+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
70 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
37 games unified from 110 stored model snapshots on 2026-08-16.
Games37
Settled0
First edge+9.6%
Pregame edge+9.6%
Average CLV-0.2%
Totals CLV-0.3%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n5e823fStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 49.0% · Market 36.1%Edge +12.9% · Full Kelly 18.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +159Model 48.2% · Market 37.0%Edge +11.2% · Full Kelly 15.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+166 → +159Logit 0.041 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n5e823fStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSeattle Mariners +114Model 48.2% · Market 44.7%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSeattle Mariners +109Model 49.1% · Market 45.8%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.1%+114 → +109Logit 0.043 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nde2a5bStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +198Model 45.9% · Market 32.3%Edge +13.7% · Full Kelly 18.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +229Model 46.4% · Market 29.3%Edge +17.1% · Full Kelly 23.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.0%+198 → +229Logit -0.140 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66nde2a5bStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMilwaukee Brewers +146Model 47.1% · Market 39.0%Edge +8.1% · Full Kelly 10.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMilwaukee Brewers +159Model 45.8% · Market 37.0%Edge +8.8% · Full Kelly 11.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%+146 → +159Logit -0.082 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n809723Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 5.5 +398Model 46.6% · Market 19.5%Edge +27.1% · Full Kelly 33.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +313Model 45.9% · Market 23.4%Edge +22.5% · Full Kelly 28.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.9%+398 → +313Logit 0.234 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n809723Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels +105Model 54.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +8.1% · Full Kelly 11.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Angels +101Model 52.0% · Market 48.1%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.4%+105 → +101Logit 0.057 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n994b3bStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -116Model 54.3% · Market 51.4%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +129Model 46.4% · Market 41.9%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → +129 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n994b3bStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +119Model 49.5% · Market 43.8%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 7.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +114Model 46.9% · Market 44.7%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+119 → +114Logit 0.038 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nb3c84aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 49.5% · Market 35.2%Edge +14.3% · Full Kelly 20.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 48.9% · Market 36.1%Edge +12.8% · Full Kelly 18.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+173 → +166Logit 0.041 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nb3c84aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Francisco Giants -131Model 55.7% · Market 54.2%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants -131Model 57.8% · Market 54.2%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-131 → -131Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nb3c84aStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 47.3% · Market 27.4%Edge +19.9% · Full Kelly 26.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 47.3% · Market 27.4%Edge +19.9% · Full Kelly 26.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+252 → +252Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66ne67f46Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +129Model 47.0% · Market 41.9%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +119Model 46.8% · Market 43.8%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.9%+129 → +119Logit 0.077 | 3 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66ne67f46Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +134Model 41.3% · Market 40.9%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +152Model 39.8% · Market 38.0%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%+134 → +152Logit -0.121 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nfb1b14Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMinnesota Twins -103Model 49.2% · Market 48.6%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassPhiladelphia Phillies -112Model 52.0% · Market 50.5%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -112 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nfb1b14Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +105Model 47.0% · Market 46.2%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +101Model 48.2% · Market 47.6%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.4%+105 → +101Logit 0.055 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n241c09Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers -112Model 55.3% · Market 50.5%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers -116Model 55.1% · Market 51.4%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%-112 → -116Logit 0.035 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n241c09Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 48.3% · Market 45.8%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 48.6% · Market 45.8%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+109 → +109Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n241c09Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 41.8% · Market 11.4%Edge +30.3% · Full Kelly 34.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 41.8% · Market 11.4%Edge +30.3% · Full Kelly 34.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+756 → +756Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n9689ceStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds +101Model 48.6% · Market 47.2%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins -126Model 53.4% · Market 52.8%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → -126 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n9689ceStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +105Model 47.1% · Market 46.7%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +146Model 47.9% · Market 39.0%Edge +8.9% · Full Kelly 12.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -7.7%+105 → +146Logit -0.315 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n9689ceStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 41.4% · Market 9.4%Edge +32.0% · Full Kelly 35.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 41.4% · Market 9.4%Edge +32.0% · Full Kelly 35.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+945 → +945Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at New York Metsevt_129ymh66naddbeaStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -116Model 52.8% · Market 51.4%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 52.7% · Market 49.5%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%-116 → -107Logit -0.079 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at New York Metsevt_129ymh66naddbeaStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals +146Model 45.9% · Market 39.0%Edge +6.9% · Full Kelly 8.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals +140Model 46.3% · Market 39.9%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 7.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+146 → +140Logit 0.040 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at New York Metsevt_129ymh66naddbeaStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 45.3% · Market 15.5%Edge +29.9% · Full Kelly 35.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 45.3% · Market 15.5%Edge +29.9% · Full Kelly 35.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+529 → +529Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nd1481dStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCleveland Guardians -103Model 52.2% · Market 48.6%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCleveland Guardians -103Model 50.1% · Market 48.6%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-103 → -103Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nd1481dStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 47.9% · Market 47.6%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 48.1% · Market 47.6%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+101 → +101Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66ne25782Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 +105Model 49.5% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +146Model 49.8% · Market 39.0%Edge +10.8% · Full Kelly 15.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -7.7%+105 → +146Logit -0.315 | 3 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66ne25782Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Yankees +101Model 47.7% · Market 47.2%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassToronto Blue Jays -126Model 53.7% · Market 53.3%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → -126 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n6948bbStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAtlanta Braves -126Model 53.7% · Market 53.3%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassArizona Diamondbacks +105Model 48.2% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-126 → +105 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n6948bbStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 10.5 +166Model 44.9% · Market 35.8%Edge +9.2% · Full Kelly 11.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +152Model 45.6% · Market 38.0%Edge +7.6% · Full Kelly 9.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.3%+166 → +152Logit 0.098 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n6948bbStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +229Model 48.3% · Market 29.3%Edge +19.0% · Full Kelly 25.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +229Model 48.3% · Market 29.3%Edge +19.0% · Full Kelly 25.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+229 → +229Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n6948bbStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 4.5 +625Model 44.4% · Market 13.5%Edge +31.0% · Full Kelly 35.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +625Model 44.4% · Market 13.5%Edge +31.0% · Full Kelly 35.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+625 → +625Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n6948bbStarts | TotalOpening line 2.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 2.5 +1775Model 39.3% · Market 5.1%Edge +34.2% · Full Kelly 35.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 2.5 +1775Model 39.3% · Market 5.1%Edge +34.2% · Full Kelly 35.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+1775 → +1775Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n6ecfc7Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassPittsburgh Pirates +101Model 50.8% · Market 47.6%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBoston Red Sox -116Model 51.7% · Market 51.4%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → -116 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n6ecfc7Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 49.2% · Market 45.8%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +114Model 49.3% · Market 44.7%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%+109 → +114Logit -0.043 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n9aa48eStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 49.5% · Market 36.1%Edge +13.4% · Full Kelly 19.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +140Model 48.6% · Market 39.9%Edge +8.6% · Full Kelly 11.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.8%+166 → +140Logit 0.163 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n9aa48eStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassTampa Bay Rays -148Model 57.0% · Market 56.6%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBaltimore Orioles +124Model 43.0% · Market 42.8%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +124 | 4 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
No settled paper bets are available yet. The trend begins after the first recommended stake is graded.
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 15
- Both cleared
- 2
- Rate
- 13.3%