+$499 · +5.0%
- Bets
- 4
- Record
- 3-1
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 1.6%
Full Kelly benchmark $12,073 · tracked $493 on $629 settled paper stake · +78.4% ROI
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
70 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
155 games unified from 421 stored model snapshots on 2026-09-19.
Games155
Settled129
First edge-2.3%
Pregame edge-0.6%
Average CLV-1.2%
Totals CLV-2.3%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n600b26Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -103Model 49.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +119Model 49.9% · Market 45.7%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 7.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.1%-103 → +119Logit -0.204 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n600b26Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels -131Model 54.7% · Market 56.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Angels -126Model 54.4% · Market 55.8%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%-131 → -126Logit -0.039 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n600b26Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +351Model 16.8% · Market 22.2%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -430Model 83.2% · Market 81.1%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 11.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n600b26Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +140Model 35.3% · Market 42.2%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -155Model 64.7% · Market 61.2%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 9.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -155 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n600b26Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -360Model 71.1% · Market 78.3%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +296Model 28.9% · Market 25.3%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n600b26Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 78.4% · Market 84.9%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 21.6% · Market 18.0%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n600b26Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 11.2% · Market 14.8%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -719Model 88.8% · Market 87.8%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n600b26Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 5.5 +189Model 27.2% · Market 34.6%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -228Model 72.8% · Market 69.5%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n600b26Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -263Model 64.6% · Market 72.5%Edge -7.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +218Model 35.4% · Market 31.4%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 5.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n600b26Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 8.5 -161Model 54.8% · Market 62.2%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +146Model 45.2% · Market 41.2%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 7.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n0e0d2aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Francisco Giants +181Model 39.6% · Market 35.6%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants +313Model 30.1% · Market 24.2%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 7.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -11.4%+181 → +313Logit -0.548 | 6 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n0e0d2aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 +109Model 49.5% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +101Model 50.3% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.9%+109 → +101Logit 0.076 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n0e0d2aStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-10 | PassOver 9.5 +208Model 38.5% · Market 32.5%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -251Model 61.5% · Market 71.5%Edge -10.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n0e0d2aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-10 | PassUnder 8.5 -155Model 51.6% · Market 61.2%Edge -9.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +140Model 48.4% · Market 42.2%Edge +6.2% · Full Kelly 11.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-155 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n0e0d2aStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-10 | PassUnder 5.5 +198Model 24.8% · Market 33.6%Edge -8.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -239Model 75.2% · Market 70.5%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 15.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n0e0d2aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-10 | PassUnder 6.5 +146Model 32.5% · Market 41.2%Edge -8.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -161Model 67.5% · Market 62.2%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 15.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n0e0d2aStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-10 | PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 9.9% · Market 14.8%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -719Model 90.1% · Market 87.8%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 18.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n0e0d2aStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-10 | PassUnder 10.5 -360Model 68.0% · Market 78.3%Edge -10.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +296Model 32.0% · Market 25.3%Edge +6.7% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n0e0d2aStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-10 | PassUnder 11.5 -525Model 75.6% · Market 84.0%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +425Model 24.4% · Market 19.0%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n0e0d2aStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-10 | PassUnder 4.5 +373Model 15.0% · Market 21.1%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -458Model 85.0% · Market 82.1%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 16.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n62e535Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 51.0% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 50.8% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-107 → -107Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n62e535Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMiami Marlins +134Model 45.2% · Market 42.7%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Diego Padres -154Model 59.1% · Market 60.6%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -154 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n62e535Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 8.5 +129Model 40.2% · Market 43.7%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -142Model 59.8% · Market 59.2%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n62e535Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 6.5 -175Model 60.2% · Market 63.6%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +158Model 39.8% · Market 39.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n62e535Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 24.5% · Market 28.4%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 75.5% · Market 75.4%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n62e535Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-7 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 19.7% · Market 20.1%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 80.3% · Market 84.0%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n62e535Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-7 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 13.2% · Market 13.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 86.8% · Market 89.7%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n62e535Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-7 | PassUnder 9.5 -239Model 69.3% · Market 70.5%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +198Model 30.7% · Market 33.6%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n62e535Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-7 | PassUnder 11.5 -489Model 82.1% · Market 83.0%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +398Model 17.9% · Market 20.1%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n62e535Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 5.5 -263Model 68.9% · Market 72.5%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +218Model 31.1% · Market 31.4%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n04a566Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -107Model 50.4% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 +101Model 50.1% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%-107 → +101Logit -0.078 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n04a566Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSeattle Mariners -137Model 54.4% · Market 57.8%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSeattle Mariners -148Model 59.0% · Market 59.