+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
70 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
164 games unified from 455 stored model snapshots on 2026-09-18.
Games164
Settled133
First edge-1.7%
Pregame edge-0.9%
Average CLV-1.6%
Totals CLV-1.8%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nfc4db8Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Francisco Giants +280Model 40.3% · Market 26.3%Edge +14.0% · Full Kelly 19.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants +252Model 30.9% · Market 28.4%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.1%+280 → +252Logit 0.105 | 8 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nfc4db8Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 48.6% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.1% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+109 → +109Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nfc4db8Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-8 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 61.2% · Market 65.1%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +166Model 37.6% · Market 37.7%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nfc4db8Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-8 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.3% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -126Model 56.4% · Market 56.2%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -126 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nfc4db8Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-8 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 80.5% · Market 84.0%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 19.5% · Market 19.0%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nfc4db8Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-8 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 32.2% · Market 31.4%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 67.8% · Market 72.5%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nfc4db8Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-8 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 85.1% · Market 84.9%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 14.9% · Market 18.0%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nfc4db8Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-8 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 9.8% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 90.2% · Market 91.6%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nfc4db8Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-8 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 24.6% · Market 24.2%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 75.4% · Market 79.2%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nfc4db8Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-8 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 24.6% · Market 28.4%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 75.4% · Market 75.4%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nfc4db8Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-8 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 32.3% · Market 35.6%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 67.7% · Market 68.6%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n21f288Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMiami Marlins +173Model 45.9% · Market 36.6%Edge +9.3% · Full Kelly 14.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins +166Model 38.1% · Market 37.6%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+173 → +166Logit 0.041 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n21f288Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.8% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-103 → -103Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n21f288Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-8 | PassUnder 8.5 -148Model 58.1% · Market 60.2%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +134Model 41.9% · Market 42.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n21f288Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-8 | PassOver 4.5 -489Model 81.4% · Market 83.0%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 18.6% · Market 20.1%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n21f288Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-8 | PassOver 9.5 +198Model 32.3% · Market 33.6%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -239Model 67.7% · Market 70.5%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n21f288Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-8 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 19.1% · Market 21.1%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 80.9% · Market 82.1%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n21f288Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-8 | PassUnder 5.5 +208Model 29.7% · Market 32.5%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -251Model 70.3% · Market 71.5%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n21f288Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-8 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 87.5% · Market 88.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 12.5% · Market 14.8%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n21f288Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-8 | PassUnder 6.5 +152Model 38.3% · Market 40.2%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -168Model 61.7% · Market 63.2%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n21f288Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-8 | PassOver 10.5 +280Model 26.0% · Market 26.3%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -340Model 74.0% · Market 77.3%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nc008f7Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.4% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.1% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+105 → +101Logit 0.039 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nc008f7Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassArizona Diamondbacks +109Model 49.8% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Yankees -103Model 50.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+109 → -103 | 7 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nc008f7Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-2 | PassOver 8.5 -112Model 49.6% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -137Model 46.7% · Market 58.7%Edge -12.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → -137 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nc008f7Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-2 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 91.7% · Market 89.7%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 19.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 8.3% · Market 13.8%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nc008f7Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 12.7% · Market 19.0%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 87.3% · Market 84.0%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 20.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nc008f7Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-2 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 36.6% · Market 29.4%Edge +7.2% · Full Kelly 10.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 63.4% · Market 74.4%Edge -10.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nc008f7Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 28.5% · Market 37.6%Edge -9.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 71.5% · Market 66.6%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 14.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nc008f7Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 28.5% · Market 21.1%Edge +7.3% · Full Kelly 9.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 71.5% · Market 82.1%Edge -10.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nc008f7Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 21.5% · Market 30.4%Edge -8.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 78.5% · Market 73.4%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 19.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nc008f7Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-2 | PassOver 9.5 +188Model 43.3% · Market 35.2%Edge +8.2% · Full Kelly 13.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -209Model 56.7% · Market 68.1%Edge -11.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+188 → -209 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nc008f7Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassOver 12.5 +529Model 23.1% · Market 15.9%Edge +7.2% · Full Kelly 8.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -660Model 76.9% · Market 86.8%Edge -9.