+$422 · +4.2%
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 2-1
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 1.7%
Full Kelly benchmark $11,733 · tracked $422 on $495 settled paper stake · +85.1% ROI
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
70 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
146 games unified from 422 stored model snapshots on 2026-09-25.
Games146
Settled117
First edge-1.8%
Pregame edge-0.4%
Average CLV-1.2%
Totals CLV-2.2%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nedac73Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Francisco Giants +266Model 47.4% · Market 27.3%Edge +20.1% · Full Kelly 27.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants +266Model 36.2% · Market 27.3%Edge +8.9% · Full Kelly 12.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+266 → +266Logit 0.000 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nedac73Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 +101Model 49.6% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.9% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → +105 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nedac73Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-0 | PassUnder 5.5 +218Model 26.1% · Market 31.4%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 73.9% · Market 73.4%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nedac73Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-0 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 23.2% · Market 21.1%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 76.8% · Market 82.1%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nedac73Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-0 | PassUnder 10.5 -322Model 69.3% · Market 76.3%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +266Model 30.7% · Market 27.3%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nedac73Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-0 | PassUnder 8.5 -142Model 52.9% · Market 59.2%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +129Model 47.1% · Market 44.2%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +129 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nedac73Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-0 | PassOver 6.5 -175Model 66.1% · Market 63.6%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +158Model 33.9% · Market 39.7%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nedac73Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-0 | PassOver 3.5 -788Model 89.4% · Market 88.7%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 10.6% · Market 13.8%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nedac73Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-0 | PassOver 9.5 +189Model 37.2% · Market 34.6%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -228Model 62.8% · Market 69.5%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66nedac73Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-0 | PassUnder 4.5 +398Model 16.0% · Market 20.1%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -489Model 84.0% · Market 83.0%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nfc72d4Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +105Model 49.5% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +101Model 48.9% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+105 → +101Logit 0.039 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nfc72d4Starts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Lost7-5Paper stake $133 · P/L -$133 | Paper betSeattle Mariners -116Model 56.2% · Market 53.7%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 1.3% · $133 | Paper betSeattle Mariners -116Model 56.2% · Market 53.7%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 1.3% · $133 | +0.0%-116 → -116Logit 0.000 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nfc72d4Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +266Model 18.0% · Market 27.3%Edge -9.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -322Model 82.0% · Market 76.3%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 23.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nfc72d4Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-5 | PassOver 8.5 +189Model 43.0% · Market 34.6%Edge +8.4% · Full Kelly 12.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -228Model 57.0% · Market 69.5%Edge -12.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nfc72d4Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-5 | PassUnder 7.5 -161Model 49.1% · Market 62.2%Edge -13.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +146Model 50.9% · Market 41.2%Edge +9.8% · Full Kelly 17.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nfc72d4Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -788Model 80.1% · Market 88.7%Edge -8.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +625Model 19.9% · Market 13.8%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 7.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-788 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nfc72d4Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-5 | PassUnder 9.5 -381Model 66.8% · Market 79.2%Edge -12.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +296Model 33.2% · Market 25.3%Edge +8.0% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nfc72d4Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-5 | PassOver 5.5 -161Model 71.1% · Market 62.2%Edge +8.9% · Full Kelly 24.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +146Model 28.9% · Market 41.2%Edge -12.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nfc72d4Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-5 | PassOver 3.5 -525Model 88.0% · Market 84.0%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 24.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +425Model 12.0% · Market 19.0%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66nfc72d4Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-5 | PassUnder 10.5 -525Model 73.1% · Market 84.0%Edge -10.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +425Model 26.9% · Market 19.0%Edge +7.9% · Full Kelly 9.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n8ad8b0Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassArizona Diamondbacks +119Model 43.8% · Market 45.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Diego Padres -126Model 55.7% · Market 55.8%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -126 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n8ad8b0Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 +101Model 49.1% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 50.5% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 1.