+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
70 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
107 games unified from 259 stored model snapshots on 2026-08-24.
Games107
Settled0
First edge-1.6%
Pregame edge-0.6%
Average CLV-2.0%
Totals CLV-2.7%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66ne0ee68Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.8% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +101Model 49.8% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → +101 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66ne0ee68Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Francisco Giants +109Model 49.6% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants +146Model 46.0% · Market 40.6%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -7.2%+109 → +146Logit -0.292 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66ne0ee68Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -155Model 55.9% · Market 61.7%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +140Model 44.1% · Market 41.7%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-155 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66ne0ee68Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 11.5 +425Model 20.8% · Market 19.0%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -525Model 79.2% · Market 84.0%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66ne0ee68Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 5.5 +198Model 28.1% · Market 33.6%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -239Model 71.9% · Market 70.5%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66ne0ee68Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 10.5 +296Model 27.9% · Market 25.3%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -360Model 72.1% · Market 78.3%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66ne0ee68Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 4.5 +373Model 17.4% · Market 21.1%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -458Model 82.6% · Market 82.1%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66ne0ee68Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +134Model 36.3% · Market 42.7%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -161Model 63.7% · Market 61.7%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66ne0ee68Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 12.5 -788Model 83.8% · Market 88.7%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +625Model 16.2% · Market 13.8%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66ne0ee68Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 88.4% · Market 86.8%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 11.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 11.6% · Market 15.9%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66ne0ee68Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +218Model 34.3% · Market 31.5%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -240Model 65.7% · Market 71.5%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n692234Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSeattle Mariners +105Model 50.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSeattle Mariners +101Model 50.6% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+105 → +101Logit 0.039 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n692234Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 6.5 -116Model 50.5% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +105Model 48.6% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → +105 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n692234Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -228Model 56.8% · Market 69.5%Edge -12.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +189Model 43.2% · Market 34.6%Edge +8.6% · Full Kelly 13.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n692234Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 +146Model 51.1% · Market 41.2%Edge +10.0% · Full Kelly 17.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -161Model 48.9% · Market 62.2%Edge -13.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n692234Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +313Model 33.5% · Market 24.2%Edge +9.3% · Full Kelly 12.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -381Model 66.5% · Market 79.2%Edge -12.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n692234Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 4.5 -322Model 82.0% · Market 76.3%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 24.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +266Model 18.0% · Market 27.3%Edge -9.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n692234Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 5.5 +152Model 28.8% · Market 40.2%Edge -11.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -168Model 71.2% · Market 63.2%Edge +8.0% · Full Kelly 22.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n692234Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 3.5 -525Model 88.0% · Market 84.0%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 24.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +425Model 12.0% · Market 19.0%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n692234Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 10.5 +398Model 27.1% · Market 20.1%Edge +7.0% · Full Kelly 8.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -489Model 72.9% · Market 83.0%Edge -10.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n6c4076Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +119Model 47.1% · Market 45.7%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +124Model 45.7% · Market 44.6%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+119 → +124Logit -0.041 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n6c4076Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 11.5 +114Model 46.0% · Market 46.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -121Model 54.0% · Market 54.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -121 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n6c4076Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -116Model 53.0% · Market 53.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 +119Model 64.4% · Market 45.7%Edge +18.7% · Full Kelly 34.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -8.0%-116 → +119Logit -0.322 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n6c4076Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 4.5 +1464Model 13.3% · Market 6.4%Edge +6.9% · Full Kelly 7.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -2042Model 86.7% · Market 95.3%Edge -8.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1464 → -2042 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n6c4076Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 12.5 +146Model 22.4% · Market 40.7%Edge -18.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -175Model 77.6% · Market 63.6%Edge +14.0% · Full Kelly 38.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n6c4076Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 6.5 -609Model 70.6% · Market 85.9%Edge -15.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +490Model 29.4% · Market 16.9%Edge +12.4% · Full Kelly 15.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n6c4076Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 13.5 +198Model 16.3% · Market 33.6%Edge -17.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -239Model 83.7% · Market 70.5%Edge +13.2% · Full Kelly 44.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n6c4076Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 5.5 -967Model 77.7% · Market 90.6%Edge -12.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +756Model 22.3% · Market 11.7%Edge +10.6% · Full Kelly 12.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n6c4076Starts | TotalOpening line 14.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 14.5 +252Model 12.7% · Market 28.4%Edge -15.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 14.5 -306Model 87.3% · Market 75.4%Edge +11.9% · Full Kelly 48.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n6c4076Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +313Model 40.1% · Market 24.2%Edge +15.9% · Full Kelly 21.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -381Model 59.9% · Market 79.2%Edge -19.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n6c4076Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 -175Model 42.4% · Market 63.6%Edge -21.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 +158Model 57.6% · Market 39.7%Edge +17.9% · Full Kelly 30.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n6c4076Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -263Model 52.3% · Market 72.5%Edge -20.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +218Model 47.7% · Market 31.4%Edge +16.2% · Full Kelly 23.