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nf1dfe7Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Pending3-0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.3% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.4% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%+101 → +109Logit -0.076 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nf1dfe7Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels -107Model 52.5% · Market 51.7%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Angels -107Model 49.7% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-107 → -107Logit 0.000 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nf1dfe7Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-0 | PassUnder 7.5 +114Model 49.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 42.5% · Market 46.8%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+114 → +119Logit 0.001 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nf1dfe7Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-0 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 60.2% · Market 65.1%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +159Model 39.8% · Market 38.7%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +159 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nf1dfe7Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 14.4% · Market 16.9%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 85.6% · Market 85.9%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nf1dfe7Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 25.4% · Market 23.2%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 74.6% · Market 80.2%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nf1dfe7Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-0 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 76.1% · Market 75.4%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 23.9% · Market 28.4%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nf1dfe7Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 68.6% · Market 68.6%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 31.4% · Market 35.6%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nf1dfe7Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-0 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 79.7% · Market 83.0%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 20.3% · Market 20.1%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nf1dfe7Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 9.5% · Market 12.7%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 90.5% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nf1dfe7Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-0 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 33.1% · Market 30.4%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 66.9% · Market 73.4%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n6534e5Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSt. Louis Cardinals -103Model 55.0% · Market 50.7%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 8.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals -107Model 55.6% · Market 51.7%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 8.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%-103 → -107Logit 0.038 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n6534e5Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -112Model 50.5% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.2% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.1%-112 → -103Logit -0.084 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n6534e5Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-1 | PassUnder 9.5 -219Model 65.3% · Market 69.1%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -218Model 65.3% · Market 68.6%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%-219 → -218Logit -0.022 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n6534e5Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-1 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 82.9% · Market 84.0%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 17.1% · Market 20.1%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n6534e5Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-1 | PassOver 8.5 +129Model 44.5% · Market 44.7%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -142Model 55.5% · Market 59.2%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n6534e5Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-1 | PassOver 6.5 -191Model 64.1% · Market 65.6%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +159Model 35.9% · Market 38.6%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +159 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n6534e5Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-1 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 78.9% · Market 81.1%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 21.1% · Market 22.2%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n6534e5Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-1 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 28.3% · Market 29.4%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 71.7% · Market 74.4%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n6534e5Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-1 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 11.4% · Market 13.8%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 88.6% · Market 89.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n6534e5Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-1 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 27.7% · Market 30.4%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 72.3% · Market 73.4%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n12b7dbStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassHouston Astros -107Model 50.1% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassHouston Astros -103Model 49.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%-107 → -103Logit -0.038 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n12b7dbStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -112Model 49.5% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.9% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%-112 → +105Logit -0.162 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n12b7dbStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 28.2% · Market 35.6%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 71.8% · Market 68.6%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 10.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n12b7dbStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 76.6% · Market 84.0%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 23.4% · Market 19.0%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n12b7dbStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 63.0% · Market 72.5%Edge -9.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 37.0% · Market 31.4%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 8.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n12b7dbStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 7.5 +114Model 38.8% · Market 47.3%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -126Model 61.2% · Market 56.2%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 12.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -126 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n12b7dbStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 12.6% · Market 18.0%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 87.4% · Market 84.9%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 16.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n12b7dbStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 78.7% · Market 76.3%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 10.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 21.3% · Market 27.3%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n12b7dbStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 91.8% · Market 90.6%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 12.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 8.2% · Market 11.7%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n12b7dbStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 28.8% · Market 24.2%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 71.2% · Market 79.2%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n12b7dbStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassOver 9.5 +165Model 43.7% · Market 38.2%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 9.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 56.3% · Market 65.1%Edge -8.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+165 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n676912Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassColorado Rockies +114Model 46.