+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
70 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
165 games unified from 451 stored model snapshots on 2026-09-16.
Games165
Settled137
First edge-0.8%
Pregame edge-1.6%
Average CLV-1.9%
Totals CLV-2.5%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n4ffabfStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMiami Marlins +109Model 45.1% · Market 47.9%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassArizona Diamondbacks -142Model 57.7% · Market 58.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+109 → -142 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n4ffabfStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +109Model 50.6% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +114Model 50.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 7.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%+109 → +114Logit -0.045 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n4ffabfStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassOver 9.5 +105Model 48.0% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -137Model 61.9% · Market 58.2%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 9.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -137 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n4ffabfStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 10.1% · Market 8.5%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 89.9% · Market 93.5%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1074 → -1428 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n4ffabfStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassOver 5.5 -404Model 74.8% · Market 80.2%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +331Model 25.2% · Market 23.2%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n4ffabfStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassUnder 13.5 -564Model 86.6% · Market 84.9%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 10.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +456Model 13.4% · Market 18.0%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n4ffabfStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassUnder 12.5 -381Model 81.1% · Market 79.2%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 9.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +313Model 18.9% · Market 24.2%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n4ffabfStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 31.5% · Market 37.1%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -191Model 68.5% · Market 66.1%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 8.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n4ffabfStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassUnder 6.5 +240Model 32.9% · Market 29.4%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -290Model 67.1% · Market 74.4%Edge -7.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n4ffabfStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassUnder 11.5 -290Model 76.1% · Market 74.4%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +240Model 23.9% · Market 29.4%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n4ffabfStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassOver 7.5 -168Model 55.8% · Market 62.7%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +140Model 44.2% · Market 41.7%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n4ffabfStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassOver 4.5 -788Model 84.7% · Market 88.7%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +625Model 15.3% · Market 13.8%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n0db9c2Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels +105Model 50.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Angels +109Model 46.3% · Market 47.9%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+105 → +109Logit -0.037 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n0db9c2Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +114Model 50.3% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 49.9% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.1%+114 → +109Logit 0.045 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n0db9c2Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 10.5% · Market 12.7%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 89.5% · Market 90.6%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n0db9c2Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-2 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 18.3% · Market 18.0%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 81.7% · Market 84.9%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n0db9c2Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 76.8% · Market 81.1%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 23.2% · Market 22.2%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n0db9c2Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-2 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 48.7% · Market 50.7%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 47.1% · Market 46.7%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%-103 → +114Logit -0.161 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n0db9c2Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 69.4% · Market 74.4%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 30.6% · Market 29.4%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n0db9c2Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 74.0% · Market 73.4%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 26.0% · Market 30.4%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n0db9c2Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 15.9% · Market 18.0%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 84.1% · Market 84.9%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n0db9c2Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -200Model 62.8% · Market 67.1%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +180Model 37.2% · Market 36.2%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n0db9c2Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-2 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 66.2% · Market 66.6%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 33.8% · Market 37.6%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n80af7fStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 +109Model 50.2% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 +105Model 50.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+109 → +105Logit 0.037 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n80af7fStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassColorado Rockies +173Model 45.3% · Market 36.6%Edge +8.7% · Full Kelly 13.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassColorado Rockies +146Model 39.5% · Market 40.6%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +4.0%+173 → +146Logit 0.170 | 6 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n80af7fStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-3 | PassOver 12.5 +152Model 37.4% · Market 40.2%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -175Model 62.6% · Market 63.6%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n80af7fStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-3 | PassUnder 7.5 +296Model 26.0% · Market 25.3%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -360Model 74.0% · Market 78.3%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n80af7fStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-3 | PassOver 11.5 +101Model 48.7% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -137Model 56.4% · Market 57.8%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → -137 | 5 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n80af7fStarts | TotalOpening line 14.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-3 | PassUnder 14.5 -322Model 75.3% · Market 76.3%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 14.5 +266Model 24.7% · Market 27.3%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n80af7fStarts | TotalOpening line 15.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-3 | PassOver 15.5 +373Model 19.3% · Market 21.1%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 15.5 -458Model 80.7% · Market 82.1%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n80af7fStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-3 | PassUnder 13.5 -251Model 70.3% · Market 71.5%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +208Model 29.7% · Market 32.5%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n80af7fStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-3 | PassOver 6.5 -609Model 82.2% · Market 85.9%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +490Model 17.8% · Market 16.9%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n80af7fStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-3 | PassOver 8.5 -263Model 67.8% · Market 72.5%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +218Model 32.2% · Market 31.4%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n80af7fStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-3 | PassUnder 9.5 +146Model 41.3% · Market 40.7%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 -175Model 58.7% · Market 63.6%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n80af7fStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-3 | PassOver 5.5 -869Model 87.1% · Market 89.7%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +685Model 12.9% · Market 12.