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.9%-137 → -148Logit 0.077 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n04a566Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassOver 11.5 +119Model 48.6% · Market 45.7%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -142Model 55.3% · Market 58.7%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -142 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n2f397fStarts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Won3-5Paper stake $200 · P/L $280 | Paper betArizona Diamondbacks +140Model 46.4% · Market 41.7%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 8.1%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betArizona Diamondbacks +134Model 46.4% · Market 42.7%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 1.6% · $160 | +1.1%+140 → +134Logit 0.044 | 6 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n2f397fStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -112Model 50.4% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +105Model 50.7% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%-112 → +105Logit -0.162 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n04a566Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassOver 5.5 -869Model 87.6% · Market 89.7%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +685Model 12.4% · Market 12.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n04a566Starts | TotalOpening line 14.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassUnder 14.5 -322Model 74.3% · Market 76.3%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 14.5 +266Model 25.7% · Market 27.3%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n04a566Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassUnder 12.5 -175Model 61.4% · Market 64.2%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +158Model 38.6% · Market 39.2%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n04a566Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassUnder 9.5 +134Model 40.2% · Market 42.7%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 -161Model 59.8% · Market 61.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n04a566Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassOver 8.5 -251Model 68.8% · Market 71.5%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +208Model 31.2% · Market 32.5%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n04a566Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassUnder 13.5 -263Model 69.3% · Market 72.5%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +218Model 30.7% · Market 31.4%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n04a566Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassOver 6.5 -564Model 82.9% · Market 84.9%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +456Model 17.1% · Market 18.0%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n04a566Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassOver 7.5 -360Model 74.8% · Market 78.3%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +296Model 25.2% · Market 25.3%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n04a566Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +1241Model 6.8% · Market 7.5%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -2042Model 93.2% · Market 95.3%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1241 → -2042 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n2f397fStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassUnder 8.5 -161Model 48.2% · Market 62.2%Edge -14.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +146Model 51.8% · Market 41.2%Edge +10.6% · Full Kelly 18.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n2f397fStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +351Model 13.5% · Market 22.2%Edge -8.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -458Model 86.5% · Market 82.1%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 24.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n2f397fStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassOver 3.5 -719Model 91.2% · Market 87.8%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 27.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 8.8% · Market 15.9%Edge -7.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n2f397fStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassUnder 10.5 -340Model 64.9% · Market 77.3%Edge -12.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +280Model 35.1% · Market 26.3%Edge +8.8% · Full Kelly 11.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n2f397fStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 72.9% · Market 84.9%Edge -12.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 27.1% · Market 18.0%Edge +9.1% · Full Kelly 11.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n2f397fStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassOver 5.5 -239Model 77.4% · Market 70.5%Edge +6.9% · Full Kelly 23.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +198Model 22.6% · Market 33.6%Edge -10.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n2f397fStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassOver 6.5 -155Model 70.2% · Market 61.2%Edge +9.0% · Full Kelly 24.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +140Model 29.8% · Market 42.2%Edge -12.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-155 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n2f397fStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassUnder 9.5 -276Model 58.2% · Market 73.4%Edge -15.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +218Model 41.8% · Market 31.4%Edge +10.4% · Full Kelly 15.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n7cabdfStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 51.2% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +101Model 51.2% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.1%-112 → +101Logit -0.123 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n7cabdfStarts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Lost8-5Paper stake $106 · P/L -$106 | Paper betSt. Louis Cardinals -107Model 53.7% · Market 51.7%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 1.1% · $106 | Paper betSt. Louis Cardinals -107Model 53.7% · Market 51.7%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 1.1% · $106 | +0.0%-107 → -107Logit 0.000 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n7cabdfStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-5 | PassUnder 10.5 -208Model 71.6% · Market 67.5%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 12.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 28.4% · Market 36.6%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n7cabdfStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-5 | PassOver 4.5 -788Model 82.9% · Market 88.7%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 17.1% · Market 14.8%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n7cabdfStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-5 | PassOver 13.5 +456Model 11.5% · Market 18.0%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -564Model 88.5% · Market 84.9%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 23.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n7cabdfStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 78.8% · Market 75.4%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 14.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 21.2% · Market 28.4%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n7cabdfStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-5 | PassOver 12.5 +331Model 16.5% · Market 23.2%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -404Model 83.5% · Market 80.2%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 16.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n7cabdfStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-5 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 88.6% · Market 93.5%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 11.4% · Market 8.5%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1428 → +1074 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n7cabdfStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-5 | PassOver 9.5 +134Model 34.8% · Market 43.2%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -148Model 65.2% · Market 60.2%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 13.