+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
70 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
102 games unified from 287 stored model snapshots on 2026-09-17.
Games102
Settled84
First edge-1.5%
Pregame edge-0.9%
Average CLV-1.6%
Totals CLV-2.6%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n5a4402Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.1% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +109Model 50.2% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → +109 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n5a4402Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels -112Model 53.8% · Market 52.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Angels -112Model 51.1% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-112 → -112Logit 0.000 | 9 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n5a4402Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassUnder 9.5 -252Model 61.9% · Market 72.0%Edge -10.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +226Model 38.1% · Market 31.1%Edge +7.1% · Full Kelly 10.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-252 → +226 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n5a4402Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +351Model 15.3% · Market 22.2%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -430Model 84.7% · Market 81.1%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 19.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n5a4402Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 76.1% · Market 84.9%Edge -8.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 23.9% · Market 18.0%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 7.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n5a4402Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 48.9% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +146Model 48.1% · Market 40.7%Edge +7.4% · Full Kelly 12.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -11.0%-107 → +146Logit -0.446 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n5a4402Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassOver 5.5 -228Model 74.9% · Market 69.5%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 17.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +189Model 25.1% · Market 34.6%Edge -9.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n5a4402Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 89.9% · Market 86.8%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 23.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 10.1% · Market 15.9%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n5a4402Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassUnder 6.5 +129Model 32.9% · Market 43.7%Edge -10.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -154Model 67.1% · Market 60.6%Edge +6.5% · Full Kelly 16.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -154 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n5a4402Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassUnder 12.5 -788Model 81.0% · Market 88.7%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +574Model 19.0% · Market 14.8%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n5a4402Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassUnder 10.5 -340Model 68.5% · Market 77.3%Edge -8.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +280Model 31.5% · Market 26.3%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 7.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0e51ddStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassTexas Rangers -103Model 49.8% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBoston Red Sox -121Model 54.8% · Market 54.8%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -121 | 9 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0e51ddStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 49.6% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.7% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+109 → +105Logit 0.037 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0e51ddStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 85.1% · Market 84.9%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 14.9% · Market 18.0%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0e51ddStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 90.2% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 9.8% · Market 12.7%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0e51ddStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassUnder 9.5 -200Model 61.0% · Market 67.1%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +180Model 39.0% · Market 36.2%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0e51ddStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 24.6% · Market 22.2%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 75.4% · Market 81.1%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0e51ddStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 67.8% · Market 66.6%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 32.2% · Market 37.6%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0e51ddStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.9% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -131Model 51.1% · Market 57.3%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -131 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0e51ddStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 32.3% · Market 29.4%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 67.7% · Market 74.4%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0e51ddStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 19.6% · Market 16.9%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 80.4% · Market 85.9%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n0e51ddStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 24.6% · Market 29.4%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 75.4% · Market 74.4%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n976b18Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -116Model 50.8% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 50.7% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%-116 → -107Logit -0.081 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n976b18Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers +109Model 49.5% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers -103Model 55.0% · Market 50.7%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.9%+109 → -103Logit 0.116 | 9 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n976b18Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassOver 9.5 +152Model 38.8% · Market 40.2%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 61.2% · Market 63.2%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n976b18Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-3 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 80.5% · Market 82.1%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 19.5% · Market 21.1%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n976b18Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassOver 5.5 -360Model 75.2% · Market 78.3%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +296Model 24.8% · Market 25.3%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n976b18Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-3 | PassUnder 7.5 +129Model 43.5% · Market 44.2%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -142Model 56.5% · Market 59.2%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n976b18Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 67.8% · Market 70.5%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 32.2% · Market 33.6%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n976b18Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-3 | PassUnder 6.5 +198Model 32.4% · Market 33.6%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -239Model 67.6% · Market 70.5%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n976b18Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 9.9% · Market 10.6%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 90.1% · Market 91.6%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n976b18Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-3 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 85.0% · Market 86.8%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 15.0% · Market 15.9%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n976b18Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-3 | PassUnder 11.5 -322Model 75.5% · Market 76.3%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +266Model 24.5% · Market 27.3%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n133c8fStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassPhiladelphia Phillies +109Model 51.7% · Market 47.9%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 7.