+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Baseball
Track record
Follow recorded forecasts into market comparisons and results. Open any game to revisit its original evidence. Paper returns are a separate lens; no wagers are placed.
Retained daily results
70 dates available
Jul 24, 2026Oct 1, 2026
Older source decisions are backfilled incrementally by the hourly history sync.
Game history
First look vs. latest pregame
149 games unified from 367 stored model snapshots on 2026-09-27.
Games149
Settled118
First edge-2.1%
Pregame edge-0.1%
Average CLV-2.3%
Totals CLV-2.3%
| Game | Market | Result | First recommendation | Latest pregame | CLV | Model movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n5b607dStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBaltimore Orioles +129Model 42.8% · Market 43.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Yankees -121Model 57.2% · Market 54.8%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -121 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n0554c7Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassLos Angeles Angels +140Model 38.4% · Market 41.7%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSeattle Mariners -168Model 69.2% · Market 62.7%Edge +6.5% · Full Kelly 17.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -168 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n0554c7Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 +124Model 49.8% · Market 44.6%Edge +5.2% · Full Kelly 9.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +114Model 49.3% · Market 46.7%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 4.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +2.1%+124 → +114Logit 0.084 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n0554c7Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassUnder 5.5 +159Model 31.4% · Market 38.6%Edge -7.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -199Model 68.6% · Market 66.6%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 6.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+159 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n0554c7Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 8.5 +180Model 39.8% · Market 36.2%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 6.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 -200Model 60.2% · Market 67.1%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+180 → -200 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n0554c7Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 3.5 -609Model 86.6% · Market 85.9%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 4.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +490Model 13.4% · Market 16.9%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +490 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n0554c7Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassUnder 9.5 -340Model 69.7% · Market 77.3%Edge -7.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +280Model 30.3% · Market 26.3%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n0554c7Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassOver 10.5 +351Model 24.3% · Market 22.2%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 2.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -430Model 75.7% · Market 81.1%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+351 → -430 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n0554c7Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 4.5 -381Model 80.1% · Market 79.2%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 4.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +296Model 19.9% · Market 25.3%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +296 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n0554c7Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 7.5 +101Model 48.5% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -142Model 52.3% · Market 59.2%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+101 → -142 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Marinersevt_129ymh66n0554c7Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassUnder 11.5 -719Model 82.3% · Market 87.8%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +574Model 17.7% · Market 14.8%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-719 → +574 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4958d7Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 +114Model 50.1% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.4% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +114Model 50.1% · Market 46.7%Edge +3.3% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+114 → +114Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4958d7Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSt. Louis Cardinals +173Model 38.1% · Market 36.6%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassMilwaukee Brewers -208Model 69.0% · Market 67.5%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -208 | 4 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4958d7Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 8.5 -183Model 53.1% · Market 65.1%Edge -12.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +165Model 46.9% · Market 38.2%Edge +8.7% · Full Kelly 14.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-183 → +165 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4958d7Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -404Model 69.5% · Market 80.2%Edge -10.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +331Model 30.5% · Market 23.2%Edge +7.3% · Full Kelly 9.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-404 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4958d7Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +105Model 48.7% · Market 48.8%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +134Model 33.9% · Market 43.2%Edge -9.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.6%+105 → +134Logit -0.225 | 5 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4958d7Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassOver 5.5 -208Model 74.0% · Market 67.5%Edge +6.5% · Full Kelly 20.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +173Model 26.0% · Market 36.6%Edge -10.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4958d7Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassOver 11.5 +490Model 23.1% · Market 16.9%Edge +6.1% · Full Kelly 7.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -609Model 76.9% · Market 85.9%Edge -9.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+490 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4958d7Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassOver 9.5 +229Model 37.0% · Market 30.4%Edge +6.6% · Full Kelly 9.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -290Model 63.0% · Market 74.4%Edge -11.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4958d7Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +313Model 15.9% · Market 24.2%Edge -8.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -404Model 84.1% · Market 80.2%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 20.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -404 | 2 decision snapshots |
