+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
70 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
34 games unified from 111 stored model snapshots on 2026-08-18.
Games34
Settled2
First edge+6.3%
Pregame edge+6.2%
Average CLV-0.3%
Totals CLV-0.1%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66nf366d4Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 11.5 -107Model 52.2% · Market 49.5%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -103Model 51.7% · Market 48.6%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%-107 → -103Logit -0.035 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66nf366d4Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassColorado Rockies +159Model 46.6% · Market 37.0%Edge +9.6% · Full Kelly 13.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassColorado Rockies +166Model 44.5% · Market 36.1%Edge +8.4% · Full Kelly 11.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+159 → +166Logit -0.041 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66nf366d4Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +266Model 47.3% · Market 26.4%Edge +21.0% · Full Kelly 27.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +266Model 47.3% · Market 26.4%Edge +21.0% · Full Kelly 27.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+266 → +266Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n67b11dStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +109Model 46.4% · Market 45.8%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +105Model 47.2% · Market 46.7%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+109 → +105Logit 0.037 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n67b11dStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels +140Model 45.2% · Market 39.9%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Angels +140Model 45.3% · Market 39.9%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+140 → +140Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n9522feStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +114Model 50.1% · Market 44.7%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.7% · Market 47.6%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.9%+114 → +101Logit 0.117 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at Texas Rangersevt_129ymh66n9522feStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals +129Model 47.4% · Market 41.4%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals +124Model 46.0% · Market 42.8%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.3%+129 → +124Logit 0.055 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nbe7c47Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago White Sox +140Model 45.2% · Market 39.9%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago White Sox +152Model 39.7% · Market 38.0%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%+140 → +152Logit -0.080 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nbe7c47Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 10.5 +189Model 45.7% · Market 33.2%Edge +12.5% · Full Kelly 17.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +140Model 45.6% · Market 39.9%Edge +5.6% · Full Kelly 6.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +6.7%+189 → +140Logit 0.289 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n708d27Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMinnesota Twins +109Model 50.9% · Market 45.8%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMinnesota Twins +124Model 48.1% · Market 42.8%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.0%+109 → +124Logit -0.120 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n708d27Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +129Model 47.5% · Market 41.9%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +124Model 48.0% · Market 42.8%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+129 → +124Logit 0.038 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n708d27Starts | TotalOpening line 2.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 2.5 +2243Model 38.1% · Market 4.2%Edge +33.9% · Full Kelly 35.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 2.5 +2243Model 38.1% · Market 4.2%Edge +33.9% · Full Kelly 35.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+2243 → +2243Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66na326daStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +119Model 47.5% · Market 43.8%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +124Model 48.5% · Market 42.8%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 7.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+119 → +124Logit -0.040 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66na326daStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSeattle Mariners +134Model 41.7% · Market 40.9%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSeattle Mariners +146Model 43.4% · Market 39.0%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%+134 → +146Logit -0.081 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nb7a165Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassKansas City Royals -137Model 55.6% · Market 54.7%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +140Model 41.9% · Market 39.9%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +140 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nb7a165Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 11.5 +173Model 44.1% · Market 35.2%Edge +9.0% · Full Kelly 11.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +218Model 44.4% · Market 30.3%Edge +14.1% · Full Kelly 18.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.9%+173 → +218Logit -0.223 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nb049afStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Paper Kelly tracked | Won4-9Paper stake $146 · P/L $582 | Paper betOver 11.5 +398Model 29.8% · Market 19.5%Edge +10.4% · Full Kelly 12.2%Policy Kelly 1.5% · $146 | Paper betOver 11.5 +398Model 29.8% · Market 19.5%Edge +10.4% · Full Kelly 12.2%Policy Kelly 1.5% · $146 | +0.0%+398 → +398Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nb049afStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassArizona Diamondbacks +140Model 41.9% · Market 39.6%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassArizona Diamondbacks +146Model 43.6% · Market 39.0%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.6%+140 → +146Logit -0.025 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nb049afStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +140Model 47.4% · Market 39.9%Edge +7.5% · Full Kelly 9.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +181Model 48.0% · Market 34.2%Edge +13.8% · Full Kelly 19.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.8%+140 → +181Logit -0.247 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nb049afStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Paper Kelly tracked | Won4-9Paper stake $200 · P/L $179 | Paper betOver 7.5 -112Model 63.0% · Market 51.9%Edge +11.0% · Full Kelly 21.5%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betOver 7.5 -112Model 63.0% · Market 51.9%Edge +11.0% · Full Kelly 21.5%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%-112 → -112Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nb214efStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 52.2% · Market 49.5%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 51.4% · Market 49.5%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-107 → -107Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nb214efStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Mets -103Model 49.0% · Market 48.6%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Diego Padres -121Model 52.0% · Market 51.9%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -121 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n2928b3Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Francisco Giants +159Model 42.0% · Market 36.7%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants +166Model 43.4% · Market 36.1%Edge +7.3% · Full Kelly 9.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.6%+159 → +166Logit -0.026 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Francisco Giants at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n2928b3Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +114Model 50.9% · Market 44.7%Edge +6.2% · Full Kelly 7.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +114Model 50.2% · Market 44.7%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+114 → +114Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n2db21bStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds +101Model 49.4% · Market 47.6%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +101Model 48.6% · Market 47.6%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+101 → +101Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n2db21bStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +101Model 51.3% · Market 47.6%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +109Model 51.1% · Market 45.8%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%+101 → +109Logit -0.074 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n545c66Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers +119Model 47.2% · Market 43.8%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers +129Model 47.0% · Market 41.9%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%+119 → +129Logit -0.077 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n545c66Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 48.7% · Market 44.7%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 48.9% · Market 44.7%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+114 → +114Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n601a80Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -103Model 49.5% · Market 48.6%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -103Model 49.7% · Market 48.6%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-103 → -103Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n601a80Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassToronto Blue Jays +119Model 44.4% · Market 43.4%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTampa Bay Rays -137Model 55.7% · Market 55.3%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -137 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nafe764Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMiami Marlins +198Model 46.6% · Market 32.3%Edge +14.3% · Full Kelly 19.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins +181Model 42.8% · Market 34.2%Edge +8.6% · Full Kelly 11.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.9%+198 → +181Logit 0.087 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66nafe764Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 48.0% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -121Model 52.9% · Market 52.4%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -121 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66nb3c440Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBaltimore Orioles -103Model 50.0% · Market 48.6%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBaltimore Orioles -103Model 50.3% · Market 49.0%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.4%-103 → -103Logit 0.016 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Baltimore Oriolesevt_129ymh66nb3c440Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +134Model 49.8% · Market 40.9%Edge +8.8% · Full Kelly 12.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +129Model 49.7% · Market 41.9%Edge +7.8% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+134 → +129Logit 0.039 | 3 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat. This chart begins on Aug 18, the first settled paper bet in the retained read model; it does not imply that earlier games were replayed.
- Current bankroll
- $10,761
- Cumulative
- +7.6%
- Best day
- +7.6%
- Worst day
- +7.6%
- Settled bets
- 2
Cumulative bankroll return
Daily bankroll return
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$771 · +7.7%
- Bets
- 2
- Record
- 2-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 1.7%
Full Kelly benchmark $17,712 · tracked $761 on $346 settled paper stake · +219.7% ROI
+$771 · +7.7%
- Bets
- 2
- Record
- 2-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 1.7%
Full Kelly benchmark $17,712 · tracked $761 on $346 settled paper stake · +219.7% ROI
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 15
- Both cleared
- 3
- Rate
- 20.0%