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassPhiladelphia Phillies +105Model 48.5% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+109 → +105Logit 0.037 | 9 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n133c8fStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 48.1% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 48.6% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+101 → +105Logit -0.039 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n133c8fStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-0 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.9% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +114Model 48.9% · Market 47.3%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.5%-103 → +114Logit -0.138 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n133c8fStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-0 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 33.5% · Market 39.2%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 66.5% · Market 65.1%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n133c8fStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-0 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 71.2% · Market 77.3%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 28.8% · Market 26.3%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n133c8fStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-0 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 72.9% · Market 71.5%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 27.1% · Market 32.5%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n133c8fStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 12.0% · Market 10.6%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 88.0% · Market 92.5%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1236 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n133c8fStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-0 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 20.1% · Market 24.2%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 79.9% · Market 79.2%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n133c8fStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-0 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 37.1% · Market 34.6%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 62.9% · Market 69.5%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n133c8fStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-0 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 84.5% · Market 83.0%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 8.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 15.5% · Market 20.1%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n133c8fStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-0 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 82.1% · Market 86.8%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 17.9% · Market 15.9%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n1ebb50Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassHouston Astros -131Model 56.3% · Market 56.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassKansas City Royals +124Model 43.0% · Market 44.6%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +124 | 7 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n1ebb50Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 50.8% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.6% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%-103 → +105Logit -0.078 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n1ebb50Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -142Model 60.5% · Market 59.2%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +129Model 39.5% · Market 43.7%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +129 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n1ebb50Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 32.9% · Market 37.1%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -199Model 67.1% · Market 66.6%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n1ebb50Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +625Model 14.5% · Market 13.8%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -788Model 85.5% · Market 88.7%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n1ebb50Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 9.5% · Market 8.5%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 90.5% · Market 93.5%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1074 → -1428 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n1ebb50Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassOver 5.5 -430Model 75.9% · Market 81.1%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +351Model 24.1% · Market 22.2%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n1ebb50Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassUnder 7.5 +140Model 42.8% · Market 41.7%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -175Model 57.2% · Market 63.6%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n1ebb50Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 12.5 -381Model 80.0% · Market 79.2%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +313Model 20.0% · Market 24.2%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n1ebb50Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 13.5 -564Model 85.6% · Market 84.9%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +456Model 14.4% · Market 18.0%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n1ebb50Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +240Model 31.6% · Market 29.4%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -290Model 68.4% · Market 74.4%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n1ebb50Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -290Model 74.8% · Market 74.4%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +240Model 25.2% · Market 29.4%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n3400b0Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 +101Model 50.2% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 +101Model 50.1% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+101 → +101Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n3400b0Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassColorado Rockies +140Model 45.7% · Market 41.7%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassColorado Rockies +166Model 39.8% · Market 37.6%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.1%+140 → +166Logit -0.171 | 7 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n3400b0Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassUnder 8.5 +198Model 31.3% · Market 33.6%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -239Model 68.7% · Market 70.5%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n3400b0Starts | TotalOpening line 15.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassOver 15.5 +398Model 20.1% · Market 20.1%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 15.5 -489Model 79.9% · Market 83.0%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n3400b0Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassUnder 9.5 +134Model 40.3% · Market 43.2%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 -148Model 59.7% · Market 60.2%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n3400b0Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +456Model 17.2% · Market 18.0%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -564Model 82.8% · Market 84.9%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n3400b0Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-2 | PassOver 7.5 -322Model 74.8% · Market 76.3%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +266Model 25.2% · Market 27.3%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n3400b0Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-2 | PassOver 5.5 -869Model 87.6% · Market 89.7%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +685Model 12.4% · Market 12.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n3400b0Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-2 | PassUnder 12.5 -199Model 61.5% · Market 66.6%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +159Model 38.5% · Market 38.6%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +159 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n3400b0Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassOver 13.5 +218Model 30.7% · Market 31.4%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -263Model 69.3% · Market 72.5%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n3400b0Starts | TotalOpening line 14.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-2 | PassUnder 14.5 -360Model 74.3% · Market 78.3%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 14.5 +296Model 25.7% · Market 25.3%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n3400b0Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-2 | PassOver 11.5 +129Model 44.6% · Market 44.2%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -142Model 55.4% · Market 59.2%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n2a8871Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +266Model 35.9% · Market 27.3%Edge +8.6% · Full Kelly 11.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +229Model 30.5% · Market 30.4%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.1%+266 → +229Logit 0.150 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n2a8871Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 50.