| St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewersevt_129ymh66n4958d7Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassOver 3.5 -609Model 89.5% · Market 85.9%Edge +3.6% · Full Kelly 25.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +456Model 10.5% · Market 18.0%Edge -7.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n75c401Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMiami Marlins +105Model 51.8% · Market 48.8%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 5.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAtlanta Braves +105Model 51.0% · Market 48.8%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 4.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+105 → +105 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n75c401Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 47.9% · Market 47.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 50.3% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+109 → +109Logit 0.000 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n75c401Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassOver 10.5 +218Model 28.0% · Market 31.5%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +226Model 28.0% · Market 31.1%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%+218 → +226Logit -0.023 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n75c401Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 51.2% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 44.2% · Market 47.3%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → +114 | 5 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n75c401Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassOver 9.5 +159Model 34.4% · Market 38.7%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 65.6% · Market 64.6%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+159 → -175 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n75c401Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassOver 5.5 -322Model 71.9% · Market 76.3%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 28.1% · Market 27.3%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 1.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-322 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n75c401Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 11.6% · Market 11.7%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 88.4% · Market 91.6%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n75c401Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 79.2% · Market 79.2%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 20.8% · Market 24.2%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-381 → +313 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n75c401Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 17.4% · Market 18.0%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 82.6% · Market 86.8%Edge -4.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n75c401Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-5 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 63.7% · Market 69.5%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 36.3% · Market 34.6%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-228 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlinsevt_129ymh66n75c401Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-5 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 16.2% · Market 20.1%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 83.8% · Market 83.0%Edge +0.8% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n81c4a4Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 50.1% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +105Model 49.8% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.9%+109 → +105Logit 0.037 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n81c4a4Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassDetroit Tigers +101Model 54.5% · Market 49.8%Edge +4.8% · Full Kelly 9.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassDetroit Tigers -116Model 56.0% · Market 53.7%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +4.0%+101 → -116Logit 0.158 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n81c4a4Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 76.0% · Market 81.1%Edge -5.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 24.0% · Market 22.2%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 2.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n81c4a4Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 10.0% · Market 12.7%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -869Model 90.0% · Market 89.7%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 2.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+685 → -869 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n81c4a4Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassUnder 5.5 +229Model 25.1% · Market 30.4%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -290Model 74.9% · Market 74.4%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 2.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+229 → -290 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n81c4a4Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassOver 10.5 +240Model 31.6% · Market 29.4%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 3.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -306Model 68.4% · Market 75.4%Edge -7.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+240 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n81c4a4Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 19.0% · Market 18.0%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 81.0% · Market 84.9%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n81c4a4Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 15.2% · Market 19.0%Edge -3.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 84.8% · Market 84.9%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n81c4a4Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-2 | PassOver 9.5 +188Model 38.2% · Market 35.2%Edge +3.0% · Full Kelly 5.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -209Model 61.8% · Market 68.1%Edge -6.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+188 → -209 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n81c4a4Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 48.8% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +124Model 48.1% · Market 45.7%Edge +2.5% · Full Kelly 6.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -6.0%-107 → +124Logit -0.241 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigersevt_129ymh66n81c4a4Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +166Model 32.8% · Market 37.6%Edge -4.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -199Model 67.2% · Market 66.6%Edge +0.7% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+166 → -199 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n96f3e2Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Diego Padres -137Model 56.6% · Market 57.8%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Diego Padres +129Model 48.1% · Market 43.7%Edge +4.5% · Full Kelly 7.