+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
70 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
40 games unified from 168 stored model snapshots on 2026-08-19.
Games40
Settled6
First edge+1.9%
Pregame edge+1.6%
Average CLV+0.2%
Totals CLV+0.1%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n3acf38Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassColorado Rockies +166Model 46.7% · Market 37.6%Edge +9.1% · Full Kelly 14.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassColorado Rockies +166Model 44.3% · Market 37.6%Edge +6.7% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+166 → +166Logit 0.000 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66n3acf38Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 11.5 +101Model 47.7% · Market 49.8%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 -103Model 48.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+101 → -103Logit 0.040 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n592e85Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 51.8% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 50.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%-112 → -107Logit -0.046 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n592e85Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels +134Model 45.4% · Market 42.7%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassHouston Astros -154Model 60.4% · Market 60.6%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -154 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n064c4dStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals +114Model 48.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTexas Rangers -131Model 55.0% · Market 56.7%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -131 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n064c4dStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-103 → -103Logit 0.000 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n064c4dStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Paper Kelly tracked | Lost6-0Paper stake $78 · P/L -$78 | Paper betOver 9.5 +189Model 39.7% · Market 34.7%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 7.9%Policy Kelly 0.8% · $78 | Paper betOver 9.5 +197Model 39.7% · Market 34.1%Edge +5.6% · Full Kelly 9.1%Policy Kelly 1.1% · $109 | -0.5%+189 → +197Logit -0.023 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n064c4dStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Paper Kelly tracked | Lost6-0Paper stake $90 · P/L -$90 | Paper betOver 8.5 +129Model 49.4% · Market 44.2%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 10.2%Policy Kelly 0.9% · $90 | Paper betOver 8.5 +129Model 49.4% · Market 44.2%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 10.2%Policy Kelly 1.0% · $96 | +0.0%+129 → +129Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n83d9a6Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSeattle Mariners +105Model 46.8% · Market 48.8%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSeattle Mariners +105Model 47.0% · Market 48.8%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+105 → +105Logit 0.000 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n83d9a6Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 +114Model 49.5% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 5.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +101Model 50.2% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.0%+114 → +101Logit 0.121 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n83d9a6Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Paper Kelly tracked | Won7-5Paper stake $169 · P/L $425 | Paper betOver 9.5 +252Model 38.9% · Market 28.4%Edge +10.5% · Full Kelly 14.6%Policy Kelly 1.7% · $169 | Paper betOver 9.5 +229Model 38.9% · Market 30.4%Edge +8.5% · Full Kelly 12.2%Policy Kelly 1.4% · $139 | +2.0%+252 → +229Logit 0.096 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n83d9a6Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Paper Kelly tracked | Won7-5Paper stake $103 · P/L $506 | Paper betOver 11.5 +490Model 24.2% · Market 16.9%Edge +7.2% · Full Kelly 8.7%Policy Kelly 1.0% · $103 | Paper betOver 11.5 +490Model 24.2% · Market 16.9%Edge +7.2% · Full Kelly 8.7%Policy Kelly 1.0% · $105 | +0.0%+490 → +490Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n83d9a6Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Paper Kelly tracked | Won7-5Paper stake $200 · P/L $346 | Paper betOver 8.5 +173Model 48.5% · Market 37.1%Edge +11.4% · Full Kelly 18.8%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betOver 8.5 +173Model 48.5% · Market 37.1%Edge +11.4% · Full Kelly 18.8%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%+173 → +173Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n83d9a6Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +119Model 48.7% · Market 45.7%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +119Model 47.8% · Market 45.7%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+119 → +119Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n9f0b17Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassKansas City Royals -137Model 57.0% · Market 57.8%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassKansas City Royals -199Model 64.6% · Market 66.6%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +8.8%-137 → -199Logit 0.373 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n9f0b17Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 50.8% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 50.2% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-103 → -103Logit 0.000 | 6 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n8e7c94Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 52.1% · Market 52.8%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -116Model 51.8% · Market 53.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%-112 → -116Logit 0.035 | 5 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n8e7c94Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +124Model 47.8% · Market 44.6%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 5.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +119Model 44.9% · Market 45.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+124 → +119Logit 0.041 | 6 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66na5a03eStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 +105Model 48.9% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +105Model 49.5% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+105 → +105Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66na5a03eStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Francisco Giants +152Model 42.8% · Market 39.7%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants +189Model 40.3% · Market 34.6%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 8.