 4.5 -609Model 85.5% · Market 85.9%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 14.5% · Market 16.9%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-609 → +4902 decision snapshots
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nece754Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-8PassOver 3.5 -967Model 90.5% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 9.5% · Market 11.7%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-967 → +7562 decision snapshots
Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66ned27e3Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-2PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 59.4% · Market 65.1%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +166Model 40.6% · Market 37.7%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-183 → +1662 decision snapshots
Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66ned27e3Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-2PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 66.1% · Market 72.5%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +218Model 33.9% · Market 31.4%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-263 → +2182 decision snapshots
Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66ned27e3Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-2PassOver 5.5 -322Model 76.7% · Market 76.3%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 23.3% · Market 27.3%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-322 → +2662 decision snapshots
Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66ned27e3Starts TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-2PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 79.1% · Market 84.0%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 12.5 +425Model 20.9% · Market 19.0%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-525 → +4252 decision snapshots
Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66ned27e3Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-2PassOver 3.5 -967Model 90.8% · Market 90.6%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 9.2% · Market 11.7%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-967 → +7562 decision snapshots
Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66ned27e3Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-2PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 73.9% · Market 79.2%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 11.5 +313Model 26.1% · Market 24.2%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-381 → +3132 decision snapshots
Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66ned27e3Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-2PassOver 4.5 -609Model 86.0% · Market 85.9%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 14.0% · Market 16.9%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-609 → +4902 decision snapshots
Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66ned27e3Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betLost4-2PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 30.7% · Market 35.6%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 6.5 -218Model 69.3% · Market 68.6%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+181 → -2182 decision snapshots
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n16e1f8Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassBoston Red Sox +114Model 45.7% · Market 46.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassTampa Bay Rays -154Model 59.1% · Market 60.6%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+114 → -1548 decision snapshots
Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n3dfcc3Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassAthletics +166Model 38.0% · Market 37.6%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassAthletics +198Model 33.7% · Market 33.6%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-4.0%+166 → +198Logit -0.1766 decision snapshots
Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n3dfcc3Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betLost0-1PassUnder 6.5 +105Model 48.9% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 6.5 -142Model 67.9% · Market 58.7%Edge +9.2% · Full Kelly 22.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+105 → -1426 decision snapshots
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nd857abStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassCincinnati Reds +124Model 48.2% · Market 44.6%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassCincinnati Reds +140Model 40.7% · Market 41.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-3.0%+124 → +140Logit -0.1216 decision snapshots
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n16e1f8Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.7% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 +101Model 49.8% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+105 → +1014 decision snapshots
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n16e1f8Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-5PassUnder 10.5 -340Model 71.7% · Market 77.3%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +280Model 28.3% · Market 26.3%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-340 → +2802 decision snapshots
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n16e1f8Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-5PassOver 3.5 -788Model 88.6% · Market 88.7%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 11.4% · Market 14.8%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-788 → +5742 decision snapshots
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n16e1f8Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-5PassOver 11.5 +373Model 21.1% · Market 21.1%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 78.9% · Market 82.1%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+373 → -4582 decision snapshots
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n16e1f8Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-5PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 17.1% · Market 20.1%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 4.5 -489Model 82.9% · Market 83.0%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+398 → -4892 decision snapshots
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n16e1f8Starts TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no betWon1-5PassOver 12.5 +574Model 16.4% · Market 14.8%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 12.5 -719Model 83.6% · Market 87.8%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+574 → -7192 decision snapshots
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n16e1f8Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-5PassUnder 6.5 +146Model 35.9% · Market 40.7%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 6.5 -175Model 64.1% · Market 63.6%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+146 → -1752 decision snapshots
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n16e1f8Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-5PassOver 5.5 -263Model 72.3% · Market 72.5%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 5.5 +218Model 27.7% · Market 31.4%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-263 → +2182 decision snapshots
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n16e1f8Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-5PassOver 9.5 +140Model 46.9% · Market 41.7%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +198Model 34.7% · Market 33.6%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-8.1%+140 → +198Logit -0.3443 decision snapshots
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n16e1f8Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost1-5PassOver 8.5 +101Model 48.3% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +134Model 44.5% · Market 43.2%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-6.5%+101 → +134Logit -0.2644 decision snapshots
Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n3dfcc3Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betPending0-1PassOver 7.5 +105Model 49.5% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 +114Model 50.3% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-2.1%+105 → +114Logit -0.0825 decision snapshots
Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n3dfcc3Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betWon0-1PassOver 3.5 -609Model 90.3% · Market 85.9%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 30.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 3.5 +456Model 9.7% · Market 18.0%Edge -8.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-609 → +4562 decision snapshots
Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n3dfcc3Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betWon0-1PassOver 8.5 +166Model 48.9% · Market 37.7%Edge +11.3% · Full Kelly 18.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 -183Model 51.1% · Market 65.6%Edge -14.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+166 → -1832 decision snapshots
Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n3dfcc3Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betLost0-1PassUnder 5.5 +173Model 24.5% · Market 36.6%Edge -12.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 5.5 -208Model 75.5% · Market 67.5%Edge +8.0% · Full Kelly 24.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+173 → -2082 decision snapshots
Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n3dfcc3Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betWon0-1PassOver 10.5 +331Model 32.5% · Market 23.2%Edge +9.3% · Full Kelly 12.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 10.5 -430Model 67.5% · Market 81.1%Edge -13.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+331 → -4302 decision snapshots
Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n3dfcc3Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betLost0-1PassUnder 4.5 +313Model 14.8% · Market 24.2%Edge -9.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 4.5 -381Model 85.2% · Market 79.2%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 28.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+313 → -3812 decision snapshots
Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n3dfcc3Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost0-1PassUnder 9.5 -322Model 60.9% · Market 76.3%Edge -15.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +252Model 39.1% · Market 28.4%Edge +10.6% · Full Kelly 14.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-322 → +2522 decision snapshots
Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n3dfcc3Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betLost0-1PassUnder 11.5 -660Model 75.1% · Market 86.8%Edge -11.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 11.5 +490Model 24.9% · Market 16.9%Edge +7.9% · Full Kelly 9.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-660 → +4902 decision snapshots
