+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
70 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
133 games unified from 331 stored model snapshots on 2026-09-26.
Games133
Settled106
First edge-0.4%
Pregame edge-1.6%
Average CLV-1.3%
Totals CLV-2.3%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n096578Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -121Model 50.7% · Market 54.8%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +109Model 50.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-121 → +109 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n096578Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels +166Model 42.2% · Market 37.6%Edge +4.6% · Full Kelly 7.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSeattle Mariners -161Model 60.2% · Market 61.7%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -161 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n096578Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-8 | PassUnder 6.5 +140Model 32.4% · Market 42.2%Edge -9.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +134Model 32.4% · Market 42.7%Edge -10.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.5%+140 → +134Logit 0.022 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n096578Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-8 | PassOver 5.5 -228Model 75.2% · Market 69.5%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 18.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +189Model 24.8% · Market 34.6%Edge -9.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n096578Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-8 | PassOver 9.5 +218Model 38.6% · Market 31.4%Edge +7.1% · Full Kelly 10.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -263Model 61.4% · Market 72.5%Edge -11.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n096578Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-8 | PassUnder 4.5 +331Model 15.0% · Market 23.2%Edge -8.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -430Model 85.0% · Market 81.1%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 20.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n096578Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-8 | PassUnder 12.5 -788Model 80.7% · Market 88.7%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +625Model 19.3% · Market 13.8%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n096578Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-8 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 48.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +152Model 48.5% · Market 40.2%Edge +8.4% · Full Kelly 14.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -7.7%+109 → +152Logit -0.312 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n096578Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-8 | PassOver 3.5 -719Model 90.1% · Market 87.8%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 19.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 9.9% · Market 15.9%Edge -6.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n096578Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-8 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 75.7% · Market 84.9%Edge -9.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 24.3% · Market 18.0%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 7.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n096578Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-8 | PassOver 10.5 +296Model 32.0% · Market 25.3%Edge +6.7% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -360Model 68.0% · Market 78.3%Edge -10.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc149d8Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +114Model 48.1% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 +101Model 52.1% · Market 49.8%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → +101 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc149d8Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAthletics +129Model 47.3% · Market 43.7%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +140Model 45.7% · Market 41.7%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%+129 → +140Logit -0.082 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc149d8Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost13-2 | PassOver 4.5 -1236Model 84.7% · Market 92.5%Edge -7.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +945Model 15.3% · Market 9.6%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +945 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc149d8Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost13-2 | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.3% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +158Model 51.9% · Market 39.2%Edge +12.7% · Full Kelly 21.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → +158 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc149d8Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost13-2 | PassOver 6.5 -404Model 67.1% · Market 80.2%Edge -13.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +331Model 32.9% · Market 23.2%Edge +9.7% · Full Kelly 12.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc149d8Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost13-2 | PassOver 12.5 +218Model 19.0% · Market 31.4%Edge -12.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -263Model 81.0% · Market 72.5%Edge +8.6% · Full Kelly 31.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc149d8Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost13-2 | PassOver 3.5 -2042Model 89.9% · Market 95.3%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1464Model 10.1% · Market 6.4%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-2042 → +1464 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc149d8Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won13-2 | PassUnder 7.5 +208Model 44.1% · Market 32.6%Edge +11.6% · Full Kelly 17.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -229Model 55.9% · Market 70.6%Edge -14.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc149d8Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost13-2 | PassOver 10.5 +124Model 31.5% · Market 45.2%Edge -13.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -137Model 68.5% · Market 58.2%Edge +10.2% · Full Kelly 25.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+124 → -137 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc149d8Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won13-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -208Model 76.1% · Market 67.5%Edge +8.5% · Full Kelly 26.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +173Model 23.9% · Market 36.6%Edge -12.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nc149d8Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won13-2 | PassUnder 5.5 +490Model 25.2% · Market 16.9%Edge +8.2% · Full Kelly 9.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -609Model 74.8% · Market 85.9%Edge -11.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nfd0d98Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -112Model 50.9% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 50.6% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.0%-112 → +109Logit -0.199 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nfd0d98Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Diego Padres -121Model 56.4% · Market 54.8%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassArizona Diamondbacks +109Model 49.7% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-121 → +109 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nfd0d98Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-10 | PassOver 8.5 +124Model 42.0% · Market 45.2%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +119Model 41.8% · Market 45.7%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.5%+124 → +119Logit 0.021 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nfd0d98Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-10 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 70.2% · Market 73.4%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 29.8% · Market 30.4%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nfd0d98Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-10 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 12.5% · Market 12.7%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 87.5% · Market 89.7%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nfd0d98Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-10 | PassOver 6.5 -183Model 61.7% · Market 65.1%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +165Model 38.3% · Market 38.2%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nfd0d98Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-10 | PassUnder 9.5 -228Model 67.7% · Market 69.5%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +189Model 32.3% · Market 34.6%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nfd0d98Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-10 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 26.0% · Market 28.4%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 74.0% · Market 75.4%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nfd0d98Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-10 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 80.9% · Market 82.1%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 19.1% · Market 21.1%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66nfd0d98Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-10 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 81.3% · Market 84.0%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 18.7% · Market 19.0%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66na854e9Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago Cubs -103Model 49.5% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago Cubs -103Model 49.5% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-103 → -103Logit 0.000 | 1 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66ne4d56aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +105Model 48.2% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +109Model 48.9% · Market 47.9%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+105 → +109Logit -0.037 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66ne4d56aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassPhiladelphia Phillies -112Model 50.6% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTampa Bay Rays +101Model 51.5% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → +101 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66ne4d56aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost12-1 | PassOver 8.5 +180Model 42.6% · Market 36.2%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -200Model 57.4% · Market 67.1%Edge -9.