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → +101 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n8ad8b0Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-4 | PassUnder 5.5 +218Model 29.3% · Market 31.4%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -263Model 70.7% · Market 72.5%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -263 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n8ad8b0Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-4 | PassUnder 10.5 -322Model 73.5% · Market 76.3%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 26.5% · Market 28.4%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n8ad8b0Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-4 | PassUnder 9.5 -251Model 67.2% · Market 71.5%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +208Model 32.8% · Market 32.5%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n8ad8b0Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost11-4 | PassOver 6.5 -175Model 62.3% · Market 64.2%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +158Model 37.7% · Market 39.2%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n8ad8b0Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-4 | PassUnder 8.5 -142Model 57.5% · Market 59.2%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +129Model 42.5% · Market 44.2%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +129 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n8ad8b0Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-4 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 12.3% · Market 13.8%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 87.7% · Market 89.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+625 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n8ad8b0Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-4 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 80.5% · Market 82.1%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 19.5% · Market 21.1%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n8ad8b0Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won11-4 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 18.3% · Market 19.0%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 81.7% · Market 84.0%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nb7ca17Starts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Won5-6Paper stake $200 · P/L $318 | Paper betAthletics +159Model 43.7% · Market 38.6%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 8.3%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | Paper betAthletics +166Model 43.7% · Market 37.6%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 9.8%Policy Kelly 2.0% · $200 | -1.0%+159 → +166Logit -0.043 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nb7ca17Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 9.5 +114Model 48.4% · Market 46.7%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -112Model 51.6% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+114 → -112 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nb7ca17Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassOver 7.5 -183Model 59.1% · Market 64.7%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -191Model 59.1% · Market 66.1%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.4%-183 → -191Logit 0.063 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nb7ca17Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassUnder 8.5 -116Model 50.6% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +129Model 48.4% · Market 44.7%Edge +3.8% · Full Kelly 8.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -9.0%-116 → +129Logit -0.362 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nb7ca17Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 3.5 +1241Model 9.0% · Market 7.5%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1684Model 91.0% · Market 94.4%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+1241 → -1684 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nb7ca17Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassUnder 12.5 -340Model 78.2% · Market 77.3%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +280Model 21.8% · Market 26.3%Edge -4.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nb7ca17Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassOver 11.5 +208Model 27.0% · Market 32.5%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -251Model 73.0% · Market 71.5%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nb7ca17Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +266Model 30.1% · Market 27.3%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -322Model 69.9% · Market 76.3%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nb7ca17Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 5.5 -489Model 77.1% · Market 83.0%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +373Model 22.9% · Market 21.1%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nb7ca17Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +756Model 13.7% · Market 11.7%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -967Model 86.3% · Market 90.6%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66nb7ca17Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 10.5 +152Model 34.9% · Market 39.7%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -183Model 65.1% · Market 64.7%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 1.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+152 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66ne59b31Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -116Model 50.1% · Market 53.7%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +114Model 49.8% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 5.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → +114 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66ne59b31Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMinnesota Twins -107Model 50.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMinnesota Twins +109Model 47.6% · Market 47.9%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.8%-107 → +109Logit -0.154 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66ne59b31Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-10 | PassUnder 5.5 +181Model 27.7% · Market 35.6%Edge -7.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -228Model 72.3% · Market 69.5%Edge +2.8% · Full Kelly 9.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66ne59b31Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-10 | PassUnder 4.5 +351Model 17.2% · Market 22.2%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -430Model 82.8% · Market 81.1%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 9.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66ne59b31Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-10 | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 88.6% · Market 86.8%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 13.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 11.4% · Market 15.9%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66ne59b31Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-10 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 78.8% · Market 84.9%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 21.2% · Market 18.0%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66ne59b31Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-10 | PassOver 6.5 -142Model 64.2% · Market 59.2%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 13.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +129Model 35.8% · Market 44.2%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +129 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66ne59b31Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-10 | PassOver 9.5 +229Model 34.9% · Market 30.4%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -276Model 65.1% · Market 73.4%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66ne59b31Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-10 | PassUnder 10.5 -360Model 71.5% · Market 78.3%Edge -6.