-$194 · -1.9%
- Bets
- 1
- Record
- 0-1
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 1.9%
Full Kelly benchmark $9,223 · tracked -$194 on $194 settled paper stake · -100.0% ROI
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
70 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
112 games unified from 274 stored model snapshots on 2026-08-23.
Games112
Settled1
First edge-1.1%
Pregame edge-1.0%
Average CLV-0.2%
Totals CLV-1.0%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66na658c2Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -103Model 50.0% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.4% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → +105 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66na658c2Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAtlanta Braves +109Model 45.9% · Market 47.9%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMilwaukee Brewers -116Model 55.2% · Market 53.7%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+109 → -116 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66na658c2Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +197Model 40.3% · Market 34.6%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 10.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -218Model 59.7% · Market 68.6%Edge -8.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+197 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66na658c2Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +119Model 50.3% · Market 46.2%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -131Model 49.7% · Market 57.3%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -131 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66na658c2Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 25.8% · Market 21.1%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 74.2% · Market 82.1%Edge -7.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66na658c2Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 90.7% · Market 89.7%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 10.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 9.3% · Market 12.7%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66na658c2Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +159Model 31.0% · Market 38.6%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 69.0% · Market 66.6%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 7.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+159 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66na658c2Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 33.6% · Market 28.4%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 7.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 66.4% · Market 75.4%Edge -9.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66na658c2Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 23.5% · Market 30.4%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 76.5% · Market 73.4%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 11.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66na658c2Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 4.5 -489Model 85.9% · Market 83.0%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 16.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 14.1% · Market 20.1%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n1d5169Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassArizona Diamondbacks -131Model 55.1% · Market 56.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassArizona Diamondbacks -148Model 61.5% · Market 59.7%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.0%-131 → -148Logit 0.122 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n1d5169Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 50.8% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.5% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%-107 → +105Logit -0.116 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n1d5169Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +119Model 48.2% · Market 45.7%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +134Model 40.6% · Market 43.2%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.5%+119 → +134Logit -0.100 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n1d5169Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 4.5 -788Model 86.0% · Market 88.7%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +625Model 14.0% · Market 13.8%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n1d5169Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -200Model 66.1% · Market 67.1%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +180Model 33.9% · Market 36.2%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n1d5169Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 12.5 -430Model 79.1% · Market 81.1%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +351Model 20.9% · Market 22.2%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n1d5169Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -175Model 58.2% · Market 63.6%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +146Model 41.8% · Market 40.7%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n1d5169Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 9.2% · Market 9.6%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 90.8% · Market 92.5%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+945 → -1236 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n1d5169Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +229Model 30.7% · Market 30.4%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -276Model 69.3% · Market 73.4%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n1d5169Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 11.5 -322Model 73.9% · Market 76.3%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +266Model 26.1% · Market 27.3%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n1d5169Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 5.5 +331Model 23.3% · Market 23.2%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -404Model 76.7% · Market 80.2%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n3d5d48Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSeattle Mariners -107Model 51.0% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago Cubs -126Model 54.2% · Market 55.8%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -126 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n3d5d48Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -112Model 50.7% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -103Model 50.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → -103 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n3d5d48Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -340Model 66.3% · Market 77.3%Edge -11.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +280Model 33.7% · Market 26.3%Edge +7.4% · Full Kelly 10.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n3d5d48Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 4.5 +373Model 14.2% · Market 21.1%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -458Model 85.8% · Market 82.1%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 21.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n3d5d48Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +152Model 30.9% · Market 40.2%Edge -9.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -168Model 69.1% · Market 63.2%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 17.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n3d5d48Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +208Model 40.4% · Market 32.5%Edge +8.0% · Full Kelly 11.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -251Model 59.6% · Market 71.5%Edge -11.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n3d5d48Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -155Model 49.6% · Market 61.2%Edge -11.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +140Model 50.4% · Market 42.2%Edge +8.2% · Full Kelly 15.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-155 → +140 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n3d5d48Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 11.5 +425Model 25.9% · Market 19.0%Edge +6.9% · Full Kelly 8.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -525Model 74.1% · Market 84.0%Edge -9.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n3d5d48Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 5.5 +208Model 23.5% · Market 32.5%Edge -8.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -251Model 76.5% · Market 71.5%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 17.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n3d5d48Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 3.5 +574Model 9.3% · Market 14.8%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -719Model 90.7% · Market 87.8%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 24.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n55705aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 47.8% · Market 49.8%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 51.6% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → -107 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n55705aStarts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Lost0-4Paper stake $194 · P/L -$194 | Paper betPittsburgh Pirates +240Model 34.9% · Market 29.4%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 7.8%Policy Kelly 1.9% · $194 | Paper betPittsburgh Pirates +240Model 34.9% · Market 29.4%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 7.8%Policy Kelly 1.9% · $194 | +0.0%+240 → +240Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n55705aStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 81.9% · Market 86.8%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 18.1% · Market 15.9%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n55705aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +198Model 37.4% · Market 33.6%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 5.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -239Model 62.6% · Market 70.5%Edge -7.