Baseball · Models
Forecast components and the active moneyline recommendation policy.
TabPFN uses a fixed pretrained transformer and a fitted historical context for each information stage. Context repairs can change predictions without changing the pretrained weights or the display version.
Confirmed-lineup recommendations use 50% Tree + 50% TabPFN served probabilities, with no additional calibration. The minimum edge is 2 percentage points above the offered price’s break-even probability. Both arms are required. Earlier stages retain comparison forecasts only.
This is an owner-authorized policy choice. Forward superiority over either component or the market has not been established.
Production system
The system release binds Tree, TabPFN contexts, feature contracts, calibration and blend policy together. A Tree version such as v16 does not identify the whole system.
50/50 Tree + TabPFN drives confirmed-lineup recommendations at a 2 percentage point edge. Input and lineup gates still apply; publishing a component does not establish better accuracy.
Bundle 05ece7ec34f7 · assembled
| TabPFN stage | Features | Context |
|---|---|---|
| schedule-only | 31 | fd643ec8e4b7 |
| probable-starter | 34 | b7f7bb4760fe |
| confirmed-lineup | 46 | 109dd90f0128 |
Release 1d4326b2c7165b4e36003962dce50dac46cf34354c9b295f2078299f188a0bb2
System 05ece7ec34f7dc11f45af5b10d83cf8c165cff1654a65b67f97cc0a48eb6cef6
blendPolicy: 10affafd4915006c0afc1b4d644eb50b84e593e0cd68beb4ac42fff576ad7f26
confirmed-lineup.context: 109dd90f01281b800ab0108364e2dc1513e9e7e9524eaf6a50f0b8f7c76a2437
confirmed-lineup.featureContract: 477eb047651be8a60f74b2b758cb5e74c02771409dada24c51f2b2a218edeb50
confirmed-lineup.fitManifest: 687b249fc91b53ff71be8a944792ac17f1e7b70b6e1aac230205aae1a6938341
confirmed-lineup.fitted: 2fe039938df5b214ae7f9c53fb1724c7a9b3a05dc2c171b342f04375668b8944
confirmed-lineup.weights: d0d865d54dfbc524f5703104be90620182dca7e5fb2c16de72e9959ea18f3988
probable-starter.context: b7f7bb4760fe84056ee6d0230ea47db9b2ea43313a732fc8b283ff4a940ff093
probable-starter.featureContract: 01141b9fb222578020f784c1ba3e54ff6e722fa762c3d500e9e09fd29eb3996d
probable-starter.fitManifest: 642c0725ed0ca752d2f1c3fae18dbbacf2cbce7dd3743edcb5bd6096b1cd3fac
probable-starter.fitted: f384ac897211ae0b80393882ee90267d362ab20d207e4682ce567b14e54cf86c
probable-starter.weights: d0d865d54dfbc524f5703104be90620182dca7e5fb2c16de72e9959ea18f3988
schedule-only.context: fd643ec8e4b78f06104c0d234cfd1613f3224adecc7f7b8878c7e556fe97a398
schedule-only.featureContract: f8ebba52270690d47fb8efe8fe18a34dea44690794d391aefb603f5640e10c4c
schedule-only.fitManifest: 122669e638460fd77577b732f1da64c16f4e2cf378c30aaa3c7dfd6fe394d6b9
schedule-only.fitted: 0fbfea789ef81e8d10d4380a97f76153c0f410abb57794b590794d57a37ef8b1
schedule-only.weights: d0d865d54dfbc524f5703104be90620182dca7e5fb2c16de72e9959ea18f3988
tabularLock: f19ec45f2c68f679496fe682af3d41f206efa214098b44a18498126fa12940e9
tabularScorer: cd34fd9803665c25e0256cd87ffbcf7d100bb7c40d377af0fc9972a647cbc42f
tree: 1be510e2c9ea60d52e4054ac88609b7c3aaf903f54d0d6d748d2eb410dcd584a
treeConfig: 6573f36789ab227a7289815ceaef97572fd5ec7e1d3fd33863811de51d4af55b
treeLock: c6df52880c6c7dd074c70bf14e5d1d95421beb35f5b1834431742a027b7628b2
treeScorer: c6d9a219e57dbe6576b2cbae250abb26c78e025b2a44f7a06525925040833dbd
| Family | Tree* | Totals* | schedule-only | probable-starter | confirmed-lineup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bullpenFatigue | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| bullpenRoles | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| fangraphsCurrentForm | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| fangraphsPriorForm | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| fangraphsProjections | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| historicalWeather | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| injuryAvailability | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| lineupRates | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| lineupState | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| lineupWar | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| managerRecord | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| managerScript | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| managerScriptHistoryFlags | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| officialBullpen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| officialPitchingRates | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| parkAdjustedLineup | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| parkFactors | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| parkOrientation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| pitchMixInteractions | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| pitchMixMatchupXwar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| pitchMixUsage | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| playerRecentWorkload | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| playoffLeverage | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| starterHandedness | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| starterRolling | 7 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| statcastBatters | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| statcastPitchers | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| teamRecord | 10 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| travelCircadian | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| umpireForm | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| venueSplit | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
*Tree and Totals counts are the code-published registry reference. TabPFN counts come from the verified active release contracts. Membership does not prove an input was available for a game.
Forecast collection can continue without explanations. Evidence must carry matching bundle, context, fitted-model and stage identifiers before it is shown as current.
These records are retained for reference and are not verified explanations of the active release.
Compact TabPFN · Per-game explanation
Positive values move the raw model score toward a home win; negative values move it toward an away win. They are model-score units, not probability points.
Evidence generated .
Tabular home-win probability 69.5%
Base -0.666 → home-class score -0.434