+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
70 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
166 games unified from 365 stored model snapshots on 2026-08-29.
Games166
Settled135
First edge-0.8%
Pregame edge-1.4%
Average CLV+0.4%
Totals CLV+0.8%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66ncad5d1Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.2% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.0%+105 → -103Logit 0.078 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66ncad5d1Starts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Lost4-2Paper stake $200 · P/L pending | Paper betLos Angeles Angels +198Model 42.0% · Market 33.6%Edge +8.4% · Full Kelly 12.7%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betLos Angeles Angels +198Model 42.0% · Market 33.6%Edge +8.4% · Full Kelly 12.7%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%+198 → +198Logit 0.000 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66ncad5d1Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 67.2% · Market 68.6%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 32.8% · Market 35.6%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66ncad5d1Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 10.2% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 89.8% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66ncad5d1Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 75.8% · Market 81.1%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 24.2% · Market 22.2%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66ncad5d1Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 74.8% · Market 75.4%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 25.2% · Market 28.4%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66ncad5d1Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 84.6% · Market 85.9%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 15.4% · Market 16.9%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66ncad5d1Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 68.2% · Market 71.5%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 31.8% · Market 32.5%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66ncad5d1Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 61.6% · Market 64.6%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +159Model 38.4% · Market 38.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +159 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66ncad5d1Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Paper Kelly tracked | Won4-2Paper stake $200 · P/L pending | Paper betOver 7.5 -126Model 65.2% · Market 55.8%Edge +9.5% · Full Kelly 21.4%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 44.0% · Market 45.2%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-126 → +124 | 9 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66ncad5d1Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 19.3% · Market 16.9%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 80.7% · Market 85.9%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n1feb5eStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.8% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 50.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+105 → +109Logit -0.037 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n1feb5eStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassArizona Diamondbacks -121Model 56.4% · Market 54.8%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants +114Model 47.7% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-121 → +114 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n1feb5eStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-7 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 36.6% · Market 36.6%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -191Model 63.4% · Market 65.6%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n1feb5eStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-7 | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 43.8% · Market 46.7%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -126Model 56.2% · Market 55.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -126 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1f5eeStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Paper Kelly tracked | PendingAwaiting finalPaper stake $131 · P/L pending | Paper betUnder 9.5 +101Model 56.9% · Market 49.8%Edge +7.1% · Full Kelly 14.2%Policy Kelly 1.3% · $131 | PassUnder 9.5 -103Model 51.6% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+101 → -103Logit 0.040 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1f5eeStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +119Model 44.0% · Market 45.7%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +124Model 47.0% · Market 44.6%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+119 → +124Logit -0.041 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1f5eeStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-3 | PassUnder 8.5 +152Model 48.4% · Market 40.2%Edge +8.3% · Full Kelly 14.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -168Model 51.6% · Market 63.7%Edge -12.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1f5eeStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-3 | PassUnder 7.5 +208Model 40.8% · Market 32.5%Edge +8.4% · Full Kelly 12.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -251Model 59.2% · Market 71.5%Edge -12.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1f5eeStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-3 | PassOver 6.5 -404Model 70.0% · Market 80.2%Edge -10.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +331Model 30.0% · Market 23.2%Edge +6.8% · Full Kelly 8.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1f5eeStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-3 | PassUnder 3.5 +1775Model 8.9% · Market 5.3%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -2580Model 91.1% · Market 96.3%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1775 → -2580 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1f5eeStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-3 | PassOver 10.5 +124Model 34.9% · Market 45.7%Edge -10.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -137Model 65.1% · Market 57.8%Edge +7.3% · Full Kelly 17.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -137 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1f5eeStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-3 | PassOver 11.5 +166Model 27.0% · Market 37.6%Edge -10.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -199Model 73.0% · Market 66.6%Edge +6.5% · Full Kelly 19.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1f5eeStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +1074Model 13.6% · Market 8.5%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -1428Model 86.4% · Market 93.5%Edge -7.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1074 → -1428 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1f5eeStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-3 | PassUnder 13.5 -381Model 84.2% · Market 79.2%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 24.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +313Model 15.8% · Market 24.2%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1f5eeStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-3 | PassOver 12.5 +218Model 21.7% · Market 31.4%Edge -9.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -263Model 78.3% · Market 72.5%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 21.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd1f5eeStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-3 | PassUnder 5.5 +490Model 22.8% · Market 16.9%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 7.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -609Model 77.2% · Market 85.9%Edge -8.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n6e4b63Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Yankees -126Model 55.8% · Market 55.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBoston Red Sox +124Model 45.8% · Market 44.6%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-126 → +124 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n6e4b63Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.3% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +114Model 49.9% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → +114 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n6e4b63Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-9 | PassOver 9.5 +238Model 35.4% · Market 30.0%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 8.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -265Model 64.6% · Market 73.5%Edge -8.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+238 → -265 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n6e4b63Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-9 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 11.1% · Market 15.9%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 88.9% · Market 86.8%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 15.