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -14.1%-137 → +129Logit -0.570 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n96f3e2Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.9% · Market 50.7%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +109Model 50.5% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.7% · Full Kelly 5.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%-103 → +109Logit -0.116 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n96f3e2Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-9 | PassOver 6.5 -208Model 61.3% · Market 67.5%Edge -6.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +173Model 38.7% · Market 36.6%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 3.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n96f3e2Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-9 | PassOver 5.5 -306Model 69.8% · Market 75.4%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +252Model 30.2% · Market 28.4%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 2.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n96f3e2Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-9 | PassUnder 12.5 -564Model 85.5% · Market 84.9%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +456Model 14.5% · Market 18.0%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-564 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n96f3e2Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-9 | PassUnder 10.5 -276Model 74.3% · Market 73.4%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 3.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +229Model 25.7% · Market 30.4%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n96f3e2Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-9 | PassOver 8.5 -103Model 48.0% · Market 50.7%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +114Model 41.6% · Market 47.3%Edge -5.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.5%-103 → +114Logit -0.138 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n96f3e2Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-9 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 81.0% · Market 85.9%Edge -4.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 19.0% · Market 18.0%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-609 → +456 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n96f3e2Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-9 | PassOver 9.5 +173Model 31.9% · Market 37.1%Edge -5.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -191Model 68.1% · Market 66.1%Edge +2.0% · Full Kelly 7.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n96f3e2Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-9 | PassUnder 11.5 -430Model 81.2% · Market 81.1%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +351Model 18.8% · Market 22.2%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +351 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padresevt_129ymh66n96f3e2Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-9 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 87.3% · Market 90.6%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +685Model 12.7% · Market 12.7%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na50cfeStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -112Model 50.7% · Market 52.8%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.4% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.6% · Full Kelly 1.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → +105 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na50cfeStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassColorado Rockies +146Model 41.6% · Market 40.6%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassChicago White Sox -161Model 60.5% · Market 61.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+146 → -161 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na50cfeStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassOver 5.5 -360Model 75.7% · Market 78.3%Edge -2.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +280Model 24.3% · Market 26.3%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-360 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na50cfeStarts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 80.2% · Market 82.1%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 19.8% · Market 21.1%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na50cfeStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 14.7% · Market 15.9%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 85.3% · Market 86.8%Edge -1.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na50cfeStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 9.6% · Market 9.6%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 90.4% · Market 92.5%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+945 → -1236 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na50cfeStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 56.9% · Market 57.7%Edge -0.8% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 43.1% · Market 45.7%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +119 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na50cfeStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 31.9% · Market 34.6%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 68.1% · Market 69.5%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na50cfeStarts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 13.5 +574Model 14.2% · Market 14.8%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -719Model 85.8% · Market 87.8%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -719 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na50cfeStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 9.5 +165Model 39.2% · Market 38.7%Edge +0.5% · Full Kelly 2.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -183Model 60.8% · Market 64.7%Edge -3.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+165 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na50cfeStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-4 | PassOver 11.5 +296Model 24.9% · Market 25.3%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -360Model 75.1% · Market 78.3%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+296 → -360 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Soxevt_129ymh66na50cfeStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-4 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 67.4% · Market 70.5%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 32.6% · Market 33.6%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nabfef2Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 50.3% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +109Model 50.4% · Market 47.9%Edge +2.6% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -3.8%-107 → +109Logit -0.154 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nabfef2Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassKansas City Royals +119Model 48.6% · Market 45.7%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 5.