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n7cabdfStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-5 | PassUnder 7.5 +146Model 47.5% · Market 41.2%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 11.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -161Model 52.5% · Market 62.2%Edge -9.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n7cabdfStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-5 | PassUnder 6.5 +229Model 35.8% · Market 30.4%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 7.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -276Model 64.2% · Market 73.4%Edge -9.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n7cabdfStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-5 | PassOver 5.5 -404Model 72.4% · Market 80.2%Edge -7.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +313Model 27.6% · Market 24.2%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n43dbf4Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers +105Model 47.3% · Market 48.8%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers +114Model 48.1% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.1%+105 → +114Logit -0.082 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n43dbf4Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 49.6% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 49.4% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.8%-107 → +109Logit -0.154 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n43dbf4Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.4% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -131Model 46.9% · Market 56.7%Edge -9.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -131 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nb90d52Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -121Model 50.5% · Market 54.8%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -6.0%-121 → +105Logit -0.239 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nb90d52Starts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Won6-3Paper stake $148 · P/L $169 | Paper betAtlanta Braves +114Model 49.9% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 1.5% · $148 | Paper betAtlanta Braves +114Model 49.9% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 1.5% · $148 | +0.0%+114 → +114Logit 0.000 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nb90d52Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 91.5% · Market 93.5%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 8.5% · Market 9.6%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1428 → +945 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nb90d52Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassOver 12.5 +331Model 22.5% · Market 23.2%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -404Model 77.5% · Market 80.2%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nb90d52Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 6.5 -263Model 70.9% · Market 72.5%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +218Model 29.1% · Market 31.4%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nb90d52Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassOver 9.5 +134Model 42.6% · Market 43.2%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -148Model 57.4% · Market 60.2%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nb90d52Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 78.0% · Market 79.2%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +313Model 22.0% · Market 24.2%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nb90d52Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassUnder 11.5 -322Model 72.1% · Market 76.3%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +266Model 27.9% · Market 27.3%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nb90d52Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 7.5 -161Model 60.1% · Market 62.2%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +146Model 39.9% · Market 41.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nb90d52Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 86.9% · Market 87.8%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 13.1% · Market 14.8%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66nb90d52Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassOver 10.5 +181Model 35.9% · Market 35.6%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -218Model 64.1% · Market 68.6%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0f4774Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassToronto Blue Jays +101Model 48.7% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassToronto Blue Jays -103Model 49.0% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+101 → -103Logit 0.040 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0f4774Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.3% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -107Model 51.1% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -107 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0f4774Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.7% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -137Model 45.1% · Market 58.7%Edge -13.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -137 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0f4774Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 79.5% · Market 73.4%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 23.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 20.5% · Market 30.4%Edge -9.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0f4774Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 70.1% · Market 81.1%Edge -11.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 29.9% · Market 22.2%Edge +7.7% · Full Kelly 9.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0f4774Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 92.2% · Market 89.7%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 24.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 7.8% · Market 13.8%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0f4774Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassOver 6.5 -183Model 72.7% · Market 65.1%Edge +7.6% · Full Kelly 22.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +165Model 27.3% · Market 38.2%Edge -10.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0f4774Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 61.9% · Market 73.4%Edge -11.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 38.1% · Market 30.4%Edge +7.7% · Full Kelly 11.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0f4774Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -218Model 55.1% · Market 68.6%Edge -13.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +181Model 44.9% · Market 35.6%Edge +9.3% · Full Kelly 14.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0f4774Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 88.0% · Market 84.0%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 24.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 12.0% · Market 20.1%Edge -8.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n412d32Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 50.1% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.8% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+101 → +105Logit -0.039 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n412d32Starts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Won5-6Paper stake $175 · P/L $151 | Paper betPittsburgh Pirates -116Model 57.0% · Market 53.7%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 7.0%Policy Kelly 1.8% · $175 | Paper betPittsburgh Pirates -116Model 57.0% · Market 53.7%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 7.0%Policy Kelly 1.8% · $175 | +0.0%-116 → -116Logit 0.000 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n412d32Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 48.8% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -126Model 52.3% · Market 56.8%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -126 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nff7a52Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds +109Model 47.4% · Market 47.9%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago Cubs -148Model 58.2% · Market 59.7%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+109 → -148 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nff7a52Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -121Model 51.3% · Market 54.8%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +105Model 49.3% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-121 → +105 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n412d32Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 23.7% · Market 24.2%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 76.3% · Market 79.2%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n412d32Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 68.8% · Market 71.5%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 31.2% · Market 32.5%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n412d32Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 33.1% · Market 37.6%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 66.9% · Market 66.6%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n412d32Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 18.7% · Market 19.0%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 81.3% · Market 84.0%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n412d32Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 9.5 +180Model 37.8% · Market 36.2%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -200Model 62.2% · Market 67.1%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+180 → -200 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n412d32Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 10.2% · Market 12.7%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 89.8% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n412d32Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 74.7% · Market 75.4%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 25.3% · Market 28.4%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n412d32Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 84.6% · Market 84.9%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 15.4% · Market 18.0%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nff7a52Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +756Model 10.5% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -1087Model 89.5% · Market 91.6%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nff7a52Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassUnder 13.5 -430Model 78.8% · Market 81.1%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +351Model 21.2% · Market 22.2%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nff7a52Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-2 | PassOver 7.5 -208Model 65.8% · Market 67.5%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +173Model 34.2% · Market 36.6%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nff7a52Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +1241Model 6.8% · Market 7.5%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1684Model 93.2% · Market 94.4%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1241 → -1684 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nff7a52Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -161Model 57.8% · Market 62.2%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +146Model 42.2% · Market 41.2%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nff7a52Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassOver 5.5 -525Model 81.8% · Market 84.0%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +425Model 18.2% · Market 19.0%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nff7a52Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +280Model 24.4% · Market 26.3%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -340Model 75.6% · Market 77.3%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nff7a52Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassUnder 8.5 +129Model 41.3% · Market 44.2%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -142Model 58.7% · Market 59.2%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nff7a52Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-2 | PassOver 11.5 +198Model 33.8% · Market 33.6%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -239Model 66.2% · Market 70.5%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nff7a52Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-2 | PassOver 12.5 +252Model 28.0% · Market 28.4%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -306Model 72.0% · Market 75.4%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nedab32Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +146Model 41.4% · Market 40.6%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +152Model 40.6% · Market 39.7%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+146 → +152Logit -0.040 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nedab32Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.8% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.5% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+101 → +101Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nedab32Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-12 | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.3% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +124Model 50.5% · Market 45.2%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 10.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -6.5%-107 → +124Logit -0.262 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nedab32Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-12 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 74.0% · Market 82.1%Edge -8.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 26.0% · Market 21.1%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nedab32Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-12 | PassOver 9.5 +189Model 40.5% · Market 34.7%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 9.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -209Model 59.5% · Market 68.6%Edge -9.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -209 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nedab32Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-12 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 86.0% · Market 84.0%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 12.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 14.0% · Market 19.0%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nedab32Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-12 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 9.2% · Market 12.7%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 90.8% · Market 89.7%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 11.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nedab32Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-12 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 66.1% · Market 74.4%Edge -8.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 33.9% · Market 29.4%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nedab32Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-12 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 76.6% · Market 73.4%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 12.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 23.4% · Market 30.4%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nedab32Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-12 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 20.8% · Market 16.9%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 79.2% · Market 85.9%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nedab32Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-12 | PassUnder 6.5 +159Model 30.8% · Market 38.6%Edge -7.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -191Model 69.2% · Market 65.6%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 10.