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n825cc2Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Diego Padres -126Model 56.0% · Market 55.8%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Diego Padres -121Model 56.7% · Market 54.8%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%-126 → -121Logit -0.040 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n825cc2Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -103Model 48.8% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +101Model 49.6% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%-103 → +101Logit -0.040 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n825cc2Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 80.0% · Market 84.9%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 20.0% · Market 18.0%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n825cc2Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 4.5 +351Model 18.0% · Market 22.2%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -430Model 82.0% · Market 81.1%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n825cc2Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +146Model 37.2% · Market 41.2%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -161Model 62.8% · Market 62.2%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n825cc2Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 88.0% · Market 86.8%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 8.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 12.0% · Market 15.9%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n825cc2Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 5.5 -239Model 71.2% · Market 70.5%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +198Model 28.8% · Market 33.6%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n825cc2Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -161Model 56.9% · Market 62.2%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +146Model 43.1% · Market 41.2%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n825cc2Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +218Model 33.4% · Market 31.4%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -263Model 66.6% · Market 72.5%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n825cc2Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 10.5 +296Model 27.0% · Market 25.3%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -360Model 73.0% · Market 78.3%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nd2440bStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +109Model 50.6% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +114Model 50.0% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%+109 → +114Logit -0.045 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nd2440bStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassArizona Diamondbacks +105Model 51.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassArizona Diamondbacks +119Model 45.3% · Market 45.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.1%+105 → +119Logit -0.125 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nd2440bStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -183Model 60.9% · Market 64.7%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +152Model 39.1% · Market 39.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nd2440bStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 13.5 -525Model 82.9% · Market 84.0%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +425Model 17.1% · Market 19.0%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nd2440bStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 5.5 +373Model 21.6% · Market 21.1%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -458Model 78.4% · Market 82.1%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nd2440bStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -183Model 63.3% · Market 65.1%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +165Model 36.7% · Market 38.2%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nd2440bStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 6.5 -290Model 71.5% · Market 74.4%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +240Model 28.5% · Market 29.4%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nd2440bStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 4.5 -967Model 87.2% · Market 90.6%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +756Model 12.8% · Market 11.7%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nd2440bStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 12.5 -381Model 76.8% · Market 79.2%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +313Model 23.2% · Market 24.2%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nd2440bStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +114Model 47.9% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -132Model 56.6% · Market 57.4%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -132 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nd2440bStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 3.5 -1684Model 91.7% · Market 94.4%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1241Model 8.3% · Market 7.5%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1684 → +1241 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66nd2440bStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 11.5 -276Model 71.4% · Market 73.4%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +229Model 28.6% · Market 30.4%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nda55caStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels +129Model 44.5% · Market 43.7%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Angels +140Model 43.2% · Market 41.7%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%+129 → +140Logit -0.082 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nda55caStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 50.2% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +109Model 50.4% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → +109 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nda55caStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +213Model 38.2% · Market 32.8%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 9.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -239Model 61.3% · Market 70.6%Edge -9.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+213 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nda55caStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 15.3% · Market 20.1%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -489Model 84.7% · Market 83.0%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 9.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nda55caStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 89.9% · Market 88.7%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 10.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 10.1% · Market 13.8%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nda55caStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 5.5 -251Model 74.8% · Market 71.5%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 11.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +208Model 25.2% · Market 32.5%Edge -7.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nda55caStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 48.7% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -155Model 51.9% · Market 61.2%Edge -9.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -155 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nda55caStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 6.5 -175Model 67.2% · Market 63.6%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 9.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +146Model 32.8% · Market 40.7%Edge -7.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nda55caStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 11.5 -489Model 76.0% · Market 83.0%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +398Model 24.0% · Market 20.1%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nda55caStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 10.5 +280Model 31.6% · Market 26.3%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 7.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -340Model 68.4% · Market 77.3%Edge -8.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nda55caStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 12.5 +574Model 19.0% · Market 14.8%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -719Model 81.0% · Market 87.8%Edge -6.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nb2cd56Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassTexas Rangers +109Model 49.0% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTexas Rangers +114Model 45.5% · Market 46.