+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
70 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
154 games unified from 480 stored model snapshots on 2026-08-30.
Games154
Settled125
First edge-1.3%
Pregame edge-0.9%
Average CLV-0.6%
Totals CLV-1.0%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9bcfe1Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +109Model 47.6% · Market 47.9%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +109Model 48.2% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+109 → +109Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9bcfe1Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago Cubs -137Model 56.5% · Market 57.8%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago Cubs -161Model 60.0% · Market 61.7%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.9%-137 → -161Logit 0.161 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9bcfe1Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-5 | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 51.4% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -148Model 50.3% · Market 60.2%Edge -9.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -148 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9bcfe1Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-5 | PassUnder 7.5 +166Model 42.1% · Market 37.6%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 7.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -199Model 57.9% · Market 66.6%Edge -8.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9bcfe1Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-5 | PassOver 10.5 +146Model 33.7% · Market 41.2%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -161Model 66.3% · Market 62.2%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 12.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9bcfe1Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-5 | PassOver 6.5 -340Model 69.0% · Market 77.3%Edge -8.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +280Model 31.0% · Market 26.3%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9bcfe1Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-5 | PassUnder 5.5 +398Model 23.5% · Market 20.1%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -489Model 76.5% · Market 83.0%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9bcfe1Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-5 | PassOver 12.5 +266Model 20.7% · Market 27.3%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -340Model 79.3% · Market 77.3%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 8.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9bcfe1Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +756Model 14.1% · Market 11.7%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -967Model 85.9% · Market 90.6%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9bcfe1Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -251Model 74.1% · Market 71.5%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 9.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +208Model 25.9% · Market 32.5%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9bcfe1Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-5 | PassUnder 13.5 -489Model 85.1% · Market 83.0%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 12.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +398Model 14.9% · Market 20.1%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n9bcfe1Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-5 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 90.7% · Market 93.5%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 9.3% · Market 8.5%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1428 → +1074 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66ne9c548Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels +159Model 41.6% · Market 38.6%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Angels +146Model 42.2% · Market 40.6%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.0%+159 → +146Logit 0.085 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66ne9c548Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.7% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-103 → -103Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66ne9c548Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -209Model 61.0% · Market 68.1%Edge -7.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +188Model 39.0% · Market 35.2%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-209 → +188 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66ne9c548Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-2 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 32.4% · Market 28.4%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 67.6% · Market 75.4%Edge -7.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66ne9c548Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +159Model 32.4% · Market 38.6%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -191Model 67.6% · Market 65.6%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+159 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66ne9c548Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.0% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +129Model 48.9% · Market 44.2%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 9.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.6%+101 → +129Logit -0.225 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66ne9c548Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 75.2% · Market 82.1%Edge -6.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 24.8% · Market 22.2%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66ne9c548Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-2 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 19.8% · Market 16.9%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 80.2% · Market 85.9%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66ne9c548Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 90.0% · Market 88.7%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 11.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 10.0% · Market 13.8%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66ne9c548Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassOver 4.5 -489Model 84.9% · Market 83.0%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 11.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 15.1% · Market 20.1%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66ne9c548Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-2 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 75.2% · Market 73.4%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 24.8% · Market 30.4%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1d6dcStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 +105Model 51.8% · Market 48.8%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 +101Model 51.8% · Market 49.8%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+105 → +101Logit 0.039 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1d6dcStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +134Model 43.9% · Market 42.7%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +124Model 48.0% · Market 44.6%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.9%+134 → +124Logit 0.077 | 9 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1d6dcStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-5 | PassUnder 10.5 -121Model 53.5% · Market 54.8%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -131Model 66.5% · Market 56.7%Edge +9.8% · Full Kelly 22.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.0%-121 → -131Logit 0.079 | 11 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1d6dcStarts | TotalOpening line 14.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-5 | PassUnder 14.5 -458Model 88.6% · Market 82.1%Edge +6.5% · Full Kelly 36.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 14.5 +373Model 11.4% · Market 21.1%Edge -9.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1d6dcStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-5 | PassUnder 13.5 -360Model 85.2% · Market 78.3%Edge +6.9% · Full Kelly 31.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +296Model 14.8% · Market 25.3%Edge -10.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1d6dcStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-5 | PassOver 5.5 -660Model 76.3% · Market 86.8%Edge -10.