+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
70 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
136 games unified from 327 stored model snapshots on 2026-08-31.
Games136
Settled112
First edge-1.2%
Pregame edge-1.5%
Average CLV-1.2%
Totals CLV-0.5%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nb9213eStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassArizona Diamondbacks -116Model 51.5% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassArizona Diamondbacks +100Model 51.0% · Market 50.0%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.7%-116 → +100Logit -0.148 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nb9213eStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.5% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.0% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+101 → +101Logit 0.000 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nb9213eStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-1 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 63.1% · Market 64.2%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +159Model 36.9% · Market 38.6%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +159 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nb9213eStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-1 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 22.9% · Market 24.2%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 77.1% · Market 79.2%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nb9213eStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-1 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 54.6% · Market 58.2%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 45.4% · Market 45.2%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nb9213eStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-1 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 16.0% · Market 16.9%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 84.0% · Market 85.9%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nb9213eStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-1 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 66.0% · Market 69.5%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 34.0% · Market 34.6%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nb9213eStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-1 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 73.9% · Market 76.3%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 26.1% · Market 27.3%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nb9213eStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-1 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 89.4% · Market 91.6%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 10.6% · Market 10.6%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nb9213eStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-1 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 82.0% · Market 83.0%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 18.0% · Market 20.1%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nb9213eStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-1 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 30.3% · Market 33.6%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 69.7% · Market 70.5%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n41ae73Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 49.4% · Market 45.7%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.6% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.1%+119 → +105Logit 0.125 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n41ae73Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels +134Model 47.8% · Market 42.7%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 8.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Yankees -122Model 55.4% · Market 54.9%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -122 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n41ae73Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-10 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 31.5% · Market 36.6%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 68.5% · Market 67.5%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n41ae73Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-10 | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 50.4% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +119Model 49.8% · Market 46.2%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 7.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → +119 | 5 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n41ae73Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-10 | PassOver 9.5 +166Model 39.9% · Market 37.7%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 60.1% · Market 65.6%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n41ae73Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-10 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 24.0% · Market 29.4%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 76.0% · Market 74.4%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n41ae73Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-10 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 14.5% · Market 19.0%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 85.5% · Market 84.0%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 9.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n41ae73Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-10 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 20.4% · Market 18.0%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 79.6% · Market 84.9%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n41ae73Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-10 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 25.5% · Market 23.2%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 74.5% · Market 80.2%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n41ae73Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-10 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 33.2% · Market 30.4%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 66.8% · Market 73.4%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n41ae73Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-10 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 90.5% · Market 89.7%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 7.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 9.5% · Market 12.7%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n6750baStarts | TotalOpening line 11Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 11 -110Model 51.5% · Market 52.4%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11 -110Model 51.5% · Market 52.4%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-110 → -110Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n6750baStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassColorado Rockies +124Model 45.5% · Market 44.6%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBaltimore Orioles -118Model 53.9% · Market 54.1%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -118 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n6750baStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-1 | PassUnder 10.5 -112Model 50.5% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 -126Model 51.1% · Market 56.2%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → -126 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n6750baStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-1 | PassUnder 12.5 -175Model 63.7% · Market 63.6%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +146Model 36.3% · Market 40.7%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n6750baStarts | TotalOpening line 14.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-1 | PassOver 14.5 +252Model 23.7% · Market 28.4%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 14.5 -306Model 76.3% · Market 75.4%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n6750baStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-1 | PassUnder 6.5 +490Model 18.4% · Market 16.9%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -609Model 81.6% · Market 85.9%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n6750baStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-1 | PassOver 9.5 -168Model 57.6% · Market 63.2%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 +152Model 42.4% · Market 40.2%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n6750baStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-1 | PassUnder 8.5 +218Model 33.1% · Market 31.4%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -263Model 66.9% · Market 72.5%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n6750baStarts | TotalOpening line 15.