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n5167f3Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassHouston Astros -142Model 57.8% · Market 58.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassKansas City Royals +140Model 41.2% · Market 41.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +140 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n5167f3Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 50.7% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +114Model 50.2% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%-103 → +114Logit -0.161 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n5167f3Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -183Model 64.0% · Market 65.6%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +165Model 36.0% · Market 38.2%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n5167f3Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassOver 9.5 +124Model 42.7% · Market 44.6%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +129Model 42.7% · Market 44.2%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%+124 → +129Logit -0.020 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n5167f3Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 91.6% · Market 93.5%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 8.4% · Market 8.5%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1428 → +1074 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n5167f3Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -290Model 72.0% · Market 74.4%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +240Model 28.0% · Market 29.4%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n5167f3Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-2 | PassOver 12.5 +313Model 22.6% · Market 24.2%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -404Model 77.4% · Market 80.2%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n5167f3Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-2 | PassOver 7.5 -175Model 60.2% · Market 63.6%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +140Model 39.8% · Market 41.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n5167f3Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +625Model 13.0% · Market 13.8%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -788Model 87.0% · Market 88.7%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n5167f3Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassOver 5.5 -430Model 78.1% · Market 81.1%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +331Model 21.9% · Market 23.2%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n5167f3Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassOver 6.5 -290Model 71.0% · Market 74.4%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +229Model 29.0% · Market 30.4%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n5167f3Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-2 | PassOver 13.5 +490Model 16.5% · Market 16.9%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -609Model 83.5% · Market 85.9%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nf786edStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBoston Red Sox +101Model 50.2% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBoston Red Sox -112Model 50.8% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.1%+101 → -112Logit 0.123 | 7 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nf786edStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.0% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 49.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%-103 → +109Logit -0.116 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nf786edStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 35.5% · Market 30.4%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 7.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 64.5% · Market 73.4%Edge -8.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nf786edStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 13.2% · Market 16.9%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 86.8% · Market 85.9%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nf786edStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 27.5% · Market 23.2%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 72.5% · Market 81.1%Edge -8.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nf786edStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 57.8% · Market 66.1%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 42.2% · Market 37.1%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 8.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nf786edStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 91.4% · Market 90.6%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 7.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 8.6% · Market 11.7%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nf786edStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 22.2% · Market 28.4%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 77.8% · Market 75.4%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 9.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nf786edStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 50.0% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 52.2% · Market 47.3%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 10.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.6%+109 → +114Logit -0.023 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66nf786edStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 70.6% · Market 67.5%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 9.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 29.4% · Market 36.6%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nab47e8Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago Cubs -131Model 53.9% · Market 56.7%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAtlanta Braves +134Model 43.0% · Market 42.7%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +134 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nab47e8Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -112Model 49.4% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -103Model 50.9% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → -103 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nab47e8Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-8 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 91.8% · Market 88.7%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 27.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 8.2% · Market 13.8%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nab47e8Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-8 | PassUnder 5.5 +208Model 21.3% · Market 32.5%Edge -11.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -251Model 78.7% · Market 71.5%Edge +7.2% · Full Kelly 25.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nab47e8Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-8 | PassOver 10.5 +280Model 36.8% · Market 26.3%Edge +10.5% · Full Kelly 14.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -340Model 63.2% · Market 77.3%Edge -14.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nab47e8Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-8 | PassUnder 6.5 +146Model 28.3% · Market 40.7%Edge -12.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -175Model 71.7% · Market 63.6%Edge +8.1% · Full Kelly 22.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nab47e8Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-8 | PassUnder 11.5 -525Model 71.3% · Market 84.0%Edge -12.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +425Model 28.7% · Market 19.0%Edge +9.7% · Full Kelly 12.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nab47e8Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-8 | PassOver 12.5 +574Model 23.3% · Market 14.8%Edge +8.5% · Full Kelly 9.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -719Model 76.7% · Market 87.8%Edge -11.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nab47e8Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-8 | PassOver 9.5 +206Model 43.6% · Market 33.1%Edge +10.5% · Full Kelly 16.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -229Model 56.4% · Market 70.1%Edge -13.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+206 → -229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nab47e8Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-8 | PassUnder 8.5 -155Model 46.4% · Market 61.2%Edge -14.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +140Model 53.6% · Market 42.2%Edge +11.4% · Full Kelly 20.