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +529Model 23.7% · Market 15.9%Edge +7.8% · Full Kelly 9.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1d6dcStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -183Model 74.3% · Market 65.6%Edge +8.7% · Full Kelly 27.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +166Model 25.7% · Market 37.7%Edge -11.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1d6dcStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-5 | PassUnder 8.5 +159Model 49.8% · Market 38.6%Edge +11.2% · Full Kelly 18.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -191Model 50.2% · Market 65.6%Edge -15.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+159 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1d6dcStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-5 | PassOver 12.5 +218Model 20.6% · Market 31.4%Edge -10.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -263Model 79.4% · Market 72.5%Edge +7.0% · Full Kelly 25.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1d6dcStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-5 | PassOver 4.5 -1428Model 85.7% · Market 93.5%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +1074Model 14.3% · Market 8.5%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1428 → +1074 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1d6dcStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-5 | PassOver 6.5 -430Model 68.9% · Market 81.1%Edge -12.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +351Model 31.1% · Market 22.2%Edge +8.9% · Full Kelly 11.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1d6dcStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-5 | PassOver 7.5 -263Model 57.9% · Market 72.5%Edge -14.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +218Model 42.1% · Market 31.4%Edge +10.7% · Full Kelly 15.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n9bf7ffStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +101Model 52.1% · Market 49.8%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +109Model 51.8% · Market 47.9%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 7.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%+101 → +109Logit -0.076 | 7 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n9bf7ffStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassHouston Astros +105Model 50.4% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassHouston Astros +105Model 47.2% · Market 48.8%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+105 → +105Logit 0.000 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n9bf7ffStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 6.5 -290Model 60.5% · Market 74.4%Edge -13.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +240Model 39.5% · Market 29.4%Edge +10.1% · Full Kelly 14.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n9bf7ffStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 86.9% · Market 93.5%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 13.1% · Market 8.5%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1428 → +1074 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n9bf7ffStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassOver 11.5 +240Model 18.1% · Market 29.4%Edge -11.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -290Model 81.9% · Market 74.4%Edge +7.5% · Full Kelly 29.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n9bf7ffStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +685Model 19.5% · Market 12.7%Edge +6.7% · Full Kelly 7.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -869Model 80.5% · Market 89.7%Edge -9.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n9bf7ffStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 7.5 -168Model 48.6% · Market 63.2%Edge -14.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +152Model 51.4% · Market 40.2%Edge +11.2% · Full Kelly 19.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n9bf7ffStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -191Model 75.2% · Market 65.6%Edge +9.5% · Full Kelly 27.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +159Model 24.8% · Market 38.6%Edge -13.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +159 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n9bf7ffStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 9.5 +114Model 46.9% · Market 46.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +124Model 31.0% · Market 45.2%Edge -14.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.6%+114 → +124Logit -0.064 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n9bf7ffStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-3 | PassOver 12.5 +313Model 13.9% · Market 24.2%Edge -10.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -381Model 86.1% · Market 79.2%Edge +6.9% · Full Kelly 33.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n9bf7ffStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-3 | PassOver 5.5 -430Model 69.1% · Market 81.1%Edge -12.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +351Model 30.9% · Market 22.2%Edge +8.7% · Full Kelly 11.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n189632Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSt. Louis Cardinals -107Model 52.4% · Market 51.7%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +109Model 51.2% · Market 47.9%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.8%-107 → +109Logit -0.154 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n189632Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 50.7% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 50.3% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+101 → +101Logit 0.000 | 7 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n189632Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 83.8% · Market 85.9%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 16.2% · Market 16.9%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n189632Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 11.5% · Market 12.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 88.5% · Market 89.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n189632Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-4 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 79.1% · Market 81.1%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 20.9% · Market 22.2%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n189632Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassOver 10.5 +250Model 28.0% · Market 29.0%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -279Model 72.0% · Market 74.0%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+250 → -279 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n189632Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 28.0% · Market 30.4%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 72.0% · Market 74.4%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n189632Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassOver 9.5 +188Model 34.5% · Market 35.2%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -209Model 65.5% · Market 68.1%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+188 → -209 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n189632Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassUnder 6.5 +159Model 36.2% · Market 38.6%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -191Model 63.8% · Market 65.6%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+159 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n189632Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 17.3% · Market 19.0%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 82.7% · Market 84.0%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n189632Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-4 | PassUnder 8.5 -137Model 55.7% · Market 58.2%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +124Model 44.3% · Market 45.2%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n1dd339Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 51.5% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 50.9% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.1%-112 → -103Logit -0.084 | 7 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n1dd339Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassTexas Rangers +152Model 42.8% · Market 39.7%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTexas Rangers +140Model 39.7% · Market 41.