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n6e4b63Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-9 | PassOver 8.5 +152Model 45.3% · Market 39.7%Edge +5.6% · Full Kelly 9.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -168Model 54.7% · Market 64.2%Edge -9.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n6e4b63Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-9 | PassUnder 10.5 -381Model 71.1% · Market 79.2%Edge -8.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +313Model 28.9% · Market 24.2%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n6e4b63Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-9 | PassOver 6.5 -148Model 64.7% · Market 59.7%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 12.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +124Model 35.3% · Market 44.6%Edge -9.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n6e4b63Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-9 | PassUnder 5.5 +181Model 27.2% · Market 35.6%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -218Model 72.8% · Market 68.6%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 13.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n6e4b63Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-9 | PassOver 4.5 -404Model 83.2% · Market 80.2%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 15.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +331Model 16.8% · Market 23.2%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n6e4b63Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-9 | PassUnder 11.5 -609Model 78.3% · Market 85.9%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +490Model 21.7% · Market 16.9%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 5.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n7867cdStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassTexas Rangers +140Model 41.2% · Market 41.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTexas Rangers +146Model 40.6% · Market 40.6%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+140 → +146Logit -0.042 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n7867cdStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.1% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+109 → +105Logit 0.037 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n7867cdStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 38.0% · Market 37.6%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 62.0% · Market 65.6%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n7867cdStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 81.1% · Market 84.9%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 18.9% · Market 18.0%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n7867cdStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 31.4% · Market 31.4%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 68.6% · Market 72.5%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n7867cdStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 10.1% · Market 10.6%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 89.9% · Market 91.6%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n7867cdStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 15.3% · Market 16.9%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 84.7% · Market 85.9%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n7867cdStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 25.2% · Market 28.4%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 74.8% · Market 75.4%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n7867cdStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 44.3% · Market 46.2%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 55.8% · Market 57.3%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -131 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n7867cdStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 23.9% · Market 23.2%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 76.1% · Market 80.2%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n7867cdStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 67.1% · Market 68.6%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 32.9% · Market 35.6%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n998c90Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +114Model 50.7% · Market 46.7%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 7.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.8% · Market 48.8%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.1%+114 → +105Logit 0.082 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n998c90Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Mets -137Model 57.4% · Market 57.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassHouston Astros +129Model 42.8% · Market 43.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +129 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n998c90Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 13.5% · Market 18.0%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 86.5% · Market 84.9%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n998c90Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 8.5 -126Model 60.0% · Market 56.2%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 9.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 40.0% · Market 47.3%Edge -7.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-126 → +114 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n998c90Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 75.7% · Market 72.5%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 11.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 24.3% · Market 31.4%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n998c90Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 86.6% · Market 90.6%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 13.4% · Market 11.7%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n998c90Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-6 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 31.3% · Market 28.4%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 68.7% · Market 75.4%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n998c90Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 82.3% · Market 80.2%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 11.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 17.7% · Market 23.2%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n998c90Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 59.9% · Market 67.5%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 40.1% · Market 36.6%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n998c90Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -200Model 69.6% · Market 67.1%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 8.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +180Model 30.4% · Market 36.2%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n998c90Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-6 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 80.2% · Market 84.9%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 19.8% · Market 18.0%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n9c3a92Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.0% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.8% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+105 → +101Logit 0.039 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n9c3a92Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassTampa Bay Rays -137Model 58.9% · Market 57.8%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTampa Bay Rays -137Model 57.6% · Market 57.8%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-137 → -137Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n9c3a92Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 37.5% · Market 36.6%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -208Model 62.5% · Market 67.5%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n9c3a92Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 74.4% · Market 74.4%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 25.6% · Market 29.4%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n9c3a92Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-7 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 76.6% · Market 81.1%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 23.4% · Market 22.2%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n9c3a92Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 84.4% · Market 84.9%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 15.6% · Market 19.0%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n9c3a92Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-7 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 69.0% · Market 74.4%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 31.0% · Market 29.4%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n9c3a92Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-7 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 10.3% · Market 12.7%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 89.7% · Market 89.7%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n9c3a92Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-7 | PassUnder 8.5 -131Model 52.5% · Market 57.3%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +119Model 47.5% · Market 46.2%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +119 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n9c3a92Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 66.6% · Market 66.6%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +180Model 33.4% · Market 36.7%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nce732dStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 50.2% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+109 → +105Logit 0.037 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nce732dStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCleveland Guardians -154Model 59.1% · Market 60.6%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassKansas City Royals +140Model 40.9% · Market 41.