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+159 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n412d36Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.1% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +114Model 49.6% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.1%+105 → +114Logit -0.082 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n412d36Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassPhiladelphia Phillies -103Model 51.7% · Market 50.7%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassPhiladelphia Phillies +105Model 50.4% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%-103 → +105Logit -0.078 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n412d36Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-10 | PassUnder 9.5 -199Model 60.3% · Market 66.6%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 60.4% · Market 66.1%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%-199 → -191Logit -0.023 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n412d36Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-10 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 85.5% · Market 85.9%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 14.5% · Market 16.9%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n412d36Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-10 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 33.1% · Market 30.4%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 66.9% · Market 73.4%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n412d36Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-10 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 76.0% · Market 75.4%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 24.0% · Market 29.4%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n412d36Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-10 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 20.2% · Market 18.0%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 79.8% · Market 84.9%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n412d36Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-10 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 9.5% · Market 11.7%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 90.5% · Market 91.6%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n412d36Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-10 | PassUnder 8.5 -126Model 51.1% · Market 55.8%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -126Model 50.3% · Market 56.2%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.5%-126 → -126Logit 0.020 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n412d36Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-10 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 74.7% · Market 80.2%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 25.3% · Market 23.2%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n412d36Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-10 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 31.5% · Market 36.6%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 68.5% · Market 67.5%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66ndf5ccaStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -121Model 50.7% · Market 54.8%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 50.8% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.1%-121 → -107Logit -0.123 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66ndf5ccaStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassTampa Bay Rays -131Model 54.0% · Market 56.7%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTampa Bay Rays -154Model 59.1% · Market 60.6%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.9%-131 → -154Logit 0.162 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66ndf5ccaStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 11.5 +398Model 17.8% · Market 20.1%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -489Model 82.2% · Market 83.0%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66ndf5ccaStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 5.5 -263Model 68.8% · Market 72.5%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +218Model 31.2% · Market 31.4%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66ndf5ccaStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 4.5 -489Model 80.3% · Market 83.0%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 19.7% · Market 20.1%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66ndf5ccaStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 24.4% · Market 28.4%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 75.6% · Market 75.4%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66ndf5ccaStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -239Model 69.4% · Market 70.5%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +198Model 30.6% · Market 33.6%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66ndf5ccaStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 6.5 -168Model 60.1% · Market 63.2%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +152Model 39.9% · Market 40.2%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66ndf5ccaStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 8.5 +140Model 40.1% · Market 42.7%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -154Model 59.9% · Market 60.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -154 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66ndf5ccaStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 86.7% · Market 88.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 13.3% · Market 13.8%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n3ed24cStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBaltimore Orioles +134Model 48.2% · Market 42.7%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 9.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBaltimore Orioles -112Model 52.1% · Market 52.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +10.1%+134 → -112Logit 0.406 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n3ed24cStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.0% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -107Model 51.0% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -107 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n3ed24cStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-0 | PassUnder 6.5 +152Model 27.6% · Market 39.7%Edge -12.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -183Model 72.4% · Market 64.7%Edge +7.8% · Full Kelly 21.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n3ed24cStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-0 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 70.4% · Market 82.1%Edge -11.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 29.6% · Market 21.1%Edge +8.4% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n3ed24cStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-0 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 87.8% · Market 84.0%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 23.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 12.2% · Market 19.0%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n3ed24cStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 92.1% · Market 89.7%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 23.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 7.9% · Market 12.7%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n3ed24cStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-0 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 79.3% · Market 73.4%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 22.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 20.7% · Market 30.4%Edge -9.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n3ed24cStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-0 | PassOver 9.5 +165Model 48.7% · Market 37.7%Edge +11.0% · Full Kelly 17.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -209Model 55.5% · Market 68.6%Edge -13.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+165 → -209 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n3ed24cStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-0 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 62.3% · Market 75.4%Edge -13.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 37.7% · Market 28.4%Edge +9.3% · Full Kelly 13.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n3ed24cStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 50.0% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -142Model 45.5% · Market 59.2%Edge -13.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+109 → -142 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n3ed24cStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-0 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 75.9% · Market 85.9%Edge -10.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 24.1% · Market 16.9%Edge +7.1% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n43dbf4Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-3 | PassUnder 9.5 -200Model 56.9% · Market 66.7%Edge -9.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +180Model 43.1% · Market 35.7%Edge +7.4% · Full Kelly 11.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat. This chart begins on Sep 19, the first settled paper bet in the retained read model; it does not imply that earlier games were replayed.
- Current bankroll
- $10,494
- Cumulative
- +4.9%
- Best day
- +4.9%
- Worst day
- +4.9%
- Settled bets
- 4
Cumulative bankroll return
Daily bankroll return
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
+$432 · +4.3%
- Bets
- 4
- Record
- 3-1
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 1.5%
Full Kelly benchmark $11,772 · tracked $428 on $590 settled paper stake · +72.6% ROI
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 15
- Both cleared
- 0
- Rate
- 0.0%