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-155 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nab47e8Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-8 | PassOver 4.5 -489Model 87.4% · Market 83.0%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 25.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 12.6% · Market 20.1%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n811f44Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBaltimore Orioles +114Model 51.4% · Market 46.7%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 8.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBaltimore Orioles -103Model 50.2% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +4.0%+114 → -103Logit 0.161 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n811f44Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-1 | PassOver 9.5 +124Model 36.7% · Market 45.2%Edge -8.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +119Model 47.7% · Market 45.7%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.5%+124 → +119Logit 0.020 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n811f44Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-1 | PassUnder 7.5 +152Model 45.6% · Market 40.2%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 9.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -175Model 54.4% · Market 64.2%Edge -9.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n811f44Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-1 | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 51.2% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +124Model 53.4% · Market 45.7%Edge +7.7% · Full Kelly 15.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -7.1%-112 → +124Logit -0.286 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n811f44Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-1 | PassUnder 4.5 +685Model 16.1% · Market 12.7%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -869Model 83.9% · Market 89.7%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n811f44Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-1 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 10.7% · Market 8.5%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 89.3% · Market 93.5%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1074 → -1428 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n811f44Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-1 | PassUnder 5.5 +373Model 26.3% · Market 21.1%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -458Model 73.7% · Market 82.1%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n811f44Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-1 | PassOver 6.5 -306Model 65.8% · Market 75.4%Edge -9.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +252Model 34.2% · Market 28.4%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 8.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n811f44Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-1 | PassUnder 10.5 -191Model 69.9% · Market 65.6%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 12.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +159Model 30.1% · Market 38.6%Edge -8.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +159 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n811f44Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-1 | PassUnder 11.5 -276Model 77.3% · Market 73.4%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 14.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +229Model 22.7% · Market 30.4%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n811f44Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-1 | PassOver 12.5 +296Model 17.9% · Market 25.3%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -360Model 82.1% · Market 78.3%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 17.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n0bdf35Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals +114Model 47.9% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals +166Model 43.5% · Market 37.6%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 9.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -9.1%+114 → +166Logit -0.376 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n0bdf35Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 50.1% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +114Model 49.5% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → +114 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n0bdf35Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-0 | PassUnder 5.5 +351Model 18.6% · Market 22.2%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -430Model 81.4% · Market 81.1%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n0bdf35Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-0 | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 49.7% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +152Model 34.9% · Market 40.2%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -11.5%-107 → +152Logit -0.466 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n0bdf35Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-0 | PassUnder 6.5 +240Model 25.0% · Market 29.5%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -265Model 75.0% · Market 73.5%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 8.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -265 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n0bdf35Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-0 | PassOver 4.5 -869Model 89.2% · Market 89.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +685Model 10.8% · Market 12.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n0bdf35Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-0 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 6.9% · Market 9.6%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 93.1% · Market 93.5%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+945 → -1428 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n0bdf35Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-0 | PassUnder 10.5 -199Model 58.7% · Market 66.6%Edge -7.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +166Model 41.3% · Market 37.6%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n0bdf35Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-0 | PassOver 9.5 +134Model 48.1% · Market 44.2%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 9.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -142Model 51.9% · Market 59.2%Edge -7.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n0bdf35Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-0 | PassOver 11.5 +229Model 32.9% · Market 30.4%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -276Model 67.1% · Market 73.4%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n3567c3Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds +152Model 42.7% · Market 39.7%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +181Model 38.0% · Market 35.6%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.1%+152 → +181Logit -0.174 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n3567c3Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 50.2% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 50.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → +109 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n3567c3Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 53.1% · Market 63.2%Edge -10.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +165Model 46.9% · Market 38.7%Edge +8.2% · Full Kelly 14.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n3567c3Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 64.0% · Market 58.2%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 14.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 36.0% · Market 45.7%Edge -9.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n3567c3Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 73.8% · Market 83.0%Edge -9.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 26.2% · Market 20.1%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 7.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n3567c3Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 88.7% · Market 86.8%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 14.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 11.3% · Market 16.9%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n3567c3Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 59.9% · Market 70.5%Edge -10.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 40.1% · Market 33.6%Edge +6.6% · Full Kelly 9.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n3567c3Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 68.2% · Market 78.3%Edge -10.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 31.8% · Market 25.3%Edge +6.6% · Full Kelly 8.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n3567c3Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 7.3% · Market 10.6%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 92.7% · Market 92.5%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1236 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n3567c3Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 74.1% · Market 69.5%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 15.