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n55705aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +134Model 49.2% · Market 43.2%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 11.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -148Model 50.8% · Market 60.2%Edge -9.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n55705aStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 15.5% · Market 21.1%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 84.5% · Market 82.1%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 13.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n55705aStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +146Model 33.3% · Market 40.7%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -161Model 66.7% · Market 62.7%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 13.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n55705aStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 87.9% · Market 91.6%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 12.1% · Market 10.6%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n55705aStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 10.5 +189Model 27.0% · Market 34.6%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -228Model 73.0% · Market 69.5%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 11.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n55705aStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 80.0% · Market 77.3%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 11.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +280Model 20.0% · Market 26.3%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n55705aStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 5.5 -360Model 71.0% · Market 78.3%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +296Model 29.0% · Market 25.3%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nfd1750Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 51.9% · Market 51.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 51.4% · Market 48.8%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%-107 → +105Logit -0.116 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nfd1750Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMinnesota Twins +119Model 43.5% · Market 45.7%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Diego Padres -154Model 60.7% · Market 60.6%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -154 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nfd1750Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +218Model 36.5% · Market 31.4%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 7.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -263Model 63.5% · Market 72.5%Edge -9.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nfd1750Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 10.5 +181Model 27.7% · Market 35.6%Edge -7.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -218Model 72.3% · Market 68.6%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 12.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nfd1750Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +146Model 48.2% · Market 41.2%Edge +7.1% · Full Kelly 12.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -161Model 51.8% · Market 62.2%Edge -10.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nfd1750Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 12.5 +331Model 16.0% · Market 23.2%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -404Model 84.0% · Market 80.2%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 19.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nfd1750Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 11.7% · Market 9.6%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 88.3% · Market 92.5%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+945 → -1236 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nfd1750Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 20.6% · Market 28.4%Edge -7.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 79.4% · Market 75.4%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 16.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nfd1750Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -148Model 65.9% · Market 60.7%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 15.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +134Model 34.1% · Market 42.7%Edge -8.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nfd1750Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 4.5 -788Model 82.5% · Market 88.7%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +625Model 17.5% · Market 13.8%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nfd1750Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 5.5 +313Model 28.2% · Market 24.2%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 71.8% · Market 79.2%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n862b75Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.5% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.9% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.9%+101 → -107Logit 0.078 | 3 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n862b75Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Francisco Giants +189Model 40.7% · Market 34.6%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 9.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants +173Model 39.6% · Market 36.6%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.0%+189 → +173Logit 0.089 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n7af4c3Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassColorado Rockies +140Model 41.3% · Market 41.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassColorado Rockies +140Model 40.1% · Market 41.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+140 → +140Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n7af4c3Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 +101Model 50.2% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 +101Model 50.2% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+101 → +101Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n7af4c3Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 11.5 +109Model 48.1% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +105Model 48.4% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+109 → +105Logit 0.037 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n6344baStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.4% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 50.2% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+105 → +101Logit 0.039 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n6344baStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels +134Model 42.0% · Market 42.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Angels +134Model 43.1% · Market 42.7%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+134 → +134Logit 0.000 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n6344baStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 83.4% · Market 84.9%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 16.6% · Market 18.0%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n6344baStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 27.0% · Market 29.4%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 73.0% · Market 74.4%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n6344baStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 82.8% · Market 85.9%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 17.2% · Market 16.9%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n6344baStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -126Model 54.5% · Market 56.8%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 45.5% · Market 46.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-126 → +114 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n6344baStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 29.2% · Market 29.4%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 70.8% · Market 74.4%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n6344baStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 35.7% · Market 36.6%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 64.3% · Market 66.6%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n6344baStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 21.9% · Market 22.2%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 78.1% · Market 81.1%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n6344baStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 89.0% · Market 89.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 11.0% · Market 12.7%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n6344baStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 65.0% · Market 66.6%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 35.0% · Market 37.6%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-199 → +166 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n12513dStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +152Model 41.4% · Market 39.7%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassHouston Astros -183Model 64.6% · Market 64.7%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -183 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n12513dStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 50.9% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.3% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%-103 → +105Logit -0.078 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n12513dStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -200Model 64.9% · Market 67.1%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +180Model 35.1% · Market 36.2%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n12513dStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 13.5 -609Model 84.1% · Market 85.9%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 13.5 +490Model 15.9% · Market 16.9%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n12513dStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 12.5 -404Model 78.1% · Market 80.2%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +331Model 21.9% · Market 23.2%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n12513dStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 72.8% · Market 75.4%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 27.2% · Market 28.4%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n12513dStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 91.3% · Market 92.5%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 8.7% · Market 9.6%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +945 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n12513dStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +229Model 29.7% · Market 30.4%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -276Model 70.3% · Market 73.4%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n12513dStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 5.5 +331Model 22.5% · Market 23.2%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -404Model 77.5% · Market 80.2%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n12513dStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 86.6% · Market 87.8%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 13.4% · Market 14.8%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n12513dStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -142Model 58.2% · Market 59.7%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +129Model 41.8% · Market 43.