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +296Model 28.5% · Market 25.3%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66ne59b31Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-10 | PassUnder 8.5 -175Model 55.3% · Market 64.2%Edge -8.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +158Model 44.7% · Market 39.2%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 9.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n227cb4Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassKansas City Royals -103Model 47.5% · Market 50.7%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassKansas City Royals +119Model 47.4% · Market 45.7%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.1%-103 → +119Logit -0.204 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n227cb4Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -112Model 49.3% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +114Model 50.6% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 7.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → +114 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n227cb4Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won12-9 | PassUnder 10.5 -381Model 65.3% · Market 79.2%Edge -13.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +313Model 34.7% · Market 24.2%Edge +10.5% · Full Kelly 13.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n227cb4Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won12-9 | PassUnder 4.5 +331Model 13.7% · Market 23.2%Edge -9.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -430Model 86.3% · Market 81.1%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 27.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+331 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n227cb4Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost12-9 | PassOver 6.5 -148Model 69.9% · Market 59.7%Edge +10.2% · Full Kelly 25.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +124Model 30.1% · Market 44.6%Edge -14.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-148 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n227cb4Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost12-9 | PassOver 9.5 +238Model 41.4% · Market 30.0%Edge +11.4% · Full Kelly 16.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -265Model 58.6% · Market 73.0%Edge -14.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+238 → -265 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n227cb4Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won12-9 | PassUnder 8.5 -175Model 48.6% · Market 64.2%Edge -15.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +158Model 51.4% · Market 39.2%Edge +12.2% · Full Kelly 20.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n227cb4Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost12-9 | PassOver 3.5 -660Model 91.0% · Market 86.8%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 31.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +529Model 9.0% · Market 15.9%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n227cb4Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won12-9 | PassUnder 11.5 -564Model 73.2% · Market 84.9%Edge -11.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +456Model 26.8% · Market 18.0%Edge +8.8% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n227cb4Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won12-9 | PassUnder 12.5 -869Model 78.5% · Market 89.7%Edge -11.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +685Model 21.5% · Market 12.7%Edge +8.8% · Full Kelly 10.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66n227cb4Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won12-9 | PassUnder 5.5 +189Model 22.9% · Market 34.6%Edge -11.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -228Model 77.1% · Market 69.5%Edge +7.6% · Full Kelly 24.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n5ed816Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 49.9% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -107Model 50.6% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+109 → -107 | 4 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n5ed816Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +140Model 42.5% · Market 41.7%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +159Model 39.8% · Market 38.6%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.1%+140 → +159Logit -0.127 | 6 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n5ed816Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-8 | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.1% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -142Model 48.9% · Market 58.7%Edge -9.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -142 | 4 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n5ed816Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-8 | PassUnder 10.5 -290Model 65.6% · Market 74.4%Edge -8.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 34.4% · Market 29.4%Edge +5.0% · Full Kelly 7.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +240 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n5ed816Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-8 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 26.5% · Market 22.2%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 5.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 73.5% · Market 81.1%Edge -7.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n5ed816Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-8 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 13.7% · Market 18.0%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 86.3% · Market 85.9%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n5ed816Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-8 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 30.3% · Market 37.6%Edge -7.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 69.7% · Market 66.6%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 9.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n5ed816Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-8 | PassUnder 9.5 -200Model 58.9% · Market 67.6%Edge -8.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +181Model 41.1% · Market 35.7%Edge +5.5% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-200 → +181 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n5ed816Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-8 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 9.0% · Market 12.7%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 91.0% · Market 90.6%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n5ed816Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-8 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 78.7% · Market 85.9%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 21.3% · Market 16.9%Edge +4.3% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n5ed816Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-8 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 77.0% · Market 74.4%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 10.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 23.0% · Market 30.4%Edge -7.