+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
70 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
29 games unified from 154 stored model snapshots on 2026-08-14.
Games29
Settled1
First edge+5.1%
Pregame edge+4.9%
Average CLV-0.3%
Totals CLV-0.8%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n707c30Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +119Model 47.4% · Market 43.8%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +129Model 48.2% · Market 41.9%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 8.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%+119 → +129Logit -0.077 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n707c30Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Francisco Giants -131Model 58.6% · Market 54.2%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants -137Model 57.7% · Market 55.3%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.1%-131 → -137Logit 0.043 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n1b934bStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +119Model 47.6% · Market 43.8%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +129Model 47.9% · Market 41.9%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 7.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%+119 → +129Logit -0.077 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n1b934bStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMilwaukee Brewers +159Model 41.5% · Market 37.4%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMilwaukee Brewers +152Model 41.3% · Market 38.0%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.6%+159 → +152Logit 0.027 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Athleticsevt_129ymh66na09758Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -107Model 52.7% · Market 50.0%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -116Model 52.0% · Market 51.4%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.4%-107 → -116Logit 0.057 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Athleticsevt_129ymh66na09758Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassTexas Rangers -121Model 54.9% · Market 52.4%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTexas Rangers -112Model 54.0% · Market 50.5%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.8%-121 → -112Logit -0.074 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n939b53Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +124Model 46.8% · Market 42.8%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +140Model 47.7% · Market 39.9%Edge +7.8% · Full Kelly 10.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%+124 → +140Logit -0.118 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66n939b53Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels -112Model 53.9% · Market 50.5%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassLos Angeles Angels -107Model 54.6% · Market 49.5%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%-112 → -107Logit -0.044 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n1f50eaStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSeattle Mariners +105Model 48.0% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSeattle Mariners +105Model 49.4% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+105 → +105Logit 0.000 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Seattle Mariners at Houston Astrosevt_129ymh66n1f50eaStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 48.5% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.1% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+105 → +105Logit 0.000 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n30774aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassArizona Diamondbacks +166Model 46.0% · Market 35.8%Edge +10.2% · Full Kelly 13.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassArizona Diamondbacks +173Model 43.2% · Market 35.2%Edge +8.0% · Full Kelly 10.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.6%+166 → +173Logit -0.026 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Bravesevt_129ymh66n30774aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 48.4% · Market 34.8%Edge +13.6% · Full Kelly 18.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 48.6% · Market 35.2%Edge +13.5% · Full Kelly 19.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.4%+173 → +173Logit 0.017 | 6 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n35a76bStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +166Model 47.2% · Market 35.8%Edge +11.4% · Full Kelly 15.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +181Model 47.5% · Market 34.2%Edge +13.4% · Full Kelly 18.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.6%+166 → +181Logit -0.070 | 5 decision snapshots |
| New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n35a76bStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassToronto Blue Jays +129Model 48.6% · Market 41.9%Edge +6.7% · Full Kelly 8.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassToronto Blue Jays +124Model 49.2% · Market 42.8%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 8.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+129 → +124Logit 0.038 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n32091aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 52.3% · Market 49.5%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 51.9% · Market 49.5%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-107 → -107Logit 0.000 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Washington Nationals at New York Metsevt_129ymh66n32091aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals -103Model 51.2% · Market 48.6%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals +101Model 48.5% · Market 47.6%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.0%-103 → +101Logit -0.039 | 6 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n573f73Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Diego Padres +109Model 47.0% · Market 45.8%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Diego Padres +101Model 50.0% · Market 47.6%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.9%+109 → +101Logit 0.074 | 6 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n573f73Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +140Model 47.9% · Market 39.9%Edge +8.0% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +152Model 48.0% · Market 38.0%Edge +10.0% · Full Kelly 13.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%+140 → +152Logit -0.080 | 5 decision snapshots |
| San Diego Padres at Cleveland Guardiansevt_129ymh66n573f73Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Paper Kelly tracked | Won7-5Paper stake $192 · P/L $238 | Paper betOver 7.5 +124Model 54.0% · Market 43.7%Edge +10.4% · Full Kelly 17.0%Policy Kelly 1.9% · $192 | Paper betOver 7.5 +124Model 54.0% · Market 43.7%Edge +10.4% · Full Kelly 17.0%Policy Kelly 1.9% · $191 | +0.0%+124 → +124Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66naf96a7Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 47.6% · Market 47.2%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 47.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.6%-103 → +105Logit -0.022 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Raysevt_129ymh66naf96a7Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBaltimore Orioles +140Model 42.6% · Market 39.6%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBaltimore Orioles +140Model 41.4% · Market 39.9%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.4%+140 → +140Logit 0.015 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n158c9eStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 49.4% · Market 44.7%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 5.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.0% · Market 45.8%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.1%+114 → +109Logit 0.043 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Boston Red Sox at Pittsburgh Piratesevt_129ymh66n158c9eStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassPittsburgh Pirates +119Model 51.1% · Market 43.8%Edge +7.3% · Full Kelly 10.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassPittsburgh Pirates +101Model 48.4% · Market 47.6%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.9%+119 → +101Logit 0.155 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb74b67Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +129Model 46.7% · Market 41.9%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +146Model 46.7% · Market 39.0%Edge +7.7% · Full Kelly 10.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%+129 → +146Logit -0.120 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb74b67Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago White Sox +129Model 45.2% · Market 41.9%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers -137Model 56.3% · Market 55.3%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -137 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66ne3ad8bStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 50.6% · Market 47.6%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.7% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 1.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+101 → +105Logit -0.038 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Redsevt_129ymh66ne3ad8bStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds -116Model 51.9% · Market 51.4%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMiami Marlins -103Model 48.6% · Market 48.6%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → -103 | 6 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nb507d2Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +152Model 45.9% · Market 37.7%Edge +8.2% · Full Kelly 10.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +159Model 42.3% · Market 37.0%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.6%+152 → +159Logit -0.027 | 6 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubsevt_129ymh66nb507d2Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 47.3% · Market 34.8%Edge +12.4% · Full Kelly 16.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 47.0% · Market 35.2%Edge +11.8% · Full Kelly 16.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.4%+173 → +173Logit 0.015 | 5 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat. This chart begins on Aug 14, the first settled paper bet in the retained read model; it does not imply that earlier games were replayed.
- Current bankroll
- $10,238
- Cumulative
- +2.4%
- Best day
- +2.4%
- Worst day
- +2.4%
- Settled bets
- 1
Cumulative bankroll return
Daily bankroll return
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$238 · +2.4%
- Bets
- 1
- Record
- 1-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 1.9%
Full Kelly benchmark $12,103 · tracked $238 on $192 settled paper stake · +124.0% ROI
+$237 · +2.4%
- Bets
- 1
- Record
- 1-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 1.9%
Full Kelly benchmark $12,103 · tracked $237 on $191 settled paper stake · +124.0% ROI
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 14
- Both cleared
- 4
- Rate
- 28.6%