+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
70 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
8 games unified from 20 stored model snapshots on 2026-10-03.
Games8
Settled0
First edge+2.2%
Pregame edge+2.3%
Average CLV-0.3%
Totals CLV-0.5%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewersevt_12a95bbnf79a9a468f158Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Diego Padres +187Model 41.4% · Market 34.8%Edge +6.6% · Full Kelly 10.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Diego Padres +178Model 41.4% · Market 36.0%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 8.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.1%+187 → +178Logit 0.049 | 50 model points |
| San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewersevt_12a95bbnf79a9a468f158Starts | TotalOpening line 7Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7 -102Model 50.5% · Market 50.5%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7 -109Model 50.5% · Market 52.1%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.6%-102 → -109Logit 0.066 | 50 model points |
| New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Raysevt_12a95bbnfc6120869b543Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Yankees +116Model 46.7% · Market 46.3%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Yankees +116Model 45.8% · Market 46.3%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+116 → +116Logit 0.000 | 50 model points |
| New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Raysevt_12a95bbnfc6120869b543Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +109Model 49.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +119Model 49.1% · Market 45.7%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.2%+109 → +119Logit -0.088 | 50 model points |
| Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_12a95bbnff6de4e65ca7dStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAtlanta Braves +169Model 42.9% · Market 37.2%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 9.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAtlanta Braves +177Model 42.9% · Market 36.1%Edge +6.8% · Full Kelly 10.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%+169 → +177Logit -0.046 | 50 model points |
| Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgersevt_12a95bbnff6de4e65ca7dStarts | TotalOpening line 8Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8 -110Model 51.6% · Market 52.4%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8 -108Model 51.3% · Market 51.9%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%-110 → -108Logit -0.018 | 50 model points |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_12a95bbnfc6c3a720428bStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +109Model 49.1% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +114Model 49.1% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%+109 → +114Logit -0.045 | 2 model points |
| Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardiansevt_12a95bbnfc6c3a720428bStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago White Sox +130Model 46.3% · Market 43.5%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago White Sox +130Model 46.3% · Market 43.5%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+130 → +130Logit 0.000 | 50 model points |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
No settled paper bets are available yet. The trend begins after the first recommended stake is graded.
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 4
- Both cleared
- 0
- Rate
- 0.0%