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-1 | PassOver 15.5 +373Model 18.4% · Market 21.1%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 15.5 -458Model 81.6% · Market 82.1%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n6750baStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-1 | PassUnder 7.5 +296Model 26.9% · Market 25.3%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -360Model 73.1% · Market 78.3%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n6750baStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-1 | PassUnder 5.5 +685Model 13.4% · Market 12.7%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -869Model 86.6% · Market 89.7%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n6750baStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-1 | PassUnder 13.5 -251Model 71.4% · Market 71.5%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +198Model 28.6% · Market 33.6%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n6750baStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-1 | PassUnder 11.5 -126Model 57.6% · Market 56.2%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +114Model 42.4% · Market 47.3%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-126 → +114 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n6134a3Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago White Sox -103Model 48.2% · Market 50.7%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago White Sox +114Model 47.0% · Market 46.7%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%-103 → +114Logit -0.161 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n6134a3Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -112Model 49.7% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 50.1% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → -107 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n6134a3Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassUnder 5.5 +313Model 21.6% · Market 24.2%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 78.4% · Market 79.2%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n6134a3Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassOver 12.5 +351Model 22.9% · Market 22.2%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -430Model 77.1% · Market 81.1%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n6134a3Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassUnder 7.5 +140Model 39.4% · Market 42.2%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -155Model 60.6% · Market 61.2%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -155 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n6134a3Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassOver 9.5 +140Model 43.1% · Market 42.2%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -155Model 56.9% · Market 61.2%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -155 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n6134a3Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassOver 11.5 +280Model 28.3% · Market 26.3%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 71.7% · Market 77.3%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n6134a3Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +218Model 28.7% · Market 31.4%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -263Model 71.3% · Market 72.5%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n6134a3Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 91.7% · Market 92.5%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 8.3% · Market 10.6%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n6134a3Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 12.8% · Market 14.8%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 87.2% · Market 87.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n6134a3Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassOver 10.5 +181Model 36.4% · Market 35.6%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -218Model 63.6% · Market 68.6%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n3487a3Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +189Model 40.6% · Market 34.6%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 9.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +181Model 36.5% · Market 35.6%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+189 → +181Logit 0.043 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n3487a3Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 49.7% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -103Model 50.7% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -103 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n3487a3Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-8 | PassOver 11.5 +425Model 27.2% · Market 19.0%Edge +8.2% · Full Kelly 10.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -525Model 72.8% · Market 84.0%Edge -11.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n3487a3Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-8 | PassOver 8.5 +140Model 51.7% · Market 42.2%Edge +9.5% · Full Kelly 17.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -155Model 48.3% · Market 61.2%Edge -12.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -155 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n3487a3Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-8 | PassUnder 9.5 -251Model 58.2% · Market 71.5%Edge -13.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +208Model 41.8% · Market 32.5%Edge +9.3% · Full Kelly 13.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n3487a3Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-8 | PassOver 3.5 -719Model 91.2% · Market 87.8%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 28.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 8.8% · Market 14.8%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n3487a3Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-8 | PassUnder 4.5 +373Model 13.4% · Market 21.1%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -458Model 86.6% · Market 82.1%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 25.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n3487a3Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-8 | PassOver 10.5 +280Model 35.1% · Market 26.3%Edge +8.8% · Full Kelly 12.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -340Model 64.9% · Market 77.3%Edge -12.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n3487a3Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-8 | PassOver 5.5 -251Model 77.5% · Market 71.5%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 20.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +198Model 22.5% · Market 33.6%Edge -11.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n3487a3Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-8 | PassOver 6.5 -161Model 70.2% · Market 62.2%Edge +8.0% · Full Kelly 22.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +146Model 29.8% · Market 41.2%Edge -11.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n4f1133Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMilwaukee Brewers -112Model 50.8% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago Cubs -107Model 50.3% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → -107 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n4f1133Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 -107Model 48.3% · Market 51.7%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +101Model 48.3% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%-107 → +101Logit -0.078 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n4f1133Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-17 | PassUnder 8.5 +140Model 49.2% · Market 41.7%Edge +7.5% · Full Kelly 12.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +134Model 49.2% · Market 43.2%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 11.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.5%+140 → +134Logit 0.063 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n4f1133Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-17 | PassUnder 7.5 +181Model 41.5% · Market 35.6%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 9.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -218Model 58.5% · Market 68.6%Edge -10.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n4f1133Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-17 | PassUnder 4.5 +756Model 13.9% · Market 11.7%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -967Model 86.1% · Market 90.6%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n4f1133Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-17 | PassOver 10.5 +134Model 34.1% · Market 43.2%Edge -9.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -148Model 65.9% · Market 60.2%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 15.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n4f1133Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-17 | PassUnder 12.5 -306Model 78.9% · Market 75.4%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 14.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +252Model 21.1% · Market 28.4%Edge -7.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n4f1133Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-17 | PassOver 13.5 +351Model 15.2% · Market 22.2%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -430Model 84.8% · Market 81.1%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 19.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n4f1133Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-17 | PassOver 11.5 +189Model 26.3% · Market 34.6%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -228Model 73.7% · Market 69.5%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 13.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n4f1133Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-17 | PassOver 3.5 -1684Model 90.9% · Market 94.4%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1241Model 9.1% · Market 7.5%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1684 → +1241 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n4f1133Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-17 | PassOver 6.5 -360Model 69.4% · Market 78.3%Edge -8.