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+180 → -200 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66ne4d56aStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost12-1 | PassOver 10.5 +373Model 26.5% · Market 21.1%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 6.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -458Model 73.5% · Market 82.1%Edge -8.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66ne4d56aStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost12-1 | PassOver 9.5 +280Model 32.9% · Market 26.3%Edge +6.5% · Full Kelly 8.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -340Model 67.1% · Market 77.3%Edge -10.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66ne4d56aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost12-1 | PassOver 7.5 +134Model 50.5% · Market 43.2%Edge +7.3% · Full Kelly 13.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -148Model 49.5% · Market 60.2%Edge -10.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66ne4d56aStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost12-1 | PassOver 11.5 +574Model 19.6% · Market 14.8%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -719Model 80.4% · Market 87.8%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66ne4d56aStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost12-1 | PassOver 5.5 -191Model 70.7% · Market 65.6%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 14.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +159Model 29.3% · Market 38.6%Edge -9.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-191 → +159 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66ne4d56aStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost12-1 | PassOver 3.5 -609Model 87.7% · Market 85.9%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 12.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +490Model 12.3% · Market 16.9%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66ne4d56aStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost12-1 | PassOver 4.5 -360Model 81.7% · Market 78.3%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 15.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +296Model 18.3% · Market 25.3%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n5dcb51Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +152Model 40.0% · Market 39.7%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMilwaukee Brewers -161Model 65.0% · Market 61.7%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -161 | 4 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n5dcb51Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -116Model 49.9% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.0%-116 → -103Logit -0.119 | 3 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n5dcb51Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 6.5 +158Model 31.6% · Market 39.7%Edge -8.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -168Model 68.4% · Market 63.2%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 15.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n5dcb51Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 14.5% · Market 20.1%Edge -5.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -489Model 85.5% · Market 83.0%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 14.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n5dcb51Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 9.5 +189Model 39.6% · Market 34.6%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 7.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -239Model 60.4% · Market 70.5%Edge -10.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n5dcb51Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 9.5% · Market 13.8%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 90.5% · Market 88.7%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 15.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n5dcb51Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 8.5 +134Model 49.6% · Market 43.2%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 11.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -148Model 50.4% · Market 60.2%Edge -9.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n5dcb51Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 10.5 +266Model 33.0% · Market 27.3%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 7.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -322Model 67.0% · Market 76.3%Edge -9.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n5dcb51Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 74.7% · Market 82.1%Edge -7.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 25.3% · Market 21.1%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n5dcb51Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 5.5 -263Model 76.0% · Market 72.5%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 12.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +218Model 24.0% · Market 31.4%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6f04fdStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 49.4% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.6% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%-103 → +105Logit -0.078 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6f04fdStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassColorado Rockies +159Model 39.3% · Market 38.6%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassColorado Rockies +208Model 36.7% · Market 32.5%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 6.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -6.1%+159 → +208Logit -0.269 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6f04fdStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 58.6% · Market 64.7%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 41.4% · Market 39.2%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6f04fdStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-6 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 58.9% · Market 58.2%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -137 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6f04fdStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-6 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 34.8% · Market 31.4%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -263Model 65.2% · Market 72.5%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6f04fdStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-6 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 86.4% · Market 86.8%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 13.6% · Market 15.9%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6f04fdStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-6 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 77.2% · Market 76.3%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 22.8% · Market 27.3%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6f04fdStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 30.1% · Market 35.6%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 69.9% · Market 68.6%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6f04fdStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 73.1% · Market 79.2%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 26.9% · Market 24.2%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6f04fdStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-6 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 8.9% · Market 10.6%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 91.1% · Market 91.6%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n6f04fdStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-6 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 78.4% · Market 83.0%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 21.6% · Market 20.1%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n782f37Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 50.1% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 50.6% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.0%-103 → +105Logit -0.078 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n782f37Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassKansas City Royals -107Model 49.7% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCleveland Guardians -112Model 53.7% · Market 52.