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-290 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n85d085Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassColorado Rockies +146Model 40.4% · Market 40.6%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassColorado Rockies +198Model 34.3% · Market 33.6%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -7.1%+146 → +198Logit -0.305 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n85d085Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.4% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 49.9% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%+101 → +109Logit -0.076 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n85d085Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-6 | PassOver 9.5 +159Model 43.5% · Market 38.7%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 8.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +165Model 43.5% · Market 38.2%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 9.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%+159 → +165Logit -0.022 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n85d085Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-6 | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 28.8% · Market 25.3%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 71.2% · Market 79.2%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n85d085Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-6 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 71.5% · Market 69.5%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 28.5% · Market 34.6%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n85d085Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-6 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 76.6% · Market 83.0%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 23.4% · Market 20.1%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 4.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n85d085Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 63.2% · Market 71.5%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 36.8% · Market 32.5%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n85d085Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-6 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 87.3% · Market 85.9%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 10.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 12.7% · Market 16.9%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n85d085Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-6 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 78.6% · Market 76.3%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 9.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 21.4% · Market 27.3%Edge -5.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n85d085Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-6 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 91.7% · Market 91.6%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 8.3% · Market 11.7%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66n85d085Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-6 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.6% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 60.8% · Market 57.3%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 9.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -131 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n53b24cStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.4% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 50.1% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%-103 → +109Logit -0.116 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n53b24cStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassAtlanta Braves -107Model 48.6% · Market 51.7%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAtlanta Braves -116Model 52.3% · Market 53.7%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.0%-107 → -116Logit 0.081 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n53b24cStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-3 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 17.3% · Market 18.0%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 82.7% · Market 84.9%Edge -2.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n53b24cStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-3 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 29.4% · Market 31.4%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 70.6% · Market 73.4%Edge -2.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+218 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n53b24cStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-3 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 65.1% · Market 67.5%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 34.9% · Market 36.6%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n53b24cStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-3 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 48.6% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 45.8% · Market 47.8%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%+101 → +109Logit -0.076 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n53b24cStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-3 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 11.0% · Market 11.7%Edge -0.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 89.0% · Market 90.6%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -967 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n53b24cStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-3 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 35.9% · Market 37.1%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 64.1% · Market 66.1%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n53b24cStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-3 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 16.5% · Market 16.9%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 83.5% · Market 85.9%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n53b24cStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-3 | PassUnder 11.5 -404Model 77.9% · Market 80.2%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +331Model 22.1% · Market 23.2%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n53b24cStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-3 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 73.1% · Market 75.4%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 26.9% · Market 28.4%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66na9dd7eStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassToronto Blue Jays -142Model 56.9% · Market 58.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassToronto Blue Jays -161Model 60.1% · Market 61.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +3.0%-142 → -161Logit 0.126 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66na9dd7eStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -121Model 50.3% · Market 54.8%Edge -4.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 49.8% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-121 → +101 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66na9dd7eStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 8.5 -142Model 52.3% · Market 59.2%Edge -6.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +124Model 47.7% · Market 44.6%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-142 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66na9dd7eStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 6.5 -183Model 66.8% · Market 65.1%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 6.