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +296Model 30.6% · Market 25.3%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 7.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n4f1133Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-17 | PassUnder 5.5 +425Model 23.2% · Market 19.0%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -525Model 76.8% · Market 84.0%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n75203dStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers +109Model 49.6% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers +105Model 49.0% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+109 → +105Logit 0.037 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n75203dStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -116Model 50.7% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.3% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.9%-116 → +105Logit -0.197 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n75203dStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-11 | PassUnder 6.5 +229Model 30.0% · Market 30.4%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -276Model 70.0% · Market 73.4%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n75203dStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-11 | PassUnder 10.5 -199Model 65.2% · Market 66.6%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +166Model 34.8% · Market 37.6%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n75203dStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-11 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 73.2% · Market 75.4%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 26.8% · Market 28.4%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n75203dStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-11 | PassOver 4.5 -788Model 86.4% · Market 88.7%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 13.6% · Market 14.8%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n75203dStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-11 | PassOver 7.5 -168Model 59.1% · Market 63.2%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +152Model 40.9% · Market 40.2%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n75203dStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-11 | PassUnder 5.5 +331Model 22.7% · Market 23.2%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -404Model 77.3% · Market 80.2%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n75203dStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-11 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 91.1% · Market 92.5%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 8.9% · Market 9.6%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +945 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n75203dStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-11 | PassOver 9.5 +129Model 41.5% · Market 44.2%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -142Model 58.5% · Market 59.2%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n75203dStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-11 | PassOver 12.5 +331Model 21.6% · Market 23.2%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -404Model 78.4% · Market 80.2%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n06e8d3Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals -107Model 49.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins -112Model 53.4% · Market 52.8%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -112 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n06e8d3Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.1% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +101Model 50.1% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+105 → +101Logit 0.039 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n06e8d3Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -148Model 56.4% · Market 60.7%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +140Model 43.6% · Market 42.2%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n06e8d3Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassUnder 12.5 -430Model 76.7% · Market 81.1%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +351Model 23.3% · Market 22.2%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n06e8d3Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 71.3% · Market 77.3%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +280Model 28.7% · Market 26.3%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n06e8d3Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-6 | PassUnder 5.5 +313Model 21.4% · Market 24.2%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 78.6% · Market 79.2%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n06e8d3Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -208Model 63.2% · Market 67.5%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 36.8% · Market 36.6%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n06e8d3Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 87.3% · Market 87.8%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 12.7% · Market 14.8%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n06e8d3Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassUnder 13.5 -660Model 82.9% · Market 86.8%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +529Model 17.1% · Market 15.9%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n06e8d3Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassOver 6.5 -263Model 71.6% · Market 72.5%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +218Model 28.4% · Market 31.4%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n06e8d3Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 91.8% · Market 91.6%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 8.2% · Market 10.6%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n06e8d3Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-6 | PassOver 7.5 -155Model 61.0% · Market 61.2%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +140Model 39.0% · Market 42.2%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-155 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n5cee2cStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSeattle Mariners +124Model 43.1% · Market 44.6%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSeattle Mariners +134Model 45.7% · Market 42.7%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%+124 → +134Logit -0.077 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n5cee2cStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.7% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.1% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-103 → -103Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n5cee2cStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-9 | PassOver 9.5 +197Model 43.2% · Market 34.6%Edge +8.6% · Full Kelly 14.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -219Model 56.8% · Market 69.1%Edge -12.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+197 → -219 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n5cee2cStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-9 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -137Model 46.8% · Market 58.2%Edge -11.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+109 → -137 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n5cee2cStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-9 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 28.4% · Market 21.1%Edge +7.2% · Full Kelly 9.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 71.6% · Market 82.1%Edge -10.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n5cee2cStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-9 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 63.5% · Market 75.4%Edge -11.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 36.5% · Market 28.4%Edge +8.0% · Full Kelly 11.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n5cee2cStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-9 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 8.3% · Market 13.8%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 91.7% · Market 88.7%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 26.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n5cee2cStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-9 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 21.6% · Market 30.4%Edge -8.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 78.4% · Market 73.4%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 18.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n5cee2cStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-9 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 12.8% · Market 20.1%Edge -7.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 87.2% · Market 84.0%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 20.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n5cee2cStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-9 | PassUnder 6.5 +159Model 28.6% · Market 38.6%Edge -10.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -191Model 71.4% · Market 65.6%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 16.