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -112 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n782f37Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost11-5 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 65.5% · Market 57.3%Edge +8.3% · Full Kelly 20.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 34.5% · Market 45.7%Edge -11.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n782f37Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost11-5 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 27.7% · Market 20.1%Edge +7.7% · Full Kelly 9.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 72.3% · Market 83.0%Edge -10.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n782f37Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-5 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 58.1% · Market 71.5%Edge -13.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 41.9% · Market 32.5%Edge +9.4% · Full Kelly 13.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n782f37Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost11-5 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 93.2% · Market 91.6%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 19.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 6.8% · Market 10.6%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n782f37Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 10.6% · Market 15.9%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 89.4% · Market 86.8%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 19.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n782f37Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost11-5 | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 33.5% · Market 25.3%Edge +8.2% · Full Kelly 11.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 66.5% · Market 78.3%Edge -11.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n782f37Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost11-5 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 75.4% · Market 69.5%Edge +5.9% · Full Kelly 19.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 24.6% · Market 34.6%Edge -10.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n782f37Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-5 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 18.3% · Market 26.3%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 81.7% · Market 77.3%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 19.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n782f37Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost11-5 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 48.6% · Market 39.2%Edge +9.4% · Full Kelly 16.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 51.4% · Market 64.2%Edge -12.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4b2389Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 51.0% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.1% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → +101 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4b2389Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMiami Marlins +109Model 50.8% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 5.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAtlanta Braves -116Model 51.5% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+109 → -116 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4b2389Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-3 | PassOver 12.5 +351Model 18.5% · Market 22.2%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 81.5% · Market 82.1%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4b2389Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-3 | PassOver 7.5 -142Model 55.2% · Market 59.7%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +129Model 44.8% · Market 43.7%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +129 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4b2389Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-3 | PassUnder 9.5 -161Model 62.5% · Market 62.2%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +146Model 37.5% · Market 41.2%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4b2389Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-3 | PassOver 4.5 -719Model 84.3% · Market 87.8%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 15.7% · Market 14.8%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4b2389Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-3 | PassUnder 6.5 +208Model 33.5% · Market 32.5%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -251Model 66.5% · Market 71.5%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4b2389Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won8-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -228Model 69.1% · Market 69.5%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +181Model 30.9% · Market 35.6%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4b2389Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-3 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 89.6% · Market 92.5%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 10.4% · Market 10.6%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1236 → +841 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4b2389Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-3 | PassOver 5.5 -360Model 74.3% · Market 78.3%Edge -4.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 25.7% · Market 26.3%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n4b2389Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost8-3 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 76.6% · Market 75.4%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 4.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 23.4% · Market 28.4%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nbddc05Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMinnesota Twins -103Model 50.4% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTexas Rangers -126Model 54.6% · Market 55.8%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -126 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nbddc05Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.6% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.9% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+105 → +101Logit 0.039 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nbddc05Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 10.4% · Market 12.7%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 89.6% · Market 90.6%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nbddc05Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -200Model 62.4% · Market 67.1%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +180Model 37.6% · Market 36.2%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 2.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +180 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nbddc05Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.4% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +119Model 47.5% · Market 46.2%Edge +1.3% · Full Kelly 3.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.6%+105 → +119Logit -0.104 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nbddc05Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 74.3% · Market 74.4%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 25.7% · Market 29.4%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nbddc05Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 76.5% · Market 81.1%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 23.5% · Market 23.2%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nbddc05Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 81.4% · Market 84.9%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 18.6% · Market 19.0%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nbddc05Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 31.0% · Market 30.4%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 69.0% · Market 74.4%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nbddc05Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 33.5% · Market 37.6%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 66.5% · Market 66.6%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66nbddc05Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 15.7% · Market 18.0%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 84.3% · Market 85.9%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n94f525Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals +119Model 54.5% · Market 45.7%Edge +8.8% · Full Kelly 16.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals -107Model 55.4% · Market 51.7%Edge +3.7% · Full Kelly 7.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +6.0%+119 → -107Logit 0.242 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n94f525Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-1 | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 47.1% · Market 49.8%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%-107 → +101Logit -0.078 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66ndb7ec4Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 +105Model 50.2% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +109Model 50.1% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+105 → +109Logit -0.037 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66ndb7ec4Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Francisco Giants +296Model 43.6% · Market 25.3%Edge +18.4% · Full Kelly 24.