-$396 · -4.0%
- Bets
- 2
- Record
- 0-2
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 2.0%
Full Kelly benchmark $6,923 · tracked -$400 on $400 settled paper stake · -100.0% ROI
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
70 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
28 games unified from 84 stored model snapshots on 2026-08-17.
Games28
Settled2
First edge+10.3%
Pregame edge+10.3%
Average CLV-0.0%
Totals CLV+0.1%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66nc591cbStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 +101Model 50.8% · Market 47.6%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 +101Model 51.2% · Market 47.6%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+101 → +101Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockiesevt_129ymh66nc591cbStarts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Lost11-5Paper stake $200 · P/L -$200 | Paper betColorado Rockies +240Model 42.0% · Market 28.3%Edge +13.7% · Full Kelly 17.8%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betColorado Rockies +240Model 42.0% · Market 28.3%Edge +13.7% · Full Kelly 17.8%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%+240 → +240Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n60ba55Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +114Model 49.4% · Market 44.7%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +114Model 49.6% · Market 44.7%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+114 → +114Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n60ba55Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago White Sox +134Model 43.7% · Market 40.9%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago Cubs -161Model 59.2% · Market 59.1%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -161 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n3e6808Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +152Model 43.5% · Market 37.7%Edge +5.8% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +159Model 42.2% · Market 37.0%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.6%+152 → +159Logit -0.027 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Athletics at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n3e6808Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +109Model 47.4% · Market 45.8%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +124Model 47.2% · Market 42.8%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.0%+109 → +124Logit -0.120 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n44abddStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +114Model 47.6% · Market 44.7%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +101Model 48.4% · Market 47.2%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.5%+114 → +101Logit 0.099 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n44abddStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMinnesota Twins +109Model 50.7% · Market 45.8%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMinnesota Twins +109Model 47.6% · Market 45.3%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%+109 → +109Logit -0.019 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n44abddStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 41.0% · Market 8.3%Edge +32.6% · Full Kelly 35.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 41.0% · Market 8.3%Edge +32.6% · Full Kelly 35.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+1074 → +1074Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n9e5358Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 40.6% · Market 18.5%Edge +22.1% · Full Kelly 26.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 41.4% · Market 16.5%Edge +24.9% · Full Kelly 29.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%+425 → +490Logit -0.139 | 3 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n9e5358Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Diego Padres +101Model 47.9% · Market 47.6%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Diego Padres +105Model 48.5% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+101 → +105Logit -0.038 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66na1828aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +109Model 50.5% · Market 45.8%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.2% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+109 → +105Logit 0.037 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66na1828aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassArizona Diamondbacks +129Model 42.7% · Market 41.9%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassArizona Diamondbacks +114Model 45.7% · Market 44.7%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.8%+129 → +114Logit 0.115 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66na01140Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassPittsburgh Pirates +101Model 49.3% · Market 47.6%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers -107Model 52.5% · Market 49.5%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → -107 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66na01140Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 48.6% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 51.1% · Market 49.5%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -107 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66na01140Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 49.7% · Market 43.8%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 7.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 49.7% · Market 43.8%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 7.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+119 → +119Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n149963Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +165Model 49.7% · Market 36.5%Edge +13.2% · Full Kelly 19.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +158Model 48.8% · Market 37.9%Edge +11.0% · Full Kelly 16.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.3%+165 → +158Logit 0.057 | 4 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n149963Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds -103Model 50.3% · Market 49.5%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +105Model 51.1% · Market 47.6%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%-103 → +105Logit -0.078 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n995138Starts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Lost5-6Paper stake $200 · P/L -$200 | Paper betMiami Marlins +208Model 43.1% · Market 31.2%Edge +11.9% · Full Kelly 15.7%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betMiami Marlins +208Model 43.1% · Market 31.2%Edge +11.9% · Full Kelly 15.7%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | +0.0%+208 → +208Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n995138Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 47.6% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -116Model 52.0% · Market 51.4%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -116 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n995138Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 42.8% · Market 11.3%Edge +31.4% · Full Kelly 35.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 42.4% · Market 11.4%Edge +30.9% · Full Kelly 34.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.1%+756 → +756Logit 0.011 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nfc12e5Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBaltimore Orioles +134Model 42.6% · Market 40.9%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBaltimore Orioles +140Model 42.0% · Market 39.9%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+134 → +140Logit -0.042 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nfc12e5Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 42.6% · Market 20.5%Edge +22.1% · Full Kelly 27.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 44.1% · Market 20.5%Edge +23.6% · Full Kelly 29.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+373 → +373Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nfc12e5Starts | TotalOpening line 2.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 2.5 +1464Model 38.8% · Market 6.3%Edge +32.5% · Full Kelly 34.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 2.5 +1464Model 38.8% · Market 6.3%Edge +32.5% · Full Kelly 34.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+1464 → +1464Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66nfc12e5Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 43.0% · Market 12.4%Edge +30.6% · Full Kelly 34.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 41.9% · Market 12.4%Edge +29.5% · Full Kelly 33.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+685 → +685Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n8aaf08Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +129Model 51.4% · Market 40.0%Edge +11.4% · Full Kelly 13.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +134Model 50.9% · Market 41.7%Edge +9.1% · Full Kelly 14.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.8%+129 → +134Logit 0.074 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n8aaf08Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds -103Model 50.5% · Market 49.5%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals -107Model 51.3% · Market 50.5%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -107 | 4 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n8aaf08Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +291Model 47.5% · Market 25.1%Edge +22.4% · Full Kelly 29.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +291Model 47.5% · Market 25.1%Edge +22.4% · Full Kelly 29.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+291 → +291Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat. This chart begins on Aug 17, the first settled paper bet in the retained read model; it does not imply that earlier games were replayed.
- Current bankroll
- $9,600
- Cumulative
- -4.0%
- Best day
- -4.0%
- Worst day
- -4.0%
- Settled bets
- 2
Cumulative bankroll return
Daily bankroll return
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
-$396 · -4.0%
- Bets
- 2
- Record
- 0-2
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 2.0%
Full Kelly benchmark $6,923 · tracked -$400 on $400 settled paper stake · -100.0% ROI
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 11
- Both cleared
- 1
- Rate
- 9.1%