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.0%+152 → +140Logit 0.082 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n1dd339Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-4 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 84.2% · Market 86.8%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 15.8% · Market 15.9%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n1dd339Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-4 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 81.8% · Market 82.1%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 18.2% · Market 21.1%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n1dd339Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-4 | PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 77.0% · Market 78.3%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 23.0% · Market 25.3%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n1dd339Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-4 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 10.4% · Market 9.6%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 89.6% · Market 92.5%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+945 → -1236 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n1dd339Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-4 | PassUnder 6.5 +208Model 33.8% · Market 32.5%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -251Model 66.2% · Market 71.5%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n1dd339Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-4 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 69.5% · Market 70.5%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 30.5% · Market 33.6%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n1dd339Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-4 | PassOver 9.5 +146Model 37.1% · Market 40.7%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -161Model 62.9% · Market 62.7%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n1dd339Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-4 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 74.1% · Market 77.3%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 25.9% · Market 26.3%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n1dd339Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-4 | PassUnder 7.5 +129Model 45.2% · Market 44.2%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -142Model 54.8% · Market 59.2%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n1fc839Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 50.1% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +109Model 50.0% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.8%-107 → +109Logit -0.154 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n1fc839Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMinnesota Twins -116Model 52.5% · Market 53.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago White Sox -103Model 48.0% · Market 50.7%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → -103 | 9 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n1fc839Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-5 | PassUnder 7.5 +146Model 38.2% · Market 41.2%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -161Model 61.8% · Market 62.2%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n1fc839Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-5 | PassOver 11.5 +266Model 29.5% · Market 27.3%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -322Model 70.5% · Market 76.3%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n1fc839Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-5 | PassUnder 9.5 -142Model 55.5% · Market 59.7%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +129Model 44.5% · Market 43.7%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +129 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n1fc839Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-5 | PassUnder 12.5 -430Model 76.0% · Market 81.1%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +351Model 24.0% · Market 22.2%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n1fc839Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-5 | PassOver 10.5 +166Model 37.7% · Market 37.6%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -199Model 62.3% · Market 66.6%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n1fc839Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-5 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 92.1% · Market 92.5%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 7.9% · Market 9.6%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +945 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n1fc839Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-5 | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 79.2% · Market 79.2%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +313Model 20.8% · Market 24.2%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n1fc839Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-5 | PassOver 6.5 -263Model 72.4% · Market 72.5%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +218Model 27.6% · Market 31.4%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n1fc839Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 12.2% · Market 14.8%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 87.8% · Market 87.8%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n49d3b3Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 +101Model 49.3% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +119Model 49.4% · Market 45.7%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.1%+101 → +119Logit -0.164 | 7 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n49d3b3Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Diego Padres +140Model 43.4% · Market 41.7%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Diego Padres +134Model 42.2% · Market 42.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.1%+140 → +134Logit 0.044 | 8 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n49d3b3Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -609Model 81.8% · Market 85.9%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +490Model 18.2% · Market 16.9%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n49d3b3Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassUnder 10.5 -430Model 75.1% · Market 81.1%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +351Model 24.9% · Market 22.2%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n49d3b3Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 87.0% · Market 86.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 13.0% · Market 15.9%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n49d3b3Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassUnder 8.5 -175Model 59.3% · Market 64.6%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +159Model 40.7% · Market 38.7%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +159 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n49d3b3Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassOver 6.5 -142Model 60.6% · Market 59.7%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +129Model 39.4% · Market 43.7%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +129 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n49d3b3Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassUnder 5.5 +181Model 30.8% · Market 35.6%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -218Model 69.2% · Market 68.6%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n49d3b3Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +331Model 19.4% · Market 23.2%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -404Model 80.6% · Market 80.2%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n49d3b3Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassOver 9.5 +252Model 31.1% · Market 28.4%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -306Model 68.9% · Market 75.4%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n97c673Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -103Model 49.2% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -103Model 49.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-103 → -103Logit 0.000 | 7 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n97c673Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCleveland Guardians -168Model 61.5% · Market 62.