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants +229Model 36.8% · Market 30.4%Edge +6.4% · Full Kelly 9.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +5.1%+296 → +229Logit 0.257 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66ndb7ec4Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassOver 8.5 +158Model 50.8% · Market 39.7%Edge +11.1% · Full Kelly 19.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -175Model 52.6% · Market 64.2%Edge -11.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66ndb7ec4Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassOver 11.5 +425Model 26.4% · Market 19.0%Edge +7.3% · Full Kelly 9.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 73.6% · Market 84.9%Edge -11.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66ndb7ec4Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassUnder 5.5 +189Model 23.5% · Market 34.6%Edge -11.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -228Model 76.5% · Market 69.5%Edge +7.0% · Full Kelly 23.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66ndb7ec4Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassOver 9.5 +218Model 40.8% · Market 31.4%Edge +9.4% · Full Kelly 13.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -263Model 59.2% · Market 72.5%Edge -13.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66ndb7ec4Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -360Model 65.8% · Market 78.3%Edge -12.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +296Model 34.2% · Market 25.3%Edge +8.9% · Full Kelly 11.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66ndb7ec4Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-3 | PassOver 3.5 -719Model 90.7% · Market 87.8%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 23.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 9.3% · Market 15.9%Edge -6.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66ndb7ec4Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassUnder 6.5 +129Model 30.8% · Market 44.2%Edge -13.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -142Model 69.2% · Market 59.2%Edge +10.1% · Full Kelly 25.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -142 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66ndb7ec4Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +351Model 14.1% · Market 22.2%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -458Model 85.9% · Market 82.1%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 21.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n685943Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.5% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.5% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+105 → +101Logit 0.039 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n685943Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassToronto Blue Jays -121Model 56.5% · Market 54.8%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCincinnati Reds +134Model 40.9% · Market 42.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-121 → +134 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n685943Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 40.1% · Market 37.6%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 59.9% · Market 64.2%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n685943Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 20.5% · Market 20.1%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 79.5% · Market 84.0%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n685943Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 14.2% · Market 16.9%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 85.8% · Market 86.8%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n685943Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 25.6% · Market 25.3%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 74.4% · Market 78.3%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n685943Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 23.7% · Market 28.4%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 76.3% · Market 75.4%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n685943Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-1 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 90.7% · Market 91.6%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 9.3% · Market 11.7%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n685943Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassUnder 7.5 -112Model 49.5% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 42.3% · Market 45.2%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -7.7%-112 → +124Logit -0.308 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n685943Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-1 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 31.2% · Market 35.6%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 68.8% · Market 68.6%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66n685943Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 33.4% · Market 32.5%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 66.6% · Market 71.5%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb23c6fStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -116Model 51.0% · Market 53.7%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +114Model 51.2% · Market 46.7%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 8.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -7.0%-116 → +114Logit -0.279 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb23c6fStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers +109Model 56.2% · Market 47.9%Edge +8.3% · Full Kelly 16.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers -121Model 52.9% · Market 54.8%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +6.9%+109 → -121Logit 0.277 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb23c6fStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 3.5 -1428Model 88.8% · Market 93.5%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1074Model 11.2% · Market 8.5%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 3.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1428 → +1074 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb23c6fStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 4.5 -788Model 83.1% · Market 88.7%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +625Model 16.9% · Market 13.8%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb23c6fStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 9.5 -137Model 64.9% · Market 58.7%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 16.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +124Model 35.1% · Market 44.6%Edge -9.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb23c6fStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 28.7% · Market 36.6%Edge -7.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -208Model 71.3% · Market 67.5%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 11.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb23c6fStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassOver 5.5 -404Model 72.6% · Market 80.2%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +331Model 27.4% · Market 23.2%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb23c6fStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 12.5 -381Model 83.3% · Market 79.2%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 19.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +313Model 16.7% · Market 24.2%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb23c6fStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-4 | PassUnder 6.5 +240Model 35.5% · Market 29.4%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 8.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -290Model 64.5% · Market 74.4%Edge -9.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb23c6fStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 7.5 +158Model 47.1% · Market 39.7%Edge +7.4% · Full Kelly 13.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -175Model 52.9% · Market 63.6%Edge -10.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+158 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nb23c6fStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-4 | PassUnder 11.5 -290Model 78.6% · Market 74.4%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 16.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +240Model 21.4% · Market 29.4%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n94f525Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 10.5 +197Model 46.7% · Market 33.7%Edge +13.0% · Full Kelly 19.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +197Model 47.5% · Market 33.7%Edge +13.8% · Full Kelly 20.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+197 → +197Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66n94f525Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-1 | PassOver 9.5 +152Model 37.2% · Market 39.7%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 62.8% · Market 62.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -168 | 2 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
No settled paper bets are available yet. The trend begins after the first recommended stake is graded.
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 13
- Both cleared
- 0
- Rate
- 0.0%