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassColorado Rockies +159Model 39.9% · Market 38.6%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -8.1%+114 → +159Logit -0.333 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n676912Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 10.5 -112Model 49.7% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 -103Model 50.0% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.1%-112 → -103Logit -0.084 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n676912Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassOver 9.5 -148Model 60.3% · Market 60.2%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 +134Model 39.7% · Market 43.2%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n676912Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassUnder 5.5 +625Model 12.1% · Market 13.8%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -788Model 87.9% · Market 88.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n676912Starts | TotalOpening line 14.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassUnder 14.5 -381Model 73.8% · Market 79.2%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 14.5 +313Model 26.2% · Market 24.2%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n676912Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassUnder 11.5 -148Model 54.8% · Market 60.2%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +134Model 45.2% · Market 43.2%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n676912Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassOver 6.5 -525Model 83.2% · Market 84.0%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +425Model 16.8% · Market 19.0%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n676912Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassUnder 7.5 +266Model 24.8% · Market 27.3%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -322Model 75.2% · Market 76.3%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n676912Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassUnder 12.5 -208Model 60.9% · Market 67.5%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +173Model 39.1% · Market 36.6%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n676912Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassUnder 13.5 -290Model 68.8% · Market 74.4%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +240Model 31.2% · Market 29.4%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n676912Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassOver 8.5 -228Model 69.3% · Market 69.5%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +189Model 30.7% · Market 34.6%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n676912Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassUnder 4.5 +1241Model 6.6% · Market 7.5%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -1684Model 93.4% · Market 94.4%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1241 → -1684 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n9e70b5Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.5% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +101Model 51.2% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → +101 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n9e70b5Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassTexas Rangers +109Model 51.4% · Market 47.9%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 6.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTexas Rangers +114Model 45.0% · Market 46.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%+109 → +114Logit -0.045 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n9e70b5Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-7 | PassUnder 9.5 -229Model 53.9% · Market 70.6%Edge -16.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +206Model 46.1% · Market 33.1%Edge +12.9% · Full Kelly 19.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-229 → +206 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n9e70b5Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-7 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 7.5% · Market 13.8%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 92.5% · Market 88.7%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 33.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n9e70b5Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-7 | PassOver 11.5 +398Model 31.0% · Market 20.1%Edge +10.9% · Full Kelly 13.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -489Model 69.0% · Market 83.0%Edge -14.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n9e70b5Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-7 | PassUnder 6.5 +140Model 26.4% · Market 41.7%Edge -15.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -168Model 73.6% · Market 62.7%Edge +10.9% · Full Kelly 29.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n9e70b5Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-7 | PassOver 8.5 +140Model 56.0% · Market 42.7%Edge +13.3% · Full Kelly 24.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -154Model 44.0% · Market 60.7%Edge -16.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -154 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n9e70b5Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-7 | PassUnder 10.5 -322Model 60.7% · Market 76.3%Edge -15.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +266Model 39.3% · Market 27.3%Edge +11.9% · Full Kelly 16.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n9e70b5Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-7 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 11.6% · Market 20.1%Edge -8.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -489Model 88.4% · Market 83.0%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 31.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n9e70b5Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-7 | PassOver 5.5 -251Model 80.2% · Market 71.5%Edge +8.7% · Full Kelly 30.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +208Model 19.8% · Market 32.5%Edge -12.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n96090aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers +101Model 50.2% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers +109Model 47.8% · Market 47.9%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%+101 → +109Logit -0.076 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n96090aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -121Model 50.8% · Market 54.8%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.6% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-121 → +105 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n96090aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-8 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 41.4% · Market 45.7%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 58.6% · Market 58.2%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -137 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n96090aStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost11-8 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 76.9% · Market 76.3%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 23.1% · Market 27.3%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n96090aStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-8 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 13.8% · Market 16.9%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 86.2% · Market 86.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n96090aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost11-8 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 69.6% · Market 69.5%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 30.4% · Market 34.6%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n96090aStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-8 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 65.7% · Market 71.5%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 34.3% · Market 32.5%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n96090aStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-8 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 78.8% · Market 83.0%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 21.2% · Market 20.1%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n96090aStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost11-8 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 41.0% · Market 39.2%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 59.0% · Market 64.2%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n96090aStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-8 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 9.0% · Market 11.7%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 91.0% · Market 91.6%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n96090aStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-8 | PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 73.6% · Market 78.3%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 26.4% · Market 25.3%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n0a0aeaStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassPhiladelphia Phillies -116Model 51.7% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassPhiladelphia Phillies +105Model 53.