Baseball

Track record

Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.

Retained daily results

71 dates available

Jul 24, 2026Oct 2, 2026

Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.

Game history

First look vs. latest pregame

25 games unified from 73 stored model snapshots on 2026-08-13.

Games25
Settled6
First edge+8.2%
Pregame edge+7.8%
Average CLV-0.0%
Totals CLV+0.0%
GameMarketResultFirst recommendationLatest pregameCLVModel movement
Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n9f8f69Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 8.5 -116Model 52.4% · Market 51.4%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +105Model 48.4% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed-116 → +1052 decision snapshots
Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_129ymh66n9f8f69Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassMilwaukee Brewers +124Model 44.2% · Market 42.8%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassMilwaukee Brewers +124Model 44.8% · Market 42.8%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+124 → +124Logit 0.0004 decision snapshots
Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nb74b2bStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassLos Angeles Angels +129Model 46.6% · Market 41.4%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassTexas Rangers -148Model 57.3% · Market 57.2%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0Selection / line changed+129 → -1484 decision snapshots
Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angelsevt_129ymh66nb74b2bStarts TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 3.5 +756Model 42.4% · Market 11.3%Edge +31.1% · Full Kelly 34.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 41.1% · Market 15.3%Edge +25.7% · Full Kelly 29.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+4.0%+756 → +529Logit 0.3512 decision snapshots
Philadelphia Phillies at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n24495bStarts TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 4.5 +574Model 44.7% · Market 14.2%Edge +30.5% · Full Kelly 35.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 4.5 +625Model 43.9% · Market 13.5%Edge +30.4% · Full Kelly 34.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-0.7%+574 → +625Logit -0.0633 decision snapshots
Philadelphia Phillies at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66n24495bStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassPhiladelphia Phillies -107Model 50.1% · Market 49.5%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassPhiladelphia Phillies -107Model 53.0% · Market 49.5%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%-107 → -107Logit 0.0004 decision snapshots
Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66ne6c386Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Paper Kelly trackedLost0-7Paper stake $127 · P/L -$127Paper betOver 9.5 +134Model 53.9% · Market 41.8%Edge +12.1% · Full Kelly 19.5%Policy Kelly 1.3% · $127Paper betOver 9.5 +134Model 53.9% · Market 41.8%Edge +12.1% · Full Kelly 19.5%Policy Kelly 0.9% · $88+0.0%+134 → +134Logit 0.0002 decision snapshots
Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66ne6c386Starts TotalOpening line 11.5Paper Kelly trackedLost0-7Paper stake $58 · P/L -$58Paper betOver 11.5 +252Model 37.8% · Market 27.4%Edge +10.4% · Full Kelly 13.1%Policy Kelly 0.6% · $58Paper betOver 11.5 +252Model 37.8% · Market 27.4%Edge +10.4% · Full Kelly 13.1%Policy Kelly 0.6% · $58+0.0%+252 → +252Logit 0.0002 decision snapshots
Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66ne6c386Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassWashington Nationals +114Model 51.3% · Market 44.3%Edge +7.0% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassWashington Nationals +124Model 43.9% · Market 42.8%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.5%+114 → +124Logit -0.0634 decision snapshots
Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66ne6c386Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassOver 10.5 +173Model 46.0% · Market 35.2%Edge +10.8% · Full Kelly 14.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 10.5 +173Model 46.0% · Market 35.2%Edge +10.8% · Full Kelly 14.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+173 → +173Logit 0.0002 decision snapshots
Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66ne6c386Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Paper Kelly trackedLost0-7Paper stake $85 · P/L -$85Paper betOver 7.5 -155Model 70.3% · Market 59.7%Edge +10.6% · Full Kelly 24.2%Policy Kelly 0.9% · $85Paper betOver 7.5 -155Model 70.3% · Market 59.7%Edge +10.6% · Full Kelly 24.2%Policy Kelly 0.3% · $31+0.0%-155 → -155Logit 0.0002 decision snapshots
Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66ne6c386Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassUnder 8.5 -103Model 50.4% · Market 48.1%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 49.0% · Market 48.6%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.5%-103 → -103Logit 0.0193 decision snapshots
Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66nf70323Starts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassOver 8.5 +114Model 48.7% · Market 44.7%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +119Model 49.4% · Market 43.8%Edge +5.6% · Full Kelly 6.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-0.9%+114 → +119Logit -0.0383 decision snapshots
Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66nf70323Starts TotalOpening line 7.5Paper Kelly trackedLost7-0Paper stake $200 · P/L -$200Paper betOver 7.5 -107Model 61.6% · Market 50.5%Edge +11.1% · Full Kelly 20.4%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200Paper betOver 7.5 -107Model 61.6% · Market 50.5%Edge +11.1% · Full Kelly 20.4%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200+0.0%-107 → -107Logit 0.0002 decision snapshots
Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66nf70323Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassToronto Blue Jays +134Model 49.1% · Market 40.5%Edge +8.6% · Full Kelly 11.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassToronto Blue Jays +124Model 46.7% · Market 42.8%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 3.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+2.3%+134 → +124Logit 0.0934 decision snapshots
Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66nf70323Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Paper Kelly trackedLost7-0Paper stake $142 · P/L -$142Paper betOver 9.5 +173Model 47.3% · Market 35.5%Edge +11.8% · Full Kelly 16.9%Policy Kelly 1.4% · $142Paper betOver 9.5 +180Model 47.3% · Market 35.0%Edge +12.3% · Full Kelly 18.0%Policy Kelly 1.0% · $101-0.5%+173 → +180Logit -0.0202 decision snapshots
Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66nf70323Starts TotalOpening line 10.5Paper Kelly trackedLost7-0Paper stake $30 · P/L -$30Paper betOver 10.5 +240Model 38.5% · Market 28.3%Edge +10.2% · Full Kelly 12.9%Policy Kelly 0.3% · $30PassOver 10.5 +240Model 38.5% · Market 28.3%Edge +10.2% · Full Kelly 12.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+240 → +240Logit 0.0002 decision snapshots
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n01edf0Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassCincinnati Reds +114Model 45.0% · Market 44.7%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassCincinnati Reds +114Model 46.3% · Market 44.7%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+114 → +114Logit 0.0004 decision snapshots
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n01edf0Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassOver 9.5 +152Model 47.7% · Market 38.0%Edge +9.6% · Full Kelly 13.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +152Model 47.6% · Market 38.0%Edge +9.6% · Full Kelly 13.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+152 → +152Logit 0.0003 decision snapshots
Seattle Mariners at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n08fe8cStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassSeattle Mariners +119Model 45.3% · Market 43.4%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassSeattle Mariners +134Model 45.5% · Market 40.5%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-2.8%+119 → +134Logit -0.1154 decision snapshots
Seattle Mariners at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n08fe8cStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassOver 8.5 +124Model 46.9% · Market 42.4%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +129Model 47.6% · Market 41.9%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 7.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-0.5%+124 → +129Logit -0.0223 decision snapshots
Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n8befdaStarts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassMiami Marlins +101Model 51.4% · Market 47.2%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassMiami Marlins +105Model 51.9% · Market 46.7%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-0.5%+101 → +105Logit -0.0203 decision snapshots
Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n8befdaStarts TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassOver 8.5 +109Model 47.1% · Market 45.8%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 8.5 +109Model 47.4% · Market 45.8%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+0.0%+109 → +109Logit 0.0003 decision snapshots
Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66ne4c496Starts TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassOver 9.5 +159Model 46.1% · Market 36.7%Edge +9.4% · Full Kelly 12.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassOver 9.5 +173Model 46.9% · Market 35.2%Edge +11.7% · Full Kelly 16.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0-1.5%+159 → +173Logit -0.0673 decision snapshots
Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66ne4c496Starts MoneylineDecision tracked · no betPendingAwaiting finalPassDetroit Tigers +105Model 52.6% · Market 46.7%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 7.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0PassDetroit Tigers -103Model 50.6% · Market 48.6%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0+1.9%+105 → -103Logit 0.0773 decision snapshots
Paper portfolio & staking results

