+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
70 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
31 games unified from 106 stored model snapshots on 2026-08-15.
Games31
Settled2
First edge+3.9%
Pregame edge+3.8%
Average CLV+0.0%
Totals CLV-0.1%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd3bf30Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +114Model 47.1% · Market 44.7%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +134Model 43.8% · Market 40.5%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.2%+114 → +134Logit -0.170 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nd3bf30Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -121Model 52.8% · Market 52.4%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +101Model 48.0% · Market 47.6%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-121 → +101 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n5fa36dStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels -154Model 59.2% · Market 58.1%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassKansas City Royals +129Model 41.9% · Market 41.4%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-154 → +129 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n5fa36dStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 48.4% · Market 33.2%Edge +15.2% · Full Kelly 21.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 48.0% · Market 35.2%Edge +12.8% · Full Kelly 17.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.9%+189 → +173Logit 0.086 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n119627Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Dodgers +109Model 51.6% · Market 45.3%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 7.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Dodgers +105Model 54.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +8.1% · Full Kelly 11.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.4%+109 → +105Logit 0.056 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n119627Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -116Model 51.5% · Market 51.4%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +105Model 49.2% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → +105 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nba9da9Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Paper Kelly tracked | Lost4-0Paper stake $172 · P/L -$172 | Paper betOver 7.5 -112Model 50.8% · Market 50.5%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 1.7% · $172 | Paper betOver 7.5 -112Model 50.8% · Market 50.5%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 1.7% · $172 | +0.0%-112 → -112Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nba9da9Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassPittsburgh Pirates +105Model 49.9% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBoston Red Sox -126Model 53.5% · Market 52.8%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → -126 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66nba9da9Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Paper Kelly tracked | Lost4-0Paper stake $149 · P/L -$149 | Paper betOver 9.5 +189Model 43.6% · Market 33.2%Edge +10.4% · Full Kelly 13.8%Policy Kelly 1.5% · $149 | Paper betOver 9.5 +189Model 43.6% · Market 33.2%Edge +10.4% · Full Kelly 13.8%Policy Kelly 1.5% · $149 | +0.0%+189 → +189Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nedcce6Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassArizona Diamondbacks +114Model 45.6% · Market 44.7%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassArizona Diamondbacks +114Model 45.7% · Market 44.7%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+114 → +114Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66nedcce6Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 +114Model 51.7% · Market 44.7%Edge +7.0% · Full Kelly 9.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +109Model 50.9% · Market 45.8%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.1%+114 → +109Logit 0.043 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n189b86Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 48.9% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.8% · Market 47.2%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.5%+105 → +101Logit 0.020 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n189b86Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMinnesota Twins +129Model 48.2% · Market 41.9%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 8.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMinnesota Twins +109Model 46.0% · Market 45.8%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.9%+129 → +109Logit 0.158 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n2053c0Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 51.7% · Market 50.5%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 50.9% · Market 49.5%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%-112 → -107Logit -0.044 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n2053c0Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSeattle Mariners +105Model 46.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSeattle Mariners +105Model 48.1% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+105 → +105Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nd69432Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 47.9% · Market 47.6%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 51.2% · Market 50.5%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -112 | 4 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66nd69432Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Diego Padres +105Model 47.5% · Market 46.7%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Diego Padres -103Model 50.9% · Market 48.6%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.9%+105 → -103Logit 0.077 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n656a8dStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +105Model 47.1% · Market 46.7%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +114Model 47.8% · Market 44.7%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%+105 → +114Logit -0.079 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66n656a8dStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMiami Marlins -107Model 49.6% · Market 49.5%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins -107Model 50.4% · Market 49.5%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-107 → -107Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n9c1edeStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBaltimore Orioles +124Model 43.6% · Market 42.8%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBaltimore Orioles +129Model 42.6% · Market 41.9%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+124 → +129Logit -0.038 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66n9c1edeStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +134Model 49.9% · Market 40.9%Edge +9.0% · Full Kelly 12.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +134Model 49.5% · Market 40.9%Edge +8.6% · Full Kelly 11.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+134 → +134Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nf30d04Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals +119Model 47.2% · Market 44.1%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals +114Model 47.2% · Market 44.3%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.2%+119 → +114Logit 0.008 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at New York Metsevt_129ymh66nf30d04Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +152Model 45.8% · Market 38.0%Edge +7.7% · Full Kelly 10.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +166Model 46.3% · Market 36.1%Edge +10.2% · Full Kelly 14.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%+152 → +166Logit -0.083 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n7fa9b9Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 51.6% · Market 48.6%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 51.0% · Market 48.6%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 0.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-103 → -103Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n7fa9b9Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassColorado Rockies +152Model 40.4% · Market 38.0%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassColorado Rockies +140Model 40.2% · Market 39.9%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.9%+152 → +140Logit 0.080 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n9c3bc5Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassToronto Blue Jays +146Model 49.3% · Market 39.0%Edge +10.3% · Full Kelly 14.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassToronto Blue Jays +159Model 49.4% · Market 37.0%Edge +12.4% · Full Kelly 17.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%+146 → +159Logit -0.082 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n9c3bc5Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +140Model 48.4% · Market 39.9%Edge +8.5% · Full Kelly 11.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +129Model 48.2% · Market 41.9%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 8.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.9%+140 → +129Logit 0.080 | 3 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n099cadStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 10.5 +159Model 45.9% · Market 37.0%Edge +8.9% · Full Kelly 11.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +159Model 45.5% · Market 37.0%Edge +8.5% · Full Kelly 11.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+159 → +159Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66n099cadStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +152Model 44.9% · Market 38.0%Edge +6.9% · Full Kelly 8.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +159Model 39.9% · Market 37.0%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%+152 → +159Logit -0.042 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n71617bStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.2% · Market 48.1%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.4% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.4%-103 → +105Logit -0.057 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n71617bStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers -142Model 56.8% · Market 56.2%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago White Sox +119Model 44.5% · Market 43.8%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +119 | 3 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat. This chart begins on Aug 15, the first settled paper bet in the retained read model; it does not imply that earlier games were replayed.
- Current bankroll
- $9,679
- Cumulative
- -3.2%
- Best day
- -3.2%
- Worst day
- -3.2%
- Settled bets
- 2
Cumulative bankroll return
Daily bankroll return
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
-$319 · -3.2%
- Bets
- 2
- Record
- 0-2
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 1.6%
Full Kelly benchmark $8,617 · tracked -$321 on $321 settled paper stake · -100.0% ROI
-$319 · -3.2%
- Bets
- 2
- Record
- 0-2
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 1.6%
Full Kelly benchmark $8,617 · tracked -$321 on $321 settled paper stake · -100.0% ROI
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 15
- Both cleared
- 1
- Rate
- 6.7%