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 8.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.9%-116 → +105Logit -0.197 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n0a0aeaStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -116Model 51.3% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 50.5% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.0%-116 → -103Logit -0.119 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n0a0aeaStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 79.4% · Market 82.1%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 20.6% · Market 21.1%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n0a0aeaStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -228Model 66.5% · Market 69.5%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +181Model 33.5% · Market 35.6%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n0a0aeaStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +208Model 31.2% · Market 32.5%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -251Model 68.8% · Market 71.5%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n0a0aeaStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassUnder 7.5 +134Model 42.2% · Market 43.2%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -148Model 57.8% · Market 60.2%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n0a0aeaStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassUnder 5.5 +296Model 23.8% · Market 25.3%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 76.2% · Market 79.2%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n0a0aeaStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 74.3% · Market 77.3%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +280Model 25.7% · Market 26.3%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n0a0aeaStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassOver 9.5 +140Model 40.2% · Market 42.2%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -155Model 59.8% · Market 61.2%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -155 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n0a0aeaStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 90.6% · Market 92.5%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 9.4% · Market 10.6%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n0a0aeaStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 85.7% · Market 87.8%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 14.3% · Market 15.9%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nacf972Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCleveland Guardians -161Model 60.2% · Market 61.7%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +189Model 35.4% · Market 34.6%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +189 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nacf972Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 48.6% · Market 51.7%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.8%-107 → +109Logit -0.154 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nacf972Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 56.6% · Market 57.8%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 43.4% · Market 46.2%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +119 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nacf972Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 39.0% · Market 39.2%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 61.0% · Market 64.7%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nacf972Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 32.2% · Market 34.6%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 67.8% · Market 69.5%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nacf972Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 19.7% · Market 20.1%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 80.3% · Market 83.0%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nacf972Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 75.2% · Market 79.2%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 24.8% · Market 24.2%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nacf972Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 32.4% · Market 32.5%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 67.6% · Market 71.5%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nacf972Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 24.5% · Market 27.3%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 75.5% · Market 76.3%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nacf972Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 9.8% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 90.2% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nacf972Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 85.2% · Market 85.9%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 14.8% · Market 16.9%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nb39b45Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBoston Red Sox +101Model 46.8% · Market 49.8%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTampa Bay Rays -137Model 57.9% · Market 57.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → -137 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nb39b45Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Pending4-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +119Model 48.9% · Market 45.7%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +124Model 48.9% · Market 44.6%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 7.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+119 → +124Logit -0.041 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nb39b45Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Pending4-2 | PassOver 7.5 -112Model 49.2% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +124Model 49.5% · Market 44.6%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 8.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -8.2%-112 → +124Logit -0.329 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nb39b45Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassOver 11.5 +490Model 19.4% · Market 16.9%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -609Model 80.6% · Market 85.9%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nb39b45Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassOver 10.5 +331Model 26.4% · Market 23.2%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -404Model 73.6% · Market 80.2%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nb39b45Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 8.5 -183Model 57.6% · Market 65.1%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +165Model 42.4% · Market 38.2%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 7.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nb39b45Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 12.5 -869Model 85.0% · Market 89.7%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +685Model 15.0% · Market 12.7%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nb39b45Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassUnder 5.5 +166Model 29.4% · Market 37.6%Edge -8.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -208Model 70.6% · Market 67.5%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 9.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nb39b45Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -306Model 67.3% · Market 75.4%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +252Model 32.7% · Market 28.4%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nb39b45Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 87.7% · Market 86.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +490Model 12.3% · Market 16.9%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nb39b45Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +313Model 18.4% · Market 24.2%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -404Model 81.6% · Market 80.2%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 7.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n9a9f55Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBaltimore Orioles +140Model 48.7% · Market 41.7%Edge +7.0% · Full Kelly 12.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBaltimore Orioles +129Model 46.1% · Market 43.7%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.0%+140 → +129Logit 0.082 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n9a9f55Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 50.0% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 50.