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassKansas City Royals +159Model 37.4% · Market 38.6%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +159 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n97c673Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-11 | PassUnder 5.5 +208Model 28.5% · Market 32.5%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -251Model 71.5% · Market 71.5%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n97c673Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-11 | PassOver 4.5 -458Model 82.3% · Market 82.1%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +373Model 17.7% · Market 21.1%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n97c673Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-11 | PassUnder 10.5 -340Model 72.6% · Market 77.3%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +280Model 27.4% · Market 26.3%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n97c673Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-11 | PassUnder 8.5 -148Model 56.5% · Market 60.7%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +134Model 43.5% · Market 42.7%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n97c673Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-11 | PassOver 11.5 +425Model 20.3% · Market 19.0%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -525Model 79.7% · Market 84.0%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n97c673Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-11 | PassUnder 9.5 -240Model 66.3% · Market 71.0%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +216Model 33.7% · Market 32.1%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-240 → +216 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n97c673Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-11 | PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 11.8% · Market 14.8%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -719Model 88.2% · Market 87.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n97c673Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-11 | PassUnder 6.5 +140Model 36.9% · Market 41.7%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -168Model 63.1% · Market 62.7%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66na18ed0Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -112Model 50.3% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -103Model 49.7% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → -103 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66na18ed0Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers +124Model 52.1% · Market 44.6%Edge +7.5% · Full Kelly 13.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers +134Model 49.4% · Market 42.7%Edge +6.7% · Full Kelly 11.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%+124 → +134Logit -0.077 | 9 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66na18ed0Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-1 | PassOver 8.5 +140Model 43.8% · Market 42.2%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -155Model 56.2% · Market 61.7%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -155 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66na18ed0Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-1 | PassUnder 6.5 +146Model 36.7% · Market 41.2%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -161Model 63.3% · Market 62.2%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66na18ed0Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-1 | PassUnder 5.5 +198Model 28.4% · Market 33.6%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -239Model 71.6% · Market 70.5%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66na18ed0Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-1 | PassOver 4.5 -430Model 82.3% · Market 81.1%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +351Model 17.7% · Market 22.2%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66na18ed0Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-1 | PassOver 10.5 +296Model 27.6% · Market 25.3%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -360Model 72.4% · Market 78.3%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66na18ed0Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-1 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 11.8% · Market 15.9%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 88.2% · Market 86.8%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 10.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66na18ed0Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-1 | PassUnder 9.5 -263Model 66.0% · Market 72.5%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +218Model 34.0% · Market 31.4%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66na18ed0Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-1 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 79.5% · Market 84.9%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 20.5% · Market 18.0%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66nc672bfStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.3% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.7% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+105 → +101Logit 0.039 | 7 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66nc672bfStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassToronto Blue Jays +101Model 47.9% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassToronto Blue Jays +119Model 49.1% · Market 45.7%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.1%+101 → +119Logit -0.164 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66nc672bfStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-7 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 24.7% · Market 22.2%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 75.3% · Market 81.1%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66nc672bfStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-7 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 75.4% · Market 74.4%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 24.6% · Market 29.4%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66nc672bfStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-7 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 39.0% · Market 37.1%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 61.0% · Market 66.1%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66nc672bfStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-7 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 67.8% · Market 66.6%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 32.2% · Market 37.6%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66nc672bfStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-7 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 48.7% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +124Model 48.9% · Market 45.2%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 7.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.7%+109 → +124Logit -0.108 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66nc672bfStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-7 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 19.6% · Market 18.0%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 80.4% · Market 84.9%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66nc672bfStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-7 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 90.2% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 9.8% · Market 12.7%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66nc672bfStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-7 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 14.9% · Market 18.0%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 85.1% · Market 84.9%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66nc672bfStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-7 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 32.3% · Market 30.4%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 67.7% · Market 73.4%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n40249cStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 51.3% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → +105 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n40249cStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassColorado Rockies +189Model 38.7% · Market 34.6%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassColorado Rockies +198Model 