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-154 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nce732dStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-3 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 21.2% · Market 22.2%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 78.8% · Market 81.1%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nce732dStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-3 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 11.3% · Market 12.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 88.6% · Market 89.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nce732dStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-3 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 82.9% · Market 84.9%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 17.1% · Market 18.0%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nce732dStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-3 | PassOver 9.5 +180Model 34.9% · Market 36.2%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -200Model 65.1% · Market 67.1%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+180 → -200 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nce732dStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-3 | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 48.7% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 44.7% · Market 46.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.0%+114 → +114Logit -0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nce732dStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-3 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 27.6% · Market 29.4%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 72.4% · Market 74.4%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nce732dStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-3 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 83.5% · Market 85.9%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 16.5% · Market 16.9%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nce732dStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-3 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 35.8% · Market 37.6%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 64.2% · Market 66.6%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nce732dStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-3 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 28.4% · Market 29.4%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 71.6% · Market 74.4%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nd0d3b0Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.3% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +101Model 50.3% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+105 → +101Logit 0.039 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nd0d3b0Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAtlanta Braves -228Model 67.6% · Market 69.5%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAtlanta Braves -239Model 68.2% · Market 70.5%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%-228 → -239Logit 0.047 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nd0d3b0Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -142Model 58.5% · Market 58.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -142Model 58.5% · Market 59.2%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.5%-142 → -142Logit 0.021 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nd0d3b0Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 13.5 +456Model 15.7% · Market 18.0%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -564Model 84.3% · Market 84.9%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nd0d3b0Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 12.5 +313Model 21.7% · Market 24.2%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -381Model 78.3% · Market 79.2%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nd0d3b0Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 11.5 +240Model 27.0% · Market 29.4%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -290Model 73.0% · Market 74.4%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nd0d3b0Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 91.1% · Market 93.5%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 8.9% · Market 8.5%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1428 → +1074 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nd0d3b0Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 4.5 -967Model 86.4% · Market 90.6%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +756Model 13.6% · Market 11.7%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nd0d3b0Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 7.5 -175Model 59.0% · Market 63.6%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +146Model 41.0% · Market 40.7%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nd0d3b0Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +266Model 30.0% · Market 27.3%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -322Model 70.0% · Market 76.3%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nd0d3b0Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 5.5 +351Model 22.7% · Market 22.2%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -430Model 77.3% · Market 81.1%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nd0d3b0Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -191Model 65.1% · Market 66.1%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 34.9% · Market 37.1%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n054116Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMiami Marlins -112Model 52.3% · Market 52.8%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins -112Model 51.8% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-112 → -112Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n054116Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 49.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.1% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+109 → +105Logit 0.037 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n054116Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassUnder 8.5 -131Model 47.9% · Market 56.7%Edge -8.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +119Model 52.1% · Market 46.2%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 11.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +119 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n054116Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 86.7% · Market 84.9%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 11.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 13.3% · Market 18.0%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n054116Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 70.5% · Market 67.5%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 9.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 29.5% · Market 36.6%Edge -7.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n054116Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 27.4% · Market 22.2%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 72.6% · Market 81.1%Edge -8.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n054116Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassUnder 9.5 -200Model 57.9% · Market 67.1%Edge -9.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +180Model 42.1% · Market 36.2%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 10.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n054116Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 35.4% · Market 30.4%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 7.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 64.6% · Market 73.4%Edge -8.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n054116Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-5 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 8.7% · Market 12.7%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 91.3% · Market 89.7%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 15.