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +129 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n12513dStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +140Model 40.7% · Market 41.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -168Model 59.3% · Market 62.7%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n77c6a2Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 48.2% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+105 → +105Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n77c6a2Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago White Sox -103Model 53.8% · Market 50.7%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago White Sox -112Model 53.5% · Market 52.8%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.1%-103 → -112Logit 0.084 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n77c6a2Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 10.1% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 89.9% · Market 90.6%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n77c6a2Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 62.0% · Market 64.6%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +159Model 38.0% · Market 38.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +159 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n77c6a2Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 23.8% · Market 24.2%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 76.2% · Market 79.2%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n77c6a2Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 31.4% · Market 31.4%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 68.6% · Market 72.5%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n77c6a2Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 84.6% · Market 85.9%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 15.4% · Market 16.9%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n77c6a2Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 81.1% · Market 84.0%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 18.9% · Market 19.0%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n77c6a2Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 67.0% · Market 68.6%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 33.0% · Market 35.6%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-218 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n77c6a2Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -126Model 55.7% · Market 56.8%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +114Model 44.3% · Market 46.7%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-126 → +114 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n77c6a2Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 74.8% · Market 75.4%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 25.2% · Market 28.4%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n7c0671Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 50.9% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 50.7% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%-103 → -107Logit 0.038 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n7c0671Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers -116Model 52.0% · Market 53.7%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassKansas City Royals -103Model 53.9% · Market 50.7%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → -103 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n7c0671Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 85.2% · Market 86.8%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 14.8% · Market 15.9%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n7c0671Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 75.3% · Market 77.3%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +280Model 24.7% · Market 26.3%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n7c0671Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -148Model 56.7% · Market 60.2%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +134Model 43.3% · Market 43.2%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n7c0671Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 9.7% · Market 10.6%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 90.3% · Market 91.6%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n7c0671Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 6.5 -251Model 67.9% · Market 71.5%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +208Model 32.1% · Market 32.5%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n7c0671Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 10.5 +181Model 32.3% · Market 35.6%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -218Model 67.7% · Market 68.6%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n7c0671Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +140Model 39.0% · Market 41.7%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -155Model 61.0% · Market 61.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -155 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n7c0671Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 12.5 +351Model 19.6% · Market 22.2%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -430Model 80.4% · Market 81.1%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n7c0671Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 5.5 +296Model 24.5% · Market 25.3%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -360Model 75.5% · Market 78.3%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n791d54Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 52.0% · Market 52.8%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 48.0% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → +105 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n791d54Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals +134Model 44.6% · Market 42.7%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals +140Model 40.3% · Market 41.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%+134 → +140Logit -0.044 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n3e4a4eStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBaltimore Orioles -103Model 53.9% · Market 50.7%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBaltimore Orioles -112Model 53.0% · Market 52.8%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.1%-103 → -112Logit 0.084 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n3e4a4eStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 50.5% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +114Model 49.7% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%-103 → +114Logit -0.161 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nb7365cStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassToronto Blue Jays +119Model 44.9% · Market 45.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassToronto Blue Jays +109Model 45.7% · Market 47.9%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.2%+119 → +109Logit 0.088 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nb7365cStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 49.2% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.2% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.1%+114 → +109Logit 0.045 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nb7365cStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.6% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%-103 → +105Logit -0.078 | 3 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nfcec60Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +181Model 41.0% · Market 35.6%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 8.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +181Model 34.8% · Market 35.6%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+181 → +181Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nfcec60Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -112Model 50.8% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 50.1% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%-112 → +105Logit -0.162 | 3 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat. This chart begins on Aug 23, the first settled paper bet in the retained read model; it does not imply that earlier games were replayed.
- Current bankroll
- $9,806
- Cumulative
- -1.9%
- Best day
- -1.9%
- Worst day
- -1.9%
- Settled bets
- 1
Cumulative bankroll return
Daily bankroll return
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
-$194 · -1.9%
- Bets
- 1
- Record
- 0-1
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 1.9%
Full Kelly benchmark $9,223 · tracked -$194 on $194 settled paper stake · -100.0% ROI
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 15
- Both cleared
- 0
- Rate
- 0.0%