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +165Model 33.2% · Market 38.7%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66na9dd7eStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 15.5% · Market 19.0%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -525Model 84.5% · Market 84.0%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66na9dd7eStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassUnder 11.5 -458Model 76.4% · Market 82.1%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +373Model 23.6% · Market 21.1%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66na9dd7eStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 74.6% · Market 73.4%Edge +1.2% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 25.4% · Market 30.4%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66na9dd7eStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 9.5 +189Model 37.7% · Market 34.6%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -228Model 62.3% · Market 69.5%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66na9dd7eStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-6 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 89.8% · Market 89.7%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 10.2% · Market 13.8%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66na9dd7eStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 68.8% · Market 75.4%Edge -6.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 31.2% · Market 28.4%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 3.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n85b174Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Yankees -154Model 59.0% · Market 60.6%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBaltimore Orioles +101Model 49.1% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-154 → +101 | 6 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nda753aStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.5% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -103Model 49.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → -103 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nda753aStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals +119Model 54.2% · Market 45.7%Edge +8.5% · Full Kelly 15.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassWashington Nationals -112Model 53.6% · Market 52.8%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +7.2%+119 → -112Logit 0.287 | 6 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nda753aStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-7 | PassUnder 9.5 -168Model 55.1% · Market 63.7%Edge -8.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +152Model 44.9% · Market 40.2%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nda753aStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 79.5% · Market 76.3%Edge +3.2% · Full Kelly 13.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 20.5% · Market 27.3%Edge -6.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nda753aStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-7 | PassUnder 4.5 +490Model 12.1% · Market 16.9%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 87.9% · Market 85.9%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 14.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nda753aStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-7 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 70.1% · Market 79.2%Edge -9.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 29.9% · Market 24.2%Edge +5.7% · Full Kelly 7.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nda753aStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-7 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 27.3% · Market 35.6%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 72.7% · Market 68.6%Edge +4.1% · Full Kelly 13.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nda753aStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 92.2% · Market 90.6%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 16.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 7.8% · Market 11.7%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nda753aStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 38.1% · Market 32.5%Edge +5.6% · Full Kelly 8.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 61.9% · Market 71.5%Edge -9.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+208 → -251 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nda753aStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-7 | PassOver 12.5 +425Model 24.4% · Market 19.0%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 6.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -525Model 75.6% · Market 84.0%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -525 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66nda753aStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-7 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 49.5% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -142Model 62.2% · Market 58.7%Edge +3.5% · Full Kelly 8.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → -142 | 7 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n140bf8Starts | MoneylinePaper Kelly tracked | Won2-0Paper stake $162 · P/L $237 | Paper betTampa Bay Rays +146Model 44.5% · Market 40.6%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 1.6% · $162 | Paper betTampa Bay Rays +146Model 44.5% · Market 40.6%Edge +3.9% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 1.6% · $162 | +0.0%+146 → +146Logit 0.000 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n140bf8Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 -112Model 49.0% · Market 52.8%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +101Model 48.8% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.1%-112 → +101Logit -0.123 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n140bf8Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-0 | PassUnder 7.5 -161Model 48.1% · Market 62.7%Edge -14.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +152Model 51.9% · Market 40.2%Edge +11.7% · Full Kelly 20.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n140bf8Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-0 | PassOver 5.5 -161Model 71.8% · Market 61.7%Edge +10.1% · Full Kelly 26.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +134Model 28.2% · Market 42.7%Edge -14.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +134 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n140bf8Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-0 | PassUnder 10.5 -525Model 72.3% · Market 84.0%Edge -11.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +425Model 27.7% · Market 19.0%Edge +8.7% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n140bf8Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-0 | PassUnder 8.5 -229Model 56.1% · Market 70.1%Edge -14.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +206Model 43.9% · Market 33.1%Edge +10.8% · Full Kelly 16.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-229 → +206 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n140bf8Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-0 | PassUnder 9.5 -381Model 65.9% · Market 79.2%Edge -13.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +313Model 34.1% · Market 24.2%Edge +9.9% · Full Kelly 13.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n140bf8Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-0 | PassUnder 4.5 +266Model 17.5% · Market 27.3%Edge -9.