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassCleveland Guardians -107Model 53.8% · Market 51.7%Edge +2.1% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+119 → -107 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nabfef2Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 52.1% · Market 64.2%Edge -12.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 47.7% · Market 39.2%Edge +8.5% · Full Kelly 14.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nabfef2Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 6.5 +189Model 25.1% · Market 34.6%Edge -9.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -228Model 74.9% · Market 69.5%Edge +5.4% · Full Kelly 17.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+189 → -228 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nabfef2Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 81.3% · Market 77.3%Edge +4.0% · Full Kelly 17.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 18.7% · Market 27.3%Edge -8.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nabfef2Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 11.5 +313Model 32.7% · Market 24.2%Edge +8.5% · Full Kelly 11.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -381Model 67.3% · Market 79.2%Edge -12.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nabfef2Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 58.9% · Market 71.5%Edge -12.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 41.1% · Market 32.5%Edge +8.7% · Full Kelly 12.8%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nabfef2Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassUnder 12.5 -489Model 72.9% · Market 83.0%Edge -10.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +398Model 27.1% · Market 20.1%Edge +7.0% · Full Kelly 8.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nabfef2Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassUnder 3.5 +841Model 7.0% · Market 10.6%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 93.0% · Market 91.6%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 17.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+841 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nabfef2Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost2-3 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 89.1% · Market 86.8%Edge +2.3% · Full Kelly 17.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 10.9% · Market 15.9%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royalsevt_129ymh66nabfef2Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won2-3 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 64.9% · Market 57.3%Edge +7.7% · Full Kelly 19.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 35.1% · Market 46.2%Edge -11.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +119 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66ne35139Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassMinnesota Twins -107Model 50.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTexas Rangers -116Model 52.0% · Market 53.7%Edge -1.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → -116 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66ne35139Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.5% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +105Model 49.0% · Market 48.8%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 0.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%-107 → +105Logit -0.116 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66ne35139Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 54.6% · Market 57.8%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -131Model 54.6% · Market 57.3%Edge -2.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.5%-137 → -131Logit -0.022 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66ne35139Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 6.5 +181Model 34.0% · Market 35.6%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -218Model 66.0% · Market 68.6%Edge -2.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+181 → -218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66ne35139Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 18.0% · Market 21.1%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 82.0% · Market 82.1%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66ne35139Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassOver 11.5 +280Model 22.9% · Market 26.3%Edge -3.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 77.1% · Market 77.3%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66ne35139Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 26.2% · Market 27.3%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 73.8% · Market 77.3%Edge -3.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+266 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66ne35139Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 63.1% · Market 64.2%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 36.9% · Market 39.2%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66ne35139Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 89.4% · Market 91.6%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 10.6% · Market 11.7%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-1087 → +756 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66ne35139Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 4.5 +456Model 16.0% · Market 18.0%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -609Model 84.0% · Market 85.9%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+456 → -609 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twinsevt_129ymh66ne35139Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassUnder 10.5 -251Model 69.7% · Market 71.5%Edge -1.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +208Model 30.3% · Market 32.5%Edge -2.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66ne5d418Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 50.4% · Market 51.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 8.5 +105Model 50.6% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -2.9%-107 → +105Logit -0.116 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66ne5d418Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassCincinnati Reds +140Model 43.2% · Market 41.7%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 2.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassToronto Blue Jays -168Model 61.1% · Market 62.7%Edge -1.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -168 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66ne5d418Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-5 | PassUnder 10.5 -208Model 67.1% · Market 67.5%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +173Model 32.9% · Market 36.6%Edge -3.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-208 → +173 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66ne5d418Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-5 | PassOver 11.5 +252Model 25.2% · Market 28.4%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -306Model 74.8% · Market 75.4%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -306 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66ne5d418Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-5 | PassUnder 4.5 +574Model 14.5% · Market 14.8%Edge -0.