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n054116Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-5 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 77.7% · Market 74.4%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 12.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 22.3% · Market 29.4%Edge -7.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n9c89adStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassToronto Blue Jays -116Model 55.8% · Market 53.7%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassToronto Blue Jays -116Model 55.8% · Market 53.7%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-116 → -116Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n9c89adStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -103Model 50.4% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -107Model 50.4% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%-103 → -107Logit 0.038 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n9c89adStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 3.5 -719Model 90.1% · Market 87.8%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 19.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 9.9% · Market 14.8%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n9c89adStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 4.5 -489Model 85.0% · Market 83.0%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 11.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +373Model 15.0% · Market 21.1%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n9c89adStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 8.5 -148Model 51.4% · Market 60.2%Edge -8.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +134Model 48.6% · Market 43.2%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 10.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n9c89adStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 9.5 +198Model 38.7% · Market 33.6%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 7.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -239Model 61.3% · Market 70.5%Edge -9.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n9c89adStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 6.5 -168Model 67.6% · Market 63.2%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 13.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +152Model 32.4% · Market 40.2%Edge -7.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n9c89adStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 10.5 -322Model 67.9% · Market 76.3%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +266Model 32.1% · Market 27.3%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n9c89adStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 5.5 -263Model 75.3% · Market 72.5%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 10.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +208Model 24.7% · Market 32.5%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n9c89adStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 11.5 -489Model 75.6% · Market 83.0%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +398Model 24.4% · Market 20.1%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n7a9f52Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago Cubs -208Model 65.9% · Market 67.5%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +173Model 34.1% · Market 36.6%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n7a9f52Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +105Model 48.1% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -116Model 51.9% · Market 53.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -116 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n7a9f52Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-17 | PassUnder 6.5 +280Model 30.8% · Market 26.3%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -340Model 69.2% · Market 77.3%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n7a9f52Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-17 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 90.8% · Market 93.5%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 9.2% · Market 8.5%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1428 → +1074 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n7a9f52Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-17 | PassUnder 11.5 -251Model 73.8% · Market 71.5%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 8.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +208Model 26.2% · Market 32.5%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n7a9f52Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-17 | PassOver 8.5 -148Model 50.5% · Market 60.2%Edge -9.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +134Model 49.5% · Market 43.2%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 11.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n7a9f52Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-17 | PassOver 5.5 -489Model 76.7% · Market 83.0%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +398Model 23.3% · Market 20.1%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n7a9f52Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-17 | PassUnder 12.5 -322Model 79.0% · Market 76.3%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 11.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +266Model 21.0% · Market 27.3%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n7a9f52Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-17 | PassOver 7.5 -200Model 58.2% · Market 67.1%Edge -8.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +180Model 41.8% · Market 36.2%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 9.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n7a9f52Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-17 | PassUnder 4.5 +756Model 14.0% · Market 11.7%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -967Model 86.0% · Market 90.6%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n7a9f52Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-17 | PassOver 10.5 +134Model 34.0% · Market 42.7%Edge -8.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -161Model 66.0% · Market 61.7%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 11.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n8ef583Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 48.7% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 48.7% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.1%+114 → +105Logit 0.082 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n8ef583Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSt. Louis Cardinals -126Model 58.4% · Market 55.8%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals -126Model 58.4% · Market 55.8%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-126 → -126Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n8ef583Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 64.4% · Market 68.6%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 35.6% · Market 35.6%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n8ef583Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 16.6% · Market 18.0%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 83.4% · Market 84.9%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n8ef583Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 47.3% · Market 46.8%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 52.7% · Market 56.7%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -131 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n8ef583Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 11.3% · Market 11.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 88.7% · Market 91.6%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n8ef583Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 65.0% · Market 65.1%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +165Model 35.0% · Market 38.2%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n8ef583Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 83.0% · Market 85.9%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 17.0% · Market 16.9%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n8ef583Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 78.7% · Market 79.2%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 21.3% · Market 24.2%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n8ef583Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 27.5% · Market 28.4%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 72.5% · Market 75.4%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinalsevt_129ymh66n8ef583Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 28.6% · Market 31.4%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 71.4% · Market 72.5%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n5115ccStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMinnesota Twins -112Model 52.1% · Market 52.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMinnesota Twins -112Model 52.1% · Market 52.