Baseball

Track record

Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.

Retained daily results

70 dates available

Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026

Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.

Game history

First look vs. latest pregame

26 games unified from 72 stored model snapshots on 2026-08-20.

Games26
Settled7
First edge+2.7%
Pregame edge+3.3%
Average CLV-0.8%
Totals CLV-0.6%
GameMarketResultFirst recommendationLatest pregameCLVModel movement
Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n758896Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassLos Angeles Angels +152Model 40.9% · Market 39.7%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassLos Angeles Angels +159Model 40.1% · Market 38.6%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.1%+152 → +159Logit -0.0453 decision snapshots
Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n758896Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 8.5 -116Model 51.5% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 -103Model 48.8% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-116 → -1033 decision snapshots
Washington Nationals at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n229c21Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Paper Kelly trackedLost0-2Paper stake $181 · P/L -$181Paper betOver 8.5 +152Model 49.7% · Market 40.2%Edge +9.5% · Full Kelly 16.6%Policy Kelly 1.8% · $181Paper betOver 8.5 +152Model 49.6% · Market 40.2%Edge +9.4% · Full Kelly 16.4%Policy Kelly 1.8% · $181+0.0%+152 → +152Logit 0.0002 decision snapshots
Washington Nationals at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n229c21Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassWashington Nationals +140Model 43.6% · Market 41.7%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassWashington Nationals +152Model 39.2% · Market 39.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-2.0%+140 → +152Logit -0.0823 decision snapshots
Washington Nationals at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n229c21Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 +101Model 50.4% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-103 → +1013 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66nb29683Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Paper Kelly trackedLost6-1Paper stake $200 · P/L -$200Paper betOver 9.5 +206Model 45.4% · Market 33.1%Edge +12.2% · Full Kelly 18.8%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200Paper betOver 9.5 +218Model 45.4% · Market 31.5%Edge +13.8% · Full Kelly 20.3%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200-1.6%+206 → +218Logit -0.0722 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66nb29683Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.7% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 +101Model 51.4% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+105 → +1013 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66nb29683Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassBaltimore Orioles +105Model 49.5% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassNew York Yankees -116Model 52.5% · Market 53.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+105 → -1163 decision snapshots
New York Yankees at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66nb29683Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Paper Kelly trackedLost6-1Paper stake $200 · P/L -$200Paper betOver 8.5 +140Model 55.1% · Market 42.2%Edge +12.8% · Full Kelly 22.9%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200Paper betOver 8.5 +140Model 55.1% · Market 42.2%Edge +12.8% · Full Kelly 22.9%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200+0.0%+140 → +140Logit 0.0003 decision snapshots
Athletics at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nb1a26bStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 8.5 +101Model 50.8% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.5% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+101 → +1052 decision snapshots
Athletics at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nb1a26bStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassAthletics +119Model 44.2% · Market 45.7%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassKansas City Royals -137Model 62.1% · Market 57.8%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 10.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+119 → -1373 decision snapshots
Seattle Mariners at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nc7a221Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Paper Kelly trackedWon4-7Paper stake $200 · P/L $376Paper betOver 9.5 +188Model 45.8% · Market 35.7%Edge +10.1% · Full Kelly 17.0%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200Paper betOver 9.5 +188Model 45.8% · Market 35.2%Edge +10.6% · Full Kelly 17.0%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200-0.5%+188 → +188Logit -0.0232 decision snapshots
Seattle Mariners at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nc7a221Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.7% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 48.6% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+1.0%+105 → +101Logit 0.0393 decision snapshots
Seattle Mariners at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nc7a221Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassSeattle Mariners +109Model 45.6% · Market 47.9%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassSeattle Mariners +119Model 44.6% · Market 45.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-2.2%+109 → +119Logit -0.0883 decision snapshots
Seattle Mariners at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66nc7a221Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Paper Kelly trackedWon4-7Paper stake $198 · P/L $236Paper betOver 8.5 +119Model 55.5% · Market 46.2%Edge +9.3% · Full Kelly 18.1%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $198Paper betOver 8.5 +119Model 55.5% · Market 46.2%Edge +9.3% · Full Kelly 18.1%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $198+0.0%+119 → +119Logit 0.0003 decision snapshots
Atlanta Braves at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66neda358Starts MoneylinePaper Kelly trackedLost2-0Paper stake $200 · P/L -$200Paper betChicago White Sox -107Model 56.8% · Market 51.7%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 10.6%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200Paper betChicago White Sox -107Model 56.8% · Market 51.7%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 10.6%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200+0.0%-107 → -107Logit 0.0003 decision snapshots
Atlanta Braves at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66neda358Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 8.5 -103Model 50.8% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 50.8% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%-103 → -103Logit 0.0003 decision snapshots
San Francisco Giants at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n2ab86fStarts TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 6.5 +119Model 48.4% · Market 45.7%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 5.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 6.5 +114Model 48.4% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+1.1%+119 → +114Logit 0.0432 decision snapshots
San Francisco Giants at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n2ab86fStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassSan Francisco Giants +159Model 39.7% · Market 38.6%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassSan Francisco Giants +173Model 37.5% · Market 36.6%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-2.0%+159 → +173Logit -0.0843 decision snapshots
San Francisco Giants at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n2ab86fStarts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassOver 7.5 -107Model 49.3% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 +119Model 49.5% · Market 45.7%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 7.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-6.0%-107 → +119Logit -0.2423 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66ne7cd34Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassToronto Blue Jays +140Model 42.1% · Market 41.7%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassToronto Blue Jays +140Model 40.8% · Market 41.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+140 → +140Logit 0.0003 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66ne7cd34Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Paper Kelly trackedLost5-1Paper stake $95 · P/L -$95Paper betOver 11.5 +490Model 23.8% · Market 16.9%Edge +6.9% · Full Kelly 8.3%Policy Kelly 0.9% · $95Paper betOver 11.5 +490Model 23.8% · Market 16.9%Edge +6.9% · Full Kelly 8.3%Policy Kelly 1.0% · $100+0.0%+490 → +490Logit 0.0002 decision snapshots
Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66ne7cd34Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 7.5 -103Model 51.1% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 7.5 +105Model 50.1% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-103 → +1053 decision snapshots
St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n0ca69eStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 8.5 +109Model 51.1% · Market 47.9%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 +109Model 50.9% · Market 47.9%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+109 → +109Logit 0.0003 decision snapshots
St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n0ca69eStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassCincinnati Reds -103Model 50.5% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassCincinnati Reds -103Model 54.0% · Market 50.7%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%-103 → -103Logit 0.0003 decision snapshots
St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n0ca69eStarts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassOver 9.5 +109Model 47.2% · Market 47.9%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +114Model 47.3% · Market 46.7%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.1%+109 → +114Logit -0.0453 decision snapshots
Paper portfolio & staking results