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -788Model 85.5% · Market 88.7%Edge -3.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+574 → -788 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66ne5d418Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost1-5 | PassUnder 12.5 -430Model 79.9% · Market 81.1%Edge -1.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +331Model 20.1% · Market 23.2%Edge -3.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-430 → +331 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66ne5d418Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-5 | PassOver 7.5 -161Model 57.2% · Market 62.2%Edge -5.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +146Model 42.8% · Market 41.7%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 3.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66ne5d418Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-5 | PassUnder 5.5 +313Model 24.1% · Market 24.2%Edge -0.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -381Model 75.9% · Market 79.2%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+313 → -381 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66ne5d418Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-5 | PassUnder 3.5 +945Model 9.5% · Market 9.6%Edge -0.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1236Model 90.5% · Market 92.5%Edge -2.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+945 → -1236 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66ne5d418Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-5 | PassOver 9.5 +134Model 39.6% · Market 43.2%Edge -3.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -148Model 60.4% · Market 60.2%Edge +0.3% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+134 → -148 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jaysevt_129ymh66ne5d418Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won1-5 | PassOver 6.5 -263Model 68.4% · Market 72.5%Edge -4.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +218Model 31.6% · Market 31.4%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-263 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n09569dStarts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassPhiladelphia Phillies -131Model 55.4% · Market 56.7%Edge -1.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassTampa Bay Rays +166Model 44.7% · Market 37.6%Edge +7.1% · Full Kelly 11.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-131 → +166 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n09569dStarts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 6.5 -103Model 48.9% · Market 50.7%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 +101Model 51.5% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 3.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-103 → +101 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n09569dStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassOver 7.5 +105Model 49.8% · Market 48.8%Edge +1.0% · Full Kelly 2.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 +165Model 53.5% · Market 38.2%Edge +15.3% · Full Kelly 25.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -10.6%+105 → +165Logit -0.433 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n1b7148Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 10.5 -116Model 52.8% · Market 53.7%Edge -0.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -112Model 52.8% · Market 52.8%Edge -0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -0.9%-116 → -112Logit -0.035 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n1b7148Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassHouston Astros -126Model 53.4% · Market 55.8%Edge -2.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassAthletics +166Model 43.9% · Market 37.6%Edge +6.3% · Full Kelly 10.1%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-126 → +166 | 6 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n1b7148Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-0 | PassOver 3.5 -2580Model 90.5% · Market 96.3%Edge -5.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +1775Model 9.5% · Market 5.3%Edge +4.2% · Full Kelly 4.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-2580 → +1775 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n1b7148Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-0 | PassOver 6.5 -458Model 68.4% · Market 82.1%Edge -13.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +373Model 31.6% · Market 21.1%Edge +10.4% · Full Kelly 13.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-458 → +373 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n1b7148Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-0 | PassUnder 9.5 -121Model 51.9% · Market 54.8%Edge -2.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 +124Model 60.3% · Market 45.7%Edge +14.7% · Full Kelly 28.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -9.1%-121 → +124Logit -0.364 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n1b7148Starts | TotalOpening line 13.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-0 | PassOver 13.5 +280Model 14.5% · Market 26.3%Edge -11.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 13.5 -340Model 85.5% · Market 77.3%Edge +8.3% · Full Kelly 36.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+280 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n1b7148Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-0 | PassUnder 12.5 -239Model 79.9% · Market 70.5%Edge +9.4% · Full Kelly 31.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 12.5 +198Model 20.1% · Market 33.6%Edge -13.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-239 → +198 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n1b7148Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-0 | PassOver 7.5 -276Model 57.3% · Market 73.4%Edge -16.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +229Model 42.7% · Market 30.4%Edge +12.3% · Full Kelly 17.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +229 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n1b7148Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-0 | PassOver 11.5 +159Model 25.2% · Market 38.6%Edge -13.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 11.5 -191Model 74.8% · Market 65.6%Edge +9.1% · Full Kelly 26.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+159 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n1b7148Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-0 | PassUnder 4.5 +945Model 14.5% · Market 9.6%Edge +4.9% · Full Kelly 5.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -1428Model 85.5% · Market 93.5%Edge -8.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+945 → -1428 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n1b7148Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost9-0 | PassOver 5.5 -660Model 75.9% · Market 86.8%Edge -10.