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%+109 → +114Logit -0.045 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nb2cd56Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 48.9% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.0% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+101 → +101Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nb2cd56Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 89.6% · Market 91.6%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 10.4% · Market 10.6%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nb2cd56Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 69.3% · Market 72.5%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 30.7% · Market 31.4%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nb2cd56Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 55.0% · Market 58.2%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 45.0% · Market 45.2%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nb2cd56Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 76.8% · Market 80.2%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 23.2% · Market 23.2%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nb2cd56Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 62.8% · Market 64.2%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +159Model 37.2% · Market 39.1%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +159 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nb2cd56Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 18.3% · Market 19.0%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 81.7% · Market 84.0%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nb2cd56Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 84.3% · Market 86.8%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 15.7% · Market 15.9%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nb2cd56Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 74.2% · Market 76.3%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 25.8% · Market 27.3%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66nb2cd56Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 33.6% · Market 35.6%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 66.4% · Market 68.6%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n2534beStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.7% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.8% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%-107 → +105Logit -0.116 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n2534beStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassColorado Rockies +152Model 41.1% · Market 39.7%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals -208Model 67.8% · Market 67.5%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -208 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n2534beStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 29.3% · Market 35.6%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 70.7% · Market 68.6%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n2534beStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 27.8% · Market 24.2%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 72.2% · Market 79.2%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n2534beStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 86.9% · Market 85.9%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 13.1% · Market 16.9%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n2534beStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -240Model 64.3% · Market 71.0%Edge -6.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +216Model 35.7% · Market 32.1%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-240 → +216 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n2534beStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 22.4% · Market 19.0%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 77.6% · Market 84.0%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n2534beStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +159Model 42.4% · Market 38.7%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 57.6% · Market 64.6%Edge -7.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+159 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n2534beStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 8.6% · Market 10.6%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 91.4% · Market 91.6%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n2534beStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 59.9% · Market 56.7%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 7.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -131 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n2534beStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 77.9% · Market 76.3%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 22.1% · Market 27.3%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n602291Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -103Model 49.4% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +109Model 49.9% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%-103 → +109Logit -0.116 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n602291Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMiami Marlins +114Model 49.3% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins +105Model 47.6% · Market 48.8%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.1%+114 → +105Logit 0.082 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n602291Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 5.5 +181Model 27.3% · Market 35.6%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -218Model 72.7% · Market 68.6%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 13.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n602291Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +134Model 35.4% · Market 43.2%Edge -7.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -148Model 64.6% · Market 60.2%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 12.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n602291Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 4.5 -404Model 83.1% · Market 80.2%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 14.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +331Model 16.9% · Market 23.2%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n602291Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 11.5 +490Model 21.6% · Market 16.9%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -609Model 78.4% · Market 85.9%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n602291Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -168Model 54.8% · Market 63.2%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +156Model 45.2% · Market 39.9%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 10.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +156 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n602291Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 10.5 +331Model 28.9% · Market 23.2%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 7.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -404Model 71.1% · Market 80.2%Edge -9.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n602291Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -290Model 64.6% · Market 74.4%Edge -9.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +240Model 35.4% · Market 29.4%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 8.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n602291Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 11.2% · Market 15.9%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 88.8% · Market 86.8%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 14.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb6b101Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers +109Model 52.9% · Market 47.9%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 9.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers +114Model 55.5% · Market 46.7%Edge +8.8% · Full Kelly 16.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%+109 → +114Logit -0.045 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb6b101Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 50.3% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.7% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%-107 → +105Logit -0.116 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb6b101Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +129Model 47.7% · Market 44.2%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 7.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -137Model 52.3% · Market 58.7%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -137 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb6b101Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 10.2% · Market 12.7%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 89.8% · Market 89.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb6b101Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 6.5 -183Model 66.8% · Market 65.1%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +165Model 33.2% · Market 38.2%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb6b101Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 23.6% · Market 21.1%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 76.4% · Market 82.1%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb6b101Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +189Model 37.8% · Market 34.6%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -228Model 62.2% · Market 69.5%Edge -7.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb6b101Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 5.5 +218Model 25.4% · Market 31.4%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -263Model 74.6% · Market 72.5%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 7.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb6b101Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 68.8% · Market 75.4%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 31.2% · Market 28.4%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb6b101Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 84.5% · Market 84.0%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 15.5% · Market 19.0%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
No settled paper bets are available yet. The trend begins after the first recommended stake is graded.
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 10
- Both cleared
- 0
- Rate
- 0.0%