Baseball · Models
Totals
The run-distribution head used to price over, under, and push at each offered total.
What it predicts
Home runs, away runs, and total probabilities
Separate home- and away-run estimators feed a calibrated discrete joint score distribution with ties removed. That distribution prices over, under, and push for the offered line.
Recorded component metadata
Some component metadata is absent from the published evidence. The verified system identifiers are on the overview; missing fields are not inferred.
- Real-money authorized
- No
Evaluation
Forecast quality against the market
Historical out-of-sample evidence for the historical totals cohort (retrosheet-game-date-bounded-fielding-2026-v16.0.0). Brier and log loss are forecast-error scores; lower is better for both.
- Covered games
- 11,196
- Model Brier
- 0.2503
- Market Brier
- 0.2496
- Model log loss
- 0.6937
- Market log loss
- 0.6924
Main totals and alternate lines
Main-total forecast quality and alternate-line calibration have separate evidence. An alternate quote is not an independent game, and a displayed ladder does not establish a validated betting model.
Review main-total scores and the alternate-line calibration gate
Per-game run contributions and global totals importance are not published yet. Inspect the game notebook for recorded run estimates and available lines.