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nd857abStarts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 9.5 -107Model 51.2% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9.5 -107Model 50.9% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%-107 → -107Logit 0.0004 decision snapshots
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nd857abStarts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betLost9-1PassUnder 11.5 -200Model 68.0% · Market 67.6%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 11.5 +180Model 32.0% · Market 36.2%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-200 → +1802 decision snapshots
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nd857abStarts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betLost9-1PassOver 7.5 -228Model 64.2% · Market 69.5%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 7.5 +189Model 35.8% · Market 34.6%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-228 → +1892 decision snapshots
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nd857abStarts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betWon9-1PassUnder 5.5 +425Model 19.2% · Market 19.0%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 5.5 -525Model 80.8% · Market 84.0%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+425 → -5252 decision snapshots
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nd857abStarts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betWon9-1PassOver 10.5 +129Model 40.3% · Market 44.2%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 10.5 -142Model 59.7% · Market 59.2%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+129 → -1422 decision snapshots
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nd857abStarts TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no betLost9-1PassUnder 13.5 -430Model 80.3% · Market 81.1%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 13.5 +331Model 19.7% · Market 23.2%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-430 → +3312 decision snapshots
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nd857abStarts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betLost9-1PassOver 6.5 -360Model 74.3% · Market 78.3%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 6.5 +296Model 25.7% · Market 25.3%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-360 → +2962 decision snapshots
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nd857abStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost9-1PassOver 8.5 -168Model 57.0% · Market 62.7%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 +140Model 43.0% · Market 41.7%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-168 → +1402 decision snapshots
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nd857abStarts TotalOpening line 14.5Decision tracked · no betWon9-1PassOver 14.5 +425Model 15.7% · Market 19.0%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 14.5 -525Model 84.3% · Market 84.0%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+425 → -5252 decision snapshots
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nd857abStarts TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no betWon9-1PassOver 12.5 +229Model 26.4% · Market 30.4%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 12.5 -290Model 73.6% · Market 74.4%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+229 → -2902 decision snapshots
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nd857abStarts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betLost9-1PassOver 4.5 -1236Model 88.8% · Market 92.5%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 4.5 +945Model 11.2% · Market 9.6%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-1236 → +9452 decision snapshots
Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nb92de6Starts MoneylinePaper Kelly trackedWon3-4Paper stake $168 · P/L $145Paper betPittsburgh Pirates -116Model 56.8% · Market 53.7%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 1.7% · $168Paper betPittsburgh Pirates -121Model 56.8% · Market 54.8%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 1.1% · $114+1.0%-116 → -121Logit 0.0428 decision snapshots
Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nb92de6Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassOver 8.5 -112Model 49.3% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 50.5% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-112 → -1034 decision snapshots
Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nb92de6Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betWon3-4PassOver 11.5 +280Model 25.8% · Market 26.3%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 74.2% · Market 77.3%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+280 → -3402 decision snapshots
Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nb92de6Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-4PassOver 6.5 -239Model 69.0% · Market 70.5%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 6.5 +198Model 31.0% · Market 33.6%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-239 → +1982 decision snapshots
Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nb92de6Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-4PassUnder 7.5 +129Model 42.0% · Market 44.2%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 -142Model 58.0% · Market 59.2%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+129 → -1422 decision snapshots
Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nb92de6Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betWon3-4PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 9.3% · Market 10.6%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 90.7% · Market 92.5%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+841 → -12362 decision snapshots
Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nb92de6Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-4PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 66.4% · Market 70.5%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +198Model 33.6% · Market 33.6%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-239 → +1982 decision snapshots
Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nb92de6Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-4PassOver 5.5 -360Model 76.5% · Market 78.3%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 5.5 +296Model 23.5% · Market 25.3%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-360 → +2962 decision snapshots
Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nb92de6Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betLost3-4PassOver 4.5 -719Model 85.9% · Market 87.8%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 14.1% · Market 14.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-719 → +5742 decision snapshots
Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nb92de6Starts TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no betWon3-4PassOver 12.5 +398Model 20.6% · Market 20.1%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 79.4% · Market 83.0%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+398 → -4892 decision snapshots
Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nb92de6Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betWon3-4PassOver 9.5 +152Model 40.3% · Market 40.2%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 59.7% · Market 63.2%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+152 → -1682 decision snapshots
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n6ca9f9Starts MoneylinePaper Kelly trackedLost7-2Paper stake $121 · P/L -$121Paper betNew York Mets +134Model 45.5% · Market 42.7%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 1.2% · $121Paper betNew York Mets +134Model 45.5% · Market 42.7%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 1.2% · $121+0.0%+134 → +134Logit 0.0006 decision snapshots
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n6ca9f9Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-2PassOver 8.5 -103Model 48.4% · Market 50.7%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 -142Model 57.5% · Market 59.2%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-103 → -1424 decision snapshots
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n6ca9f9Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.6% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.5% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+2.0%+105 → -103Logit 0.0784 decision snapshots
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n6ca9f9Starts TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no betWon7-2PassOver 12.5 +490Model 15.1% · Market 16.9%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 84.9% · Market 85.9%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+490 → -6092 decision snapshots
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n6ca9f9Starts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-2PassOver 3.5 -869Model 87.6% · Market 89.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 12.4% · Market 13.8%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-869 → +6252 decision snapshots
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n6ca9f9Starts TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-2PassOver 5.5 -276Model 70.5% · Market 73.4%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 5.5 +218Model 29.5% · Market 31.4%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-276 → +2182 decision snapshots
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n6ca9f9Starts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betWon7-2PassUnder 6.5 +152Model 37.8% · Market 39.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 6.5 -183Model 62.2% · Market 64.7%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+152 → -1832 decision snapshots
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n6ca9f9Starts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-2PassOver 4.5 -525Model 81.6% · Market 84.0%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 18.4% · Market 19.0%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-525 → +4252 decision snapshots
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n6ca9f9Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-2PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 73.5% · Market 75.4%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +252Model 26.5% · Market 28.4%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-306 → +2522 decision snapshots
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n6ca9f9Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no betWon7-2PassOver 11.5 +373Model 19.5% · Market 21.1%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 80.5% · Market 82.1%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+373 → -4582 decision snapshots
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n6ca9f9Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betLost7-2PassUnder 9.5 -209Model 67.2% · Market 68.6%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +189Model 32.8% · Market 34.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-209 → +1892 decision snapshots
Paper portfolio & staking results