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 25.9% · Market 34.6%Edge -8.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n3567c3Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 80.6% · Market 76.3%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 18.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 19.4% · Market 27.3%Edge -7.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nca25f9Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Pending3-4 | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 50.2% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +114Model 49.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 5.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.0%-107 → +114Logit -0.199 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nca25f9Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +189Model 38.9% · Market 34.6%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTampa Bay Rays -175Model 66.2% · Market 63.6%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 7.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -175 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nca25f9Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 48.8% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -126Model 51.7% · Market 56.2%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -126 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nca25f9Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 24.3% · Market 23.2%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 75.7% · Market 80.2%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nca25f9Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 68.2% · Market 73.4%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 31.8% · Market 30.4%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nca25f9Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 9.5 +166Model 38.4% · Market 37.6%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -199Model 61.6% · Market 66.6%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nca25f9Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 84.9% · Market 85.9%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 15.1% · Market 16.9%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nca25f9Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 24.9% · Market 28.4%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 75.1% · Market 75.4%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nca25f9Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 19.2% · Market 18.0%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 80.8% · Market 84.9%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nca25f9Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 10.0% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 90.0% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nca25f9Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 6.5 +146Model 48.6% · Market 40.6%Edge +8.0% · Full Kelly 13.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +180Model 32.7% · Market 36.2%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.5%+146 → +180Logit -0.189 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66ne8ea3cStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassPittsburgh Pirates +114Model 47.1% · Market 46.7%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassPittsburgh Pirates +114Model 45.4% · Market 46.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+114 → +114Logit 0.000 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66ne8ea3cStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 49.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -103Model 50.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -103 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66ne8ea3cStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassUnder 8.5 -155Model 49.2% · Market 61.7%Edge -12.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +140Model 50.8% · Market 42.2%Edge +8.6% · Full Kelly 15.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-155 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66ne8ea3cStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassOver 11.5 +425Model 26.3% · Market 19.0%Edge +7.3% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -525Model 73.7% · Market 84.0%Edge -10.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66ne8ea3cStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassOver 9.5 +208Model 40.9% · Market 32.5%Edge +8.4% · Full Kelly 12.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -251Model 59.1% · Market 71.5%Edge -12.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66ne8ea3cStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassOver 5.5 -239Model 76.8% · Market 70.5%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 21.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +198Model 23.2% · Market 33.6%Edge -10.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66ne8ea3cStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassOver 4.5 -458Model 86.1% · Market 82.1%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 22.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +373Model 13.9% · Market 21.1%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66ne8ea3cStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassOver 6.5 -161Model 69.4% · Market 62.2%Edge +7.2% · Full Kelly 20.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +146Model 30.6% · Market 41.2%Edge -10.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66ne8ea3cStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 90.9% · Market 88.7%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 18.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 9.1% · Market 14.8%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66ne8ea3cStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassUnder 10.5 -322Model 65.8% · Market 76.3%Edge -10.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +266Model 34.2% · Market 27.3%Edge +6.8% · Full Kelly 9.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n14daf8Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassToronto Blue Jays -126Model 53.0% · Market 55.8%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers +109Model 47.9% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-126 → +109 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n14daf8Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.2% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-103 → -103Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n14daf8Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-5 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 9.1% · Market 10.6%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 90.9% · Market 91.6%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n14daf8Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-5 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 34.2% · Market 32.5%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 65.8% · Market 71.5%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n14daf8Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-5 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 21.1% · Market 20.1%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 78.9% · Market 83.0%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n14daf8Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-5 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 41.4% · Market 45.2%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 58.6% · Market 58.2%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -137 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n14daf8Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-5 | PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 59.1% · Market 63.7%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +152Model 40.9% · Market 39.7%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n14daf8Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-5 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 26.3% · Market 24.2%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 73.7% · Market 79.2%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n14daf8Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-5 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 86.1% · Market 86.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 13.9% · Market 15.9%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n14daf8Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-5 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 69.5% · Market 69.5%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 30.5% · Market 34.6%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n14daf8Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-5 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 76.9% · Market 76.3%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 23.1% · Market 27.3%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nc5f29cStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMinnesota Twins +134Model 50.0% · Market 42.7%Edge +7.3% · Full Kelly 12.