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -322Model 82.5% · Market 76.3%Edge +6.2% · Full Kelly 26.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -322 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n140bf8Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-0 | PassUnder 3.5 +398Model 11.7% · Market 20.1%Edge -8.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -489Model 88.3% · Market 83.0%Edge +5.3% · Full Kelly 31.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nd566fcStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers +114Model 56.1% · Market 46.7%Edge +9.4% · Full Kelly 17.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers -116Model 54.7% · Market 53.7%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +7.0%+114 → -116Logit 0.279 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nd566fcStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -107Model 50.2% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 50.2% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.8%-107 → +109Logit -0.154 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nd566fcStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-8 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 35.8% · Market 37.1%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 64.2% · Market 66.6%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nd566fcStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-8 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 11.3% · Market 10.6%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 0.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 88.7% · Market 91.6%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nd566fcStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-8 | PassOver 8.5 +119Model 44.7% · Market 46.2%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -131Model 55.3% · Market 57.3%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -131 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nd566fcStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won7-8 | PassUnder 5.5 +240Model 27.6% · Market 29.4%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 72.4% · Market 74.4%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nd566fcStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-8 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 28.4% · Market 30.4%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 71.6% · Market 73.4%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -276 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nd566fcStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-8 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 34.9% · Market 36.6%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -208Model 65.1% · Market 67.5%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nd566fcStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-8 | PassOver 12.5 +490Model 16.5% · Market 16.9%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -609Model 83.5% · Market 85.9%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nd566fcStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-8 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 83.0% · Market 84.9%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 17.0% · Market 18.0%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66nd566fcStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost7-8 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 21.2% · Market 22.2%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 78.8% · Market 81.1%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nfaaeb1Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 6.5 -116Model 51.9% · Market 53.7%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +105Model 47.8% · Market 48.8%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-116 → +105 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nfaaeb1Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBoston Red Sox -107Model 51.4% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBoston Red Sox +105Model 49.9% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 2.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%-107 → +105Logit -0.116 | 8 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nfaaeb1Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost0-2 | PassUnder 7.5 -168Model 38.6% · Market 62.7%Edge -24.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +152Model 61.4% · Market 39.7%Edge +21.7% · Full Kelly 36.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66nfaaeb1Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won0-2 | PassOver 5.5 -161Model 78.9% · Market 61.7%Edge +17.2% · Full Kelly 44.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +146Model 21.1% · Market 40.7%Edge -19.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n85b174Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +105Model 48.5% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +109Model 47.7% · Market 47.9%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%+105 → +109Logit -0.037 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n85b174Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-2 | PassOver 7.5 +146Model 59.7% · Market 40.7%Edge +19.0% · Full Kelly 32.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -161Model 40.3% · Market 61.7%Edge -21.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n85b174Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost10-2 | PassOver 5.5 -168Model 77.7% · Market 62.7%Edge +15.0% · Full Kelly 40.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +152Model 22.3% · Market 39.7%Edge -17.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-168 → +152 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66nde2828Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassNew York Yankees -137Model 58.1% · Market 57.8%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Yankees -116Model 59.1% · Market 53.7%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 11.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -4.1%-137 → -116Logit -0.167 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66n4e1476Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassChicago Cubs -112Model 48.6% · Market 52.8%Edge -4.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBoston Red Sox +101Model 49.2% · Market 49.8%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → +101 | 8 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
The published recommended-Kelly stakes roll forward from a $10,000 synthetic bankroll. Daily return measures settled profit or loss against that morning's bankroll; cumulative return compounds each day. Idle days stay flat. This chart begins on Sep 25, the first settled paper bet in the retained read model; it does not imply that earlier games were replayed.
- Current bankroll
- $10,422
- Cumulative
- +4.2%
- Best day
- +4.2%
- Worst day
- +4.2%
- Settled bets
- 3
Cumulative bankroll return
Daily bankroll return
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
+$436 · +4.4%
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 2-1
- Avg. policy Kelly
- 1.6%
Full Kelly benchmark $12,050 · tracked $436 on $495 settled paper stake · +87.9% ROI
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 15
- Both cleared
- 0
- Rate
- 0.0%