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.1%+152 → +189Logit -0.218 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66ne8b3acStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassToronto Blue Jays +181Model 40.9% · Market 35.6%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 8.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassToronto Blue Jays +166Model 40.1% · Market 37.6%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.0%+181 → +166Logit 0.086 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66ne8b3acStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.9% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +109Model 49.7% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → +109 | 5 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n6390c4Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBaltimore Orioles +105Model 48.8% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Yankees -116Model 51.7% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -116 | 6 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66n6390c4Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -121Model 52.7% · Market 54.8%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +105Model 47.5% · Market 48.8%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-121 → +105 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n0a3ac4Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassPhiladelphia Phillies -131Model 54.9% · Market 56.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins +119Model 46.5% · Market 45.7%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +119 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n0a3ac4Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 51.9% · Market 52.8%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 51.1% · Market 48.8%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.0%-112 → +105Logit -0.162 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n8a92bfStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Paper Kelly tracked | Won7-6Paper stake $147 · P/L $254 | Paper betOver 9.5 +173Model 43.9% · Market 37.6%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 11.5%Policy Kelly 1.5% · $147 | Paper betOver 9.5 +173Model 43.9% · Market 37.1%Edge +6.8% · Full Kelly 11.5%Policy Kelly 1.4% · $136 | -0.5%+173 → +173Logit -0.022 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n8a92bfStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBoston Red Sox -148Model 58.1% · Market 59.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassArizona Diamondbacks +134Model 44.5% · Market 42.7%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +134 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n8a92bfStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.1% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.7% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%+101 → +109Logit -0.076 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n8a92bfStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 49.4% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 48.9% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+109 → +109Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n5894e6Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.7% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 49.8% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.9%+105 → -107Logit 0.116 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n5894e6Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago White Sox +129Model 46.1% · Market 43.7%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago Cubs -148Model 57.6% · Market 59.7%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -148 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n5894e6Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 48.8% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 48.8% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+101 → +101Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nad136aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +101Model 50.9% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +101Model 50.6% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+101 → +101Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nad136aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMinnesota Twins -107Model 51.9% · Market 51.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMinnesota Twins -103Model 51.6% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%-107 → -103Logit -0.038 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nf2419eStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Mets +114Model 49.1% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Mets +119Model 48.5% · Market 45.7%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%+114 → +119Logit -0.043 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nf2419eStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 52.2% · Market 51.7%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 51.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-107 → -107Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n3154a9Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers +129Model 47.8% · Market 43.7%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 7.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers +134Model 49.2% · Market 42.7%Edge +6.5% · Full Kelly 11.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+129 → +134Logit -0.038 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n3154a9Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 48.5% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 48.5% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+105 → +101Logit 0.039 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n3154a9Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.9% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 49.9% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+105 → +109Logit -0.037 | 3 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat. This chart begins on Aug 19, the first settled paper bet in the retained read model; it does not imply that earlier games were replayed.
- Current bankroll
- $11,363
- Cumulative
- +13.6%
- Best day
- +13.6%
- Worst day
- +13.6%
- Settled bets
- 6
Cumulative bankroll return
Daily bankroll return
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$1,425 · +14.3%
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 4-2
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 1.3%
Full Kelly benchmark $25,649 · tracked $1,363 on $787 settled paper stake · +173.2% ROI
+$1,252 · +12.5%
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 4-2
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 1.3%
Full Kelly benchmark $23,636 · tracked $1,207 on $785 settled paper stake · +153.7% ROI
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 15
- Both cleared
- 0
- Rate
- 0.0%