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +529Model 24.1% · Market 15.9%Edge +8.2% · Full Kelly 9.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-660 → +529 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Houston Astros at Athleticsevt_129ymh66n1b7148Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won9-0 | PassUnder 8.5 +173Model 50.4% · Market 37.1%Edge +13.3% · Full Kelly 21.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 -191Model 49.6% · Market 66.1%Edge -16.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+173 → -191 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n643de2Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 48.6% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 48.7% · Market 49.8%Edge -1.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%+101 → +101Logit 0.000 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n643de2Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassSan Francisco Giants +198Model 46.8% · Market 33.6%Edge +13.2% · Full Kelly 19.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassSan Francisco Giants +208Model 36.9% · Market 32.5%Edge +4.4% · Full Kelly 6.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.1%+198 → +208Logit -0.049 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n643de2Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassOver 10.5 +198Model 28.1% · Market 33.6%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -239Model 71.9% · Market 70.5%Edge +1.4% · Full Kelly 4.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+198 → -239 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n643de2Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-1 | PassUnder 11.5 -340Model 79.0% · Market 77.3%Edge +1.7% · Full Kelly 7.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +280Model 21.0% · Market 26.3%Edge -5.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +280 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n643de2Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassUnder 3.5 +756Model 11.7% · Market 11.7%Edge +0.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -1087Model 88.3% · Market 91.6%Edge -3.3% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+756 → -1087 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n643de2Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-1 | PassOver 5.5 -340Model 71.8% · Market 77.3%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +266Model 28.2% · Market 27.3%Edge +0.9% · Full Kelly 1.2%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-340 → +266 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n643de2Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassOver 6.5 -219Model 63.7% · Market 69.1%Edge -5.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 6.5 +197Model 36.3% · Market 34.1%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-219 → +197 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n643de2Starts | TotalOpening line 12.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassOver 12.5 +373Model 16.4% · Market 21.1%Edge -4.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 12.5 -458Model 83.6% · Market 82.1%Edge +1.5% · Full Kelly 8.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+373 → -458 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n643de2Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassUnder 4.5 +529Model 17.5% · Market 15.9%Edge +1.6% · Full Kelly 1.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -660Model 82.5% · Market 86.8%Edge -4.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+529 → -660 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n643de2Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost5-1 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 65.5% · Market 63.6%Edge +1.8% · Full Kelly 5.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +146Model 34.5% · Market 40.7%Edge -6.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giantsevt_129ymh66n643de2Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won5-1 | PassUnder 7.5 -103Model 50.3% · Market 50.7%Edge -0.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +119Model 47.8% · Market 45.7%Edge +2.2% · Full Kelly 4.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -5.1%-103 → +119Logit -0.204 | 4 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66na05242Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassWashington Nationals -112Model 53.0% · Market 52.8%Edge +0.2% · Full Kelly 0.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassNew York Mets -116Model 53.1% · Market 53.7%Edge -0.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-112 → -116 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66na854e9Starts | MoneylineDecision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassBoston Red Sox +105Model 51.7% · Market 48.8%Edge +2.9% · Full Kelly 5.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassBoston Red Sox +101Model 51.7% · Market 49.8%Edge +1.9% · Full Kelly 3.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +1.0%+105 → +101Logit 0.039 | 3 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66na854e9Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 7.5 -112Model 50.9% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 7.5 -112Model 50.9% · Market 52.8%Edge -1.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +0.0%-112 → -112Logit 0.000 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66na854e9Starts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassOver 3.5 -967Model 91.7% · Market 90.6%Edge +1.1% · Full Kelly 12.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 3.5 +625Model 8.3% · Market 13.8%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-967 → +625 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66na854e9Starts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 4.5 +425Model 12.7% · Market 19.0%Edge -6.4% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 4.5 -564Model 87.3% · Market 84.9%Edge +2.4% · Full Kelly 15.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+425 → -564 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66na854e9Starts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassUnder 11.5 -489Model 71.4% · Market 83.0%Edge -11.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +398Model 28.6% · Market 20.1%Edge +8.5% · Full Kelly 10.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-489 → +398 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66na854e9Starts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassOver 5.5 -276Model 78.5% · Market 73.4%Edge +5.1% · Full Kelly 19.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 5.5 +218Model 21.5% · Market 31.4%Edge -10.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-276 → +218 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66na854e9Starts | TotalOpening line 6.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassUnder 6.5 +140Model 28.4% · Market 41.7%Edge -13.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 6.5 -183Model 71.6% · Market 64.7%Edge +6.9% · Full Kelly 19.