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 50.1% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%-107 → +101Logit -0.078 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n2a8871Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-10 | PassUnder 9.5 -228Model 64.1% · Market 69.5%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +189Model 35.9% · Market 34.6%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n2a8871Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-10 | PassUnder 8.5 -137Model 54.3% · Market 58.7%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +124Model 45.7% · Market 44.6%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n2a8871Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-10 | PassOver 6.5 -183Model 65.1% · Market 65.1%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +165Model 34.9% · Market 38.2%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n2a8871Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-10 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 83.5% · Market 84.0%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 16.5% · Market 19.0%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n2a8871Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-10 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 77.8% · Market 82.1%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 22.2% · Market 21.1%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n2a8871Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-10 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 26.8% · Market 29.4%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 73.2% · Market 74.4%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n2a8871Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-10 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 10.9% · Market 13.8%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 89.1% · Market 89.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n2a8871Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-10 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 70.5% · Market 75.4%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 29.5% · Market 28.4%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nec88d6Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds +140Model 45.3% · Market 41.7%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +140Model 40.2% · Market 41.7%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+140 → +140Logit 0.000 | 7 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nec88d6Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -116Model 51.3% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 +105Model 51.3% · Market 48.8%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.9%-116 → +105Logit -0.197 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nec88d6Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -191Model 70.8% · Market 66.1%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 15.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -191Model 70.8% · Market 65.6%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 15.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%-191 → -191Logit -0.020 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nec88d6Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-2 | PassOver 12.5 +218Model 23.8% · Market 31.4%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -263Model 76.2% · Market 72.5%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 13.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nec88d6Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-2 | PassOver 10.5 +114Model 37.3% · Market 47.3%Edge -10.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -126Model 62.7% · Market 56.8%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 15.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -126 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nec88d6Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +1074Model 12.5% · Market 8.5%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -1428Model 87.5% · Market 93.5%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1074 → -1428 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nec88d6Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-2 | PassOver 3.5 -2580Model 91.9% · Market 96.3%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1775Model 8.1% · Market 5.3%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-2580 → +1775 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nec88d6Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-2 | PassUnder 7.5 +208Model 38.6% · Market 32.5%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -251Model 61.4% · Market 71.5%Edge -10.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nec88d6Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-2 | PassOver 6.5 -430Model 72.0% · Market 81.1%Edge -9.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +351Model 28.0% · Market 22.2%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 7.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nec88d6Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-2 | PassOver 5.5 -660Model 78.8% · Market 86.8%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +529Model 21.2% · Market 15.9%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nec88d6Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-2 | PassUnder 8.5 +152Model 46.0% · Market 39.7%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 10.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -183Model 54.0% · Market 64.7%Edge -10.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66nec88d6Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-2 | PassOver 13.5 +313Model 17.5% · Market 24.2%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -381Model 82.5% · Market 79.2%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 15.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n00a63bStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassPittsburgh Pirates +119Model 47.0% · Market 45.7%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMilwaukee Brewers -142Model 56.0% · Market 58.7%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -142 | 9 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n00a63bStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.5% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+105 → +105Logit 0.000 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n00a63bStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-7 | PassUnder 5.5 +331Model 22.0% · Market 23.2%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -404Model 78.0% · Market 80.2%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n00a63bStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-7 | PassOver 4.5 -788Model 86.9% · Market 88.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +625Model 13.1% · Market 13.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n00a63bStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-7 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 28.0% · Market 28.4%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 72.0% · Market 75.4%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n00a63bStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-7 | PassOver 7.5 -161Model 60.3% · Market 61.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +134Model 39.7% · Market 42.7%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n00a63bStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-7 | PassUnder 6.5 +218Model 29.0% · Market 31.4%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -263Model 71.0% · Market 72.5%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n00a63bStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-7 | PassOver 9.5 +105Model 48.2% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +134Model 42.8% · Market 43.2%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.6%+105 → +134Logit -0.225 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n00a63bStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-7 | PassUnder 10.5 -191Model 63.9% · Market 66.6%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 36.1% · Market 36.6%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n00a63bStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-7 | PassUnder 12.5 -404Model 77.3% · Market 80.2%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +331Model 22.7% · Market 23.2%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n00a63bStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-7 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 91.5% · Market 92.5%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 8.5% · Market 9.6%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +945 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n00a63bStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-7 | PassOver 13.5 +425Model 16.6% · Market 19.0%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -525Model 83.4% · Market 84.0%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
No settled paper bets are available yet. The trend begins after the first recommended stake is graded.
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 9
- Both cleared
- 0
- Rate
- 0.0%