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.8%-107 → +109Logit -0.154 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n9a9f55Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-5 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 92.6% · Market 91.6%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 12.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 7.4% · Market 10.6%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n9a9f55Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 19.6% · Market 27.3%Edge -7.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 80.4% · Market 76.3%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 17.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n9a9f55Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-5 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 74.2% · Market 82.1%Edge -7.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 25.8% · Market 21.1%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n9a9f55Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-5 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 46.5% · Market 39.2%Edge +7.3% · Full Kelly 12.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 53.5% · Market 64.2%Edge -10.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n9a9f55Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-5 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 73.9% · Market 69.5%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 14.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 26.1% · Market 34.6%Edge -8.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n9a9f55Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 60.3% · Market 70.5%Edge -10.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 39.7% · Market 33.6%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 9.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n9a9f55Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 68.6% · Market 78.3%Edge -9.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 31.4% · Market 25.3%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 8.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n9a9f55Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 36.3% · Market 45.7%Edge -9.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 63.7% · Market 57.8%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 13.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -137 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n9a9f55Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 11.4% · Market 14.8%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 88.6% · Market 87.8%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n1e9e6eStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +109Model 50.6% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 50.0% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.9%+109 → -103Logit 0.116 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n1e9e6eStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds +109Model 48.2% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +124Model 46.3% · Market 44.6%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.2%+109 → +124Logit -0.129 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n1e9e6eStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -208Model 62.2% · Market 67.5%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 37.8% · Market 36.6%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n1e9e6eStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -155Model 55.4% · Market 61.2%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +140Model 44.6% · Market 42.7%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 5.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-155 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n1e9e6eStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassOver 13.5 +490Model 17.9% · Market 16.9%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -609Model 82.1% · Market 85.9%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n1e9e6eStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 5.5 +296Model 20.7% · Market 25.3%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -360Model 79.3% · Market 78.3%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n1e9e6eStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +208Model 27.5% · Market 32.5%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -263Model 72.5% · Market 72.5%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n1e9e6eStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 12.2% · Market 14.8%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 87.8% · Market 87.8%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n1e9e6eStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassOver 7.5 -155Model 62.0% · Market 61.2%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +140Model 38.0% · Market 42.2%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-155 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n1e9e6eStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassUnder 12.5 -430Model 75.8% · Market 81.1%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +351Model 24.2% · Market 22.2%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n1e9e6eStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -322Model 70.3% · Market 76.3%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +266Model 29.7% · Market 27.3%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n1e9e6eStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 7.9% · Market 9.6%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 92.1% · Market 92.5%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+945 → -1236 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n979eb7Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.1% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.2% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+101 → +101Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n979eb7Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassKansas City Royals +146Model 43.9% · Market 40.6%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassKansas City Royals +159Model 40.9% · Market 38.6%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%+146 → +159Logit -0.085 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n979eb7Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-8 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.9% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 44.4% · Market 45.2%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.6%+101 → +124Logit -0.185 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n979eb7Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-8 | PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 76.3% · Market 78.3%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 23.7% · Market 25.3%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n979eb7Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-8 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 68.7% · Market 70.5%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 31.3% · Market 33.6%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n979eb7Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-8 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 18.8% · Market 20.1%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 81.2% · Market 83.0%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n979eb7Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-8 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 89.9% · Market 91.6%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 10.1% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n979eb7Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-8 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 37.9% · Market 39.2%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 62.1% · Market 64.2%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n979eb7Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-8 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 15.4% · Market 16.9%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 84.6% · Market 86.8%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n979eb7Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-8 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 25.3% · Market 27.3%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 74.7% · Market 77.3%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n979eb7Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-8 | PassOver 6.5 -239Model 67.0% · Market 70.5%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 33.0% · Market 34.6%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
No settled paper bets are available yet. The trend begins after the first recommended stake is graded.
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 15
- Both cleared
- 0
- Rate
- 0.0%