+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
70 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
38 games unified from 120 stored model snapshots on 2026-08-22.
Games38
Settled4
First edge+1.6%
Pregame edge+1.0%
Average CLV-0.2%
Totals CLV+0.5%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n867895Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 50.2% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 50.2% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.9%+109 → +101Logit 0.076 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n867895Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMinnesota Twins +134Model 42.2% · Market 42.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Diego Padres -142Model 58.7% · Market 58.7%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -142 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n867895Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 47.8% · Market 48.8%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 48.6% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+105 → +101Logit 0.039 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n2da574Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.9% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 50.0% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+109 → +105Logit 0.037 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n2da574Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds +140Model 43.8% · Market 41.7%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +159Model 36.7% · Market 38.6%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.1%+140 → +159Logit -0.127 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n2da574Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Paper Kelly tracked | Won11-5Paper stake $97 · P/L $339 | Paper betOver 11.5 +351Model 28.8% · Market 22.2%Edge +6.6% · Full Kelly 8.5%Policy Kelly 1.0% · $97 | Paper betOver 11.5 +351Model 28.8% · Market 22.2%Edge +6.6% · Full Kelly 8.5%Policy Kelly 1.0% · $99 | +0.0%+351 → +351Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n2da574Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Paper Kelly tracked | Won11-5Paper stake $142 · P/L $256 | Paper betOver 9.5 +180Model 43.6% · Market 36.2%Edge +7.4% · Full Kelly 12.2%Policy Kelly 1.4% · $142 | Paper betOver 9.5 +180Model 43.6% · Market 36.2%Edge +7.4% · Full Kelly 12.2%Policy Kelly 1.4% · $142 | +0.0%+180 → +180Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacksevt_129ymh66n2da574Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.5% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.0% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+101 → +105Logit -0.039 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66nb51cafStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCleveland Guardians -142Model 57.2% · Market 58.7%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCleveland Guardians -142Model 59.4% · Market 58.7%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-142 → -142Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66nb51cafStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 +101Model 50.7% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 +105Model 50.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+101 → +105Logit -0.039 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n189a1aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 50.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.7% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -103 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n189a1aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers -112Model 54.6% · Market 52.8%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers -107Model 53.9% · Market 51.7%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%-112 → -107Logit -0.046 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n1eb045Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Francisco Giants +181Model 39.1% · Market 35.6%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants +181Model 36.8% · Market 35.6%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+181 → +181Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n1eb045Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 49.6% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 49.0% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+109 → +109Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n1eb045Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.2% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+109 → +109Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n57063eStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.8% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -103Model 50.5% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -103 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n57063eStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago Cubs -103Model 49.7% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago Cubs +101Model 52.9% · Market 49.8%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%-103 → +101Logit -0.040 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n999abdStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -112Model 50.8% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 50.1% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%-112 → -107Logit -0.046 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n999abdStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassPittsburgh Pirates +208Model 38.8% · Market 32.5%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 9.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassPittsburgh Pirates +229Model 34.6% · Market 30.4%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.1%+208 → +229Logit -0.096 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n1d8b2aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +198Model 38.7% · Market 33.6%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 7.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +208Model 32.3% · Market 32.5%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%+198 → +208Logit -0.049 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n1d8b2aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.7% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.6% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+105 → +101Logit 0.039 | 3 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n2c9092Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago White Sox -121Model 56.0% · Market 54.8%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago White Sox -116Model 55.6% · Market 53.7%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%-121 → -116Logit -0.042 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n2c9092Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 48.7% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.9%+101 → -107Logit 0.078 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n0f12d5Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Paper Kelly tracked | Lost2-3Paper stake $155 · P/L -$155 | Paper betOver 9.5 +181Model 44.3% · Market 35.7%Edge +8.6% · Full Kelly 13.5%Policy Kelly 1.5% · $155 | Paper betOver 9.5 +165Model 44.3% · Market 38.7%Edge +5.6% · Full Kelly 10.5%Policy Kelly 1.3% · $135 | +3.1%+181 → +165Logit 0.131 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n0f12d5Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 50.1% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 50.1% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.0%+105 → -103Logit 0.078 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n0f12d5Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBaltimore Orioles +109Model 48.8% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBaltimore Orioles +114Model 49.5% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%+109 → +114Logit -0.045 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n0f12d5Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Paper Kelly tracked | Lost2-3Paper stake $108 · P/L -$108 | Paper betOver 11.5 +351Model 29.4% · Market 22.2%Edge +7.2% · Full Kelly 9.2%Policy Kelly 1.1% · $108 | Paper betOver 11.5 +331Model 29.4% · Market 23.2%Edge +6.2% · Full Kelly 8.0%Policy Kelly 0.9% · $94 | +1.0%+351 → +331Logit 0.059 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n0f12d5Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.4% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 48.8% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+101 → +101Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n99fa4eStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels +140Model 44.4% · Market 41.7%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Angels +146Model 40.8% · Market 40.6%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+140 → +146Logit -0.042 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n99fa4eStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.4% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.5% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+101 → -103Logit 0.040 | 4 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n274a1dStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +109Model 51.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +109Model 50.6% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+109 → +109Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n274a1dStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +109Model 46.1% · Market 47.9%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +134Model 40.8% · Market 42.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.1%+109 → +134Logit -0.206 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n1f09a1Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 51.0% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +105Model 49.4% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → +105 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n1f09a1Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals +152Model 43.6% · Market 39.7%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals +159Model 39.8% · Market 38.6%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%+152 → +159Logit -0.045 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n6f1518Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAtlanta Braves +134Model 43.3% · Market 42.7%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAtlanta Braves +134Model 41.5% · Market 42.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+134 → +134Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n6f1518Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.8% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.4% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+101 → +101Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nea0f71Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +101Model 49.1% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +101Model 47.9% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+101 → +101Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nea0f71Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Yankees -112Model 52.4% · Market 52.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Yankees -107Model 53.0% · Market 51.7%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%-112 → -107Logit -0.046 | 4 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat. This chart begins on Aug 22, the first settled paper bet in the retained read model; it does not imply that earlier games were replayed.
- Current bankroll
- $10,332
- Cumulative
- +3.3%
- Best day
- +3.3%
- Worst day
- +3.3%
- Settled bets
- 4
Cumulative bankroll return
Daily bankroll return
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$327 · +3.3%
- Bets
- 4
- Record
- 2-2
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 1.3%
Full Kelly benchmark $12,420 · tracked $332 on $502 settled paper stake · +66.2% ROI
+$373 · +3.7%
- Bets
- 4
- Record
- 2-2
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 1.2%
Full Kelly benchmark $13,021 · tracked $377 on $470 settled paper stake · +80.2% ROI
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 15
- Both cleared
- 0
- Rate
- 0.0%