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+159 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n5cee2cStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-9 | PassUnder 12.5 -660Model 77.0% · Market 86.8%Edge -9.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +529Model 23.0% · Market 15.9%Edge +7.1% · Full Kelly 8.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n757079Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Mets +124Model 42.0% · Market 44.6%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Mets +159Model 36.6% · Market 38.6%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -6.0%+124 → +159Logit -0.249 | 5 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n757079Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.8% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%-103 → +101Logit -0.040 | 3 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n757079Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 90.0% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 10.0% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n757079Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -200Model 61.9% · Market 67.1%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +180Model 38.1% · Market 36.2%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n757079Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 25.1% · Market 29.4%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 74.9% · Market 74.4%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n757079Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 76.0% · Market 82.1%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 24.0% · Market 21.1%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n757079Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 15.2% · Market 19.0%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 84.8% · Market 84.0%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n757079Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 31.6% · Market 29.4%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 68.4% · Market 74.4%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n757079Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 19.0% · Market 16.9%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 81.0% · Market 85.9%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n757079Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 67.2% · Market 66.6%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 32.8% · Market 37.6%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n757079Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-2 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 48.4% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -131Model 51.9% · Market 57.3%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+109 → -131 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n963b5aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds +105Model 49.1% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +124Model 46.0% · Market 44.6%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.1%+105 → +124Logit -0.166 | 5 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n963b5aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +109Model 50.0% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +109Model 49.8% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+109 → +109Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n963b5aStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 7.6% · Market 8.5%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 92.4% · Market 93.5%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1074 → -1428 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n963b5aStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-0 | PassOver 13.5 +456Model 18.8% · Market 18.0%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -564Model 81.2% · Market 84.9%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n963b5aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-0 | PassOver 6.5 -290Model 73.4% · Market 74.4%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +240Model 26.6% · Market 29.4%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n963b5aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-0 | PassOver 7.5 -175Model 63.1% · Market 63.6%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +146Model 36.9% · Market 40.7%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n963b5aStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-0 | PassOver 12.5 +296Model 25.3% · Market 25.3%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -360Model 74.7% · Market 78.3%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n963b5aStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-0 | PassOver 10.5 +158Model 39.1% · Market 39.2%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -175Model 60.9% · Market 64.2%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n963b5aStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-0 | PassUnder 5.5 +351Model 20.0% · Market 22.2%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -430Model 80.0% · Market 81.1%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n963b5aStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-0 | PassUnder 11.5 -276Model 69.2% · Market 73.4%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +229Model 30.8% · Market 30.4%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n963b5aStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-0 | PassUnder 4.5 +625Model 11.7% · Market 13.8%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -788Model 88.3% · Market 88.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n963b5aStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-0 | PassOver 9.5 +109Model 48.9% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +124Model 45.9% · Market 45.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.2%+109 → +124Logit -0.087 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Bravesevt_129uptitsa537f1Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 50.8% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.4% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%-112 → +105Logit -0.162 | 3 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Bravesevt_129uptitsa537f1Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAtlanta Braves -168Model 59.6% · Market 62.7%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants +173Model 35.7% · Market 36.6%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +173 | 5 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Bravesevt_129uptitsa537f1Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-3 | PassUnder 6.5 +250Model 30.3% · Market 29.0%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +240Model 30.3% · Market 29.5%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.5%+250 → +240Logit 0.025 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Bravesevt_129uptitsa537f1Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-3 | PassUnder 11.5 -265Model 73.5% · Market 73.0%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -276Model 73.5% · Market 74.0%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%-265 → -276Logit 0.050 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Bravesevt_129uptitsa537f1Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-3 | PassOver 5.5 -404Model 77.0% · Market 80.8%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +351Model 23.0% · Market 22.3%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Bravesevt_129uptitsa537f1Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-3 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 9.0% · Market 8.5%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 91.0% · Market 93.5%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1074 → -1428 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Bravesevt_129uptitsa537f1Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +685Model 13.7% · Market 12.7%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -869Model 86.3% · Market 89.7%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Bravesevt_129uptitsa537f1Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-3 | PassOver 9.5 +124Model 41.1% · Market 45.2%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -137Model 58.9% · Market 58.2%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -137 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Bravesevt_129uptitsa537f1Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-3 | PassUnder 12.5 -381Model 78.7% · Market 79.2%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +313Model 21.3% · Market 24.2%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Bravesevt_129uptitsa537f1Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-3 | PassOver 7.5 -168Model 58.7% · Market 63.7%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +152Model 41.3% · Market 39.7%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Bravesevt_129uptitsa537f1Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-3 | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 34.4% · Market 37.1%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -191Model 65.6% · Market 66.1%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
No settled paper bets are available yet. The trend begins after the first recommended stake is graded.
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 12
- Both cleared
- 0
- Rate
- 0.0%