Paper Bankroll

Daily and cumulative return

The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat. This chart begins on Aug 13, the first settled paper bet in the retained read model; it does not imply that earlier games were replayed.

Current bankroll
$9,358
Cumulative
-6.4%
Best day
-6.4%
Worst day
-6.4%
Settled bets
6

Cumulative bankroll return

+0.8%-1.2%-3.2%-5.2%-7.2%Aug 13Aug 19Aug 26

Daily bankroll return

+6.4%-6.4%Aug 13Aug 19Aug 26

Kelly Performance

Recommended Kelly bets by market

This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.

Moneyline · opening$10,000

+$0 · +0.0%

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Avg. policy Kelly
-

Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake

Moneyline · pregame$10,000

+$0 · +0.0%

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Avg. policy Kelly
-

Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake

Totals · opening$9,374

-$626 · -6.3%

Bets
6
Record
0-6
Avg. policy Kelly
1.1%

Full Kelly benchmark $3,055 · tracked -$642 on $642 settled paper stake · -100.0% ROI

Totals · pregame$9,529

-$471 · -4.7%

Bets
5
Record
0-5
Avg. policy Kelly
1.0%

Full Kelly benchmark $3,458 · tracked -$479 on $479 settled paper stake · -100.0% ROI

Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure

This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.

Both markets priced
9
Both cleared
0
Rate
0.0%