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMinnesota Twins +146Model 42.0% · Market 40.6%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.1%+134 → +146Logit -0.086 | 6 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nc5f29cStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.6% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 50.0% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%-107 → +105Logit -0.116 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nc5f29cStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 27.8% · Market 35.6%Edge -7.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 72.2% · Market 68.6%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 11.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nc5f29cStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 62.2% · Market 71.5%Edge -9.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 37.8% · Market 32.5%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 7.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nc5f29cStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 87.6% · Market 86.8%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 12.4% · Market 16.9%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nc5f29cStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.4% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 38.2% · Market 46.2%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.6%+101 → +119Logit -0.142 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nc5f29cStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 70.4% · Market 80.2%Edge -9.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 29.6% · Market 23.2%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 8.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nc5f29cStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 92.0% · Market 91.6%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 8.0% · Market 10.6%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nc5f29cStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassOver 9.5 +165Model 44.5% · Market 38.2%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 10.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 55.5% · Market 65.1%Edge -9.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+165 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nc5f29cStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 21.0% · Market 26.3%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 79.0% · Market 77.3%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 7.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nc5f29cStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 24.2% · Market 19.0%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 75.8% · Market 84.0%Edge -8.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n811cd0Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.0% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.6% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%-107 → +101Logit -0.078 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n811cd0Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSt. Louis Cardinals -148Model 58.1% · Market 59.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants +134Model 42.1% · Market 42.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 6 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n811cd0Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 13.6% · Market 15.9%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 86.4% · Market 86.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n811cd0Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-5 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 34.7% · Market 31.4%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 65.3% · Market 72.5%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n811cd0Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 22.7% · Market 26.3%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 77.3% · Market 77.3%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n811cd0Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 58.6% · Market 65.1%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +165Model 41.4% · Market 38.2%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n811cd0Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 26.8% · Market 23.2%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 73.2% · Market 80.2%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n811cd0Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 21.5% · Market 20.1%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 78.5% · Market 83.0%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n811cd0Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 30.0% · Market 34.6%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 70.0% · Market 69.5%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n811cd0Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-5 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 8.9% · Market 11.7%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 91.1% · Market 91.6%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n811cd0Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-5 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 59.0% · Market 57.3%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 41.0% · Market 46.2%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +119 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nf44f3bStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +124Model 35.7% · Market 44.6%Edge -9.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +114Model 48.6% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.1%+124 → +114Logit 0.084 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nf44f3bStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago White Sox +119Model 46.2% · Market 45.7%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago White Sox +129Model 44.0% · Market 43.7%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%+119 → +129Logit -0.081 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nf44f3bStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 50.3% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +129Model 52.7% · Market 44.2%Edge +8.6% · Full Kelly 16.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → +129 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nf44f3bStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassOver 8.5 +165Model 44.8% · Market 38.2%Edge +6.7% · Full Kelly 11.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -199Model 55.2% · Market 66.6%Edge -11.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+165 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nf44f3bStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassOver 9.5 +252Model 35.0% · Market 28.5%Edge +6.5% · Full Kelly 9.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -293Model 65.0% · Market 75.4%Edge -10.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -293 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nf44f3bStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassOver 10.5 +351Model 28.5% · Market 22.2%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 8.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -430Model 71.5% · Market 81.1%Edge -9.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nf44f3bStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +331Model 17.0% · Market 23.2%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -404Model 83.0% · Market 80.2%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 14.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nf44f3bStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassUnder 12.5 -869Model 83.4% · Market 89.7%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +685Model 16.6% · Market 12.7%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nf44f3bStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 21.3% · Market 18.0%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 78.7% · Market 84.9%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nf44f3bStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassUnder 3.5 +490Model 11.3% · Market 16.9%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 88.7% · Market 86.8%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 14.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nf44f3bStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassOver 5.5 -208Model 72.5% · Market 67.5%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 15.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +173Model 27.5% · Market 36.6%Edge -9.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
No settled paper bets are available yet. The trend begins after the first recommended stake is graded.
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 15
- Both cleared
- 0
- Rate
- 0.0%