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+140 → -183 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66na854e9Starts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won6-2 | PassOver 10.5 +252Model 36.7% · Market 28.4%Edge +8.3% · Full Kelly 11.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 10.5 -340Model 63.3% · Market 77.3%Edge -14.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+252 → -340 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66na854e9Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassUnder 9.5 -251Model 56.5% · Market 71.5%Edge -15.0% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +189Model 43.5% · Market 34.6%Edge +8.8% · Full Kelly 13.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-251 → +189 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Soxevt_129ymh66na854e9Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost6-2 | PassUnder 8.5 -161Model 46.6% · Market 61.7%Edge -15.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +124Model 53.4% · Market 44.6%Edge +8.8% · Full Kelly 15.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-161 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n09569dStarts | TotalOpening line 11.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassUnder 11.5 -869Model 78.1% · Market 89.7%Edge -11.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 11.5 +685Model 21.9% · Market 12.7%Edge +9.2% · Full Kelly 10.5%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-869 → +685 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n09569dStarts | TotalOpening line 3.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassUnder 3.5 +398Model 11.0% · Market 20.1%Edge -9.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 3.5 -489Model 89.0% · Market 83.0%Edge +6.0% · Full Kelly 35.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+398 → -489 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n09569dStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassUnder 8.5 -229Model 54.4% · Market 70.6%Edge -16.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +208Model 45.6% · Market 32.6%Edge +13.0% · Full Kelly 19.4%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-229 → +208 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n09569dStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 9.5 +344Model 35.7% · Market 22.9%Edge +12.9% · Full Kelly 17.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 9.5 -388Model 64.3% · Market 79.8%Edge -15.6% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+344 → -388 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n09569dStarts | TotalOpening line 4.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassOver 4.5 -306Model 83.4% · Market 75.4%Edge +8.1% · Full Kelly 32.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 4.5 +252Model 16.6% · Market 28.4%Edge -11.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-306 → +252 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n09569dStarts | TotalOpening line 5.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won3-7 | PassUnder 5.5 +129Model 26.9% · Market 43.7%Edge -16.7% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 5.5 -161Model 73.1% · Market 61.7%Edge +11.4% · Full Kelly 29.7%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed+129 → -161 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Philliesevt_129ymh66n09569dStarts | TotalOpening line 10.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost3-7 | PassUnder 10.5 -525Model 70.8% · Market 84.0%Edge -13.2% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 10.5 +425Model 29.2% · Market 19.0%Edge +10.2% · Full Kelly 12.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-525 → +425 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n5b607dStarts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 8.5 -107Model 51.2% · Market 51.7%Edge -0.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +146Model 49.0% · Market 40.6%Edge +8.3% · Full Kelly 14.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-107 → +146 | 2 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n5b607dStarts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 7.5 +101Model 50.2% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.4% · Full Kelly 0.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 -121Model 45.9% · Market 54.8%Edge -8.8% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | +5.0%+101 → -121Logit 0.201 | 4 decision snapshots |
| Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankeesevt_129ymh66n5b607dStarts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassUnder 9.5 -240Model 63.6% · Market 70.6%Edge -6.9% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +216Model 36.4% · Market 31.6%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 6.9%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-240 → +216 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66na05242Starts | TotalOpening line 8.5Decision tracked · no bet | PendingAwaiting final | PassOver 8.5 -107Model 49.6% · Market 51.7%Edge -2.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 8.5 +101Model 49.9% · Market 49.8%Edge +0.1% · Full Kelly 0.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | -1.9%-107 → +101Logit -0.078 | 3 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66na05242Starts | TotalOpening line 9.5Decision tracked · no bet | Won4-6 | PassUnder 9.5 -175Model 56.6% · Market 63.6%Edge -7.1% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassOver 9.5 +158Model 43.4% · Market 38.8%Edge +4.7% · Full Kelly 7.6%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-175 → +158 | 2 decision snapshots |
| New York Mets at Washington Nationalsevt_129ymh66na05242Starts | TotalOpening line 7.5Decision tracked · no bet | Lost4-6 | PassOver 7.5 -137Model 60.9% · Market 57.8%Edge +3.1% · Full Kelly 7.3%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | PassUnder 7.5 +124Model 39.1% · Market 44.6%Edge -5.5% · Full Kelly 0.0%Policy Kelly 0.0% · $0 | Selection / line changed-137 → +124 | 2 decision snapshots |
Paper portfolio & staking results
Paper Bankroll
Daily and cumulative return
No settled paper bets are available yet. The trend begins after the first recommended stake is graded.
Kelly Performance
Recommended Kelly bets by market
This is a strategy comparison, not a second cumulative-return chart. The chart above follows the one published paper bankroll through time. Here, each market/checkpoint starts its own $10,000 bankroll so opening vs. pregame and policy Kelly vs. full Kelly can be compared on equal footing. No wagers are placed.
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
+$0 · +0.0%
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Avg. policy Kelly
- -
Full Kelly benchmark $10,000 · tracked $0 on $0 settled paper stake
Portfolio risk · correlated moneyline and totals exposure
This measures how often both markets clear the 5.0% edge gate on the same game. It is a concentration diagnostic for the paper portfolio, not a model quality score.
- Both markets priced
- 15
- Both cleared
- 1
- Rate
- 6.7%