Paper Bankroll

Daily and cumulative return

The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat. This chart begins on Sep 20, the first settled paper bet in the retained read model; it does not imply that earlier games were replayed.

Current bankroll
$9,961
Cumulative
-0.4%
Best day
-0.4%
Worst day
-0.4%
Settled bets
5

Cumulative bankroll return

+0.1%-0.0%-0.2%-0.4%-0.5%Sep 20Sep 21

Daily bankroll return

+0.5%-0.5%Sep 20Sep 21

Kelly Performance

Recommended Kelly bets by market

This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.

Moneyline · opening$9,956

-$44 · -0.4%

Bets
5
Record
2-3
Avg. policy Kelly
1.4%

Full Kelly benchmark $9,761 · tracked -$39 on $698 settled paper stake · -5.5% ROI

Moneyline · pregame$9,906

-$94 · -0.9%

Bets
5
Record
2-3
Avg. policy Kelly
1.3%

Full Kelly benchmark $9,574 · tracked -$89 on $644 settled paper stake · -13.8% ROI

Totals · opening$10,000

+$0 · +0.0%

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Avg. policy Kelly
-

Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake

Totals · pregame$10,000

+$0 · +0.0%

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Avg. policy Kelly
-

Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake

Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure

This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.

Both markets priced
15
Both cleared
0
Rate
0.0%