Paper Bankroll

Daily and cumulative return

The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat. This chart begins on Aug 20, the first settled paper bet in the retained read model; it does not imply that earlier games were replayed.

Current bankroll
$9,736
Cumulative
-2.6%
Best day
-2.6%
Worst day
-2.6%
Settled bets
7

Cumulative bankroll return

+0.3%-0.5%-1.3%-2.1%-3.0%Aug 20Aug 22Aug 24

Daily bankroll return

+2.6%-2.6%Aug 20Aug 22Aug 24

Kelly Performance

Recommended Kelly bets by market

This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.

Moneyline · opening$9,800

-$200 · -2.0%

Bets
1
Record
0-1
Avg. policy Kelly
2.0%

Full Kelly benchmark $8,942 · tracked -$200 on $200 settled paper stake · -100.0% ROI

Moneyline · pregame$9,800

-$200 · -2.0%

Bets
1
Record
0-1
Avg. policy Kelly
2.0%

Full Kelly benchmark $8,942 · tracked -$200 on $200 settled paper stake · -100.0% ROI

Totals · opening$9,921

-$79 · -0.8%

Bets
6
Record
2-4
Avg. policy Kelly
1.8%

Full Kelly benchmark $7,671 · tracked -$64 on $1,074 settled paper stake · -5.9% ROI

Totals · pregame$9,915

-$85 · -0.8%

Bets
6
Record
2-4
Avg. policy Kelly
1.8%

Full Kelly benchmark $7,551 · tracked -$69 on $1,080 settled paper stake · -6.4% ROI

Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure

This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.

Both markets priced
9
Both cleared
0
Rate
0.0%