36.6% · Market 33.6%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+189 → +198Logit -0.046 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n40249cStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 74.8% · Market 77.3%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 25.2% · Market 26.3%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n40249cStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 44.3% · Market 45.2%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 55.7% · Market 58.2%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -137 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n40249cStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 81.0% · Market 83.0%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 19.0% · Market 20.1%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n40249cStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 84.7% · Market 86.8%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 15.3% · Market 15.9%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n40249cStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 61.9% · Market 64.2%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 38.1% · Market 39.2%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n40249cStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 23.9% · Market 25.3%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 76.1% · Market 78.3%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n40249cStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 89.9% · Market 91.6%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 10.1% · Market 10.6%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n40249cStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 67.1% · Market 69.5%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 32.9% · Market 34.6%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n40249cStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 31.5% · Market 33.6%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 68.5% · Market 70.5%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n628910Starts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | PendingAwaiting finalPaper stake $200 · P/L pending | Paper betNew York Yankees +124Model 53.3% · Market 44.6%Edge +8.7% · Full Kelly 15.6%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betNew York Yankees +124Model 53.3% · Market 44.6%Edge +8.7% · Full Kelly 15.6%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%+124 → +124Logit 0.000 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n628910Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Pending1-16 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 48.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 48.6% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+109 → +109Logit 0.000 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n628910Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Pending1-16 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.9% · Market 48.8%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 50.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+105 → +109Logit -0.037 | 9 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n628910Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-16 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 36.9% · Market 36.6%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 63.1% · Market 67.5%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n628910Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-16 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 82.2% · Market 84.9%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 17.8% · Market 18.0%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n628910Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-16 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 33.7% · Market 37.1%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 66.3% · Market 66.1%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n628910Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-16 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 71.4% · Market 74.4%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 28.6% · Market 29.4%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n628910Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-16 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 15.7% · Market 16.9%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 84.3% · Market 85.9%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n628910Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-16 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 20.3% · Market 22.2%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 79.7% · Market 81.1%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n628910Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-16 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 27.3% · Market 29.4%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 72.7% · Market 74.4%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n628910Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-16 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 88.1% · Market 89.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 11.9% · Market 12.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb67656Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +105Model 48.9% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +101Model 48.7% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+105 → +101Logit 0.039 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb67656Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals -103Model 48.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins +105Model 51.8% · Market 48.8%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → +105 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb67656Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.1% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -142Model 54.2% · Market 59.7%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -142 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb67656Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +685Model 12.3% · Market 12.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -967Model 87.7% · Market 90.6%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb67656Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -175Model 62.5% · Market 63.6%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +146Model 37.5% · Market 40.7%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb67656Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 8.0% · Market 8.5%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1684Model 92.0% · Market 94.4%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1074 → -1684 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb67656Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 7.5 +173Model 38.4% · Market 37.1%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -191Model 61.6% · Market 66.1%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb67656Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassOver 11.5 +208Model 29.3% · Market 32.5%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -251Model 70.7% · Market 71.5%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb67656Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassUnder 12.5 -322Model 76.1% · Market 76.3%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +266Model 23.9% · Market 27.3%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb67656Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassUnder 13.5 -489Model 82.4% · Market 83.0%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +398Model 17.6% · Market 20.1%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb67656Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 5.5 +373Model 20.9% · Market 21.1%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -458Model 79.1% · Market 82.1%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nb67656Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassOver 6.5 -340Model 72.2% · Market 77.3%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +280Model 27.8% · Market 26.3%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
No settled paper bets are available yet. The trend begins after the first recommended stake is graded.
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 14
- Both cleared
- 0
- Rate
- 0.0%