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-112 → -112Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n5115ccStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +114Model 48.6% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +114Model 48.6% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+114 → +114Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n5115ccStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassOver 6.5 -340Model 72.3% · Market 77.3%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +280Model 27.7% · Market 26.3%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n5115ccStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassOver 11.5 +208Model 29.5% · Market 32.5%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -251Model 70.5% · Market 71.5%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n5115ccStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +756Model 12.3% · Market 11.7%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -967Model 87.7% · Market 90.6%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n5115ccStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 13.5 -525Model 82.3% · Market 84.0%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +425Model 17.7% · Market 19.0%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n5115ccStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 7.5 +159Model 38.2% · Market 38.6%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -191Model 61.8% · Market 65.6%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+159 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n5115ccStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 5.5 +373Model 20.8% · Market 21.1%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -458Model 79.2% · Market 82.1%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n5115ccStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassOver 8.5 -131Model 54.4% · Market 57.3%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +119Model 45.6% · Market 46.2%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +119 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n5115ccStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassOver 3.5 -1684Model 92.1% · Market 94.4%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1241Model 7.9% · Market 7.5%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1684 → +1241 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n5115ccStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassOver 12.5 +280Model 24.0% · Market 26.3%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -340Model 76.0% · Market 77.3%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n5115ccStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -168Model 62.4% · Market 63.2%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +152Model 37.6% · Market 40.2%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n746f37Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers +152Model 46.9% · Market 39.7%Edge +7.2% · Full Kelly 12.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers +152Model 46.9% · Market 39.7%Edge +7.2% · Full Kelly 12.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+152 → +152Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n746f37Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 +114Model 49.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +114Model 49.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+114 → +114Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n746f37Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +331Model 17.3% · Market 23.2%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -404Model 82.7% · Market 80.2%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 12.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n746f37Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 11.5% · Market 15.9%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 88.5% · Market 86.8%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 12.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n746f37Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 10.5 -404Model 71.7% · Market 80.2%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +331Model 28.3% · Market 23.2%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n746f37Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 9.5 +252Model 34.7% · Market 28.4%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 8.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -306Model 65.3% · Market 75.4%Edge -10.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n746f37Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 11.5 +490Model 21.1% · Market 16.9%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -609Model 78.9% · Market 85.9%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n746f37Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-2 | PassUnder 8.5 -200Model 55.5% · Market 68.1%Edge -12.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +189Model 44.5% · Market 35.2%Edge +9.4% · Full Kelly 15.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n746f37Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 6.5 -148Model 64.0% · Market 60.7%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +134Model 36.0% · Market 42.7%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n746f37Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-2 | PassOver 5.5 -228Model 72.1% · Market 69.5%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 8.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +189Model 27.9% · Market 34.6%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66na1d8eaStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -101Model 50.0% · Market 50.2%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -101Model 50.0% · Market 50.2%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-101 → -101Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66na1d8eaStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Yankees -107Model 53.8% · Market 51.7%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Yankees -107Model 53.8% · Market 51.7%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-107 → -107Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66na1d8eaStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-0 | PassUnder 6.5 +158Model 34.4% · Market 39.2%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -175Model 65.6% · Market 64.2%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66na1d8eaStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-0 | PassOver 10.5 +266Model 29.8% · Market 27.5%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -322Model 70.2% · Market 76.4%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66na1d8eaStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-0 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 10.8% · Market 13.8%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 89.2% · Market 88.7%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66na1d8eaStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-0 | PassOver 9.5 +197Model 36.3% · Market 34.1%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -219Model 63.7% · Market 69.1%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+197 → -219 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66na1d8eaStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-0 | PassOver 11.5 +398Model 22.4% · Market 20.3%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -489Model 77.6% · Market 83.2%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66na1d8eaStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-0 | PassUnder 8.5 -148Model 53.8% · Market 60.2%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +129Model 46.2% · Market 43.7%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +129 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66na1d8eaStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-0 | PassOver 5.5 -252Model 73.5% · Market 72.0%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 6.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +226Model 26.5% · Market 31.1%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-252 → +226 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66na1d8eaStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-0 | PassOver 4.5 -489Model 83.8% · Market 83.0%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 16.3% · Market 20.1%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat. This chart begins on Aug 29, the first settled paper bet in the retained read model; it does not imply that earlier games were replayed.
- Current bankroll
- $9,600
- Cumulative
- -4.0%
- Best day
- -4.0%
- Worst day
- -4.0%
- Settled bets
- 2
Cumulative bankroll return
Daily bankroll return
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
-$200 · -2.0%
- Bets
- 1
- Record
- 0-1
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 2.0%
Full Kelly benchmark $8,729 · tracked -$200 on $200 settled paper stake · -100.0% ROI
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 16
- Both cleared
- 0
- Rate
- 0.0%